Climate Change:

What is Happening and What we can do …

International Environmental Policy

Hari SrinivasRoom: I-312 / 079-565-7406

BACKGROUNDIntroduction to Climate Change

> Human activities are releasing greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere.

> Climate change is a global issue: 1 tCO2 emitted in India = 1 tCO2 emitted in USA.

> Rising levels of greenhouse gases are already changing the climate.

> Climate models predict the global temperature will rise by about 1,4 to 5,8 degrees by 2100.

> Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on the global environment, economy and society.

A few basic facts

BACKGROUNDTemperature trends (1976 to 2000)

BACKGROUNDPrecipitation trends (1900 to 2000)

BACKGROUNDClimate change tends by 2100

Source : IPCC/SRESA2

5 degrees = What separates us from the last glacial era (-15 000 BC)

Models’ forecasts : +1,4 to +5,8 degrees by 2100.

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATIONS

CLIMATE CHANGEVisual impact of Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGEImpact of Climate Change on society

Climate change will cause heavier tropical cyclones.

…Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma…

CLIMATE CHANGECost of extreme weather events

CLIMATE CHANGECO2 emissions from industrial process

CLIMATE CHANGECO2 emissions from land use change

CLIMATE CHANGELess visual but with major impact

> Temperature increase> Sea level rise> More rain

Agriculture and food securityCrop yields, irrigation demands...

ForestComposition, health and productivity...

Water resourcesWater supply, water quality...

Coastal areas Erosion, inundation, cost of prevention...

Species and natural areasBiodiversity, modification of ecosystems...

Human healthInfectious diseases, human settlements...

Consequences of climate change:

UNFCCCOverview of UNFCCC

A global legal instrument (international agreement) on the control and management of greenhouse gases (GHG).

Adopted in 1992, entered into force in 1994.

Status of participation: 189 Parties.

Contains 2 annexes: Annex 1: countries with obligations to take measures to mitigate the effects of climate change Annex 2: countries with obligations to provide financing to developing countries for their obligations under UNFCC

Affiliated instruments: Kyoto Protocol.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNFCCCOverall goal and objectives

What is the overall goal?

“ to protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of mankind. ”

What are the further objectives?

“ to achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. ”

UNFCCCMeans to achieve the objectives

> Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors and development of new and renewable energy forms/sources.

> Protection of sinks and reservoirs of GHGs.

> Limitation and reduction of transport and waste management-related emissions.

> Policy changes toward elimination of market imperfections and implementation of market-based instruments, and policy reform to support GHG limits and reductions.

What can be done to protect the climate system?

UNFCCCInstitutional framework

UNFCCCNational level actors

National UNFCCC focal points

> Responsible for the Government’s interaction and communication with UNFCCC.

> Usually a specific ministry / department.

> Usually interacting with a wide range of other organizations / stakeholders at the national level.

UNFCCCMarket-based instruments

Kyoto Protocol characteristics

> Commits Annex 1 countries to reduce GHG emissions by 5.2% by 2012 compared to 1990.

> Actual commitment period: 2008 - 2012.

> Individual goals for each country.

3 mechanisms to help countries to reach their commitments

> ETS - Emissions Trading System

> CDM - Clean Development Mechanism (session 5)

> JI - Join Implementation (session 6)

6 greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs, SF6.

UNFCCCRatification of the Kyoto protocol

Signed and ratifiedSigned, ratification pendingSigned, ratification declinedNo position

KYOTO PROTOCOLEmissions’ evolution in Annex1 (2003)

Decreased emissions in 2003(1990 baseline)

Increased emissions in 2003(1990 baseline)

KYOTO PROTOCOLSectors concerned

Energy supply (24 to 48% of total GHG)

> Fuel combustion (energy production, manufacturing, transport, etc.)> Fugitive emissions (oil and natural gas, solid fuels, etc.)

Industrial processes (5 to 36% of total GHG)

> Production (metal production, mineral products, chemical industry etc.)> Consumption (halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride, solvents etc.)

Waste management (primarily CH4)

> Solid waste disposal on land, incineration, wastewater handling etc.

Land use (0,3 to 9% of total GHG)> Agriculture (enteric fermentation, manure management, rice cultivation, agricultural soils, prescribed burning of savannas, field burning of agricultural residues, etc.)> Forestry.

KYOTO PROTOCOL“Flexible mechanisms”

ETS - Emissions Trading System> Can be used as supplementary to actions to meet reduction commitments.

> One AAU (Assigned Amount Units) represents the tradable right to emit one tonne CO2eq.

CDM - Clean Development Mechanism> Allows public or private entities to invest in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigating activities in developing countries.

> CERs (Certified Emission Reductions) can be used by the project investor to meet its own commitments, or sold on the open market.

JI - Joint Implementation> Emission reduction projects implemented jointly between Annex I countries (developed countries and transition economies).

> ERUs (Emission Reduction Units) can be used by the project investor to meet its own commitments, or sold on the open market.

KYOTO PROTOCOLCO2 market mechanisms

Limitations of CO2 emissions in developed countries (Annex I)

4 options for companies

1. Pay expensive fines.

2. Carry out carbon reduction through processes improvement.

3. Buy emissions credits on the CO2 market (ETS).

4. Carry out carbon reduction through technology transfers in CDM or JI project.

KYOTO PROTOCOLKey Opportunities for industries

In Developing Countries (part of Annex 2): No national GHG reduction commitments but opportunity to host CDM projects, thereby benefiting from associated investments, technology transfer and transfer of know-how.

In Economies in Transition (part of Annex 1):JI present an opportunity for these countries with “emission reductions to spare” to attract investments and technology transfer.

What are the main opportunities for industrie?

> Technology transfer to improve process and energy efficiency

> Co-finance investments by selling emission credits

> Prepare for future commitments (after 2012)

> Achieve sustainable development

KYOTO PROTOCOLAssistance at national level

> National reporting of GHG emissions;

> Sources of technical assistance;

> Training and technology transfer;

> Ensuring compliance: penalties for not meeting reduction targets (Annex B countries [Kyoto]):

“ For every 1 ton of CO2 emissions of non-compliance during the first implementation period, 1.3 must be reduced during the following implementation period.”

What can be done at the national level?

KYOTO PROTOCOL

1. Enabling activities - overcoming barriers> work with government> work with industry

2. Kyoto Protocol implementation

> work with JI or CDM projects as project partner/proponent

3. Function as a verification agency (DOE)

> auditing and on-going verification

Assistance at national level

> Public sector awareness and education

> Policy advice related to industries’ needs to enable JI/CDM projects, in co-ordination with National CDM authority.

> Build relationship with National JI/CDM authority:

- co-operation on awareness-raising, workshops;

- co-operation with policy advice to government;

- co-operation with pilot studies, projects.

How can we work with governments ?

KYOTO PROTOCOLAssistance at national level

> Private sector awareness and education workshops.

> Continued emphasis on energy efficiency in relevant sectors including GHG measurements:

- renewable energy sources

- energy conversion and recovery

- new energy efficient processes

- technology transfer for non-energy-related GHG reductions

> Develop projects with industry:

- integrate greenhouse gas calculations into in-plant assessments;

- transfer investment financing knowledge toward climate related project development

How can we work with industry ?

KYOTO PROTOCOLAssistance at national level

Policy advice on industry’sneeds to enable JI/CDM.

With national focal point (NFP), develop projects for funding

Engage in technology needs assessments project with NFP.

Propose JI/CDM projects.

Raise awareness of JI/CDM opportunities among local key industries and partners.

Assistance in formulation of National Implementation Plans

(GHG inventories, needs, etc.).

KYOTO PROTOCOLSynthesis