Mr. Buckland

December 5, 2012

Global Studies

1. Climate change basics

2. The international arena

3. The national arena

4. Predictions and consequences

PLAN

Earth’s global average temperature has increased by

nearly .8°Celsius over the last 100 years because of

increased concentrations of CO2 and other

greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Human

activity is directly and indirectly responsible for the

release of these GHGs. The primary drivers are

combustion of fossil fuels followed by deforestation,

gases released from landfills, fugitive emissions,

agriculture, and other minor sources. We are warming

the planet. If we continue these habits, the most

credible scientists and scientific organizations in the

world agree we will warm Earth by 4°Celsius.

200 years of scientists Greenhouse Effect

1824 Fourier describes the

greenhouse effect.

1859 Tyndall discovers

CO2 greenhouse property

Arrhenius determines

raising atmospheric

concentration of CO2 will

raise global average

temperature.

These basic findings

enable heat-seeking

missiles to work

Two mile time machine:

Paleoclimatic data from ice

cores

Instrumental records since 1880

We can read the carbon fingerprint of CO2 and determine its source.

Human activity adds ~27 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere per year.

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, we have added raised CO2

concentrations by about 30% (280 ppm to 392 ppm).

Mt. PinatuboGraph showing Pinatubo’s effect on temperature

Rising Sea Levels

Glacial, Ice Cap, & Sea Ice Retreat

Heat Waves

Storms and Floods

Droughts

Disease and Pests

Economic Disruption

Conflict and War

Biodiversity Loss

Ecosystem Collapse

The U.S. is about to register the warmest year

on record in the lower 48 states, and the

world its ninth-hottest, a United Nations

agency said in a report, adding new urgency

to the quest to control global warming.

Two-thirds of the U.S. states suffered drought

this year, while heat waves hit across

Europe and in Morocco, Jordan, China and

Russia, the World Meteorological

Organization said in a report released in

Doha, where UN climate talks began this

week. It noted Arctic sea ice shrank to its

smallest on record.

“The alarming rate of its melt this year

highlighted the far reaching changes taking

place on Earth’s oceans and biosphere,”

WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud

said in a statement. “Climate change is

taking place before our eyes and will

continue to do so as a result of the

concentrations of greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere, which have risen constantly

and again reached new records.”

National Policy Action and Obstruction

International Policy Action and Obstruction

1988: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization for the purpose of assessing “the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.

Like the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the IPCC is meant to inform policy makers about the scientific understanding and real-world implications of climate change.

The IPCC has no policy-making authority.

International Stage: United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate

Change

Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 resulted in the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which now has 195 parties.

Its goal was to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

Set up the annual Conference of Parties (COP) meetings

1997: Kyoto Protocol negotiated that signatory nations will reduce their annual GHG emissions 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2020.

Its mechanisms were decided in 2001 via the Maracesh Accords.

Became binding in 2005. Only 37 countries and the

EU ratified it, accounting for 25% of global emissions. Three withdrew – Canada, Russia, and Japan.

In 2002, the German

Bundestag unanimously

ratified Kyoto.

Germany has reduced its

GHG emissions 22.4%

below 1990 levels.

Ambitious renewable

energy goals through

wind and solar

installation – 20%

renewable energy by

2020.

November, 26 to December, 7 2012 COP18Stated goal: To ensure that the sum of parties’ commitments will keep us on a pathway where it is still possible to hold temperature increase at 2 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels by the end of the century? The closing of the Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-term

Cooperative Action Agreement on a second commitment period of the Kyoto

Protocol: European Union, Australia, and Switzerland Advancement of a work plan for the Durban Platform for

Enhanced Action

Fuel efficiency standards

Conversion of coal-fired

power plants to natural

gas

Increased development

of renewable energy

Green Building Initiative

Programs will reduce

U.S. GHG by 3-4% from

1990 levels by 2020.

"While climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world."

"Although they produce distinct types of challenges, climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked…[and] extreme weather events may lead to increased demands for defense support to civil authorities for humanitarian assistance or disaster response both within the United States and overseas. In some nations, the military is the only institution with the capacity to respond to a large-scale natural disaster."

Tobacco risks

Risk of

chloroflourocarbons to

the ozone layer

Acid rain

Nuclear winter

Climate change

Rising Sea Levels

Glacial, Ice Cap, & Sea Ice Retreat

Heat Waves

Storms and Floods

Droughts

Disease and Pests

Economic Disruption

Conflict and War

Biodiversity Loss

Ecosystem Collapse