HZGD#18-A - Hangzhou's climate change politics, climate governance and green city making

Hangzhou’s climate change politics, climate governance and green city making

Hangzhou Green Drinks, Earth Day, 22.04.2013

Jørgen Delman, Professor

China Studies, Department for Cross-cultural and Regional Stiudies (ToRS)

University of Copenhagen

GHG emissions and China’s environmental crisis

China’s climate change politics

Cities and climate change

Hangzhou as a case – contextualising Hangzhou

My propositions

What Hangzhou does do to deal with climate change

Hangzhou’s green city making

Strenghts and possible weaknesses of Hangzhou’s approach

(Speculative) conclusion

Aim here

Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

Background – Factors affecting China’s GHG emissions


China’s ecological footprint > China’s biocapacity

WWF (2010 ). China Ecological Footprint Report. Biocapacity, Cities and Development

Continued growth and China’s share in incremental energy demand, imports and energy-related CO2 emissions: 2000-2010 and 2008-2035


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Vedvarende energi

Naturgas

BNP

Energi

El kapacitet

CO2 emission

Kul

Olie

A-kraft

1990-2010

2010-2035

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

CO2 emissions

El. capacity

Energy

GDP

Natural gas

Renewable energy

From Odgaard & Delman 2013. Kilder: Egne beregninger med data fra International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012, og International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – Highligths 2012.

China needs energy, not least coal for future growth


© 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/20/coal-plants-world-resources-institute

Do we know the full extent of China’s climate crisis?


Pollution levels much worse than government admits?

Guan, Dabo, Zhu Liu , Yong Geng, Sören Lindner, & Klaus Hubacek Nature Climate Change, (2012) | doi:10.1038/nclimate1560.

?

The cost of the ”China model”: Climate change is coming to China with a vengeance

Climate change is integrally linked with envionment and energy security in the national discourse

Cities are seens as key emitters of Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

But also as primary actors in finding solutions …… Climate change policies are being rolled out to city levels these years

China’s climate change politics


3600

CC policies

New ”green” development ”buzzwords” in 12 FYP

Sustainable development

Circular economy

Green transformation

Green development

Low carbon development

What China’s leadership says to deal with the environmental challenge


Towards a new development paradigm?

11th FYP Target (2010)

11th FYP Actual

result (2010)

12th FYP Target (2015)

Goal 2020

Share of non-fossil energy in primary energy (hydro, new renewables, nuclear)

10% (for RE only)

8.3% 11.4% 15%

Energy consumption per GDP unit (=energy intensity)

-20% -19.1% -16% -

CO2 emission per GDP unit (=carbon intensity)

- - -17% -40% to -45%

Share of non-fossil fuel sources (excl. hydro power and nuclear) in total electricity consumption

1% 1.2% - 3%

Forest coverage 20% 20.4% 21.7% 23%

Green tech’s contribution to GDP (incl. biotechnology and IT)

- 5% 8% 15%

Selected climate change and RE targets in the Five Year Plans and accompanying Long- and Medium Term Plans

Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies Table 1 - Selected targets in the Five Year Plans and accompanying Long- and Medium Term Plans

Odgaard & Delman 2012

Note: By ‘energy consumption’ is meant gross energy consumption. The only exception is the 2020 target on 15% non-fossil energy, which is defined according to final energy consumption. The share of non-fossil fuels in electricity consumption is only for large utilities with a capacity above 5,000 MW – and this target is indicative, not binding. Sources: NDRC 2007; State Council 2011; APCO 2011; RED 2011; Hu 2009

Cities and climate change


Cities responsible for

70-80 %

of global GHG emissions

The conventional wisdom



OECD 2009


What do we measure?

Doodman, D. (2009). Blaming cities for climate change? An analysis of urban greenhouse gas enmissions inventories. Environment and Urbanization. 21-1 185-201


WB 2012

Measure city aggregates or average per capita?

Many cities have lower per capita emissions than residents in other places of that particular country

Boundary problems

Now, production rather than consumption based measurements, e.g. aviation and shipping not included

Polluting production easily shifted to other places (outside the cities or to other countries)

However: cities are effective units of implementation and host the majority of the world population

Cities are problematic units to measure but necessary for effective policy implementation


Hangzhou as a case – contextualising Hangzhou


Zhejiang in comparison


HSBC 2010

Hangzhou in comparative perspective - 1


HSBC 2010


Hangzhou in comparative perspective - 2

HSBC 2010


HSBC 2010

23 of China’s top 500 companies /Forbers

Predictions of CO2 emissions per household in 2026


Zheng, Siqi et al. (2009)- The Greenness of China : Household Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 15621

My propositions


Governance theory applied to China

Government cannot do everything

Governance seen as a response to the accelerated fragmenting of the party-state system

Neo-liberal approach to execution of government: small state, PPP, outsourcing

State, business, and society are not apart, mutually embedded

New flexible and adaptive party-state approach - new mode of government through governance innovations with new tools to make the policy cycle more effective:

Inclusion, participation of business and [civil] society

Outsourcing

Public-private partnerships

Other hybrid regimes

Climate politics: new modes of government?


Proposition

Climate change politics as a potential game changer

towards more inclusive and participatory

politics/governance innovations


http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?hl=da&newwindow=1&tbo=d&rlz=1T4ADFA_daCN487CN487&biw=1600&bih=607&tbm=isch&tbnid=Hw0t6wy7pG2bMM:&imgrefurl=http://www.ecofriend.com/shenzhen-s-sbf-tower-bespeaks-green-lifestyle-and-sustainablity.html&docid=y7yGg-2by2ZqwM&imgurl=http://ecofriend.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/sbf-tower-by-hans-hollein-1_N89uf_18770.jpg&w=550&h=550&ei=jqW9UI_4KuX44QSfqYC4BQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=720&vpy=105&dur=2123&hovh=224&hovw=224&tx=141&ty=134&sig=114113794870874226293&page=1&tbnh=129&tbnw=129&start=0&ndsp=30&ved=1t:429,r:5,s:0,i:97

A huge bundle of comprehensive policies…..

Eco-civilization

Low-carbon development

Developing low-carbon urban planning, incorporating economic structural changes

Low-carbon policies for energy conservation and renewable energy = low carbon energy mix

Low carbon sector plans, programs, projects

Stimulate R&D and innovation in low-carbon industries

Low carbon consumption: Green lifestyle and green management systems

Establish GHG emission database, management, and monitoring systems

International experiences and collaboration

What Hangzhou does to deal with climate change


People’s Daily online 19.8.2010;

http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/2010tz/t20100810_365264.htm

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CC policies

Category 2005 2010 2015 2020

1 Reduction of CO2/GDP per unit

and district (t./10.000 CNY)* --- ---- [－40%] [－50%]

2 Third sector share（%） 44.1 48.7 54 60

3 Energy use/GDP per unit and

district (t./10.000 CNY)* 0.87 0.68 0.55 －

4 Low carbon R&D cost as

percentage of total R&D cost (%) 2.5 4 5.5 7

5 Share of non-fossil fuel in total

primary energy consumption (%) 3.7

5.8 (2009)

10 15

6 Share of cars using new energy

or saving energy (%) 5 9 15 20

7

Share of existing buildings that

have undertaken energy savings

measures (%)

3 23 50 75

8

Share of built up area using

renewable energy in newly

constructed buildings (%)

5 19 40 60

9 Forest mass (10.000 m3) 4,000 4,224 4,650 5,000

10 Share of green areas in urban

built up areas (%) 37.31 40.0 42 45

11 Share of green travel (%) 26 31 35 40

12 Sorting of garbage (%) 0 18 50 80

Hangzhou - key low carbon development targets, 2005-2020


‘Traditional’ implemenation mechanisms

Authoritarian: top-down command-type approaches

Fragmented: Competitive approaches between different vertical bureacratic agencies (ministries in Beijing)

Integrative mechanisms:

Party in charge: CC leading group (headed by city party secretary)

CC targets part of local leaders’ KPIs

Governance innovations

New paradigmatic thinking?

Involvement of third parties:

Mobilization of and support to intermediaries

Mobilize enterprises and business groups

Community and citizen participation/involvement

KPIs for climate change and social participation

Climate governance in Hangzhou


Strong in competition for attention and resources:

Hangzhou as a first mover in national competition: strong self- assertiveness

Harmonization of city brand: ”City of quality life!

Governance approach to branding community

But ”green” elements not fully integrated in city brand (maybe wisely?)

Hangzhou’s green city making – game changing tool?


Strengths

Started early, considerable experience

Aligned with national policies and approach

Strong conceptual approach

Strong self-assertiveness

Party Secretary in charge

Recognition of need for new types of state-society interaction

Strenghts and possible weaknesses of Hangzhou’s approach


Possible weaknesses

Policy overload

Lack of recognition of the importance of climate change politics at local level; KPIs not taken seriously

Lack of sustained leadership (tenure rush 赶任期)

Selective policy implementation

Real willingnes to empower businesses and societal stakeholders?

”Green” brand unrealistic: lack of public awareness

Party-state’s response is constructive: New paradigmatic thinking?

Climate politics as game changer?

Climate governance: From environmental authoritarianism to more ”democratic” environmentalism (cf. Gilley 2012), i.e. pluralism (more voices are heard, more actors involved)

(Speculative) conclusion


Technology

HZGD#18-A - Hangzhou's climate change politics, climate governance and green city making