Classification: Internal Status: Draft

Oslo Group expert meeting: A user perspective

Oslo, May 18., 2009

Øivind Ekne,

Leading Advisor, Market Analysis and Strategy,

Oil Trading and Supply, StatoilHydro

2

What we doRequiring a broad range of statistics

• Supporting trading activity

– Short term focus

– Oil, natural gas, CO2

– Demand/supply

• Production, import/export, stocks, end use volumes and prices

• Supporting strategic decisions; investments & divestments

– Explaining, forecasting, scenarios

– Medium & long term focus

– Energy balance; all forms of energy

• Production, import/export, stocks, end use volumes and prices

– Underlying factors driving energy demand and competition between energy sources

• Additional arguments

– Better information More efficient markets

– “What gets measured gets managed”

3

Our “wish list”

• Consistency

– Over time and across borders; ability to aggregate

– Across energy sources; units and calorific value

– Reporting structure (layout, formats)

• Timely

– Statistics are driving market developments, markets can move quickly

• Availability and easy access

– Easy overview of available statistics

– Easy to choose time series etc.

– Download options, industry standard formats

• Accuracy

– How accurate is accurate enough? 10% rule?

– May push towards timeliness push inaccuracy?

– Commercial sensitivity versus accuracy

4

The element of timing

5 min.

60 min.

Markets can move significantly in a

matter of minutes.

Example of price driver: EIA/DOE weekly

statistics

5

Best practice: EIA/DOE

• U.S. Data Summary

Weekly Supply Estimates U.S. Crude Oil Supply & Disposition more Summary data

• Prices

Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices Spot Prices World Crude Oil Prices more Price data

• Crude Reserves & Production

Crude Oil Production Reserves, Reserves Changes, and Production more Crude Reserves & Production data

• Refining & Processing

Weekly Inputs, Utilization & Production Refinery Yield more Refining & Processing data

• Imports/Exports & Pipelines

Weekly Imports & Exports U.S. Imports by Country of Origin more Imports/Exports & Pipelines data

• Stocks

Total Stocks (Weekly & Monthly) Stocks by Type more Stocks data

• Consumption/Sales

Product Supplied Prime Supplier Sales Volumes more Consumption/Sales data

Reports

This Week in Petroleum normally updated Wednesday 1 p.m. (schedule)Weekly Petroleum Status Report normally updated Wednesday 10:30 a.m. (schedule)Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update normally updated Monday by 5 p.m. (schedule) U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices normally updated Monday by 5 p.m. (schedule) Weekly Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices normally updated Monday by 5 p.m. (schedule)     more Petroleum Reports...

Analyses

Market Assessment of Planned Refinery Outages Apr 2009Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150? June 2008How dependent are we on foreign oil? May 2008Primer on Gasoline PricesPrimer on Diesel Fuel PricesResidential Heating Oil Prices: What Consumers Should KnowState Energy Profiles Real (vs. Nominal) Petroleum Prices updated monthly     more Petroleum Analyses...

Forecasts

Short-Term Energy OutlookAnnual Energy Outlook 

International Energy Outlook 

6

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Released after 10:00 p.m. Released after 10:30 a.m.

Highlights: Weekly Petroleum Status Report Highlights PDF

Tables:

H1 Petroleum Supply Summary PDF

1 U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, 4 Weeks Ending PDF TXT,CSV

2 U.S. Petroleum Activity HTML,PDF, XLS

3 Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, U.S. Totals HTML,PDF, XLS

4 Stocks of Motor Gasoline by PAD District HTML,PDF, XLS

5 Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil by PAD District HTML,PDF, XLS

6 Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil by PAD District HTML,PDF, XLS

7 Stocks of Propane/Propylene by PAD Districts I, II, and III, and (IV & V) HTML,PDF, XLS

8 U.S. Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products HTML,PDF, XLS

9 U.S. Imports of Petroleum Products by Product HTML,PDF, XLS

10 U.S. Petroleum Products Supplied HTML,PDF, XLS

11 U.S. and PAD District Weekly Estimates, Most Recent 4 Weeks HTML,PDF, TXT,CSV,XLS

12 U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, Week Ending PDF, TXT,CSV

13 World Crude Oil Prices HTML,PDF, TXT,CSV,XLS

14 Spot Prices of Crude Oil, Motor Gasoline, and Heating Oils HTML,PDF, TXT,CSV,XLS

15 Spot Prices of Low-Sulfur Diesel, Kerosene-Type Jet, Residual Fuels, and Propane HTML,PDF, TXT,CSV,XLS

16 NYMEX Futures Prices of Crude Oil, Motor Gasoline, No. 2 Heating Oil, and Propane HTML,PDF, TXT,CSV,XLS

17 U.S. Retail Motor Gasoline and On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices HTML,PDF, TXT,CSV,XLS

+ figures, sources, appendices and glossary

7

Other issues

• Euroilstock improvement (example ARA stocks weekly?)

• The Norwegian OD (for NCS) seems to be best practice on production data

• Strengthen reporting from Non-OECD

– Large emerging economies like China and India crucial

• JODI.org – continued development?

– Six international organizations supporting JODI (APEC, Eurostat, IEA, OLADE, OPEC and UNSD)

– Assess the oil data situation in their respective member countries in order to better qualify and quantify the lack of transparency. The assessment included the collection of monthly oil statistics from each organisation’s member countries through a harmonized questionnaire on 42 key oil data points.

• User friendly downloading example: FED St. Louis

• Challenges with stocks: Oil in transit, floating storage, primary vs. secondary & tertiary

• Incentives for industry to voluntarily provide data? (Prisoner’s dilemma?)

• Bio fuels – the whole value chain

• CO2 and other greenhouse gas reports

8

The JODI World Database

This database should in no way be seen as a final product. The database evolves continuously. The quality of the data is assessed on a continuous basis too (see also ‘Database’ section). Other flows already collected through the JODI questionnaire, like imports and exports, will be included at a later stage. Making the data available was only the first step towards more transparency.

 

The database consists of:

Seven product categories: Crude Oil, LPG, Gasoline, Kerosene, Diesel Oil, Fuel Oil and Total Oil,

Six flows: Production, Demand, Refinery Intake and Output, Closing Stock Levels and Stock Change.

Data in three different units: barrels, tons and litres

Data for more than 90 participating countries

Data from January 2002 to one month-old.

The current features of the database enable users to quickly access and view data from different perspectives. Users can consult metadata, select and filter user-defined views, search for specific data, export data in multiple formats and visualize data through interactive charting (see also ‘First Time User’).

The JODI partner organizations submitted to the participating countries/economies an expanded JODI questionnaire with additional flows and products. Since March 2007, an exercise is running, for a trial period, to assess how many participating countries are in position to fill in the expanded questionnaire, with the aim of evaluating this exercise at the next JODI conference that should take place at the end of 2008.

The organizations are very committed to these objectives but they cannot do it alone. They need full co-operation from countries and the oil industry. They also need comments from the users, be it praise or criticism and of course any suggestions are welcome.