HOCH NH DNG TINTRNG I HC KINH T TP. H CH MINH

Estimating Investment Cash FlowsMc tiuObjectivesHiu cc khi nim c bn v thit yu trong quyt nh u t thm nh d n.Nm cc nguyn tc c bn khi hoch nh ngn sch vn u t.Xc nh c u t thun cho d n.Xc nh c dng tin ca d n.Ni dungContentNhng khi nim c bn.Cc nguyn tc hoch nh dng tinLi vay, Vn lun chuyn, Thu do thanh l TS, Khu hao.Tnh ton u t thunXc nh dng tinDng tin v vn lm pht.Phn bit dng tin vi li nhun:

Li nhun = Doanh thu Chi ph Profit = (Revenue) (Cost) Dng tin (CF) = Dng tin vo Dng tin ra (Net cashflows) = (Cash inflows) (Cash outflows)Nhng khi nim c bnBasic conceptsS thay i trong phng thc thanh ton nh hng nh th no n li nhun v dng tin thu nh trnDng tin:Dng tin (cash flow) c xem l thu nhp rng bng tin tng thi im ca d n. Cash flow = dng tin thu vo dng tin chi raDng tin ca 1 d n l ch tiu phn nh s lun chuyn ca tin trong sut vng i d n. N th hin tin mt thc c tng thi im bng cch ly dng tin thc thu vo (inflow) dng tin thc thu ra (outflow) thi im .

Nhng khi nim c bnBasic conceptsCho mt v d v dng tin: cho thu nh trong 5 nm.Lit k dng chi vo vo dng thu ra trong dng tin hot ng (Sch TCDN)Doanh thu thc thu bng tin100 trChi ph hot ng (cha k KH)60 trKhu hao TSC20 trEBIT20 trThu TNDN (40%)8 trEAT (Li sau thu)12 trDng tin thu vo100 trDng tin chi ra60+8 trCF32 trNhng khi nim c bnBasic conceptsLu : Doanh thu s khng bao gm doanh thu bn chu.Khng tnh khu hao vo dng chi v y khng phi l chi ph thc chi bng tin.Chi ph hat ng l chi ph thc chi bng tin (lu loi tr chi ph trch trc v a vo ht nhng chi ph phn b)V sao khng thm nh d n da vo li nhun?1. Doanh thu tnh li nhun c th bao gm doanh thu bn chu (khng bng tin tnh thi im ghi nhn).2. Chi ph tnh li nhun cng c nhng chi ph khng bng tin nh khu hao.3. C nhng chi ph chi (bng tin) nhng khng c tnh ht vo li nhun m ch tnh 1 phn (chi ph phn b).4. C nhng chi ph cha chi nhng c tnh vo li nhun (nhng chi ph trch trc).5. Li nhun mang tnh ch quan do ph thuc vo cc phng php k ton khc nhau (nh gi HTK, phn b chi ph v mc tiu k ton thu). Cng mt tnh hnh pht sinh nhng s c nhng kt qu khc nhau ph thuc vo nhng cch x l ca doanh nghip.Nhng khi nim c bnBasic conceptsnh gi d n da trn dng tin v:Phn nh chnh xc hiu qu ti chnh thc ca d n.m bo nguyn tc tin t c gi tr theo thi gian.

Nhng khi nim c bnBasic concepts Cc d n u t m rng (expansion project): Khi c s sn xut hin ti khng p ng nhu cu.Pht trin cc sn phm mi. Cc d n thay th (replacement projects):Thay th cc thit b li thi Gim chi ph sn xut sn phm. Cc d n pht sinh p ng cc yu cu php l, cc tiu chun sc khe v an ton Phn loi d n u tInvestment project classificationHOACH NH NS VN U T Dng thu: doanh thu thun c khuynh hng tng nhanh

Dng chi: chi ph hat ng tng nhanh, thng thng xut hin c hi ph, vn lun chuyn tng ln.Hoch nh dng tinEstimating investment cash flowHoch nh dng tin d n m rng10Thng thng, tc tng ca doanh thu s cao hn tc tng ca chi ph.i vi d n m rng, nh u t phi u t vo TSC v u t thm vo ti sn lu ng nn s pht sinh nhu cu v vn lun chuyn.TSL v N ngn hn gi chung l vn lun chuyn. Mt cch chnh xc hn l: Vn lun chuyn thun NWC: ti sn lu ng c ti tr bng vn di hn = TSL n ngn hn (v bng minh ha thm)

HOACH NH NS VN U TDng thu: doanh thu thun c th tng nh tc tng t hoc khng tng. Xut hin phn thu do thanh l TSC c.

Dng chi: chi ph hat ng khng i hoc gim i, hu nh khng xut hin c hi ph, vn lun chuyn khng i hoc tng t.Hoch nh dng tinEstimating investment cash flowHoch nh dng tin d n thay th11i vi d n thay th, s gim i trong dng chi (chi ph hat ng) mi chnh l mc tiu ca d n. Khi thc hin d n thay th, nh u t ch u t vo ti sn c nh m khng phi u t vo ti sn lu ng nn khng pht sinh nhu cu vn lun chuyn hoc pht sinh t.Khon thu do thanhl TSC c thi im hin ti nn c tr i vo u t thun (xem phn sau).1. Dng tin c o lng trn c s tng thm.2. Dng tin c tnh ton trn c s sau thu3. Chi ph thit hi khng c tnh vo dng tin ca d n.4. Gi tr cc ti sn s dng trong mt d n nn c tnh theo cc chi ph c hi ca chng. 5. Tt c tc ng gin tip ca mt d n phi c xem xt khi nh gi dng tin.Hoch nh dng tinEstimating investment cash flowCc nguyn tc hoch nh dng tinNguyn tc 1: Dng tin tng thm (Incremental cash flow)CF = CF (thc hin DA ) CF (khng thc hin DA)Hoch nh dng tinEstimating investment cash flowDng tin nn c nh gi gc s tc ng n ton b dng tin doanh nghip. V th, nn nh gi cc thay i trong dng doanh thu, chi ph v thu do vic chp nhn d n.

y l mt nguyn tc rt quan trng trong hoch nh dng tin, c bit, trong cc d n thay th, nguyn tc ny cn c xem xt thn trng.Nguyn tc 1: Dng tin tng thm (Incremental cash flow)Cho mt v d:Mt doanh nghip ang c d nh thay th 1 TSC c c dng tin d kin nh sau:-1000; 500;500;500;500-2000; 700;700;700;700.Doanh nghip c nn thc hin d n bit r = 10%.Nu xt NPV ca d n 2; chng ta thy NPV>0, nhng thc cht, dng tin tng thm ca d n s c NPV