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7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
1/17
5/3/201
Chng 7LM PHT V THT NGHIP
Ni dung
Lm pht
Tht nghip
Mi lin h gia lm pht v tht nghip
7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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I. Lm pht
1. Khi nim:
Lm pht (inflation) l tnh trng mc gichung cannkinh t tng ln trong mt thigian nhtnh.
Gim pht (deflation) l tnh trng mc gi
chung cannkinh tgimxung.Gim lm pht (disinflation) l s st gimcatllmpht.
Mcgi chungchiu l mcgi trungbnh ca nhiu loi hng ha v dch v vcobngchsgi.
Chsgi(price index) l chtiu phnnhmc gi mt thi im no bng baonhiuphntrmso vithiimgc(trc).
Tllmphtl chtiu phnnh tltngthm hay gimbtcagi cmtthiimno so vithiimtrc.
7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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Cng thc
1)-(tgiasoCh
1)-(tgiasoCh-(t)giasoCh(t)phatlamleTy =
%00= 1-(t)giasoCh(t)phatlamleTy
Nu ly ch s gi l t l thay i gi so vithi im trc, cng thc trn c th vit li:
V d:
Thng 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ch s gi so
vi thng gc106.1 105.6 106.8 107.9 108.2 108.3 109.2
Ch s gi sovi thng trc
99.5 101.1 101.0 100.3 100.1 100.8
Lm pht hay
gim pht
T l lm pht
n v tnh: %
7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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3.2. Ch s gi sn xut
nh ngha: Ch s gi sn xut (PPI -
Producer Price Index) phn nh tc thay i
gi ba nhm hng ha: lng thc thc phm,
sn phm thuc ngnh ch to v ngnh khai
khong.
Ch s ny c tnh theo gi bn bun
Cch tnh ging nhu ch s gi tiu dng
3.3. Ch s gi tiu dngnh ngha: Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI -
Consumer Price Index) phn nh tc thayigi cacc mthng tiu dng chnh cangitiu dng inhnh.
Cng thctnh:
Trong : pt- Gi canmnghin cup0- Gi canmgcq0- Slnghng cagihng
100xnq
q
CPI
1i0
0
0
1i
t
p
np
7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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Quy trnh tnh ton
Bc1:Cnhgihng: Lngthc,quno,chtt,ili,vinthng...
Bc2:Xc nhgi c: Tm gi camihngha v dchvtrong gihng timithiim.
Bc 3:Tnh chi ph cagihng: sdngsliuvgi c tnh chi ph cagihng ticcthiimkhc nhau.
Bc 4: Chn nm gc v tnh ch s. Ly chiph ca gi hng nm t chia cho chi ph ca gihng trong nmgc,ta thu cCPI.
4. Nguyn nhn gy lm pht4.1. Lmpht do cuko
Xyra khi tngcutngtrong khi tngcungkhng ihoctngthphntngcu.
Chnh lchquan hTin- Hng
7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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Lm pht do cu koP
YYp
AS
AD
E0P0
Y0
AD1
E1P1
Y1
M rng SX
Lmpht F
4.2. Lm pht do chi ph y
Lmpht do cung cn cgil lmphtdo chi ph y. Loilmpht ny xyra khi chiph snxutgia tnghocnnglcsnxutqucgia gimst.
Chi ph snxuttng:
Nnglcsnxutgim:
7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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Chi ph sn xut tngP
YYp
AS0
AD
E0P0
Y0
P1
Y1
Thu hp
Lmpht
AS1
E1F
Nng sut sn xut gimP
YY0
AS0
AD
E0P0
P1
Y1
Thu hp SX
Lm
pht
AS1
E1
F
7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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4.3. Lm pht d kin
Lmpht dkin(lmpht qun tnh) ltllmpht hintim mingidkin
rngn stiptcxyra trong tnglai.
P
YYp
AS0
AD1E0
P0
P1
AS1
E1
AD2
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1
5. Tc ng ca lm pht Snlngv viclm
Phn philithu nhpGiangicho vay v ngivayGiangihnglngv trlngGiangimua v bn cc loicphiuGiachnh phvidn chng
Thay iccukinh t Nnkinh tkm hiuqu
Lmpht lm sai lchtn hiugiMtnhiuthigian v sclciph lmpht Chi ph thcnRilonthtrngvn, bindngutGimnnglccnhtranh hng ha trong nc
Lmpht do cuko (tc ngln cu):
Lmpht do chi ph y(tc ngln cung):
6. Bin php kim ch lm pht
7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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II. Tht nghip
1. Mtskhi nimcbnLao ng: l hotngquan trngnhtca
con ngi,tora cacivtchtv cc gi trtinh thncax hi.
Vic lm: mi hot ng lao ng to rangunthu nhp,khng bphp lutcm.
Tht nghip: l nhng ngi trong tuilao ng,c khnnglao ng,angtm kimviclm nhngchac viclm.
Dn s
S ngi trong tui lao ng S ngi ngoi tui lao ng
C kh nng lao ng Khng c kh nng lao ng
Ngun nhn lc
Lc lng L Ngoi Lc lng L
Tht nghip C vic lm
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Lclnglao ng(hay dn shotngkinh t): bao gmnhngngianglm vicv nhngngithtnghip.
T l tht nghip: Phn nh t l % sngithtnghipso vilclnglao ng.
100*=onglaolngLc
nghiepthatngiSo(%)nghiepthatleTy
2. Cc dng tht nghip2.1. Thtnghiptmthi(chc)
L loi tht nghip xy ra khi c mt sngilao ngangtrong thigian tm kimmtnilm ph hphnhocnhngngimibcvo thtrnglao ngangch
vicLoithtnghipny tntingay ckhi th
trnglao ngcn bng
7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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1
2. Cc dng tht nghip
2.2. ThtnghipccuL loi thtnghipxy ra
khi c mt cn i v mtc cu gia cung v culao ng. S mt cn iny do 2 nguyn nhn:
Ngi lao ng thiu knng
Khc bitvnictr
2. Cc dng tht nghip2.3. Thtnghipchu k
Tht nghip chu k (thtnghip theo l thuytKeynes) l loi tht nghipc to ra trong tnh trngnnkinh tsuy thoi
http://images.google.com.vn/imgres?imgurl=http://adminwebsite.cktqp.gov.vn/imgupload/tintuc/11that-nghiep1062005163349.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.cktqp.gov.vn/news.php%3Fid%3D4984%26id_subject%3D14&h=170&w=140&sz=26&hl=vi&start=1&tbnid=5t7AQgQFVXV07M:&tbnh=99&tbnw=82&prev=/images%3Fq%3D%2522Th%25E1%25BA%25A5t%2Bnghi%25E1%25BB%2587p%2522%26gbv%3D2%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Dvi7/21/2019 Chuong 7 - Thatnghiepvalamphat
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3. Tc hi ca tht nghip
ivic nhn ngilao ng:
ivix hi:
4. Bin php gim tht nghipivithtnghipchu k:
ivithtnghiptnhin:
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III. Mi quan h gia lm pht
v tht nghip1.ngcong Phillips ngnhnVo nhng nm 1958, A.W.Phillips thuc
HcvinKinh tLondon cho ngmtbibo trong ttpch Kinh thccaAnh mangtiu : Miquan hgiathtnghipv tlthay i tin lng danh ngha Anh, 1861-1957.
Phillips chra mitngquan nghchgiatlthtnghipv tllmpht.
P
YYp
AS1AD1
E1P1
AS2AD2
E2AS3
AD3
E3P3=105P2
P2=105P1
ADb
Eb
ADcEc
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1
T l lm pht
5%
T l tht nghip
a
c
b
ng congPhillips ngn hn
Un
2. ng cong Phillips di hn Theo Samuelson, ngcong Phillips chc
gi trtrong thigian trcmt. Vlu di (5n10 nm)ngPhillips thngngtitlthtnghiptnhin.
Ngoi ra, Friedman v Phelps cngara
cc kt luncamnh da trn nguyn l cinca kinh thcvm. Theo ,hktlunrngkhng c l do g nghrngtllmpht gnvithtnghiptrong di hn
Khng c s nh i gia tht nghip vlmpht.
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Un
Lm pht cao
T l lm pht
T l tht nghip
ng congPhillips di hn
Lm pht thp
A
B
P
YYp
AS1AD1
E1
P1
AS2AD2
E2
ADc
Ec
P3
P2
ADc
Ec
AS3LP qun
tnh mi
LP qun
tnh c