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Bi 5-6: Chnh sch t gi hi oi

Ti Chnh Quc T 2015(International Finance

Ni dungCc iu kin cn bng

Lm pht tng i

Li sut tng i

T gi k hn

Ngang gi li sut IRP

Tip cn da trn nh gi ti sn

Li sut tng i

Trin vng tng trng kinh t

Cung/cu ti sn

n nh chnh tr

u c v tnh thanh khon

Cn cn thanh ton quc t

Ti khon vng lai

FDIFPIChnh sch t gi hi oi

D tr ngoi hi

T gi hi oi

danh ngha

Ni dung

Xc nh t gi da trn cn cn thanh ton quc t

Xc nh t gi hi oi da trn cch tip cn nh gi ti sn

Cc yu t tc ng n t gi hi oi cn bng

Xc nh TGH da trn CCTTQT

Cn cn ti khon vng

lai (X M) +

Cc cn ti khon vn

(CI CO) +

Cn cn ti khon

ti chnh (FI FO) +

D tr

ngoi hi

FXB =

Cn cn thanh ton

quc t

Mi quan h gia cn cn thanh ton quc t v tgi hi oi:

Xc nh TGH da trn CCTTQT

Cn cn thanh ton quc t c s dng d bo nhng thay i ca t gi hi oi.

Nu mt quc gia s dng ch t gi hi oi c nh c thm ht cn cn thanh ton quc t ln i km vi mt lng d tr ngoi hi yu km s rt d b cc nh u c tin t tn cng v ri vo khng hong tin t (currency crisis).

V vy m khng hong tin t cn c gi l khng hong cn cn thanh ton quc t.

O LNG BIEN ONG TY GIA

t

tt

SSSDthaydoiTGH 1%

% thay i dng => ngoi t tng gi % thay i m => ngoi t gim gi Thay i ln cng c th xy ra trong 24h khi

c nhng tin tc bt ng v kinh t, chnh tr. Mt ng tin c th tng gi so vi ng ny

nhng cng c th ng thi gim gia so ving tin khc.

X TG d trn tip cn BOP

Tc ng mt khonthm ht hay thngd trn BOP lnTGH ph thuc voquc gia s dngchnh sch t gi thni hay c nh

X TGH da trn tip cn nh gi ti sn

Cch tip cn nh gi ti sn cho rngmc mt nh u t nc ngoi snlng nm gi cc ti sn nh danh bngng ni t da trn cc ti sn u ttrong nc nh chng khon, bt ngsn,hoc xu hng th trng tng lai.

Xc nh TGH da trn PP nh gi TS

1. Li sut thc tng i.

2. Trin vng tng trng kinh t.

3. Tnh thanh khon ca th trng.

4. Cc iu kin kinh t v kin trc thng tngca mt quc gia.

5. An ninh v mt chnh tr.

6. tin cy ca vn qun tr doanh nghip.

7. S ly nhim (contagion).

8. Yu t u c.

Xc nh TGH da trn PP nh gi TS

XAC NH TY GIA CAN BANG

Ty gia ai dien cho gia ca cua mot ong tientai mot thi iem

Tai bat c thi iem nao, ty gia can bangcua mot ong tien se the hien mc gia ma tai omc cau bang vi mc cung cua ong tien o.

Xc nh t gi cn bng

ng ni t USDng ngoi t France Thy

s.

Mc cau tien te

D

$1,14

$1,15

$1,60

So lng ong france Thy s

Gia tr ong france

Mc cung tien te

$1,14

$1,15

$1,16

So lng ong france Thy s

Gia tr ong france

S

Xac nh ty gia hoi oai can bang

$1,14

$1,15

$1,16

So lng ong france

Gia tr ong france

D

S

Cc yu t tc ng n TGH cn bng

TGH

cn bng

Lm pht

Thu nhp

Chnh ph

K vng

Li sut

Tac ong cua viec gia tang lam phat cua My en gia tr can bang cua ong france

$1,14

1,15

$1,16

So lng ong france

Gia tr ong france

S

D

S2

D2

$1,155

Tac ong cua s gia tang lai suat My en gia tr can bang cua ong CHF

$1,14

$1,15

$1,16

So lng ong france

Gia tr ong france

S

D

S2

D2

Tac ong gia tang thu nhap cua My len gia tr can bang cua ong CHF

$1,14

$1,15

$1,16 0

So lng ong france

Gia tr ong france

S

DD2

Cc yu t tc ng n TGH cn bng

Tc ng ca Chnh ph n TGH cn bng thng qua:

p t nhng ro cn v ngoi hi

p t nhng ro cn v ngoi thng

Can thip vo th trng ngoi hi

Tc ng n nhng bin ng v m nh lm pht, li sut, v thu nhp quc dn

Cc yu t tc ng n TGH cn bng

Th trng ngoi hi phn ng li vi cc thng tintrong tng lai c lin quan n t gi.

V d, tin v gia tng lm pht tim n Vit Nam cth lm nhng nh u c bn VND mua USDnhm phng trnh s mt gi ca tin ng v iuny lm dch chuyn t gi hi oi cn bng.

Tom lc cac yeu to co the tac ong en ty gia

Chenh lech lam phat

Chenh lech thu nhap

Nhng gii han mau dch cua chnh phuNhng gii han mau dch cua chnh phu

Chenh lech lai suat

Nhng gii han chu chuyen von

Nhng gii han chu chuyen von

Cau hang hoa Cau hang hoa nc ngoai cua

c dan MyNhu cau cua c dan nc ngoai

oi vi hang hoa My

Cau ngoai Cau ngoai te cua c dan My

Cung ngoai te

Cau chng khoan Cau chng khoan nc ngoai cua c

dan My

Cau cua c dan nc ngoai ve

chng khoan My

TY GIA HOI OAICac yeu to tai chnh

Cac yeu to lien quan en thng mai

Cau ngoai Cau ngoai te cua c dan My

Cungngoai te

H thng TGH truyn thng

1.H thng t gi hi oi c nh (Fixed exchangerate system)

2.H thng t gi hi oi th ni hon ton/t do(Completely/Freely floating exchange rate system)

3.H thng t gi hi oi hn hp, pha trn gia cnh v th ni (Mixed exchange rate system)

H thng TGH truyn thng

Trong mt h thng t gi hi oi c nh, t gi hioi hoc c gi khng i hoc ch c cho phpdao ng trong mt phm vi rt hp.

Nu mt khi t gi hi oi bt u dao ng qunhiu, chnh ph c th can thip duy tr t gi hioi trong vng gii hn ca phm vi cho php.

H thng TGH truyn thng

T 1944 n 1971, t gi hi oi c c nh theo mt h thng hoch nh ti hi ngh Bretton Woods.

Mi ng tin c nh gi theo vng. V tt c cc ng tin u c nh gi theo vng, gi tr ca chng i vi nhau c nh.

Cc chnh ph can thip vo cc th trng ngoi hi m bo t gi hi oi khng dao ng qu 1% cao hn hay thp hn t gi nh ban u.

H thng TGH truyn thng

M c thm ht cn cn mu dch, iu ny cho thy gi tr ca ng la qu cao, gi tr ca mt vi ng tin cn c iu chnh ti lp mt dng thanh ton cn bng hn gia cc nc.

Thng 12/1971, hip nh Smithsonian c thit lp yu cu ng la M gim gi khong 8% so vi cc ng tin khc. Bin ca dao ng gi tr ca cc ng tin c ni rng n 2,25% ca t gi n nh.

Thng 3 nm 1973, hip nh Smithsonian chm dt, kt thc k nguyn Bretton Woods.

H thng TGH truyn thng

Trong mt h thng t gi th ni t do, t gi s ccc lc th trng n nh m khng c s can thipca chnh ph. u im ca h thng t gi th ni t doso vi c nh:

Ngn cn s ly lan ca cc cn bnh kinh t, gip duy tr s n nh chung ca th trng th gii.

Gim bt p lc can thip cho NHTW.

Nng cao hiu qu hot ng ca th trng ti chnh.

H thng TGH truyn thng

H thng t gi hi oi hn hp, pha trn gia c nh v th ni:

H thng di bng t gi

H thng t gi con rn tin t

H thng t gi hi oi th ni c qun l

Ch t gi chun tin t

H thng TGH truyn thng

18.000

Bin trn

16.200Bin

di

19.800

Vng t gi mc tiu

H thng di bng t gi

H thng TGH truyn thng

H thng t gi con rn tin t

A

1,98

2,0 F G

DCB

S($/)

Thang1 2 3

H thng TGH truyn thng

H thng t gi th ni c qun l

H thng nm u gia c nh v th ni t do.

Ging h thng th ni t do im cc t gi c cho php dao ng hng ngy v khng c cc bin chnh thc.

Ging h thng c nh im cc chnh ph c th v i khi can thip trnh ng tin nc h khng i qu xa theo mt hng no .

H thng TGH theo phn loi ca IMF

1.Neo c nh (hard peg)

2.Neo linh hot (soft peg)

3.Th ni (floating)

H thng TGH theo phn loi ca IMF

C ch t gi neo c nh in hnh hin nay trn thgii l chun tin t (currency board).

Cc quc gia tng p dng c ch ny lAchentina, Estonia, Lithuania.

H thng TGH theo phn loi ca IMF

C ch t gi neo linh hot, c th chia thnh neo tgi c nh truyn thng, trong c ch ny t gi chdao ng trong mt bin hp, khong 1%.

hoc

Theo kiu con rn tin t, trong c ch ny t gi cth dao ng trong bin rng hn.

H thng TGH theo phn loi ca IMF

Nhm c ch t gi th ni chia thnh 2 loi:

(1) Th ni c iu tit khng cng b trc (managed floating with no preannounced path for the exchange rate).

(2) Th ni hon ton (independent floating).

Can thip t gi ca NHTW

Hnh ng can thip ca NHTW c thc hin khixut hin cc bin ng t gi hi oi mang tnh tbin tc thi nhm n nh th trng ngoi hi.

i khi cc can thip cng cn thit duy tr t gihi oi trong mt vng bin n no theo mctiu chnh sch ca Chnh ph.

Mt cch tng qut th can thip ca NHTW cchia lm hai nhm: can thip trc tip v can thipgin tip.

Can thip t gi trc tip

Can thip khng t mc tiu

Can thip t mc tiu

Can thip khng v hiu ha

Can thip v hiu ha

Can thip t gi gin tip

Can thip gin tip thng qua chnh sch ca chnh ph.

Can thip gin tip qua cc hng ro ca chnh ph.