CANADA’S REPORT ON ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND Energy Balances Gary Smalldridge, Chief, Energy Section, Manufacturing and Energy Division May 2009

CANADA’S REPORT ON ENERGY CANADA’S REPORT ON ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMANDSUPPLY AND DEMAND

Energy Balances

Gary Smalldridge, Chief, Energy Section, Manufacturing and Energy Division

May 2009

23-04-19Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada2

Relevance of an Energy Balance

In an ideal world “Supply” = “Demand” An energy balance is an accounting framework

that seeks to reconcile supply with demand As such it is a powerful validation tool in itself …

“in a balance sheet it needs to all add-up”



An energy balance provides for an harmonized framework:

Harmonisation => Comparability

Comparability => Understanding of the market

Understanding of the market =>

Better informs the policy decision process



Will help identify discrepancies; Different classifications: fuel, plant type… Missing inputs or outputs to transformation “Out of range” efficiencies

• Electricity, CHP and Heat plants • Inputs to refineries vs. their refined products outputs, • Coke ovens inputs vs. outputs…,

Incomplete energy flows; • Coal gasification vs. gas production / consumption… • Oil tar to singaz,

Differences in product/flows definitions; • Natural gas production: raw /marketable • Coal trade: contract vs. shipments



In summary, the Energy Balance:

Provides an energy supply & demand statistical equilibrium; • “accounting” framework to validate energy flows from supply to

consumption by economic sectors, • reconciliation of supply/disposition vs. consumption data,

Defines energy flows within boundaries of economic sectors;

Starting point toward a better understanding of energy.


ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE ENERGY BALANCES

Environmental• Climate change• Statistical precision

Economic• Development of oil sands• Offshore crude oil and

natural gas extraction• Deregulation of natural gas

and electricity• Industry restructuring

Technology• Co-generation of electricity• Alternate forms of Energy• Coal Bed Methane• Other renewable fuels


Monitoring of the Energy Market: “An Evolving Challenge”


What is the Report on Energy Supply and Demand in Canada?

The Report on Energy Supply and Demand is an integrated set of energy balance sheets presented in both natural units and terajoules

The product was developed as the result of the need for this output by the System of National Accounts, Federal and Provincial/Territorial partners, International reporting obligations and industry


CANADIAN ENERGY FLOWS


Operational Strategy

Calculation of an integrated supply and disposition balance for energy

Maximize the use of administrative records.

Managing response burden

Conduct regular and frequent consultation with major users - industry associations, various departments of energy, etc.


ENERGY FORMS

Coal (bituminous, sub-bituminous, lignite, anthracite) Crude Oil (heavy, light & medium, synthetic, bitumen) Natural Gas Natural Gas Liquids (propane, butane and ethane) Electricity (hydro, nuclear, fossil fuel, other) Coke and Coke Oven Gas Spent Pulping Liquor Wood and Wood Waste Steam Refined Petroleum Products (17 products)


Supply

+ Production - Exports + Imports +/- Inter regional transfers +/- Stock variation +/- Inter product transfers +/- Other adjustments - Transformation to other fuels Net supply


Demand

Producer consumption Non-energy use Mining & Oil and gas extraction Manufacturing Transportation Agriculture Residential Public administration Commercial and other institutional


Primary and secondary energy, terajoules - Canada

Total Crude oil Natural Gas plant Primary Steam Prim ary Coke Coke Total Secondary Total coal gas natural e lectricity, energy oven refined electricity, prim ary and gas

liquids hydro

and gas petroleum thermal secondary

(NGL's) nuclear products energy

terajoules

Supply and demand

characteristics Production 1,482,232 6,153,625 7,012,006 685,788 1,631,049 16,964,699 89,319 29,569 4,795,930 583,842 Exports

778,827 3,930,246 4,188,505 211,337 160,886 9,269,800 6,770 970,160 10,246,727 Imports

671,978 1,910,498 474,663 14,104 69,768 3,141,010 3,119 628,588 3,772,715 Inter·regional transfers -278 0 0 0 0 -278 -14,444 -14,722 Stock variation 2,904 38,717 -382,633 25,242 -315,769 0 28,982 -286,786 Inter-product transfers 299,927 -79,993 0 219,934 -217,646 2,287 Other adjustm ents -21,257 140,995 89,462 74,231 283,433 -2,904 184,080 464,607

Availability 1,350,944 4,536,075 3,690,262 537,544 1,539,931 11,654,755 82,761 29,569 4,377,361 583,842

Stock change, utilities and ind. -5,835 -5,835 102 -10,946 -16,677

Transformed to other fuels Electricity by utilities 1,152,315 266,823 1,419,138 83,542 1,502,679 Electricity by industry 115 0 89,437 89,552 0 586 22,213 112,350 Coke and m anufactured gases 125,826 125,826 125,826 Refined petroleum products 4,536,075 26,475 95,459 4,658,008 4,658,008 Steam generation 8 20,513 0 -33,630 -13,109 5,077 -8,032

Net supply 78,515 0 3,287,009 442,084 1,539,931 33,630 5,381,167 82,659 28,983 4,277,477 583,842 10,354,125

Producer consum ption 1,105 0 636,586 17,901 183,974 508,367 1,347,934 Non-energy use 16,971 155,445 360,913 816 514,570 1,048,715

Energy use, final demand 60,438 0 2,494,985 123,420 1,939,799 33,630 ... 81,843 28,983 3,194,409 ... 7,957,503

Total industrial 59,196 1,111,114 56,894 840,662 29,772 ... 81,843 28,983 257,111 ... 2,465,572 Total m ining & oil & gas extrac t. 5,638 384,963 37,198 144,569 1,642 67,529 641,540 Total m anufacturing 53,558 707.141 16,791 696,147 29,772 80,200 28,983 129,463 1,742,054

Pulp and paper m anufacturing

x 61,958 194,974 14,683 x 34,782 307,628 Iron and steel m anufacturing x 73,024 36,137 x x 7,892 223,951 Alum inum and non-ferrous r

m etal m anufacturing x 25,382 219,561 x 13,833 271,549 Cem ent m anufacturing x 2,388 7,415 x 21,069 64,795 Refined petroleum products m anufacturing 49,554 29,204 78,758 Chem icals and fertilizers m anufacturing x 120,030 66,078 9,232 x 9,435 204,830 All other m anufacturing x 374,805 x 142.778 5,857 x 42,451 590,542

Forestry and logging and support activities for forestry 0 19,600 19,600

Construction 19,009 2,905 40,519 62.433 Total transportation 192,992 12,054 14,580 ... 2,273,467 ... 2,493,092 Railways

86,463 86.463 Total a irlines 223,853 223,853

Canadian airlines 201,494 201,494 Foreign airlines 22,359 22,359

Total m arine 108,953 108,953 Dom estic m arine 80,130 ... 80,130 Foreign m arine 28,824 28,824

Pipelines 191,117 12,079 689 203,884 Road transport and urban transit 1,875 12,054 2,502 317,478 333,909 Retail pum p sales 0 0 1,533,011 1,533,011 Agriculture 22,284 7,974 32,627 62 152,024 214,971 Residential 1,242 683,561 14,655 557,062 4 87,880 1,344,404 Public adm inistration 0 22,149 0 50,359 469 50,015 122,992 Com m ercial and other institutional

0 462,886 31.843 444,508 3,324 385,030 1,327,592

Statistical d ifference 0 -10 -1 0 0 -17 -28


ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1 2

Total Demand

Production Data

Import Data

DomesticConsumptionData

=

ExportData

Total

Total Supply

CensusSurvey&AdministrativeData

CensusSurvey&AdministrativeData

Sample&DispositionSurveys

Total

Petajoules


Monitoring of the Energy Market: “Basket of Energy Commodities”


STRENGTHS

Captures all energy use including internally produced and consumed energy

Differentiates between fuels used for industrial processes and fuels used to generate electricity

Differentiates between energy products used for energy purposes and non-fuel use (e.g. natural gas and petroleum coke)

Provides information for a large number of energy commodities at a detailed level


SUPPLIERS VS CONSUMERS

SUPPLIERS

Directed to suppliers

of energy:

smaller number of suppliers than consumers

company-based economy wide detail higher level of industry

aggregation

CONSUMERS

Directed to consumers

of energy:

large number of consumers

establishment-based more detailed

manufacturing data


WEAKNESSES OF SUPPLIERS SURVEYS

Problems coding sales to correct industry Cannot differentiate between energy use and

non-energy use Sales do not necessarily correlate to

consumption Cannot identify secondary distribution of energy

forms Difficulty allocating consumption to integrated

sites


CHALLENGES - MACRO

Lack of data on alternative and emerging transportation fuels

Data quality issues on domestic and foreign marine and airline transportation sectors

Limited sub-national energy consumption data Measurement of cogeneration activities within an

establishment


Challenges - MICRO

• emerging renewable energy sources• emergence of small and medium scale electricity

producers• the delineation between domestic and foreign use of

fuels (marine transportation/airlines)• secondary distribution of refined petroleum products,

natural gas and electricity• fuels used to generate electricity• ethanol production and sales


Links to more information

Report on Energy Supply and Demand in Canada - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/57-003-x/57-003-x2007000-eng.pdf


FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

Gary Smalldridge, Chief, Energy Section,

Manufacturing and Energy Division,

Statistics Canada

(613) 951-3567

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

CANADA’S REPORT ON ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND Energy Balances Gary Smalldridge, Chief, Energy Section, Manufacturing and Energy Division May 2009