17/12/2013

Renewable energy and sustainable energy balances

Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok@kornelisblok

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The growth of renewable energy ….

>What may renewable energy contribute in 2030?

>How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems?

>How to incentivize renewable energy?

11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok2

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What may renewable energy contribute in 2030?

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Renewable energy: 40% in 2030

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Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU

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Renewable energy by sector

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Buildings

Manufacturing industry

Transport

Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU

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Investments and return-on-investment(energy efficiency + renewable energy)

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Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU

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How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems?

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Germany, business-as-used-to-be

11/12/20138 Kees van der Leun

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Germany, the new world (June 2013!)

11/12/20139 Kees van der Leun

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Germany, prices-as-used-to-be

11/12/201310 Kees van der Leun

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Germany, prices in the new world (June 2013!)

11/12/201311 Kees van der Leun

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Flexibility options for power systems

21/04/2312

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The impact of grid constraints

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Grid constraints and total system costs

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How to incentivize renewable energy?

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© ECOFYS | | 21/04/23 Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse

Still diversity of support schemes in Europe but with some converging trends

Source: Ecofys based onRagwitz et al. (2012). RE-Shaping Ecofys et al. (2012). RE progress and biofuels sustainability.

© ECOFYS | | 21/04/23 Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse

The MS are currently on track with their 2011/2012 trajectory but projections do not look good for 2020

Source: Ecofys based onEcofys et al. (2012). RE progress and biofuels sustainability.

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Lessons from MS experience tell us how to design effective and efficient RES-E support schemes

21/04/23 Dr. Corinna Klessmann, Dr. Isabelle de Lovinfosse

Provide reliable framework: frequent and unexpected policy changes undermine investor confidence

• Policy changes transparent and predictable (e.g. automatic degression, clear formula for quota setting, pre-set revision agenda)

• No retroactive changes• Long term political commitment• Guarantee support level for long term • Consultation with stakeholders

Lessons learnt Best practice design criteria

Reflect and limit investment risks: risk-conscious (triple-A) policies

increase growth and reduce support costs by up to 50%

• Tailor support scheme to RE market deployment status and electricity market readiness

• No abrupt or retroactive policy changes• Avoid rigid budget or capacity caps• Simple, transparent permitting process • Priority grid access and dispatch• Quota: long term horizon and serious penalties• Government facilitates access to capital (e.g.

participation, financial guarantees, loans)

Adjust level of support to technology and market conditions

• Apply technology specific support levels• Calculate level of support based on LCOE, so

support neither too low nor too high• Planned and transparent adjustments based on

technology and market changes

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Thank you!

Prof. dr. Kornelis BlokDirector of Science

EcofysKanaalweg 15-G3526 KL Utrecht

Phone: 030-6623399 E-mail: k.blok@ecofys.comTwitter: @kornelisblok

www.ecofys.com

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sustainable energy

for everyone

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Back-up slides

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Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions

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IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation

© ECOFYS | | 11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok23

IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation

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CO2 emissions from fossil and renewable sources

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Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU