Canada-U.S. Trade/Traffic Statistics

1972-2009

Transport Canada

Economic Analysis

October 27, 2010

2

Data sources

• Merchandise trade: • Statistics Canada trade statistics based on customs

declarations collected by Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) [Imports] and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) [Exports]

• Vehicle Traffic:• Statistics Canada’s International Travel Survey. Data

are built on two sources:• Frontier Counts, a census of all travellers who enter into

Canada, at all points of entry, supplied by CBSA• Mail-back questionnaire which provides further detail on

foreign travel characteristics (e.g. duration of trip)

Merchandise Trade1988-2009

4

Trends in Total Canadian Trade: 1988-2009

Trade (Exports+Imports) with the U.S. trebled from 1991-2000 but levelled off during the past decade and then plunged with the current recession. Trade with China increased by a factor of ten from $4 billion in 1991 to $51 billion in 2009.

5

Canada’s Trade With The World: 2004/2009 Comparison

6

Trends in Canada/US Trade by Mode: 1988-2009

Trade carried by the road mode skyrocketed from 1991-2000 but has fallen by 30% from the peak. Trade carried by Other modes (mostly Pipelines) increased by a factor of 10 from 1991-2008

7

Canada/US Trade – Modal Shares: 2009

The market share of the road mode has fallen by 10 points since 1998 while Other (largely pipelines) has risen by nearly 10 points since 2000

8

Top-5 commodity groups in Canada/US road trade

Trade in Automotive, Machinery, and Manufactured goods carried by the road mode grew strongly during the 1990s but has since declined

9

Top-5 commodity groups in Canada/US rail trade

Automotive trade handled by rail grew by a factor of 5 from 1991-2000 but has declined by 50% since the peak. Forestry products have declined by nearly 60% since 2000

10

Trends in Exports to other countries: 1988-2009

Exports to other countries have grown considerably over the past decade. Manufactured goods exports have doubled since 2000

11

Trends in Imports from other countries: 1988-2009

Imports of machinery and manufactured goods from other countries have grown by a factor of three since 1991.

12

Trends in Canada/US Trade via Ambassador Bridge: 1988-2009

Trade in automotive, machinery and manufactured goods via Ambassador Bridge peaked in 2000 and fell by up to 50% by 2009

Cross-Border Vehicle Traffic 1972-2009

14

Overall trends in cross-border vehicle activity, 1972-2009

• Car volumes account for majority of activity at border (over 90% of the total up to 1990 and then low 80% after 2000)

• Truck volumes displayed four distinct growth trends over the period:• 1972-1981: 2.1% annual growth • 1982-1991: 4.8% annual growth• 1991-2000: 7.5% annual growth (trade liberalisation bounce)• 2000-2009: -3.6% annual decline (Saturation/ Security/

Recession)

• Car volumes less affected by economic cycles – more by exchange rate changes and local conditions in communities close to border• Car activity peaked in 1991, has been declining since

15

Cross-border car/truck traffic, 1972-2009

Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section.Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

16

Composition of cross-border car/truck traffic, 1972-2009

Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section.Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

17

Composition of car traffic, by nationality, 1972-2009

• Few differences in the amount of cross-border travel by Canadian and American travelers from 1972-1982• Exception was from 1980-1981 when a large spike in U.S.

activity was observed• Largely owing to fuel shortages in the U.S. at the time

• Trends diverged widely during the 1980s• Canadian trips to U.S. doubled between 1982 and 1991; U.S.

unchanged• Series dominated by cross-border shopping “craze” driven

by appreciation of Canadian dollar

• Since 1991, trends reversed:• 40% increase in trips by Americans to 2000 then steady decline• Huge reduction in Canadian trips back to mid-80s levels; some

bounce back with the stronger dollar after 2002

18

Cross-border car traffic, by nationality, 1972-2009

Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section.Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

19

Composition of car traffic, by type of trip, 1972-2009

• Same-day travel accounts for a majority of the crossings but has changed dramatically over the period. • Accounted for over 75% of the crossings from 1980-

2000• Has plunged for Canadians since 1990 peak (5:1

ratio is now 2.5:1) and since 2000 for Americans (ratio was 3.5:1 and now is 1.5:1)

• Overnight travel has been stable over the period• Averaged about 3.5 million crossings annually for

U.S. and Canadian travellers• Split between travellers influenced by exchange rate

20

Cross-border car traffic, by trip type, 1972-2009

Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section.Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

21

Ratio of Same-day to Overnight travel, by nationality, 1972-2009

Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section.Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

22

Car Traffic, Selected Crossings, 1972-2009

Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section.Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

Casino traffic from U.S

23

Composition of Truck Traffic, by Nationality, 1972-2003

• Canadian trucking cross-border activity higher than U.S. counterparts throughout observed period

• Gap has widened since trade liberalization • In 1991, Canadian activity was 33% higher• By 2000, Canadian activity was over 2 times higher • Canadian and U.S. crossing activity has fallen nearly 30%

since 2000.

24

Cross-border truck traffic by nationality, 1972-2009

Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section.Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.

25

Truck Traffic, Selected Crossings, 1972-2009

Source: Statistics Canada, International travel section.Note: Data refer to vehicles entering Canada.