ICAO Long-Term Traffic Forecasts · Canada United States . World map of Long Term Forecasts Regions. Summary of Passenger Traffic Forecasts by Route Group Passenger traffic results

INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION

Pa enger and Cargo

ICAO Long-Term Traffic Forecasts

INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION

ICAO Long-Term Traffic Forecasts

Passenger and Cargo

April 2018

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Central Southwest Asia Domestic

North America

Intra Europe

China & South West Asia - PacificSouth East Asia

Central Southwest Asia - Middle East

Europe - North America

Central Southwest Asia - Europe

Pacific South East Asia

Central Southwest Asia - NorthAmerica

Intra Pacific South East Asia

Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) (billion)

2045 2035 2015

6.0%

2.5%

2.6%

6.1%

6.5%

2.6%

5.1%

5.2%

5.3%

5.2%

6.7%

2.6%

2.7%

6.6%

6.8%

2.8%

5.5%

5.3%

5.9%

5.4%

12.3%

2.7%

8.8%

7.5%

10.0%

3.3%

7.5%

7.6%

7.1%

4.7%

CAGR*

2015-2045 2015-2035 1995-2015

WORLD

Total passenger traffic: history and forecasts

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Forecast. Passenger traffic by route group by region: 2015 vs. 2035 and 2015 vs. 2045

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Africa - Middle East

Europe - North Africa

Europe - Sub Saharan Africa

Intra Africa

Africa Domestic

Africa - Asia/Pacific

Africa - North America

Africa & Middle East - SouthAmerica

Africa & Middle East - CentralAmerica/Caribbean


2045 2035 2015

4.6%

4.1%

2.8%

5.9%

5.9%

4.7%

2.9%

3.9%

4.8%

4.5%

4.3%

2.9%

5.8%

5.8%

5.0%

2.9%

3.8%

4.3%

11.5%

8.1%

3.9%

6.2%

3.8%

7.0%

7.5%

11.0%

12.7%

CAGR*

2015-2045 2015-2035 1995-2015

AFRICA


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Central Southwest Asia Domestic

Central Southwest Asia - Pacific SouthEast Asia



Pacific South East Asia Domestic


Intra Pacific South East Asia

Central Southwest Asia - North Asia

Middle East - North Asia & PacificSouth East Asia

Europe - Pacific South East Asia

North Asia - Pacific South East Asia

Intra Central Southwest Asia

North America - North Asia

North America - Pacific South EastAsia

Europe - North Asia

North Asia Domestic

Africa - Asia/Pacific

Intra North Asia

Latin America/Caribbean - North Asia& Pacific South East Asia

Latin America/Caribbean - CentralSouthwest Asia


2045 2035 2015

6.0%

6.1%

6.5%

5.1%

5.2%

5.3%

5.2%

6.8%

4.0%

4.4%

4.1%

6.3%

2.3%

4.3%

2.4%

1.7%

4.7%

1.7%

4.4%

5.3%

6.7%

6.6%

6.8%

5.5%

5.3%

5.9%

5.4%

7.2%

4.0%

4.5%

4.0%

6.9%

2.4%

4.4%

2.5%

1.7%

5.0%

1.7%

4.2%

5.4%

12.3%

7.5%

10.0%

7.5%

7.6%

7.1%

4.7%

6.7%

11.7%

3.0%

3.5%

9.2%

0.9%

3.9%

2.7%

1.3%

7.0%

3.7%

9.1%

0.0%

CAGR*

2015-2045 2015-2035 1995-2015

ASIA AND PACIFIC


0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Intra Europe



Europe - Middle East

Europe Domestic

Europe - Pacific South East Asia

Europe - South America

Central America/Caribbean - Europe

Europe - North Africa

Europe - Sub Saharan Africa

Europe - North Asia


2045 2035 2015

2.6%

2.6%

5.1%

4.0%

2.6%

4.4%

4.1%

3.8%

4.1%

2.8%

2.4%

2.7%

2.8%

5.5%

4.2%

2.7%

4.5%

4.2%

4.4%

4.3%

2.9%

2.5%

8.8%

3.3%

7.5%

9.0%

2.8%

3.0%

5.8%

7.3%

8.1%

3.9%

2.7%

CAGR*

2015-2045 2012-2035 1995-2015

EUROPE


0 100 200 300 400 500

Central America/Caribbean - NorthAmerica

Europe - South America

South America Domestic

North America - South America

Central America/Caribbean - Europe

Central America/Caribbean Domestic

Central America/Caribbean - SouthAmerica

Intra South America

Intra Central America/Caribbean

Africa & Middle East - South America

Latin America/Caribbean - CentralSouthwest Asia



2045 2035 2015

3.6%

4.1%

3.3%

3.9%

3.8%

4.5%

4.4%

3.3%

4.5%

3.9%

5.3%

4.8%

4.0%

4.2%

3.1%

4.0%

4.4%

4.3%

3.6%

3.1%

4.3%

3.8%

5.4%

4.3%

6.8%

5.8%

8.5%

4.6%

7.3%

5.9%

10.5%

6.4%

4.0%

11.0%

0.0%

12.7%

CAGR*

2015-2045 2015-2035 1995-2015

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN


0 350 700 1,050 1,400


Europe - Middle East

Middle East - North Asia & PacificSouth East Asia

Africa - Middle East

Middle East - North America

Intra Middle East

Middle East

Africa & Middle East - South America



2045 2035 2015

6.5%

4.0%

4.0%

4.6%

3.6%

3.4%

3.4%

3.9%

4.8%

6.8%

4.2%

4.0%

4.5%

3.8%

3.6%

3.6%

3.8%

4.3%

10.0%

9.0%

11.7%

11.5%

12.6%

10.5%

5.4%

11.0%

12.7%

CAGR*

2015-2045 2015-2035 1995-2015

MIDDLE EAST


0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

North America Domestic



Central America/Caribbean - NorthAmerica

North America - South America

Middle East - North America

North America - North Asia

North America - Pacific South EastAsia

Intra North America

Africa - North America


2045 2035 2015

2.5%

2.6%

5.3%

3.6%

3.9%

3.6%

2.3%

4.3%

2.5%

2.9%

2.6%

2.8%

5.9%

4.0%

4.0%

3.8%

2.4%

4.4%

2.6%

2.9%

2.7%

3.3%

7.1%

6.8%

4.6%

12.6%

0.9%

3.9%

4.9%

7.5%

CAGR*

2015-2045 2015-2035 1995-2015

NORTH AMERICA


DEFINITON OF REGIONS

AFRICA

North Africa

Algeria Morocco Egypt Tunisia Libya

Sub Saharan Africa

Benin Madagascar Botswana Malawi Burkina Faso Mali Burundi Mauritania Cabo Verde Mauritius Cameroon Mozambique Central African Republic Namibia Chad Niger Comoros Nigeria Congo Rwanda Côte d'Ivoire Sao Tome and Principe Democratic Republic of the Congo Senegal Djibouti Seychelles Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone Eritrea Somalia Ethiopia South Africa Gabon South Sudan Gambia Sudan Ghana Swaziland Guinea Togo Guinea-Bissau Uganda Kenya United Republic of Tanzania Lesotho Zambia Liberia Zimbabwe

ASIA AND PACIFIC

Central and South-West Asia

Afghanistan Myanmar

Bangladesh Nepal

Bhutan Pakistan

China Sri Lanka

India Tajikistan

Kazakhstan Turkmenistan

Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan

Mongolia

North Asia

Democratic People's Republic of Korea Japan Republic of Korea

Pacific South-East Asia

Australia Palau Brunei Darussalam Papua New Guinea Cambodia Philippines Cook Islands Samoa Fiji Singapore Indonesia Solomon Islands Kiribati Thailand Lao People's Democratic Republic Tonga Malaysia Vanuatu Maldives Viet Nam Marshall Islands Micronesia (Federated States of) Nauru Timor-Leste New Zealand

EUROPE

Albania Lithuania Andorra Luxembourg Armenia Malta Austria Monaco Azerbaijan Montenegro Belarus Netherlands Belgium Norway Bosnia and Herzegovina Poland Bulgaria Portugal Croatia Republic of Moldova Cyprus Romania Czech Republic Russian Federation Denmark San Marino Estonia Serbia Finland Slovakia France Slovenia Georgia Spain Germany Sweden Greece Switzerland Hungary The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Iceland Turkey Ireland Ukraine Italy United Kingdom Latvia

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Central America/ Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda Haiti Bahamas Honduras Barbados Jamaica Belize Mexico Costa Rica Nicaragua Cuba Panama Dominican Republic Saint Kitts and Nevis El Salvador Saint Lucia Grenada Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Guatemala Trinidad and Tobago

South America

Argentina Guyana Bolivia (Plurinational State of) Paraguay Brazil Peru Chile Suriname Colombia Uruguay Ecuador Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

MIDDLE EAST

Bahrain Oman Iran (Islamic Republic of) Qatar Iraq Saudi Arabia Israel Syrian Arab Republic Jordan United Arab Emirates Kuwait Yemen Lebanon

NORTH AMERICA

Canada United States

World map of Long Term Forecasts Regions

Summary of Passenger Traffic Forecasts by Route Group

Passenger traffic results in terms of RPKs

Region / Region-pair

CAGR*

10 Year 20 Year 30 Year

(2015-2025) (2015-2035) (2015-2045)

Africa - Asia/Pacific 5.0% 5.0% 4.7%

Africa - Middle East 4.0% 4.5% 4.6%

Africa - North America 2.5% 2.9% 2.9%

Africa & Middle East - Central America/Caribbean 3.7% 4.3% 4.8%

Africa & Middle East - South America 3.1% 3.8% 3.9%

Africa Domestic 5.1% 5.8% 5.9%

Central America/Caribbean - Europe 3.9% 4.4% 3.8%

Central America/Caribbean - North America 3.6% 4.0% 3.6%

Central America/Caribbean - South America 2.6% 3.6% 4.4%

Central America/Caribbean Domestic 3.5% 4.3% 4.5%

Central South West Asia - North America 5.9% 5.9% 5.3%

Central South West Asia - North Asia 7.4% 7.2% 6.8%

Central South West Asia - Pacific South East Asia 7.2% 6.6% 6.1%

Central South West Asia - Europe 5.3% 5.5% 5.1%

Central South West Asia - Middle East 7.0% 6.8% 6.5%

Central South West Asia Domestic 7.5% 6.7% 6.0%

Europe - Middle East 3.8% 4.2% 4.0%

Europe - North Africa 3.9% 4.3% 4.1%

Europe - North America 2.5% 2.8% 2.6%

Europe - North Asia 2.1% 2.5% 2.4%

Europe - Pacific South East Asia 4.1% 4.5% 4.4%

Europe - South America 3.6% 4.2% 4.1%

Europe - Sub Saharan Africa 2.5% 2.9% 2.8%

Europe Domestic 2.4% 2.7% 2.6%

Intra Africa 5.1% 5.8% 5.9%

Intra Central America/Caribbean 3.5% 4.3% 4.5%

Intra China & South West Asia 7.7% 6.9% 6.3%

Intra Europe 2.4% 2.7% 2.6%

Intra Middle East 3.4% 3.6% 3.4%

Intra North America 2.4% 2.6% 2.5%

Intra North Asia 1.1% 1.7% 1.7%

Intra Pacific South East Asia 5.3% 5.4% 5.2%

Intra South America 2.0% 3.1% 3.3%

Latin America/Caribbean - Central South West Asia 5.6% 5.4% 5.3%

Latin America/Caribbean - North Asia & Pacific South East Asia 3.3% 4.2% 4.4%

Middle East - North America 3.5% 3.8% 3.6%

Middle East - North Asia & Pacific South East Asia 3.4% 4.0% 4.0%

Middle East Domestic 3.4% 3.6% 3.4%

North America - North Asia 2.0% 2.4% 2.3%

North America - Pacific South East Asia 4.1% 4.4% 4.3%

North America - South America 3.5% 4.0% 3.9%

North America Domestic 2.4% 2.6% 2.5%

North Asia - Pacific South East Asia 3.3% 4.0% 4.1%

North Asia Domestic 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% Pacific South East Asia Domestic 5.3% 5.3% 5.2%

South America Domestic 2.0% 3.1% 3.3%

World Total 4.1% 4.3% 4.1%


Summary of Total Cargo Traffic Forecasts by Region of Airline Registration

(Scheduled Services)

Cargo traffic results in terms of FTKs

Region CAGR*

2015-2025 2015-2035 2015-2045

Africa 3.4% 3.8% 3.9%

Asia and Pacific 4.9% 4.3% 3.9%

Europe 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%

Latin America and the Caribbean 1.4% 1.6% 1.6%

Middle East 5.6% 5.7% 5.4%

North America 3.2% 2.8% 2.6%

WORLD 4.1% 3.9% 3.6%


Documents

ICAO Long-Term Traffic Forecasts · Canada United States . World map of Long Term Forecasts Regions. Summary of Passenger Traffic Forecasts by Route Group Passenger traffic results