Stratford Manufacturing Facility Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) … · 2020. 11. 17. · Xinyi Canada Glass Limited i Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study

Stratford Manufacturing Facility

Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft)

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited

Stratford Manufacturing Facility Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) Xinyi Canada Glass Limited

R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited 332 Lorne Avenue East Stratford ON N5A 6S4 CANADA

September 2019 300043906.0000

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited i Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019

R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited 300043906.0000 043906_TIS.docx

Distribution List

No. of Hard

Copies PDF Email Organization Name

0 Yes Yes Xinyi Canada Glass Limited, GSP Group Inc.

Record of Revisions

Revision Date Description 0 May 10, 2019 Initial Submission to Client and Planning

Consultant 1 September 13, 2019 Final Draft TIS

R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited

Report Prepared By:

Jonah Lester Engineering Assistant JBL:ls

Report Reviewed By:

Henry Centen, P.Eng. Senior Transportation Engineer HC:ls

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited ii Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019


Executive Summary

R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited (Burnside) was retained by Xinyi Canada Glass Limited (Xinyi) to undertake a Transportation Impact Study for a proposed manufacturing facility located in the southwest quadrant of the intersection of Highway 7 and Line 29 (formerly Gibb Road), currently in the Township of Perth South.

The development site is proposed to include a manufacturing facility of approximately 3,000,000 sq. ft. (assumed) with some additional office space and ancillary structures. Development is proposed in two phases (Phase 1 with approximately 1,800,000 sq. ft. and Phase 2 with an additional 1,200,000 sq. ft.), however, since both phases are anticipated to be complete within a five-year timeframe, this study has focused on the full build-out condition (i.e., Phase 1 + Phase 2).

Site access is proposed via two full movement accesses: one on Highway 7, referred to as the East Access, and one on Line 29, referred to as the North Access. The North Access is proposed to be the employee entrance with stop sign control, while the East Access is proposed to be signalized, to serve the plant’s trucking operations.

The proposed development is located within lands that are being considered for annexation from the Township of Perth South (Perth South) into the City of Stratford (City). This report is prepared to support Xinyi’s proposed site development, while also taking into consideration the potential development of the City’s proposed annexation lands and other currently undeveloped industrial lands in the City, including any associated Official Plan Amendments and Zoning By-law Amendments for the Xinyi site.

The subject site and proposed annexation lands are shown in Figure ES-1. The remainder of the proposed annexation lands (i.e., annexation lands outside of proposed Xinyi site) are labelled as Parcel B and Parcel D. Parcel C is land already within the City and it is assumed that it would be developed in conjunction with Parcel B. The development of Parcels B, C and D were included in the future background traffic forecasts in this study, assuming an industrial park type of land use.

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited iii Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019


Figure ES-1: Site Location and Proposed Annexation Lands

Traffic forecasts were prepared and analyzed for 2024, 2029 and 2034 horizon years and based on the analysis, we offer the following conclusions and recommendations:

Under existing conditions, all study area intersections operate well during the AM and PM peak hours with excess capacity and acceptable levels of service.

A northbound left turn lane is warranted with 25 m of storage on Highway 7 at Line 29 based on existing traffic conditions.

Traffic signals are not currently warranted at any of the study area intersections.

In addition to a 1% per annum background growth rate applied to traffic in the study area, the future background traffic accounted for the development of existing industrial lands in Stratford and the remainder of the proposed annexation lands (i.e. outside of the Xinyi site), by horizon year 2034. Ultimately, the background developments are estimated to generate 923 total trips during the AM peak hour (750 in and 173 out) and 923 total trips in the PM peak hour (194 in and 729 out).

Under future background traffic conditions, traffic signals are forecasted to be warranted at the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection by 2029.

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited iv Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019


Under future background traffic conditions, some movements at the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection are forecasted to have poor operations by 2024 (e.g., the eastbound approach is forecasted to be over capacity, v/c ratio of 1.07, during the PM peak hour), with the operations of these movements continuing to worsen in subsequent horizon years. The introduction of traffic signals and left turn lanes on all approaches is forecasted to return this intersection to good operations throughout the ultimate 2034 horizon period, with all movements operating at LOS C or better.

Under future background traffic conditions, the Line 29 / Dunn Road and Line 29 / Durkin Street intersections will operate acceptably throughout the full horizon period, however, by 2029, a westbound left turn lane may be warranted on Line 29 at Dunn Road with 15 m of storage (assuming Dunn Road is extended south of Line 29 to serve Parcel D). However, the warrants for a left turn lane at this intersection should be reassessed once specific details of the development of Parcel D are available, to confirm if the assumed ITE Business Park trip generation rates are consistent with the actual developments subsequently proposed.

The proposed Xinyi development is estimated to generate up to 480 total trips in the AM peak hour (370 in and 110 out) and 260 total trips in the PM peak hour (0 in and 260 out). These trips were assigned to the study area road network and added to the future background traffic volumes to forecast future total traffic volumes.

Under future total traffic conditions, traffic signals are warranted at the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection by 2024, and the need for traffic signals is also confirmed by the intersection operational analysis, which shows that the eastbound approach will be significantly over capacity during the peak hours in this timeframe. As with the future background traffic conditions, the introduction of traffic signals and left turn lanes on all approaches will produce good operations at the intersection throughout the 2034 horizon period. The only additional requirement for the future total traffic condition would be some increased storage lengths for the left turn lanes (northbound increases to 70 m from 20 m and eastbound increases to 65 m from 35 m).

Under future total traffic conditions, the Line 29 / Dunn Road intersection operations are acceptable throughout 2029, but by 2034, the northbound and southbound movements are forecasted to be over capacity. Traffic signal warrants are not technically met for the 2034 total traffic conditions at this intersection, however the introduction of traffic signals and left turn lanes on all approaches may be considered to maintain acceptable operations in the long-term. While still an unsignalized intersection, the future total traffic condition will warrant additional storage length with an increase to 25 m from the 15 m that was forecasted to be required for the future background traffic condition. However, the warrants for a left turn lane at this intersection should be reassessed once specific details of the development of Parcel D are available, to confirm if the assumed ITE Business Park trip generation rates are consistent with the actual developments subsequently proposed.

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited v Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019


To provide the necessary functionality for Xinyi’s truck access, it is recommended that the proposed East Access on Highway 7 be signalized with the addition of a northbound left turn lane. A left turn lane storage length of 25 m is recommended for the left turn lane, with the deceleration lane and runout lane designed to meet the criteria in the MTO Design Supplement for TAC Geometric Design Guide for Canadian Roads – June 2017.

To meet Transport Canada’s Grade Crossing Standards, the proposed North Access must be located at least 30 m from the CN rail line (i.e., distance measured from the edge of the travelled way on the access to the nearest rail). We recommend that the East Access be located at least 90 m east of the rail line to provide sufficient spacing for a runout lane/taper since the North Access will meet warrants for a westbound left turn lane with 15 m of storage in 2024. The deceleration lane and runout lane at this intersection should be designed to meet the criteria in the TAC Geometric Design Guide for Canadian Roads – June 2017.

The existing at-grade rail crossing warning system on Line 29 (reflectorized crossbucks, flashing lights, bell and gates) will provide sufficient protection for the anticipated road and rail traffic forecasts. Also, no queuing concerns are expected between the rail crossing and nearby intersections/accesses.

Since a northbound left turn lane is currently warranted on Highway 7 at Line 29, we recommend that the left turn lane be implemented in the immediate future (including an opposing southbound left turn lane). The need for traffic signals at this intersection should be monitored once the Xinyi plant becomes operational, and when warranted, based on traffic signal warrants or poor intersection operations, traffic signals and left turn lanes on Line 29 should be constructed. For the northbound and southbound left turn lanes, storage lengths of 70 m and 15 m, respectively, would cover the long-term storage needs in both the unsignalized and signalized condition. The deceleration lanes and runout lanes at this intersection should be designed to meet the criteria in the MTO Design Supplement for TAC Geometric Design Guide for Canadian Roads – June 2017.

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited vi Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019


Table of Contents

1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Scope of Work ............................................................................................. 2 1.3 Intersection Analysis Methodology .............................................................. 3

2.0 Existing Conditions ............................................................................................. 4 2.1 Site Context ................................................................................................. 4 2.2 Existing Road Network ................................................................................. 5 2.3 Transit Services ........................................................................................... 6 2.4 Existing Traffic Volumes .............................................................................. 7

2.4.1 Traffic Signal Warrant Analysis (Existing Traffic) ............................. 8 2.4.2 Left Turn Lane Warrant Analysis (Existing Traffic) ........................... 9

2.5 Existing Traffic Operations ........................................................................... 9 3.0 Future Background Conditions........................................................................ 10

3.1 Background Traffic Growth ........................................................................ 10 3.2 Background Developments ........................................................................ 11

3.2.1 Remainder of Proposed Annexation Lands and Erie Street Industrial Lands .............................................................................. 11

3.2.2 Wright Business Park ..................................................................... 15 3.3 Background Development Traffic ............................................................... 16 3.4 Future Road Network ................................................................................. 18 3.5 Future Background Traffic Volumes .......................................................... 19

3.5.1 Traffic Signal Warrants (Future Background Traffic) ...................... 21 3.5.2 Left Turn Lane Warrants (Future Background Traffic) ................... 21

3.6 Future Background Traffic Operations ....................................................... 21 3.7 Potential Operational Improvements (Future Background Traffic) ............. 23

4.0 Proposed Development .................................................................................... 25 4.1 Site Plan ..................................................................................................... 25 4.2 Trip Generation .......................................................................................... 27 4.3 Trip Distribution and Assignment ............................................................... 27 4.4 Site Access Considerations ....................................................................... 29

4.4.1 North Access (Line 29) ................................................................... 29 4.4.2 East Access (Highway 7) ............................................................... 29

5.0 Future Total Conditions .................................................................................... 30 5.1 Future Total Traffic Volumes ...................................................................... 30

5.1.1 Traffic Signal Warrants (Future Total Traffic) ................................. 32 5.1.2 Left Turn Lane Warrants (Future Total Traffic) ............................... 32

5.2 Future Total Traffic Operations .................................................................. 33 5.3 Potential Operational Improvements (Future Total Traffic) ........................ 37

6.0 Rail Crossing Considerations .......................................................................... 40 7.0 Conclusions and Recommendations .............................................................. 41

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited vii Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019


Tables Table 1: Existing Intersection Operations ...................................................................... 10 Table 2: Historical Highway 7 Annual Average Daily Traffic Volumes ........................... 11 Table 3: Parcels B, C and D Trip Generation ................................................................. 13 Table 4: Parcel D Trip Distribution ................................................................................. 13 Table 5: Parcels B and C Trip Distribution ..................................................................... 14 Table 6: Wright Business Park New Trip Generation ..................................................... 15 Table 7: Wright Business Park Trip Distribution ............................................................. 16 Table 8: 2024 Background Traffic Intersection Operations ............................................ 22 Table 9: 2029 Background Traffic Intersection Operations ............................................ 22 Table 10: 2034 Background Traffic Intersection Operations .......................................... 23 Table 11: Highway 7 & Line 29 Signalized Intersection Operations (Background Traffic, with Improvements) ......................................................................................................... 24 Table 12: Site Trip Generation ....................................................................................... 27 Table 13: Xinyi Employee Trip Distribution .................................................................... 28 Table 14: Summary of Left Turn Lane Warrants and Storage Requirements (Unsignalized Condition) ................................................................................................. 33 Table 15: 2024 Total Traffic Intersection Operations ..................................................... 34 Table 16: 2029 Total Traffic Intersection Operations ..................................................... 35 Table 17: 2034 Total Traffic Intersection Operations ..................................................... 36 Table 18: Highway 7 & Line 29 Signalized Intersection Operations (Total Traffic, with Improvements) ................................................................................................................ 38 Table 19: Line 29 & Dunn Road Signalized Intersection Operations (Total Traffic, with Improvements) ................................................................................................................ 39 Table 20: Summary of Forecasted Intersection Improvement Requirements ................ 44

Figures Figure 1: Site Location ..................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2: Existing Road Network and Lane Configuration ............................................... 6 Figure 3: City of Stratford Transit Map Excerpt – Route #7 Industrial .............................. 7 Figure 4: Existing Traffic Volumes ................................................................................... 8 Figure 5: Proposed Annexation Lands ........................................................................... 12 Figure 6: Parcel D Development Traffic ......................................................................... 14 Figure 7: Parcels B and C Development Traffic ............................................................. 15 Figure 8: Wright Business Park Development Traffic ..................................................... 16 Figure 9: 2024 Background Development Traffic ........................................................... 17 Figure 10: 2029 Background Development Traffic ......................................................... 17 Figure 11: 2034 Background Development Traffic ......................................................... 18 Figure 12: 2024 Background Traffic Volumes ................................................................ 19 Figure 13: 2029 Background Traffic Volumes ................................................................ 20 Figure 14: 2034 Background Traffic Volumes ................................................................ 20 Figure 15: Site Plan ........................................................................................................ 26

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited viii Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019


Figure 16: Site Traffic ..................................................................................................... 28 Figure 17: 2024 Total Traffic Volumes ........................................................................... 30 Figure 18: 2029 Total Traffic Volumes ........................................................................... 31 Figure 19: 2034 Total Traffic Volumes ........................................................................... 31

Appendices Appendix A Traffic Count Data Appendix B Existing Traffic Signal and Left Turn Lane Warrants Appendix C Existing Traffic Operations Appendix D Traffic Signal and Left Turn Lane Warrants for Background Traffic

Conditions Appendix E Future Background Traffic Operations Appendix F Future Background Traffic Operations With Improvements Appendix G Traffic Signal and Left Turn Lane Warrants for Total Traffic Conditions Appendix H Future Total Traffic Operations Appendix I Future Total Traffic Operations With Improvements

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited ix Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019


Disclaimer

Other than by the addressee, copying or distribution of this document, in whole or in part, is not permitted without the express written consent of R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited.

In the preparation of the various instruments of service contained herein, R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited was required to use and rely upon various sources of information (including but not limited to: reports, data, drawings, observations) produced by parties other than R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited. For its part R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited has proceeded based on the belief that the third party/parties in question produced this documentation using accepted industry standards and best practices and that all information was therefore accurate, correct and free of errors at the time of consultation. As such, the comments, recommendations and materials presented in this instrument of service reflect our best judgment in light of the information available at the time of preparation. R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited, its employees, affiliates and subcontractors accept no liability for inaccuracies or errors in the instruments of service provided to the client, arising from deficiencies in the aforementioned third party materials and documents.

Xinyi Canada Glass Limited 1 Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) September 2019


1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background

R.J. Burnside & Associates Limited (Burnside) was retained by Xinyi Canada Glass Limited (Xinyi) to undertake a Transportation Impact Study for a proposed manufacturing facility located in the southwest quadrant of the intersection of Highway 7 and Line 29 (formerly Gibb Road), currently in the Township of Perth South.

The development site is proposed to include a manufacturing facility of approximately 3,000,000 sq. ft. (assumed) with some additional office space and ancillary structures. Development is proposed in two phases (Phase 1 with approximately 1,800,000 sq. ft. and Phase 2 with an additional 1,200,000 sq. ft.), however, since both phases are anticipated to be complete within a five-year timeframe, this study has focused on the full build-out condition (i.e., Phase 1 + Phase 2). The assumed size of these facilities is estimated in this study, to provide an order of magnitude of the development concept, however the final square footage may vary. Since the traffic estimates in this study have not been based on square footage of building space, but on forecasts of operational numbers (i.e., employee numbers and trucking requirements), adjustment to the building sizes will not materially impact the traffic analysis.

Access is proposed via an exclusive truck access on Highway 7 and an entrance on Line 29 for employee access and office deliveries. The location of the site is shown in Figure 1.



Figure 1: Site Location

Source: Google Maps

The proposed development is located within lands that are being considered for annexation from the Township of Perth South (Perth South) into the City of Stratford (City). This report is prepared to support Xinyi’s proposed site development, while also taking into consideration the potential development of the City’s proposed annexation lands and other currently undeveloped industrial lands in the City, including any associated Official Plan Amendments and Zoning By-law Amendments for the Xinyi site.

1.2 Scope of Work

The study scope of work was confirmed with the City and the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) and is summarized below.

Analysis Scenarios Existing traffic conditions 2024 background and total traffic conditions 2029 background and total traffic conditions 2034 background and total traffic conditions



Analysis Time Periods Weekday AM peak hour (7:00 – 9:00 AM) Weekday PM peak hour (4:00 – 6:00 PM)

Analysis Intersections Highway 7 / Line 29 Highway 7 / Proposed Site Access (East Access) Line 29 / Dunn Road Line 29 / Proposed Site Access (North Access) Line 29 / Durkin Street

Trip Generation Site traffic estimated based on operational estimates

for staffing, shift sizes and shift schedule. Annexation lands and currently undeveloped existing

industrial lands - traffic estimated based on Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) trip generation rates for Industrial Park use.

Traffic Analysis Parameters

Synchro software used for operational analysis (based on Highway Capacity Manual methodology)

Background Developments and Capital Works

The development of the proposed annexation lands have been accounted for as future background development traffic.

The remaining undeveloped land within the Wright Business Park on Wright Boulevard (total of 26 acres) has also been included in the future background development traffic.

No other planned capital works or specific developments have been accounted for in this study.

1.3 Intersection Analysis Methodology

Intersection operations were assessed for intersections in the study area using the software program Synchro 9, which employs methodology from the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM2000 and HCM 2010), published by the Transportation Research Board National Research Council. Synchro 9 can analyze both signalized and unsignalized intersections in a road corridor or network, accounting for the spacing, interaction, queues and operations between intersections.

The signalized intersection analysis considers two separate measures of performance:

The capacity of all intersection movements, which is based on a volume to capacity ratio (v/c), that measures the degree of capacity utilized.



The level of service (LOS) for all intersection movements, which is based on the average control delay per vehicle for the various movements through the intersection and for the overall intersection. Delay is an indicator of how long a vehicle must wait to complete a movement and is represented by a letter between A and F, with F being the longest delay. The link between LOS and delay (in seconds) for signalized intersections is summarized below.

Level of Service Control Delay per Vehicle(s) A ≤10 B > 10 – 20 C > 20 – 35 D > 35 – 55 E > 55 – 80 F > 80

The two-way unsignalized intersection analysis considers two separate measures of performance:

The capacity of the intersection’s critical movements, which is based on a volume to capacity ratio (v/c).

The level of service for the critical movements, which is based on the average control delay per vehicle for the various critical movements within the intersection. The link between LOS and delay (in seconds) for unsignalized intersections is summarized below.

Level of Service Control Delay per Vehicle(s) A 0 – 10 B > 10 – 15 C > 15 – 25 D > 25 – 35 E > 35 – 50 F > 50

2.0 Existing Conditions

2.1 Site Context

The subject site is currently agricultural land bounded by Highway 7 to the east, Line 29 to the north, the CN rail line to the west, and further agricultural land to the south. North of the site (north of Line 29) the existing land use is industrial.



2.2 Existing Road Network

The existing road network within the study area is described below.

Highway 7 (and Erie Street)

Highway 7 is a King’s Highway, under the jurisdiction of the MTO, consisting of a two-lane rural cross section (one lane per direction). It has a posted speed limit of 80 km/h to the south of Line 29. To the north of Line 29, Highway 7 becomes Erie Street, the Highway 7 connecting link through Stratford, with a posted speed limit of 60 km/h. It is classified as an arterial road within the City’s Official Plan. There are no pedestrian facilities on Highway 7 or Erie Street within the study area.

Line 29 (formerly Gibb Road)

Line 29 is an east-west local road, with a two-lane rural cross section (one lane per direction). It is a boundary road between the City of Stratford and the Township of Perth South. It has a posted speed limit of 60 km/h. There is currently an asphalt trail in the north boulevard between Dunn Road and Durkin Street. It is noted that to the east of Highway 7, Line 29 is subject to springtime half load restrictions (5 tonnes per axle) from March 1 to April 30.

Dunn Road Dunn Road is a north-south road that runs parallel to Highway 7 between Line 29 and Packham Avenue. If has a two-lane urban cross section (one lane per direction) with a sidewalk on the west side. It is under the jurisdiction of the City, has an assumed (unposted) speed limit of 50 km/h, and is classified as an industrial collector road.

Durkin Street Durkin Street is a north-south road that runs parallel to Dunn Road and connects to Wright Boulevard to service the Wright Business Park. It has a two-lane urban cross section (one lane per direction) without sidewalks. Durkin Street is under the jurisdiction of the City, has an assumed speed limit (unposted) of 50 km/h, and is classified as an industrial collector road.

All existing intersections within the study area are currently controlled by stop signs on the minor road approaches, as illustrated with the existing lane configurations in Figure 2.



Figure 2: Existing Road Network and Lane Configuration

2.3 Transit Services

City of Stratford Transit has one bus route servicing the study area. As shown in Figure 3, Route #7 (Industrial) passes the subject site eastbound along Line 29. Current service frequency is 30 minutes from Monday to Friday, 6:00 AM to 9:30 PM. The nearest bust stop location is currently on Wright Boulevard at Durkin Street, but there could be potential to add a bus stop on Line 29 adjacent to the site to promote transit use by Xinyi employees.



Figure 3: City of Stratford Transit Map Excerpt – Route #7 Industrial

Source: Stratford Transit System Map (April 2019)

2.4 Existing Traffic Volumes

Turning movement traffic counts were undertaken on behalf of Burnside by Ontario Traffic Inc. for the weekday AM, weekday off-peak mid-day and weekday PM peak periods at the Highway 7 / Line 29, Line 29 / Dunn Road, and Line 29 / Durkin Street intersections. The traffic counts were conducted on Wednesday, March 27, 2019 from 6:00 AM to 10:00 AM and 12:00 PM to 6:00 PM. Traffic count details are provided in Appendix A for the AM and PM peak hours.



Because the traffic counts were collected during the early Spring time of year, a seasonal adjustment factor was applied to account for the fact that traffic volumes are typically higher on Highway 7 during the Summer months. As previously discussed with the City and the MTO, a seasonal adjustment factor of +10% was applied to the existing traffic volumes at the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection (i.e., all movements). The existing (adjusted) traffic volumes are shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Existing Traffic Volumes

2.4.1 Traffic Signal Warrant Analysis (Existing Traffic)

Justification 1 (Minimum Vehicle Volume) and Justification 2 (Delay to Cross Traffic) of Ontario Traffic Manual Book 12: Traffic Signals (MTO, March 2012), herein referred to as OTM Book 12, were used to determine if traffic signals are currently warranted for the existing conditions analyzed (i.e., based on 8-hour traffic volumes). Existing traffic conditions for the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection were checked using Justification 1 and Justification 2 and it was found that traffic signals are not currently warranted (warrants are only met 69% for the Minimum Vehicle Volume warrant and only met 84% for the Delay to Cross Traffic warrant). The signal warrant analysis summary sheet for existing conditions is included in Appendix B.



2.4.2 Left Turn Lane Warrant Analysis (Existing Traffic)

Warrants for left turn lanes at the existing and proposed unsignalized intersections within the study area have been assessed based on warrant graphs contained in the MTO Design Supplement for TAC Geometric Design Guide for Canadian Roads – June 2017 (MTO Design Supplement). The warrants are based on the volume of advancing and opposing traffic, the design speed, and the percentage of left-turning vehicles. For intersections on Highway 7 the warrant analysis was based on a 100 km/h design speed (posted 80 km/h). For intersections on Line 29, the warrant analysis was based on a 70 km/h design speed (posted 60 km/h).

Left turn warrant analysis graphs for existing traffic conditions are included in Appendix C. It is noted that warrant graphs have only been prepared for intersections with advancing and opposing traffic volumes greater than 200 vehicles per hour, since volumes lower than this threshold will not meet a warrant under the traffic operational conditions forecasted for this area. The existing volumes at the Line 29 / Dunn Road and Line 29 / Durkin Street intersections fall into this category and do not currently meet warrants for left turn lanes.

For the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection, a northbound left turn lane is warranted with 25 m of left-turn storage under existing traffic conditions.

2.5 Existing Traffic Operations

Existing traffic operations were assessed based on the existing road network shown in Figure 2 and the existing traffic volumes shown in Figure 4. A summary of the existing traffic operations is provided in Table 1. The Synchro output reports for the existing traffic are provided in Appendix C.



Table 1: Existing Intersection Operations

Intersection & Movement

Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

Highway 7 & Line 29 Eastbound Left-Through-Right 0.20 20 / C 6 0.31 29 / D 10 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.15 21 / C 4 0.28 32 / D 8 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.04 1 / A 1 0.02 1 / A 1 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.00 0 / A 0 0.01 0 / A 0

Line 29 & Dunn Road Eastbound Left-Through 0.02 2 / A 0 0.01 2 / A 0

Westbound Through-Right 0.06 0 / A 0 0.04 0 / A 0 Southbound Left-Right 0.02 9 / A 1 0.07 9 / A 2

Line 29 & Durkin Street Eastbound Left-Through 0.03 2 / A 1 0.01 2 / A 0

Westbound Through-Right 0.03 0 / A 0 0.04 0 / A 0 Southbound Left-Right 0.02 10 / A 1 0.05 9 / A 1

The Synchro analysis shows that the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection currently functions well with all individual movements operating at LOS C or better during the AM peak hour and at LOS D or better during the PM peak hour.

The Line 29 / Dunn Road and Line 29 / Durkin Street intersections operate well with all movements at LOS A during both peak periods.

3.0 Future Background Conditions

Future background traffic consists of existing traffic, background traffic growth and traffic from other developments. Background traffic growth and traffic from other developments are discussed below, together with plans for the road network. As required by the City’s Transportation Impact Study Guidelines (June 2011), the future analysis considers the year of anticipated full buildout (considered five years from now) plus five and ten-year horizons, equating to 2024, 2029 and 2034 horizon years.

3.1 Background Traffic Growth

Historical Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) volumes, for Highway 7 immediately south of the Stratford city limit, were reviewed to determine historic traffic growth rates. The AADTs from 1997 to 2016 are shown in Table 2 below.



Table 2: Historical Highway 7 Annual Average Daily Traffic Volumes

Year Highway 7 AADT (Stratford Limit to Line 29) Year Highway 7 AADT (Stratford Limit to Line 29)

1997 8,800 2007 9,250 1998 8,800 2008 9,250 1999 8,850 2009 9,550 2000 8,900 2010 9,650 2001 9,400 2011 9,650 2002 9,100 2012 9,000 2003 9,250 2013 9,100 2004 9,250 2014 9,650 2005 9,250 2015 9,700 2006 9,200 2016 9,750

The data shows that over the 20-year period, the average annual growth rate on Highway 7 was approximately 0.7% per year, but more recently (five-year period), the average annual growth rate was only 0.2% per year. To keep our analysis conservative, a nominal background traffic growth rate of 1% per year was applied for our 2024, 2029 and 2034 horizon years.

3.2 Background Developments

The background developments included in the background traffic forecasts include the development of the remainder of the proposed annexation lands (i.e., annexation land outside of the proposed Xinyi site), undeveloped industrial land on the east side of Erie Street (already within the City of Stratford), and full build-out of the Wright Business Park. Details related to the assumed land use and associated trip generation for each of these developments are provided in the following subsections.

3.2.1 Remainder of Proposed Annexation Lands and Erie Street Industrial Lands

The proposed annexation lands are shown in Figure 5. The remainder of the proposed annexation lands (i.e., annexation lands outside of proposed Xinyi site) are labelled as Parcel B and Parcel D. Parcel C, which is land already within the City, is assumed to be developed in conjunction with Parcel B.



Figure 5: Proposed Annexation Lands

Parcel D has an approximate area of 40.7 hectares (100.6 acres) and it is assumed that it will be serviced by a single road connection to Line 29, opposite Dunn Road (i.e., a new south leg at the Line 29 / Dunn Road intersection).

Parcels B and C have a combined area of approximately 34.5 hectares (85.3 acres) and it is assumed this land will have road connections to Erie Street, Line 29, and Embro Road. Those new intersections were not specifically analyzed in this study, but this assumption is noted since it influenced the distribution of traffic to/from Parcels B and C through the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection.

Trip generation estimates for development of the Parcel B, C, and D lands were based upon data contained in the ITE publication Trip Generation Manual, 10th Edition. The following Land Use Code (LUC) was used in the generation of trips:

LUC 130 Industrial Park

The trip generation rates for the Industrial Park use are based on the size of the development in square feet of gross floor area. The total gross floor area was estimated



based on an assumed building coverage of 25% of the land area, which was confirmed by the City to be an appropriate assumption compared with existing industrial areas within Stratford. The resulting trip generation estimates for the Parcel B, C and D lands are summarized in Table 3.

Table 3: Parcels B, C and D Trip Generation

Weekday

AM Peak Hour Weekday

PM Peak Hour

In Out Total In Out Total

Parcel D Land 355 83 438 92 346 438

Parcels B & C Lands 301 71 372 78 294 372

Total Trips 656 154 810 170 640 810

The Industrial Park land use does not generate pass-by trips (i.e., trips that are already using the road network and passing by the site.), therefore all trips are considered new trips (i.e., additional traffic added to the road network).

The Parcel D trips were assigned to the road network based on the distributions shown in Table 4, which account for origin-destination considerations and the shortest available routing to access the arterial road network. The resulting total Parcel D traffic within the study area is shown in Figure 6.

Table 4: Parcel D Trip Distribution

To/From Via Percent Distribution

North Erie Street 35% North Dunn Road 15% South Highway 7 25%

East Line 29 10%

West Line 29 15%



Figure 6: Parcel D Development Traffic

The Parcel B & C trips were assigned to the road network based on the distributions shown in Table 5, which account for origin-destination considerations and the shortest available routing to access the arterial road network. The resulting total Parcels B and C development traffic within the study area is shown in Figure 7.

Table 5: Parcels B and C Trip Distribution


North Erie Street 45% South Highway 7 25%

East Line 29 15%

West Line 29 15%



Figure 7: Parcels B and C Development Traffic

3.2.2 Wright Business Park

The other background development considered was the build-out of the remaining undeveloped land within the Wright Business Park on Wright Boulevard, which connects to Durkin Street. According to the City, there are approximately 26 acres within the Wright Business Park that can be assumed to develop within the next five years.

As with the Parcel B, C, and D lands, trip generation estimates for the Wright Business Park lands were based upon typical ITE rates for an Industrial Park land use. Once again, the total gross floor area for the 26 acres was estimated based on an assumed building coverage of 25% of the land area. The resulting trip generation estimates for the remaining Wright Business Park lands are summarized in Table 6.

Table 6: Wright Business Park New Trip Generation

Weekday


PM Peak Hour


Total Trips 94 19 113 24 89 113

The Wright Business Park trips were assigned to the road network based on the distributions shown in Table 7, which account for origin-destination considerations and



the shortest available routing to access the arterial road network. The resulting background development traffic through the study area that is generated by the Wright Business Park is shown in Figure 8.

Table 7: Wright Business Park Trip Distribution


North Wright Boulevard 60% South Highway 7 25%

East Line 29 5%

West Line 29 10%

Figure 8: Wright Business Park Development Traffic

3.3 Background Development Traffic

In discussions with the City it was suggested that it be assumed that one third of the Parcel B, C and D lands are developed every five years (i.e., 33.3% of the traffic by 2024, 66.6% by 2029, and 100% in 2034). Combining the Parcel B, C and D traffic with the Wright Business Park traffic for 2024, 2029, and 2034 horizons, we get background development traffic as shown in Figure 9, Figure 10,.and Figure 11, respectively.



Figure 9: 2024 Background Development Traffic





3.4 Future Road Network

There are currently no approved plans for future road work in the study area within the horizon period of this study. The road network for future condition analysis is based on the existing road network with the addition of a south leg at the Line 29 / Dunn Road intersection to accommodate the Parcel D background development.

The MTO has an ongoing Highway 7/8 Transportation Corridor Planning & Class EA Study (Highway 7/8 Study), which has made preliminary recommendations for improvements to the Highway 7/8 corridors through Stratford. As of the most recent updates for the Highway 7/8 Study (June 2017), the recommended plan includes the widening of Erie Street to a five-lane cross-section (four lanes plus a two-way left turn lane). This widening would continue through the Highway 7 and Line 29 intersection, combined with signalization and the addition of left turn lanes on Line 29.

The timeframe for the completion of the Highway 7/8 study work and the potential timing for the recommended improvements is unknown, therefore we have not assumed these improvements are constructed within the 15 year horizon of this study. However, this information has been used to guide the selection of any future road/intersection improvements recommended in this study, to ensure that they are compatible with the Highway 7/8 Study recommended plans.



3.5 Future Background Traffic Volumes

The existing traffic volumes were expanded to 2024, 2029 and 2034 based on the background growth rate as identified in Section 3.1, and the background development traffic noted in Section 3.2 was added to obtain the 2024, 2029 and 2034 background traffic volumes shown in Figure 12, Figure 13, and Figure 14, respectively.

Figure 12: 2024 Background Traffic Volumes



3.5.1 Traffic Signal Warrants (Future Background Traffic)

Justification 7 (“Projected Volumes”) of Ontario Traffic Manual Book 12: Traffic Signals (MTO, March 2012), was used to determine if traffic signals will be warranted for the various future traffic/development scenarios analyzed. With forecasted volumes at an existing intersection, Justification 7 from OTM Book 12 requires that 120% of the warrant threshold be met. The following was concluded:

Traffic signals are warranted at the Highway 7 and Line 29 intersection by 2029 for background traffic conditions, reaching 121% (Delay to Cross Traffic Warrant) and therefore exceeds the required 120% warrant requirement. The warrant is only 108% met in 2024.

Traffic signals are not warranted at the Line 29 and Dunn Road intersection. Under the heaviest traffic condition (2034 background traffic), the warrant is only at 75% (Minimum Vehicle Volume Warrant) out of the required 120%.

Signal warrant analysis summary sheets for the future background traffic conditions are included in Appendix D.

3.5.2 Left Turn Lane Warrants (Future Background Traffic)

Warrants for left turn lanes were re-assessed for the future background traffic forecasts using the MTO Design Supplement warrant graphs and methodology previously described in Section 2.4.2. These left turn lane warrant analysis graphs are included in Appendix D.

For the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection, a northbound left turn lane is warranted with 30 m of storage under 2024 background traffic conditions. The storage requirement increases to 50 m and 55 m for 2029 and 2034 background traffic conditions, respectively.

Assuming Dunn Road is extended south of Line 29 to service Parcel D, a westbound left turn lane is warranted at the Line 29 / Dunn Road intersection with 15 m of storage under 2029 and 2034 background traffic conditions. However, the warrants for a left turn lane at this intersection should be reassessed once specific details of the development of Parcel D are available, to confirm if the assumed ITE Business Park trip generation rates are consistent with the actual developments subsequently proposed.

3.6 Future Background Traffic Operations

The 2024, 2029 and 2034 background traffic volumes were analyzed with Synchro to check future intersection operations. The results are summarized in Table 8 through Table 10, and Synchro output reports are provided in Appendix E.



Table 8: 2024 Background Traffic Intersection Operations



v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

Highway 7 & Line 29 Eastbound Left-Through-Right 0.61 51 / F 26 1.07 141 / F 71 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.41 42 / E 14 0.73 95 / F 30 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.10 2 / A 3 0.04 1 / A 1 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.00 0 / A 0 0.02 0 / A 0 Line 29 & Dunn Road

Eastbound Left-Through-Right 0.02 2 / A 1 0.01 1 / A 0 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.08 4 / A 2 0.02 2 / A 0 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.05 11 / B 1 0.17 10 / B 5 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.09 14 / B 2 0.13 12 / B 3 Line 29 & Durkin Street

Eastbound Left-Through 0.04 2 / A 1 0.01 2 / A 0 Westbound Through-Right 0.06 0 / A 0 0.07 0 / A 0

Southbound Left-Right 0.04 11 / B 1 0.10 10 / A 3




v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

Highway 7 & Line 29 Eastbound Left-Through-Right 1.38 287 / F 82 2.16 602 / F 182 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.80 110 / F 35 1.60 427 / F 72 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.14 3 / A 4 0.06 2 / A 1 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.00 0 / A 0 0.02 1 / A 0 Line 29 & Dunn Road

Eastbound Left-Through-Right 0.02 2 / A 1 0.02 1 / A 0 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.16 5 / A 4 0.04 3 / A 1 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.15 14 / B 4 0.38 13 / B 14 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.25 22 / C 7 0.20 16 / C 6 Line 29 & Durkin Street


Southbound Left-Right 0.05 11 / B 1 0.11 10 / A 3






v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

Highway 7 & Line 29 Eastbound Left-Through-Right 8.36 Err / F Err 4.24 Err / F Err Westbound Left-Through-Right 1.74 494 / F 77 4.24 Err / F Err Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.18 4 / A 5 0.07 2 / A 2 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.00 0 / A 0 0.02 1 / A 0 Line 29 & Dunn Road

Eastbound Left-Through-Right 0.02 1 / A 1 0.02 1 / A 0 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.25 7 / A 8 0.05 3 / A 1 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.37 24 / C 13 0.62 18 / C 33 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.58 54 / F 23 0.33 24 / C 11 Line 29 & Durkin Street

Eastbound Left-Through-Right 0.04 2 / A 1 0.01 2 / A 0 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.08 0 / A 0 0.12 0 / A 0 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.05 12 / B 1 0.12 10 / B 3

The results of the operational analysis show that the eastbound approach at the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection will be over capacity (v/c ratio > 1.0) with long delays by 2024, becoming significantly over capacity with extreme delays in 2029 and 2034. The westbound approach will also be significantly over capacity in 2029 and 2034. Despite traffic signals not being technically warranted for 2024 background traffic conditions, traffic signals at Highway 7 / Line 29 would be recommended to provide operational improvements. This is further discussed in Section 3.7.

The Line 29 / Dunn Road intersection will operate acceptably through 2029 with LOS C or better. By 2034, the southbound approach will experience longer delay with LOS F during the AM peak hour. Although this delay is longer than desirable, the v/c ratio is still well below 1.0, therefore the operations could be tolerated, however, this indicates that operational improvements (e.g., traffic signals) may be required over the longer term at this intersection. Actual operations at this intersection should be reassessed once specific details of the development of Parcel D are available, to confirm if the assumed ITE Business Park trip generation rates are consistent with the actual developments subsequently proposed.

The Line 29 / Durkin Street intersection will operate acceptably throughout 2034 with all movements at LOS B or better.

3.7 Potential Operational Improvements (Future Background Traffic)

To improve operations under the future background traffic conditions, the intersection operations were re-assessed including the following intersection improvements:



Traffic signals at Highway 7 / Line 29 including the addition of left turn lanes on all approaches.

The results are summarized in Table 11 and the Synchro output reports are provided in Appendix F.

Table 11: Highway 7 & Line 29 Signalized Intersection Operations (Background Traffic, with Improvements)



v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

2024 Background Overall 0.44 8 / A 0.49 10 / A

Eastbound Left 0.29 31 / C 11 0.44 31 / C 17 Eastbound Through-Right 0.29 30 / C 15 0.33 29 / C 20

Westbound Left 0.10 29 / C 5 0.26 29 / C 12 Westbound Through-Right 0.29 30 / C 14 0.18 28 / C 12

Northbound Left 0.16 3 / A 9 0.08 3 / A 5 Northbound Through-Right 0.46 5 / A 45 0.39 5 / A 43

Southbound Left 0.00 3 / A 1 0.03 3 / A 2 Southbound Through-Right 0.28 4 / A 22 0.50 6 / A 62

2029 Background Overall 0.50 9 / A 0.58 12 / B





2034 Background Overall 0.56 10 / B 0.67 14 / B





The results show that the signalization of the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection, including the addition of left turn lanes on all approaches, can provide excellent operations for the future background traffic conditions throughout the long-term horizon, with all movements operating at LOS C or better.



Under a signalized condition, the left turn lane storage requirements would no longer be defined by the warrant graphs previously analyzed, but rather they would be based on 95th percentile queue length estimated with the operational analysis or a minimum of 15 m. Therefore, based on the 95th percentile queue results for the 2034 background traffic conditions, the following left turn lane storage lengths would be required at Highway 7 / Line 29:

Northbound left turn lane storage of 20 m Southbound left turn lane storage of 15 m Eastbound left turn lane storage of 35 m Westbound left turn lane storage of 20 m.

4.0 Proposed Development

4.1 Site Plan

The development site is proposed to include a manufacturing facility of approximately 3,000,000 sq. ft. with some additional office space and ancillary structures. As previously noted, the development is proposed in two phases (Phase 1 with approximately 1,800,000 sq. ft. and Phase 2 with an additional 1,200,000 sq. ft.). Phase 1 is anticipated to be operational within three years, with Phase 2 proceeding within the following two years (i.e., a five-year horizon for full build-out). Given the relatively short timeline in which both phases are anticipated to be complete, this study has focused on the full build-out (Phase 2) condition.

Site access is proposed via two full movement accesses: one on Highway 7, referred to as the East Access, and one on Line 29, referred to as the North Access. The exact proposed location for the North Access has not yet been determined, however, based on the property frontage on Line 29, the North Access will be between 430 m and 530 m west of Dunn Road. The East Access will be located near the north end of the Highway 7 frontage, approximately 540 m south of Line 29. The North Access is proposed to be the employee entrance with stop sign control, while the East Access is proposed to be signalized in order to serve the plant’s trucking operations. Access considerations are discussed further in Section 4.4.

Raw materials for the manufacturing operation are proposed to be delivered via rail, therefore three or four new rail spurs (sidings) adjacent to CN rail line will be built on site.

A preliminary site plan is shown in Figure 15. It is noted that this site plan shows only Phase 1 details within the site and the Phase 2 area is labelled as reserved space.



Figure 15: Site Plan



4.2 Trip Generation

Trip generation estimates for the site have been prepared based on preliminary operational forecasts provided by Xinyi. Ultimately, it is anticipated that during the AM peak hour 370 employees will enter the site (260 office staff and 110 production line staff) and 110 employees will exit the site (production line staff leaving at shift change). In the PM, the production line staff shift change will occur prior to the office staff going home, therefore, the peak hour is considered to be the 260 office employees exiting the site. Assuming all employees drive themselves to and from work, the resulting trip generation for the site is summarized in Table 12. This is considered a worst-case scenario, since employee carpooling, transit use and active transportation (walking/cycling) could potentially reduce the number of vehicular trips to/from the site.

Table 12: Site Trip Generation

Weekday


PM Peak Hour


Total Trips 370 110 480 0 260 260

In addition to the employee trip generation, it is estimated that the site will be visited by 140 trucks per day (i.e., 140 trips in and 140 trips out) via the East Access. The peak hour outbound trucks will be limited by the plant’s available loading capacity, which is estimated to be 16 trucks per hour. This maximum is assumed for the AM peak hour only. The PM peak hour is assumed to have fewer outbound trucks since trucks will generally need to schedule arrival at their destinations during business hours (i.e., majority of departures earlier in the day), therefore only four outbound trucks were estimated for the PM peak hour. Inbound truck volumes have been assumed to be equal to the outbound for each of the peak hours.

4.3 Trip Distribution and Assignment

Site trip distribution was based on assumptions of feasible Xinyi staff origins and destinations within Stratford and the surrounding area and is shown in Table 13.



Table 13: Xinyi Employee Trip Distribution


North Durkin Street 10% North Highway 7 (Erie Street) 40% South Highway 7 25%

East Line 29 10%

West Line 29 15%

The employee site traffic was assigned entirely to the North Access.

Truck traffic using the East Access was assumed to have a 50/50 split between northbound and southbound movements on Highway 7. The actual distribution may vary according to market destinations, but the overall truck volumes are quite low and signalized access is proposed, therefore a different distribution of truck traffic will not have any significant impact on the access operations.

The resulting traffic assignment for the site traffic is shown in Figure 16.

Figure 16: Site Traffic



4.4 Site Access Considerations

Access considerations such as location, proposed control type and sight lines are discussed for each of the proposed accesses in the following subsections.

4.4.1 North Access (Line 29)

The North Access is proposed to be stop controlled and connect to Line 29 east of the CN rail line. The exact location of the access has not yet been determined, therefore the following considerations apply to potential locations along the full frontage of the subject site on Line 29.

Line 29 is relatively flat, in the area of the North Access, and the sightlines to the east and west are better than the minimum stopping sight distance (105 m) and the minimum decision sight distance (200 m) for a 70 km/h design speed, as required by the MTO Design Supplement.

It is noted that according to the Transport Canada Grade Crossing Standards, the minimum spacing between an intersection or access and a rail crossing is 30 m (i.e., distance measured from the edge of the travelled way on the access to the nearest rail), therefore the access must be located more than 30 m east of the rail line.

It is suggested that consideration be given to locating the North Access as far from the rail crossing as possible (i.e., the east end of the Line 29 site frontage) to provide the maximum flexibility for any future road or access improvements that may be required (further discussion in Section 5.1.2).

4.4.2 East Access (Highway 7)

The East Access is proposed on Highway 7. The proposed location is near the north end of the Highway 7 frontage, approximately 540 m south of Line 29.

Direct access to Highway 7 will be important for Xinyi’s trucking operations, and signalized access is required to accommodate the fragile loads being transported from the site and provide safe egress movements. The traffic signals would operate under semi-actuated control therefore, they will generally rest in the green phase on Highway 7, with little impact on mobility for Highway 7 motorists. A northbound left turn lane is also proposed (left turn lane warrant analysis is discussed in Section 5.1.2), which would also reduce interruption to through movements.

Although not entirely applicable for a signalized access, it is noted that Highway 7 is straight and flat in the area of the East Access and sightlines are in excess of the minimum stopping sight distance (190 m) and the minimum decision sight distance (300 m) required for a 100 km/h design speed as per the MTO Design Supplement, therefore,



sufficient sightlines are available for temporary stop control operation if the traffic signals revert to a flashing amber / flashing red operation (e.g. after a power failure).

5.0 Future Total Conditions

5.1 Future Total Traffic Volumes

Future total traffic volumes consist of the future background traffic volumes plus the addition of the proposed site traffic. For 2024, this consists of the background volumes shown in Figure 9 and the site trips shown in Figure 16. For 2029, this consists of the background volumes shown in Figure 10 and the site trips shown in Figure 16. For 2034, this consists of the background volumes shown in Figure 11 and the site trips shown in Figure 16. The resulting total traffic volumes are shown in Figure 17, Figure 18, and Figure 19 for 2024, 2029 and 2034, respectively.

Figure 17: 2024 Total Traffic Volumes



5.1.1 Traffic Signal Warrants (Future Total Traffic)

Traffic signal warrants were re-assessed for future total traffic conditions, once again based on Justification 7 from OTM Book 12. The following was concluded:

Traffic signals are warranted at the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection under the 2024 total traffic conditions, reaching 150% (Minimum Vehicle Volume Warrant), compared to the warrant requirement of 120%.

Traffic signals are not warranted at the Line 29 / Dunn Road intersection. Under the heaviest traffic condition (2034 total traffic) the warrant is at 103% (Minimum Volume Warrant), compared to the warrant requirement of 120%.

Signal warrant analysis summary sheets for total traffic conditions are included in Appendix G.

5.1.2 Left Turn Lane Warrants (Future Total Traffic)

Warrants for left turn lanes were re-assessed for the future total traffic forecasts using the MTO Design Supplement warrant graphs and methodology previously described in Section 2.4.2. These left turn lane warrant analysis graphs are included in Appendix G.

For the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection, a northbound left turn lane is warranted with 55 m of storage, to accommodate 2024 total traffic conditions. The storage requirement increases to 75 m and 100 m for 2029 and 2034 total traffic conditions, respectively.

Assuming Dunn Road is extended south of Line 29 to service Parcel D, a westbound left turn lane is warranted at the Line 29 / Dunn Road intersection with 25 m and 30 m of storage under 2029 and 2034 total traffic conditions, respectively. However, the warrants for a left turn lane at this intersection should be reassessed once specific details of the development of Parcel D are available, to confirm if the assumed ITE Business Park trip generation rates are consistent with the actual developments subsequently proposed.

The North Access warrants a westbound left turn lane (on Line 29) with the same 15 m of storage required for 2024, 2029 and 2034 total traffic conditions. To avoid the road widening for the left turn lane impacting the rail crossing, the North Access would need to be located at least 90 m east of the rail line to accommodate the runout lane from the left turn lane (assuming a 15:1 taper based on 70 km/h design speed). The deceleration lane and runout lane at this intersection should be designed to meet the criteria in the TAC Geometric Design Guide for Canadian Roads – June 2017.

Although the East Access is proposed to be signalized, the left turn lane warrants for an unsignalized condition were evaluated. This is to recognize that since the traffic signals will generally rest in green on Highway 7, the northbound left turn lane will function more like an unsignalized condition. The East Access warrants a northbound left turn lane (on



Highway 7) with 25 m of storage for 2024 and 2029 total traffic conditions. By 2034, 35 m of storage would be required. However, it is noted that the MTO warrant charts are based on automobiles, with the minimum chart based on 5% left turn movements. Since the traffic using this access will almost solely be trucks and since the percentage of left turn movements is forecasted to be in the order of 1%, we recommend that 25 m left turn storage be provided, to accommodate the queuing for the longest potential truck. It is recommended that the deceleration lane and runout lane for the left turn lane be designed to meet the criteria in the MTO Design Supplement for TAC Geometric Design Guide for Canadian Roads – June 2017.

Table 14 provides a summary of left turn lane warrant/storage requirements for the various traffic conditions and horizon years under unsignalized control.

Table 14: Summary of Left Turn Lane Warrants and Storage Requirements (Unsignalized Condition)

Intersection & Direction

Turn Lane Warranted? (Storage Length Requirement)

Existing 2024 2029 2034 Background Total Background Total Background Total

Highway 7 / Line 29 Northbound Left

Yes (25 m)

Yes (30 m)

Yes (55 m)

Yes (50 m)

Yes (75 m)

Yes (55 m)

Yes (100 m)

Line 29 / Dunn Road Westbound Left No No No

Yes (15 m)

Yes (25 m)

Yes (15 m)

Yes (30 m)

Line 29 / Durkin Street Westbound Left No No No No No No No

Line 29 / North Access Westbound Left - -

Yes (15 m) -

Yes (15 m) -

Yes (15 m)

Highway 7 / East Access Northbound Left - -

Yes (25 m) -

Yes (25 m) -

Yes (35 m)

5.2 Future Total Traffic Operations

The 2024, 2029, and 2034 total traffic volumes were analyzed with Synchro and the results are summarized in Table 15, Table 16, and Table 17, respectively. Synchro output reports are provided in Appendix H.



Table 15: 2024 Total Traffic Intersection Operations



v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

Highway 7 & Line 29 Eastbound Left-Through-Right Err Err / F Err 2.47 724 / F 262 Westbound Left-Through-Right 1.47 368 / F 68 1.10 232 / F 46 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.22 5 / A 6 0.04 1 / A 1 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.00 0 / A 0 0.02 0 / A 0 Line 29 & Dunn Road

Eastbound Left-Through-Right 0.03 1 / A 1 0.01 1 / A 0 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.09 2 / A 2 0.02 2 / A 1 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.09 14 / B 2 0.24 13 / B 7 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.19 24 / C 5 0.18 15 / C 5 Line 29 & Durkin Street


Southbound Left-Right 0.15 13 / B 4 0.11 10 / B 3 Line 29 & North Access

Eastbound Through-Right 0.18 0 / A 0 0.06 0 / A 0 Westbound Left-Through 0.32 8 / A 11 0.00 0 / A 0

Northbound Left-Right 0.41 21 / C 15 0.36 11 / B 13 Highway 7 & East Access

Eastbound Left-Right 0.57 78 / E 7 0.16 44 / D 3 Northbound Left 0.02 1 / A 1 0.01 1 / A 0

Northbound Through 0.52 3 / A 62 0.36 2 / A 33 Southbound Through-Right 0.26 2 / A 22 0.53 3 / A 61






v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

Highway 7 & Line 29 Eastbound Left-Through-Right Err Err / F Err 4.03 Err / F Err Westbound Left-Through-Right 6.74 Err / F Err 3.01 Err / F Err Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.27 6 / A 8 0.06 2 / A 1 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.00 0 / A 0 0.02 1 / A 0 Line 29 & Dunn Road

Eastbound Left-Through-Right 0.03 1 / A 1 0.02 1 / A 0 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.18 4 / A 5 0.04 3 / A 1 Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.29 25 / C 9 0.53 19 / C 24 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.51 56 / F 18 0.30 23 / C 9 Line 29 & Durkin Street




Northbound Left-Right 0.46 24 / C 18 0.38 12 / B 13 Highway 7 & East Access








v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

Highway 7 & Line 29 Eastbound Left-Through-Right Err Err / F Err 7.04 Err / F Err Westbound Left-Through-Right Err Err / F Err Err Err / F Err Northbound Left-Through-Right 0.33 8 / A 11 0.07 2 / A 2 Southbound Left-Through-Right 0.00 0 / A 0 0.02 1 / A 0 Line 29 & Dunn Road

Eastbound Left-Through-Right 0.03 1 / A 1 0.02 1 / A 0 Westbound Left-Through-Right 0.28 6 / A 9 0.07 3 / A 2 Northbound Left-Through-Right 2.62 932 / F 93 0.86 43 / E 70 Southbound Left-Through-Right 1.23 275 / F 54 0.57 53 / F 23 Line 29 & Durkin Street




Northbound Left-Right 0.50 28 / D 20 0.39 12 / B 14 Highway 7 & East Access



The results of the operational analysis show that the eastbound and westbound approaches at the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection will be significantly over capacity with extreme delays by 2024 under total traffic conditions, with operations continuing to worsen in subsequent horizon years. Traffic signals would be required to provide improved operations, as was the case for accommodating the background traffic.

The Line 29 / Dunn Road intersection operates acceptably in 2024 and 2029 (in 2029, the southbound movement experiences LOS F, however, the v/c ratio is still well below 1.0). By 2034, the northbound and southbound movements are over capacity and experience extreme delay, indicating the need for signalization, despite the traffic signal warrants not being met within the full horizon period.

The above noted signalization improvements are evaluated further in Section 5.3.

The Line 29 / Durkin Street intersection will operate acceptably throughout 2034, with all movements at LOS B or better, under total traffic conditions.



The North Access will operate acceptably throughout 2034 with all movements at LOS D or better.

At the East Access, the eastbound movement will experience LOS E during the AM and LOS D during the PM. It is noted that this LOS could be improved with the use of a shorter cycle length (the operational analysis assumed a 90 second cycle), however, a longer cycle length will ensure maximum green time on Highway 7, which is why it was assumed.

5.3 Potential Operational Improvements (Future Total Traffic)

To improve operations under the future total traffic conditions, the intersection operations were re-assessed including intersection improvements. The Synchro output reports for total traffic conditions with improvements are provided in Appendix I.

For the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection, traffic signals, including the addition of left turn lanes on all approaches (i.e. the same improvements considered under future background traffic conditions), were analyzed. The results are summarized in Table 18.



Table 18: Highway 7 & Line 29 Signalized Intersection Operations (Total Traffic, with Improvements)



v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

2024 Total Overall 0.50 10 / B 0.60 14 / B





2029 Total Overall 0.56 12 / B 0.69 16 / B

Eastbound Left 0.57 31 25 0.73 32 / C 46 Eastbound Through-Right 0.35 27 22 0.46 22 / C 35

Westbound Left 0.08 25 6 0.24 21 / C 13 Westbound Through-Right 0.42 27 25 0.11 20 / B 12

Northbound Left 0.55 10 33 0.17 8 / A 9 Northbound Through-Right 0.55 8 60 0.51 10 / A 68

Southbound Left 0.00 4 1 0.04 6 / A 4 Southbound Through-Right 0.54 8 46 0.68 13 / B 105

2034 Total Overall 0.73 15 / B 0.78 19 / B

Eastbound Left 0.61 32 / C 28 0.82 38 / D 65 Eastbound Through-Right 0.42 26 / C 26 0.54 23 / C 44

Westbound Left 0.10 24 / C 7 0.33 21 / C 17 Westbound Through-Right 0.43 26 / C 28 0.13 19 / B 15

Northbound Left 0.76 21 / C 68 0.28 11 / B 12 Northbound Through-Right 0.62 9 / A 76 0.56 12 / B 74

Southbound Left 0.01 4 / A 1 0.05 7 / A 4 Southbound Through-Right 0.62 10 / A 64 0.76 17 / B 128

The results show that the signalization of the Highway 7 / Line 29 intersection, including the addition of left turn lanes on all approaches, can provide excellent operations for the future total traffic conditions throughout the long-term horizon. All movements operate at LOS C or better, except for the eastbound left turn movement in 2034, which operates at LOS D.

With the introduction of traffic signals at Highway 7 / Line 29, the following left turn lane storage distances would be required based on the 95th percentile queues for 2034 total traffic conditions:

Northbound left turn lane storage of 70 m



Southbound left turn lane storage of 15 m Eastbound left turn lane storage of 65 m Westbound left turn lane storage of 20 m.

For Line 29 / Dunn Road, the intersection operations were improved with the addition of traffic signals and left turn lanes on all approaches. The results are summarized in Table 19.

Table 19: Line 29 & Dunn Road Signalized Intersection Operations (Total Traffic, with Improvements)



v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

v/c Delay / LOS

95th Queue

(m)

2024 Total Overall 0.37 5 / A 0.27 10 / A

Eastbound Left 0.04 2 / A 2 0.02 3 / A 2 Eastbound Through-Right 0.17 2 / A 11 0.27 4 / A 21

Westbound Left 0.13 2 / A 6 0.04 3 / A 3 Westbound Through-Right 0.37 3 / A 25 0.08 4 / A 6

Northbound Left 0.05 28 / C 2 0.13 21 / C 6 Northbound Through-Right 0.08 28 / C 5 0.17 22 / C 10

Southbound Left 0.11 28 / C 4 0.28 22 / C 9 Southbound Through-Right 0.29 29 / C 7 0.05 21 / C 5

2029 Total Overall 0.39 6 / A 0.31 11 / B



Northbound Left 0.09 25 / C 4 0.18 18 / B 8 Northbound Through-Right 0.12 25 / C 7 0.27 18 / B 13

Southbound Left 0.08 25 / C 4 0.22 18 / B 9 Southbound Through-Right 0.33 27 / C 10 0.05 17 / B 5

2034 Total Overall 0.45 8 / A 0.36 11 / B



Northbound Left 0.12 25 / C 5 0.23 16 / B 5 Northbound Through-Right 0.15 26 / C 8 0.38 17 / B 5

Southbound Left 0.08 25 / C 4 0.29 17 / B 3 Southbound Through-Right 0.39 27 / C 14 0.07 16 / B 1



The results show that the addition of traffic signals and left turn lanes at the Line 29 / Dunn Road intersection can provide excellent operations for the future total traffic conditions throughout the 2034 horizon, will all movements at LOS C or better.

With the introduction of traffic signals at Line 29 / Dunn Road, the following left turn lane storage distances would be required based on the 95th percentile queues for 2034 total traffic conditions:

Northbound left turn lane storage = 15 m Southbound left turn lane storage = 15 m Eastbound left turn lane storage = 15 m Westbound left turn lane storage = 25 m

6.0 Rail Crossing Considerations

The CN rail line, bordering the west side of the subject site, crosses Line 29 near the proposed location of the North Access. The main considerations for the at-grade rail crossing related to vehicular traffic are adequate protection and queuing impacts. Thes

Documents

Stratford Manufacturing Facility Traffic Impact Study (Final Draft) … · 2020. 11. 17. · Xinyi Canada Glass Limited i Stratford Manufacturing Facility – Traffic Impact Study