A County Level Analysis of Educational Attainment in the United States by Social, Economic and Geographic Variables

BYBrandon Hallstrand (University of Wisconsin – Stout)

Kunjan Upadhyay (University of Wisconsin - Stout)2010 Wisconsin Economics Association

Annual Conference

Outline

• Introduction• Prior Studies• Model• Data and Descriptive Statistics• Regression Analysis• Conclusion• Future Work

Introduction

• Education is Important– Huge Disparities within the country.

• US is currently Ranked 16th in Education amongst 26 other OECD Countries.– Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development (OECD)– Dropped from 1st position in 1995

GRCSVN

AUTDEU

HUNCAN

CHEESP

CZE ITAUSA ISR

GBROECD

JPN

SVKSWE

PRTNLD NOR IRL

DNKNZL FIN

POLAUS ISL

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 or latest available year 1995

Figure 1: its “Percentage of Tertiary-Type A Graduates to the Population at the Typical Age of Graduation Measure for 2010,” (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2010). http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=23112

Prior Studies

• Racial, gender cohort dropout rates in Chicago Public Schools (Allensworth & Easton 2001).

• High school Drop outs and graduation rates in central region (Randel, Moore & Blair 2008).

• Focus on Specific Regions, gender, race• One Study Points Out Data Problems

– Hidden Crisis in High School Dropout Rate (Sum et. al 2003).

Full Models

Reduced Models

Data and Descriptive Statistics1990

Variable Count Mean StDev Minimum Maximum

Dropout Rate 3105 10.901 5.489 0 51.064

Per capita personal income 3105 15337 3585 5479 50230

2yr Lag Edu Spend per Child 3105 4.2972 1.5666 0 27.7641

2yr Lead Edu Spend per Child 3105 4.696 2.913 0 141.125Averaged Edu Spending per child 3105 4.4462 2.0401 0 81.2206

Males per 100 Females 3105 96.596 7.497 81.055 211.806

Percent White, Non Hispanic 3105 82.755 20.714 -36.441 99.845

Percent Black 3105 8.48 14.228 0 86.236

Percent Hispanic 3105 4.49 11.097 0 97.216

Percent Asian or Pacific 3105 0.7016 2.5171 0 62.9562

Percent Native American 3105 1.737 7.181 0 94.668

Percent Other Race 3105 1.8365 4.5757 0 44.4335

Data and Descriptive Statistics2000

Variable Count Mean StDev Minimum Maximum

Dropout Rate 3105 9.5785 5.2125 0 57.9785

Per capita personal income 3105 17545 4441 5685 65100

2yr Lag Edu Spend per Child 3105 5.1614 2.2419 0 91.4449

2yr Lead Edu Spend per Child 3105 6.081 1.8694 0 27.5714

Averaged Edu Spending per child 3105 5.6128 1.6245 0 28.4042

Males per 100 Females 3105 98.65 9.049 74.1 205.4

Percent White, Non Hispanic 3105 81.418 19.012 2 99.6

Percent Black 3105 8.654 14.389 0 86.5

Percent Hispanic 3105 3.138 7.344 0 85.9

Percent Asian or Pacific 3105 0.8818 2.3756 0 54.9

Percent Native American 3105 1.887 7.497 0 94.2

Percent Other Race 3105 2.5748 4.8605 0 39.1

Data and Descriptive StatisticsPanel

Variable Count Mean StDev Minimum Maximum

Dropout Rate 6210 10.24 5.393 0 57.979

Per capita personal income 6210 16441 4184 5479 65100

2yr Lag Edu Spend per Child 6210 4.7293 1.9815 0 91.4449

2yr Lead Edu Spend per Child 6210 5.388 2.543 0 141.125

Averaged Edu Spending per child 6210 5.0295 1.934 0 81.2206

Males per 100 Females 6210 97.623 8.372 74.1 211.806

Percent White, Non Hispanic 6210 82.087 19.891 -36.441 99.845

Percent Black 6210 8.567 14.308 0 86.5

Percent Hispanic 6210 3.814 9.433 0 97.216

Percent Asian or Pacific 6210 0.7917 2.4488 0 62.9562

Percent Native American 6210 1.8117 7.3403 0 94.6677

Percent Other Race 6210 2.2057 4.7343 0 44.4335

Regression Analysis

• Used Minitab 16 Statistical Software• Best Subsets• Chose Models for Simplicity and Fit

NOTE:

* : denote the variable is statistically significant at 1%

** : denote the variable is statistically significant at 5%

*** denote the variable is statistically significant at 10%

Regression AnalysisPredictor 1990 2000 1990-2000Per capita personal income -0.00019 -0.00014 -0.00017

(-6.83)* (-6.31)* (-9.7)*2yr Lag Edu Spend per Child -0.49259 -0.06069 -0.20237

(-5.93)* (-1.26) (-5.04)*2yr Lead Edu Spend per Child 0.00546 0.23930 -0.01652

(-0.16) (1.7)*** (-0.55)Averaged Edu Spending per Child 0.03225 -0.51980 -0.11111

(-0.55) (-2.96) (-2.42)**Males per 100 Females 0.01928 0.04391 0.03301

(-1.55) (-4.61)* (4.34)*Percent White, Non Hispanic 0.02989 0.08393 0.12519

(1.76)*** (-0.9) (1.69)**Percent Black 0.04257 0.15314 0.16734

(2.35)** (1.66)*** (2.27)*Percent Hispanic N/A 0.05199 0.09597

N/A (-0.55) (-1.31)Percent Asian or Pacific Island -0.00456 0.02160 0.09289

(-0.11) (-0.17) (-1.04)Percent Native American or Alas 0.09055 0.17112 0.19866

(4.32)* (1.76)*** (2.61)*Present Other Races 0.22833 0.30420 0.33314

(4.05)* (3.00)* (4.06)*Midwest -1.87930 -0.88420 -1.33520

(-5.06)* (-2.47)* (-5.16)*South 2.44796 1.58410 2.07670

(6.32)* (4.22)* (7.7)*West -0.06201 -0.28870 -0.21880

(-0.14) (-0.7) (-0.74)Year 1990=0, 2000 =1 N/A N/A -0.72190

N/A N/A (-4.28)*

1990 2000 1990-2000

R-sq 23.80% 22.50% 23.30%

R-sq(Adj 23.50% 22.10% 23.10%

Regression Analysis (cont.)Predictor 1990 2000 Combined

Per capita personal income -0.00019-

0.00015 -0.00017(-7.18)* (-7.23)* (-10.71)*

2yr Lag Edu Spend per Child -0.45896

-0.17685 -0.26650

(-7.45)* (-4.65)* (-8.16)*Males per 100 Females 0.01938 0.04115 0.03197

(-1.56) (4.33)* (4.21)*Percent White, Non Hispanic 0.03061 0.04252 0.03246

(2.01)** (2.89)* (3.26)*Percent Black 0.04326 0.11101 0.07418

(2.59)* (7.06)* (6.82)*Percent Native American or Alaskan 0.09126 0.12776 0.10289

(4.65)* (6.70)* (7.79)*Percent Other Race 0.23067 0.26624 0.23914

(4.45)* (7.00)* (8.00)*

Midwest -1.88659-

0.69634 -1.25587

(-5.09)*(-

1.96)** (-4.88)*South 2.43786 1.86042 2.18840

(6.31)* (5.08)* (8.21)*

West -0.08126-

0.22626 -0.19888(-0.19) (-0.55) (-0.67)

Year 2000 -0.93853(-7.27)*

NOTE:

* : denote the variable is statistically significant at 1%

** : denote the variable is statistically significant at 5%

*** denote the variable is statistically significant at 10%

  1990 20001990-2000

R-sq 23.77% 22.07% 23.20%R-sq(Adj 23.53% 21.82% 23.07%

Conclusion• Local Educational Spending and Per Capita Income

have consistent inverse effects– Effective way of reducing High School Dropouts– increase in spending and income from 1990 to 2000

coincides with a substantial decrease in the dropout rates.

• Whites, blacks, Native Americans and others have positive coefficients– Relative to areas with high numbers of Hispanics and

Asians; Areas with high numbers of whites, blacks, Native Americans and or others, have higher dropout rates.

– This Differs from Model to model, area to area.

Future Work

• Better way to manage racial categories– 1990 Data Set Problem– Relative Population Size Vs. Exact Sampling

• Change in local spending & lagged spending• Perhaps Panel Year Value takes away from

Spending value

Questions & Comments

Thank You!!!