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BSSC 2011 St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011. Regional Climate Change Assessments as a Service to Society: The BACC Example. Marcus Reckermann Hans-Jörg Isemer Hans von Storch Anders Omstedt and the BACC Author Team. Overview. Examples and principles for BACC-type assessments - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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BSSC 2011 St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011
Regional Climate Change Assessments as a Service to Society: The BACC Example
Marcus Reckermann
Hans-Jörg Isemer
Hans von Storch
Anders Omstedt
and the BACC Author Team
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 2
Overview
1. Examples and principles for BACC-type assessments
2. BACC results (published 2008)
3. BACC 2
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 3
Why regional climate change assessments?
Why care about regional climate change?
• Global assessment done by IPCC (AR4 from 2007)
• Climate changes NOT uniformly around the world
• Impacts differ greatly around the world
• Relevant political decisions are taken locally (adaptation)
• Public and policy makers need scientifc information
• Information scattered in numerous publications, largely difficult to access (language), let alone for non-scientists
→ Regional Climate Offices
→ Regional Climate Change Assessments
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 4
BACC-like assessments
BACC II (2009-2013)
NOSCCA North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (2010-2014)
2
BACC (2005-2008)
Climate Report for the Metropolitan Region of Hamburg (2007-2010)
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 5
BACC Science Steering Committee
Contributing authors
Ma
na
ge
me
nt
an
d C
oo
rdin
ati
on
( B
AL
TE
X S
ec
reta
ria
t )
Expert review
1st draft
Publication
selects
2nd draft
Final draft
Expert review
Draft chapter outlines and select
Lead authors
BALTEX Science Steering Group and Scientific community
Editing and Formatting
Organisation
The BACC process
Similar to IPCC process but no government review
Strictly scientific
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 6
Principles…
• Writing team of experts from different expertises, lead authors responsible for grand topics (IPCC-style)Lead authors recruit contributing authors with special expertise
• Exclusive use of „current legitimate knowledge“… What is that?- published and publicly available- peer reviewed articles from scientific journals- institutional reports- conference proceedings- No NGO or private company publications (e.g. Greenpeace, WWF, Shell, Munich-Re etc.)- No unpublished results
• Objectivity: No mixing of personal views, agendas or missions to be mixed up with the scientific status; consensus view to be reached if possible
• If consensus cannot be reached, this must be stated („we agree that we disagree“), and conflicting views should be described
• Minority views should not be ignored if they are scientifically plausible
Principles of BACC-like assessments
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 7
BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin - BACC
BACCground • Regional climate change assessments needed (IPCC has been doing global
climate change assessments since 1990)• Vast amount of material available in the Baltic Sea basin (also partly inaccessible
previousely).
Purpose • to provide the scientific community (and the public) with an assessment of
ongoing and future climate change in the Baltic Sea Basin• is done by reviewing and assessing published scientific knowledge on climate
change in the Basin
84 authors from 13 countries contributed > 2000 references, ~ 10 % non-English literature
Stakeholder involvement: Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) involved
BACC Book published in January 2008
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 8
Chapter 1Introduction and SummaryLead Authors: Hans von Storch, Anders Omstedt
Chapter 2Past and current climate changeLead Authors: Raino Heino, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Valery Vuglinskiy, Bo Gustafsson
Chapter 3Projections of future anthropogenic climate changeLead Author: L. Phil Graham
Chapter 4Climate-related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystemsLead Author: Benjamin Smith
Chapter 5Climate-related marine ecosystem changeLead Authors: Joachim W. Dippner, Ilppo Vuorinen
AnnexesVarious authors provide up-to-date background “textbook” knowledge on all aspects of BACC
BACC
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 9
BACC
Changes in Baltic Sea basin near-surface air temperature for the period 1871-2004 relative to 1961-1990
• Significant positive trend with regional and seasonal variations
• Warming trend in the north: + 1 ºC; in the south: + 0.7 ºC per 100 yrs (basin: + 0.85 ºC)
• Warming trend is largest in spring
• Regional change is slightly larger than on the global scale (IPCC-AR4: + 0.74 ºC per 100 yrs)
Air TemperaturePast and current climate change
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 10
BACC
Changes of precipitation over the Baltic Sea basin as ratios of the period 1976-2000 relative to 1951-1975
Light green = Precipitation decreaseDark green = Precipitation increase
PrecipitationPast and current climate change
Large spatial and seasonal variations of precipitation, but trends towards…
More rain in winter (especially in the south)
More rain in spring (especially in the north)
Less rain in summer (especially in the south)
Overall slight increase
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 11
BACC
Tornionjoki
20.4.
30.4.
10.5.
20.5.
30.5.
9.6.
19.6.
1693 1743 1793 1843 1893 1943 1993
Year
Bre
ak-u
p (
dat
e)River icePast and current climate change
Earlier ice break up in Tornionjoki river (Finland)
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 12
BACC
Wind and StorminessPast and current climate change
Number of low pressure systems (p<980 hPa) in Stockholm and Lund
There is NO trend in windiness or storminess over the Baltic Sea Basin!
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 13
BACC
Sea icePast and current climate change
Winter 2007/2008 mildest ever recorded
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 14
BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
RCM projection for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990
(A2 scenario)
Air Temperature
Winter
RCM: RCAO
RCM: HIRHAM
GCM: HadAM3H GCM: ECHAM4/OPYC
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 15
BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change Air Temperature
Air Temperature Animation
RCM projection for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990
(A2 scenario)
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 18
BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change Precipitation
Precipitation Animation
RCM projection for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990
(A2 scenario)
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 21
BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
RCAO projections for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990
Discharge peaks come earlier in the year
Overall amounts increased
Lower salinities expected
Total riverine discharge to the Baltic Sea
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 22
BACC
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
Mean number of ice days simulated by RCAO
Present winter For the period 2071-2100 using the B2 emission scenario
For the period 2071-2100 using the A2 emission scenario
Sea ice
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 23
The expected future warming is associated to a possibly accelerated continuation of the present trends in
(i) Earlier spring phenological phases,
(ii) Northward species shifts
(iii) Increased growth and vigour of vegetation
Terrestrial ecosystems
Terrestrial ecosystems in the south are projected to be a carbon source by the end of the century
BACC
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 24
Impacts on marine ecosystems
… increase of temperature…• Higher metabolic rates
• Impact on acclimation capacity
• Reduce the general fitness
• Reduce enzyme activities
• Shift in species composition (phytoplankton)
• Enhanced cyanobacteria blooms
… reduction in sea ice…• Ringed seal survival
… decrease of salinity…• Osmotic stress
• Shift in species composition (phyto– & zooplankton)
• Egg survival
• Food quality for fish (growth rate)
• Distribution of benthos
• Reduction of fitness
• Invading species
BACC
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 25
1st BACC II Lead Author Team Meeting in Gothenburg, Sweden23-24 November 2010
2nd BACC II Lead Author Team Meeting in Hamburg, Germany28-29 March 2011
BACC II: An update to BACC to be published in 2014
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 26
BACC II: An update to BACC to be published in 2014
Science Steering Group constituted mostly from BACC I Lead Authors New lead authors and contributing authors (23 to date)
New in BACC II
Past climate variability: Holocene (10.000 yr) and historical time frame (1000 yr) Sea level change Socio-economic impacts: Agriculture and forestry, Urban complexes,
Fisheries and aquaculture Attributing causes of regional climate change:
Global warming, aerosols (natural and pollutants), land cover and resource
management
„Summary brochure for policy makers and the public“
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 27
Value for the managing of scientific knowledge
Value for society of BACC-type assessment reports
• Overview over the current conensus (and dissensus) view
over the current state of research for
scientists stakeholders public
Go to our websites
www.baltex-research.eu/BACC2
thebaccblog.blogspot.com
www.baltex-research.eu
Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat | BSSC 2011, St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011 28
Thank you!