Between Democracy and Authoritarianism in Southeast Asia (with reference to Thailand and Myanmar)

Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak

Professor and Director, The Institute of Security

and International Studies

Faculty of Political Science

Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok

Sir Howard Kippenberger Chair for 2015

Centre for Strategic Studies, VUW

Prepared for Catalyst/Queenstown

27 July 2015

Presentation outline

1. Conceptualising Southeast Asia2. Themes and trends3. Survey of domestic landscapes4. Premises, pitfalls, prospects

1. Conceptualising Southeast Asia History shapes and geography defines; maps as

destiny? Future more like the past Southeast Asia; South-East Asia; Far East;

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean/ASEAN)

An unnatural region of exceptional diversity and dynamism between mainland and maritime nation-states

A compelling region because of trajectories, critical mass, prospects, hedging v. China and other regions

1. Conceptualising Southeast Asia (cont.) Southeast Asia’s amidst power shifts and

power transitions in a long continuum US’ debt and dysfunction; EU’s

peak/plateau eurozone crisis/Russia Unraveling of Middle East after Sykes-

Picot; post-Arab Spring Grappling with post-WWII world order,

post-Cold War, and world disorder in the 21st century

Asean factsheet(As of 2013)

• Population: 620 million• GDP: US$2.403 trillion

Source: World Bank

CLMT

Population GDP

Cambodia 15,135,169 15,238,689,686

Laos 6,769,727 11,242,526,454

Myanmar 53,259,018 59,430,000,000

Thailand 67,010,502 387,252,164,291

Total 142,174,416 473,163,380,431Source: World Bank 2013 (Except Myanmar GDP from gms-eoc 2013)

Source: World Bank 2013 (Except Yunnan & Guangxi from gms-eoc 2012 and Myanmar GDP from gms-eoc 2013)

GMS

Population

GDP

Cambodia 15,135,169

15,238,689,686

Laos 6,769,727 11,242,526,454

Myanmar 53,259,018

59,430,000,000

Thailand 67,010,502

387,252,164,291

Vietnam 89,708,900

171,390,003,299

Yunnan & Guangxi (approx.)

93,410,000

369,820,000,000

Total 325.3mn 1.015trn

2.Themes and trends

China more dominant in mainland; US still major player in maritime (e.g. pivot and rebalance); Asean divisions/divergences

Japan as maritime power with mainland interest EU, SK, Australia, India, Russia,NZ? Incumbent domestic regimes under stress;

adjustments or tension/turmoil Between democracy, democratisation, and

authoritarianism (military/civilian) Internal conflicts and insurgencies Growth and prosperity models at risk

3. Survey of domestic landscapes Thailand: coups and crises A monarchy-centred political order

rebuilt and reshaped after 1932-58 A monarchy-military symbiosis A Cold War fighting machine:

monarchy, military and bureaucracy Victim of its twin successes:

communism at bay + development

3. Survey of domestic landscapes (cont.) Thailand (cont.): Development and

modernisation in 1960s-90s culminated with the rise of abusive and astute Thaksin Shinawatra from new elites in early 21st century; subjects v. citizens

2006 & 2014 coups: half-baked to ‘all-in’ 2014 concentrates power, delegates less,

maintains direct control NCPO junta’s governing structure: interim

charter; PM/Cabinet, NLA, NRC, Constitutional-drafting committee (CDC)

3. Survey of domestic landscapes (cont.) Thailand (cont.): Reaction and regression in the

face of 21st-century changes and dynamics International norms, technologies, absence of

Cold War, globalisation Electoral winners not allowed to rule; losers

can’t win election; poor opposition The end of Thailand as we know it A recalibrated political order is imperative;

reconciling monarchy and democracy Scenarios and prospects

2006

2014

2006

2014

2013/142006

2008

2010

2013/14

3. Survey of domestic landscapes (cont.) Myanmar: breakout from August 2011 renewed ethnic conflicts/insurgencies,

religious/communal violence between Buddhists and Muslim Rohinya/Bangladeshi

Presidential contest towards elections on 8th Nov. 2015; ethnic parties to be crucial

Key players: Aung San Suu Kyi, Speaker Thura Shwe Mann, Defence Chief Min Aung Hlaing, President Thein Sein

Elements of compromise and accommodation or backsliding; half-full

2015 – the race & the contenders

3. Survey of domestic landscapes (cont.)

Malaysia’s growing polarisation; Najib v. Mahathir; Najib/Mahathir v. Anwar; corruption/cronyism (1MDB); Najib outgoing?; longer-term crises

Philippines after Aquino (III)?; building on limited momentum; keep eye on Senator Grace Poe

Singapore’s post-LKY democratic adjustments; maintaining PAP’s dominance

Indonesia under Jokowi; domestic focus and less international statesmanship; maritime development

Vietnam’s domestic challenges and promising growth prospects

Hun Sen’s Cambodia; succession manoeuvres; CNRP’s gains; electoral demo.

Holdouts: Laos and Brunei; Laos under China

GDP Growth in Southeast Asia and Selected Asian and Developed Economies (year-on-year percentage changes)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Brunei Darusalam

3.4 0.9 -1.8 5.3 3.0

Cambodia 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3

Indonesia 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.2 5.5

Laos P.D.R. 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.4 7.2

Malaysia 5.2 5.6 4.7 5.9 5.2

Myanmar 5.9 7.3 8.3 8.5 8.5

Philippines 3.7 6.8 7.2 6.2 6.3

Singapore 6.1 2.5 3.9 3.0 3.0

Thailand 0.1 6.5 2.9 1.0 4.6

Vietnam 6.2 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6

ASEAN-10 Average

5.2 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.6

China 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.1

India 6.6 4.7 5.0 5.6 6.4

United States 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.1

Japan -0.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.8

European Union 1.7 -0.3 0.2 1.6 1.8

World Average

3.9 3.2 3 3.6 3.9

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014.

4. Premises, pitfalls, prospects Growth and prosperity need focus Downside risks: no effective security/peace

resolution framework (South China Sea, Thai-Cambodian, US-China)

Non-traditional security challenges Unstable domestic landscapes adversely affect

regional prospects Vulnerabilities to outside (China, EU, US) Democracy and authoritarianism in SEAsia Bottom Line: an appealing region and solid hedge

for New Zealand amidst global disorder