FOREIGNAFFAIRS

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ÍALADI

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Volume 93, Number 1

WHERE TO BET NOWThe Shape of Things to Come

2

Hot Markets to WatchGideon Rose and Jonathan Tepperman

Pact for Prog ress

A Conversation With Enrique Peña Nieto

MexicoViva las ReformasShannon K. O'Neil

South Korea

17The Backwater That BoomedMarcus Noland

January/February 2014

PolandFrom Tragedy to TriumphMitchell A. Orenstein

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Turkey 29

How Erdogan Did It—and Could Blow ItDaniel Dombey

Indonesia and the Philippines 37

A Tale of Two ArchipelagoesKaren Brooks

The Mekong Region 45

A River Runs Through It

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Thitinan Pongsudhirak

The Ever-Emerging Markets

52

Why Economic Forecasts FailRuchir Sharma

ESSAYSThe Unruled World

58

The Case for Good Enough Global GovernanceStewart Patrick

How China Is Ruled

74

Why Getting Harder for Beijing to GovernDavid M. Lampton

America's Social Democratic Future 86

The Arc of Policy Is Long But Bends Toward JusticeLane Kenworthy

lanuary/February 2014

ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COMAdam Minter on the

billion-dollar trade inscrap metal.

Anna-KatarinaGravgaard on Green-land's rare earths.

Ira Trivedi on theromantic revolutionsweeping India.

Running the Pentagon Right

101Howlo Get the Troops What They NeedAshton B. Carter

The Rise and Fall of the Failed-State Paradigm

113Requiem for a Decade of DistractionMichael J Mazarr

NAFTA's Economic UpsidesThe View From the United StatesCarla A. Hills

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i ALADI NAFTA's Unfinished Business

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128The View From Canada )r :CAMichael Wilson

NAFTA's Mixed RecordThe View From MexicoJorge G. Castañeda

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Iceland's Saga

142A Conversation With Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson

January/February 2014

REVIEWS & RESPONSESLet the People Go 152

The Problem With Strict Migration Limits

Michael Clemens and Justin Sandefur

'From Shah to Supreme LeaderWhat the Iranian Revolution Revealed

Laura Secor

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167Command and CombustAmerica's Secret History of Atomic AccidentsGregory D. Koblentz

Art in the Time of AuthoritarianismSpain's Cultural Success Under FrancoVictor Pérez-Díaz

Blind OracleA Response to "Never Saw It Coming"

Richard Katz

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Reverse the Curse 182

How Can Oil Help the Poor?Karol Boudreaux and Tiernan Mennen; Larry Diamond andJack Mosbacher

Recent Books 186

"Foreign Affairs . will tolerate vide differences of opinion. Its anides will not represent any consensusof beliefs. What is demanded of them is that they shall be competent and well informed, representing honestopinions seriously held and convincingly expressed. . . . It does not accept responsibiliD, for the views in anyanides, signed or unsigned, which appear in its pages. What it does accept is the responsibility for givingthem a chance to appear."

Archibald Cary Coolidge, Founding EditorVolume 1, Number 1 • September 1922

January/February 2014