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    UNREFORMWELFAREAFFIRMATIVE

    In 1996, Congress passed TANFTemporary Assistance for Needy Families anddramatically changed federal welfare policy A few of its most contro!ersial

    effects"

    It ended a federal entitlement to the poor that had e#isted $nder AF%C &Aidto Families with %ependent Children' (ather than directly assisting poorfamilies, $nder TANF the federal go!ernment pro!ides )loc* grants to thestates +eca$se the states get a set amo$nt of money no matter how manypeople recei!e welfare, )loc* grants create incenti!es for states to remo!epeople from their welfare rolls

    It imposed stringent wor* re$irements on welfare recipients*nown as-wor*fare. As a res$lt, millions of mothers were forced into low/wage 0o)sthat made them poorer than they had )een $nder welfare and depri!ed theirchildren of the care of their mother

    It placed a si#ty/month &/year' lifetime cap on )enefits, p$shing women toenter the wor*force, and remo!ing )enefits for many who li!e in long/termpo!erty and are $na)le to find a 0o)

    This plan wo$ld re!erse those three elements of the 1996 reform, restoring thefederal entitlement to welfare rather than relying on state programs, ending thewor* re$irement and remo!ing the lifetime )enefits cap

    The ad!antages for this case are"

    Poverty: 2elfare reform has made po!erty worse, denying millions of lowincome people access to )enefitsEconomy:3tatesespecially Californiaare threatening to c$t welfare)enefits )eca$se of )$dget shortfalls These spending c$ts co$ld cr$sh thereco!ery and send the economy )ac* into a tailspin

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    WELCOMEANDHOTTIPS

    Welcome to Debte!

    %e)ate is an opport$nity for yo$ to )$ild yo$r !oice and )e heard 2hen yo$de)ate, yo$ will ha!e the chance to spea* yo$r mind on topics from Ira to po!ertyin the inner city, and to pro!e yo$r s*ills against yo$ng people from all o!er the)ay %e)ate is a sport" it calls on yo$ to 0oin a team, represent yo$r school, andwin trophies, championships, and pri4es If yo$ commit yo$rself to this sport yo$will ha!e m$ch f$n5 most importantly, yo$ will gain the tools to )etter yo$rself, toearn college scholarships, and to spea* $p for yo$r entire comm$nity

    W"t #$ Debte%

    %e)ate is a competition )etween two teams, each with two de)aters ne team isassigned to )e Affirmati!e, who proposes a plan to change the world and e#plains

    why it is a good idea The other team is the Negati!e, who attac*s the plan andtries to pro!e that it will do more harm than good

    In the de)ate, e!ery person will gi!e two of their own speeches" one 7/min$tespeech called a constructiveand one /min$te long speech called a rebuttal Aftereach constr$cti!e, the opposing side gets 8 min$tes to cross-examinethe spea*erThere are eight speeches total in the ro$nd

    W"t&$ #n t"e Strter Pc'%

    The 3tarter ac* is designed to gi!e yo$ a head start on spea*ing yo$r mind inde)ate 2e recommend yo$ read thro$gh the e!idence, try to $nderstand all the

    arg$ments, and come )ac* to yo$r coaches with $estions a)o$t how to $se thise!idence to wrec* yo$r opponents ractice reading the e!idence with speed,style, and !ol$me )e $ic*, )e e#pressi!e, )e loud: In this pac*et, yo$ will finde!idence and arg$ments for many of the core positions tal*ed a)o$t at +A;%>?"

    There were 8?8 million people &1=@' in po!erty1

    There were 188 million &17@' children $nder the age of 17 in po!erty, and86 million &9?@' seniors 6 and older in po!erty

    The po!erty rate among white people was 7=@, compared to 1>=@ for

    1This is )ased on an old way of meas$ring po!erty that many )elie!e lea!es o$t millions of peoplein se!ere economic hardship 3ee Ca$then, Nancy =>>? Testimony on Beas$ring o!erty inAmerica Testimony )efore the o$se 3$)committee on Income 3ec$rity and Family 3$pport,Committee on 2ays and Beans A$g 1, =>>?

    =

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    asians, =D@ for )lac*s, and =1@ for

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    POVERT(ANDWELFARE: THENUM)ERS

    E**ect$ o* Wel*re Re*orm

    +efore TANF, more than +, -ercentof families eligi)le for welfarerecei!ed assistance thro$gh the federal go!ernment

    +y =>>=, 0$st .+ -ercentof families eligi)le for assistance recei!ed helpthro$gh TANF or separate state programs8

    The former AF%C program lifted /. -ercentof deeply poor children children with incomes )elow half the po!erty line o$t of deep po!erty

    In =>>, the TANF program lifted 0$st 01 -ercentof deeply poor children

    o$t of deep po!erty#

    S#n2le Mot"er$ n3 Wel*re

    +etween 1996 and =>>D, the n$m)er of single mothers who were wor*ingincreased )y a)o$t 4 m#ll#on

    From 1996 to =>>8, the n$m)er of single mothers who didnEt ha!e eitherwelfare or a 0o) gro$p in an a!erage month increased )y more t"n.,,5,,,

    There are now ro$ghly 4 m#ll#onpoor single mothers with 0 m#ll#on

    children in an a!erage month who neither ha!e a 0o) nor recei!ewelfareD

    +etween 1998 and =>>>, the percentage of low/income, single motherswith a 0o) grew from 7 percent to nearly 67 -ercent!7

    The federal go!ernment spends 84/!7 b#ll#onon TANF e!ery year, matched)y a)o$t 1= )illion in state BG f$nds The chart shows how the TANFmoney is spent"

    8;3 %epartment of ealth and $man 3er!ices, Indicators of 2elfare %ependence =>>,http"HHaspehhsgo!HhspHindicators>Hch=htmch=JDDCenter on +$dget and olicy riorities, -TANF at 1>" rogram (es$lts are Bore Bi#ed Thanften ;nderstood. =>>6 http"HHwwwc)pporgHcmsHinde#cfmKfaL!iewMidL6>>(on as*ins and Bar* reen)erg, =>>6 -2elfare reform, s$ccess or fail$reK. Policy &Practice

    D

    http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/indicators05/ch2.htm#ch2_4http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=600http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=600http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/indicators05/ch2.htm#ch2_4http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=600
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    EVIDENCE

    FORTHEAFFIRMATIVE

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    O)SERVATION 4: INHERENC(

    For -eo-le l#v#n2 #n -overty5 t"e US 9el*re $y$tem #$ t"e mo$t "o$t#le #nt"e 9orl3! Cl#nton&$ re*orm$ #n 4/ "ve re$;lte3 #n 3rmt#c 3ecre$e#n 9el*re bene*#t$ *or Amer#c&$ -oor!

    Tony Pltt5 Gmerit$s rofessor of 3ocial 2or* at California 3tate ;ni!ersity50,,1O-3ocial Insec$rity., Monthly Review ctP

    The United States has the most regressive system of welfare for poor people among developednations in the twenty-first century, and in recent years it has become even more punitive . The world'sself-professed leading democracy lacks a national health care policy, a universal right to health care, and a comprehensive family

    policy.Welfare applicants are subected to personal intrusions, arcane regulations, and constantsurveillance, all designed to humiliate recipients and deter potential applicants. !n recent years there has

    been a significant decrease in cash grants to the unemployed and underemployed who do not "ualify for unemployment insurance.The reorgani#ation of the welfare state began under the $linton administration with the devolutionof federal policies to the states and massive cutting of welfare rolls. The %ush administration, whiledistracted by September && and imperial ambitions, has deepened the cuts and introduced important new policiesfacilitating access of private organi#ations to federal grants. The "uickly changing economic and geopoliticalclimate has also generated a profound crisis in the ability of state and local agencies to provideade"uate human services to the unemployed and growing ranks of impoverished citi#ens andimmigrants. eanwhile, the middle and upper classes enoy one of the most privileged systems ofwelfare in the West( a regressive system of ta)ation* generous government subsidies to business*and employer- and state- subsidi#ed pension and health plans. + The welfare system draws uponraciali#ed and gendered criteria to make distinctions between worthy recipients of aid andcompassion and unworthy e)ploiters of the public trust .

    latt contin$es"

    !n ugust &/, 0resident $linton signed into law the 0ersonal 1pportunity and Work2esponsibility ct, which replaced id to 3amilies with 4ependent $hildren 534$6 withTemporary ssistance for 7eedy 3amilies 5T736. This legislation limited aid to si)ty months ina lifetime* re"uired work activities* prohibited legal immigrants from receiving 3ood Stamps andSocial Security !nsurance 5SS!6* re"uired teen parents to live at home or with adult supervision*and limited food stamps for able bodied, single, unemployed adults to three months every thirty-si) months. 586 The passage of T73 in &/ demonstrated a bipartisan commitment to attacking

    the meager gains achieved by poor and working families by the &9:s. %etween &8 and ;::&, thenation's welfare caseload was reduced from < million to ;.& million families. 5

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    4AC

    T";$ 9e o**er t"e *ollo9#n2 -ln:

    The United States federal government should amend Tem-orry A$$#$tnce *or

    Nee3y Fm#l#e$ to 2;rntee $;--ort *or el#2#ble 9el*re rec#-#ent$5to el#m#nte 9or' reo"n Hn3ler, rofessor of

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    than the United States in helping the poor.

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    T"e 4/ re*orm$ "ve t;rne3 9el*re #nto t"e mo3ern ?-oor "o;$e5@$";**l#n2 9el*re rec#-#ent$ #nto bor#n2 n3 -oorly -#3 lbor! Alon2 9#t"t"e cr#m#nl ;$t#ce $y$tem5 mo3ern 9el*re re2;lte$ t"e l#ve$ o* t"e-oor5 tr--#n2 -eo-le #n cycle$ o* -overty!

    Tony Pltt, Gmerit$s rofessor of 3ocial 2or* at California 3tate ;ni!ersity, 0,,1O-3ocial Insec$rity., Monthly Review ctP

    2e"uiring welfare participants to work in return for cash grants--a central feature of T73--isnot a new policy. Welfare grants were linked with work re"uirements in the federal Work !ncentive 0rogram5W!76 in &/9. Workfare was also promoted in the 3amily Support ct of &== under which, according to >ileen

    %oris, motivational and ob, some ;::,::: people were processed through the city's workfareprogram. ?ess than one-third have been able to find full-time or part-time work since leaving theprogram. uch of the work in the program is so menial, notes the 7ew @ork Times, that it offers

    few, if any, skills that employers demand.

    any programs that previously allowed welfare clients to undergo training and education whileon welfare have been either eliminated or drastically cut . 56 $ontemporary welfare policieslargely ignore the needs of unemployed men for education and ob training. Workfare todayserves primarily as a labor market regulator for hundreds of thousands of poor women, who arepushed into an already saturated low-wage labor market , thus decreasing the earning power ofthis whole sector of the labor force. The &/; $ommunity Work and Training 0rogram 5associated with theWar on 0overty6 was one of few welfare programs aimed at the needs of unemployed fathers. !n the last threedecades, policymakers have abandoned this kind of program. !ronically, one of the few places that poor men cannow find work--albeit e)ploitative and grossly underpaid--and mental health counseling is in prison. With a dailycount of over fifteen hundred people suffering from severe psychological illnesses, ?os ngeles $ounty Aail may be

    the country's largest mental institution. 5&:6 !mprisonment and welfare are not so much polari#edopposites, as they are constitutive elements of an interrelated policy. Similar to the poor housesof the past, which combined work with imprisonment, today's welfare and criminal usticepolicies represent a division of labor between different managerial agencies, with ails andprisons primarily containing unemployed men, and welfare agencies primarily regulatingunemployed women and their children. %oth sets of institutions disproportionately target themost e)ploited sectors of frican-merican, ?atino, merican !ndian, immigrant and poornglo communities. Some &; percent of frican-merican men ages twenty to thirty-four arecurrently in ail or prison, while frican-merican women are disproportionately on welfare.4uring the last twenty years, poor women have suffered the double indignity of declining welfare services and increasedimprisonment rates. The number of incarcerated women in the United States tripled between &=< and &9, representing tentimes the number of women imprisoned in Spain, >ngland, 3rance, Scotland, Bermany, and !taly combined. 5&&6

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    T"e $tr;ct;rl v#olence o* -overty #$ t"e b#22e$t #m-ct yo; 9#ll "er #nt"#$ 3ebte ro;n3! It #$ t"e mo$t 3e3ly n3 $#lent '#ll#n2 *orce #nAmer#c n3 t"e 9orl3!

    B#ll#2n,0,,, 0ames,%epartment of sychiatry ar!ard Bedical 3chool, Riolence"(eflections on $r %eadliest Gpidemic, =>>>, p 19/196P

    The 1D to 17 million deaths a year ca$sed )y str$ct$ral !iolence comparewith a)o$t 1>>,>>> deaths per year from armed conflict Comparing thisfre$ency of deaths from str$ct$ral !iolence to the fre$ency of thoseca$sed )y ma0or military and political !iolence, s$ch as 2orld 2ar II &anestimated D9 million military and ci!ilian deaths, incl$ding those ca$sed )y

    genocide//or a)o$t eight million per year, 198/19D', the Indonesianmassacre of 196/1966 &perhaps ?,>>> deaths', the Rietnam war &possi)lytwo million, 19D/19?8', and e!en a hypothetical n$clear e#change )etweenthe ;3 and the ;33( &=8= million', it was clear that e!en war cannot)egin to compare with str$ct$ral !iolence, which contin$es year after yearIn other words, e!ery fifteen years, on the a!erage, as many people die)eca$se of relati!e po!erty as wo$ld )e *illed in a n$clear war that ca$sed=8= million deaths 5 and e!ery single year, two to three times as many peopledie from po!erty thro$gho$t the world as were *illed )y the Na4i genocide ofthe Sews o!er a si#/year period T"#$ #$5 #n e**ect5 t"e e

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    4AC

    O)SERVATION 1: T"e economy

    Cl#*orn#&$ b;32et cr#$#$ #$ -;$"#n2 3r$t#c c;t$ #n 9el*re! T"e$e c;t$ tot"e $oc#l $*ety net re rel t"ret to Amer#c&$ econom#c recovery!

    L#n 0,, &S$dy is a staff writer for the associated press, oc*ets empty, Califconsiders deep c$ts in spending for the stateUs most !$lnera)le residentsE, S$ne ?th,=>>9'

    With empty pockets and ma)ed-out credit, $alifornia is debating whether it can continuehonoring all parts of its social contract with the state's most vulnerable residents. The state facesan unprecedented drop in ta) revenue and a widening budget deficit amid the deepest recessionin decades, prompting Bov. rnold Schwar#enegger to propose cost-cutting steps that onceseemed unthinkable. t stake are programs for the poor, elderly and frail, placing millions of

    people in the nation's most populous state at risk of falling through a decades-old social safetynet .

    $alifornia spent

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    health insurance program for poor children *and D/.; million more from state parks.

    1=

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    Cl#*orn# 9el*re c;t$ 9#ll cr;$" t"e emer2#n2 econom#c recovery

    er)st =>>9, &Boira, CaliforniaUs Gconomy" Too +ig to FailK %espite a =D )illion)$dget deficit and a legislat$re in stalemate, California lawma*ers ha!enUtpers$aded the )ama Administration to )ail o$t the stateE S$ne 16th'

    t the same time,the state could institute massive cuts in public services such as its welfare program,which serves &.F million people. The worry is that these efforts to balance $alifornia's statebudget would work in a direct cross-purpose with the D9=9 billion U.S. stimulus package1bama signed +a default by $alifornia or any other stateGor even severe spending cuts to balance their budgetsGwould take considerable stimulus out of the U.S. economy when it can least afford it. Ee saysthat state and local economies are pro-cyclical, meaning they are e)acerbating the downturneven as the federal government pumps money into the economy. States are raising ta)es and

    cutting spending, while the feds are trying to achieve e)actly the opposite. Says 4hawan(

    The fiscallandscape at the state and local level is more brutal than at the federal level, where you hear talkof 'green shoots' emerging. The e)terior paint may look 1.C., but the inside of the house iscrumbling .

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    US econom#c coll-$e 9#ll c;$e n;cler 9r

    Fried)erg and 3choenfeld =>>7, &Aaron is a professor of politics and internationalrelations at rinceton ;ni!ersityUs 2oodrow 2ilson 3chool, a)irel is senior editorof Commentary, is a !isiting scholar at the 2itherspoon Instit$te in rinceton, NS-The %angers of %iminished America. 2all 3treet So$rnal, 1>H=1'

    The worldwide use of the dollar, and the stability of our economy , among other things, made it easier for us torun huge budget deficits, as we counted on foreigners to pick up the tab by buying dollar-denominated assets as a safe haven. Will this be possible in the futureH eanwhile, traditionalforeign-policy challenges are multiplying. The threat from al Iaeda and !slamic terroristaffiliates has not been e)tinguished. !ran and 7orth Corea are continuing on their bellicosepaths, while 0akistan and fghanistan are progressing smartly down the road to chaos. 2ussia'snew militancy and $hina's seemingly relentless rise also give cause for concern. !f merica now

    tries to pull back from the world stage, it will leave a dangerous power vacuum. The stabili#ingeffects of our presence in sia , our continuing commitment to >urope, and our position asdefender of last resort for iddle >ast energy sources and supply lines could all be placed atrisk . !n such a scenario there are shades of the &F:s, when global trade and finance groundnearly to a halt , the peaceful democracies failed to cooperate, and aggressive powers led by theremorseless fanatics who rose up on the crest of economic disaster e)ploited their divisions .Today we run the risk that rogue states may choose to become ever more reckless with theirnuclear toys, ust at our moment of ma)imum vulnerability . The aftershocks of the financialcrisis will almost certainly rock our principal strategic competitors even harder than they willrock us . The dramatic free fall of the 2ussian stock market has demonstrated the fragility of astate whose economic performance hinges on high oil prices, now driven down by the global

    slowdown. $hina is perhaps even more fragile , its economic growth depending heavily onforeign investment and access to foreign markets . %oth will now be constricted, inflictingeconomic pain and perhaps even sparking unrest in a country where political legitimacy rests onprogress in the long march to prosperity. 7one of this is good news if the authoritarian leadersof these countries seek to divert attention from internal travails with e)ternal adventures.

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    0AC: POVERT(

    Wel*re re*orm 3#3 not re3;ce -overty

    $i L#, Gastern Illinois ;ni!ersity, 0,,+

    Owith B$*ti ;padhyay http"HHeconomics)$lletin!ander)ilted$H=>>7H!ol$me9HG+/>?I8>>>8ApdfP

    +y imposing strict wor* re$irements, (2(A ended the si# decades longAid to Families with %ependent Children &AF%C' that had not re$ired the aidrecipients to wor* for pay The new legislation replaced it rate $p and drawmore wor*ers into the la)or poo l &$ndersen and Vilia* =>>D, ang et al=>>D' Qet, the entry of poor low/s*ill wor*ers in the la)or mar*et does notg$arantee an increase in their real income as higher wages might red$cewelfare )enefits and ne$trali4e earned income increases &+lan* =>>=' Tho$gh (2(A does notdirectly target po!erty red$ction since the new welfare is a program of temporary assistance, a policythat see*s to enco$rage wor* is e#pected to ha!e relati!ely strong implications for po!erty

    alle!iation 2e find, howe!er, that despite significant red$ction in the TANF caseloadsthe welfare reform implemented in 1996 has not red$ced po!ertysignificantly in the ;3 2e apply a two/ stage estimation proced$re with thefi#ed/ and random/effects model $sing panel data from 1991 thro$gh =>>8$r res$lts do s$ggest that a decrease in TANF or in $nemployment rateleads to a lower po!erty le!el, )$t that the welfare reform started in 1996has failed to contri)$te significantly to po!erty red$ction

    Wel*re to 9or' -ro2rm$ 3on&t br#n2 -eo-le o;t o* -overty t"ey tr-

    t"em #n -oorly -#3 ob$!Sohn Hn3ler, rofessor of

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    steadily and have access to higher-paying jobs.

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    0AC: ECONOM(T"e#r r2;ment$ bo;t 2overnment #ntervent#on "ve #t bc'9r3$ T"eUS economy #$ #n l#ven if something would be overall good policy, it needs to be in the budget,and you

    need to pay for it, she said. There are real budget constraints that prevent that going forward. 4anielle >wen, director

    1?

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    of child care and early education policy at the $enter for ?aw and Social 0olicy, called thestimulus's social spending essential to helping lower-income mericans regain their economicbearings. !t is about getting people to work and making sure they can afford basic things tokeep their families safe and secure, she said.

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    0AC: A0 RECRUITMENTDA NOULING

    Mny Ot"er Mot#vt#on$ For Enl#$tment )e$#3e$ F#nnc#l Nee3 l#'ePtr#ot#$m n3 Fm#ly H#$tory o* Serv#ce

    Mr#$cl, teacher, ;C 3an %iego, ;3 Army !eteran, 0,,

    OSorge, The Free >9

    http"HHwwwthefreeli)rarycomHTheWpo!ertyWdraft"WdoWmilitaryWrecr$itersWdisproportionatelyWtarget/a>16898978?P

    NT A8,>,>718=col$mnP

    +$t recent st$dies of military demographics s$ggest that todayUs military is

    neither $ned$cated nor poor 3tatistically, the enlisted ran*s of the militaryare drawn mainly from neigh)orhoods that are slightly more **l;ent thanthe norm The !ery poor are act$ally ;n3erre-re$ente3 in the military,relati!e to the n$m)er of !ery poor people in the pop$lation ThatUs mainly)eca$se the military wonUt accept the lowest academic achie!ers The Armylimits recr$its witho$t high school degrees to 8 1H= @ of the pool, forinstance, while the Barines wonUt accept recr$its witho$t high schooldegrees o!erty correlates strongly with high school dropo$t rates, so theser$les significantly limit the access of the !ery poor to military ser!ice

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    0AC: A0 RECRUITMENTDA NOU

    Wr$ re t"e re$on *or recr;#tment $"ort*ll$

    Hr3#n2 0,,+&Thomas, %efence Correspondent, 3hortage of fficer (ecr$its itsArmy, The %aily Telegraph & recr$its short of the ?> needed to maintain n$m)ers each yearAbo;t 057,, more -er$onnel leve t"e Arme3 Force$ ec" yer t"nre recr;#te3 n3 more t"n 4,5,,, $ol3#er$ n3 o**#cer$ re ;n*#t*or *rontl#ne 3;ty bec;$e o* Jto;r *t#2;eKK!Ba0or en %a!id ($therford/Sones, the commandant of 3andh$rst, said

    politicians needed to XsellUU the wars in Afghanistan and Ira to help ma*e $pfor the shortfall in yo$ng leadersXS$st )eca$se we are o$t on operations is a factor to o$r strength, not anegati!e,UU said en ($therford/SonesXI thin* my 0o) is to sell not necessarily what we are doing in Afghanistan andIra as a reason why yo$ want to 0oin the Army, )$t to sell the !al$e of )eingin a world/class organisationUUM#l#try commn3er$ re 3ebt#n2 9"et"er to boo$t n;mber$ #nA*2"n#$tn ne=t yer to bo;t 405,,, *ollo9#n2 t"e l#'ely9#t"3r9l o* troo-$ *rom Ir< ne=t $;mmer!It #$ *ere3 t"t e**ort$ to recr;#t more o**#cer$ n3 $ol3#er$ re

    be#n2 "m-ere3 by t"e "r3$"#-$ t"t troo-$ *ce5 9#t" cr#t#c$$y#n2 t"t t"e Army #$ 3n2ero;$ly over$tretc"e3 n3 t"t $ol3#er$on t"e *ront l#ne$ lc' v#tl e

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    0AC: A0 RECRUITMENTDA HEBDOOMED

    Even 9#t" #ncre$e3 recr;#tment5 US "e2emony #$ 3oome3

    Carden =>>9 &Bichael S, Army 3gt 1st class, Army, Barine Crops S$ggie igh%emands for ro$nd Forces, American Forces ress 3er!ice, April =8, Chen'

    W#t" U!S! m#l#try member$ $erv#n2 #n more t"n 40, co;ntr#e$t"ro;2"o;t t"e 9orl3 $ 9ell $ meet#n2 re

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    0AC: A0 RECRUITMENTDA HEB)AD

    TURN: US "e2emony r#$'$ n;cler 9r

    ++C =>>7 &++C, +ritish )roadcasting corporation that pro!ides e#tensi!e mediaco!erage, it is the worldEs largest )roadcaster, -;3 military policy ca$sing armsrace, n$clear threat / North orean party paper., ++C Bonitoring Asia acific, S$ly1?, =>>7,

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    4Amer#cn "e2emony #$ v#olent #m-er#l#$m! It ;t"or#e$ 2enoc#3lv#olence n3 re$;lt$ #n co;nterblnc#n2 n3 $ymmetr#cl 9r*re 9"#c"e=cerbte 2lobl con*l#ct! T"e #m-ct #$ e=t#nct#on!

    Foster, co/editor of Bonthly (e!iew, professor of sociology at the ;ni!ersity ofregon, =*8 OSohn, -The new Age of Imperialism,. Bonthly (e!iew 8P

    At the same time, it is clear that in the present period of glo)al hegemonicimperialism the ;nited 3tates is geared a)o!e all to e#panding its imperialpower to whate!er e#tent possi)le and s$)ordinating the rest of thecapitalistworld to its interestsY

    It wo$ld )e impossi)le to e#aggerate how dangero$s thisd$al e#pansionismof ;3 corporations and the ;3 stateis to the world at large

    As Ist!an Bes4aros o)ser!ed in =>>1 in 3ocialism or +ar)arism,the;3 attempt to sei4eglo)al control, which is inherent in the wor*ings of capitalism and imperialism,is nowthreatening h$manity with the Xe#treme !iolent r$le of the whole world )yone hegemonic imperialist co$ntry on a permanent )asisan a)s$rd and$ns$staina)le way of r$nning the world orderXZ This new age of ;3imperialism will generate its own contradictions, amongst them attempts )yother ma0or powers to assert their infl$ence, resorting to similar )elligerentmeans , and all sorts of strategies )y wea*er states and non/state actors toengage in XasymmetricX forms of warfare i!en the $nprecedenteddestr$cti!eness of contemporary weapons, which are diff$sed e!er morewidely, the conse$ences for the pop$lation of the world co$ld well )e

    de!astating )eyond anything e!er )efore witnessed (ather thangeneratinga new Xa# AmericanaX the ;nited 3tates may )e pa!ing the wayto new glo)al holoca$stsThe greatest hope in these dire circ$mstances lies in a rising tide of re!olt from )elow , )oth in the;nited 3tates and glo)ally The growth of the antiglo)ali4ation mo!ement, which dominated the worldstage for nearly two years following the e!ents in 3eattle in No!em)er 1999, was s$cceeded inFe)r$ary =>>8 )y the largest glo)al wa!e of antiwar protests in h$man history Ne!er )efore has theworldUs pop$lation risen $p so $ic*ly and in s$ch massi!e n$m)ers in the attempt to stop animperialist war The new age of imperialism is also a new age of re!oltThe Rietnam 3yndrome, which has so worried the strategic planners of the imperial order for decades,now seems not only to ha!e left a deep legacy within the ;nited 3tates )$t also to ha!e )een co$pledthis time aro$nd with an Gmpire 3yndrome on a m$ch more glo)al scale//something that no one really

    e#pectedThis more than anything else ma*es it clear thatthe strategy of the American

    r$ling class to e#pand the American Gmpire cannot possi)ly s$cceed in thelong r$n, and will pro!e to )e its own//we hope not the worldUs$ndoing

    =8

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    EVIDENCE

    FORTHE

    NEGATIVE

    =D

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    NEB: A0 POVERT(ADV

    T;rn: Wel*re re*orm "$ re3;ce3 -overty

    (o)ert (ector, 3enior (esearch Fellow in 2elfare and Family Iss$es at the eritageFo$ndation, =>>6

    O6H19 http"HHwwwheritageorgH(esearchH2elfareHtst>?19>6acfmP

    Ten years ago, resident +ill Clinton signed legislation o!erha$ling part ofthe nationEs welfare system The ersonal (esponsi)ility and 2or* pport$nity (econciliationAct of 1996 &D198, (2(A' replaced the failed social program *nown as Aid to Families with%ependent Children &AF%C' with a new program called Temporary Assistance to Needy Families&TANF' The reform legislation had three goals" &1' to red$ce welfare dependence and increaseemployment5 &=' to red$ce child po!erty5 and &8' to red$ce illegitimacy and strengthen marriageAtthe time of its enactment, li)eral gro$ps passionately deno$nced the welfare reform legislation,predicting that it wo$ld res$lt in s$)stantial increases in po!erty, h$nger, and other social ills Contrary

    to these alarming forecasts, welfare reform has )een effecti!e in meeting each of its goals

    Child po!erty has fallen Altho$gh opponents of reform predicted it wo$ldincrease child po!erty, some 16 million fewer children li!e in po!erty todaythan in 199%ecreases in po!erty ha!e )een greatest among )lac* children In the$arter cent$ry prior to welfare reform, the old welfare system failed tored$ce po!erty among )lac* children 3ince welfare reform, the po!erty rateamong )lac* children has fallen at an $nprecedented rate from D1 percentin 199 to 8=9 percent in =>>D;nprecedented declines in po!erty also occ$rred among children of singlemothers For a $arter/cent$ry )efore welfare reform, there was little netdecline in po!erty in this gro$p o!ertywas only slightly lower in 199 &>8

    percent' than it had )een in 19?1 &81 percent' After the enactment ofwelfare reform, the po!erty rate for children of single mothers fell at adramatic rate, from >8 percent in 199 to D19 percent in =>>D2elfare caseloads were c$t in half The AF%CHTANF caseload dropped fromD8 million families at the time (2(A was enacted to 179 million todayGmployment of single mothers has s$rged The employment rate of the mostdisad!antaged single mothers increased from > percent to 1>> percent

    =

    http://www.heritage.org/Research/Welfare/tst071906a.cfmhttp://www.heritage.org/Research/Welfare/tst071906a.cfm
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    NEB: A0 POVERT(ADV

    Wel*re re*orm "$ $;ccee3e39or' re

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    NEB: A0 ECONOM(ADVT;rn: Bovernment #ntervent#on ";rt$ t"e -oor n3 $lo9$ t"e recovery

    Terry M#ller, %irector of the Center for International Trade and Gconomics at theeritage Fo$ndation, 0,,Ohttp"HHwwwheritageorgH(esearchHGconomyHtst>61>>9acfmP

    Tho$gh we sit today at what may well )e the low point of a recession that has seen world economic

    growth slow to near 4ero, it is important to remem)er that what we are e#periencing is atemporary set)ac* If one ta*es a longer !iew, it is clear that the economic policies thatha!e come to dominate world economic thin*ing o!er the last 6> years, and especially since the fall of

    the 3o!iet ;nion, are prod$cing strong )road/)ased growth, growth that isincreasing prosperity and red$cing po!erty aro$nd the world The n$m)ersare not am)ig$o$s !er the last decade, per capita income in all co$ntriesof the world com)ined has increased )y an a!erage of a)o$t three percentper year !er the 1> years, that adds $p to an increase of o!er one/third in a!erage world incomes Thegrowth in incomes is remar*a)ly )road/)ased, not concentrated in 0$st a few co$ntries or regions f the 16co$ntries for which we ha!e relia)le data, only 1= failed to participate in this positi!e growth o!er the decade Theeconomic system that has )een prod$cing these remar*a)le res$lts is *nown )y !ario$s names Bost economistswo$ld call it the free mar*et system or capitalism 3ome identify it with glo)ali4ation 3ome call it the 2ashingtonConsens$s, )eca$se it represents the consens$s of !iews and policies espo$sed )y the 2orld +an*, theInternational Bonetary F$nd and, at least $ntil recently, the go!ernment of the ;nited 3tates At The eritageFo$ndation, we call it economic freedom, and we meas$re it each year in the Index of !conomic "reedom, which we

    p$)lish 0ointly with #he Wall $treet %ournalThe *ey principles of economic freedom areindi!id$al empowerment, non/discrimination, and the dispersion of power"Indi!id$al empowerment means that indi!id$als retain control of where they li!e and how m$ch they wor* Theyha!e the right to own property and decide when and how to spend their wealth and income Non/discriminationmeans that there sho$ld )e no preferences )ased on race, gender, religion, class, family connections or any others$ch trait Gach indi!id$al deser!es an e$al opport$nity to prosper to the f$ll e#tent of their a)ility and effortTransparency in decision/ma*ing is a *ey aspect in ens$ring s$ch fairness5 it is )ehind walls of secrecy thatdiscrimination most often flo$rishes %ispersion of power means p$rs$ing policies and practices that fostercompetition in la)or mar*ets, in capital mar*ets, )etween firms and e!en among co$ntries The separation ofpolitical and economic power is a *ey aspect in the dispersion of power Co$ntries that respect these principles of

    economic freedom do far )etter on a!erage economically than co$ntries in which go!ernments play a moreintr$si!e role The co$ntries ran*ed as most free in the =>>9 Index of !conomic "reedomhad a!erage per capitaincomes of o!er D>,>>>, more than 1> times the income le!els in co$ntries where economic freedoms arerepressed 3ome critici4e the free mar*et system as good for the rich )$t not for the poor The data show

    otherwise 2hen we compare economic freedom scores with po!erty le!els asmeas$red in the ;nited Nations $man o!erty Inde#, we find that co$ntriesthat gained at least points of economic freedom in the decade )etween199? and =>>? mo!ed almost 6 percent of their pop$lations o$t of po!ertyon a!erage Co$ntries that lost at least points of economic freedom, )y contrast, saw po!ertyle!els increase The same positi!e trends are e!ident in connection with social de!elopment in areasli*e ed$cation, health, child or maternal mortality, and o!erall life e#pectancy, as well as in protectionof the en!ironment, where co$ntries that are more economically free do a far )etter 0o) than their less

    free co$nterparts i!en these positi!e long term trends, and the pro!en good

    economic res$lts in co$ntries aro$nd the world that respect principles ofeconomic freedom and mar*et/)ased decision/ma*ing, I wo$ld s$)mit thatthe first responsi)ility of policy ma*ers in leading economies, especially in atime of downt$rn or crisis, is to preser!e the capitalist system and to do noharm Bar*ets are )y and large self/correcting o!ernment inter!entions,which are almost always designed to restore or protect the stat$s $o ante,impede the correcti!e action of the mar*et and th$s slow reco!ery

    =?

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    NEB: A0 ECONOM(ADV

    Bovernment $t#m;l;$ m'e$ t"e economy 9or$e

    aren Cm-bell, olicy Analyst in Bacroeconomics in the Center for %ata Analysisat The eritage Fo$ndation, 0,, OH==http"HHwwwheritageorgH(esearchHGconomyHwm=DcfmP

    resident +arac* )ama calls his stim$l$s )illO1P and proposed )$dget anXin!estmentX plan, implicitly recogni4ing that in!estment//rather than simplyspending//creates economic growth +$t this plan is )ased on the fa$ltyass$mption that only go!ernment is a)le and responsi)le eno$gh to in!est atthis time ri!ate in!estors ha!e a personal sta*e in the o$tcome of theirin!estments +$t when politicians play entreprene$r with ta#payer money,that lin* does not e#ist5 instead, the ris*Hreward is meas$red in terms ofpolitical o$tcomes In addition, central planning of the national in!estment

    portfolio can" (ed$ce the di!ersification of ;3 in!estments5 Ca$se thego!ernment to ha!e potential conflicts of interest and compromise itso!ersight a)ility5 2ea*en s$pport for the political systemO=P5 and%isempower indi!id$als and diminish entreprene$rial capital

    =7

    http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm2455.cfm#_ftn1http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm2455.cfm#_ftn1http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm2455.cfm#_ftn2http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm2455.cfm#_ftn1http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm2455.cfm#_ftn2
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    NEB: RECRUITMENTDA 4NC

    A! Un#>, it appears the;3 will ha!e to retain some 1=>,>>>/18>,>>> troops in these co$ntries well into the year

    At the same time, the entagon seems headed for t$r)$lent times as it stri!es to*eep the all/!ol$nteer force at f$ll strength Critics of these wars $se phrasess$ch as Xo!er stretchedX and X)rea*ing pointX to descri)e the strains on the

    force str$ct$re Y

    A Fe)r$ary =>>1 st$dy for the ;3 Army (esearch Instit$te for the+eha!ioral and 3ocial 3ciences re!eals the recr$itersU game plan The st$dyXs$ggested that categori4ing potential recr$its )ased on their careerdecision/ma*ing patterns and their parentsU socioeconomic stat$s may )e$sef$l for targeting recr$iting strategies For e#ample,more financiallyconstrained, goal/oriented yo$th may respond more positi!ely to theed$cational or financial )enefits a!aila)le thro$gh military ser!iceX

    This foc$s on financially !$lnera)le yo$th in the Xlower middle classX is a *ey

    part of recr$iting efforts today Technology in the form of comp$ter/assistedtrac*ing of teens in Xfinancially constrainedX $r)an areas, where$nemployment is high and opport$nities for ad!ancement is limited, has)ecome standard practice+$t this is 0$st the )eginning" the p$rs$it goes well )eyondelectrons and )eyond local high schools It goes into shopping malls fre$ented )y XfinanciallyrestrainedX families, to wee*end e!ents, and e!en into yo$th Xhango$tsX

    Traditionally, Xfinancially constrainedX translated into minority encla!eswhere many regard the military as a way to impro!e oneUs prospectshonora)ly +$t when recr$iters conscio$sly target a neigh)orhood or school/or as the +oston lo)ep$t it, Xsat$rates life at a wor*ing class p$)lic school,X/the p$)lic iss$e shifts from the opport$nitiesa!aila)le to f$lfill the aspirations of teens to the fairness of a system that intentionally e#ploits the

    economic aspirations of others(ecr$iting ind$cements incl$de money for college &$p to ?>,>>>',scholarships,0o) training, and some !ery large/as m$ch as 1,>>>/)on$ses for enlisting ncethey sign a few new enlistees, recr$iters *now and play on two teen propensities to p$ll in more andmore recr$its" peer press$re to X0oin the herdX )y doing what their friends do, and the ina)ility to f$llycomprehend conse$ences in form$lating long/term plans

    The fact that military recr$iters are an insistent economic XpresenceX incaref$lly targeted locales gi!es credence to the charge that the entagonUstactics for filling the forces amo$nts to an Xeconomic draftX

    =9

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    NEB: RECRUITMENTDA 4NC)! L#n'!

    4! Bovernment Prov#$#on O* Incre$e3 Vl;ble Serv#ce$ To T"o$e InPoverty Wo;l3 M'e T"e M#l#try Relt#vely Le$$ Attrct#ve An3 C#v#lSoc#ety More Attrct#ve!

    Sc"#c'el, Time Baga4ine, 0,,+

    O(ichard, Time Baga4ine, 8=7=>>7P

    It is also that we donUt want to ac*nowledge that this war has largely )eenfo$ght )y a !ictim class whose moti!es for 0oining the military are rarelyno)le or e#emplary These are people for whom the military with itsenlistment )on$ses, its promises of health, ed$cational and e!en tra!el)enefits represents their )est chance to escape a minim$m/wage life It is

    a meas$re of their desperation that they are willing to ris* their li!es to claimthese )oons It is a meas$re of their d$tif$lness that they often e!o*e acertain patriotism to rationali4e their choice There is nothing igno)le a)o$tthis deal and there is nothing igno)le when they reali4e that their idealismcannot s$stain the sacrifices they are called $pon to ma*e

    0! Any Lo$$ O* Recr;#t$ Wo;l3 H;rt Amer#cn M#l#try Re3#ne$$)ec;$e T"e Arme3 Force$ Are Alre3y Stretc"e3 T"#n

    C$ey, Chief of 3taff, ;3 Army, 0,,

    Oeorge, ArmyBil, 1=>>9 http"HHwwwarmymilH/speechesH=>>9H>1H1H1?7D/nominati!e/sgm/conference/remar*s/0an//=>>9HP

    2ith the help of the 3ecretary of %efense, we mo!ed it forward to =>1> Thepersonnel g$ys tell me now that we will meet o$r end strength goal thisyear, in U>9, )eca$se of recr$iting and retention Now the str$ct$re is stillgoing to come in at a)o$t the same pace 2e canUt accelerate that +$t weUllmeet o$r end strength goal this year, and thatUs a )ig step ,>>> men and women enlisted or reenlisted in the Army $ard and(eser!es ThatUs a healthy force +$t weUre still stretched

    8>

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    C! Im-ct

    4! Recr;#tment #$ 'ey to US "e2emony

    Gr;el 0,,&Sohn S, 2riter of American Forces ress, ates Calls for Increase of==,>>> 3oldiers, American Forces ress 3er!ice, S$ly =>,'

    ? T"e c;m;lt#ve e**ect o* t"e$e *ctor$ #$ t"t t"e Army *ce$ -er#o3 9"ere #t$ b#l#ty to cont#n;e to 3e-loy combt ;n#t$ tcce-tble *#ll rte$& #$ t r#$'5. he said?)$e3 on c;rrent 3e-loymente$t#mte$5 t"#$ #$ tem-orry c"llen2e 9"#c" 9#ll -e' #n t"ecom#n2 yer n3 bte over t"e co;r$e o* t"e ne=t t"ree yer$!@3ome 18>,>>> American forces are in Ira and 7,>>> are in Afghanistan, where an infl$# of deploying troops will

    )ring the n$m)er to 67,>>> )y the end of this year, defense officials said-These33#t#onl *orce$ 9#ll be ;$e3 to en$;re t"t o;r 3e-loy#n2;n#t$ re -ro-erly mnne35 n3 not to crete ne9 combt*ormt#on$5@the defense secretary said, adding that the decision was made after cons$lting with theArmyEs top military and ci!ilian leadership and with the )ac*ing of resident +arac* )amaates, who has descri)ed the defense )$dget as -4ero s$m,. said the cost of the Army increase wo$ld )e a)sor)edin f$nding already allocated in the )$dget for the ne#t two fiscal years

    -2e will ta*e that money from someplace that isnEt as high a priority as 33#n2 more $ol3#er$n3 t'#n2 $ome 33#t#onl $te-$ to rel#eve t"e $tre$$ on t"e *orce,.he said -This#$ very "#2" -r#or#ty.

    0! US "e2emony $to-$ 2lobl n;cler 9rG"l#l3 47&Valmay, Bem)er of the ro0ect for the New American Cent$ry and;3 Am)assador to Ira, The 2ashington [$arterly, -

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    NEG3 U4 E5TENSION

    M#l#try #$ meet#n2 #t$ recr;#tment 2ol$5 b;t ;$t brely

    Carter =>>? &3ara A, 2riter of The 2ashington Times, Army hits goals, )$t recr$itsdrop5 %elayed entry at historic low, The 2ashington Times, No!em)er >1, Nation3ection" A>6, Chen'

    A top Army official said that lt"o;2" t"e $erv#ce "$ met #t$ overll2ol$ *or recr;#tment t"#$ *#$cl yer5 t"e -roce$$ "$ been 3#**#c;ltn3 t"e n;mber o* 3vnce recr;#t$ *or ne=t yer #$ t "#$tor#c lo9$!JSeven t"o;$n3 3elye3 entry #$ "#$tor#clly t"e lo9e$t 3elye3entry -ool t"t 9eKve "3 since the start of the !ol$nteer Army,X en2allace said XSo t"t #$ o* concern to ;$ bec;$e t"e 3elye3entry-ro2rm 2#ve$ ;$ 2;rntee3 enl#$tee$ to meet o;r 2ol t"ro;2"o;t

    t"e yer!J

    M#l#try #$ brely meet#n2 #t$ recr;#tment nee3$ no9

    Te#no9#t0,, &Ira, 2riter of Ad!ertising Age, Gconomy, easing on Ira )oostingArmy recr$itment5 Gnlistments e#ceed goal )$t smarter, more digital mar*eting alsocredited, Ad!ertising Age, Barch >=, NG23" page 8, Chen'

    T"e economy my be b3 ne9$ to mo$t mr'eter$5 b;tto the ;3Army5 #tK$ m'#n2 t"e ob o* recr;#t#n2 l#ttle e$#er!

    To- o**#c#l$who o!ersee the ArmyUs recr$itment say they, too, wo$ld li*eto see things impro!e, )$t they c'no9le32e t"t t"e economy5to2et"er 9#t" e$#n2 9orr#e$ bo;t v#olence #n Ir< n3 evenPre$#3ent )rc' Obm&$ elect#on5 #$ "el-#n2 t"e#r t$'!\\I )elie!e it is a change in administration and optimism,UU said

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    NEG3 A2 OTHERFACTORSCAUSEENLISTMENT

    Mo$t Enl#$tee$ Are ?Lo9 Pro-en$#ty@ An3 T"ey Are Mot#vte3 )yF#nnc#l Re$on$5 A Fe9 Are ?H#2" Pro-en$#ty@ An3 T"ey Are Mot#vte3Pr#mr#ly )y Ptr#ot#$m

    Woo3r;**, ;3 Bilitary Academy, 0,,/

    OTodd, ropensity to 3er!e and Boti!ation to Gnlist Among American Com)at3oldiers, A(BG% F(CG3 M 3CIGTQ, April =>>6 p868P

    $r analysis leads $s to fi!e findings First, o$r data confirm that the armyemploys a large n$m)er of low/propensity soldiers in the com)at arms andthat, indeed, in this sample, they constit$te a strong ma0ority 3econd, o$rdata s$ggest that the instit$tional and occ$pational models that ha!e )eencentral to the research agenda of military sociology for three decades do not

    capt$re the comple#ity of moti!ations to ser!e For e#ample, we noted at theo$tset that while Bos*os !iewed ed$cational )enefits as an instit$tionalaspect of military ser!ice, economists !iew these same )enefits asocc$pational $r findings s$ggest that ed$cational )enefits fit clearly inneither of these two models and that, perhaps, a life/co$rse perspecti!e ismore $sef$l for $nderstanding this aspect of enlistment moti!ation Inpartic$lar, prior research has shown the infl$ence of ed$cation on f$t$redirections and achie!ement among !eterans Bilitary ser!ice leads toed$cational )enefits, which, in t$rn, infl$ence s$)se$ent life/co$rsetra0ectories Third, o$r data s$ggest that high/propensity soldiers arestrongly infl$enced )y patriotic moti!es and )y their plans for the f$t$re,

    potentially incl$ding military careers Fo$rth, these two factors are alsopowerf$l infl$ences on the enlistment of low/propensity soldiers, )$t for thisgro$p, they are negati!ely associated with moti!ations for 0oining theser!ice Con!ersely, low/propensity soldiers seem more responsi!e toocc$pational and pec$niary moti!ations

    T"ere I$ A D#rect5 L#ner Relt#on$"#- )et9een Recr;#tment Level$ An3Econom#c Nee3

    Ne9 (or' T#me$ 0,,

    OBore Americans Soining Bilitary as So)s %windle, 119=>>9http"HHwwwnytimescomH=>>9H>1H19H$sH19recr$itshtmlP

    Now, at least, the pool has widened (ecr$iting offices are reporting a 0$mpin the n$m)er of yo$ng men and women in$iring a)o$t 0oining the ser!icein the past three months As a r$le, when $nemployment rates clim) so domilitary enlistments In No!em)er, the Army recr$ited ,6> acti!e/d$tysoldiers, 6 percent more than its target, and the Army (eser!e signed $p

    88

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    8,=?> soldiers, 16 percent more than its goal %ecem)er, when the 0o)lessrate reached ?= percent, saw similar increases in recr$itments -They aresaying, There are no 0o)s, no one is hiring,E or if someone is hiring they arenot getting eno$gh ho$rs to s$pport their families or themsel!es,. said 3gtFirst Class hillip

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    Fall 2009

    NEB: A0 HEBDOOMED

    Incre$e o* recr;#tment level $ >7H>=Hdefense/department/told/to/restore/military/readinessH, Chen'

    2hile %% has o!ercome diffic$lt challenges in maintaining a high pace ofoperations o!er the past 6 years and ;3 forces ha!e gained considera)lecom)at e#perience, reports ha!e shown that e=ten3e3 o-ert#on$ #n Ir>9 &>9Fe)19H>,D6?>,Bilitary(is*,>>html, Chen'

    The assessment finds that t"e U!S! cont#n;e$ to *ce -er$#$tentterror#$t t"ret$5 n3 t"e m#l#try #$ $t#ll $tretc"e3 n3 $tr#ne3 *romlon2 n3 re-ete3 to;r$ to t"e 9r*ront!3enior military officials spo*e a)o$t the report on condition of anonymity)eca$se it is a classified doc$mentrepared e!ery year, and ro$tinely deli!ered to Congress with the )$dget,

    t"e r#$' $$e$$ment -#nt$ bro3 -#ct;re o* t"e $ec;r#ty t"ret$n3 "ot$-ot$ ro;n3 t"e 9orl3 n3 t"e U!S! m#l#tryK$ b#l#ty to 3el9#t" t"em B$llen has deli!ered it to %efense 3ecretary (o)ert ates+eca$se the threat is rated as significant, ates will send an accompanyingreport to Congress o$tlining what the military is doing to address the ris*sThat report has not yet )een finishedT"#$ yerK$ $$e$$ment *#n3$ mny o* t"e $me 2lobl $ec;r#ty#$$;e$ $ -rev#o;$ yer$ rn2#n2 *rom terror#$t or2n#t#on$ n3;n$tble 2overnment$ to t"e -otent#l *or "#2"tec" cyber ttc'$!It l$o re*lect$ t"e Pent2onK$ on2o#n2 $tr;22le to m#nt#n m#l#try t"t cn re$-on3 to t"ret$ *rom ot"er co;ntr#e$5 9"#le

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    BAUDL Starter Pack

    Fall 2009

    NEB: A0 HEB)AD

    US "e2emony #$ 'ey to -revent#n2 mor 9r$ n3 #$5 t #t$ 9or$t5 bettert"n ny lternt#ve!

    agan, 3enior Associate ] the Carnegie Gndowment for International eace, =>>?

    O(o)ert, A$g$stH3eptem)er =>>?, -Gnd of %reams, (et$rn of istory.,http"HHwwwhoo!erorgHp$)licationsHpolicyre!iewH7=1=htmln1>P

    The 0ostling for stat$s and infl$ence among these am)itio$s nations andwo$ld/)e nations is a second defining feat$re of the new post/Cold 2arinternational system Nationalism in all its forms is )ac* , if it e!er went away,and so is international competition for power,infl$ence, honor, and stat$sAmerican predominance -revent$ t"e$e r#vlr#e$ *rom #nten$#*y#n2 itsregional as well as its glo)al predominance 2ere the ;nited 3tates to

    diminish its infl$ence in the regions where it is c$rrently the strongest power,the other nations wo$ld settle disp$tes as great and lesser powers ha!edone in the past" sometimes thro$gh diplomacy and accommodation )$toften thro$gh confrontation and wars of !arying scope, intensity, anddestr$cti!eness ne no!el aspect of s$ch a m$ltipolar world is that most ofthese powers wo$ld -o$$e$$ n;cler 9e-on$ !That co$ld ma*e wars)etween them less li*ely, or it co$ld simply m'e t"em morect$tro-"#c It is easy )$t also dangero$s to $nderestimate the role the;nited 3tates plays in pro!iding a meas$re of sta)ility in the world e!en as italso disr$pts sta)ility For instance, the ;nited 3tates is the dominant na!alpower e!erywhere, s$ch that other nations cannot compete with it e!en in

    their home waters They either happily or gr$dgingly allow the ;nited 3tatesNa!y to )e the g$arantor of international waterways and trade ro$tes, ofinternational access to mar*ets and raw materials s$ch as oil G!en when the;nited 3tates engages in a war, it is a)le to play its role as g$ardian of thewaterways In a more gen$inely m$ltipolar world, howe!er5 #t 9o;l3 not!Nations wo$ld compete for na!al dominance at least in their own regions andpossi)ly )eyond Conflict )etween nations wo$ld in!ol!e str$ggles on theoceans as well as on land Armed em)argos, of the *ind $sed in 2orld 2ar iand other ma0or conflicts, wo$ld disr$pt trade flows in a way that is nowimpossi)le

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