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Asian Investment Conference, Hong Kong
March 19-20, 2013
Contents
1
Overview
Performance
2013 Outlook
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Indigenous (19%)
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 68 KBD
810 KBD (**)
Source: PTIT
Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 865 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 95 KBD
(**) Not included Inventory
KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
Crude Export 43 KBD
Import (81%)
Crude/ Condensate 855 KBD
Refined Products 960 KBD*
Domestic
Crude/ Condensate 173 KBD
Supply Production Sales
Export
249 KBD
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan - Dec 2012
923 KBD
216 KBD
Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,087 KBD
PTT’s Associated Refineries : 910 KBD
(TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
Other Refineries : 177 KBD (ESSO)
Refined Products 206 KBD
2
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
LNG
14%
Myanmar
86%
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Dec 2012
Indigenous (79%) 3,591 MMSCFD
Power (59%)
Industry (14%)
NGV (6%)
Petrochemical Feedstock
(14%)
Industry Household
Transportation (7%)
Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL
LPG/NGL
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
Pipeline 1,049 MMSCFD
2,541 MMSCFD
Methane 1,583 MMSCFD
Main driver of the Thai economy
Supply Production Sales
958 MMSCFD (21%)
6 GSPs Total Capacity
2,740 MMSCFD
959 MMSCFD
Import (21%) 959 MMSCFD
3
Chevron31%
PTTEP 27%
Others 42%
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
81%
43%
19%
57%
2001 2012
Revenue
Net Income
Affiliate
PTT
702
3,489
IPO
1 As of December 28, 2012 2 As of December 2012
Note: THB/US$ exchange rate of 30.00
Largest company on Thai Stock exchange
Market cap ~US$30bn1
Group companies:18.5%1 of Thai Stock Exchange
market capitalization
Majority owned by Thai government (66%)
51% by Ministry of Finance
15% by Vayupak Fund
Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire
O&G value chain
International exploration and production business with
901 mmboe2 of proved reserves
Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines
and GSPs in Thailand
Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 5 of 6
refineries in the country
Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with
stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants
Leading oil marketing business with 1,352 retail
stations and 38% 2 of market share by volume
International oil trading business having traded 68.4
bn liters in 2012
Coal business assets in Indonesia,
Madagascar, and Brunei
PTT is Thailand’s Largest Energy Company
PTT Public Limited Company (“PTT”) Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO
(MMUSD)
12,553
93,128
International and local recognition
Award in 2012
Best CEO
Best CFO
Best Managed Company
Best Corporate Governance
Best Investor Relations
Best CSR
Best Commitment to Strong
Dividend Policy
SET Awards
Top Corporate
Governance Report
Award 2010 & 2011
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility Awards
2011
95th Fortune Global 500 in
2012
128th in 2011
155th in 2010
118th in 2009
8th Top Asia overall
Performance of 2011
3rd Top Asia Integrated
Oil & Gas of 2011
Asia Talent Management
10th Asia Business
Leaders Award 2011
Dow Jones Sustainability
Index
Listed in September 2012
Listed in January 2012
4
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level
Thai Ministry of Finance
51%
Vayupak Fund1 15%
Public 34%
Kingdom of Thailand – FC
Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – LC Baa1 BBB+ A- A
Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange
Note: As of September 10, 2012
• Foreign 18%
• Thai 16%
1 The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to
any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund’s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares
are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 2 Based on Bloomberg data as of as of December 28, 2012. THB/US$ exchange rate of 31.7775
PTT PTTEP PTTGC TOP IRPC BCP Total Others
Market cap (BNUSD)2 30.8 21.1 10.3 4.5 2.7 1.4 70.4 313.9
% of SET 8.0% 5.5% 2.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 18.5% 81.5%
Moody’s rating Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa1 Baa3 N.A. - -
S&P rating BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- N.A. - -
PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand
5
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Our Major Businesses & Activities
E&P
Gas
PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production
Upst
ream
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
Dow
nst
ream
Petrochemic
al & Refining
PTTGC 48.89% Petrochemical Flagship
TOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex Refinery
BCP 27.22% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations
New
Busi
ness
International PTT Inter 100% Overseas investment arm of PTT :
Coal, New energy and related businesses
• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and
petrochemical products
Inte
rmedia
te
PTT PLC
• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline
• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas
• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
6
Business Areas Activities Company PTT’s holding (%)
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
PTT Aspiration Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration
“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”
7
Strong
TOP Quartile ROIC
Listed in DJSI since 2011
Long
Ranked Fortune 95th
Big
Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
(111) (147)
1,594 1,508
1,019 1,206
592 627
448 295
2011 2012
Net Income Performance: 2012 vs 2011
8
3,489
• NG sales vol. increase 9% • Avg. GSP sales vol. increase 11% • Oil vol. increase 6% • Oil margin increase 15% • NGV loss increase 73% • Avg. NG gas cost increase 22%
• Sales vol. increase 8% • Soften spread margin
• Avg. selling price increase 17% • Sales vol. increase 4% Impairment on Montara assets 204 MMUSD
PTT
Others
Refinery
PTTEP
Petrochem
Unit : MMUSD
3,542
2%
* Including Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates = 19 MMUSD
Impairment on EMG 3,972 MMTHB (132 MMUSD)
• Crude intake increase 1% • Avg. GIM decrease 32%, mainly from stock loss
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Contents
9
Overview
Performance
2013 Outlook
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
26%
Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)
Product Prices Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
7.68 8.03 6.00 7.59
99.35 101.81 102.23 103.27
64.00 66.38 55.49
64.86
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
Liquid (USD/BBL)
Gas (USD/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
558
1,468
Unit: MMUSD
194 194 187 183
99 100 78 93
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
294
Liquid
Gas
Unit: KBOED
1%
292
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
10
QoQ
• Sales volume increased from Bongkot South’s full production and ramp up in S1 and Vietnam 16-1
• Net income decreased mainly due to Montara’s impairment in Q4/12 (95MMUSD)
YoY
• Net income increased by 26% mainly due to higher selling price and sales volume, despite a crease production of Arthit North since Nov 1, 2011
449
17%
5%
265 276
1,846
27%
1%
20%
4%
2%
4%
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Unit: KBOED
Reserves Replacement Ratio * 0.91
Reserve Life Index (year) ** 8
Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEP
Target Sales Volume Reserves and Resources
11
2015 2012 2013 2014 2016
Thailand
South East Asia
Australia Middle East & Africa
North America
2017
Montara Zawtika
Algeria
433a &416b
KKD
Leismer
Expansion
Cornerc
13%
10%
276
310
340 335 325
339
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
56% 50% 27% 44%
50%
73%
P1 P1+P2 P1+P2+2C
901
1,786
3,986
77% 65%
50% 23%
35%
50%
P1 P1+P2 P1+P2+2C
901
1,786
3,986
Unit: MMBOE
International
Domestic
Liquid
Gas
*Reserves Replacement Ratio : 5-Yr Additional Proved Reserves / 5-Yr Production Volume **Reserves Life Index (Year) : Proved Reserves / Production Volume
Note : P1 = Proved, P2 = Probable, 2C = Contingent
1,356 1,328
1,000 922
453 427
1,029 958
619 623
289 279
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas
NG Sales Volume
NG Customer Profile
2011
2012
2010 3,802
4,055 4,152 4,148
4,145
4,330 4,249
3,919
4,284
4,507 4,611
4,746
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Unit: MMSCFD
EGAT (29%)
IPP (20%)
SPP (10%)
GSP (21%)
Industry (14%)
NGV (6%)
Unit: MMSCFD
4,161 4,746 4,611
12
AVG.
4,040
4,161
4,537
9%
4,537
3%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
GSP - Reference Product Prices
GSP Sales Volume
PP
HDPE
Naphtha
Unit : USD/Ton
333 333 333 333
835 863 853 863
1,343 1,393 1,372 1,380
1,443 1,462 1,585 1,445
675 640 657 688
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
Domestic LPG
Propane (11%)
NGL (11%)
Ethane (33%)
LPG (45%)
Unit : KTon
768
2,906
188
727
581
2,109
211
726
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
1,667 1,748
5,820
5%
FO 3.5%
6,468
11%
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Key Activities
Gas Business Performance
13
QoQ
• NG volume increased from 4,611 mmcfd to 4,746 mmcfd mainly from IPP
• EBITDA decreased due to more loss in NGV
• Industry margin squeezed due to soften fuel oil prices and increased NG feed cost
YoY
• NG volume increased from 4,161 mmcfd to 4,537 mmcfd mainly from EGAT and industry
• EBITDA decreased due to an increase in NG feed cost, more loss in NGV and lower margin from GSP as capped LPG domestic sales
Gas BU EBITDA
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
402
2,073
309
23%
16%
Others (9%)
TM (42%)
S&M (16%)
GSP (33%)
1,742
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
13
YoY
• Sales volume increased by 13%, despite feed cost
sharply increased
• No Government subsidy, while special discount
given to public transportation customers
• Control retail price of NGV remains
NGV EBIT
-352
-175 -168
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
73%
-610
4%
Vol. MMCFD 283 289 246 279
Retail price ฿/kg
10.50 10.50 8.50 10.50
Subsidy/Discount
- - 2.00 (2.00)* for public transportation
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Unit: MMUSD Unit: MMUSD
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pipeline Capacity
(MMSCFD)
GSP Capacity
(MTA)
6.7 6.7
6,980
6.7
6,980
6.7
New Supply
PTTEP (Bongkot
South)
PTTEP (M9)
6.7
6,980
6.7
Gas Business Roadmap
14
Unit : MMSCFD
Power - EGAT
- IPP
- SPP
GSP
Industry NGV
59%
21%
14%
7%
6%
19%
17%
57%
6,980 4,380 5,580
Offshore Compressor
4th Onshore
LNG Phase#2
5%
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
14 19 42 61 83 87
399 453
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
10%
17%
0.73
0.84
Q3/12 Q4/12
15%
0.75
0.86
2011 2012
5,665
5,840
21,807 23,035
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
3%
Oil Business Performance : PTT
Contribution Margin* Oil BU - EBITDA
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : THB/Liter
Unit : MM Liter
* Excluded non–oil business
15
QoQ • Sales volume increased mainly from high seasonal
demand in Q4 • EBITDA increased due to higher sales volume and better
aviation fuel and diesel margins YoY • Record high of sales volume and margins as a resumption
from the great flood • EBITDA increased due to higher sales volume and better
margin of diesel and aviation fuel • Income from non-oil business surged
Oil
Non-Oil
97 106
441
515
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
15%
6%
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Unit: MMUSD
Oil Business Development
PTT Innovation Growing PTT brand internationally
16
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Smart Fuel-up Technology
PTT life Station
The Crystal PTT
PTT Blue Society: PTT Blue Card
Regional Top Brand in ASEAN
Café Amazon
10th year anniversary
No.1 Brand in
Marketeer Magazine
Continue Growing Non-Oil Business
Introduced
“The Amazon’s
Embrace” Branch expansion
Domestic and International
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
18 48
200
143
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
29%
168%
0.03
0.08
0.10
0.06
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
166%
17,591 18,516
59,145 68,342
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
5%
International Trading Business Performance : PTT
Contribution Margin* Trading BU - EBITDA*
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit :THB/Liter
Unit : MM Liter
* PTT only : Adjusted effect of FX
17
QoQ • Sales volume increased mainly from crude oil sold to
refineries and Naphtha trading • Higher margin of imported crude oil and condensate YoY • Sales volume rose from crude oil and refined products from
the out-out trading • Margin dropped due mainly from squeezed condensate
margin in relation to price structure
16%
40%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Unit: MMUSD
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
International Trading Business: Roadmap
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
BKK Singapore Dubai Guangzhou Jakarta Korea London
USA
Genève
Shanghai Japan
India
Australia S.Africa
18
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
84%
91% 89% 90%
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
106 108
106 109
GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)
Total Intake Key Activities
Refining Business Performance
657
Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss
Unit : KBD
BCP IRPC
SPRC
TOP
BCP
SPRC
TOP
Aggregated Util.
19
QoQ • MKT GRM decreased mainly from middle distillate spreads
from resumptions of refineries after turnaround • Accounting GRM plummeted from stock loss • BZ & PX spread margin increased from the picking up
demand from US and China
YoY • Lower performance from the decrease in accounting GRM
due to stock loss in 2012 amid concerns on European debt crisis and global economic recovery
IRPC
Unit : USD/BBL
A/C GRM
A/C GIM
Mkt GRM
32% 37%
Dubai
706 689 698
Stock Gain 3.01 1.76
/Loss -1.47 -0.29
10.80
6.12 9.40
6.41
6.33
5.23 4.54
4.55
9.37
4.21
6.07
4.43
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
8% 1%
78%
43%
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
597 678
134
1,076
Unit: MMUSD
PXMax • Upgrading PX 38 KTA & BZ 82 KTA • COD: Sep 2012
Solvent Expansion (SAKC) • Increase capacity from 76 to 180 KTA • Expected COD: 2014
Phoenix update: PRP Project – Propylene Booster • Propylene 100 KTA expansion • COD: Oct 2012 From Licensee to Licensor • IRPC step up to become the Licensor of Green ABS
technology
CDU no.3 Fire Incident on July 4, 2012 • Resume normal operation in Q4/12 Solar Power Plant Phase II (Installed 50 MW) • 25MW: Located in Bamnet Narong Chaiyaphum • COD: Q1/13 • 25MW : Located at Bang Pa Han, Ayudhaya • COD: Q1/13
Refinery Project Update
20
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
421 438 435 427
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
507 609 603
550
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
Petrochemical Business Performance
Spread Margins Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : USD/Ton
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
1,241
PTT Phenol PTTGC
1%
HMC Polymers
2%
373 487
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
94% 90% 87% 89%
Unit : KTon
PTTGC
HMC Polymers
PTT Phenol
860 824
3,155
21
QoQ • Weaker performance due to lower utilization rate and stock
loss from PTTGC’s refinery unit, despite better spread margins
YoY • Sales volume increased from higher utilization rates in 2012,
from resumption of demand from the flood in 2011, despite commercial operations in several new expansion in 2011;
• PTTGC’s LDPE 300 KTA in Feb 2011 • PTT Phenol’s Bis-Phenol A 150 KTA in Q2/11 • HMC Polymers’s PDH 310 KTA in Feb 2011
• Spread margin decreased from lower demand due to concerns on global economic recession
Aggregated Util.
HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha
8%
1,257
2,918
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
4% 20% 9%
23%
4%
Others
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Unit: MMUSD
Debottleneck - PTTPE Cracker & Polymer Plants • Under study plant configurations • Expecting additional capacity of 15-20% Debottlenecking - PX capacity • Increases ARO II capacity
from 655 to 770 KTA • Expected COD: Q3/15 C4 Value Enhancement • Export mixed C4 to maximize value • Expected COD: Q1/14
Myriant • Build a semi-commercial plant • Expected COD: 2H/13
MEG expansion • 95 KTA expansion started commercial after the resolve of Map
Ta Phut court case • COD: Q4/12
PTT Asahi Chemical • Start commercial operation of PTTAC
• AN 200 KTA • MMA 70 KTA • AMS 160 KTA
• COD: Q1/13
Petrochemical Project Update
22
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
56.3
13.5*
190.3
108.2*
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (93.63%)
Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MMUSD
84 78
93 87
51 53 55 54
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
Unit : USD/Ton
Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012
3,249
Unit : KTon
2,861 Jembayan
Sebuku
23
QoQ • Global coal price soften on weaken demand • Sales volume decreased from lower production from
Sebuku mine YoY • Sales volume increased from Sebuku’s Northern
Lease starting June 2012, despite heavy rainfall and 2 new pit development in Jembayan in 1H/12
• Performance dropped due to the decreased average selling price despite the increase in sales volume
10,726 4%
43%
76%
Selling price
Cash Costs
7%
4%
10,830
7%
1%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
0.2%
*unaudited
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (30.10%)
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
PTTUT + IPT = Global Power Synergy Company “GPSC”
Capacity 1,357 MW (electricity 1,038 MW and steam 319 MW)
PTT is to streamline PTT Group Power Business
24
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
25
Myanmar
Vietnam
Indonesia
Philippines
Laos
Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (30.10%)
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Oversea Opportunities
• Invest in hydro power plant • Send power back to Thai’s Grid
• Invest in coal-fired power plant • Synergy with PTTI’s coal business to import coal from Indonesia
• Invest in hydro and coal-fired power plant in order to transmit power back to Thailand • Invest in gas-fired power plant to sell electricity domestically
• Invest in gas- or coal-fired power plant • PTT Group may try power pool system in
Philippines
• Invest in coal-fired power plant • Synergy with PTTI’s coal business
for fuel supply
25
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Net Income
Unit : MMUSD
106
109
80,938 93,128
2011 2012
7,046
7,595
2011 2012
3,542 3,489
2011 2012 37.24 36.64
PTT Consolidated Performance: 2012
26
Dubai (USD/BBL)
EBITDA
Net Income
EPS (THB/Share)
Revenue
2012
15%
8%
2%
73%
16%
7% 4%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others PTTEP
67%
23%
5% 5% PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
43%
35%
18%
8% -4%
PTT
PetChem
Others
PTTEP
Refining
Revenue
EBITDA
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
20,045
21,771
13,980
16,868
8,468
10,961 4,236
4,777
21,457
24,389
13,077
14,579
12,194
15,409
12.1 12.3
0.4 0.4
1.3 1.4
11 1
Other Liabilities
PP&E
Others Non-
current Assets
Other Current Assets L/T
Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)
Total Equity
Unit: MMUSD
Cash & S/T
Invest
Increased assets :
• 4th Onshore pipeline
• Offshore compressor
• PTTEP Australasia
• Myanmar Zawtika
• Bongkot
Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0
Net Debt/Equity < 1.0
ICR
Strong Financial Position
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level
− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
31 Dec11 31 Dec 12
48,728
54,377
16%
Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured
27
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
0.26 0.29
0.45
0.75
1.021.14 1.16
0.610.70
0.99
1.24 1.22
0.08 0.10 0.130.23
0.31 0.35 0.380.27 0.28 0.34
0.43 0.43
25%
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5%
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dividend Policy & Historical Payments
28
PTT’s minimum payout ratio
PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
EPS
DPS
Dividend payout
UNIT : USD / share
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Contents
29
Overview
Performance
2013 Outlook
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
30
Economic Outlook : Challenges ahead
• Gradual economic growth but Fiscal Cliff concern weight down • Fiscal risk is not over even though the debt ceiling battle has been suspended
• Eurozone economy remains weak but expected to stop shrinking as financial
conditions improve • No more rate cut expected from ECB
• UK’s credit rating was downgraded
• Recent indicators support a strong economic recovery • 2013 economic reforms are being expedited and likely to support the economy
going forward
• Maintain the policy rate • Inflationary pressure • Energy policy • Expected Thailand GDP growth in 2013 around 4.5-5.5%
30
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
109.8
116.2
122.5
117.3
107.3
94.4
99.2
108.6 111.2
106.3 107.3 106.3 107.6 111.73
109.80 108.23 106.35 106.08
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Dubai PRISM (PTT Group)
Market Outlook : Crude Oil
31 Source: PRISM (PTT Group) Estimated (18.02.2013)
The world oil demand growth is forecasted to grow by 1.0 MMBPD to reach 90.8 MMBPD in 2013
North Korea conducted its third test of a nuclear device
Positive economic sentiments from major regions
Prolonged geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Dubai crude oil price in 2013 is expected to be around 100-110 USD/BBL
Forecast Monthly Avg. Dubai Crude Oil
EU remained bearish
Moody’s cut UK’s perfect rating from AAA to Aa1
Italian election may result in a hung parliament
Refineries are going to a maintenance schedule together with supply rising from Non-OPEC
China started up nuclear power generator (1,080 MW)
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Market Outlook : GRM
Refineries turnaround season in 1H/2013
China economic support the world growth
Net capacity added in 2013 around 640KBD
Prolong European debt crisis
32 Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated (25.02.2013)
Singapore GRM in 2013 is estimated to around 6-7 USD/BBL
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Forecast
GO
Mogas
FO
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Y2013
PP
HDPE
Naphtha
• HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 480-580 USD/TON
• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 510-610 USD/TON
• Bz-Naphtha forecasted to be around 320-420 USD/TON
• PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 600-700 USD/TON
Market Outlook : Petrochemical
Olefins prices and buying sentiment tend to increase after Chinese new year holidays
PX market is bullish supported by PTA
Schedule PX plant turnaround in Asia
33
Unit :USD/ton
Source: PRISM Estimated
Olefins Aromatics
Olefins and Aromatics spreads slightly improve
Additional capacity of both Olefins and Aromatics S/U across Asian region
Uncertain economic conditions resulting in the volatility of BZ and PX derivative demand
Spread
Highlights Performance 2013 Outlook
Spread
Naphtha
PX
BZ
Y2013
4th pipeline & extension
LPG import facility
• SAR tender offer
• M&A in coal, FLNG, power
Gas 30%
Oil & Trading 14%
HO, Others 3%
Opportunistic
43%
Coal 1%Power 3%
LNG 6%
848 984 1,014 619
241
239 275
565
419
215
2,072 1,127
1,154
844
1,200 136 135
62
38
27
Investment in Joint Venture and its subsidiaries
Head Office and others
Oil and International Trading
Natural Gas
Unit: MMUSD
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 366bn ($12bn) during 2013-2017
CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years
By Business Unit
JV &
Investment in
Subsidiaries
53%
34
2,521
1,920 1,683
3,295
2,795
Note: THB/US$ exchange rate of 30.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Highlights Performance 2013 Outlook
PTTEP 41%
Gas 10%
Others opportunistic
15%
P&R** 24%
R & D 2%
PTT Group CAPEX 2013 – 2017 ~ USD 37 Bn
• Thailand 56% • SE Asia 21% • North America 16% • Australasia 4% • ME & Africa 3%
• Onshore Pipeline • LNG Terminal • NGV Stations • Offshore Spur Lines
• Coal • FLNG • Power
• Biochemical • Specialty
* Excluded M&A of Affiliates, ** PTTGC excludes new initiatives
LPG facilities
35
Overview Performance 2013 Outlook
Thank you PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department
Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information
contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial
performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events
will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those
projected.
Disclaimer
Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information
In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and
Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and
Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company’s best estimates of its
reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its proved reserves, no
independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this
presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This presentation may contain
the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”, and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts
similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data,
can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and
under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations.
Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data
suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable.
Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The
reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological.
37
PTT Group Performance : 2012
% share
Unit : MMUSD 2011 2012 YoY 2011 2012 YoY
PTT Net operating Income 1,575 1,508 -4% 1,575 1,508 -4%
E&P - PTTEP 1,492 1,911 28% 65.29% 1,019 1,206 18%
Petro. Business 1,241 1,257 1% 592 627 6%
- PTTGC* 1,001 1,133 13% 48.89% 482 560 16%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC
/ PTTME/PTTTANK239 124 -48% 40-48% 110 67 -39%
Refining 1,076 678 -37% 448 295 -34%
- TOP 495 411 -17% 49.10% 250 213 -15%
- IRPC 131 -32 -124% 38.51% 48 -13 -127%
- SPRC 263 157 -40% 36.00% 99 55 -44%
- BCP 187 142 -24% 27.22% 51 40 -22%
Inter- PTTI group
(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-199 -200 -1% 100% -199 -200 -1%
Gas &
Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 112 144 28% 20-100% 31 50 61%
Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/
/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo62 9 -85% 33-100% 57 3 -95%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 3,784 3,798 37% 1,948 1,981 2%
Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates19 0 n.m. 19 0 n.m.
PTT Conso. Net Income 5,378 5,306 -1% 3,542 3,489 -2%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
*PTTGC performance from Pro-Forma Statement
Net Income
Unit : MMUSD
106
108
22,868 24,430
Q3/12 Q4/12
1,877 1,777
Q3/12 Q4/12
1,202 757
Q3/12 Q4/12 12.62 7.95
PTT Consolidated Performance: Q4/2012
38
Dubai (USD/BBL)
EBITDA
Net Income
EPS (THB/Share)
Revenue
Q4/2012
7%
37%
72%
17%
7% 4%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others PTTEP
75%
17%
3% 5% PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
PetChem
35%
38%
25%
10% -8%
PTT
Others
PTTEP
Refining
Revenue
EBITDA
5%
39
PTT Group Performance : Q4/2012
% share
Unit : MMUSD Q4/11 Q4/12 YoY Q4/11 Q4/12 YoY
PTT Net operating Income 254 262 3% 253 261 3%
E&P - PTTEP 505 459 -9% 65.29% 348 284 -18%
Petro. Business 155 373 142% 81 192 138%
- PTTGC 135 346 156% 48.89% 70 176 n.m.
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC
/ PTTME/PTTTANK20 27 34% 40-48% 11 16 41%
Refining 69 134 94% 35 77 121%
- TOP 62 64 3% 49.10% 35 53 49%
- IRPC -51 1 101% 38.51% -20 0 100%
- SPRC 39 31 -20% 36.00% 15 15 2%
- BCP 19 38 104% 27.22% 4 10 n.m.
Inter- PTTI group
(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-164 -50 69% 100% -164 -47 71%
Gas &
Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 63 85 35% 20-100% -4 12 n.m.
Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/
/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo-3 -74 n.m. 33-100% 37 -22 n.m.
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 625 927 37% 333 496 49%
PTT Conso. Net Income 879 1,189 35% 586 757 29%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
40
Free Cash flow
568 -105
Investing
2011 -5,342
2012 -6,019
CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset)
-3,748 -3,888
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -2,566 -2,883
Dividend/Interest Received 521 442
Others 451 310
Operating
2011 5,910
2012 5,914
Net Income 3,542 3,489
Changes in assets & liabilities -15 -838
Income Tax -1,402 -1,359
Non-Cash Adjustment 3,744 4,539
Interest-net 41 83
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
3,871 4,564
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
4,527 3,871
Cash In/(Out)
-656 694
Adjustment
294 -125
40
Financing -1,518 924
Repayment Loans -1,209 -4,081
Interest paid -618 -675
Dividend paid -1,370 -1,410
Received from share issue 63 1,247
Received from loans/Bonds 1,617 5,843
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for Year 2012 & 2011 Unit : MMUSD
41
Free Cash flow
1,912 -194
Financing -2,246 70
Repayment Loans -1,058 -1,168
Interest paid -421 -406
Dividend paid -1,093 -1,142
Received from share issue 57 0
Received from loans/Bonds 268 2,786
Investing
2011 -509
2012 -2,239
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -828 -682
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -1,097 -2,053
Dividend/Interest Received 1,020 996
Others 396 -500
Operating
2011 2,421
2012 2,045
Net Income 2,448 2,490
Changes in assets & liabilities 142 -113
Income Tax -322 -124
Non-Cash Adjustment 136 -256
Interest - net 17 48
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
1,711 1,588
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
2,044 1,711
Cash In/(Out)
-333 -123
Adjustment
1 1
41
Statements of Cash Flows for Year 2012 & 2011 (PTT Only) Unit : MMUSD
6,5965,694 6,270
8,529 7,654 7,373
2,2772,411
3,336
3,815 5,4007,184
31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 31 Dec 12 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 31 Dec 12
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Debt Portfolio
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMUSD
42
: Cost of debts ~ 4.86 %
: % fixed-rate ~ 94 %
: Avg. debt life ~ 8.84 years
: Cost of debts ~ 4.56 %
: % fixed-rate ~ 85 %
: Avg. debt life ~ 8.11 years
Note : Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
8,873
(26%)
(74%)
(30%)
(70%)
8,105
9,606
(35%)
(65%)
12,344
(31%)
(69%)
13,054
(41%)
(59%)
(49%)
(51%)
14,557 USD
THB
Thailand’s projected energy demand
43
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Commercial Primary Energy Consumption
36%
34%
15%
13%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
Hydro/Import
KBD
25%
39%
17%
4%
14%
Renewable
2%
3,533
3,079
2,649
2,218 1,841
32%
38%
15%
12% 3%
28%
38%
16%
4%
14%
29%
39%
16%
3% 13%
1% Nuclear
Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010 Revised 3 (June 2012)/ PTT analysis as of 1 Nov 2012
Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry
44 Source : PTT
Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2013-2030) : Total ~ 2% : Power ~ 2% : GSP ~ 0% : Industry ~ 3% : NGV ~ 1%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
3 11 13 1 1 1 1 3
Power
GSP
Industry
78%
21%
8%
2,635
14%
16%
15%
59% 63%
14%
NGV6%
6%
6,771MMscfd
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 33.19% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00% PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00016% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
45
Others
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Independent Power (Thailand) Co., Ltd. IPT 20.00% PTT Utility Co., Ltd. PTTUT 40.00% B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. B.Grimm BIP 23.00% Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation NNEG 30.00% Bangpa-in Cogeneration, Ltd BIC 25.00% Others Cost Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.89% PTT Phenol Co., Ltd. PPCL 40.00% PTT Maintenance and Engineering PTTME 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PMBC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%
International Trading Business Group
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%
Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group
Associates Equity PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00% PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%
E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 31 Dec 2012
International Investment
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%
PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%
46
Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan – Dec 2012
Customers1 Sales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +
Power Producers 59%
: EGAT 29%
: IPP 20%
: SPP 10%
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.8 Bt/MMBtu
GSP 21% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Industry 14% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
NGV 6% Capped at 10.5 Baht/Kg
Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
NGL Reference to Naphtha market price
Local Cooking Gas
Export Cooking Gas
Capped at 333 USD/ton
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
1 As at Feb, 2013
Gas Business Generates Stable Returns
47
Sole owner and operator of
entire gas transmission
pipelines in Thailand (3,635
km), a regulated business
Supply & marketing of natural
gas provides fixed margin with
long-term contracts of 25-30
years
6 Gas Separation Plants; Total
production 6.7 MTA; are on
petrochemical market price-
linked profit sharing basis
Highlights Gas transmission pipeline capacity
Phu Hom
Nam Phong
Thailand
Ban I Tong
Ratchaburi
Nakhon Sawan
SBK
NBK
The Luang
Nakhon Ratchasima
Kaong Khoi
Samut Prakan
ESB
Bang Pakong
Khanom
Songkhla
Sadao
Yadana
Yetagun
Chon Buri
Rayong
Wang Noi
Thai-Malaysia
(JDA)
Arthit
Arthit–FPSO Erawan
Pailin Bongkot
South Bongkot
Chevron–Additional
Platong
Tantawan
Benchamas
Natural gas fields
Power plants Gas separation plant
1,2,3,5,6 in Rayong
Gas separation unit 4
in Nakhon Si Thammarat
Existing pipeline
Future pipeline
Andaman Sea
2012 Accolades PTT is widely recognized among business communities both international and local
48
167th in 2012
• 171th in 2011 • 196th in 2010
DJSI Member 2012-2013
95th in 2012 • 128th in 2011 • 155th in 2010
Asian Excellence Recognition Awards 2012/2013 • Asia’s Best CEO • Asia’s Best CFO • Best Investor Relations • Best IR
Website/Promotion • Best Environmental
Responsibility • Best Investor Relations
Companies • Best CSR
Corporate Governance Asia Recognition Awards 2012
• Best CEO 2012 • Best CFO 2012 • Best Managed Company 2012 • Best Corporate Governance
2012 • Best Investor Relations 2012 • Best Corporate Social
Responsibility 2012 • Best Commitment to Strong
Dividend Policy 2012
• Deal of the Year 2012 • Best Investor Relations Issuer 2012
• Best Fully-Integrated Oil and Gas Company, Asia
• Best Sustainable Oil and Gas Company, Asia
Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company
• 6th Overall Performance in Asia/Pacific (8th in 2011)
• Leadership Excellence • Financial Management
Excellence
The Asset’s Platinum Award for All-Round Excellence Investors’ Choice Award
SET Awards 2012 • Best Corporate Social
Responsibility Awards
• 6th Annual Best Financial Institution Awards 2012
• 2nd Annual Corporate Awards 2012 (Thailand)
The Asian Banker Annual Achievement Awards 2012
The Global Green Rankings List 2011
• Outstanding State Enterprise Award 2011-2012
• Best State Enterprise of the Year, Best of the Best