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OPINION AUGUST 2, 2010

The Soak-the-Rich Catch-22

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By ARTHUR L AFFER

T ax re d uctio n th us se t s off a process that can bring ga ins for everyone, gains won by marshalling resources t hat would ot herwise stand idleworkers without jobs and farm and f actory capa city without markets. Ye t many taxpayers seemed prepared to deny the nation thefruits of tax reduction because they question the financial soundness of reducing taxes whent he f ederal budget is already in deficit. Let me make clear why, in today's economy, fiscal

prudence and responsibility call for tax reduction even if it temporarily enlarged the federal deficitwhy reducing taxes is the best way open to us to increase revenues.

President John F. Kennedy, Econ omic Rep ort of th e Presi dent,

January 1963

If only more o f toda y's leade rs thou ght like J FK. S adly, in the debate over whether to extendthe 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, and if so whether the cuts should be extended to those peoplewho are in the highest tax bracket, there is a false presumption that higher tax rates on thetop 1% of income earners will raise tax revenues.

Anyone who is familiar with the historical data available from the IRS knows full well thatraising income tax rates on the top 1% of income earners will most likely reduce the direct taxreceipts from the now higher taxed incomeeven without considering the secondary taxrevenue effects, all of which will be negative. And who on Earth wants higher tax rates onanyone if it means larger deficits?

Since 1978, the U.S. has cut the highestmarginal earned-income tax rate to 35%from 50%, the highest capital gains tax rate

to 15% from about 50%, and the highestdividend tax rate to 15% from 70%.President Clinton cut the highest marginaltax rate on long-term capital gains from thesale of owner-occupied homes to 0% for almost all home owners. We've also cut justabout every other income tax rate as well.

During this era of ubiquitous tax cuts,income tax receipts from the top 1% of income earners rose to 3.3% of GDP in

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Columnist Kimberley Strassel discusses Nancy Pelosi'splan to have a tax vote before November, andOpinionJournal.com assistant editor Allysia Finleyreports on the battle to reform state spending.

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2007 (the latest year for which we have data) from 1.5% of GDP in 1978. Income tax receiptsfrom the bottom 95% of income earners fell to 3.2% of GDP from 5.4% of GDP over the sametime period. (See the nearby chart).

Theseresultsshouldn'tbesurprising.The highest

tax bracketincomeearners,whencomparedwith thosepeople inlower taxbrackets,are far

more capable of changing their taxable income by hiring lawyers, accountants, deferredincome specialists and the like. They can change the location, timing, composition and volumeof income to avoid taxation.

Just look at Sen. John Kerry's recent yacht brouhaha if you don't believe me. He bought andhoused his $7 million yacht in Rhode Island instead of Massachusetts, where he is the senior senator and champion of higher taxes on the rich, avoiding some $437,500 in state sales taxand an annual excise tax of about $70,000.

Howard Metzenbaum, the former Ohio senator and liberal supporter of the death tax, chose tochange his official residence to Florida just before he died because Florida does not have anestate tax while Ohio does. Goodness knows what creative devices former House Ways andMeans Chairman Charlie Rangel has used to avoid paying taxes.

In short, the highest bracket income earnerseven left-wing liberalsare far moresensitive to tax rates than are other incomeearners.

When President Kennedy cut the highestincome tax rate to 70% from 91%, revenuesalso rose. Income tax receipts from the top1% of income earners rose to 1.9% of GDPin 1968 from 1.3% in 1960. Even whenPresidents Harding and Coolidge cut taxrates in the 1920s, tax receipts from the richrose. Between 1921 and 1928 the highest

marginal personal income tax rate was lowered to 25% from 73% and tax receipts from thetop 1% of income earners went to 1.1% of GDP from 0.6% of GDP.

Or perhaps you'd like to see how the rich paid less in taxes under the bipartisan tax rateincreases of Presidents Johnson, Nixon, Ford and Carter? Between 1968 and 1981 the top1% of income earners reduced their total income tax payments to 1.5% of GDP from 1.9% of

GDP.

And then there's the Hoover/Roosevelt Great Depression. The Great Depression wasprecipitated by President Hoover in early 1930, when he signed into law the largest ever U.S.tax increase on traded productsthe Smoot-Hawley Tariff. President Hoover then thought itwould be clever to try to tax America into prosperity. Using many of the same arguments thatBarack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are using today, President Hoover raised thehighest personal income tax rate to 63% from 24% on Jan. 1, 1932. He raised many other taxes as well.

President Roosevelt then debauched the dollar with the 1933 Bank Holiday Act and his soak-

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The stern of John Kerry's yacht
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the-rich tax increase on Jan. 1, 1936. He raised the highest personal income tax rate to 79%from 63% along with a whole host of other corporate and personal tax rates as well. The U.S.economy went into a double dip depression, with unemployment rates rising again to 20% in1938. Over the course of the Great Depression, the government raised the top marginalpersonal income tax rate to 83% from 24%.

Is it any wonder that the Great Depression was as long and deep as it was? Whoever heardof a country taxing itself into prosperity? Not only did taxes as a share of GDP fall, but GDPfell as well. It was a double whammy. Tax receipts from the top 1% of income earners stayedflat as a share of GDP, going to 1% in 1940 from 1.1% in 1928, but at what cost?

We all know that there are lots of factors influencing tax revenues from the rich, but thenumber one factor has to be the statutory tax rates government tells the rich they have to pay.Not only do the direct income tax consequences of higher tax rates on those in the highestbrackets lead to higher deficits, the indirect effects magnify the tax revenue losses many fold.

As a result of higher tax rates on those people in the highest tax brackets, there will be lessemployment, output, sales, profits and capital gainsall leading to lower payrolls and lower total tax receipts. There will also be higher unemployment, poverty and lower incomes, all of which require more government spending. It's a Catch-22.

Higher tax rates on the rich create the very poverty and unemployment that is used to justifytheir presence. It is a vicious cycle that well-trained economists should know to avoid.

Mr. Laffer is the chairman of Laffer Associates and co-author of "Return to Prosperity: How

America Can Regain Its Economic Superpower Status" (Threshold, 2010).

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Beware the Balanced Budget Deal7/29/2010
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Arthur Laffer - the Soak-The-Rich Catch-22 - WSJ