Analyst Meeting 1Q2012 May 17,2012 ริษัท บางจากปิโตรเลียม ...bcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20120521... · 25 Q1 ’11 ... Rebranding

บริษัท บางจากปิโตรเลียม จ ากัด (มหาชน)

The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited

Analyst Meeting 1Q2012 May 17,2012

www.bangchak.co.th 2

1Q2012 Highlights

Financial Performance

2Q2012 Overview

World Oil Situation

Agenda

Oil Market Outlook : Key Factors


+ US • Will slowing jobs picture

spur more Fed stimulus?

+/- France • Socialist François Hollande

presidential election signaled a push back against German-led austerity policies.

- Greece • Uncertainty in the political election increased the risk of

insolvency and a possible exit from the euro zone

• Eye on parliamentary approval next month over 11 billion euro in extra spending cuts for 2013-2014 for more aid

- Spain • Economic slow down, while unemployment

rate still high

• Analyst expected Spain might need bailout in the next six month

+/- Iran nuclear • Eye on another round of talks between Iran and six world

powers in May 23 at Baghdad

• Start of EU sanction on Iran in July 1

• IEA estimate Iranian crude production would fall by 0.8-1.0 MBD to 2.6-2.8 MBD by mid summer, unless alternative buyers can be found

- Saudi Arabia [market is welled supply]

• 100 $/BBL is comfortable price for crude oil

• The kingdom is now pumping around 10 MBD and is storing 80 MB of crude to meet any sudden disruption in supply

+ Japan • No nuclear power plant online

since May 2012

• IEA expected the incremental demand of fuel would be 300 KBD in 2012

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130Dubai

WTI

Brent

• Unrest situations in MENA??? • Oil demand from Japan??? • Hurricane in 3Q2012?? •Winter time around year-end??

• Unclear European economic situation

• Political shifts in Greece and France

• Decrease demand due to seasonal effect

$/BBL

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130Dubai

WTI

Brent

2H2012: • Diesel 29-32 Baht/litre

(based on current tax and oil fund structure)

• Gasohol91 35-37 Baht/litre

Global Oil Market : Price Movement Forecasted DUBAI Price 2H2012: 105-112 $/BBL

Asian Oil Market : Cracks Movement


$/BBL

-15

-5

5

15

25

Q1’11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1’12 Q2 Q3 Q4

Asian refinery margins will continue to be supported by relatively firm middle distillate and a stronger fuel oil crack

11.0

19.0

15.0 16.0

-1.0 -3.0

UNL95-DB GO-DB

FO-DB

Re : FO based on new conversion (6.35)

World Refinery Capacity


A comparison of different sources of refinery capacity data

Sources

FACTS Global Energy

(FGE) – focus on Asia and M.E. –

JBC Energy

PIRA

IEA

Total refinery

capacity in 2011 (MBD)

N/A

91.80

92.05

92.80

Global CDU

capacity

addition in 2012 (MBD)

+ 1.80

+ 1.20

+ 2.57

+ 2.10

Asia CDU

capacity

addition in 2012 (MBD)

+ 1.50

+ 1.05

+ 2.00

+ 1.25

Global CDU Additional Capacity


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Latin America

FSU

Africa

Middle East

China

East Asia

South Asia

Japan

ANZ

East Europe

MED

NWE

Canada

U.S.

- Former Soviet Union

- Australia/New Zealand

- Mediterranean

- Northwest Europe

MBD

USA..

Source: PIRA

World Refining Capacity – Global Oil Demand


MBD

+2.57

+2.25

+2.08

+1.30

+1.11

Source : PIRA, Mar 2012 IEA, Apr 2012

Agenda


1Q2012 Highlights


2Q2012 Overview

Oil Market Situation

Operating Result


Consolidated

35,759

47,610 40,172

2,270 3,714

1,108

1,424 2,438

561

1.14 1.77

0.42

1Q2011 1Q2012 4Q2011

Sales (MB)

EBITDA (MB)

Net Profit (MB)

EPS (Baht/Share)

33.1%

63.6%

71.2%

Refinery & Marketing Performance


Unit : USD/bbl

Total GRM 12.53 13.77

15.18 16.59 Accounting GIM

1Q2012 1Q2011

6.61

9.32

9.62 6.68 5.65

5.51 5.36

0.71

-1.36

0.49 0.25

2.82 2.65 2.71

4Q2011

Base GRM

GRM Hedging

Inventory G/L

MKM

Refinery Performance 1Q2012


1Q

20

12

Crude Run

MOGAS

JET

HSD

FO

Product Yield

LPG

Average Crude Run :101 KBD

Euro IV premium added up GRM

High premium FO exported to Japan

In 1Q2012…Strong GRM

Crude Selection

Local 46% FE

39%

Other 15%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1Q2011 FY2011 1Q2012

62.7

85.7

101

KBD

13%

54%

12%

20%

1%

1Q201

FO HSD JET MOGAS LPG

To be High-Innovative refinery

Phase 1 1. New Innovation CCR : 12 KBD Continuous

Catalytic Reforming Unit

2. Co-Gen : 15 MW Co-Generation Power Plant

Objective

Refinery Performance 1Q2012


Under detail design stage, Project Cost ≈ 37 Million USD

To decrease emission of Sulphur Dioxide from the Sulphur Recovery Unit.

Benefits Environmental Improvement (Reduction of SO2)

BOI Tax Privilege

Objective

Tail Gas Project

Feasibility Study, technology and licensor selection stage 3E Project: Phase 1

Benefits Add up GRM ≈ 1-2 $/bbl

To improve Efficiency, Energy, and Environment

Marketing Performance 1Q2012


194 223

127

184

320

407

1Q2011 1Q2012

Industrial

Retail

27.2%

Average Sales Volume through Marketing Channels

Unit : M.Liter/Mth

44.9%

14.9%

19 21

152 221

81

93 68

70 0.3

2

1Q2011 1Q2012

HSD

MOGAS

JET

FO

Other

14.8%

45.4%

All Product

3rd

45.8%

15.9%

13.7%

12.4%

6.0%6.1%

PTT ESSO BCP SHELL CALTEX OTH

Other

MOGAS

2nd

45.2%

14.2%

15.8%

12.7%

6.5%5.6%

PTT ESSO BCP SHELL CALTEX OTH

Other

as of Feb 2012

Sales volume increased by 27% YoY

E20 & E85 sales volume increased by 38.5% YoY

Rebranding service station: 24 stations

Launched Diesel Club Card

Continuous Growth

Market share of sales volume through service stations

Sales Vol. by product

30.7 32.5

19.2 16.0

9.4 12.2

0.2 1.1 59.5 61.7

1Q2011 1Q2012

E 85

E20

GSH95

GSH91

Total

Marketing Performance 1Q2012


Gasohol Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)

152.3

221.2

1Q2011 1Q2012

Diesel Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)

9.6

13.3

1Q2011 1Q2012

E20&E85 Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)

45.2%

38.5%

3.7%

Bangchak Green Station


BBF Performance 1Q2012

Unit: M.Baht 1Q2011 1Q2012

Sales 683 1,307 +624

EBIT 80 49 -31

NPAT 71 41 -30


B5 Biodiesel Mandate

Sales increased by 91.36% from higher

demand in B100

Gross profit per liter of B100 decreased

from Baht 8.75 to Baht 2.60 because there was huge stock gain in 1Q2011

In 1Q2012…

Agenda


1Q2012 Highlights


2Q2012 Overview

World Oil Situation

Profit & Loss (Consolidated)

1Q2012 1Q2011 Δ YoY (%)

47,610 35,759 33.14%

3,714 2,270 63.61%

(558) (438)

236 272

(191) (210)

3,201 1,894

(751) (449)

2,450 1,445 69.55%


4Q2011 Δ QoQ (%)

40,172 18.52%

1,108 235.20%

(587)

(252)

(195)

74

472

546 348.72%

1.77 1.14 55.26% 0.42 321.43%

Unit : M.Baht

Sales Revenue

EBITDA

Depreciation and Amortization

Other FX and Impairment

Financial Cost

Pre-tax Profit

Tax

Net Profit

EPS (Baht/Share)

Refinery BU Performance


1Q2012 1Q2011 4Q2011

M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL

Base GRM 1,913 6.68 1,664 9.62 1,533 5.65

GRM Hedging 140 0.49 (235) (1.36) 67 0.25

Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,534 5.36 954 5.50 192 0.71

Total GRM 3,587 12.53 2,383 13.77 1,792 6.61

Other Income 41 0.14 90 0.52 51 0.19

Operating Expenses (567) (1.98) (583) (3.37) (978) (3.60)

EBITDA 3,060 10.70 1,890 10.92 866 3.19

Adjusted EBITDA 1,526 5.33 936 5.42 674 2.48

Key factors:

Crude Run (KBD) 101.0 62.7 94.6

Exchange rate (฿/$) 31.12 30.68 31.17

DB ($/Bbl) 116.14 100.49 106.46

Company Only

YoY 61.9%

YoY 50.5%

Marketing BU Performance

www.bangchak.co.th 21 www.bangchak.co.th

1Q2012 1Q2011 4Q2011

M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L

Net Retail Margin 546 0.81 423 0.73 529 0.84

Net Industrial Margin 211 0.38 65 0.17 207 0.43

Total MKM 757 0.62 488 0.50 736 0.67

Other Income 193 0.16 225 0.23 165 0.15

Operating Expenses (400) (0.33) (368) (0.38) (608) (0.55)

EBITDA 549 0.45 344 0.36 293 0.26

Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo

o Retail 46.3 223 40.7 194 42.9 209

o Industrial 38.7 187 27.0 129 32.8 160

Total Sale Volume 85.1 410 67.7 323 75.7 369

Company Only

YoY 59.6%

YoY 55.1%

S/T loan decreased from repayment.

Other Current Liability, mainly Trade Account Payable soared because of increase both in oil price and volume.

Net Profit for 1Q2012 increased by 2,377 MB from Dec 31,2011

Financial Position


Unit : M.Baht 31 Mar

2012

31 Dec

2011 Δ

Cash & Equivalents 3,533 4,020 -487

Trade Receivables 8,731 8,072 +659

Inventory and Other

Current Assets 24,777 19,202 +5,575

Property, Plant &

Equipment 26,766 26,959 -193

Other Non-Current Assets 3,381 3,350 +31

Short-term loans from financial

institutions 706 2,551 -1,845

Other Current Liabilities 17,166 11,990 +5,176

Long-Term Debt 15,890 16,030 -140

Other Non-Current Liability 1,096 1,153 -57

Total Liabilities 34,858 31,724 +3,134

Total Equity 32,330 29,879 +2,451

Total Liabilities and Equity 67,188 61,603 +5,585 Total Assets 67,188 61,603 +5,585

31 Mar

2012

31 Dec

2011 Δ

Cash decreased due to an investment in Asset and Short-Term loan repayment.

Trade Receivables increased because of increased in sales mainly from industrial

customers.

Inventory level 5.3 MBBL (increased by 0.9 MBBL from last year).

BBF Performance


1Q2012 Utilization rate increased to 99%

- B5 Government Mandate

- Demand in B100 increased

Gross Profit decreased because there

was a huge stock gain in 1Q2011.

BA

LAN

CE

SH

EET Unit : MB 31 Mar

2012 31 Dec 2011

Cash and cash equivalents 163 96 +67

Inventories 165 207 -42

Total liabilities 946 782 +164

Total Equity 540 499 +41

Total assets 1,486 1,282 +204

Total liabilities and equity 1,486 1,282 +204

Inventory decreased due to lower storage of finished product and raw material.

PR

OFI

T &

LO

SS

Account Payable increased because of increased in Sales Volume and raw material price.

Cash increased due to Sales Volume soared

Unit: MB 1Q2012 1Q2011 ΔYoY %

Sales 1,307 683 +624 91%

Cost of Goods sold (1,252) (559) -693 124%

Gross Profit 55 124 -69 -55%

Other Income/Interest 1 0 0 121%

Operating Expense (7) (45) +38 -85%

EBIT 49 80 -30 -38%

Financial Cost (8) (8) 0 -4%

Tax (1) - (1) N/A

Net Profit 41 71 (31) -43%

Financial Ratio (Consolidated)


PROFITABILITY RATIOS 1Q2012 1Q2011

Net Profit Margin % 5.12 3.98

EBITDA Margin % 7.80 6.25

Return on Equity-ROE % 7.88 5.97

Return on Assets-ROA % 3.79 2.40

LEVERAGE RATIOS

Int. bearing D/E Ratio times 0.51 0.62

Net debt to EBITDA times 3.51 6.41

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

Current Ratio times 2.07 2.15

Quick Ratio times 0.86 1.01

AR Day days 16.69 18.49

DSCR times 10.02 6.50

Current Ratio, time

Int. bearing D/E Ratio, time

VALUATION RATIOS

Book Value per Share Baht 23.36 21.59

Earning per Share Baht 1.77 1.14

1.81 1.78 1.83 2.15 2.07

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.79 0.75

0.86

0.62 0.51

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bond Issue

Objective : General purposes


Issue term 7.0 yrs 10.0 yrs

Issue date April 30,2012

Type Senior and Unsecured Bond

Issue size 2,000 MB. 1,000 MB.

Coupon (p.a.) Fixed: 4.92% Fixed: 5.35%

Maturity date April 30, 2019 April 30,2022

Underwriter Bangkok Bank

Rating A-/TRIS

Bond Holder Institutional investors and high net

worth investors

Quote (ThaiBMA) BCP194A BCP224A

Agenda


1Q2012 Highlights


2Q2012 Overview

World Oil Situation

2Q2012 Overview


Refinery Business 30-Day Turn Around Period: MAY 25 - JUNE 23

Avg. Crude Run : 73 KBD,

After TAM crude run :110 KBD

Expected Base GRM : 6-7 $/bbl

High premium Fuel oil exports to

Japan

High hedging crack spread

Licensor selection for 3E Phase 1:

CCR/COGEN

2Q2012 Overview


Marketing Business Target Sales Volume 1H2012: Growth 15%

Expected Retail Margin: 1.60 Baht/Litre

Rebranding service stations

Expansion of Green stations

Launch 5 pilot projects of Mini BigC : 2 projects in June and

3 projects in July

Project Update: Solar Power Plant


Resumed Operation on April 2, 2012.

Expected COD: July 2012.

9.43 MW

34.2 MW

Phase 1 (Installed 44 MW)

Business Interruption from flooding

Project Cost : 4,200 M.Baht

Location : Bang Pa-In, Ayutthaya

Expected

Operating Revenue in 2012

Project Update: Solar Power Plant



Expected COD: December 2012.

Completed soil test & construction drawing

stage and site preparation

25 MW @ Bam Net Narong, Chaiyaphum

25 MW @ Bang Pa Hun, Ayutthaya

Expected COD: February 2013.

Started land-filled and dike construction for

flood protection system,


PEA has approved for changing the

location and it would be in Eastern and

North Eastern part of Thailand.

Expected COD: At the beginning of

2014.

75 MW

Project Cost: 3,800 M.Baht

@ North Eastern & Eastern Part Project Cost:

5,700 M.Baht

Renewable Energy Learning Center

www.bangchak.co.th

Auditorium & Exhibition BioDome:

Algae oil producing demonstration

Project update: Renewable Business


B100 capacity: 360,000 litre/day

Debottlenecked commissioning : May 2012

•Palm Plantation Learning Center in Rangsit

BBF

Palm Plantation

Project update: Renewable Business


UBE

Capacity 400,000 litre/day

Under Construction:

Expected Commissioning: October 2012

Expected COD: December 2012

Study stage for modified plant: dual feedstock using cassava and molasses.

CAPEX in 2012


CAPEX in 2012 M.Baht

Normal CAPEX Refinery & Marketing

2,000

Refinery Projects Tail Gas & VDU Heater Modification

800

New Business Solar Phase II (Installed 50 MW, Sale 32 MW)

3,800

6,600

Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient,

and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided herein, this document

does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from

sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts

no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses

contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses

may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results;

accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate

representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.

[email protected]

Tel. +662 335 4580, 335 4583

www.bangchak.co.th

click Investor Relations

We BangChak

Thank You

Documents

Analyst Meeting 1Q2012 May 17,2012 ริษัท บางจากปิโตรเลียม ...bcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20120521... · 25 Q1 ’11 ... Rebranding