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Aloha! bis

Tom RowbothamDirector, techno logy

B T

Tom RowbothamDirector, techno logy

B T

Anything but TINA...

O ur bus iness depends on techno logy...

Delphi

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• We have joint-ventures in 7 countriesaddressing $180bn market (80% of market)

• Our Customers doubled to 8m in 1998

• BT revenues are now $2bn p.a.

• Growing at 15% per annum

Why BT cares about Europeanregulation

BT’s Pan-European network 45000 km

200 cities 160Gbit/s

LondonLondon AmsterdamAmsterdam

FrankfurtFrankfurt

ZurichZurich

RotterdamRotterdam

MunichMunich

Dusseldorf Dusseldorf

LyonLyon

KarlsruheKarlsruhe

MilanMilan

ParisParis

AntwerpAntwerp

BrusselsBrussels

LausanneLausanne

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European Regulation

Some of the issues

• Slow start after 1 Jan 1998

• Regulators powers constrained

• Variation from country to country

• Super-regulators - geographical/multi-industry?

European Regulation

Has begun to work

• Average reductions in price 15%-40

• Even small countries have 25 licences

• Larger ones have 250+

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European Regulation - FourCritical Issues

1 Effective Competition

2 Fair Interconnection

3 Infrastructure Competition

4 Non-Discrimination

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

bel fra ger ire ita nl spa swe swi uk

Liberalisation status in Europe

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Regulation - summary

• Still too early to move to competition based law

• Because this assumes a competitive market inplace - not yet true in much of Europe

• Therefore sector specific regulation still needed

• But we should plan sunset conditions

Some key issues

• Copyright

• Access

• Mobile

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Copyright

Should operators and service providersbe responsible for avoiding infringementsof copyright?

Access Unbundling

Should regulation be at wires,bits, or service levels?

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Mobile

Should there be Indirect Access inMobile?

If so which pricing model -Retail Minus or Cost Plus?

Now for a glimpse of the Future

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Possible predictions ten years ago

Internet

Global Alliances

Some things ARE predictableeg Moore’s Law

P ow er d ou b les every 18 m on ths, c ost rem ain s con stantP ow er d ou b les every 18 m on ths, c ost rem ain s con stant

10M10M

T rans istorsT rans istors M ip sM ip s

1M1M

100 K100 K

10K10K

500500

2525

1.01.0

0.10.1

197 5 198 0 198 5 199 5199 040 04

80 80

80 86

80 28 6

80 38 6

80 48 6

P e ntium ™P roc es so r

M ic ro20 00

9

100

Market Penetration (%)

Number of years since original invention

80

60

40

20

01 15 30 60 90 120

World Wide WebCar cell phonePCTelevisionRadioMicrowave ovenVCRElectricityTelephoneCar drivers (% of

adults)

Yet some things are predictable-we just cannot see them yet

Observable Trends

❧ Consumer power❧ Industry

transformation❧ Emerging global

markets❧ Chips in everything

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Consumer Power

❧ Increased spending power❧ Increased choice❧ Customisation❧ On line global shopping❧ Active third age

Industry transformation

❧ New trading markets❧ Globalization❧ Consolidation❧ New Industries

appearing❧ New growth companies❧ Challenges to regulators

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Increased need for security and trust

l Concerns aboutdubious content

l Public worries aboutinformation privacy

l Credit cards and theWeb

l Government andencryption

The electronic economyl Value of Amazon.com

l Success of MicrosoftCarpoint and Expedia

l Emergence of portals likeyahoo.com

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Electronic Commerce

❧ Communicationsenables Global trading

❧ We live in a globalmarketplace

❧ Electronic currencies❧ Impact upon peoples

lives, economies andcultures

Moving towards the object farm

❧ Machine independentsoftware like JAVA

❧ More devices withsoftware upgradeoptions

❧ Object orientation

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word processor

computernetwork

drawing packagespreadsheetMICROSOFT WORD

1. INTRODUCTION

This project and quality plansupplements the information in theproject requirements definition (PRD)[1] and associated project précis [2].It is the intention that this plan shouldprovide the information necessary forthe

MICROSOFT DRAWMICROSOFT EXCEL

“ file : save as”

SAVE AS

file.docgtc.pptfin.xls

# a:# c:

Application

Windows

Hardware

Micro Computers TodayExample -Saving files from Windows…

Middleware is the software ‘glue’which enables software componentsto find each other and communicate via their API’se.g. Windows, CORBA, DCOM….

Middleware is universally employedMICROSOFT WORD

1. INTRODUCTION

This project and quality plansupplements the information in theproject requirements definition (PRD)[1] and associated project précis [2].It is the intention that this plan shouldprovide the information necessary forthe

SAVE AS

file.docgtc.pptfin.xls

# a:# c:

“file : save as”

Word processor

Application Programmers Interface(API) defines what the software component can do

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The Telco World - increasing #s ofapplications

ISDN, PSTN, IP…..

Authentication, Routing, Storage, Configuration….

0800, Personal NumberingVoice messaging, Call Centres...

The Telco World Today

ISDN, PSTN, IP…..

Authentication, Routing, Billing, Storage, Configuration….

800, Personal NumberingVoice messaging……..

Owned and Operated

by the Telco

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Observable Trends - so what?

Possible Futures

❧ Personalisation❧ Partnering❧ Electronic Economy❧ Chips in Everything❧ Smart Devices

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PersonalisationTOMORROW’S SERVICES

❧ Care for family & friends

❧ Fall in love

❧ Go to Doctor

❧ Educate oneself

❧ Read

❧ Go on Holiday

❧ Play sports

❧ Make entertainment

Not just aface in acrowd

Partnering

❧Many new industryplayers

❧Industry restructuring❧You don’t know

tomorrows winners❧You don’t know

tomorrows partners

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The electronic economy

❧ The satellite bank❧ Government Powers change❧ Life gets harder❧ Where’s my data?❧ Who’s got it?❧Trading chains dislocate

Chips in everything

❧ Smaller, Cheaper, &Disposable

❧ Updated software❧ Ambient intelligence❧ Radio Chips❧ Chips in people

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Smart Devices

❧Cuddly toys thatrecognise the user

❧Microwave ovensthat scan and cook

❧Roller blades withGPS

❧Wearable invisiblecameras

Smart Devices

❧The most ordinarydevice will be smart

❧ Plug & play❧ ‘Always on’ even on

the move❧ A trickle charge of

information

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How does that affect theTelco World?

ISDN, PSTN, IP…..

Authentication, Routing, Billing, Storage, Configuration….

800, Personal NumberingVoice messaging……..

Owned and Operated

by the Telco

“Things that think will link”

ISDN, PSTN, IP…..

Authentication, Routing, Billing, Storage, Configuration….

800, Personal NumberingVoice messaging……..

Owned and Operated

by the Telco

Internet orIntranet

Phys

ical

Phys

ical

Mid

dlew

are

Mid

dlew

are

App

s.

App

s.

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Telcos can Link

ISDN, PSTN, IP…..

Authentication, Routing, Billing, Storage, Configuration….

Internet orIntranet

Phys

ical

Phys

ical

Mid

dlew

are

Mid

dlew

are

App

s.

App

s.

API

A Virtuous Circle Software Applications Drive Networks and

Vice Versa

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Tom Invents a Network Architecture -

The AutoNet Imagine:

❧ A small broadband radiorouter

❧ Fit it in cars, lorriestrams & buses

❧ Each becomes a movingswitching hub

❧ New self routing protocol❧ Bypass of the network ?

Questions for the Audience-When will there be

❧ Wireless PCs❧ Heads up displays in cars❧ Exec cars fitted with GPS as

standard❧ The last fixed telephone sold❧ Terabit memory chip❧ No Telephone Books❧ Cellular Millions = Year #❧ Chips in Everyone

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O ur bus iness depends on techno logy..

Mahalo!