Summary of NWP Weather Model Center Use of Hyperspectral IR Data

Dr Mitch Goldberg, PhD Acting Chief Scientist - JPSS Program, NESDIS Roger Heymann, PE Engineering Staff - OSD, NESDIS

All Information Here is Drawn From a Subset of Presentations of the NOAA, NASA HDQTRs, EUMETSAT Hyper-Spectral IR Sensor Workshop, March 29-31, 2011, Key Biscayne, FL

to Highlight - NWP Centers Are Using In Weather Models  

SHOW A WIDE USE OF POLAR SATELLITE HYPERSPECTRAL IR SOUNDERS TODAY BY WORLD GOVERNMENTS’ NWP CENTERS – USING/ASSIMILATING, IN REGIONAL &

GLOBAL OPERATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST MODELS &

CLEAR ACCEPTANCE BY EXPERTS & NWP CENTERS OF HIGH & LEAD RANKING IN AFFECTING MAJOR WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL ACCURACY -

PROVIDING MODELS’ NEED FOR HIGHLY ACCURATE TEMPERATURE & MOISTURE PROFILES

AIRS, IASI

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NASA AIRS ST Meeting Greenbelt, MD, Nov 8-11, 2011

Power Point Presentations of the March 29-31, 2011 Key Biscayne Satellite Hyperspectral IR Workshop are Posted Online at the following Web Site, maintained by NOAA NESDIS STAR Research Office

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/meeting_Hyper2011.php

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Speakers at the Key Biscayne Workshop were Identified, Invited to Speak on Behalf of Participating Gov’s of Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, U.K., U.S., & 34 Member States of EUMETSAT to Address Specific Posed Questions

That Workshop was Titled: “WORKSHOP ON HYPERSPECTRAL SENSOR GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) & ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS FROM ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES”

•                 Focused on 2 Hyperspectral IR Classes: Grating & FTS      Co-organized by NOAA - NESDIS Offices of STAR & OSD, & AOML Research Lab of Key Biscayne; NASA Headquarters; EUMETSAT. With 46 Power Pts from 41 Invited Speakers on Behalf of Governments    

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This Talk , Based Solely on Selected Subset of Workshop Speakers & Their Presentations With Their Views, Information, Culled & Assembled to Focus on IR Sounder Use in NWP Center Weather Prediction Models & Identify Importance

•  Want to Focus On Highlight & Focus On This 1 Narrow Issue •  View Weather Forecast Needs as Having Been the Core Argument /Foundation for NOAA Satellite Acquisitions & Sensors to Date •  Believe it Still Key Core Base for Promoting Future NOAA Sensor Acquisition Missions •  This is Why Narrow Focus on NWP Center Operational Use, Out of All of The Information Gathered In Key Biscayne –

•  To Add a Voice •  To Get Clarity of Certainness of NWP Center Use of Hyperspectral IR Sounder Data

Workshop Explored 3 Classes of Governments’ Dedicated Hyperspectral IR Missions: •  Weather Forecasting, •  Atmospheric Composition/Chemistry, •  Most Recent Dedicated Satellite Missions for CO2 & CH4 GHGs -- GOSAT, OCO2

Inviting Speakers to Present Information on Hyperspectral IR Sensor Missions of IASI-FTS, AIRS-Grating, TES-FTS, ACE-FTS, MIPAS-FTS, GOSAT-FTS, OCO2-Grating

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Culled & Assembled Data of March 29-31, 2011 Power Pts Show With Great Clarity to: --

•  The Operational Use Today of Satellite Hyperspectral IR Sounder Data by NWP Weather Model Prediction Centers & With Experts & NWPs Now Recognizing Its Importance

Key Biscayne Workshop Speakers Show Hyperspectral IR Satellite Sounder Has Emerged To Be Major Sensor For NWP Centers - With its Data Core to Weather Prediction Model Accuracy The Workshop Also Showed a Broader Hyperspectral IR Sensor Use with History of Nations’ Dedicated Sensor Missions For Atmosphere Composition/Chemistry & Green House Gases, too. With Power Pt Information on ACE-FTS, MIPAS-FTS, TES-FTS, GOSAT-FTS, OCO2-Grating, IASI-FTS & AIRS-Grating Hyperspectral IR Sensors Relative to Weather, Chemical/Atmosphere Composition/Climate Monitoring, & GHG Monitoring, With Many Speakers’ Ideas for Next Gen Hyperspectral IR Sensor Enhancements  Rela+ve  to  NWP  March  29-‐31,  2011  Workshop  –Presenta+ons’  Informa+on  Showing  With  Stark  Clarity  &  Confirma+on:  

To Enhance Presented Data Credibility, Key Biscayne Workshop Speaker Sources by Name Are Referenced & Your Accessing Their Presentations is Encouraged

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Multiple March 29-31, 2011 Key Biscayne Workshop Presenters Identify World Gov National Weather Prediction (NWP) Centers Assimilating Polar Satellite Hyperspectral IR Sounder Data in their OPERATIONAL Weather Prediction Models, Both Regional & Global Weather Models   NWP Center IR Sounder Operational Assimilation is Repeatedly Identified by Presentation’s of

•  Bill Lapenta Acting Dir of Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of NOAA-NWS-NCEP •  Thierry Phulpin of France CNES-IASI Program •  James Jung of CIMSS, University of Wisconsin, co-located at EMC •  Eric Fetzer of JPL’s AIRS Program •  Stephen English of Brazil CPTEC & INPE & UK Met Office •  Laars Peter Riishigard Dir of JCSDA (NOAA, NASA, U.S. DOD-Navy- Air Force)

Bill Lapenta Identifies NOAA-NWS EMC Assimilating POLAR Satellite Hyperspectral IR Sounders & NOAA’s Multi-Spectral Geostationary GOES 11 IR Sounder into its 2 Major Operational Weather Prediction Models

•  North American Mesoscale(NAM)/Weather Research Forecast (WRF) Regional Model •  Global Forecast System (GFS) Global Model

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Background to NOAA NWS NCEP EMC’s -- GFS & NAM/WRF Weather Prediction Models •  GFS is a Global Weather Model Forecast to 16 days •  NAM/WRF a Short Range Regional Weather Model Forecast Over North America From 12hrs to 3 Days •  NAM/WRF & GFS Weather Models Run Every 6 hrs, 4 times Daily

Bill Lapenta Presentation Slide 7 Identifies: •  EMC- NAM/WRF Regional Weather Model Assimilating

o  AIRS - Polar orbiting satellite o  GOES 11 Multi-Spectral 19 Band IR Sounder, - Geostationary orbit

•  EMC- GFS Global Model Assimilating o  AIRS of Polar orbiting satellite, o  IASI of Polar orbiting satellite & o  GOES 11 Multi-Spectral 19 Band IR Sounder ,- Geostationary orbit

James Jung of CIMSS Working at NCEP/EMC, Presentation Slide 7, Reinforces further Bill Lapenta, Suggests GFS Model Assimilating Both AIRS & IASI, but His Identification not Firmly Clear  

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Thierry Phulpin, CNES IASI program identifies 8 World NWP Centers Assimilating IASI in their Operational Weather Prediction Models, in 1st of his 2 Presentations:

1.  UK Met office, 2.  ECMWF representing 34 government states, 3.  Meteo France, 4.  German Weather Service, 5.  Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 6.  Environment Canada, 7.  US NOAA/NWS NCEP-EMC, & 8.  US Navy NRL

Stephen English in His Presentation Says “Use of Hyperspectral Sounders is Successful at NWP Centers” Eric Fetzer of JPL in his Presentation Says AIRS Data Are Assimilated into the Operational Forecast Systems at NWP Centers Worldwide    

2 Speakers Bill Lapenta & Lars Riishigard, in their Presentations Identify, Refer to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) Research Identifying High Significance & High Affect of POLAR Satellite Hyperspectral IR Data on NWP Center Weather Models:

•  Finding IASI & AIRS Temperature , Moisture Profiles 2nd & 3rd in Ranking of Impact Behind AMSU-A at Number 1 in Affecting NWP Weather Model Prediction Accuracy

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

O3: Ozone from satellites METEOSAT IR Rad (T,H)

MTSATIMG: Japanese geostationary sat vis and IR imagery GOES IR rad (T,H)

MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (winds) GMS: Japanese geostationary satellite winds

SSMI: Special Sensor MW Imager (H and sfc winds) AMSRE: MW imager radiances (clouds and precip)

MHS: MW humidity sounder on NOAA POES and METOP (H) MSG: METEOSAT 2nd Generation IR rad (T,H)

HIRS: High-Resol IR Sounder on NOAA POES (T,H) PILOT: Pilot balloons and wind profilers (winds)

Ocean buoys (Sfc P, H and winds) METEOSAT winds

GOES winds AMSU-B: Adv MW Sounder B on NOAA POES

SYNOP: Sfc P over land and oceans,H, and winds over oceans QuikSCAT: sfc winds over oceans

TEMP: Radiosonde T, H, and winds GPSRO: RO bending angles from COSMIC, METOP

AIREP: Aircraft T, H, and winds AIRS: Atmos IR Sounder on Aqua (T,H)

IASI: IR Atmos Interferometer on METOP (T,H) AMSU-A: Adv MW Sounder A on Aqua and NOAA POES (T)

IASI AIRS

GOES IR Sounder

Operational ECMWF system September to December 2008. Averaged over all model layers and entire global atmosphere. % contribution of different observations to reduction in forecast error.

From Bill Lapenta Presentation Impact of Satellite Data on NWP

Note: 1) Sounders on Polar Satellites reduce forecast error most 2) Results are relevant for other NWP Centers, including NWS/NCEP

Courtesy: Carla Cardinali

and Sean Healy, ECMWF

ECMWF research Results

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Stephen English of UK MET Office & Brazil CPTEC/INPE Workshop Presentation Sees Hyperspectral IR Sounders as Most Important Affecting NWP Model Forecast Accuracy, Exceeding AMSU-A.

o  Saying “2011-IASI Impact Larger than AMSU-A” & in his Un-numbered Summary Slide 22: “ IASI > 1 AMSU but We Have AMSU on N15-19, MetOp, Aqua Satellites & only 1 IASI, 1 AIRS! Therefore, Overall MW Still Dominant”.

Joel Susskind of NASA GSFC during 1st talk of his 2 Presentations Stated Today’s AIRS Retrievals Equal to Combined AIRS & AMSU of the Past Joel’s Position is - Importance will Grow Once Capability & Use Expand Beyond Using Just Clear Sky Data But Accounting for Clouds as Well, Taking Usable Profiles in Cloudy Areas &  THEN  GOING  BEYOND  THE  NWP  CENTER’S  REGIONAL  (NAM/WRF)  &  GLOBAL  (GFS)  WEATHER  PREDICTION  MODELS:  

•         HYPERSPECTRAL  IR  SOUNDER  IMPORTANCE  TO  NWP  CENTER  HURRICANE  &              TROPICAL  CYCLONE  (TC)  TRACK  &  INTENSITY  PREDICTION  MODELS  WAS  IDENTIFIED:  

Eric Fetzer of JPLAIRS Program in his Presentation Slide 3 Says AIRS Assimilation Improves Tropical Cyclone (TC) Prediction

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Frank Marks Presentation “TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH HYPERSPECTRAL SOUNDINGS” & then Thomaslava Vukicevic With her Collaborators in their Presentation, both of NOAA’s AOML Hurricane Research Division (HRD)

•  Identify for Tropical Cyclone TC)/Hurricane Prediction, Temperature & Moisture Profiles With Model Advance Needed to Improve Accuracy of Track & Intensity (Strength) Prediction.

 Frank Marks Says AOML HRD TC/Hurricane Research Goal is Improve Forecast Accuracy of Impact Areas (i.e. Improve Track, Intensity, Storm Surge Area Forecast, slide 2), & During his Talk stated Satellite Data Likely Reason for Increase in Model Prediction Accuracy for Hurricanes- Intensity & Track Saying Hyperspectral IR Temperature Soundings Can Significantly Impact TC forecast, Slide 11

Then Jun Li of CIMSS, Presentation With Collaborators of NESDIS STAR, NCAR, & China National Academy of Sciences Actually Demonstrate Running 3 Regional Weather Prediction Models (see below) Improved Accuracy Assimilating the Clear Sky AIRS Hyperspectral IR Sounder Data for:

•  Tropical Cyclone (TC)/hurricane Trajectory Prediction •  Severe Storm Precipitation Prediction

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Jun Li collaborators run •  2 TC/Hurricane Prediction Models-

•  WRF/DART (Data Assimilation Research Test Bed) & •  WRF/3DVAR (3-Dimensional Variational system) &

•  1 Regional Storm Precipitation Prediction Model-AREM/4DVAR-(4-Dimensional Variational System)

They 1st Assimilate Multiple Data Sources:

•  (e.g. Radiosonde, Satellite Cloud Winds, QuikSCAT Winds, Aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, Ship, & Land Surface data) Make TC/Hurricane Track, Intensity, & Precipitation Forecasts

They then add AIRS Clear Sky Data to their Earlier Assimilation Show Seeming Dramatic/Significant Track Forecast Accuracy Improvements, for Hurricane IKE & TC SINOKU

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•  ---------- Obs Observation •  ---------- CTL all data without AIRS •  ------------ AIRS Clear Sky added to CTL

Obs- Actual Hurricane IKE track CTL: Assimilation of Radiosonde, Satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT Winds, Aircraft Data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, Ship, & Land surface data. HURRICANE IKE TRACK Showing Improved 96hr Forecast on Assimilating AIRS Clear Sky Data First- CTL 96hr Track forecast with NO AIRS data Jun Li, NESDIS STAR, NCAR, China Nat’l Academy of Sciences Presentation Slide 10

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Additional Related Data Points on NWP Center Use of AIRS & IASI in Weather Models NWP Center Assimilation of AIRS & IASI in Weather Prediction Models Occurs With Only Clear Sky & Over Ocean Measurements, Maybe Above Cloud Top too:

•  James Jung SSEC/CIMSS Working at NCEP/EMC Presentation Slide 2 Says Most NWP Centers Use Clear Sky, Above Cloud Only •  Thiery Phulpin of CNES Says IASI Rarely Used Over Land, Used Over Sea, Sometimes Over Ice •  Bill Lapenta EMC Presentation Slide 7 is Specific on GOES 11 Multi Spectral 19 Band Sounder Assimilated Only Over Ocean, No Insight on AIRS & IASI being Used Over Ocean Only

 Joel Susskind’s 1st day Presentation Highlights AIRS Original Objectives --- Providing Real Time Observations to Improve Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) by Data Assimilation with AIRS Designed Accordingly (This relates in particular to SW IR)

•  Given This, Joel Susskind Identifies Low Short Wave (SW) Detector Noise of AIRS Ability Needed to Account for Clouds, Being Specifically Designed for Low Noise, Identifying AIRS SW IR Between 2197cm-1 – 2664cm-1.  

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•  Joel Susskind Sees this SW Low Detector Noise as Key to Expand Temp & Moisture Profiles to Cloud Regions. In Written notes of His Talk Joel Susskind Identifies With AIRS Like SW IR Detector Low Noise, ABLE TO DO ACCURATE TEMPERATURE PROFILES UNDER ALL CLOUD CONDITIONS.          

•  Joel Susskind Points Out IASI, a High Spectral Resolution IR FTS on METOP-A Having Much Higher SW Noise than AIRS, Showing That Difference in his Slide 3

•  In His Conclusion Page in 1st Presentation Relative to Accounting for Clouds Joel States:

•  For Future Geostationary Orbiting Sounders With Low noise AIRS Like SW IR NEDT Out to 2500 cm-1, There is No Need for a GEO MW Sounder

Thierry Phulpin of CNES in his Presentation identifies CNES for IASI Next Gen Wants to Extend Profiles to Cloud Conditions & Improve Temperature & Moisture profiles Over Land

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Cyril Crevoisier Representing France, LMD-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/CNRS/IPSL in his Presentation Speaking to Ability of IASI to Measure Trace Gases of CO2 & CH4 Says CNES To Look To Lower Noise by Factors or 2 & 4 With NG IASI Then Thierry Phulpin, in His Presentation Relative to Operational Meteorology, identifies IASI Level 2 Products As Rarely Used.

•  This Suggests in Era of Fiscal Restraint,To Lower Satellite System Acquisition Costs by Setting Priority to Core Needed Algorithms, Leave 2nd Tier, to Budget Needs to Later Yrs

Stephen English Representing UK MET Office & Brazil’s CPTEC & INPE in His Presentation States Hyperspectral Sounders Have 1000s of Channels Yet NWPs Use Only ~ 150, listing Reasons. James Jung SSEC/CIMSS Working at NCEP/EMC Presentation Says Though AIRS, IASI Have 1000s of Channels With NWPs Use Just ~200. Bill Lapenta Presentation slide 7 Says for GFS Global & NAM/WRF Regional Weather Prediction Models Only 148 AIRS Channels Used & for IASI 165 Channels

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Hyperspectral IR Sounder Ability by its Temperature & Moisture Profiles to Affect Weather Model (Regional & Global) Prediction Accuracy, Being Among if Not The Greatest Impacting of Sources Seems Occurring With NWPs Assimilating Just Over Ocean, Clear Sky, & Maybe Above Cloud Tops Data.

Number of Temperature & Moisture Profiles Available To NWPs Would Increase Along with Its Importance with Next Generation Hyperspectral IR Sounders Having

•  AIRS Like SW IR Detector Low Noise Ability, as Joel Susskind Says, Enabling Accurate Temperature Profiles Under All Cloud Conditions, Beyond Just Clear Sky •  & If, An Ability to Generate Profiles Over Land Developed.

& Now, There is Further Hyperspectral Sounder Contribution to Increased Weather Model Prediction Accuracy When October 2011 Launched NPP Satellite CrIS Sounder Is Added to AIRS & IASI in NWP Assimilations Stephen English in his Presentation Says – “Plans Well Advanced in NWP Centers for Use of CrIS Radiances”

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Thank You

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Addendum of Information – This Likely will Not be Presented at the Meeting from Speaker Time Limitation

Also, the Desire Is Not To Take Away From This Presentation’s Core Message Concerning

NWP Centers and AIRS & IASI Operational Use Today – The FOCUS!

However, There is Value to Seeing What Key Biscayne Presenters Say About Ability of AIRS and IASI from their Nadir View of Earth to Make Atmosphere Composition/Chemical Reaction

Measurements

•  Note, Canada’ CSA ACE FTS for its Ozone and Atmosphere Composition Monitoring Mission Makes Measurements By Solar Occultation Technique

•  ESA’S MIPAS FTS and JPL/NASA TES FTS Make Atmosphere Measurements by a Limb View of Earth Through the Atmosphere

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Addendum Information

Relative to AIRS Eric Fetzer in his Presentation Slide 3 Identifies Ability of AIRS to Measure Important Trace Gases of: CO, O3, CO2, CH4, SO2 Moustafa Chahine & Ed Olsen Presentation on GHG Research & What Does AIRS show for Future of Atmospheric Measurements, Wed March 30, 2011 Identify:

•  Measure CO2 Stratosphere (30km), & Lower •  Developing Mid-Stratospheric 25km CO2 Product •  Can Measure CO2 at Mid-Troposphere (10KM) •  Lower-Troposphere 2.2km CO2 (preliminary results – channel set not yet optimized) •  Extension of CO2 measurement to Lowest 1 km, Requires Higher Spatial & Spectral Resolution

& Range of Applications For AIRS Identify:

•  H2O •  O3 •  CO •  CO2 •  CH4 •  SO2 •  NH3 •  MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation •  ENSO- El Nino Southern Oscillation •  TBO - Tropical Biennial Oscillation •  “Gravity” Waves being vertical waves of air movement

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Addendum Information - continued

For IASI : •  From Wed Mar 30, 2011 Presentation of Cathy Clerbaux -LATMOS-Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France & Pierre Coheur SPECAT/ULB-Spectroscopie de l'Atmosphere, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium Titled “IASI Contribution to Chemistry(-climate)” •  & Thierry Phulpin Tues March 29, 2011 PM Presentation:

•  IASI Species Monitored/Measured & Contributions to Climate, & Products:

•  Dust Aerosols •  Dust Altitudes •  CO2 GHG •  CH4 GHG Major Role in Both Troposphere & Stratosphere Chemistry •  N2O - GHG •  CFC12 •  CFC11 •  C2H2 •  C2H4 •  C3H6 Propylene •  H2CO •  H2S •  HONO •  C4H4O •  HCN •  OCS Carbonyl sulfide major non-volcanic source of stratospheric sulfate aerosols

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•  CO GHG •  O3 GHG, Tropospheric O3 3rd Most Important GHG after CO2 & CH4 •  O3 GHG Total Ozone •  HNO3 - GHG Total Column •  HCN •  SO2 - Reactive Gas, Volcanic Eruptions •  N2O •  NH3 - Reactive Gas with NH3 Accounting for 50% of Reactive Nitrogen Emissions (Biomass Burning, Fertilizer- Nitrogen, Breeding, Oceans, Humans & Waste Water)

•  IASI has Identified in 1 yr 28 NH3 Emission Hot Spots •  H2O – •  VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) – GHG •  Biomass Burning Plume •  Aerosols •  Air Quality

Continuing IASI Species Monitored/Measured & Contributions to Climate, & Products -

The End

Addendum Information - continued