Aims

What Are Policy Makers Doing?

SIAS Meeting12 August 2008

Dan Hamza-Goodacre – Adapting to Climate Change Programme, DEFRA

Aims

• Share the following information about the

Government’s work on adapting to climate

change to inform the APCC working party:• Understanding of the risks

• The potential impacts/costs

• What the Government is doing

• Discussion points

3

Aims

• Understanding of the risks




5

Anticipated Increase in UK Summer Temperatures: By the 2040s, 2003 will be “normal”

observationsHadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)

2003

2040s

2060s

Tem

per

atu

re a

no

mal

y (w

rt 1

961-

90)

°C

Hadley Centre

Significantly increased flood risk

England/Wales 2004 - 2080

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A global perspective – the less mitigation the more adaptation will be required

1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

FoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme Extreme WeatherWeather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

The risk of serious irreversible impacts increases strongly as

temperatures increase

Stern Review (2006)

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Aims





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Domestic Impacts

• Health and Welfare: c40,000 premature deaths across Europe and 2,000 in UK in 2003 heatwave

• NHS: Extreme heat leads to extra burdens on NHS – in Hampshire alone they saw 2,000 extra hospital days in summer 2003

• Transport: In 2003, heat caused 165,000 delay minutes (Summer 2004 - 30,000) on the railways

• Emergency Services: Between 1986 and 1993 there were on average 37,371 grassland and heathland blazes a year in Britain. But in the 11 years from 1994 to 2005 the average rose to 60,332 a year.

• 2007 floods led to over £3billion in insurance claims

• Changes in biodiversity (loss of common scoter duck, gain wall lizard)

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Potentially significant impact on economy and infrastructure…

Melting roads/road safety

Increased storm activity/extreme weather events

Increased rainfall/ flooding

Urban heat island effect/overheating

Increased Rainfall/Flooding

Infrastructural damage / disruption

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International Impacts

Projected impacts around the world:• By the end of this century global average temperatures could rise by between 1.7

and 4°C (compared with current temperatures)

• By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to an increase in water stress due to climate change.

• Approximately 20-30% of species are likely to at increased risk of extinction if global average temperature exceeds 1.5-2degC

• Brazil's soya exports could slump by more than a quarter over the next 12 years as the result of climate change. (FT 11 August 2008).

• Each year hundreds of millions more people will be subject to coastal flooding due to climate change induced sea-level rise.

Costs of Climate Change

Example: A Foresight study (2004), estimated rise in annual flooding damage from

£1.4bn now to as much as £27bn by 2080 if action is not taken. But with effective

flood risk measures we could reduce these risks down to around £2 billion pa.

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Aims





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Responding to climate change

Three principle strategies:

• Mitigation of GHG emissions

• Adaptation to unavoidable climatic impacts

• Contingency planning and emergency

response

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Adaptation - Definitions and Options

• Adaptation is any adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

• Extent we need to adapt depends on:

1. How the climate changes (thus depends on global mitigation)

2. Vulnerability

3. Appetite for risk (public, ie regulation, and private)

• There are different options for adapting, eg protect (install air con in schools), retreat (close schools when too hot), live with (put up with higher temps in school), increase resilience (build new schools with better ventilation)

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The role of Government

• Much adaptation will be autonomous – it’s weather!

• Correct market failures:

remove barriers to action (lack of info)

create incentives (water pricing, building regulations)

deliver public good adaptation (flood defence, heat wave plans)

Leading by example (manage estate & use £ to effect change)

• Value based interventions (Katrina, coastal

Defence in the UK )

Putting in place a framework for action: 1

• The Climate Change Bill will create a new legislative framework for the UK’s adaptation programme:

1. A statutory UK risk assessment by 2011 (plus CBA)

2. A statutory UK programme to respond to the risks (2012).

3. A power to require any public authority or statutory undertaker to produce a risk assessment and action plan (and duty on HMG to produce a strategy for use of the power) (2009). To be accompanied by statutory guidance.

4. Adaptation advice and scrutiny from the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the independent Committee for Climate Change.

Putting in place a framework for action: 2

• The Adapting to Climate Change Website provides a framework which brings together the work of HMG on adaptation, as well as serving as a ‘hub’ of other information and advice on impacts and adaptation.

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation

• Cross-Whitehall Adapting to Climate Change Programme established.

• Government Departments have set out priorities and established Ministerial leads.

Examples of Government Activity

i. Defra continues to fund the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP08) – due to release new probabilistic scenarios for likely climate change later this year (UKCIP08)

ii. Local Authority adaptation targets

iii. OFWAT climate change adaptation strategy

iv. The Department for Health recently updated Heat Wave Plan.

v. The Highways Agency has changed the constituent materials in roads and widened drainage channels

vi. The government is augmenting the Green Book (the Bible for policy development and resource allocation across government) to factor climate change risks into decision making.

vii. The Department for Transport has engineered a new appraisals methodology for transport projects, which incorporates the risks presented by a changing climate.

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Need to work right across government

Public non-financial assets c£800bn, how

much of that is climate resilient?

Increased risk of animal diseases

such as bluetongue

11% of new homes are

built in flood risk areas

5 Million people live

in flood risk areas

35,000 extra deaths in

Europe and 2,000 in UK in 2003 heatwave

Many oil refineries and

power stations on coastal land

Hampshire saw 2,000

extra hospital days in

summer 2003

Some heritage sites at risk, especially

coastal

More internationa

l conflicts over

resources?

Roads: summer 2003 cost DfT extra £23m in SE

‘Environmental refugees’

could reach 150-200m by

2050s

Rail delays increased fivefold

in 2003 heatwave

£6bn capital programme for schools –

climate resilient?

£3bn cost for 2007 floods

Operational effectiveness of MOD equipment

impacted by heat

Security

Health

Infrastructure

Environment

Q&A

• Will UKCIP08 change what is reasonably foreseeable?

• Are insurance policies properly pricing in the risks from climate change?

• How are climate risks being factored into long-term asset management?

• What role should the Government play?

• What role can actuaries play?

Documents

Aims