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ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
Protect Life and PropertyPromote Economic VitalityEnvironmental Stewardship Promote Fundamental Understanding
Science in Service to Society
Arguments for a major transition
The transition is a product of
(a) significant improvements in capability and
(b) demonstrated importance of the information for decision-
makers
Elements in the transition: An expansion of the forecasting family
As a result of specific needs Air quality, lightning, energy demand; uv, severe weather evacuations, agriculture, etc.
Elements in the transition: An expansion in the time scales of interest
Instrumented and pre-instrumented recordsWeather forecastsSeasonal-to interannual outlooksLong-term climate change
The Future: Environmental “Intel” Center(s)
Addressing Societal Needs
Integrated Observation SystemsData management and accessHigh Resolution coupled models Human Dimensions
Some Steps in the Transition
Promoting the transition from research to operationsAdding “Service” to “Climate” Focus on Communication
Transition from Research to Operations
How Effective is our Transition Process?
A strong research programA healthy infrastructure for transitionA strong interface with the user communityInternational observation and data access partnershipsContinuous evaluation processes
Climate Services
Evidence for a Growing DemandSome examples:
The Evolution of Hurricane Risk Application of ENSO ForecastsWeather DerivativesIPCC; National Assessments
Some Guiding Principles
The Activities and Elements of a “Service” must be User-Centric
Recognize evolving needs and capabilitiesPromote vigorous and comprehensive intersection between knowledge and its useSupport through active researchEvaluate and assess use and effectiveness continuously
Guiding Principles (continued)
Scope of the knowledge base must be retrospective and predictive
Continuous, reliable, accurate historical baseAccess to climate observations (includes paleo)Forecasts and outlooks, month to a year outCauses and character of natural variabilityLong-term climate simulations
Guiding Principles (continued)
An adequate climate services knowledge base requires active stewardship
Open and free exchange of dataTen basic principles of climate monitoringMultipurpose observations (in situ and satellite)Synergism observations and modelsRobust and easily accessible delivery systemNational modeling and analysis capabilityDedicated computational capability
Guiding Principles (continued)
Active and Defined Participation of Governments, Business, and Academia
Government – public goods and services; protection of life and propertyBusiness – motivated by market forces/client interestsAcademia – education and research/ interface with government and business
Key First Steps Toward a More Effective Climate Service
All agencies should ID climate-related observing systems, purpose, management, decision-makersUser-oriented experiments (free data access)Develop regional; place-based “laboratories”Seek out opportunities to combine efforts to serve multiple purposesCreate incentives – incentive for 10 principles and open exchange – support growth in capability designed by states or regions – success of the Oklahoma mesonetEducation initiatives
Communication as an Integral Element
Communicating uncertainty should be an integral part of providing information
Uncertainty is key to decision-making State why information is uncertain, not just the fact that it is uncertainState why information about uncertainty is important Use multiple measures of uncertainty Use multiple communication mechanisms
Communicating uncertainty and context shifts the burden and responsibility appropriately to the decision-maker
Add contextCommunicate what you know as fully as possible, rather than only what you think the decision-maker needs to know
Communication and dissemination of information should be an integral part of the process, not be an afterthought
Invest effort from the outsetEducation should be a goal Use multiple modes
Communication between information providers and users should not be a one-way street – two-way communication and feedback is essential
Success/failure/portrayal of forecasts determine the credibility of future forecasts
Expect mis-interpretation – correct errors quicklyAvoid over-selling forecasts or scienceFollow-up successful and failed forecasts with information
Diverse and different forecasts from multiple sources have both great value and have the potential to create confusion
Multiple forecasts drive improvementUse combined sources in providing information (e.g. web page)Label “official” and “research” forecasts to limit confusion
The Equivalent of an “Environmental Situation Room” or “Intel Center”
•Foundation - Atmospheric Sciences•Promote transition from research to operations•Expand the forecasting family (Climate Service)•Focus on Communication•Create Regional integrated enterprises