Vulnerability Survey for Ca Mau & Kien Giang

ADB TA 7377-VIE Mekong Delta Climate Change Adaptation Study

Purpose of the studyThe key purpose of this project is to address the current knowledge gaps relating to the impacts and related adaptation strategies for climate change management in the Mekong Delta.

The study involves identifying future climate conditions in the Mekong Delta region, and assessing the effects of future climate scenarios on natural, social and economic systems in the region.

Target sectorsThe ToR requires climate and socio-economic impact modeling and risk assessment for three (3) target sectors:

• Energy and Industry;

• Transport and Urban Planning; and

• Agriculture and Forestry.

Vulnerability assessment methodology Study assesses climate change vulnerability for each target sector and province that:

› Clearly establishes the existing climate related vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity); and

› Provides strategic insights into how existing vulnerability is likely to change under various indicative future climate scenarios.

Steps involved• Review of the Global Climate Change, Sea Level Rise Scenario’s for Vietnam

• Assess the effects of Climate Change on Natural Systems

• Assess the potential Impacts on Human Systems

• Identify Vulnerability, Risks, Adaptation Options.

Vulnerability assessment process

Defining vulnerabilityThe IPCC outlined vulnerability in the Third Assessment Report as:

› “The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

› Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (IPCC 2001, p.995).

Mapping vulnerabilityOur survey of ‘current risks’ form the basis upon which we assess and map the future ‘vulnerabilities’ of each district;

Scenarios based on hazard maps for 2030 and 2050.

…. based on assessing and rating vulnerability and risk

Links environmental and socio‐economic dimensions with capacity of local communities and institutions to adapt to climate change….

Vulnerability map for SEA

Hot spots Survey work focused on assessing climate change vulnerability and risk at the larger provincial and district levels.

Also identify ‘vulnerability hotspots’ to highlight the major issues, risks and impacts facing the province.

Hotspots include urban areas, specifically the transport, energy and industrial infrastructure Rural areas exhibiting high levels of poverty that are highly exposed to the impacts of climate change - such as areas affected by sea level rise / inundation.

Philippines

Indonesia

Malaysia

Cambodia

Thailand

Laos

Vietnam

®0 550 1,100275 Kilometers

LegendVulnerable regions (SEA std)

mildly vulnerable (0.33 - 0.46)

moderately vulnerable (0.47 - 0.67)

highly vulnerable (0.68 - 1.00)

Vulnerable Regions in SEA

What we have done Surveyed all 24 districts in 2 provinces

Sector specialists have met with all the GoV provincial counterpart agencies

Questionnaires were completed for both districts and sectors

Support and cooperation received was excellent

Information collectedPopulation and povertyLand use and livelihoodsRegional economyAgriculture and forestryAquaculture and fisheriesIndustry and energyHuman settlements & transportationClimate change perceptions / adaptation

Population and povertyWe found that:

› Population density is medium to high› Ratio of urban to rural is low (i.e. approx 10%)› Poverty rate is about 10%› Adult education is very high (literacy ~ 100%)› Health service are good

Very little information was available on:

› Migration trends› Distribution of households by urban/rural area› Distribution of ethnic groups/households

Land use and livelihoodsAgriculture is the primary industry in terms of GDP, especially aquaculture in Ca Mau and rice in Kien Giang.

Two principle livelihood farming systems exist:

1. Irrigated rice based systems

2.Rice and shrimp based systems

Labour is abundant (60% - 65%).

Regional economyPrimary industries (agriculture, aquaculture, forestry and fisheries)Manufacturing and processing industriesCommercial servicesTourismEnergyUrban settlementWater supply & sanitationTransport systems

AgriculturePredominantly irrigated rice - triple cropping in inland areas/double; Single cropping in hydrologically affected areas (that are out of reach of irrigation; have soil limitations such as acid sulphate; or are salt, drought and flood affected)Rice-shrimp in coastal salt affected zonesAcid soils affect many low lying wetland areasMinor fruit, livestock, vegetables are grown across both provincesGovernment policy supports rice production but is inflexible in allowing transition to rice-shrimp systems or to pure shrimp-based aquaculture Phuc Quoc high-quality pepper sold locally, some exported

Fisheries Fishing is a major industry in both provinces, contributing significantly to the national and domestic markets.

The main fisheries include:› Deep water pelagic species;› Inshore and reef fisheries;› Shrimp and Squid;› and ‘other’ species’.

Fishing operationsInshore fisheries are considered marginal due to high fishing intensity and high costs.

Offshore fisheries cover extensive fishing grounds (150+ islands and 50+ fish processing factories).

Boats operate to sea for long periods (1-2 weeks); serviced by re-supply vessels

Gears used include: pursane nets, trawl / gill nets, long lines, drop lines and traps.

Principle domestic / export markets via Tac Cau, Can Tho and Ho Chi Minh.

AquacultureMostly shrimp, minor freshwater fish

Ca Mau supplies 70% of VN export shrimp

Traditional shrimp grown in southern Ca Mau; An Minh, An Bien

Semi-intensive shrimp, crab, mussels culture promising; but underveloped

Intensive shrimp in Kien Luong, Dam Doi, Cai Nuoc and Phu Tan (disease control key to success)

Rice-shrimp systems increasing in salt affected areas

Typical organisation of aquaculture sector in southern Ca MauTransition I – Supporting traditional farmers to move to semi-extensiveTransition 2 – Supporting Semi-extensive to move to commercial HH intensive

INTENSIVE COMMERCIAL shrimp production. Yields of 5-6 t/ha/crop. Very high

investment and running costs. Targets established

TRADITIONAL high-risk, low-input, disease prone and low-yield shrimp production

SEMI – EXTENSIVE SHRIMP production based on greatly

improved ecosystem quality; limited feeding; aqua-forestry systems,

achieving +700 kg/ha/crop yields. No targets established to transition these

farmers.

Inexistent groups 1

2

< 95% of producers in Nam Can, Phu Tan

Dam Doi

> 3% of producers in Dam Doi, Phuu Tan and Cai Nuoc

Doi

Forestry Forestry: minor but important role in both provinces in comparison with rice / aquaculture Inland Melalueca forests on acid soils are important for biodiversity conservation and livelihoods (construction, charcoal and coastal fences). Mangroves protect against coastal erosion and storm surge, and contribute to biodiversity conservation, fish hatcheries, timber/charcoal production. Many coastal communities earn income from 30/70 mangrove shrimp systems.Dipertocarp eco-tourism forests on Phú Quoc.

Rural water supplyRain-harvested is main drinking water supply for rural people (often requiring supplementary water in the dry season).

Groundwater plentiful over most areas, access is good, makes up the majority of water to HHs from aquifers from 70m to 250 m

Saline intrusion into the shallower aquifers is a problem and getting worse, esp. U Minh in Ca Mau

Many areas have abandoned shallow wells due to saline intrusion

Change in temperature - A2 scenarios

2090-20992050-2059

0C

Application of PRECIS model - Hadley Center, UK

Change in precipitation - A2 scenario

2050-2059 2090-2099

%

Application of PRECIS model - Hadley Center, UK

Inundation Map of Mekong River Delta, SLR 0.75 m

SLR: 0.75 mInundation: 7580 km2 (19%)

Basing on DEM b(5 x 5 km) provided by National Remote Sensing Center, MONRE

CC impacts on natural resources and livelihoods

• COASTLINE EROSION ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN KIEN GIANG (Hon Dat, An Bien, An Minh) and western Ca Mau lining the West Sea.

• Existing dyke is of variable quality along the entire coast from the northern cape of An Bien to the south-western point of Phu Tan District.

• The major continuing impacts are land and coastal forest loss, and potential ones involve increasing risks of storm surge floods, and higher frequency of increased maximum high tide levels.

• A key concern is the ONGOING LOSS OF COASTAL MANGROVES for charcoal, timber and conversion to aquaculture ponds, which requires a high-level PPC task force to determine the options that control these practices, while stimulating viable socio-economic options.

• SALINE INTRUSION PENETRATING INLAND along unprotected canal and river mouths during high tides and dry seasons.

• REPEATED EL NINO RELATED CORAL BLEACHING EVENTS carry the risk of serious coral reef degradation, requiring application of innovative regeneration approaches (coral nurseries & plantations) to restore them to health as soon as feasible. Potential impacts on Phu Quoc tourism.

Vulnerability • Principal socio-economic groups that can be defined as highly-vulnerable to potential

climate change impacts are:

• LOW INCOME EARNING RICE-SHRIMP FARMING FAMILIES in the coastal saline-intrusion belt of Giang Thanh, Kien Luong, Hon Dat, An Bien, An Minh, U Minh and Tran Van Thoih Districts. A significant proportion of these farmers suffer the combined risks of irregular salinity levels, shrimp diseases, inability to invest in pond system improvements.

• RICE PRODUCING FAMILIES WORKING ON LAND WITH LIMITATIONS TO THE QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF IRRIGATION WATER, due to weakened cross-Province flows from the Hau River, salinity intrusion and irregular monsoon rains.

• Farmers are at risk of abnormal onset of the rainy season, of temporary periods of drought during the rainy season, and of heavy rainfall events during crop flowering and before harvesting.

• DOUBLE-CROPPING RICE FARMERS USING LAND AT THE FRONT-EDGE OF THE SALINE INTRUSION ZONE (Giang Thanh example), where rice yields are being significantly reduced.

• Specific Communes are also being affected by reductions in the flows available from the Mekong River to allow for flushing out of salt from rice paddies.

• With unreliable monsoon onset, this means that the time needed for flushing out salt and acidity can be too long for the rice crop to develop and harvest optimally.

Manufacturing & processingSeafood processing is the main industry in Ca Mau

The industrial base in Kien Giang is broader, including the cement production, seafood processing and tourism

Ship building and brick making are important industries in both provinces

Many small-medium size industries, but are generally low value and low technology

The services sectorCommercial sector ranges from open sided palm roofed restaurant to 15-storey air-conditioned hotel with liftsGovernment buildings, large retail stores, hospitals etc built to last - say 30+ yearsPrivate commercial buildings with permanent materials such as family hotels, private sector offices, retail outlets, restaurants generally built down to minimum cost, often refurbished regularly, maybe 20 year lifeFor most small retail stores asset value is in land & not in building structureNo consideration of sea level rise or stronger storm surge etc in building site choice and elevation

Industrial zones Majority of factories (especially seafood processing) occur on relatively low land and are exposed to SLR and inundation – however the majority are of low asset value and have short lifecycles and are less sensitive when compared to high value assets.

Many new industrial zones planned or recently established (many of which are low lying and/or adjacent to urban areas); such as Nam Canh ship building plant, which is very vulnerable to SLR.

Transportation – Ca MauLimited length of National (120 km) and Provincial (273 km) roads.

Major expansions of network with SCC and Highway 1 in hand with raised elevation codes.

Road network constrained by river crossings to be bridged in future.

Extensive long developed network of inland rivers and canals serving all areas

Main coastal trading ports of Nam Can and Song Doc. Inland port of Ca Mau City

Major domestic airport in Ca Mau City

Kien GiangMain road is NR 80 running north – south connecting most major mainland settlements.

To be upgraded along present route as SCC to Cambodia border.

•Main canal from Rach Gia to Ha Tien & Cai Lon river provide main inland water routes.

•Main inland fishing port at Tac Cau.

•Extensive ferry system between main urban areas and Phu Quoc

•Major domestic airports at Rach Gia & for Phu Quoc (soon to be international).

Transportation & Climate Change New roads should be designed with current geological and likely hydrological conditions in mind.

Provincial DoT should have more input into designs as they have a wealth of local knowledge.

Part of the new Highway 1 Extension road to Cape Ca Mau as designed may suffer from: transverse flows through canals and culverts being blocked by silt, which will affect eco-system drainage patterns;

Near the coast, large erosion control will be required to protect road; squatters are likely to locate along the route and have the opportunity to encroach on the national park.

Higher Elevation Codes for roads may well be justified to protect this valuable asset from rising sea levels. However, roads are only a means of transporting people and goods from A to B. If A and B are increasingly underwater due to sea-level rise then there may be no people or goods left to use the protected road.

Although major roads can be protected from anticipated sea-level rises, this would be impossibly expensive for all Provincial and District roads. Hence those living where roads will not be raised will still rely on water transportation as they have done in the past.

Important to ensure that the full inland waterway network remains intact and well serviced for transportation as well as for drainage/irrigation purposes.

Interchanges between inland waterways and key protected roads should be encouraged to develop and the government should assist by constructing all-weather, long lasting jetties. This will assist in the movement of people and goods in future.

TourismKien Giang has 4 tourism zones focusing on marine based tourism: Phú Quoc, Ha Tien, Rach Gia, and Kien Luong.

Phú Quoc is the major tourism destination (328,000 tourists per year (98,000 foreigners); 70% of tourism revenue in Kien Giang province; international airport under construction

Ha Tien tourism is growing as a gateway to Cambodia

Rach Gia tourism focuses on domestic tourists, growing accommodation, food, coffee, bars.

Ca Mau tourism is still developing with only 34,000 tourists / year (1,000 foreigners)

Marine based tourist facilities / attractions highly susceptible to SLR.

Energy infrastructureCa Mau gas-power-fertilizer complex is the largest asset (approx. $2 billion), and is only 2 to 3 meters ASLUnclear if gas pipeline-power–fertilizer complex design considered SLR, berms & pumps possible.Signs of corrosion at Ca Mau Power Plant after less than 4 yrs (will get worse as salinity levels and duration increases in dry season).

Power distributionPower distribution networks estimated value approx. $30 million per province, 30% of which are in salt affected areas

Distribution system mostly built since 1997, salt may reduce poles etc life from 15 to 12 yrs – real impact may be less, possibly can change concrete spec at low or no cost – system will adapt anyway as loads change

110kV HV distribution is mostly already on 1.5 concrete pads

Power supply 95% of households have grid electricity supply.

Power supply is relatively reliable (about 20 power outages per year due low hydropower generation capacity in dry season).

Most industrial plants have diesel back up generators

LPG main cooking fuel, some rural wood and charcoal

Rice husks increasingly replacing coal for waste fish process heat.

Urban settlements – Ca Mau•3 main urban centres led by Ca Mau City (Level II); Nam Can (Level V); Song Doc (Level V). 12 smaller centres.

•Ca Mau City: inland administrative and commercial centre; and for processing of the outputs from the region’s primary sector.

•Nam Can chosen as coastal economic zone. Key transit centre for aquaculture products in the southern part of the Province.

•Song Doc has Marine Economic Town status and serves as the base for small fishing boats.

Kien Giang•2 main coastal urban centres and one island. Rach Gia (Level II) and Ha Tien (Level IV). Phu Quoc (Level IV)

•Key coastal developing urban area of Kien Luong

•28 other smaller inland centres•Rach Gia: administrative and commercial centre and seaside activities

•Ha Tien: historic and border economic zone

•Phu Quoc: domestic and international tourism

Urban utilities – Ca MauCa Mau Water Supply, Sanitation & Urban Works company supplies 8 out of 9 Districts (EXCEPT Ngoc Hien District) with treated piped water from bore holes.

• Considering surface water sources from the east in future: concerns about quality and quantity of groundwater

• Some flooding is reported in low lying areas at high tides with heavy rainfall

• Most urban buildings use septic tanks which discharge into the drainage system

• All Districts have landfill sites

Kien Giang •Kien Giang Water Supply and Sanitation Company supplies Rach Gia, Ha Tien, Phu Quoc and 8 other Districts with treated piped water mostly from surface sources.

•Concern over finding/adapting surface water sources to ensure minimal and manageable salinity issues

•Large scale repeated flooding in Hon Dat, Tan Hiep, Kien Luong and An Bien in wet season from river over-topping

•Most urban buildings use septic tanks which discharge into the drainage system

•All Districts have landfill sites. Ha Tien has a solid waste treatment plant

Urban Utilities Urban water supply systems in both Provinces are investing in new

plants and serving increasing numbers of customers with good quality, subsidised water.

In Ca Mau all urban water is provided from groundwater: in Kien Giang it is mostly from surface water with backup tube wells in the event of extended salinity periods past the water intakes.

While many key urban roads have been constructed and improved in the past, urban drainage and sanitation services have suffered from minimal investment leading to unsightly rubbish, blocked drains and insanitary conditions in many areas. Only one District in the two Provinces has a controlled landfill site.

Large sums of money are planned to be invested in new roads and bridges. Previous experience suggests that sanitation services and drainage will not be a priority. Given the low elevations and small variations in height it makes sense to develop these utilities at the same time as other strategic urban infrastructure. Retrofitting such utilities will be expensive and difficult given the nature of the terrain.

Urban Utilities & Climate Change In both Provinces there is concern about future water supply.

In Ca Mau they are considering surface water sources from the east because of concerns about the quality and quantity of available groundwater:

In Kien Giang the issue is finding/adapting surface water sources to ensure they have minimal and manageable salinity issues.

Drainage, flooding and sanitation issues should all be considered together in future given that they are all interrelated (several planned combined sewage treatment/drainage systems); and all will play a part in dealing with climate change issues.

There are a range of approaches including river containment, river expansion and reducing peak drainage flows.

Urban Planning National policy to move from Primary into Secondary and Service

industries translates into a huge expected new demand for space to produce the GDP and fulfil workforce projections.

Massive new expenditure on dispersed infrastructure to urban periphery sites which have the necessary sizes to meet projections.

Current planning standards are generous in terms of land allocations for the expected population given that overall annual growth rates are about 1.5% with net outmigration.

There is no overall regional strategy which could have determined both the demand and supply issues relating to producing and processing the main products of the region using the potential workforce and capital available.

Consequently, both Provinces and every key urban area are locked in a battle to attract investment into an excess of newly planned economic and industrial zones, rather than examining comparative advantages of each area from a strategic viewpoint.

Urban Planning & Climate Change Relate what is planned and implemented at the urban level with the rural activities (seafood and rice)

that support urban functions. If rural activities are affected by sea-level rise or increased salinity; this will feed into production, incomes, employment and investment and directly influence urban well-being.

Counter-productive to focus on protecting urban areas from the effects of climate change when major impacts will be on production within the primary sector.

Valuable to encourage public thinking and behaviour which takes into account climate change by trying to make urban living more efficient and safer. The revised elevation codes have their merits as do revised building designs which minimise the use of ground floors for habitation.

Low-density, dispersed and randomly phased development is not conducive to sustainable living. The current urban Master Plans are hard to efficiently service and protect from rising sea levels with government supplied and paid infrastructure.

There is a good case for the private sector to provide much of the supporting infrastructure for the industrial and service expansion themselves.

Within overall long-term strategy. GoV should make clear what, when and where will be the short-term supporting urban investments, to encourage development in agreed locations.

Climate change perceptions All districts very concerned about impacts of

climate change

Most agencies and districts are aware of impacts of climate change, especially in the coastal zone and urban areas.

The majority of agencies and districts to a lesser extent are preparing for climate change through planning and awareness raising activities.

Adaptive capacity • Knowledge about science of climate change and range of potential

impacts on natural resources and agricultureCC is variable but overall is below optimum in DARD and DONRE; and at District and Commune levels.

• Specific foci of climate impacts are recognised, including specific areas of coasts ongoing erosion; but there is little awareness of the specific risks to agricultural and aquaculture systems posed by climate change-related heatwaves, droughts, intensified rainfall, floods etc.

• Climate change risks already widely understood are the altered and abnormal seasons, and the spreading of saline surface waters.

• Very limited inter-Department joint work programmes are being carried out, consultation on plans and reporting on achievements is virtually non-existent, and lesson-learning across Depts. is very limited.

• Work briefs are highly compartmentalised with staff only attending to issues of direct responsibility, inhibiting the ability to think across disciplines, generating strategic insights on which to base integrated programmes that tackle complex sets of causes of a defined problem.

Barriers to adaptation Main barriers to taking action to address potential climate change impact:

Lack of information about potential climate change impacts

Poor public understanding and lack of public support

Lack of funding for climate change planning

Ambitious plans for expansion of COMMERCIAL INTENSIVE SHRIMP production are set for 2015 in both Provinces. Now being filtered down to Commune level targets (40 – 60 ha per year per Commune). There are VERY UNCLEAR UNDERSTANDINGS of how to meet all the TA, water quality, credit, investment and skills requirements.

Saline intrusion control plans largely involve ambitious plans for SLUICE GATE CONSTRUCTION across canal mouths to the sea; and within inland canal systems to control inward progress of saline intrusion movements.

CAMBODIA – CA MAU – HCM TRUNK ROAD, attempts integration with sea dyke defences along Kien Luong – Hon Dat – Rach Gia section.

Associated with ambitious PLANS TO DAM THE CAI LON RIVER upriver of the AN BIEN PROPOSED BRIDGE; linking in to proposed development of LARGE SCALE SEAFOOD PROCESSING FACILITIES on both sides of Cai Lon (Chau Tanh / An Bien).

DAM OF CAI LON RIVER would create a reservoir capable of storing large volumes of freshwater to improve supplies to the two main N-S canals crossing An Bien and An Minh.

Priorities for climate change measures:

• Sea dyke establishment

• Agricultural sector resilience and better national, Province & District NRM planning

• Improved aquaculture systems

• Awareness raising

• Mangrove restoration

Enhanced coordination of spatial planning on all time scales is needed. Consideration of absorption capacities and investment payback schemes may be neglected in top-down planning, where DARD, DONRE, MOC and Districts need to participate in a clear consultative process with local stakeholders.

Better coordination process must be designed and authorised so that donors, Departments, Institutes and affected stakeholders can make their views heard at relevant stages of proposal development.

Poverty recommendations: 2• Traditional poverty reduction focus of policy-makers and agency staff needs to be re-dimensioned towards vulnerability reduction.

• Same level of political priority assigned by the PPCs to eliminating pockets of poverty through economic growth and social welfare measures, now needs to be assigned to the hotspots or ‘adaptation areas’ identified in this study.

• Vulnerability and poverty need to be understood as two sides of the same coin.

• The hotspot identification procedure should be developed to allow government staff to systematically analyse the issues facing each geographical zone, and identify specific actions to support vulnerability reduction.

NRM recommendations: 3

• An urgent need is to re-examine the DARD fishing zones delimitation and quota supervision systems, AND MAKE THESE OPERATIONAL in order to tackle the potentially high risk of collapsing fish stocks, under the combined threat of over-fishing, and climate change impacts.

• Management costs of control systems need to be derived from taxes and profits of port authorities and seafood processing plants, which have a clear interest in continued sustainable seafood supplies.

• Opportunities should be vigorously taken to learn from all innovative practices developed by GIZ project, in mangrove rehabilitation, Melalueca coastal fencing systems, low cost concrete faced earthen dykes; and sustainable aquaculture and coastal forest management.

• A particular synergy is the work done on the thinning of inland Melalueca forests, producing poles of various dimensions for sea fences, and leaving behind stands of trees to fatten up as potential high value trunks for veneer or furniture.

• Continued focus on improving the Melalueca value chain and ensuring that farmers receive maximum added value is essential for sustainability of these forests. Massive educational programmes on the advantages of thinning should receive PPC support.

Provincial PPCs, MARD and its respective DARDs should establish a target programme to support traditional shrimp farmers to capitalize and become more productive, by moving an annual percentage of these out of high-risk, low-yielding systems, into SEMI- EXTENSIVE SYSTEMS

Improved water monitoring systems; protect water quality in the canal systems; and encourage farmers to install improved aqua-forest ecosystems that can increase natural productivity.

Some enterprising farmers should be supported to move to semi-extensive systems, including supplementary feeding, and using improved shrimp genetic stock.

Apart from the ambitious targets set for DARD to establish new areas of intensive commercial shrimp farms, DARD will need to add SIGNIFICANT WATER QUALITY MONITORING AND DISEASE CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES to its menu of technical assistance programmes.

This will require DARD to collaborate actively with other actors such as the Institute of Aquaculture to build programmes that the considerable lower production risks facing smaller-scale farmers.

Agri recommendations: 5• PPCS OF CA MAU AND KIEN GIANG WILL NEED TO INCREASE THEIR SUPPORT

AND FLEXIBILITY TOWARDS THREE MAJOR TRANSITIONS IN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS:

(I) In double-cropping rice producing areas, where saline intrusion is significant, and where access to Mekong river irrigation water is limited in the dry season, planners must show increasing flexibility towards ALLOWING FARMERS TO MOVE TO RICE-SHRIMP SYSTEMS.

(II) In areas where rice-shrimp farming has been allowed, saline intrusion will progress over coming decades making soils too difficult to manage for rice production. This will then require an EVENTUAL POLITICAL DECISION TO PERMIT FARMERS TO MOVE TOWARDS PURE AQUACULTURE PONDS, as in southern Ca Mau.

• (III) The current plan to promote intensive shrimp aquaculture on a large scale in Kien Giang and Ca Mau Provinces, relies on many uncertain ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING THE ABILITY OF SMALL-SCALE, RISK-AVERSE, TRADITIONAL SHRIMP PRODUCERS TO “JUMP” TO INTENSIVE SYSTEMS. The need for wide-scale access to improved skills and credit is barely recognised. As well the need for improved electricity infrastructure.

• (IV) Renewed attention needs to be placed on the CORRECT BALANCE BETWEEN CONSERVATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OBJECTIVES, giving these a high priority when considering typical very ambitious development plans emerging from PPCs and Districts.

• THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE WILL INCREASINGLY DICTATE LIMITS TO GROWTH, AND MAKE SOME DEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS SIMPLY UNFEASIBLE. THESE LIMITS NEED TO BE GIVEN ATTENTION AND PRIORITY.

Next stepsNext Step – prioritizing

risks

Identifying specific

adaptation options &

sites

Thank YouFrom the International Team of consultants:

Peter Mackay – Team Leader

Mark Kowal – Agriculture and NRM

Frank Pool – Energy and Infrastructure

Ian Hamilton – Planning and Urban Dev.

Ronnie Carbonell – Social Issues and Economics