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Adapted from the work and presentations of Rob Hopkins

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Agenda

• The Oil Gap• Oil Security• Peak Oil & Climate Change• Ready to Change?• Transition Initiatives• Examples

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The Oil Gap

The Second Half of the Age of Oil

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The Petroleum Blip

4km

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Fact• If the Global Economy grows at 3% pa between

now and 2040 we will consume resources equivalent to ALL those we consumed since humans first stood on two legs.• Total Oil Reserves were roughly 2 trillion barrels

• We burnt the first 1 trillion in 125 years

• The rest will be burnt in 30 years

• In 2025 the demand for Oil will be 60% higher than today…… yet production will have fallen to 1985 levels

• The OPEC Embargo in the 1970’s only restricted supply by 5% yet prices quadrupled overnight

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We’ve Been Here Before

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Discovery peaked 40 years ago

Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after

Exxon-Mobil3yr moving average

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One Barrel of Oil is discovered for every four we consume

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Crying Wolf• Peak Oil prediction has become subject to a

myth of innaccuracy

• Of EIGHT reputable predictions for Peak Oil in the 1970’s (including ESSO, UK Dept of Energy, Shell & BP) the range of dates given were 1995 to 2000

• Despite some outlandish claims for Oil Exhaustion by the year 2000 these did not come from Oil Geologists

• These were based upon known reserves and consumption rates

• The method of calculating Peak has been known about for a century whilst the figure for total eventual Oil Endowment has not changed for 40 years

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Events Today

• May 22nd – IEA (International Energy Agency) issues downard revision of the Oil Industry’s ability to keep pace with demand

• Predicted capacity was 116 million barrels per day by 2030 but now they admit it won’t make 100 million barrels per day

• Experts predict $200/barrel soon• In July a fuel theft in Ireland lead to

the death of one woman• Gas Watchdog predicts 70%

increase in Gas Bills for the UK• US Energy Secretary admits

“demand has outstripped supply”

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What we are told now

• “One thing is clear: the age of easy oil is over” David J O’Reilly, CEO, Chevron

• “The world should forget about cheap oil” Venezualan President Chavez

• “The time has come to prepare for the ‘post-oil’ era, we must all incorporate this change in our behaviour and reduce consumption” French Prime Minister de Villepin (July 2005)

• “As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented.” US Dept of Energy funded report (2005)

• “I expect to see a peak sometime before 2015… and decline rates at 4 to 8% per year.” Jeremy Gilbert, former BP Chief Peroleum Engineer (May 2007)

• “We are addicted to Oil.” George W Bush Jnr

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Polar Oil

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What Peak Looks Like

Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

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Oil Security

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The UK: The Widening Gap

Source: DTI

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Gas? UK Annual Forecast & Import Requirement

Source – National Grid

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Oil and War• World War II• 1970’s – ‘securing World Oil supplies’• Iran 1953 to 1979 – ‘blowback’• Kuwait 1991• Afghanistan 2001• Iraq 2003 – today• 9/11 and 7/7• High Wycombe – if you go down to

the woods today…• There is no war on terror?• Opportunity cost – money better

spent

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The Growth in Biofuels

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Oil, Money and Poverty

• Negative correlation between wealth & oil exports• Higher poverty, malnutrition,

illiteracy, corruption, authoritarianism, civil war & debt

• Strange choices:• Wind versus coal

• Wind versus peat

• Where is the wisdom?

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Human Rights & Habitat

• Nigeria• Shell versus the Ogoni

• Ecuador• Big Oil versus the Yasuni• Leaving the Oil in the

ground?

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Peak Oil & Climate Change

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Agriculture

• Extreme weather

• crop damage & lower yields

• All pesticides, herbicides, fungicides and fertilisers are made from petrochemicals

• The non-organic industry is dependent upon them

• Peak Oil will cause the price of these petrochemicals to rise and restrict their supply

• Yields will drop

• Food prices are going to rise

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Energy

• Turning on the Air Conditioning is not an option

• Turning up the Heat is not an option

• Substituting Coal generates more CO2

• Carbon is going to be taxed at source and/or at point of use• Governments will attempt to

restrict Carbon Fuel usage in order to meet international obligations

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Clean Tech

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• Peak Oil can make adapting to Climate Change more difficult• & vice versa

• BOTH impact our Food Chain• Some solutions to Peak Oil will make Climate

Change worse• & vice versa

• The solution to Peak Oil is to use less Fossil Fuels• The solution to Climate Change is to use less Fossil

Fuels• Hmmmm…………… now there’s a thought!

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Ready to Change?

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I’ll Change but… you first

• Governments assume that, if they just give the

right information to people, they will act

appropriately – however the public believe that

the Government should initiate change – level

the playing field

• Consumers are “locked in” to unsustainable

consumption by institutional factors beyond their

control – therefore the Institution must change

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I’ll Change but… its inconvenient• The public favour ‘sustainable modes of consumption’

but are only motivated if they personaly benefit• People are put off by the idea of sacrifice, disruption to

daily routine or any inconvenience

• Change is a social process offering social substitutes to ‘normal’ product & behaviour• Consumer goods are key to aspects of

identity, social cohesions and cultural meaning

• Reinforcing, connected, change in technology, institutions, behaviour, culture, ecology & belief systems take 25 years – but can be accelerated by a sudden, unexpected, one-off event

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Readiness for Change

• Do not assume that everyone is ready for change

• People are a different stages1. Some know nothing and have no intention of

learning more2. Some are aware and contemplating change3. Some are changing and are preparing4. Some people are changing5. Some people have changed and maintaining

their changes

• Where are you?

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Transition Initiatives

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More & more…. & more!

…and? Us?..

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Organise

• Form a committee

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Raise Awareness

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• Collaborate where possible

• Co-operation, not competition

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“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.

Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

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Up and RunningArts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health /Housing / Education / Transport

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Workshopping in “Open Space”

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Develop Visible Manifestations of the Project

“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

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Facilitate the Great Reskilling

Skilling Up for Powerdown.Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…

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Build a Bridge to Local Government

World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors

Endorsed by Totnes Town Council

Contributions to Local Development Framework.

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Learn from the Elders

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Let It Go Where It Wants to Go

• Solar Water Heater Challenge.• The Totnes Renewable Energy

Society (TRESOC)• Lending Library• NISP workshops• TTT International Youth Music Festival• Garden Swap

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Create an Energy Descent Action Plan

• Start with a vision and then backcast• Incorporate Transition Tales• Base it on current planning documents.

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Examples

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Working with BusinessOil Vulnerability Analysis

Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses.

Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group.

Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow.

Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce

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Estates in Transition conference. June 11th 2007.

Working with Local Landowners

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The Totnes Local Food Directory

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The Totnes Pound

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Transition Tales

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Communicate Transition Town ideas

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Great Reskilling courses

Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, hand made paints, stove building, forest gardening, food growing, bread making...

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What Next?

?