ABATEMENT GHG EMISSIONS SCENARIO FOR ENERGY&TRANSPORT SECTORSMinistry of Industry and EnergyNational Agency of Energy

PhD. Besim ISLAMI Chairman of NAE

Copenhagen, on June 29-30, 2004

Energy Sector Challanges (1990 currancy)

Energy Cons. for each sector (kTOE)

Elect. Cons. for each sector (kTOE)

Primary En. Supply - kTOE

Elec. Generation & Import, GWh

GHG BASELINE EMISSION SCENARIO IN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR

The software used for development of Energy & Transport baseline emissions scenario is LEAP system which is a computer-based accounting and simulation tool designed to assist policy makers in evaluating energy policies and developing sound, sustainable energy plans.

LEAP, as an integrated energy and environmental planning tool, can help in the formulation of more rational and environmentally beneficial energy policies since it expands the boundaries of analysis in two important ways.

GHG BASELINE EMISSION SCENARIO IN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR

First, demand-side measures for improving efficiency are placed on an equal footing with energy supply options.

Second, environmental effects are explicitly considered in the evaluation of alternative energy plans. The developed long-term scenario, uses a Bottom-Up approach, end-users and technologies.

LEAP is developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute - Boston (SEI-B) with support from UNEP and other agencies, LEAP has been used by more than 140 organizations in over 60 countries.

Driving FACTORS for GHG BASELINE and ABATMENT EMISSION SCENARIOS IN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR

GHG BASELINE EMISSION SCENARIO IN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR - 1000 ton

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CO2-transformation

CO2-non energy use

CO2-transport

CO2-industry

CO2-services

CO2-agriculture

CO2-residential

The Mitigation Scenario is divided in two parts:First Part: Reduction of GHG Emissions throught introduction of different energy efficiency measures in each economic sector

Second Part: Reduction of GHG Emissions throught introduction of natural gas power plants versus HFO plants and introduction of different renewable energy sources (solar energy, small hydro power plants, wind energy, biomass energy, biogass, etc)

Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in Household Sector1.Thermal insulation of existing stock (zone III & II) and all new stock to be based in Approved New Energy Building Code,

2.Efficient Refrigerators;

3.Efficient Lighting;

4.Thermal Time-switches for electric boilers;

5.Prepayment Meters;

6.Solar Water Heaters System for substitution of electric boilers.

Introduction of Thermal Insulation/Household

Introduction of all different energy efficiency measures in Household Sector

Introduction other measures in HouseholdThe proposed measures will include all about mentioned above but may not be limited only to them. The following measures also produce reduction of GHG emissions, while they will be analysed during the Second National Communication in Household Sector.

1.Central Heating Systems for substituting individual heaters in multi-stored buildings;

2.District Heating Schemes in new districts in urban areas;

3.SSCHP and DH Schemes in new districts in urban areas.

4.Carry out awareness campaign to promote energy efficiency for all measures in Household

Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in Service SectorIn Abatement GHG Emissions Scenario by implementing the following energy efficiency measures in Service Sector considering a proper norm of penetration, the energy demand will be reduced bringing in the same time abatement of green house gases from service sector.

1.Efficient Refrigerators,

2Efficient Lighting,

3.Efficient Electrical Motors.

Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in Service

Introduction other measures in ServiceThe proposed measures will include all about mentioned above but may not be limited only to them. The following measures also produce reduction of GHG emissions, while they will be analysed during the Second National Communication in Service Sector.

1.Solar Water Heaters Systems in public and private service buildings;

2.District Heating Schemes in existing and new public and private service buildings;

3.SSCHP and DH Schemes in existing and new public and private service buildings.

4.Carry out awareness campaign to promote energy efficiency for all measures in Service

Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in Industry SectorHistorically, energy intensity in industrial sub-sectors has been very high. The following measures are selected for introduction in industrial sector in order to reduce GHG emissions:

1.Efficient Heavy Fuel Oil fired Boilers;

2.Efficient Coal fired Boilers;

3.Efficient Electrical Motors;

4.Improvements of Power Factor;

5.Efficient Lighting.

Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in Industry Sector

Introduction other measures in IndustryThe following measures also produce reduction of GHG emissions, while they will be analysed during the Second National Communication in Industry Sector.

1.Improvements of energy consumption as a consequence of a better management;

2.District Heating Schemes in existing and new industrial consumers;

3.SSCHP and DH Schemes in existing and new industrial consumers.

4.Carry out awareness campaign to promote energy efficiency for all measures in Industry

Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in Transport SectorBoth GHG Scenarios and projections of the sector itself, assume that the energy demand for the Transport Sector will continue to develop with the same trends. The qualitative measures are the following:

Improvement of the difficult situation of the existing roads and construction of new ones;

Increasing the share of public transport for passengers and goods;

Increasing the taxes for second hand category cars; etc.

Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in Agriculture SectorWith the objective of reducing the energy consumption according to the Abatement Scenario, the following quantitative and qualitative measures will be taken into consideration and analyzed in Second Communication:

1.Reduction of 10% of energy intensities due to a better management. It will be achieved by restructuring the agriculture sector and establishing farmer groups that will enable the use of mechanized machineries.2.Application of biomass schemes and production of biogas from plants and agriculture and animal farming wastes.3.Use of solar collectors that produce hot air for drying up of different cultures.4.Use of existing irrigation reservoirs to install SHPP where economically efficient (with a total capacity of 20-25 MW).5.Installation of 20 wind energy power plants close to 20 pumping stations to protect lands from flooding.

Introduction of Energy TransformationGHG abatement measures related with energy transformation sector are also very important. In Albania, main efforts in this category of abatement measures will be focused on power sector and utilization of renewable energy sources. The following measures will be introduced:

1.Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO Plant;

2.Hydro Power Plant instead of Natural Gas Plant;

3.Gas Power Plant instead of HFO Power Plant;

4.Minihydro versus diesel generator;

5.Wind Turbines versus diesel generators;

6.Wind Turbines versus natural gas power plant;

7.Solar PV versus diesel generator.

Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO Plant

Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO PlantSchematic Layout of Drin River Cascade

Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO PlantSchematic Layout of Vjosa River Cascade

Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO PlantSchematic Layout of Devolli River Cascade

Small Hydro PP instead Diesel SetsThere are 84 SHPP with a total capacity of 14 MW and only 25 of them are working.Privatization process for them has started on 1998, so actually all of them are in final stage of privatization We have started a Program with kfW to finance with soft loan for the best SHPP in three phase:Rehabilitated the best one with 7 MEURORehabilitated others based in cost benefit analize the best one with 10-12 MEUROBuild new ones with a total capacity 50-70 MW with a total investment of 40-60 MEURO

solar energy for hot waterkWh/m2 yearSunshine hours/years

Solar energy for hot water in servicekWh/m2 yearHFOSolarLek/kWh1 USD = 100 Lek

Wind Energy

Introduction of different measurments in Energy Transformation Sector

Introduction of different measurments in Energy & Transport

Introduction of different measurments in Energy & Transport

ALL ENERGY AND TRANSPORT ABATEMENT MEASURES IN MILLION TONS OF CO2 EQUIVALENT FOR THE YEAR 2020 RANKED IN THE DECREASING ORDER

OF SELECTED GHG EMISSIONS ABATEMENT MEASURES BASED ON COST OF REDUCTION [USD/CO2 EQUIVALENT]