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A few reflections & questions on PESfrom a citizen working in the private sector
Presentation given on the occasion of the Synerjob conference organized by the Forem, VDAB & the EU
Laurent Ledoux([email protected])
Brussels - 01/12/10
PES in perspective ?1
PES under pressure ?2
Questions for PES ?3
BELGIUM : REAL GDP GROWTH (in %)NBB figures
-4,0-3,5-3,0-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,0
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-4,0-3,5-3,0-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,0
BN
PP F
ort
isF
orec
asts
Source : Thomson Financial Datastream
PES in perspective ? – GDP & Employment growth
BELGIUM: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (in %)Figures NBB
-4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
qoq % annualized yoy %
Source : Thomson Financial Datastream
PES in perspective ? – GDP & Employment growth
PES in perspective ? – GDP & Employment growth
-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5
-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5
BN
PP F
ort
isF
orec
asts
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
0 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Employment growth (in %)Employment growth (in %)
Real GDP Growth (in %)
PES in perspective ? – GDP & Employment growth
Time-series analysis in EU Elasticities by country (1970-1998)
USAEU
SpainGermanyUKFranceNetherlandsAustria
Source : The relationship between growth, employment and unemployment in the EU – Ewald Walterskirchen – AustrianInstitute of Economic Research - 1999
7
Belgium
Source : I. Cassiers, Revue Nouvelle march 2009, inspired from B. Bleys
PES in perspective ? – GDP or Indicator for Sustainable Economic Welfare ?
Unemployment rates in the EMU
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
jan/00 jan/01 jan/02 jan/03 jan/04 jan/05 jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Belgium Ireland Spain Germany EMU Source: Datastream
PES in perspective ? – Diversity at EU level
PES in perspective ? – Diversity explained ?
Source : Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove – Fiscal policy, employment by age, and growth in OECD economies – Universiteit van Gent
PES in perspective ? – Diversity explained ?
Source : Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove – Fiscal policy, employment by age, and growth in OECD economies – Universiteit van Gent
PES in perspective ? – Diversity explained ? (Education)
CFWB
Source: Mc Kinsey
PES in perspective ? – Increasing importance of other actors ?
Quoted in Private Employement Agencies, temporary agency workers and their contributions to the labour market – ILO - 2009
PES in perspective ? – Increasing importance of other actors ?
Quoted in Private Employement Agencies, temporary agency workers and their contributions to the labour market – ILO - 2009
PES in perspective ? – Increasing importance of other instruments ?
Source : Nuria Rodriguez – Planas – Channels through which Public Employment Services & Small-business AssistancePrograms work – Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (based on data from Romania in 2000 – 2002)
PES in perspective ?1
PES under pressure ?2
Questions for PES ?3
EMU: PUBLIC DEBT (in % of GDP)European Central Bank figures
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
06 07 08 09 10 1105101520253035404550556065707580859095100
EIU forecast
Maastricht Limit
PES under pressure ? – Increasing public debts
EMU GOVERNMENT DEBT IN 2009 (% of GDP)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Austria Belgium Spain Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal
Maastricht Limit: 60%
PES under pressure ? – Diversity in public debts at EU level
EMU GOVERNMENT DEFICIT/SURPLUS IN 2009 (% of GDP)
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Belgium Spain France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal
Maastricht Limit
PES under pressure ? – Diversity in deficits
PES under pressure ? – Diversity in public spending (2007 – 2008)
Quoted in KPMG – Meeting the deficit challenge
PES under pressure ? – Diversity in age-related spending pressures
Projected risein spending
to 2030(% of GDP)
Source: IMF
Quoted in KPMG –Meeting the deficit challenge
PES under pressure ? – Diversity in public revenues (2007 – 2008)
Quoted in KPMG – Meeting the deficit challenge
PES under pressure ? – Need be more efficient ?
Question to Public Organizations : Are you radically rethinking your organization’s overall long term strategy to put it in a good position for the next decade ?
Source : KPMG – The wolf is at the door
PES in perspective ?1
PES under pressure ?2
Questions for PES ?3
Source : KPMG – The wolf is at the door
Question to Public Organizations : What do you plan to change as part of your long term strategy ?
Questions for PES ? – Where can PES go when taking into consideration the bigger picture ?
Can PESDo more
with less ?
Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?
Source : Alena Zukersteinova – What skills will Europe need and have in 2020 ? - Cedefop
Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?
Source : Alex Nunn, Tim Bickerstaffe & Ben Mitchell - For an International review of Performance management systems in Public Employment Services - UK Department for Work & Pensions
Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?
Source : ILO – Global employment trends for youth – August 2010
Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?
Source : ILO – Christine Evans-Klock on Ageingpopulation
Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?
Source : Nuria Rodriguez – Planas – Channels through which Public Employment Services & Small-business AssistancePrograms work – Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (based on data from Romania in 2000 – 2002)
Questions for PES ? – Should/can PES join forces with the school system ?
50 PISA points more leads to 0.9% additional GDP growth in a sustainable way
Source: Mc Kinsey
Questions for PES ? – Should PES centralize or decentralize ? What is the right balance ?
% of people > 18 ynot pursuing studies
in Brussels