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A Bakken Producer's Regional View on
Gas & NGL Markets
Michael Lutz
“This presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These projections and statements reflect the company’s current views with respect to future events. No assurance can be given, however, that these events will occur or that these projections will be achieved, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Any information and projections contained herein are not intended to be relied upon as advice, financial or otherwise.
This presentation contains general information about the topic being presented and has been prepared based on information available to the company, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions, projections or conclusions expressed herein. ”
Hess has a major presence in North Dakota
Tioga Gas Plant
30 Miles Acreage Holdings Gathering Systems Facilities
Tioga Rail Terminal
• Producing assets since 1950s
• Large captured oil resource – 750,000 net acres – Acquired Tracker Resources and
American Oil & Gas in 4Q 2010
• Tioga Gas Plant – 115 MMCFD growing to 250 MMCFD – 8 MPD NGL capacity (C3+) growing to 60MBD (C2+)
• Tioga Rail Terminal
– 30 MBD NGL loading – 200 rail car fleet (leased)
Tioga Gas Plant
Tioga Rail Terminal
2
Hess Tioga Gas Plant and Rail Terminal expansions
Gas Plant Post-Expansion Capacities • Gas processing: 250 MMCFD • NGL production: 2.5 MM gal/day (~ 60 MBD)
― C2 -1,260,000 gal/day (30 MBD) ― C3 – 777,000 gal/day (18.5 MBD) ― C4 – 332,000 gal/day (7.9 MBD) ― C5+ – 210,000 gal/day (5.0 MBD)
• NGL storage: 78 MBBLs ― C3 – 36 MBBL ― C4 – 18 MBBL ― C5+ - 24 MBBL
• Gas export capacity (design/Hess contracted) ― WBI – 35 MMCFD/5 MMCFD ― NB – 66 MMCFD/52 MMCFD ― Alliance – 120 MMCFD/50 MMCFD
NGL Rail Facility Capacities • NGLs delivered from TGP via 3 pipes • 16 loading racks (8 for C5+)
– 30 MBD capacity (12-hr shift) – 44 rail cars per day – Unit train every 2-3 days
• Track space for 250 NGL cars – Dedicated switching engine
• 200 NGL rail car fleet (leased)
3
Tioga Gas Plant
Tioga Rail Terminal
4
Hess Bakken gas & NGL transportation
Commercial Team Mission • Ensure Reliable Offtake
– Balance routes & provide redundancy – Manage volume uncertainty in production forecast
• Maximize Gas & NGL Value – Access multiple markets for each product – Create competition for services
• Seek third party business – Minimize plant ullage / maximize operating efficiency – Leverage economies of scale – Offer competitive netbacks
Transportation Strategy - Three Prongs
• Regional Pipelines – Optimize use of existing infrastructure
• Rail – Develop new, flexible capacity for long term transport
• Maintain and Expand Local Markets – Develop new local gas and NGL product demand – Gather wells via tie-in or trucking
North Dakota crude oil production forecast range
Source: North Dakota Oil & Gas Division, Dec 2012 5
Bakken gas composition & forecast range
•Typical Gas Oil Ratio – 1100 CF/bbl – Bakken GOR ranges between 500 and 1750 – Wellhead heat content ~1500 btu/cf
Oil Production (MBOPD) Residue Gas (MMCFD) NGL (MBPD)
600 386 174
900 580 261
1200 777 348
Residue Gas and NGL Processing Yield
C1 55%
C2 22%
C3 13%
C4 5%
C5+ 5%
Bakken Wellhead Gas Composition
•Pipeline Export Capacity – Residue Gas ~3.2 BCFD – NGLs ~260 MBD + truck & rail
6
Bakken gas & NGL regional export options •Gas Plant Facilities ― 900 MMCFD Existing ― 400 MMCFD Proposed
•Local Sales ― MDU ― Co-Gen/Other
•Rich Gas Export Facilities ― Alliance/Tioga ― Palermo/Prairie Rose ― Northern Border ― WBI
•Y Grade Export Facilities ― Oneok Bakken Pipeline ― Rail (McGregor, Ross) ― Enbridge (truck) ― Alliance (truck)
•Purity NGL Export Facilities ― Vantage Pipeline (Ethane) ― Cochin Pipeline (C4+) ― Rail (Tioga, Sidney) ― Truck (C3/C4/C5+)
Tioga
Vantage Oneok Cochin
Source: NDPA (amended)
Hess Gathering System
7
US NGL markets
Sarnia
Conway
Mont Belvieu ▲
Alberta
Tioga
Market factors: •Distance •Y-grade or purity
•Liquidity •Demand (product specific)
•Export
Ferndale ▲
Adamana ▲
Bumstead ▲
Philadelphia▲
Magnum ▲
Source: EIA (amended) 8
US NGL supply by component and source
9 Source: Bentek Energy, LLC - Market Call: North American NGLs, Jan 2013
10
LPG exports forecast to more than quadruple
Source: Bentek Energy, LLC - Market Call: North American NGLs, Jan 2013
US regional NGL production and demand (MMBD)
11
From Nat. Gas From Refineries Demand
Legend
Source: Bentek Energy, LLC - Market Call: North American NGLs, Jan 2013
US regional propane production and demand (MMBD)
12
Exports: 2012: 11 MBD 2015*: 11 MBD
Exports: 2012: 0 MBD 2015*: 0 MBD
Exports: 2012: 0 MBD 2015*: 0 MBD
Exports: 2012: 3 MBD 2015*: 25 MBD
Exports: 2012: 150 MBD 2015*: 304 MBD
From Nat. Gas From Refineries Demand
Legend
Source: Bentek Energy, LLC - Market Call: North American NGLs, Jan 2013
13
International propane demand and supply trends
Demand Supply
Legend
01020304050
2012 2013 2014 2015M
M T
onne
s EUROPE
01020304050
2012 2013 2014 2015
MM
Ton
nes MIDDLE EAST
01020304050
2012 2013 2014 2015
MM
Ton
nes ASIA
01020304050
2012 2013 2014 2015
MM
Ton
nes LATIN AMERICA
Source: IHS, “Recent Developments in International Supply and Demand of Propane, 2012”
14
US propane pricing diverging from international prices
Source: Bentek Energy, LLC - Market Call: North American NGLs, Jan 2013
15
International propane pricing trends
04080
120160200
2012 2013 2014
Pric
es (c
ents
/gal
) Houston - Japan (Panama)
Japan Landed Japan (Spot)
04080
120160200
2012 2013 2014Pr
ices
(cen
ts/g
al) Houston - Rotterdam
Rotterdam Landed N. Sea (Spot)
04080
120160200
2012 2013 2014
Pric
es (c
ents
/gal
) Yanbu vs. Mt. Belvieu
Yanbu (FOB) Mt. Belvieu
04080
120160200
2012 2013 2014
Pric
es (c
ents
/gal
) Houston - Brazil
Arg/BRZ Landed Mt. Belvieu
Source: IHS, “LPG Market Outlook, Jan 2013”
Potential North Dakota propane export netback prices
16
Assumptions: Platts LPGASWIRE Apr 2013 posted prices used for CIF rounded off to the nearest cent; Marine freight rates based on VLGC, proportioned by distance between origin and destination; rail fees per internal Hess estimates; assumes propane is processed to get it to export spec; Mt. Belvieu C3 price source: Bentek NGL Market Monitor Daily 4/8/2013
Propane @ $0.923/gal. minus T&F for Bakken producers is a netback of approximately $60.3/gal. sold in Mont Belvieu, Texas
Bakken gas processing value
Gas processing can improve overall wellhead netbacks by over 15% to the Producer for C3+
Ethane recovery requires economy of scale to extract, provided spreads support extraction
~ $4.0 billion annual processing margin at 1,200 MBOPD production forecast
Pricing assumptions: December 2012 averages. CLB prices Dec incl weekends from Argus; Gas $3.33/MMBtu and NGLs Mt. Belvieu non-TET; Composition Assumption: 1100 GOR, 11 gpm NGLs. Netbacks reflect market-based terms for gas processing and gathering, transport and frac fees
Flare/Truck Gather / C3+ Gather / C2+
Crude Oil
WTI 86.67 86.67 86.67 CLB Diff (3.40) (3.40) (3.40) T&G (7.25) (4.00) (4.00)
76.02 79.27 79.27
Natural Gas 0.00 1.65 1.15 NGLs 0.00 6.85 8.35
Total Netback 76.02 87.77 88.77
17
Gas flaring ~30% erodes value in North Dakota
Source: NDPA 18
Scope of Bakken infrastructure investment
• Tie-in costs per well ~$0.5 M – Meters and valves – Flow line to lease boundary / gathering line
• North Dakota Rig Count at 184
– Rig drills ~11 wells/year – 2024 wells/year
– >$1bn on well tie-ins per year
• NDIC projecting ~35,000 new wells over the next 18 – 20 years ― ~$17 B gathering investment
• Infrastructure challenges ― Changing rig schedules ― Right of way and permitting lead times ― Competition with drilling capital ― Pad drilling – early “peak” profiles vs. long term capacity needs
19
Hess & 3rd party gathering infrastructure
Hess Infrastructure
• Nessen (North/South)
• Red Sky (West)
• Goliath (East)
3rd Party Infrastructure
• Hiland (Stony Creek)
• Bear Tracker (Impact)
• Myrtle – Bakken Express
3rd Party Processing
• Little Knife – Petro-Hunt
• Buffalo Wallow – Oneok
• Murphy Creek – Oneok
• Goliath – Oneok
• Stony Creek – Hiland
• Myrtle – Bakken Express
Nessen
Goliath
Red SkyStony Creek
Impact
20
Conclusions
•Gas processing improves the overall net value stream
•Multiple export options now exist in region
•Regional market strong for C4+
•Propane will require export capacity growth to support production
•Ethane will be recovered as economics justify
•Gathering pipelines are the current system bottlenecks with flaring ~30%
21