8 Oct 2007by Pres Cutter1 PEEP PEEP PEEP PEEP PEEP PEEP

8 Oct 2007 by Pres Cutter 1

Ecosystem

1

Agriculture

Transportation

8

10

4

5

6

7

3

2

12

11

9 0

Goverment

Industry

Trade

Public Services

People

Community

Religion

Education

Living Things

PEEPPEEP

PEEPPEEP

PEEPPEEP

PEEPPEEP

PEEPPEEP

PEEPPEEP


The The PPeople,eople, their their EEducation,ducation, their their EEconomy,conomy,

their their PPolitics,olitics,

and theirand their

General WelfareGeneral Welfare patterns from apatterns from aKnowledge & Survival Benefits Knowledge & Survival Benefits (KSB)(KSB) Tool Box Tool Box

Applying Induction Cases on Complexity, Predicting, and Using Applying Induction Cases on Complexity, Predicting, and Using Effective Societal Self-Governance Information PerpetuallyEffective Societal Self-Governance Information Perpetually

in Pure Democratic Processes Promoting in Pure Democratic Processes Promoting Useful Cycles of LivesUseful Cycles of Lives

??With Dynamic MemoriesWith Dynamic Memories

Putting in Practice Rational Beliefs, Putting in Practice Rational Beliefs, Likelihoods, and Actions upLikelihoods, and Actions up

Front to Avoid Future BehavioralFront to Avoid Future BehavioralDegradations and Inconsistencies,Degradations and Inconsistencies,and to Overcoming Threats, Thusand to Overcoming Threats, Thus

Collectively Achieving Mutual Collectively Achieving Mutual BenefitsBenefits

With Tool-Box RenewalsWith Tool-Box Renewals

at at OurOur Future Future SurvivalSurvival Information & Information & ConsequencesConsequences

with the Mathematical & Behavioral with the Mathematical & Behavioral Sciences Sciences

PEEPPEEP


Improve Logic & Math Foundations With Redefined MeasuresImprove Logic & Math Foundations With Redefined Measuresof of Subjective & Objective EffectivenessSubjective & Objective Effectiveness

and Logical Equivalences. and Logical Equivalences.

SocietalSocietalThe State of Being of Workforces of Living Beings as Intended by NatureThe State of Being of Workforces of Living Beings as Intended by Nature

and Modified by Ones’ Kinds to Extend Survival.and Modified by Ones’ Kinds to Extend Survival.

Dynamic Memories Knowledge & Dynamic Memories Knowledge & General WelfareGeneral WelfareAbilities to Look Back, Look Around, and Look ForwardAbilities to Look Back, Look Around, and Look Forward

Realizing Rational Realizations Mutually.Realizing Rational Realizations Mutually.Public Good Among Beings, Guided by Memories Wrapped in Cooperative Public Good Among Beings, Guided by Memories Wrapped in Cooperative

Rational Behaviors, Sustained Without Suppressing Individual Self-Interests.Rational Behaviors, Sustained Without Suppressing Individual Self-Interests.

Self vs. Dictoral Behavioral Self vs. Dictoral Behavioral Control SciencesControl SciencesThe Wise Ones Welcome Rationally As Logically Precise.The Wise Ones Welcome Rationally As Logically Precise.

Very Few, With Great-Wisdom Knowledge, KnowVery Few, With Great-Wisdom Knowledge, KnowDegenerative Emotionalism Breeds Irrational Imperfectness Universally.Degenerative Emotionalism Breeds Irrational Imperfectness Universally.

RelationshipsRelationships:: Interdependency vs. Dependency vs. Interdependency vs. Dependency vs.

IndependencyIndependencyin in Social Survival InterrelationsSocial Survival Interrelations Up Front and Personnel Up Front and Personnel with the with the PeoplePeople


Measuring Causes & Effects,Measuring Causes & Effects,and the Multi-Directional Rates of Change of the Multi-and the Multi-Directional Rates of Change of the Multi-

Variables,Variables,

of Linked Societal Knowledge and of Linked Societal Knowledge and Dynamic General WelfareDynamic General Welfare

FrequentlyFrequently

Like Us, If You Know You Don’t Know,Like Us, If You Know You Don’t Know, We Welcome You to Assist the Solution of These Recurrent We Welcome You to Assist the Solution of These Recurrent

ProblemsProblemsThat Continually, Over the Centuries, to Sit On Our Door Steps? That Continually, Over the Centuries, to Sit On Our Door Steps?

Lets Lets PEEP Beyond Traditional PEEP Beyond Traditional Linear, Fixed Linear, Fixed Visions!Visions!by Presby Pres

aquiredknowledge

correction

a prior a posteriori.likelihoodprocess

Residue

Resources & Energy

by Presby Pres

Email: [email protected] or [email protected]

WorkWork


Why Do The Perceived Simple ThingsWhy Do The Perceived Simple ThingsBecome More Complex?Become More Complex?

“ “Complexity tends to increase as functions and modifications are Complexity tends to increase as functions and modifications are added to a system to break through limitations:added to a system to break through limitations: handle exceptional circumstances handle exceptional circumstances or, adapt to a world itself more complex. or, adapt to a world itself more complex. This applies, if you think about it, not just to technologies and This applies, if you think about it, not just to technologies and biological organisms but to ...biological organisms but to ... legal systems, tax codes, scientific theories, legal systems, tax codes, scientific theories, even successive releases of software programs. even successive releases of software programs. Where forces exists to weed out useless functions, increasing Where forces exists to weed out useless functions, increasing complexity delivers a smooth, efficient machine. Where they do not, it complexity delivers a smooth, efficient machine. Where they do not, it merely encumbers. ...merely encumbers. ... But when we seek it as an end or allow it to go unchecked, it But when we seek it as an end or allow it to go unchecked, it merely hampers, It is then that we need to discover new modes, the merely hampers, It is then that we need to discover new modes, the bold strokes, that bring fresh simplicity to our organizations, our bold strokes, that bring fresh simplicity to our organizations, our technology, our government, our lives.”technology, our government, our lives.”

by by W. Brian ArthurW. Brian Arthur, page 144, , page 144, SCIENTIFIC AMERICANSCIENTIFIC AMERICAN May 1993May 1993


This Presentation Is About This Presentation Is About EffectivelyEffectively Putting Putting

Our Our SSoocciieettyy In A Sustainable Condition To Face Our FutureIn A Sustainable Condition To Face Our Future

Confronting:Confronting:

High Quality in Concert with Optimum Use of Livable SpacesHigh Quality in Concert with Optimum Use of Livable Spaces

Perturbating Perturbating Total EffectivenessTotal Effectiveness in Our in Our General WelfareGeneral Welfare Distributions Distributions

The Evolving Environment, Ecology and OurselvesThe Evolving Environment, Ecology and Ourselves

Efficient Utilization of Resources, Energy & SpacesEfficient Utilization of Resources, Energy & Spaces

And, Gleeful Hugs Among And, Gleeful Hugs Among Interdependent Interdependent PeoplePeopleUsing Honored, Multi-Fancied Using Honored, Multi-Fancied Knowledge Transfer ProcessesKnowledge Transfer Processes

Respect of Ethics, Morality & CulturesRespect of Ethics, Morality & Cultures


Make Our Mission Real!Make Our Mission Real!We, The People

of the United States,In Order to

1. Form a More Perfect Union,More Perfect Union,2. Establish Justice,Justice,3. Insure Tranquility,Tranquility,

4. Provide for Common Defense,Common Defense, 5. Promote The The General Welfare,General Welfare,

and,6. Secure the

Blessings of Liberty to Ourselves and Our PosterityBlessings of Liberty to Ourselves and Our Posterity,

7. Do Ordain and Establish this Constitutionfor

The United States of The United States of America.America.

The Preamble to the Constitution of the United StatesApproved 1787-1789


For R&D of Existing and New Commercial For R&D of Existing and New Commercial FacilitesFacilites

People SafetyPeople SafetyLaws, Codes and Laws, Codes and

RegulationsRegulations

Life Safety CodeLife Safety CodeHandbookHandbook

TH9445.P8 L5 2003TH9445.P8 L5 2003

The Codes Guide Book for The Codes Guide Book for InteriorsInteriors

FK5701.H37 2001FK5701.H37 2001

Building CodeBuilding Codeof New York Stateof New York State

KFN5035.A25 2002KFN5035.A25 2002

Occupational Safety & Health Occupational Safety & Health StandardsStandards

www.osha.govwww.osha.gov

Also Refer to Federal Register Vol. 68, No. 124 Friday, June 27 2003 Notice ofAlso Refer to Federal Register Vol. 68, No. 124 Friday, June 27 2003 Notice ofOffice of Management and Budget

Compliance Assistance Resources & Points of Contact Available to Small Businesses

at at www.sba.gov/adval/laws/resources.pdfwww.sba.gov/adval/laws/resources.pdf

Building Materials Evaluation Handbook TA410.W49 1984Structural Design for Fire Safety (with Worked Problems) TH1065.B89 2001

Note: A Revision to NY State Building Codes was Due for Publication in 2006!

NY State Agency Rules and RegulationsNY State Agency Rules and Regulations

www.gov.state.ny.us/Main_GORR_Pages/Reg_Guide.html

And Where IsAnd Where Is Charles E. JohnsonCharles E. Johnson?? the past CFO at EPA, the past CFO at EPA, the author ofthe author of

Useful Life Useful Life Financing of Financing of EnvironmentalEnvironmental Facilities Facilitieswww.epa.gov/efinpae/efab/usefullifeletter.pdfwww.epa.gov/efinpae/efab/usefullifeletter.pdf


also refer toNew York State

Green Building Improvementand

Energy Smart Loan Programat

www.serda.org/loanfund/appkitcommerical.pdf

GreenGreenNew and Renewal Construction ofNew and Renewal Construction of

Industrial and Commercial Properties Industrial and Commercial Properties (and the Operational Functions)(and the Operational Functions)

Do Web Search Concerning theDo Web Search Concerning theComprehensive Standards RequirementsComprehensive Standards Requirements

LEEDLEEDLLeadership in eadership in EEnergy and nergy and EEnvironmental nvironmental DDesign and Building Programsesign and Building Programs

The National Building Standards Effective 2007 and Thereafter byThe National Building Standards Effective 2007 and Thereafter by

U. S. Green Building CouncilU. S. Green Building Council www.usgbc.org www.usgbc.org


How To See How To See InterdependentInterdependentQuality of Life of Viable Quality of Life of Viable

OperationsOperations

Communal BenefitsCommunal Benefits

Useful LifeUseful Life

AcceptableAcceptableReturns on Capital Returns on Capital InvestmentsInvestments

TheThe UniversalUniversal QoL QoL MeasuresMeasuresof A Management’s Vision of an of A Management’s Vision of an

InvestmentInvestment

Over Long-Term Future TimesOver Long-Term Future Times ... With Variable Horizons!... With Variable Horizons!

ThreatsHuman Behavior

BacteriaCatastrophes Obsolescence

Public Epistemological DemandsPublic Epistemological DemandsApplication of Public Philosophical Application of Public Philosophical

Knowledge Managing Events Knowledge Managing Events Directions & Rates of ChangeDirections & Rates of Change

SpinoffsSpinoffs

PayoffsPayoffs

PerformancePerformance

Events Causes & EffectivenessEvents Causes & Effectiveness

UtilizationUtilization

Safety of Human Lives & their FacilitiesSafety of Human Lives & their Facilities

ResourcesResources

ResidueResidue


The The Ten-Step Phase I Performance-Based, Ten-Step Phase I Performance-Based, Operations Research & Feasibility,Operations Research & Feasibility,

Study ProcessStudy Process1. Integrate

Standard & Unique O&M Goals

2. DevelopO&M

Objectives

3. FinalizeO&M

Criteria

4. Develop4. DevelopAesthetics &

Utilization

Local Codes, Laws, & Regulations

5. Propose5. ProposeFunctional

Design Concepts

NationalLife Safety Codes

6. Develop6. DevelopQuality Mgm't Assumptions

OccupancySOM Scenario

Life CharacteristicsLCW Benefits & Costs

Legal Issues

7. Refine7. RefineSafety Factors,& Verification

Methods &Functional Functional Requirements Requirements

SpecificationsSpecifications

8. Accept

9. Correct9. CorrectConceptual DifferencesConceptual DifferencesIn-Among AlternativesIn-Among Alternatives

Merge Strategic Findings ofMerge Strategic Findings of Feasible Alternatives Research Feasible Alternatives Research

TasksTasks

Alternatives Feedback Alternatives Feedback

A PriorA Prior

O&M … Operations & MaintenanceO&M … Operations & Maintenance

SOM … Safety, Operations, MaintenanceSOM … Safety, Operations, Maintenance

LCW … Life Cycle WAG (Wild Ass Guess)LCW … Life Cycle WAG (Wild Ass Guess)

Major MarcoMajor MarcoCriteriaCriteria

Many Micro ElementsMany Micro Elements

10. Proceed with Assembling Details ofThe Functional Requirements SpecificationsThe Functional Requirements Specifications,

with Detail with Detail Design-and-Build-to-Cost Bid Package


And the KeyAnd the Key – Population Function, Form & Fit ... An Example: – Population Function, Form & Fit ... An Example:

How-When A Local Economy Has Recovered?How-When A Local Economy Has Recovered?Assumed 4-Year Intervals Timeline:

The Local Economy Improves Positively and Socially Equally,

Aggratate Population 2007 Forecast for Buffalo NYTrendline = y = -0.0003x6 + 0.0273x5 - 0.8943x4 + 13.937x3 - 101.42x2 + 265.58x + 329.55 Correlation Cofficent = R2 = 0.9809

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1940 '50 '70 '80 '90 2000 '04 '08 '12 '16 2020 '24 '28 '32 '36 2040 '44 '48 '52 '56 2060 '64 ... ... ... 2xyz ...

Year

Pop

ula

tion

x10

00

And, The Bleeding of the Local Population Has Been Healed.If the Trend Does Not Turn Up, It Stabilizes or Continue Downwards.

We Are Here at 2008We Are Here at 2008

The Question Is ... How Can Acceptable, Connected, Growth Patterns

Be Generated and Sustained Over Very Long PeriodsWithin Fundamental Bounds of Our Constitutional Principles?

This is an incremented 4-year scale, starting in 1940 running out to years 2064, and beyond to 2xyz

The Vision – Our Posterior Benefits’ Horizon!

Roots of the trendline equation, at the top of the chart, provide locations for scheduling critical milestones.

Assessment Tools: Project, Office, VB StudioThink You Bill

Economic ObjectivesEconomic Objectives

Fiscal Outcomes MilepostsFiscal Outcomes Mileposts


Program, 25-Time Intervals to Breakeven,

Cumulative Life-Cycle Effects

y = -3E-05x6 + 0.0025x5 - 0.079x4 + 1.1113x3 - 5.8935x2 + 1.009x + 4.4089

R2 = 0.9758

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Program Time Interval Measure

Pro

gram

Eff

ects

Mea

sure

Start R&D Start R&D InvestmenInvestmentsts

Turn Around & Turn Around & O&M Phase-InO&M Phase-In

O&M Recovery

±Areas Under ±Areas Under Trendline Are Equal Trendline Are Equal

WhenWhenLife-Cycle Effects Life-Cycle Effects

BreakevenBreakeven(or Total Payback)(or Total Payback)is at 25is at 25thth Interval Interval

A PredictiveA PredictiveMeasure of Measure of AggregateAggregateTrends of Trends of

Causes-EffectsCauses-Effects

And ... A Life-Cycle Example:And ... A Life-Cycle Example:How-When Will The Program Recover?How-When Will The Program Recover?

Not With Standing The Trade-Off Alternative Selected..


An Example Utilization Planning MatrixAn Example Utilization Planning MatrixFunction Designations and Groupings Are Problem Dependent.Function Designations and Groupings Are Problem Dependent.

Apply Any Cell Value, Row Sum, Column Sum or Group SumApply Any Cell Value, Row Sum, Column Sum or Group SumAs Applicable to the Discussion.As Applicable to the Discussion.

Day-Hours 24 20 16 12 10 8 6 4

Monthly 1/7 5/42 2/21 1/14 5/84 1/21 1/28 1/42 Use Factors

(168 hr)

Week Days R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 D C J

Mon 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/28 0 0 23/84 23/171 13.45%

Tue 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/28 1/28 0 13/42 26/171 15.20%

Wed 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/42 5/14 10/57 17.54%

Thu 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/14 1/21 1/42 8/21 32/171 18.71%

Fri 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 0 2/21 1/14 5/84 5/12 35/171 20.47%

Sat 0 0 1/21 0 0 5/84 1/21 1/14 19/84 1/9 11.11%

Sun 0 0 0 0 0 1/21 0 1/42 1/14 2/57 3.51%

Columns 5/21 5/21 2/7 5/21 4/21 11/28 1/4 17/84 2 1/28 1 100.00%

Groups

Ratio Total 203.57%

Columns 11.70% 11.70% 14.04% 11.70% 9.36% 19.30% 12.28% 9.94%

Groups

Grand Total

71.43% 84.52%

2 1/28

10/21 5/7 71/84

100.00%

Enter Appropriate Use Factors Above Into Applicable Functional Areas Cells

Normalized Column & Grouped Functional Percentages

Utilization Planning Matrix

Normalized Ratios, and %

35.09% 41.52%23.39%

47.62%

Daily Account Row Sums,


An OverviewAn Overviewof Minimums of theof Minimums of theGood-Things-in-LifeGood-Things-in-Life

Quality of EmploymentQuality of Employment

Quality of Tax Payments Quality of Tax Payments

Quality of UtilizationQuality of Utilization

Quality of Useful Life Benefits Quality of Useful Life Benefits

Quality of Responsibility to Survival ObligationsQuality of Responsibility to Survival Obligations

Public EnjoymentPublic Enjoyment


Universal Measures of Natural Universal Measures of Natural and Manmade Eventsand Manmade Events

The Success or Failure of Causes and EffectsThe Success or Failure of Causes and EffectsProbability (Success) = p(t,n) ... where 0 is less than p(t,n) is less than 1.Probability (Success) = p(t,n) ... where 0 is less than p(t,n) is less than 1.

Probability (Failure)Probability (Failure) = 1 – p(t,n) = 1 – p(t,n) = q(t,n)= q(t,n) = = Probability (Accumulated Incipient

Causes of Hazards at Past Times t – n Exceeds Failure Threshold at Present Time t).

Probability (At time t, Event n is a Success)Probability (At time t, Event n is a Success) = Prob(En) = Prob(p(t,n)), = Prob(En) = Prob(p(t,n)),

= p(t,n) {Sum(q(0,0) + q(1,1) + q(2,2) += p(t,n) {Sum(q(0,0) + q(1,1) + q(2,2) + ... ... + + q(t,n)q(t,n) + + ... ... Infinity)},Infinity)},

= p(t,n) / (1 – q(t,n)= p(t,n) / (1 – q(t,n),,

in its expanded power series format, and iin its expanded power series format, and its condensed geometric formts condensed geometric form..

It can be shown there exists simple, direct relationships between the above It can be shown there exists simple, direct relationships between the above forms and that obtained with the Bayesian Cumulative Recursion method, forms and that obtained with the Bayesian Cumulative Recursion method, and what ever and what ever System Effectiveness System Effectiveness measures may be used.measures may be used.


There are There are Predictive & Auditable Measures of Beneficial Effectiveness. Measures of Beneficial Effectiveness. Given Sets ofGiven Sets of

Live Live Perpetual-Motion, Self-Organizing Local Societal Ensembles, Our Local Societal Ensembles, Our Interests are: Interests are: 1.1. Mission Mission Effectiveness Effectiveness in the Present of in the Present of NoiseNoise, ,

Uncertainty (Entropy) and OrderUncertainty (Entropy) and Order

2.2. Probability of Probability of Not FailingNot Failing Before Future TimeBefore Future Time t tmm,,

3.3. Probability of Probability of Failure Failure in a in a Future Time IntervalFuture Time Interval t tmm to to ttm+1m+1 , ,

4.4. Probability of Probability of Surviving Surviving Beyond Beyond Future Time Future Time ttnn , , and ...and ...

5.5. Given Given Survival Survival Up to tUp to tnn , the , the Propensity to Fail Propensity to Fail in in Next Next Interval Interval ttnn to t to tn+1n+1. .

6.6. Availability of Resources Availability of Resources Before, During a Future & Before, During a Future & Out Past the HorizonOut Past the Horizon t tn+1n+1..

7.7. Availability of Effective and TimelyAvailability of Effective and Timely Preventive,Preventive, and and Corrective, Actions.Corrective, Actions.

8.8. Given All the Above,Given All the Above, Are the Ensembles of Local Are the Ensembles of Local SocietiesSocieties Enjoying Enjoying Life, Life, and Assurances of Well Being with Beneficial and Assurances of Well Being with Beneficial Solutions to SocietaSolutions to Societal Problemsl Problems??..

Useful Useful Quality-of-LifeQuality-of-Life Out-Look Out-Look

Causes-Effects of Hazards and Incipient Failures

The Problem ... Nobody Wont to Get into The Problem ... Nobody Wont to Get into PredictingPredicting Factual Reliability of Our Factual Reliability of Our Lives & Their Events Except Lives & Their Events Except Actuaries Actuaries and Some and Some Quality Assurance Quality Assurance

EngineerEngineerss! The Former Wont Talk, and the Latter are Misdirected.The Former Wont Talk, and the Latter are Misdirected.

Quality PropertiesQuality Properties2 – 7 Are Ignored2 – 7 Are Ignored

by Experts &by Experts &Politicians. Politicians.

They Are Not They Are Not EquippedEquippedto Handleto Handle

Very Large Very Large PredictivePredictiveData SetsData Sets


Actuaries ... the life realities of live things,Actuaries ... the life realities of live things,

Quality Assurance Reliability Engineers ... the life realities of physical things,Quality Assurance Reliability Engineers ... the life realities of physical things,

Apply the Apply the Operations ResearchOperations Research specialists specialistsskills of the following disciplinesskills of the following disciplines;;

to every day and future problem solving, then the absolute values to every day and future problem solving, then the absolute values and rates of changes, of total effects of operational failures depicted and rates of changes, of total effects of operational failures depicted on the previous slide, can be predicted with at least 60% confidence on the previous slide, can be predicted with at least 60% confidence

and measured within even a higher minimum level to and measured within even a higher minimum level to drastically reduce chance of failuredrastically reduce chance of failure

and level of poor quality.and level of poor quality.

Reliability Prediction of FailuresReliability Prediction of Failuresandand

Related Quality of Life ParametersRelated Quality of Life Parameters


Uncomplicated Uncomplicated SimulationSimulation

Outcome of Useful Life Outcome of Useful Life of Assetof Assetss

Measure Age (yrs) DifferenceRelative

Effectiveness

Useful L ife

Effectiveness

Beginning of Maturity 20 20 15% 15%

End of Maturity 114 94 30% 85%

End of L ife 134 20 15% 100%

Sums 134 60% 25%

Let Beginning of Maturity = The Program Breakeven Payoff,Let Beginning of Maturity = The Program Breakeven Payoff, and End of Life = the Horizon 2xyz Years, and End of Life = the Horizon 2xyz Years,

then End of Maturity is thethen End of Maturity is theBeginning of a Non-Recoverable Downturn.Beginning of a Non-Recoverable Downturn.

Given the Beginning of Maturity & End of Life Adjust End of Maturity Useful Life Effectiveness 80% = Given the Beginning of Maturity & End of Life Adjust End of Maturity Useful Life Effectiveness 80% = Relative Effectiveness Sum 80% Which Must Be In theRelative Effectiveness Sum 80% Which Must Be In the Range of Utilization Intersects 65-87% Range of Utilization Intersects 65-87%..

Note the Note the Age Differences Age Differences Are Balanced at Are Balanced at 24-7224-72-24 Yrs for Long-Term Planning-24 Yrs for Long-Term Planning Horizon at 129 Yrs Horizon at 129 Yrs..


Our SocietyOur Society

Self-GovernanceSelf-Governance

We The People & Our PosteriorWe The People & Our Posterior

Our EconomyOur Economy

Our Collective-Behaviors & JusticeOur Collective-Behaviors & Justice

Our DefenseOur Defense

Our Safety & HealthOur Safety & Health

Our Education SystemOur Education System

Our Industries & CommerceOur Industries & CommerceAnd What And What Does It All Does It All

Mean?Mean?

They All Are They All Are Linked Linked

FunctionsFunctions

Fit in the Thick of Things ...Fit in the Thick of Things ...

... To Industrially Promote Continued ... To Industrially Promote Continued EducationEducation

Thus Enhancing Our Economy & OurselvesThus Enhancing Our Economy & Ourselves

InInPerpetualPerpetual

MotionMotion

All Linked Together with OurAll Linked Together with Our


The Human Species Biomass a The Human Species Biomass a Graphical-Venn NetworkGraphical-Venn Network With Dynamically With Dynamically LinkedLinked Categorized Categorized Workplace NodesWorkplace Nodes

BiosphereBiosphereEcosystemEcosystem

AgricultureAgriculture

Household

TransportationTransportation

IndustryIndustryEducationEducation

Trade &Trade &CommerceCommerce

ReligionReligion

JusticeJustice

Public Public ServiceService

GovernmentGovernment

0. Dynamically0. DynamicallyDistributedDistributed

PeoplePeoplewith Mutuallywith Mutually

InterdependentInterdependentBehaviorsBehaviors

The The General Welfare General Welfare of this Biomass is Equal to the of this Biomass is Equal to the Total Effectiveness of SurvivalTotal Effectiveness of Survival of All Elements. of All Elements.For Local & Global Visualization of Intervening Causes & Effects Look at All Work ProcessesFor Local & Global Visualization of Intervening Causes & Effects Look at All Work Processes

Out in the Future Out in the Future Beyond The People’s VisionBeyond The People’s Vision

RankRank6-126-12

RankRank1-61-6

Here Are 13 Societal Workplaces Coevolving Energetically Linked In Time, andLogically Logically In Polynomial, Boolean, Bayesian, Markovan, Social and Threat In Polynomial, Boolean, Bayesian, Markovan, Social and Threat

Inoculated Networks.Inoculated Networks.

There are No Independent Agents in this Biomass


Super Set of Intersections (Super Set of Intersections (€€), with Their Complements (), with Their Complements (1 – 1 – €€),),Graphical-Venn Network Graphical-Venn Network Biomass Categories Biomass Categories Unified Unified Under a Common Under a Common Dynamic Dynamic Mission for SurvivalMission for Survival

BiosphereBiosphereEcosystemEcosystem

AgricultureAgriculture

Household

TransportationTransportation

IndustryIndustryEducationEducation

Trade &Trade &CommerceCommerce

ReligionReligion

JusticeJustice

Public Public ServiceService

GovernmentGovernment

PeopleDifferent Skills

EverywhereDifferent Situations

Different Times.

PEEP = PEEP = Total MissionEffectiveness

= Emission ==Function (S, βEα)

PEEPPEEP = = Power Series ExpansionPower Series Expansion of of βEα / (1 – βEα) in S Over Time Out to Horizonand βEα is the Super Product of the Effectiveness of One & All Workplace Categories

S, S, αα and and ββ are Space Shape with Form and Fit Parameters are Space Shape with Form and Fit Parameters

Totally Interlocked Categories;Totally Interlocked Categories; A Super Set =A Super Set = Product Product ((βEα ))ii for i = 0, 1, 2, ..., 12 for i = 0, 1, 2, ..., 12

All for All for OneOne

One forOne forAllAll


Survival Rank K

Category

0 60% 40% The People 60.00% 40.00%1 53% 47% Biosphere 62.85% 37.15%

2 60% 40% Ecosystem 71.73% 28.27%

3 63% 37% Agriculture 81.20% 18.80%

4 43% 57% Household 76.52% 23.48%5 69% 31% Transportation 87.88% 12.12%

6 52% 48% Industry 88.71% 11.29%

7 70% 30% Education 94.83% 5.17%8 13% 87% Trade & Commerce 73.26% 26.74%

9 63% 37% Religion 82.35% 17.65%

10 32% 68% Justice 68.71% 31.29%11 77% 23% Public Service 88.02% 11.98%

12 24% 76% Government 69.89% 30.11%Averages = Sum / (N-1)

52% 48% Averages differences -18.31% 18.31%

Effectiveness a Prior Ratios

Cumulative Recursion Posterior Ratios

Bayesian Recursion Outcome - An Example

A-Prior Initial-Conditions Most Likelihood Categories

Posterior Recursive Categories

Total Effectiveness

The SuperThe Super Product Product ββEEαα of Prior Ratios (E, 1-E) of Prior Ratios (E, 1-E), Produced From Same , Produced From Same Prior Prior and and Likelihood Likelihood Causes Causes Is Identical to the Bayesian Prediction of Posterior Is Identical to the Bayesian Prediction of Posterior Total EffectivenessTotal Effectiveness. .

Bayesian Predicted Bayesian Predicted Total EffectivenessTotal Effectiveness and the Super and the Super Product Product ββEEαα Are Identical Results.Are Identical Results.

The InterdependentThe InterdependentPattern Elements:Pattern Elements:

SequentialSequentialBayesian PredictionsBayesian Predictions

on K (1 -12)on K (1 -12)Producing a Producing a

Distribution, ofDistribution, of Relative Contributions, Relative Contributions,

of Rankedof RankedCategorical OutcomesCategorical Outcomes

a Priora PriorData Dependency Data Dependency

Ranked Ranked Inaccordance with Inaccordance with Survival LikelihoodSurvival Likelihood

PatternsPatterns

EEColumnsColumns

Not ENot EComplementComplement

ColumnsColumns

Wow ...Wow ...Refer toRefer toPreviousPrevious

Slide.Slide.

Is Not the Is Not the Intersection Intersection

of All 13 of All 13 Venn-NetVenn-NetFunctionsFunctionsthe Samethe SameProduct Product

ββEEαα ??

Here, Recurrent Here, Recurrent People’s Self-Governance People’s Self-Governance Gain = 9.78%. Gain = 9.78%. Objectively Distribute Objectively Distribute Criterion Criterion (0, + or – ) Gain Down (0, + or – ) Gain Down Link. Receive New Data Link. Receive New Data SetSetand Repeat. and Repeat.


Examples of Interdependent General Examples of Interdependent General WelfareWelfare

Bayesian Future Tine & Rank Bayesian Future Tine & Rank PatternsPatterns

The Construct of Cause-Effect Of Class Status The Construct of Cause-Effect Of Class Status for Analysis of Patternsfor Analysis of PatternsOne Pass One Pass (1x)(1x) Analyses Analyses

1.1. One Bayesian Pass with Raw Categorical Data As Depicted on Previous SlideOne Bayesian Pass with Raw Categorical Data As Depicted on Previous Slide2.2. Verify Expected Posterior Outcome per Slide #22 When Nearly Equality Verify Expected Posterior Outcome per Slide #22 When Nearly Equality

Prior Likelihoods 1 to 12 are Also in the Range Prior Likelihoods 1 to 12 are Also in the Range

Multiple Passes AnalysesMultiple Passes Analyses3.3. Change Individual Likelihoods to Prior One-at-a-Time In Ranked Place Change Individual Likelihoods to Prior One-at-a-Time In Ranked Place (12x) (12x)

4.4. Change All Posterior Likelihoods to Prior Likelihoods in Ranked Place Change All Posterior Likelihoods to Prior Likelihoods in Ranked Place (?x)(?x)

5. 5. Repeat Step 3 with Sorted Middle Likelihood Categories 1 – 11 (Repeat Step 3 with Sorted Middle Likelihood Categories 1 – 11 (2x)2x) 6.6. As the a Prior, Let Government, and Middle Categories, Dictate People Lives. As the a Prior, Let Government, and Middle Categories, Dictate People Lives.

Switch Categories 0 and 12 Prior Ranking and Repeat Switch Categories 0 and 12 Prior Ranking and RepeatAny or All of Steps 3, 4 and 5 Any or All of Steps 3, 4 and 5 (?x)(?x)


The Pure DemocraticThe Pure DemocraticGeneral-Welfare PracticesGeneral-Welfare Practices

By their very evolving nature, relationships and By their very evolving nature, relationships and influencesinfluences

in feedback structured systems are highly in feedback structured systems are highly variable.variable.

Therefore, the transit statesTherefore, the transit statesof living beings in measurable societal domains,of living beings in measurable societal domains,

and ranges (greater than zero but less than unity),and ranges (greater than zero but less than unity),with one- or- many-to-none, one-to-one, one-to-many,with one- or- many-to-none, one-to-one, one-to-many,many-to-many and many-to-one directional changes,many-to-many and many-to-one directional changes,

and time rate of changes, in interrelationshipsand time rate of changes, in interrelationshipsthat are direct functions of their interdependences.that are direct functions of their interdependences.

The real Societal domains, and ranges, are all thoseThe real Societal domains, and ranges, are all thoseplaces and states of being at times where the livingplaces and states of being at times where the livingexist in the recurrent birth, life and death processesexist in the recurrent birth, life and death processes

under natural and self imposed conditions.under natural and self imposed conditions.


The Pure Democratic General-Welfare,The Pure Democratic General-Welfare,Cloaked in Arrow-of-Time Fluid PatternsCloaked in Arrow-of-Time Fluid Patterns

Natural & Self ImposedNatural & Self ImposedEnvironmental-Conditions DomainEnvironmental-Conditions Domain(Interdependent Functions, Arbitrary Form, (Interdependent Functions, Arbitrary Form,

Universal Fit)Universal Fit)

Past Past TimeTime

Future Time Future Time Prior (tn-1)Look-Far-Ahead,Look-Far-Ahead,

Birth – Life - Death Birth – Life - Death Processes (tProcesses (tnn))

Posterior (tn+1)

Quality of LifeQuality of LifeFailures Corrections (tFailures Corrections (tnn))

& Entropy& Entropy

CulturalInterdependency Loop

WorkTransit State

Loop

with Multi-Channel Feedforward & Feedback Control ofwith Multi-Channel Feedforward & Feedback Control ofOur Posterior’s SurvivalOur Posterior’s Survival

Accept CriterionAccept Criterion

Densely Mixed Joint Distribution Functions Are Universal In Life!

ResourcesResources ResidueResidue

Biosphere SurfaceBiosphere Surface

EnergyEnergy

EntropyEntropy

SpaceSpace

HeatHeat

Ecosystem

1

Agriculture

Transportation

8

10

4

5

6

7

3

2

12

11

9 0

Goverment

Industry

Trade

Public Services

People

Community

Religion

Education

Living Things

Multi-Nodes &Multi-Nodes &InformationInformation

LinksLinks


Measure Density-Growth-Decline, Measure Density-Growth-Decline, of Societal Lives of Societal Lives Dynamic Dynamic Changes Changes and Perpetual Turnovers,and Perpetual Turnovers, of Self-Organizing Beingsof Self-Organizing Beings

I

III

II

IV

V

VI

The Normalized Domain of Societal Ranges of Life Infused The Normalized Domain of Societal Ranges of Life Infused DynamicallyDynamically

Within Four of Six Regions I – VI with Densities Decreasing Within Four of Six Regions I – VI with Densities Decreasing Outwardly.Outwardly.

Highly Interdependent Variables In Positive Correlated Highly Interdependent Variables In Positive Correlated Distributions.Distributions.

0,0 ½, 0 1, 0

1, ½

1, 10, 1 ½, 1

0, ½The Ideal,The Ideal,

Study State,Study State, Total Total

Effectiveness (E)Effectiveness (E)TrendlineTrendlinewith & withwith & with

Quality ControlQuality Control

SphericalSphericalFuzzy BoundariesFuzzy Boundaries

Why This Fuzziness?

Because of theAggregate

Causes-Effects Uncertainties of a

Multitude of Uncertainties of Current Events!.

The Prolate Spherical Volume

Is 4/3πab2

Fluctuations, Ride Real Trajectories,

inin and betweenbetweenFuzzy RegionsDepending on

Their TimeChanges in,Changes in,

and the LaggingQuality Control of, Control of,

Total Effectiveness (E)Total Effectiveness (E).

..

The 50-50Flip-Flop, Maximum

Uncertainty Point

SurvivalSurvival General Welfare

Available Managing Future Realizations

Disaster General Welfare Not

Available Region

CW Turnovers

CCW Turnovers

Strong InterdependencesStrong Interdependences

WeakInterdependences

Weak InterdependencesWeak Interdependences

StrongStrongInterdependencesInterdependences


Entropy a Entropy a Function of E Function of E

and Not E and Not E (Uncertainty)(Uncertainty)

Not ENot E


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

80

1020

30

40

45

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

135

140

150160

170180

190200

210

220

225

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340350

360

Boundary Degrees

The Dynamic, Evolving and Rotated,Lemniscate-of-Bernoulli Field Solution Trace Overlay

Capitalist’s Globalization of Economic Categorical Densities

Upper RegionUpper Region

Middle RegionMiddle RegionCenteredCentered

Around theAround the50-5050-50

Unstable PointUnstable Point

Lower RegionLower Region

The Major,The Major,Variable Radial (R),Variable Radial (R),

Vector TracesVector Traces Out The Solution Out The Solution

BoundaryBoundaryMeasured inMeasured in

0 to n0 to nArbitrary Units (U)Arbitrary Units (U)

In The 1In The 1stst and 3 and 3rdrd

SegregatedSegregatedQuarter-Sectors.Quarter-Sectors.

Maximum,Maximum,100%, Radial length100%, Radial length

is reached atis reached at45 deg and 225 deg45 deg and 225 deg

angles.angles.

For 0 to 360 in 10 (or 5) degree steps, Radial Vector equals For 0 to 360 in 10 (or 5) degree steps, Radial Vector equals

Square-Root (n USquare-Root (n U22 times Sin(2 times Sin(2 ππ / 180))./ 180)).

Total AreaTotal Areaof Both Loopsof Both Loops

= 2 U = 2 U22

plus that of the plus that of the EllipseEllipse

= = ππ a abba = lengtha = lengthb = widthb = width

RRmax max = U= U

RRmax max = U= U


E – Total Effectiveness =E – Total Effectiveness =f (Utilization, Performance,f (Utilization, Performance,

Enjoyment)Enjoyment)

R –

Rel

iab

ility

R

– R

elia

bili

ty

M – Maintainability

M – Maintainability

The Eternal Blossom SeedThe Eternal Blossom SeedA 3-D ( x-y-z ) Octal-Unit Cube of the Societal A 3-D ( x-y-z ) Octal-Unit Cube of the Societal

Normalized SpaceNormalized Space

From this Octal Unit Cube Volume (2E)(2R)(2M), and with reference to the middle From this Octal Unit Cube Volume (2E)(2R)(2M), and with reference to the middle plane of intersections with 50-50-50 center, we explode out the surface:plane of intersections with 50-50-50 center, we explode out the surface:

S = K [ L / (1 – (1 – E)(1 – R)( 1 – M))]S = K [ L / (1 – (1 – E)(1 – R)( 1 – M))]

0 0 ≤ E ≤ E ≤ 1 0 ≤ R ≤ 1 0 ≤ M ≤ 1 0 ≤ L ≤ 1 0 < K < ≤ 1 0 ≤ R ≤ 1 0 ≤ M ≤ 1 0 ≤ L ≤ 1 0 < K < ∞∞

L – Logistic Support ResourcesL – Logistic Support Resourcescentered at 50-50-50 pointcentered at 50-50-50 point

Abstract Topology Abstract Topology & Geometry and & Geometry and the Real Spacethe Real Space

“Space is the universal form of “Space is the universal form of the properties of existence, ..., the properties of existence, ...,

consequently, when the problem consequently, when the problem of the properties of space is of the properties of space is

raised, no domain of facts can raised, no domain of facts can be separated artificially.”be separated artificially.”

Refer toRefer to

MathematicsMathematicsVolume IIIVolume III

IIts Contents, ts Contents, Methods, and Methods, and

MeaningsMeaningsbyby

Aleksandrov, Aleksandrov, KolmogorovKolmogorov

andand

Lavrent’evLavrent’ev

MIT Press 1963

The Complement of E Translates into {R, M, L} ResourcesThe Complement of E Translates into {R, M, L} Resources


The Societal Eternal BlossomThe Societal Eternal BlossomSprouted From Utilization, Reliability and Logistic Resources Seed Sprouted From Utilization, Reliability and Logistic Resources Seed

MeasuresMeasures

There are two There are two asynchronous oscillating asynchronous oscillating

points on this forward points on this forward

edge; one at edge; one at ⅓(0,1)⅓(0,1) and and the other at ½ (0, the other at ½ (0, ± Inf.)± Inf.)


Causes and Effects of Faults In

Urban Adaptive Economic PoliciesPolicies

1. Policies should issues insight of the Entropy, Growth and Decline 1. Policies should issues insight of the Entropy, Growth and Decline potentials of the population. It all starts with Population and Land Use potentials of the population. It all starts with Population and Land Use Capacities. Followed with societal benefits, and then capital realizations.Capacities. Followed with societal benefits, and then capital realizations.

2. There is no such thing as a stable population; only changes and 2. There is no such thing as a stable population; only changes and variations. Thus, there are many situated patterns of dispersion.variations. Thus, there are many situated patterns of dispersion.

3. There is no clearly defined use of our investments in human capital. 3. There is no clearly defined use of our investments in human capital. There is still an overly constricted use of “just jobs or labor” whose There is still an overly constricted use of “just jobs or labor” whose connotations are not appealing to even the youngest of the youths, nor connotations are not appealing to even the youngest of the youths, nor to the small business people. Politicos and the elite are not in concert to the small business people. Politicos and the elite are not in concert with the public system which they try to control as their whipping boy. with the public system which they try to control as their whipping boy.

4. Practical changes in governmental and their agents structures, polices 4. Practical changes in governmental and their agents structures, polices and practices must be forthcoming forthwith. Evolution advances much and practices must be forthcoming forthwith. Evolution advances much faster when future successful paths are noted and concentrations are faster when future successful paths are noted and concentrations are pointed towards solutions to causes of failures and their effects pointed towards solutions to causes of failures and their effects beforehand.beforehand.


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Effectiveness EEffectiveness E

People People Can’t Survive SoCan’t Survive So

They Flee & Pop DeclineThey Flee & Pop Decline

Pop Growth Pop Growth & Inflow& Inflow

The Complicated Variable:The Complicated Variable:

Maximum Capacity Maximum CapacitySupporting the People’s Desired Quality of LifeSupporting the People’s Desired Quality of Life

One Aspect:

Migration Effects, or Why Do The People Leave?Migration Effects, or Why Do The People Leave?It is not the number of jobs. It’s the number of Quality jobs: dummies.It is not the number of jobs. It’s the number of Quality jobs: dummies.

There is no plan to use There is no plan to use Diversified, Diversified, Home Grown, Home Grown, Knowable PeopleKnowable People!!

50%-50%50%-50%

The HighlyThe HighlyUnstable PointUnstable Point


EntropyEntropy(Uncertainty)(Uncertainty)

Ideal Range of

Utilization72% - 86%

Not ENot E

Growth-DeclineGrowth-DeclineRate of Change is Rate of Change is

Highly Depended on Highly Depended on ResourcesResources

Availability.Availability.


Full-Scope Vision of Future QoL!Full-Scope Vision of Future QoL!

Compatibility!Compatibility!

Responsibility! Accountability!Responsibility! Accountability!

Ensuring Low Rates of Smooth Ensuring Low Rates of Smooth Pop Turnovers.Pop Turnovers.

Assuring Each One Carry-on Assuring Each One Carry-on At A WorkplaceAt A Workplace

DesirableDesirableEnjoyableEnjoyable

FunFun

SeriousSeriousKnowledgeableKnowledgeable

FriendlinessFriendliness

Strive forStrive forEfficient, Maximized Public UtilizationEfficient, Maximized Public Utilization

To Make To Make SSoocciieetty y The Most The Most Cool CommunityCool Community

forforALL Groups and ALL IndividualsALL Groups and ALL Individuals


SSoocciieetty’y’ssQuality Management Green-TeamQuality Management Green-Team

Changing the Way We Think About the Linkage of Nodes and Communities ...Changing the Way We Think About the Linkage of Nodes and Communities ...Strategically, Integrated Operations Criterion Established by the Top Sextet.Strategically, Integrated Operations Criterion Established by the Top Sextet.

Detailed Technical Processes with Quality Controls areDetailed Technical Processes with Quality Controls areDetermined and Managed Collectively by theDetermined and Managed Collectively by theGeneral Manger the Lower Quartet Functions.General Manger the Lower Quartet Functions.

ResourcesFacilityUtilization Programs

Counselor Long Term Investors

SalesCustomer ServicesDemands Research

Food Services

AccountingInventory

Human ResourcesPublications

Operations ResearchQuality Assurance

Short-Term FinanceLogistics & Procurements

FinancialsQuality

Executive DirectorStrategic Strategies

General Manager Operations

SecurityFacility MaintenanceProcesses Tools and

Communication Systems O&M

Biosocial MeetingsPresentions & BroadcastsPublic & Private ForumsPerforming Arts & Music

Art Exhibits & Historic Movies

Developing Developing Strategic Strategic ScenariosScenarios

Is AIs ADynamical Dynamical

Art with Art with Drama.Drama.

PreparePrepareforfor

Growths &Growths &Declines.Declines.

PreparePrepareforfor

Spinoffs.Spinoffs.

Think About It!Think About It!


SSoocciieetty’y’ssIntegratedIntegrated

Detailed Design and Development Detailed Design and Development NetworkNetwork

..

Owenership Benefits and Cost Eff ectivenessPM, Pop, LCB, LCC & UL

Owenership Benefits and Cost Eff ectivenessPM, Pop, LCB, LCC & UL

Quality AssuranceEngineering

Subcontractor# 1

ConstructionProgram Manager

ArchitectFacadeEngineering

Quality AssuranceEngineering

Life Safety and O&MEngineering

Long-Term

Investors

Program Manager

IntegrationEngineering

Fonction # 1Design-Development

Fonction # iDesign-Development

Fonction # jDesign-Development

Fonction # nDesign-Development

Safety & ReliabilyEngineering

Life Utilization O&MLogistics Engineering

Uswful LifeOperations Renewal Group

ArchitecturalEngineeringProductionEngineering

The Useful LifeOperations Renewal Group

As Necessary,Prepare for Replications

What Ever Your Specialty, Think About It!What Ever Your Specialty, Think About It!


Strategic Work Planning ...Strategic Work Planning ...Quality Effectiveness Evaluation CriterionQuality Effectiveness Evaluation Criterion

Use The Common Life, Business and Facility Planning Use The Common Life, Business and Facility Planning ToolTool

Information Network TheoryInformation Network TheoryWith Multi-Users, Multi-Channels & Multi-Terminals FeedbackWith Multi-Users, Multi-Channels & Multi-Terminals Feedback

Recurrent Information Transfer During All Program Management PhasesRecurrent Information Transfer During All Program Management Phases

1. Research Feasibility of Vision1. Research Feasibility of Vision2. Detail Design & Prototype Test & Evaluation2. Detail Design & Prototype Test & Evaluation

3. Full Scale Development3. Full Scale Development

4. Useful Life Utilization & Effectiveness4. Useful Life Utilization & Effectiveness4.1 Operations 4.2 Maintenance4.1 Operations 4.2 Maintenance

4.3 Logistics4.3 Logistics


Strategic Work Planning ... Strategic Work Planning ... (cont)(cont)

Quality Effectiveness Evaluation CriterionQuality Effectiveness Evaluation Criterion

• Safe General Arrangement of Life FunctionsSafe General Arrangement of Life Functions• Effective Benefits & Cost of Ownership Realizable Effective Benefits & Cost of Ownership Realizable

at Recovery, Breakeven & Horizon Boundariesat Recovery, Breakeven & Horizon Boundaries• Green Operations with Minimum Efficient Energy Green Operations with Minimum Efficient Energy

UseUse• Stability of Utilization with Changes toStability of Utilization with Changes to

Confront Changing Future ConditionsConfront Changing Future Conditions• Optimum Quality of All Recurrent OperationsOptimum Quality of All Recurrent Operations• Maximized Cumulative Effectiveness of Operating Maximized Cumulative Effectiveness of Operating

Modes, Preventive and Corrective Maintenance, Modes, Preventive and Corrective Maintenance, Availability and PerformanceAvailability and Performance

• Before-Fact Predictive & After-Fact Auditing AidsBefore-Fact Predictive & After-Fact Auditing Aidsfor Decision Makingfor Decision Making

• Easily Upgradeable Access to Prevailing Modes of Easily Upgradeable Access to Prevailing Modes of Information ChangesInformation Changes


Advanced Life & Business Advanced Life & Business Educational Educational

Societal (LBES) Research Societal (LBES) Research Center Center

• The Mission – Realize Biodynamical General The Mission – Realize Biodynamical General Welfare SystemsWelfare Systems

• Optimize Social & Business EnterprisesOptimize Social & Business Enterprises• Cultivate Interactive Societal Capitalist SystemCultivate Interactive Societal Capitalist System• Investigate Aggregate Behaviors in QoL DistributionsInvestigate Aggregate Behaviors in QoL Distributions• Balance Competition, Inflation and FluctuationsBalance Competition, Inflation and Fluctuations• Investigate Utilization and Profit-Loss DistributionsInvestigate Utilization and Profit-Loss Distributions• Seek, Measure and Calibrate Uncertainty BenefitsSeek, Measure and Calibrate Uncertainty Benefits

• Identify Predictive and Auditing Identify Predictive and Auditing Measurements and ToolsMeasurements and Tools

Transferring Societal Quality of Life (QoL) KnowledgeTransferring Societal Quality of Life (QoL) Knowledge... a PEEP at Survival Criterion ...... a PEEP at Survival Criterion ...


Start Now Applying Available Knowledge to Assure The Start Now Applying Available Knowledge to Assure The Future HasFuture Has

A A MeasurableMeasurableViable General Welfare InfrastructureViable General Welfare Infrastructure

Safety:Safety: Essentially 99.9% Free of Essentially 99.9% Free of Undesirable Noise Undesirable Noise and and ThreatsThreats

Reliability:Reliability: 0.002% or Less Chance of 0.002% or Less Chance of Operation or Maintenance Operation or Maintenance FailuresFailuresAvailability:Availability: 99.995% Chance of Being 99.995% Chance of Being in Desired Useable States of in Desired Useable States of BeingBeingEase of Improvement Modification or Overhaul: Ease of Improvement Modification or Overhaul: OvercomingOvercoming Wearout and ObsolescenceWearout and Obsolescence within the within the Availability WindowAvailability Window

End of Life:End of Life: 120 years or better 120 years or better Elusive, Moving HorizonElusive, Moving Horizon

Apply Pre-Analysis WAGs to Visions,Apply Pre-Analysis WAGs to Visions,then Verify Values,then Verify Values,

and then Validate Values Continuously.and then Validate Values Continuously.For Example;For Example;

Start Up-Front, Predicting Usefulness and Effectiveness of:Start Up-Front, Predicting Usefulness and Effectiveness of:

And, Maximized Societal Real Survival InsurancesAnd, Maximized Societal Real Survival Insurances

With Prior Predictive Proofs of Behavioral LikelihoodsWith Prior Predictive Proofs of Behavioral Likelihoods


Universality of AppliedUniversality of Applied

Quantitative & Qualitative QualityQuantitative & Qualitative QualityIrrelative of their kind, density, or environment,Irrelative of their kind, density, or environment,

all systems change some faster than others; therefore their probabilitiesall systems change some faster than others; therefore their probabilitiesof being in any state do not remain constant.of being in any state do not remain constant.

There is a persistence of evolving perpetual motion.There is a persistence of evolving perpetual motion.

““From the view of quality control, however, it is desirable that the From the view of quality control, however, it is desirable that the process conform to the Bernoulli scheme, and it is an important process conform to the Bernoulli scheme, and it is an important discovery that, production can be made to behave in this way.discovery that, production can be made to behave in this way.

The purpose of continuous control is then to discover at an early The purpose of continuous control is then to discover at an early stage flagrant departures from the ideal scheme and to use them stage flagrant departures from the ideal scheme and to use them

as an indication of impending trouble.”as an indication of impending trouble.”

by by William FellerWilliam FellerAn Introduction to Probability Theory and Its An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its

ApplicationsApplications Volume IVolume I

QA 273.F37 1950, 1957QA 273.F37 1950, 1957


Universality of AppliedUniversality of Applied

Quantitative & Qualitative QualityQuantitative & Qualitative Qualitycontinuedcontinued

Operations ResearchOperations Research – The systematic reduction of seemingly – The systematic reduction of seemingly complexcomplex operations and maintenance events into integrated operations and maintenance events into integrated methodologiesmethodologies for ease and assurance of effective future practices.for ease and assurance of effective future practices.Quality AssuranceQuality Assurance – The independent – The independent verificationverification of success- of success-failurefailure properties of integrated future criterion, practices, procedures and properties of integrated future criterion, practices, procedures and resources. resources. Quality ControlQuality Control – The – The validationvalidation that actual criterion and that actual criterion and recurrentrecurrent practices are resulting in the planned outcomes. practices are resulting in the planned outcomes.

These were Pre WWI Military Requirements, but Liked the Knowledge Skills.These were Pre WWI Military Requirements, but Liked the Knowledge Skills.A WWII Military Secret Invention that deals with these Material Quality situationsA WWII Military Secret Invention that deals with these Material Quality situations

vested in proven skills related to: vested in proven skills related to:


Useful Useful LifeLifeAn Example:An Example:

Normalized, Effective Yearly Economic Normalized, Effective Yearly Economic ValueValue

of Alternative Spacesof Alternative Spaces

The Comparative Expense & Qualitative Benefits of Each The Comparative Expense & Qualitative Benefits of Each AlternativeAlternative

Must Be Weighed and Laid In with the Economic Income IndicesMust Be Weighed and Laid In with the Economic Income Indices

Item Alternative Rental Option 3 Utilization EcoSpace Yearly Rate Economic Value

0 Do Nothing 7,540 NA 0.35 2639 350$ 923,650$

1 Maximize Use of Existing Spaces 20,680 NA 0.55 11374 350$ 3,980,900$

2 Maximize Onsite Rental Spaces 22,506 NA 0.65 14629 350$ 5,120,115$

3 Add The Key Costly Function 20,202 6920 0.68 & 0.75 18927 271$ 5,129,315$

Utilization Rates 0.68 0.75 Monthly Rate 22.58$

Spaces Economic Adjustments Gross Income

Item Indices Differences D-Indices

0 1.00 923,650$ 1.00

1 4.31 3,057,250$ 3.31

2 5.54 1,139,215$ 1.23

3 5.55 9,200$ 0.01

Economic Value Relative Indices

Yearly Rate $271 Yearly Rate $271 Adjusted to Find Adjusted to Find

Breakeven,Breakeven,Minimum, RatMinimum, Ratee

to Build Decision Uponto Build Decision Upon

Enter InformationEnter InformationIn White Cells and In White Cells and Outcomes FalloutOutcomes Fallout


An Example:An Example: Useful Life Useful Life UtilizationUtilization

Long-Term Visions Must Be Made With Benefits ofLong-Term Visions Must Be Made With Benefits of

Predicted Assumptions:Predicted Assumptions:1. 1. Major Societal Threats; Major Societal Threats; 2.2. Catastrophe Events; Catastrophe Events;

3.3. Operations & Maintenance Abilities to Address Wear Out Operations & Maintenance Abilities to Address Wear Outand Obsolescence Turnovers Effectively and Timely;and Obsolescence Turnovers Effectively and Timely;

4.4. Reasonable, Effective, Economic, Societal Envelope Reasonable, Effective, Economic, Societal Envelope is Sustained by the People with their Governments. is Sustained by the People with their Governments.

Maximize Public UtilizationMaximize Public Utilizationof an Operations and Maintenance Durableof an Operations and Maintenance Durable

to Behavioral, Environmental and Threat Conditionsto Behavioral, Environmental and Threat Conditions

Item Alternatives Investment Payback Utilization Useful L ife

0 Do Nothing - Continue Housekeeping & Corrections $150 K Yearly 10-15% 8-12 yr

1 Optmized Base Economical Improvements $ 3 m 2.45, 12 yr 20-35% 15-25 yr

2 Maximized Base Echomical Operation & Useful L ife $ 10 m 2.97, 20 yr 40-60% 55-80 yr

3 Add Enhanced Public Utilization Capability to Base $ 15 m 3.45, 30 yr 60-88% 90 - 114 yr


Determine FeasibilityDetermine Feasibility

for anfor an

Advanced Computing Center Advanced Computing Center

eventually at an independenteventually at an independent

Societal Information and Practice Institute Societal Information and Practice Institute managed by technically & society knowledgeable seniorsmanaged by technically & society knowledgeable seniors

??

PEEPPEEP integrated workplaces horizonal studies integrated workplaces horizonal studies

Ecosystem

1

Agriculture

Transportation

8

10

4

5

6

7

3

2

12

11

9 0

Goverment

Industry

Trade

Public Services

People

Community

Religion

Education

Living Things


1. IntegrateStandard & Unique

O&M Goals

2. DevelopO&M

Objectives

3. FinalizeO&M

Criteria

4. Develop4. DevelopAesthetics &

Utilization

Local Codes, Laws, & Regulations

5. Propose5. ProposeFunctional

Design ConceptsDesign Concepts

NationalLife Safety Codes

6. Develop6. DevelopQuality Mgm't Assumptions

OccupancySOM Scenario

Life CharacteristicsLCW Benefits & Costs

Legal Issues

7. Refine7. RefineSafety Factors,

VerificationMethods &

Functional Requirements Functional Requirements SpecificationsSpecifications

8. Accept

10. Proceed with Assembling Details ofThe Functional Requirements Specifications,The Functional Requirements Specifications,

with Detail with Detail Design- and- Build-to-Cost Bid Package

9. Correct9. CorrectConceptual DifferencesConceptual DifferencesIn-Among AlternativesIn-Among Alternatives

Invest to Perform Phase I Future Life andInvest to Perform Phase I Future Life andOperations Research Feasibility StudyOperations Research Feasibility Study

Merge Strategic Findings ofMerge Strategic Findings of Feasible Alternatives Research Feasible Alternatives Research

TasksTasks

Alternatives Feedback Alternatives Feedback

A PriorA Prior

O&M … Operations & MaintenanceO&M … Operations & Maintenance

SOM … Safety, Operations, MaintenanceSOM … Safety, Operations, Maintenance

LCW … Life Cycle WAG (Wild Ass Guess)LCW … Life Cycle WAG (Wild Ass Guess)

Major MarcoMajor MarcoCriteriaCriteria

Many Micro ElementsMany Micro Elements

Feasibility Study Investment: $ XXX,XXXFeasibility Study Investment: $ XXX,XXX

Documents

8 Oct 2007by Pres Cutter1 PEEP PEEP PEEP PEEP PEEP PEEP