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6 ROUTE ASSESSMENT

Two road alignments, Options 1 and 2, have been proposed, both having the same origin and destination, as shown in Figure 1.1. The aim of the proposed road is to alleviate traffic along Dune Road / Angler�s Road, improve opportunities and safety for vulnerable pedestrians crossing along these roads and streamline RBM operations by shortening the travel distance for staff and operational vehicles to and from the Alton Bagging Plant. The key advantages and disadvantages in light of the above and various key factors are discussed hereafter and summarised in Figures 6.1 and 6.2.

6.1 Travel Distance and Time

The length of the route currently travelled between the RBM site and the centre of Richard�s Bay Central Business District (CBD) is approximately 19.5km. The travel distances for Options 1 and 2 will be approximately 11.2km and 11.9km respectively. The travel distances and percentage reductions are shown in Table 6.1 below.

Table 6.1: Travel distance from RBM to Alton Bagging Plant

Route to Bagging Plant Distance (km) Percentage Reduction

Existing Route 19.5 -

Option 1 11.2 42.6%

Option 2 11.9 39%

The travel time is affected by specific road conditions and the environments abutting the roads. The existing route traverses through rural, informal residential areas with a high number of accesses. Speed humps, raised and level pedestrian crossings are frequent along the existing route due to the presence of various public amenities, as shown in Figure 6.3. These are all factors contributing to a reduction in mobility along Dune Road, resulting in longer travel times.

Figure 6.3: Speed hump located along Dune Road

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Approximately half of the length of the new route will traverse through plantations, and thereafter residential areas with no direct access but several signalised intersections in the built-up areas. The remainder of the route goes through the Richard�s Bay CBD area to the Alton industrial area. Although fewer disruptions to traffic flow exist along the proposed route, during peak hour traffic, RBM operations are expected to be adversely affected by the high traffic volumes in the residential and CBD areas should RBM use the new road to transport its products to Alton Bagging Plant. Therefore, the traffic in these areas may serve as a bottle-neck to further development. The plantation area, closer to Birdswood, is earmarked for the northern expansion of Richard�s Bay including the Sappi Housing Development and the expansion of Richard�s Bay Airport, as shown in Figures 1.2 and 1.3. Therefore, the possibility of much higher traffic volumes in future should be taken into consideration as more of the public make use of the road. It is important to note that Dune Road is a private road which was built and is maintained by RBM and that all the developments along it after the Meer En See area are informal settlements. It is possible that informal settlements may also develop along the ECA, resulting in similar mobility constraints, if preventative measures are not taken.

6.2 Safety

With regard to safety, Dune Road appears to meet all the necessary geometric requirements, has traffic calming measures, pedestrian crossings, makes provision for public transport, barricading and has light posts for visibility at night. However, the accident history along Dune Road indicates that safety is a major concern. According to the Richard�s Bay Minerals, Transportation Risk Assessment: Road Network, 30 August 2011 completed by Hatch, a high number of incidents have occurred during the period of 2006 to 2011 along the road, resulting in 63 injuries and 12 fatalities. This could be related to the high number of accesses and extensive pedestrian activity along the road. The proposed ECA extension is not expected to have any direct access along it, but in future may have residential streets intersecting with it, of which most would likely be signalised and is therefore expected to have fewer vehicle conflicts. With more RBM vehicles using the ECA extension, hence reducing the number of vehicles along Dune Road, the number of incidents along Dune Road is expected to decrease. Speed surveys were conducted along Dune Road and the RBM Access Road and the following results were obtained, as shown in Table 6.2. The speed limits along both these roads are 60km/h. Table 6.2: Speed Survey Results

Road 85th Percentile Speed

(km/h) Average Speed

(km/h)

Percentage Exceeding

Speed Limit

Dune Road 59.4 54 0%

RBM Access Road

59.4 56 14.4%

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Motorists appear to adhere to the speed limit along Dune Road; however according to the speed survey 14.4% of motorists exceed the speed limit along the RBM Access Road which may be due to fewer speed reducing features along the road. It is very likely that speeding will occur along the extension of the ECA, particularly before any residential developments occur along the road.

6.3 Traffic Composition

The existing daily traffic volumes entering and exiting the RBM area of operations was measured for the period of a week and the results are shown in Figure 6.3.

The average daily traffic over a weekly period was found to be approximately 5704 veh/day. The daily traffic appears to peak towards Friday and expectedly decrease over the weekend period. The volume of heavy vehicles is more consistent throughout the week. The percentage modal split of various vehicle classes for the week period is indicated below, in Figure 6.4.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

20

12

/08

/29

20

12

/08

/30

20

12

/08

/31

20

12

/09

/01

20

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/09

/02

20

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/03

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/04

Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday

Da

ily

Tra

ffic

Vo

lum

es

Figure 6.4: Daily Traffic Volumes along Dune Road

29 August to 4 September 2012

Light

Heavy

Total

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Eighty seven percent of vehicles travelling through the RBM area of operations consist of light vehicles, with 13% consisting of various types of heavy vehicles. The traffic composition will change along the proposed extension as all heavy vehicle trips along Dune Road to the RBM site are expected to relocate to the proposed extension, thus resulting in a higher percentage of heavy vehicles of 14%.

6.4 Road Pavement Design

In order to complete the road pavement design, factors such as the road category, analysis period, structural design period and equivalent standard axle loads, to name a few, must be determined. Although the factors mentioned, including many others, can only be determined with some certainty once the actual road design commences, this section serves to help inform the design.

6.4.1 Road Category The road category is generally based on the purpose of the road and hence quality of the road geometric and structural standards, according to the Committee of Land Transport Officials (COLTO, TRH4, 1996), where highest to lowest quality ranges between A to D. The ECA extension will serve as an important interurban collector, where a high level of service will be expected and can therefore be considered to be a Category B road.

6.4.2 Analysis and Structural Design Period The selection of the analysis period depends on how sure one can be that the road alignment and traffic situation will not vary significantly (COLTO, TRH4, 1996). The

87%

9% 3%

1%

Figure 6.5: Classification of Traffic

29 August to 4 September 2012

Motorcycle, car, bakkie and

minibus

2 axle bus, single unit truck

3 to 4 axle bus or truck

5 or more axle bus or truck

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greater the certainty, the longer the analysis period should be and vice versa. For Category B the analysis period ranges between 15 to 30 years. Once the road alignment is selected for the ECA extension it is not expected to change thereafter. However, numerous junctions are expected to develop along the road as the Richard�s Bay area expands northward. In light of the expansion northward, the traffic situation is expected to vary significantly. Due to this uncertainty, it is recommended by COLTO (TRH4) that a shorter analysis period of 25 years can be selected. The structural design period can be defined as the length of time the road pavement remains above its terminal riding quality (before ceasing to fulfil its function effectively). It is highly dependent on the life cycle strategy of the road, which in turn depends on the desired quality, quantity and availability of resources, COLTO (TRH4). Therefore, no recommendation can be made in this regard until the pavement design commences. Typically the structural design period for a Category B road would be between 15 and 25 years. Therefore, for the ECA extension a structural design period of 20 years has been assumed.

6.4.3 Design Traffic and Axle Loading In order to design a road pavement that will structurally withstand the traffic loading expected along the road, the cumulative damaging effect of individual axle loads of all vehicles using the road over its structural design period is converted to the number of equivalent 80kN single-axle loads (ESAs) or E80s (COLTO, TRH4). The number of vehicles per day per heaviest trafficked lane (v.p.d/lane) or direction (v.p.d/direction) is converted into ESAs or E80s by multiplying it to the following:

· Percentage heavy vehicles that would use the road (26%)

· E80 loading factor based on how fully laden the heavy vehicles are expected to be (>70% fully laden, therefore a factor of 2 is used)

· A traffic growth factor (fy) based on the following: o Structural design period, (20 years) o Annual growth rate percentage for road type (Although an assumption of 5%

annual growth for the Richard�s Bay area and 1% for RBM traffic was made, for a Category B road a typical growth rate used would be 4%)

From the above calculation the required bearing capacity is determined and hence an appropriate pavement class can be chosen, as shown in Table 6.3. An ES30 pavement is selected as it is typically used for roads with a very high volume of traffic and many fully laden heavy vehicles. Table 6.3: Equivalent Standard Axles (E80 or ESA) Calculation

v.p.d / direction (most highly trafficked lane) 3 348

Percentage heavy vehicles 14%

E80 per heavy vehicle 2

Growth Factor (fy) 11 303

Bearing capacity needed E80 or ESA 10.82x106 E80

Selected pavement class ES30

As shown in COLTO, TRH14 Table 4, page 19

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6.5 Alignment Recommendation

Based on the purpose of the extension and the possible expansion of Richard�s Bay northward, Option 1 is considered the more appropriate alignment. This alignment will allow for a more direct route between Richard�s Bay and the RBM Final Products Site, resulting in economic and environmental efficiency. However, road geometric design standards and other inputs should ultimately determine the most suitable alignment as there is not a significant benefit of Option 1 over Option 2 based on transport planning inputs.

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7 CONCLUSIONS

The following can therefore be concluded:

· The ECA has recently been extended to John Ross Parkway (R34) and comprises a four-lane divided road

· The NCA has recently been redesigned to a four lane divided road, between Gulden Gracht and Via Davallia. Implementation is, however, uncertain due to financial constraints

· Most of the major intersections within the existing Richard�s Bay road network operates acceptably during both the AM and PM peak hours ranging between intersection LOS A and C

· However, the John Ross Parkway (R34) / Hibberd Drive intersection currently operates poorly with the Hibberd Drive approach experiencing LOS F during both the AM and PM peak hours

· The John Ross Parkway (R34) / Hibberd Drive intersection currently meets the SARTSM warrants for signalisation and the minimum spacing requirements for signalisation according to COLTO (RAM, 2005)

· If the John Ross Parkway (R34) / Hibberd Drive intersection were signalised, as shown below, under the current conditions it would operate well at intersection LOS B and A during the AM and PM peak hours respectively

· It is expected that approximately 66% of the staff and all heavy vehicles currently at the eastern end of Dune Road will reroute to the extension of the ECA

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· Most of the major intersections will continue to operate acceptably if the ECA were to be extended in 2012 with intersection LOS ranging between B and C, with the exception of the John Ross Parkway / Hibberd Drive intersection

· If the John Ross Parkway (R34) / Hibberd Drive intersection were to be upgraded with the ECA extended under 2012 conditions, it would operate at intersection LOS B during both the AM and PM peak hours

· The operation of many of the intersections will deteriorate in the year 2017 due to the increased traffic volumes throughout the Richard�s Bay area. However, most of the major intersections will continue to operate acceptably with LOS ranging between B and D, with the exception of the John Ross Parkway / Hibberd Drive intersection

· If the John Ross Parkway (R34) / Hibberd Drive intersection were to be upgraded with the ECA extended under the 2017 conditions, it would continue to operate at intersection LOS B during the AM and PM peak hours

· The travel distance between the RBM Final Products Site and the Richard�s Bay CBD for alignment Options 1 and 2 will decrease by 42.6% and 39% respectively

· Travel time on the existing route along Dune Road is longer than the proposed route due to more speed reducing features, such as speed humps, pedestrian crossings and the distance covered

· RBM operations are expected to be delayed along the new route during the AM and PM peak hours as the new route traverses the busier Richard�s Bay CBD area

· The plantation areas north of Richard�s Bay are earmarked for development, including the Sappi Housing Development

· Dune Road has a high accident rate, which may be related to the high number of pedestrians along the road. It is expected that the extension of the ECA will reduce the number of incidents along Dune Road by reducing traffic volumes and heavy vehicles

· No speeding was observed along Dune Road, however, 14.4% of vehicles observed along the RBM access road exceeded the speed limit

· The current modal split along Dune Road is 87% light vehicles and 13% heavy vehicles

· The modal split will differ along the extension of the ECA, due to a higher presence of heavy vehicles.

· Due to the uncertainty of the expected traffic volumes along the extension of the ECA in the future, in light of the possible expansion of Richard�s Bay northward, the road is considered to be Category B

· The equivalent axle-load expected for the road is 10.82x106 E80s and therefore the minimum pavement class should be ES30

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8 RECOMMENDATIONS

It is therefore recommended that:

· The ECA / Nkoninga intersection have the following geometry:

The above intersection geometry is required due to the road extension and is therefore the responsibility of RBM.

· The John Ross Parkway / Hibberd Drive intersection be signalised as follows. It should be noted, however, that the requirement to signalise this intersection is due to current traffic conditions and not as a result of the introduction of the new ECA extension.

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· The pavement class used for the ECA extension is designed for a minimum bearing capacity of 10.82x106 E80s and a pavement class of at least ES30.

· The ECA extension follow alignment option 1 as it is more economically and environmentally efficient. However, established road geometric design standards and other environmental investigations should ultimately determine the most suitable alignment.

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9 REFERENCES

1. Department of Transport. Manual for Traffic Impact Studies. July 1995

2. City of uMhlathuze: Integrated Development Plan Review 2009/2010. June 2009

3. City of uMhlathuze: Revision of Spatial Development Framework. 11 February 2007

4. Mbonambi Local Municipality: Integrated Development Plan 2009/2010. June 2009

5. Richard�s Bay Minerals: Transport Risk Assessment, Environmental Context. 20 August 2011

6. Richard�s Bay Minerals: Transport Risk Assessment, Road Network. 20 August 2011

7. Southern African Development Community. Road Traffic Signs Manual. 3rd Ed. Digitised Version. May 2012

8. Committee for Land Transport Officials (COLTO). National Guidelines for Road Access Management in South Africa (RAM). 25 October 2005

9. Committee for Land Transport Officials (COLTO). Structural Design of Flexible Pavements for Interurban and Rural Roads. Draft TRH4. Revised 2006