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IEK 產業經濟與趨勢研究中心 由國際經濟發展 觀察兩岸合作新契機 報告人:吳嘉璘 理事長 工商建設研究會 工商建設研究會 資料準備 游啟聰 副主任 資料準備游啟聰 副主任 工業技術研究院IEK 1 2010年12月5日

觀察兩岸合作新契機

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  • 1. IEK IEK2010125 1

2. IEK 2008-2009GDP2009GDP61.7 % % 8.5% 2.7%2.1% 30 0% 28 4 30.0% 28.4 1.5 % 1.4% 23.6% 24.6% 7.4%8.5% 8.0% 8.7% 0.66% 0 65%0.65% 2.0% 2.1%3.7%3.4% 2.1%2.2% 2.67%2.72% 1.5%1.5% 1.73% 1.72%: WEO IMF(2010/4), IEK(2010/08): 20082009()GDP/GDP (%)2 3. IEK 2009~2010 -4 1% 1 0% 4.1% 1.0% -2.5% 3 6% 2 5% 3.6%-7.9% 4.3% 0.2% 5.7% -2.4% 3.3% -4.9% 1.2% 9.1% 10.5% 9 1% 10 5% -5.2% 2.4% 5.2% 2.4% 4.5% -1.9% 7.7% 5.7% 9.4% 1.7% 6.4%2.2% 5.0% -0.2% 7.1% : IMF(2010/07)3 4. IEK National Academies2009 1 good enough market (1/3)20094 5. IEK 7% 7% J. E. Stiglitz, American, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy() J. Economy()5 6. IEK --- 40 37.936.9 36.6 36 636.6 36 6 36.1 35.8 35.2 3534.4 34.2 34.534.8 35.0 34.9 33.733.633.7 32.932.032 0 31.4 30 29.0 %27.227 2 26.8 27.5 .5 26.726.3 2524.3 24.5 24.124.3 24.4 23.9 23.7 23.8 22.6 22 622.4 22 421.9 21 9 21.9 21.721.720.8 201999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 6 7. IEK 2030GDP50% GDP(%) 23 0 25 6 13 0 23.0 25.6 13.0 1820 1973 2030 59.3 24.2 53.3 USA 1.8 22.1 17.3 3.07.83.6 32.94.6 23.8 16.0 16 03.1 3110.4 10 4Angus Maddison, Asian Economy Policy Review (2008), (Post Crisis), 19 7 7 8. IEK GDPGDP8 9. IEK 9 10. IEK 3 20091 2009 IC (NB)*(Netbook)**ICMask (System & Pure MB)**CRT MB) CRTROM *LCD** WLAN*PND* DSL CPE*Cable CPE*** *ABS* * ABS 2009220093DRAMICIC *(LED)TFT-(System)* PU TPE*LCDTFT-LCD * TN/STN-LCD PTA* *OLED99.04.08 ITIS *10 11. IEK ,, (IPO/TDR)11 12. IEK 50%25% 41 41 109 109 218 17% 6%13%21%10%50 50 113 113 226 5%12%20% 2010528 2009123 2010 2010 50% 3 25%17%10% 1% 1,20050 (25%)220 (22%)12 13. IEK ECFA ECFA ECFA 13 14. IEK FTA 14 15. IEK ICT (/) () WiMAX WiMAX 15 16. IEK ECFA/FTA FTA 16 17. IEK ECFA--2010,8,19 2008 2015 2020 (1)20.84%25% 28% 7.37% 12% 15% 4% 14% 30% (2)1.(2007)21.86%(2006)32.6%(2007)31.38% 2 2. 4G17 18. IEK ECFA 1. 1 2. 2 ECFA 3. FTAIEK(2010/05) 19. IEK ECFA ( 68%78%) Gateway ( ()) Test bed // 20. IEK ECFA 1.(To-be) 1.()()(-) 2.()()() 3.()()()() 4.()()()4 ()()() 21. IEK 21