2002 Base 5 PM-2.5 Emissions and

Preliminary PM-2.5 CMAQ Base 4 vs Base 5

Model Performance Evaluation

June 4, 2007

St. Louis Modeling Workgroup Meeting

2002 Base 5 Emissions Changes - Point Sources

• Incorporated CENRAP Base G inventory– Corrected stacks and coordinates– Added sources previously missing in Arkansas– Updated SO2 emissions for Noranda Aluminum in

Missouri• Incorporated VISTAS Base G inventory• Removed agricultural ammonia emissions that were

double-counted with MRPO area source ag ammonia inventory

• Fixed day-of-week temporal issue with Missouri EGUs

• Onroad mobile

– Incorporated EW Gateway VMT data for St. Louis NAA counties

– Corrected M6 inputs for MO-side St. Louis NAA counties

• Area sources

– Applied transport factors to CENRAP dust emissions

– Added missing MN dust emissions: construction, mining, ag tilling

– Fixed hour-of-day temporal issue with ag ammonia

2002 Base 5 Emissions Changes - Non-Point Sources

2002 Annual Point Source NOx & SO2 Emissions - Selected CENRAP & VISTAS States

B4 NOx(TPY)

B5 NOx(TPY)

% Diff B4 SO2(TPY)

B5 SO2(TPY)

% Diff

Arkansas 66,906 72,419 7.6% 89,192 90,494 1.4%

Kentucky 237,205 240,366 1.3% 518,084 529,185 2.1%

Missouri 181,582 181,582 0.0% 361,450 362,640 0.3%

Tennessee 229,193 216,477 -5.9% 424,311 399,750 -6.1%

TOTALS 714,886 710,844 0.6% 1,393,037 1,382,069 -0.8%

Note: MRPO, WRAP, MANE-VU point source inventories did not change from Base 4 to Base 5.

2002 Annual Agricultural NH3 Emissions -CENRAP States

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Tons/

Yea

r

AR IA KS LA MN MO NE OK TX

Base 4 Base 5

Note: The double-counting of ag ammonia emissions in the point and area inventories only occurred in KS, MO, NE, and OK.

2002 Summer Weekday Onroad Mobile Emissions - Illinois and Missouri

B4 VOC(TPD)

B5 VOC(TPD)

% Diff B4 NOx(TPD)

B5 NOx(TPD)

% Diff

Illinois 481.1 471.5 -2.0% 822.4 834.3 1.4%

Missouri 382.7 418.5 8.5% 862.1 839.9 -2.6%

TOTALS 863.8 890.9 2.9% 1,684.5 1,674.2 -0.6%

Note: For all states except Illinois and Missouri, onroad mobile emissions did not change from Base 4 to Base 5.

2002 Annual Dust PM-2.5 Emissions - CENRAP States

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

To

ns

/Ye

ar

AR IA KS LA MO MN OK TX

Base 4 Base 5

Note: For states outside CENRAP, dust emissions did not change significantly from Base 4 to Base 5.

St. Louis PM2.5 MPE

• 2002 Base 5 Annual Emissions Changes

• St. Louis Monitoring Networks:– Federal Reference Method (FRM) for total

PM2.5 mass• 16 sites in and near St. Louis (only 9 used)

– Speciated Trends Network (STN)• Speciated PM2.5: SO4, NO3, EC, OC, other PM2.5

St. Louis Monitoring Networks

= STN Site

PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km for Q1 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km for Q3 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km at all STN Stations (2-3)

PM2.5 Other STN 36km for Q1-Q4

PM2.5 FRM at Margaretta 36km for Q1-Q4

PM2.5 36km MPE at all FRM Stations (9)

Conclusions• The largest performance change between

Base4 and Base5 occurred in “PM2.5 Other” • Statistically, Q1 & Q4 improved and Q2 &

Q3 did not (all predictions were lower)• No substantive changes in model

performance for SO4, OC, EC, NH3 and NO3

• Poor performance for Organic Carbon and Nitrate remain an issue

Recommendations

• Assess reasonableness of seasonal dust (crustal PM2.5) profiles

• Update biogenic emissions using new MEGAN model

• Incorporate updated speciation profiles (CB-05)

PM2.5 Control• PM2.5 Implementation Rule

– Attainment date extension• Potential need

• Projected Year

– RFP demonstrations– RACT demonstrations

• “Tightening” of growth/control assumptions used in 8-hour ozone SIP

• Pollutants of concern

• Regional vs. local control

2009 Base 5 Controls• Point Sources

– NOx SIP Call rule– MACT standard– IL NOx RACT

– CAIR Trading Program (IPM 2.1.9)• Onroad and Offroad Mobile

– Tier 2 rule (light-duty vehicle engine standards and low-sulfur gasoline)

– Heavy-duty diesel engine standards and low-sulfur diesel

– Tier 4 rule (offroad mobile engine standards)– I/M and RFG

Preliminary 2002-2009 SO2 Emissions:

Missouri and Illinois Totals

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

Tons/

Year

Point Area Offroad Onroad

2002 2009

Note: All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base 5 except onroad mobile; onroad mobile emissions are from Base 4.

Preliminary 2002-2009 NOx Emissions:

Missouri and Illinois Totals

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Tons/

Year

Point Area Offroad Onroad

2002 2009

Note: All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base 5 except onroad mobile; onroad mobile emissions are from Base 4.

Preliminary 2002-2009 VOC Emissions:

Missouri and Illinois Totals

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

Tons/

Year

Point Area Offroad Onroad

2002 2009

Note: All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base 5 except onroad mobile; onroad mobile emissions are from Base 4.

Big SO2 Sources in St. Louis NAA (TPY)st cnty facilid name 2002 SO229 071 0003 AMERENUE-LABADIE 47607.829 183 0001 AMERENUE-SIOUX 45957.417 157 157851AAA DYNEGY - BALDWIN 26267.229 099 0016 AMERENUE-RUSH ISLAND 23257.829 189 0010 AMERENUE-MERAMEC 16447.529 099 0003 DOE RUN COMPANY-HERCULANEUM 15223.417 119 119090AAA TOSCOPETRO CORP 12761.817 119 119020AAE DYNEGY MIDWEST GENERATION INC 7265.029 510 0003 ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC-ST. LOUIS 6250.017 119 119813AAI NATIONAL STEEL CORP - GRANITE CITY 5003.217 119 119050AAA PREMCOR REFINING GROUP INC 1608.817 163 163121AAK BIG RIVER ZINC CORP 1378.629 183 0076 GENERAL MOTORS-WENTZVILLE 679.829 099 0002 RC CEMENT COMPANY 554.229 510 0017 MALLINCKRODT INC. 277.029 099 0068 SAINT-GOBAIN CONTAINERS - PEVELY 242.817 163 163121AAB ETHYL PETROLEUM ADDITIVES INC 136.729 189 0230 MCDONNELL DOUGLAS /BOEING CO 135.729 510 0809 PQ CORPORATION 74.729 510 0038 TRIGEN-ST. LOUIS -ASHLEY STREET 59.829 510 0040 WASHINGTON UNIV MED SCHOOL 49.629 510 0053 METROPOLITAN STL SEWER DISTRICT 25.4EGU TOTAL 166,803TOTAL 211,264NAA TOTAL 211,487

29 186 0001 MISSISSIPPI LIME 6001.429 186 HOLCIM - LEE ISLAND 304129 163 0001 HOLCIM - CLARKSVILLE 7408.029 163 0002 HERCULES - AQUALON 6086.5"Near" Total 22,537

PM2.5 Control Rulemaking Schedule

• For the purposes of Missouri’s rulemaking schedule, decisions need to occur this summer

• These include pollutants of concern identification, RACT determinations, RFP findings, and attainment demonstration