1D What Happened? Winner's strategy Optimal individual strategy Optimal group strategy Resource behavior Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

1D

What Happened?

• Winner's strategy• Optimal individual strategy• Optimal group strategy• Resource behavior

Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

2D

Summary of Company Performance

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1

6

CompanyShips Ships Ships Ships Ships Ships Ships Ships Ships

Assets Assets Assets Assets Assets Assets Assets Assets Assets

2

3

4

5


11/1110 14/3010 22/100 22/-400 22/-1100

10/2390 13/4670 18/820 18/-660 18/-1170

17/100 17/4260 17/3230 17/3220 17/3100

10/1060 17/1940 24/-2650 24/-5980 24/-7470

24/-1730 32/4830 44/-4240 44/-10830 44/-14200

5/1000

5/1000

5/1000

5/1000

5/1000

7/1500

10/790

10/790

8/800

12/90

Total

Grand

4400

3330

7350

-1470

-3200

3D

Summary of Game Behavior

FISH BOATS CATCH

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

YEAR

I N D E X

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

FISH CATCHSHIPS


4D

Typical Game Behavior

FishShips8

6

4

2

0

I N D E X

Catch

Ships

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

YEAR


5D

Typical Game Behavior – Fleet


6D

Typical Game Behavior – Catch


7D

Typical Game Behavior – Fish Population

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7YEAR

FISH

Deep Sea

Coastal


8D

Aggressive Strategies

“Purchase many boats until average fish productivity starts to decline. When fish productivity goes down, fish other areas.”

“Increase fleet size as long as yields are stable.”

“We will continue to add at least 1 ship per year. We will fish in both the deep sea and coast depending on fish supplies…”

“We have acted on an impulse that things will be good for a few more years. Probably will keep our fleet at or around this size [16 boats].”Comments from students at the University of New Hampshire.


9D

Conservative Strategies

“We want to keep our fleet at this constant level and disperse it so as not to deplete fish resources in the deep sea and coast. “

“Buy conservatively, out of necessity, and keep our bank balance positive.“

“Obtain a stable fleet size [and] move fleet around to follow fish population densities. Sell off some of fleet as time goes on.”

Comments from students at the University of New Hampshire.


10D

Does fish depletion happen in real life?

• Pacific Sardine • Peruvian Anchovy • North Sea Herring• Atlantic Swordfish• Atlantic Cod


11D

Pacific Sardine Catch

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


12D

Peruvian Herring, Anchovy and Sardine Catch

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


13D

North Sea Herring Catch

Source: Nichols, John. “Saving North Sea Herring.” Fishing News February 1999.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


14D

Atlantic Swordfish Catch

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


15D

Atlantic Cod Catch

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


16D

Principal Global Oceanic Fisheries


17D

Total World Fish Catch

Source: Fisheries of the United States, US Dept. of Commerce, 2000.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


18D

How The World’s Fish Are Caught

Source: “World Fisheries in Crisis.” Environmental News Network July 10, 1998.

Currently there are some 13 million fishers in the world. Twelve million use simple traditional technologies to land about half the world’s fish catch. The remaining one million fishers crew 37,000 industrial fishing vessels and account for the other half of the fish caught. These fishers deploy highly sophisticated contrivances ranging from sonar and spotting planes to fishing nets large enough to swallow twelve 747 jumbo jets.


19D

The World’s Fisheries – Anarchy

Source: “World Fisheries in Crisis.” Environmental News Network July 10, 1998.

“The emerging anarchy in the oceans” is how one United Nations official describes the situation on the high seas. With so many vessels scouring increasingly fished-out waters, squabbles are inevitable. Russians attack Japanese vessels in the Northwest Pacific. Scottish fishers attack a Russian trawler. A Falkland Islands patrol chases a Taiwanese squid boat more than 4,000 miles. Norwegian patrols cut the nets of three Icelandic ships in the Arctic, and shots are exchanged. Philippine patrols arrest Chinese fishers near the hotly contested Spratly Islands in the south China Sea. The list of confrontations is ever-expanding.


20D

Global Fisheries Depletion

Region

Northwest Atlantic

Northeast Atlantic

Southeast Atlantic Northwest Pacific

Northeast Pacific

Southeast Pacific

Total

Species

CodHaddockCapelinHerring

Herring

Pilchard

Salmon

Halibut PerchKing Crab

Anchoveta

Potential

1,350 100 500 300

2,250

600 350

38 210 40

9-11,000

16,738

1994 Catch

48 7 2 243

1,643

210 367

32 26 5

11,897

14,480

Loss

1,302 93 498 57

607 390

-17

6 184 35

- 897

2,258

Source: The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 1999.

Thousands of Tons


21D

International Fisheries Management

The relative failure of international management toestablish sustainable fisheries in many areas, despitethe high quality of the research base sometimes provided, is clearly demonstrated by the dwindlingresources, excessive catching capacity, uncontrolledtransfers of fishing effort between resources andoceans, and depletion of many highly valuable resources...The fact that uncontrolled development offishing effort leads to disaster has now been widelyacknowledged in the scientific literature, and by high level fisheries management and developmentauthorities.

Source: Roodard. Review of the State of World Fishery Resources. Agriculture of the United Nations. Rome 1990.


22D

Where else does depletion occur?

• Groundwater• Forests• Soil• Game Animals• Ozone• Other Renewable Resources


23D

The Fisheries System

• Principal interactions- Fish/Regeneration- Fish/Catch- Catch/Investment/Ships

• Other influences- Auction- Environment- Price


24D

The Fisheries System: Fish

TOTAL CATCH

FISH

DENSITY

REGENERATION

+-

+-, +(+-, )


25D

The Fisheries System: Catch

PROFIT

SHIPS

INVESTMENT

DESIRED GROWTH

INCOME

FISH PRICE

TOTAL CATCH

FISH

DENSITY

CATCH PER SHIP

OPERATING COSTS

PURCHASE AND CONSTRUCTION

COSTS

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

++ +++

-

(-)

(-)

(+)

CATCH

+


26D

The Fisheries System: Investment

PROFIT

SHIPS

INVESTMENT

DESIRED GROWTH

INCOME

FISH PRICE

TOTAL CATCH

OPERATING COSTS


COSTS

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

++ +

(-)

(+)

(+)

+,-


27D

The Fisheries System Structure

PROFIT

SHIPS

INVESTMENT

DESIRED GROWTH

INCOME

FISH PRICE

TOTAL CATCH

FISH

DENSITY

CATCH PER SHIP

REGENERATION

OPERATING COSTS


COSTS

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

++ +++

+-

+-, +

(-)

(+-, )

(-)

(+)

(+)

+,-


28D

What else affects the fisheries system?

• Foreign competition• Technology• Regulation• Pollution• Weather (El Nino)


29D

Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness

0 MAXIMUM0

HIGH TECHNOLOGY

LOW TECHNOLOGY

CATCH PER

SHIP-YEAR

FISH DENSITY


30D

Is there anything wrong with depletion?

• Present value of the fishery• Local vs. global strategies• Impacts on linked ecosystems• Equity of resource distribution


31D

Dietary Importance of Fish

Source: Fisheries at the Limit. 1993.

In all, marine and inland fisheries provide nearly 30 percent of Asia’s animal protein, in Africa the proportion is 21 percent, in Latin America 8 percent.


32D

What can be done?

• Partition the seas• Establish quotas• Farm fish• Move down food chain• Change consumption preferences• Reduce destruction and pollution of

fisheries• Limit ship fleets, technology• Develop better methods for stock

assessment• Change social values and economic

incentives


33D

Alternative Catch Policies

1

2

3Maximum

Sustainable Catch

TIME

CATCH

-

-

-

-


Documents

1D What Happened? Winner's strategy Optimal individual strategy Optimal group strategy Resource behavior Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows