1 What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently? February 2005 Public Meeting on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region

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What If… The Washington Region

Grew Differently?

February 2005

Public Meeting on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios

National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board

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Study of “What If” Scenarios

What if job and housing growth were

shifted? What if new roads or transit were built?

How would 2030 travel conditions

change?

Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.”

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Historical and Forecast Trends

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The Washington Region Approximately 3,000

square miles

Includes 4.5 million people and 2.8 million jobs

The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) prepares a financially constrained, 30-year transportation plan for the region

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Growth 1970 - 2000

50%

87%

Population

Employment

Employment is Growing Faster than Population

Forecast Trends 2000 - 2030

36%

48%

Population

Employment

1970: 3 Million 2000: 4.5 Million

1970: 1.5 Million 2000: 2.8 Million



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Forecast Trends 2000 - 2030

37%

16%

Daily VehicleMiles Traveled

Freeway andArterial Lane

Miles

The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace

2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million

2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles

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Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for Maintenance

Little money is available for new transportation projects

23%

77%

New Roads and Transit*

Operations & Preservation*

* Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan

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Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and GoEvening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030

2 0 3 02 0 3 0Based on the 2003 CLRPBased on the 2003 CLRP

Congested Flow Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph)(Average Speed 30 to 50 mph)

Stop and Go Conditions Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph)(Average Speed < 30 mph)

2000 2030

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Land Use Scenarios What are the key issues?

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Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania

Forecast Job

GrowthForecast

Household Growth

Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs

Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands)

Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household

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What if more people who worked here lived here?

VA

WV

Balt.Scenario #1:

“More Households” Increase household

growth to balance forecast job growth

Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters”

Regional Activity ClusterIncrease household growth by 200,000

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Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs

Inner jurisdictions – most job growth

Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth

The average commute is more than 30 minutes.

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What if people lived closer to their jobs?

Regional Activity ClusterShift 84,000 households

Scenario #2A:

“Households In” Shift household growth

to inner jurisdictions (to get people closer to jobs)

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What if jobs were located closer to where

people live?

Regional Activity ClusterShift 82,000 jobs

Scenario #2B:

“Jobs Out” Shift job growth to outer

jurisdictions (to get jobs closer to new housing)

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20%

1%

West East

Issue #3: East-West Divide

Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000

A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western

parts of the region

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Issue #3: East-West DivideWest-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour

Average Commute Time

Morning Rush Hour

Up to 30 minutes

Up to 40 minutes

Over 40 minutes

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What if there were more development on the

eastern side of the region?

Regional Activity ClusterShift 57,000 households and 114,000 jobs

Scenario #3: “Region Undivided” Shift job and household

growth from West to East

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Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas

HouseholdGrowth2010 to2030

Inside Transit Station Areas

Outside Transit Station Areas

EmploymentGrowth2010 to2030

30%

70%

20%

80%

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What if people lived and worked closer to transit?

Metro Rail

Commuter Rail

Bus

Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs

Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented” Locate job and household

growth around transit stations

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Analyzing the Scenarios

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Vehicle Miles of Travel Per Person Forecast Change in VMT per capita, 2010-2030

3%3%3%3%3%

-6%-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Baseline MoreHouseholds

HouseholdsIn

Jobs Out RegionUndivided

TransitOriented

VMT per capita in 2010: 23.4 miles per person per day

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Under the “More Households” Scenario, the average person would drive

two miles less per day.

2030 Baseline: 24.2 miles/ person

2030 Scenario #1: 22.1 miles/ person

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Transit Use Forecast percentage-point change In transit mode share, 2010-2030

1.4%

1.0%

1.3%

0.6%

1.5%1.4%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%


HouseholdsIn


TransitOriented

Transit mode-share in 2010: 16%

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Morning CongestionForecast change in lane-miles of peak-period AM

congestion, 2010-2030

43%

49%

39%

45% 47%43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


HouseholdsIn


TransitOriented

Lane miles of congestion in 2010: 1,700 miles

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What do the scenarios tell us?

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The scenarios show some favorable trends.

Transit trips would increase.

The growth in morning

congestion would be slowed.

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Why aren’t the impacts

greater?

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Most jobs and housing for 2030 are already in place.

Households in 2000

Growth

by 2010

Growth

by 2030

Affected by scenarios

2030 Households

72%

13%

15%

Underway or in the pipeline

Already in place

(Of course, some of this might be rezoned or redeveloped in the future…)

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Significant change takes time.

Courtesy of WMATA

Scenarios only look out to 2030, but impacts may be greatest in 2040, 2050, and beyond

For example, just look at how long it took to get Metro in place . . .

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Scenario impacts may be large locally, but small regionally.

Before

After

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Is there a way to magnify the impacts?

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= ?+New

roads, bridges, transit

Future stages of the study will include transportation scenarios…

The impacts might be greater if transportation improvements

were added.For example:

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Impacts might be even greater if we combined scenarios.

For example, what if we combined:• Scenario #3 (Region Undivided) • Scenario #4 (Transit Oriented Development) • and transportation improvements ?

+ = ?Future stages of the study will look at such combinations…

New roads, bridges, transit+

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Next Study Phase

Alternative transportation scenarios New rail lines? New bus routes? New roads? New bridges?

Combining transportation and land use scenariosBaseline

Alternative Land Use Scenarios

3Alternative Transportation

Scenarios

4Combining Scenarios

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For more information, contact the Transportation Planning Board:

(202) 962-3200

[email protected]

www.mwcog.org/transportation

Documents

1 What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently? February 2005 Public Meeting on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region