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Vulnerability of Pakistan Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change Hazardsto Climate Change Hazards

Dr. M. Mohsin IqbalDr. M. Mohsin IqbalGlobal Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)

IslamabadIslamabad

“National Disaster Awareness Day -2009” Convention Centre, Islamabad

08 October 2009

22

Climate ChangeClimate Change

““the greatest challenge facing the world at the the greatest challenge facing the world at the beginning of the century.” beginning of the century.”

World Economic ForumWorld Economic ForumDavos, Switzerland 2000Davos, Switzerland 2000(www.weforum.org/) (www.weforum.org/)

““the most important long-term issue which we the most important long-term issue which we face as a global community”.face as a global community”.

Jack Straw,Jack Straw,British Foreign SecretaryBritish Foreign Secretary(Daily NEWS 15 May 2004)(Daily NEWS 15 May 2004)

44

Climate Change: Some Climate Change: Some DefinitionsDefinitions

Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc.

Climate: Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3 decades.

Climate Change: Climate Change in excess of natural variability, attributable to human activity.

060212/0051

66

343 W/m2

30%

Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse Effect

The Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in The Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;

If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average temperature of the Earth would have been temperature of the Earth would have been -18-18ooCC (253°K) instead of the present (253°K) instead of the present 1515ooCC;;

Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane, Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;

It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is causing Global Warming and Climate Change.causing Global Warming and Climate Change.

Natural Climate Variability

Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution

CLIMATE CHANGE

Global Warming

Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution

Melting of Glaciers & Snow

Sea level Rise

Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather

Events

IMPACTS

Uncertainty in Water Availability

Decrease in Crop Yields

Newer perspective for sources of energy

Loss of Biodiversity

IncreasedHealth Risks

Spiraling Population

High pace of Industrialization

Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in

Industry & Transport

Deforestation for Agriculture and

Urbanization

Climate ChangeNatural + Anthropogenic

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• 0.6 0.6 0 0 C increase in average global temperature during the last C increase in average global temperature during the last century century (11 of last 12 years being warmest since 1850, with 1998 being on top.)(11 of last 12 years being warmest since 1850, with 1998 being on top.)

• Increase by 1.1-6.4 Increase by 1.1-6.4 0 0 C projected over the 21C projected over the 21stst Century, with most Century, with most likely range being 1.8-4.0 likely range being 1.8-4.0 0 0 C ;C ;

• Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world regions;regions;

• Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably;cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably;

• Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic;particularly the Arctic;

• Substantial rise in sea level.Substantial rise in sea level.

Some Major Findings of IPCC Some Major Findings of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007

Global ResponseGlobal Response

• Climate Change is being addressed by several Climate Change is being addressed by several national research programs in all national research programs in all developed developed countriescountries::

• A number of A number of developing countriesdeveloping countries are also actively are also actively pursuing climate change research, e.g.pursuing climate change research, e.g.

• In South Asia region, India has some 20 establishments In South Asia region, India has some 20 establishments and Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are also engaged and Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are also engaged in CC research;in CC research;

• China has a large number of establishments engaged in China has a large number of establishments engaged in CC research. CC research.

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2001:2001: Establishment of a multi-disciplinary effort for Climate Establishment of a multi-disciplinary effort for Climate Change research proposed by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Special Change research proposed by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister;Advisor to the Prime Minister;

May 2002:May 2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) established with seed money provided by Ministry of Sc & established with seed money provided by Ministry of Sc & Tech; GCISC now being supported by Planning Commission.Tech; GCISC now being supported by Planning Commission.

January 2005:January 2005: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat.Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat.

Dec., 2006Dec., 2006 : : GCISC attached to National Centre for Physics GCISC attached to National Centre for Physics as an autonomous organization.as an autonomous organization.

Oct., 2008: Oct., 2008: Planning Commission established a Task Force Planning Commission established a Task Force on Climate Change with GCISC as its Secretariat.on Climate Change with GCISC as its Secretariat.

Climate Change Science Studies in Pakistan

Pakistan, like other countries in South Asia, is Pakistan, like other countries in South Asia, is most vulnerable to Climate Change, because : most vulnerable to Climate Change, because :

• A large part of its economy is based on agriculture A large part of its economy is based on agriculture which is climate sensitive;which is climate sensitive;

• It has low technological and scientific base and It has low technological and scientific base and have limited access to knowledge; have limited access to knowledge;

• It has low capacity to adapt to changes resulting It has low capacity to adapt to changes resulting from CC; from CC;

• It lacks financial and institutional capacity. It lacks financial and institutional capacity.

Vulnerability of PakistanVulnerability of Pakistan

Challenges of Climate ChangeChallenges of Climate Change

Water ChallengeWater Challenge Food Security challengeFood Security challenge Climate Extreme Events HazardsClimate Extreme Events Hazards Impacts on other EcosystemsImpacts on other Ecosystems

VVulnerability of Water Resources to ulnerability of Water Resources to Climate ChangeClimate Change

Increased variability of Monsoon More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers

threatening IRS Flows Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture,

water for industrial and domestic sectors. Increased risks of floods and droughts

Melting of Glaciers in PakistanMelting of Glaciers in Pakistan

Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water storage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAFstorage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAF

Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.the flows from UIB.

International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999(1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part ): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.

World Bank (2006World Bank (2006): ): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.fifty years.

Projected Changes in HKH Glaciers Projected Changes in HKH Glaciers

IPCC AR4 (2007): IPCC AR4 (2007): Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. glaciers recede.

Hewitt (2005):Hewitt (2005): reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers. glaciers.

These conflicting findings make the impact of climate changeThese conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain. on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.

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Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru,

1978

2002

1818

The Pasterze, Austria's longest glacier, was about 2 kilometers longer in the 19th C. but

is now completely out of sight from this overlook on the Grossglockner High Road.

1875 2004

1919

Mount Kiliminjaro, Kenya, AfricaMount Kiliminjaro, Kenya, Africa

20002000 19931993

2020

Changes in Gangotri Glacier, Indian Himalaya

This composite ASTER image shows how the Gangotri Glacier terminus has retracted since 1780. Contour lines are approximate. (Image by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory; based on data provided by the ASTER Science Team; glacier retreat boundaries courtesy the La2020nd Processes Distributed Active Archive Center)

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1989-10-09 2000-10-31

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1992-10-15 2000-10-29060212/0029

GLOFS in PakistanGLOFS in Pakistan

As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:

property, property, farms, farms, socio-economic infrastructure socio-economic infrastructure and livelihood of mountain people and livelihood of mountain people and downstream communities.  and downstream communities. 

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2424

2525

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GLOF-induced damages at Chut Ghusth, Ghulkin

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Web Source: http://pamirtimes.net/2008/06/page/3/

28283d view of Main Biafo Glacier (Shigar River Basin) with overlaid digitized boundary of the glacier showing the changes in the main glacier stream.

Temporal Change Detection In Biafo Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan.

Landsat

image;Resolution 30m

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Glacier Area Currently under Study at GCISC

Hunza River Basin

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Retreat of the Helheim Glacier Greenland

2005

2001

2003

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There is an urgent need toThere is an urgent need to Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water

resources and storage requirements in resources and storage requirements in the wake of climate change threat the wake of climate change threat

Take appropriate ameliorative measures Take appropriate ameliorative measures well in time to avoid calamites.well in time to avoid calamites.

The Water Challenge: Conclusion

Food Security ChallengeFood Security Challenge

Agriculture Systems in PakistanAgriculture Systems in Pakistan

Irrigated AgricultureIrrigated Agriculture Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to

national productionnational production

Rained and Dryland Agriculture Rained and Dryland Agriculture Contributes <30% to national production.Contributes <30% to national production.

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate ChangeClimate Change

Irrigated areas: Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate changeto glacier melt in the wake of climate change

Semi-arid and Arid areas: Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in Vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.

Both of the irrigated and dry areas: Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable vulnerable to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etcwaves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc

Impacts of Climate Change on CropsImpacts of Climate Change on Crops

Shortening of growing season lengthShortening of growing season length Loss in yieldLoss in yield Heat stress at sensitive growth stages, Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,

e.g. flowering, grain initiation stagese.g. flowering, grain initiation stages Increased pest/disease incidenceIncreased pest/disease incidence Increased crop water requirementsIncreased crop water requirements

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 1 2 3 4 5

Temperature Change (oC)

Whe

at Y

ield

(kg

/ha)

NorthernMountainous(Humid)

Northern Sub-Mountainous(Sub-humid)

Southern Plains(Semi arid)

Southern Plains(Arid)

Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistanagro-climatic zones of Pakistan

Flash floods, Flash floods, Droughts, Droughts, Heavy precipitation events, Heavy precipitation events, Hailstorms, Hailstorms, Dust storms, Dust storms, Cyclones, Cyclones, Heat /Cold wavesHeat /Cold waves

Climate Extreme EventsClimate Extreme Events

Climate Extreme Events in PakistanClimate Extreme Events in Pakistan20092009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at

Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mm mm occurred in 1977occurred in 1977

20072007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature temperature

of 48 C was recorded on 9of 48 C was recorded on 9thth June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 878 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8 thth June, 1929 June, 1929

20072007 Two super cyclones namely Gonu of Cat-5 and Yemyin of Cat-1Two super cyclones namely Gonu of Cat-5 and Yemyin of Cat-1 developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran coast coast

and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least during and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least during the the previous century finds no such events occurring twice in a monthprevious century finds no such events occurring twice in a month

20062006 In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than 185 185 deaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In deaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In neighboring neighboring eastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that eastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that claimed claimed at at least 35 lives (Associated Press)least 35 lives (Associated Press)

20052005 Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan in March. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. There March. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. There were more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistanwere more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistan

Recent Climate Extremes in PakistanRecent Climate Extremes in Pakistan20052005 During June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainous During June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainous

areas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and brought areas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and brought extensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral extensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral

riversrivers

20052005 Heavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as Kashmir Heavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as Kashmir region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486 region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486 people during second week of Februarypeople during second week of February

20042004 Unusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir region Unusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir region along along the border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some 20,000 the border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some 20,000

nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir.nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir.

20032003 Heavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid February Heavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid February was was

responsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistan province. Flashresponsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistan province. Flash

flooding washed away parts of roads and highways.flooding washed away parts of roads and highways.

20032003 At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153 in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153

fatalitiesfatalities

in the Sindh provincein the Sindh province

20032003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached reached 52°C at Jacobabad on the 552°C at Jacobabad on the 5thth; normal highs in early June are ; normal highs in early June are near near 44°C44°C

20012001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of JulyJuly

1999-20011999-2001 History’s worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of History’s worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of surrounding countriessurrounding countries

Continued:Continued:

Buffaloes on Roof TopBuffaloes on Roof Top(once a joke, now a reality)(once a joke, now a reality)

Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah ( 23rd July 2001)( 23rd July 2001)

Flood Stranded People on the HighwayFlood Stranded People on the Highway

Rescuing the drowning fellowsRescuing the drowning fellows

Impacts on other EcosystemsImpacts on other Ecosystems

Land Degradation in PakistanLand Degradation in Pakistan

Water Erosion Water Erosion : 17%: 17% Wind Erosion Wind Erosion : 8%: 8% Salinity and SodicitySalinity and Sodicity : 9%: 9% Waterlogging Waterlogging : 5%: 5% Low organic matter Low organic matter (<1%)(<1%) : 96%: 96%

Impacts on Land degradationImpacts on Land degradation

Land degradation enhanced by climate Land degradation enhanced by climate change due tochange due to

Wind and water erosion, as a result of low Wind and water erosion, as a result of low and high rainfalland high rainfall

Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of greater evaporation from land surface.greater evaporation from land surface.

Vulnerability of Mountain RegionVulnerability of Mountain Region

Enhanced de-glaciationEnhanced de-glaciation Loss of biodiversityLoss of biodiversity Overall increasing trend in rainfall leading Overall increasing trend in rainfall leading

to surface runoff, soil erosion, landslides, to surface runoff, soil erosion, landslides, sedimentation load downstreamsedimentation load downstream

Positive impact on yield of wheatPositive impact on yield of wheat Prospects of two crops a yearProspects of two crops a year

Coastal ZonesCoastal Zones

Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove forests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish and forests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish and infrastructureinfrastructure

Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will pose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water and livelihood pose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water and livelihood of dependant communities, thousands of hectares of of dependant communities, thousands of hectares of fertile soil will become salinefertile soil will become saline

Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea level will continue to rise for centuries beyond 2100 because of the long response time of the global ocean system.

Coping with the Climate ChangeCoping with the Climate Change Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of

vulnerable areas and communitiesvulnerable areas and communities Preparedness for disaster and risk managementPreparedness for disaster and risk management Development of early warning systemDevelopment of early warning system Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra-Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra-

structural changes structural changes Developing new and innovative farm production practices, Developing new and innovative farm production practices,

including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their

active participation in vulnerability assessment and active participation in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation implementation of adaptation

Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors all scales, levels and sectors

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Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as:Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches,

Floods, Droughts and Cyclones. Floods, Droughts and Cyclones.

Climate Change will also adversely affect various sectors of Climate Change will also adversely affect various sectors of Pakistan’s economy. Pakistan’s economy.

Realistic assessment of the impacts and implementation of Realistic assessment of the impacts and implementation of appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.

Preparedness for disaster/ risk management and development Preparedness for disaster/ risk management and development of early warning system will contribute to safeguarding the of early warning system will contribute to safeguarding the vulnerable communities/sectors.vulnerable communities/sectors.

ConclusionsConclusions

Thank youThank you