Climate Change Projections Over South Asia Under SRES A2 Scenario Using Regional Climate Model RegCM3(GCISC-RR-08)

8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections Over South Asia Under SRES A2 Scenario Using Regional Climate Model RegCM3(GCIS

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31/59

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slpe mhp ceeg kcpes~ea lg Chgoihaepm) wml`m lp hskuga 3 $ 3'5 @) hga pldlihs shgoe lp kcpes~ea

k~es _epqesg Omhqp kn Lgalh'

Lg `kdvhslgo N3 pèghslkp nks E@MHD5 hga NÔ@D) E@MHD5 lp du`m whsdes hp

`kdvhsea qk qme NÔ@D' Qme `mhgoe lg qedveshquse hq qme qkvkoshvml`hii| `kdvie}

seolkgp lp mlom hp `kdvhsea qk kqmes seolkgp: qmlp dh| ce ce`hupe kn qme ildlqhqlkgp kn qme

dkaei qk sepki~e qme `kdvie} qkvkoshvm| kn qme seolkg'

Nlouse852 Pehpkghi `mhgoe lg puddes -MHP, qedveshquse -@,: -h, E@MHD5$Ni -c,E@MHD5$N3) -`, NÔ@D$N3 plduihqea c| Seo@D0

5'8'0'3 _lgqes -ABND,

Nlo' 8> sevsepegqp qme h~eshoe `mhgoe lg qedveshquse nks wlgqes -ABND, pehpkg nks qme NL

hga N3 nuqusep nks E@MHD5 hga N3 nuquse nks NÔ@D k~es Pkuqm Hplh' Nlo L>-h,

sevsepegqp qme E@MHD5$NL nks wlgqes -ABND, pehpkg' Qme dh}ldud lg`sehpe kn hckuq 3

$ 3'?5 @ mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es qme aepesq seolkg hga Gksqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg' Qme

36


35/59

86'

whsdlgo kn hckuq 3'35 $ 3'?5@ mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es Hnomhglpqhg seolkg' K~es Lgalh)

qme dh}ldud slpe lp hckuq 3@) wml`m lp iepp hp `kdvhsea qk qme vskbe`qea qedveshquse

k~es Vhjlpqhg' Lgqesepqlgoi|) qme slpe k~es qme Mldhih|hg seolkg lp hipk mlom) wml`m dh|

`hqhi|re qme deiqlgo kn lè k~es qme dkugqhlgp' Lg Chgoihaepm hga seolkgp kn Gevhi

cksaeslgo Lgalh) qme ~hiue shgoep nskd 8'5 $ 8'?5 @ wmlie lg qme gksqm kn Gevhi) qme slpe

kn hckuq 3'3P $ 3'P @ mhp ceeg vseal`qea c| qme dkaei' Lg Psl Ihgjh) qme slpe lg

qedveshquse lp hckuq 8'?5 @' E@MHDP$N3 -Nlo 8>-c,, pmkwp dkse whsdlgo k~es

Vhjlpqhg' Qme slpe kn hckuq 1 $ > @ mhp ceeg plduihqea c| qme dkaei' Qme lg`sehpe lgqedveshquse k~es gksqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg lp dkse hp `kdvhsea qk qme kqmes seolkgp'

Qmlp pmkwp qmhq lq dh| ieha qk qme lg`sehpe lg qme nsexueg`| kn e}qsede e~egqp lg qme seolkg' Lg

Lgalh) qme whsdlgo lp dkse lg ègqshi hga pkuqmwepqesg vhsqp kn Lgalh' Lg Gevhi)

qme whsdlgo lp dkse k~es qme gksqm kn Gevhi) wmesehp iepp whsdlgo lp kcpes~ea lg

pkuqmesg Gevhi' Lg Chgoihaepm) qme lg`sehpe lg qedveshquse lp hckuq 0'5 $ 1 @'

NÔ@D$N3 -Nlo 8>-`,, vskbe`qp iepp whsdlgo hp `kdvhsea qk E@MHDP$N3 nks qme

wmkie akdhlg' Lg Vhjlpqhg) qme whsdlgo kn hckuq 1 $ 5 @ mhp ceeg plduihqea c| qme

dkaei k~es qme aepesq seolkg) vhsq kn Plgam vsk~lgè) hga k~es qme Gksqmesg seolkg kn

Vhjlpqhg' Qmlp sepuiq lp `kgplpqegq wlqm qme vskbe`qlkg dhae c| qme E@MHD$ N3' Lg Lgalh)

qme slpe kn hckuq 0 $ 1 @ mhp ceeg plduihqea c| qme dkaei' K~es Chgoihaepm) hg lg`sehpe

kn hckuq 3'5$ 0 @ mhp ceeg vseal`qea c| qme dkaei' K~es Gevhi qme slpe lg qedveshquse lp

dkse k~es qme gksqm kn Gevhi hp `kdvhsea qk qme pkuqmesg seolkg kn Gevhi'

Nlouse 8>2 Pehpkghi `mhgoe lg wlgqes -ABND, qedveshquse -6@,: -h, E@MHDP$Ni) -c,

E@MHD5$N3) -`, NÔ@D$N3 plduihqea c| Seo@D0

38


36/59

5'8'1 Pehpkghi @mhgoep lg Vse`lvlqhqlkg

5'8'1'8 Puddes -BBHP,

E@MHD5$Ni -Nlo 8?-h,, pmkwp hg lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg kn hckuq 86 $ 56% k~es qme Gksqmesg

Chik`mlpqhg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg) wmesehp h ae`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg kn hckuq 86 % mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es

pkuqmesg vhsqp kn Vhjlpqhg' Hg lg`sehpe kn hckuq 56 % mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es gksqm wepqesg seolkg kn

Lgalh) hga hckuq 86 % lg`sehpe mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es _epqesg Omhqp kn Lgalh' K~es Gevhi) 86$ 36%

lg`sehpe kn vse`lvlqhqlkg mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es wepqesg vhsq kn Gevhi' Nks Chgoihaepm hga sepq kn qme

akdhlg) gk ploglnl`hgq `mhgoe lg nuquse vse`lvlqhqlkg mhp ceeg kcpes~ea'

Lg `hpe kn E@MHD5$N3 -Nlo 8?-c,,) qme dkaei pmkwp h ae`sehpe kn hckuq 866% lg vse`lvlqhqlkg lg qme

pkuqmesg hsehp kn Vhjlpqhg wmlie gk ploglnl`hgq `mhgoe lp kcpes~ea k~es qme gksqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg'

Qmese lp gk `kgplaeshcie `mhgoe lg nuquse vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es sepq kn qme akdhlg e}èvq nks pkde vhsqp kn

Gevhi) Chgoihaepm hga Lgalh' NÔ@D$N3 -Nlo 8?-`,,) vseal`qp h ae`sehpe kn hckuq 56% lg qme gksqmesg

hsehp kn Vhjlpqhg hga gk ploglnl`hgq `mhgoe k~es qme sepq kn Vhjlpqhg' Qme dkaei mhp hipk plduihqea

lg`sehpep k~es Chgoihaepm) _epqesg Omhqp kn Lgalh) pkde ègqshi vhsq kn Lgalh) hga gksqm wepqesg vhsq kn

Gevhi' Qme `kdvhslpkg kn E@MHD5$N3 hga NÔ@D$N3 pmkwp qme pvhqlhi vhqqesg kn `mhgoep lg

vse`lvlqhqlkg lp xulqe pldlihs' Qme `mhgoe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg lg ckqm qme `hpep lp vskdlgegq lg pkde vhsqp kn

qme akdhlg hga qme sepuiqp peed qk ce `kgplpqegq lg ckqm qme `hpep' Nks qme sedhlglgo akdhlg) qmese lp gk

`kgplaeshcie `mhgoe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg'E@MHD5 qusgp kuq qk ce weqqes qmeg NÔ@D'

Nlouse 8?2 Pehpkghi `mhgoe lg puddes -BBHP, vse`lvlqhqlkg -%,: -h, E@MHD5$Ni)

-c, E@MHD5$N3) -`, NÔ@D$N3 k~es Pkuqm Hplh plduihqea c| Seo@D088'


37/59

83'5'8'1'3 _lgqes -ABND,

Lg wlgqes) nks E@MHDP$Ni) qme dkaei vseal`qp h ae`sehpe kn uvqk 06% lg vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es

ègqshi hga Pkuqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg hp pmkwg lg Nlo' 8= -h,) wmesehp hg lg`sehpe kn uvqk 36

% mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es gksqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg' Qme lg`sehpe kn uv qk 06 % mhp ceeg

kcpes~ea k~es dkpq kn Lgalh hga gksqmesg Vhjlpqhg wmlie hg lg`sehpe kn hidkpq PK% lp kcpes~ea

k~es Chgoihaepm' Qme dh}ldud lg`sehpe kn uv qk 366% lp epqldhqea c| qme dkaei lg qme

vsk~lgèp kn Vugbhc hga Plgam hga aepesqp kn Vhjlpqhg hga Lgalh wmesehp nks puddes) qme dkaeipmkwp h ae`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg nks qme phde seolkg wml`m dehgp qmhq we wkuia mh~e dkse

shlgp lg wlgqes lg aepesqp hga as| `kgalqlkgp lg puddes' Nks Psl Ihgjh dkaei ol~ep ae`sehpe k

hckuq 86 36 % lg vse`lvlqhqlkg lg wlgqes'

E@MHDP$N3 -Nlo i=-c ,,) vseal`qp hg lg`sehpe kn hckuq 8 6$ 16 % lg ègqshi hga wepqesg

vhsqp kn Lgalh' K~es Chgoihaepm) hg lg`sehpe kn hckuq 86 36 % mhp ceeg vseal`qea c| qme

dkaei' H ae`sehpe kn hckuq 3P% mhp ceeg vskbe`qea k~es ghsskw pqslv pqhsqlgo nskd

gksqmesg hsehp kn Vhjlpqhg hga e}qegalgo uv qk Gevhi' Lq dehgp qmhq lg qme nlspq mhin kn qmlp

ègqus| Chgoihaepm) Gevhi hga gksqmesg hsehp kn Vhjlpqhg wkuia e}veslegè dkse shlgp

cuq lg qme ihqes mhin) as| `kgalqlkgp wkuia vse~hli lg qmepe seolkgp' Qme sepuiqp nks Psl

Ihgjh hse phde hp lg `hpe kn E@MHDP$Ni' NÔ@D$N3 -Nlo 8=-`,, ugaesepqldhqep vse`lvlqhqlkg `kdvhsea qk E@MHDP$N3 nks qme wmkie akdhlg' NÔ@D ol~ep 3P qk 56

% lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg nks Psl Ihgjh hga lg pkde vhsqp kn gksqmesg Vhjlpqhg wmesehp

E@MHDP pmkwp hckuq 35 % ae`sehpe nks qme phde seolkgp' Pldlihsi| nks ègqshi

Vhjlpqhg) NÔ@D ol~ep h ae`sehpe kn hckuq 35% wmlie E@MHDP ol~ep hg lg`sehpe kn uv

qk 866%' Hp nks hp sedhlglgo vhsq kn akdhlg lp `kgèsgea) NÔ@D vskbe`qp 35 qk 866 %

lg`sehpe k~es dkpq kn Lgalh) uv qk PK% ae`sehpe k~es Gevhi hga 3P% ae`sehpe lg Chgoihaepm'

Nlouse 8=2 Pehpkghi `mhgoep lg wlgqes-ABND,vse`lvlqhqlkg -%,: -h, E@MHDP$Ni) -c,

E@MHDP$N3) -`, NÔ@D$N3 k~es Pkuqm Hplh plduihqea c| Seo@D0

30


38/59

80'81'85'8>'>' Nuquse Vskbe`qlkgp k~es Vhjlpqhg

>'8 Hgguhi @mhgoep lg Qedveshquse

Nlo' 8< pmkwp qme nuquse vskbe`qlkgp k~es Vhjlpqhg' K~es qme Pkuqm Hplhg akdhlg) qme

Vhjlpqhg seolkg whp dhpjea qk nkùp `mhgoep nks qme nuquse ìldhqe' Qmlp hghi|plp meivea

qk e}hdlge qme ìldhqe `mhgoep k~es Vhjlpqhg qk meiv pqua| qmels ldvh`q k~es whqes

sepkusèp hga hoslùiquse' Lg `hpe kn E@MHD5$Ni -Nlo 8


39/59

8?'>'3 Hgguhi @mhgoep lg Vse`lvlqhqlkg

K~eshii vse`lvlqhqlkg vhqqesg lg hii qme e}vesldegqp lp pldlihs -Nlo 36-h) c) `,,: mkwe~es

qmese lp h alnnesegè lg qme dhoglquae' E@MHD5$NL) -Nlo 36-h,, ala gkq pmkw h

ploglnl`hgq `mhgoe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es Vhjlpqhg kg hgguhi chplp' Qme pvhqlhi vhqqesg

pmkwp hg lg`sehpe kn vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es Gksqmesg seolkg hga ae`sehpe kn vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es

Pkuqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg cuq qme lg` ehpe lp gkq ploglnl`hgq' K~eshii hg lg`sehpe kn hckuq

5 $ 85% lg alnnesegq seolkgp lg Gksqmesg hsehp mhp ceeg vseal`qea c| qme dkaei nks qme NL)

wmesehp h ae`sehpe kn 86 $ 36 % mhp ceeg vseal`qea c| qme dkaei lg alnnesegq seolkg k

Pkuqmesg Vhjlpqhg'

E@MHD5$N3 -Nlo' 36-c,, mhp vseal`qea hg lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg kn hckuq 5 $ 36 % lg

Gksqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg) wmesehp h ae`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg kn hckuq 5 $ 56% lg

Pkuqmesg seolkg) 5 $ 06 % lg @egqshi Vugbhc . Chik`mlpqhg seolkg mhp ceeg vseal`qea c|

qme dkaei Lg pkde vhsqp kn Chik`mlpqhg hga G_NV) hg lg`sehpe kn vse`lvlqhqlkg kn hckuq

86$ 36 % mhp ceeg vseal`qea' Lg pkuqmesg Vugbhc) qme ae`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg mhp ceeg

vseal`qea c| qme dkaei) wmesehp gk ploglnl`hgq `mhgoe mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es Dkgpkkg

ceiq lg Vugbhc seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg' NÔ@D$N3 -Nlo' 36-`,,) vskbe`qp h ae`sehpe c| hckuq

36 $ 06 % k~es qme aepesq hsehp) 5 $ 36 % k~es ègqshi hga pkuqmesg Vugbhc hga hckuq 5$

86% ae`sehpe k~es pkde vhsqp kn Chik`mlpqhg' Hg lg`sehpe kn hckuq 5 $ 36 % mhp ceeg vseal`qea c| qme dkaei k~es Gksqmesg seolkg hga pkde vhsqp kn qme G_NV seolkg kn

Vhjlpqhg' Gk ploglnl`hgq `mhgoe mhp ceeg kcpes~ea lg qme Dkgpkkg ceiq kn Vhjlpqhg hq

hgguhi p`hie'

Nlouse 362 Hgguhi `mhgoe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg -%,: -h, E@MHD5$Ni) -c,, E@MHD5$N3) -`,

NÔ@D$N3 k~es Vhjlpqhg plduihqea c| Seo@D0

35


40/59

8='>'0 Pehpkghi @mhgoep lg Qedveshquse

>'0'8 Puddes -BBHP,

E@MHDP$N8 -Nlo' 38-h) pmkwp h slpe lg qedveshquse kn hckuq 8'< $ 0'? @ hii k~es

Vhjlpqhg' Qme dh}ldud slpe lg qedveshquse mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es gksqm$wepqesg seolkg

kn Vhjlpqhg' Qme slpe kn hckuq 3'P $ 0'8 @ mhp ceeg plduihqea c| qme dkaei k~es

Chik`mlpqhg) aepesq hsehp hga vhsq kn Plgam Vsk~lgè'

E@MHDP$N3) -Nlo' 3 8 -c, vskbe`qp h slpe kn hckuq 3 $ = @ hii k~es Vhjlpqhg' Qme osehqes

slpe lp kcpes~ea k~es Gksqmesg seolkg hga aepesq hsehp kn Vhjlpqhg' Lg gksqm wepqesg vhsq) h

slpe kn hckuq P $ = @ lp kcpes~ea) wmesehp lg qme ehpqesg vhsq) qme slpe lp hskuga 0'5 1

@' Lg Vugbhc seolkg) qme dh}ldud slpe kn qedveshquse lp hckuq 1'5@'

NÔ@D$N3 -Nlo 3L-` vskbe`qp iepp whsdlgo `kdvhsea qk qme E@MHDP$N3' NÔ@D

hipk vseal`qp osehqes whsdlgo k~es Gksqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg ilje E@MHDP' H slpe kn

hckuq 1'5 $ > @ mhp ceeg plduihqea c| qme dkaei Qme slpe kn hckuq 1 $ 5 @ mhp ceeg

kcpes~ea nks qme N3 nuquse'

Nlouse 382 Pehpkghi @mhgoe lg Qedveshquse @@, nks puddes: -h, E@MHDP$N8) -c,

E@MHDP$N3) -`, NÔ@D$N3 k~es Vhjlpqhg plduihqea c| Seo@D0

3>


41/59

8


42/59

36'>'1 Pehpkghi @mhgoep lg Vse`lvlqhqlkg

>'1'8 Puddes -BBHP,

Nlo' 30 pmkwp qme `mhgoep lg vse`lvlqhqlkg nks Ni hga N3 nuqusep nks puddes -MHP, k~es

Vhjlpqhg' E@MHD5$Ni -Nlo 30-h,, pmkwp h ae`sehpe kn hckuq 5 $ 36 % lg vse`lvlqhqlkg

k~es pkuqmesg seolkg hga vhsqp kn gksqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg lg puddes pehpkg) wmesehp

hg lg`sehpe kn hckuq 5 $ 56 % lg vse`lvlqhqlkg lg vhsqp kn G_NV seolkg) vhsqp kChik`mlpqhg) hga lg qme Dkgpkkg ceiq k~es Vhjlpqhg mhp ceeg kcpes~ea' Lg kqmes seolkgp)

gk ploglnl`hgq `mhgoe mhp ceeg kcpes~ea k~es Vhjlpqhg'

Lg `hpe kn E@MHD5$N3 -Nlo 30-c,,) qme dkaei liiupqshqep h ae`sehpe kn hckuq >6 % lg

vse`lvlqhqlkg lg aepesq hsehp kn Plgam seolkg) hga pkuqm wepqesg vhsqp kn Chik`mlpqhg' Qme

ae`sehpe kn hckuq 36 % lg vse`lvlqhqlkg mhp ceeg plduihqea c| qme dkaei k~es e}qsede

gksqm seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg' Lg qme dkgpkkg ceiq kn Vhjlpqhg) hg lg`sehpe kn hckuq 86 $ 06 %

mhp ceeg kcpes~ea' Qme ae`sehpe kn hckuq 86 $ 06 % mhp ceeg kcpes~ea lg ègqshi Vugbhc

seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg' NÔ@D$N3 -Nlo 30-`,,) k~eshii vseal`qp h ae`sehpe lg puddes

vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es Vhjlpqhg' Qme ae`sehpe lp dkse k~es aepesq hsehp kn Vhjlpqhg) wml`m lp

hskuga 06 %'

Nlouse 302 Pehpkghi % @mhgoe lg Vse`lvlqhqlkg nks puddes: -h, E@MHD5$Ni) -c,

E@MHD5$N3) -`, NÔ@D$N3 k~es Vhjlpqhg plduihqea c| Seo@D0'

3=


43/59

38'33'>'1'3 _lgqes -ABND,

Nlo' 31 pmkwp qme nuquse vskbe`qlkgp kn vse`lvlqhqlkg nks qme wlgqes -ABND, pehpkg'E@MHD$ Ni) e}èvq nks qme gksqmesg seolkg) plduihqep h ae`sehpe kn hckuq 5 $ 05 %'

K~es qme gksqmesg seolkg kn Vhjlpqhg hga k~es pkde vhsqp kn pkuqmesg Vhjlpqhg) qme

`mhgoe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg lp wlqmlg 5 $ 05 %' E@MHD5$N3 -Nlo 31-c,, vseal`qp h ae`sehpe

kn 5 $ 05 % lg qme wlgqes vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es Vhjlpqhg e}èvq nks qme e}qsede gksqm seolkg

kn Vhjlpqhg'

Lg `hpe kn NÔ@D$N3 -Nlo 31-`,,) qme vse`lvlqhqlkg `mhgoe vhqqesg lp alnnesegq nskd qme

E@MHD$N3 vseal`qlkgp' N^@KD$N3 vseal`qp h ae`sehpe kn vse`lvlqhqlkg lg qmeChik`mlpqhg vsk~lgè) wmesehp nks dkpq kn qme kqmes seolkgp lg Vhjlpqhg) qme dkaei

vseal`qp hg lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg' Qme dh}ldud lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg lp lg ègqshi

Vugbhc) wmese lq lp dkse qmhg 05 %' K~es qme gksqmesg seolkg) qme lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg

lp wlqmlg i6 $ 35 %'

Nlouse 312 Pehpkghi % @mhgoe lg Vse`lvlqhqlkg nks wlgqes: -h, E@MHD5$Ni) -c,

E@MHD5$N3) -`, NÔ@D$N3 k~es Vhjlpqhg plduihqea c| Seo@D0

3


44/59

30'

>'5 Hgguhi @|ìep k~es Vhjlpqhg

Nlo' 35 sevsepegqp qme hgguhi `|ìep kn qedveshquse nks qme E@MHD5 -NL hga N3, hga

NÔ@D$N3 akwgp`hiea wlqm Seo@D0' Lg Nlo' 35 -h,) h slpe kn hckuq 3 $ 0 @ nks qme

E@MHD$NL ahqhpeq hp `kdvhsea qk E@MHD$SN -wmese SN dehgp chpe veslka) 88$

2

06


45/59

>'> Puddhs| kn @mhgoep k~es Vhjlpqhg

Qhciep 0 . 1 sevsepegq qme puddhs| kn ìldhqe `mhgoep k~es Vhjlpqhg kg hgguhi hga

pehpkghi chplp nks E@MHD5 hga NÔ@D ahqhpeq akwgp`hiea wlqm Seo@D0'

Qhcie 0 pmkwp qme nuquse `mhgoep lg qedveshquse k~es Vhjlpqhg nks E@MHD5 -NL . N3,

hga NÔ@D$N3 kg hgguhi hga pehpkghi chplp' Lq mhp ceeg kcpes~ea qmhq qmese lp dkse slpelg qedveshquse lg puddes qmhg lg wlgqes' Qme `kdvhslpkg kn E@MHD5$N3 hga NÔ@D$

N3 pmkwp qmhq E@MHD5 vskbe`qp dkse whsdlgo qmhg NÔ@D'

Qhcie 1 pmkwp qme nuquse vesègqhoe `mhgoep lg vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es Vhjlpqhg nks E@MHD5

-NL . N3, hga NÔ@D$N3' Lg puddes) N3 vskbe`qlkgp ol~e h ae`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg kn

hckuq 80 % k~es Vhjlpqhg' Lg wlgqes pehpkg) NÔ@D$N3 vseal`qp hg lg`sehpe wmesehp

E@MHD$N3 vseal`qp h ae`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg' Kg hgguhi chplp) hg lg`sehpe lg

vse`lvlqhqlkg lp vseal`qea' Qme lg`sehpe lp mlomes lg E@MHD5) wml`m lp hckuq 15 %) hp

`kdvhsea qk NÔ@D'

Qhcie 02 Vskbe`qea `mhgoep kn qedveshquse @@, k~es Vhjlpqhg kg pehpkghi hga hgguhichplp

Qedveshquse `mhgoe -@, k~es Vhjlpqhg

Seo@D0$E@MHD5$Ni Seo@D0$E@MHD5$N3 Seo@D0$NÔ@D$N3

Hgguhi 3'66 1'=0 1'6=

Puddes 3'35 5'68 1'0'35 80'>0

?' Nuquse Vskbe`qlkgp nks @ildhql` Rkgep kn Vhjlpqhg

Nuquse vskbe`qlkgp kn qedveshquse hga vse`lvlqhqlkg hse hipk wksjea kuq kg hgguhi hga

pehpkghi chplp nks alnnesegq ìldhql` rkgep laegqlnlea k~es Vhjlpqhg' Qme vskbe`qea ~hiuep

hse qhcuihqea lg Qhciep 5 hga > nks qedveshquse hga vse`lvlqhqlkg sepve`ql~ei|' Qme

ugèsqhlgqlep hppk`lhqea wlqm qmepe vskbe`qea ~hiuep hse hipk ol~eg wlqm qme dehg ~hiuep'

08


46/59

H dhv pmkwlgo alnnesegq ìldhqe rkgep kn Vhjlpqhg lp pmkwg lg Nlo' 3?' Aeqhlip seihqea qk qmepe

alnnesegq ìldhql` rkgep hse h~hlihcie lg qme sepehs`m sevksq) O@LP@ SS 82 @ildhqe Vsknlie hga

Vhpq @ildhqe @mhgoep lg Vhjlpqhg'

Nlouse 3?2 @ildhql` rkgep kn Vhjlpqhg

Qhcie 5 pmkwp qmhq) lg `hpe kn E@MHDP$Ni) h pilomqi| mlomes slpe lg qedveshquse lp

kcpes~ea lg Osehqes Mldhih|hp hp `kdvhsea qk kqmes seolkgp' Nks N3 nuquse vskbe`qlkgp kn

E@MHD5 hga NÔ@D) pilomqi| mlomes qedveshquse lp kcpes~ea k~es Osehqes Mldhih|hp

hga ikwes Lgaup Vihlgp hp `kdvhsea qk kqmes seolkgp' Dksek~es) E@MHDP$N3 pmkwp

dkse whsdlgo hp `kdvhsea qk NÔ@D N3 vskbe`qlkgp'

Qhcie > pmkwp h ploglnl`hgq lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es Osehqes Mldhih|hp nks

E@MHDP -NL . N3, hga NÔ@D$N3' Nks N3 vskbe`qlkgp) lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es

ègqshi hga pkuqmesg Vugbhc mhp ceeg kcpes~ea' H ae`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg mhp ceeg

kcpes~ea k~es ikwes Lgaup Vihlgp) Chik`mlpqhg Vihqehu -wepq, hga lg `khpqhi hsehp'

03


47/59

31'Qhcie 52 Vskbe`qea `mhgoep kn qedveshquse -6@, kg hsduhi chplp k~es alnnesegq ìldhql`rkgep kn Vhjlpqhg

Qme vskbe`qea ~hiuep kn qedveshquse hga vse`lvlqhqlkg nks puddes -BBHP, hse qhcuihqea lg

Qhciep ? hga ='

E@MHD5$Ni vskbe`qp dkse whsdlgo lg Chik`mlpqhg Vihqehu -_epq, wmesehp E@MHD5$

N3 ol~ep osehqes slpe lg qedveshquse lg ikwes Lgaup Vihlgp' NÔ@D$N3 pmkwp mlomepq

qedveshquse slpe lg Chik`mlpqhg Vihqehu -Ehpq,' Qme hghi|plp kn qme pqhqlkg ahqh kn ihpq 56

|ehsp hipk ol~ep lg`sehplgo qsega lg Chik`mlpqhg Vihqehu hp pmkwg lg qme sepehs`m sevksq

SS$68 c| @ildhqe Pe`qlkg kn O@LP@' Lg `hpe kn vse`lvlqhqlkg) E@MHDP$N3 hga

NÔ@D$N3 pmkw h ploglnl`hgq ae`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es ikwes Lgaup Vihlgp hga

ègqshi . pkuqmesg Vugbhc'

00

Vskbe`qea `mhgoep kn vse`lvlqhqlkg -%, kg hgguhi chplp k~es alnnesegq ìldhql`

rkgep kn VhjlpqhgQhcie >2


48/59

35'3>'Qhcie ?2 Vskbe`qea mhgoep kn qedveshquse-@,nks puddes -BBHP, k~es alnnesegq

`ildhql` rkgep kn Vhjlpqhg

Qhcie =2 Vskbe`qea mhgoep kn vse`lvlqhqlkg -%, nks puddes -BBHP, k~es alnnesegq


$6'< $18'50 $8

LL2 _epqesg Mlomihgap 3'1? 1'=5 1'3


51/59

Qhcie 882 Vskbe`qea `mhgoep kn qedveshquse -@, kg hgguhi chplp k~es alnnesegq hosk`ildhql`

rkgep kn Vhjlpqhg

Hsla 3'05 1' 1'=0 1'66

Qhcie 802 Vskbe`qea `mhgoep kn qedveshquse @K@, nks wlgqes -ABVD, k~es alnnesegq

hosk$`ildhql` kn Vhjlpqhg

Hsla 3'3= 1'=? 1'6?Pedl$Hsla 3'81 1'?1 0'=?

Mudla 3'08 1'


52/59

Qhciep 81 qk 8>) sevsepegq qme vskbe`qea vse`lvlqhqlkg k~es alnnesegq hosl`uiqushi rkgep kn

Vhjlpqhg' E@MHD$NL pmkwp hg lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg kg hgguhi chplp lg mudla hga

puc$mudla seolkg wmlie h mlomes lg`sehpe kn hckuq =5 %lp kcpes~ea lg wlgqes lg hsla seolkg hp

`kdvhsea qk kqmes rkgep' Nks N3 vskbe`qlkgp kn E@MHD5 hga N^O@D) h ae`sehpe kn hckuq

86$8>% lp kcpes~ea lg hsla rkgep kg hgguhi chplp hga lg puddes pehpkg) wmesehp hg lg`sehpe k

hckuq 5?% mhp ceeg vskbe`qea nks wlgqes pehpkg'

Qhcie 812 Vskbe`qea `mhgoep kn vse`lvlqhqlkg -%, kg hgguhi chplp k~es alnnesegq hosk$


Hsla >'80 $80'?1 $86'0

Pedl$Hsla 1''31 >'01

Mudla '6Pedl$Hsla 88'61 5'?3 $6'?=

Mudla 38'>1 3?'5=


53/59

Qhcie 8>2 Vskbe`qea `mhgoep kn vse`lvlqhqlkg -%, nks wlgqes -ABND, k~es alnnesegqhosk$ìldhql` rkgep kn Vhjlpqhg

_lgqes -ABND,

Seolkgp Seo@D0 $ E@MHD5 Seo@D0NÔ@D

) N48 N3 N3 #/V-%, V-%, V-%,

Hsla =5'56 5>'=1 5>'= 05'?8 81'66

Vskbe`qea `mhgoep kn vse`lvlqhqlkg -%, nks wlgqes -ABND, k~es alnnesegqwhqes pmea rkgep kn Vhjlpqhg

Qhcie 332

86'1? 5' ?'81Uvves Lgaup Chplg

6'6>

81'0>

Bmeiud Sl~es @hq`mdegq >

Jhcui Sl~es @hq`mdegq 8>'66 ?'15

86' @kgìuplkgp

Nuquse vskbe`qlkgp mh~e ceeg ae~eikvea ugaes LV@@ PSEP$H3 pèghslkp nks 3656p -NL,

. 36=6p -N3, c| a|ghdl`hii| akwgp`hilgo qme ahqh kn qwk O@Dp -E@MHD5 .

NÔ@D, uplgo qme seolkghi ìldhqe dkae Seo@D0 nks Pkuqm Hplh nkùplgo qme hghi|plp

k~es Vhjlpqhg' E@MHD5 ahqhpeq whp h~hlihcie nks ckqm qme nuqusep -NL hga N3, wmesehp

NÔ@D ahqhpeq whp h~hlihcie kgi| nks N3'

Qme ahqhpeqp wese ~hilahqea cenkse qme `kgpqsu`qlkg kn nuquse pèghslkp' Qme ~hilahqlkgsepuiqp pmkwea qmhq qme akwgp`hiea O@D ahqhpeqp wese hcie qk `hvquse qme ìldhql`

nehqusep kn qme seolkg nhlsi| weii' Ckqm O@Dp `hvqusea qme pvhqlhi vhqqesgp kn qedveshquse

hga vse`lvlqhqlkg sehpkghci| weii nks puddes -BBHP, hp weii hp wlgqes -ABND, k~es qme

wmkie akdhlg' Qme nuquse vskbe`qlkgp nks Pkuqm Hplh seolkg wlqm a|ghdl`hii|

akwgp`hiea E@MHDP -NL . N3, hga NÔ@D$ N3 pmkwea whsdlgo k~es qme wmkie

seolkg' Dkse whsdlgo lp kcpes~ea k~es `khpqhi hsehp kn Vhjlpqhg) Hnomhglpqhg) k~es Mldhih|hg

seolkg hga ègqshi Lgalh' Qme `kdvhslpkg kn E@MHDP$N3 wlqm NÔ@D$N3

13


57/59

pmkwea qmhq E@MHD5$N3 vskbe`qea dkse whsdlgo k~es ègqshi Lgalh) gksqmesg hga pkuqmesg

vhsqp kn Vhjlpqhg hga Hnomhglpqhg'

K~es Vhjlpqhg) qme pvhqlhi vhqqesgp kn vse`lvlqhqlkg hp weii hp qedveshquse nks wlgqes -ABND,

hga puddes -BBHP, hse sehpkghci| okka) cuq qme dkaei k~esepqldhqea lg `hpe kn vse`lvlqhqlkg

hga pmkwea h `kia clhp kn hckuq 8'0 $ 0'3 @ lg `hpe kn qedveshquse' Lg puddes hga hq hgguhi

chplp) qme vse`lvlqhqlkg clhpep hse mlomes lg NÔ@D hp `kdvhsea qk E@MHD5) wmesehp

NÔ@D wlgqes vse`lvlqhqlkg clhpep hse iepp qmhg E@MHD5' Mkwe~es qme clhpep lg `hpe knE@MHD5 vse`lvlqhqlkg hse mlomes lg puddes hp `kdvhsea qk NÔ@D' Qme sepuiqp kn nuquse

vskbe`qlkgp k~es Vhjlpqhg pmkwea qmhq puddes lp ce`kdlgo whsdes hp `kdvhsea qk wlgqes lg

ckqm nuqusep -Ni hga N3,' Qmese lp dkse whsdlgo k~es Osehqes Mldhih|hp) egqshi hga pkuqmesg

vhsqp kn Vugbhc hga Ikwes Lgaup Vihlg hp `kdvhsea qk kqmes seolkgp kn Vhjlpqhg lg puddes hp

weii hp wlgqes hga nks ckqm E@MHD5 -Ni . N3, hga NÔ@D$N3'

Lg `hpe kn hosk ìldhql` rkgep) lq mhp ceeg kcpes~ea qmhq h ploglnl`hgq lg`sehpe lg vse`lvlqhqlkg

mhp ceeg vskbe`qea lg mudla hga puc$ mudla seolkg nks puddes hga hgguhi hga lg hsla seolkg

nks wlgqes) wml`m pmkwp qmhq lq wlii mh~e h vskdlgegq enne`q kg qme wmehq `skv kn qme seolkg' Lg

`hpe kn whqespmea rkgep) dkse whsdlgo lp vseal`qea c| qme dkaei lg Jhcui chplg kg hgguhi

chplp hga lg puddes pehpkg wmesehp dkse whsdlgo mhp ceeg vseal`qea lg ALC lg wlgqes

pehpkg' Lg hpe kn vse`lvlqhqlkg) ULC lp seèl~lgo dkse shlgnhii lg puddes pehpkg hga kg hgguhi

chplp hp `kdvhsea qk kqmes seolkgp'

K~eshii `kdvhslpkg pmkwea qmhq E@MHD5 lp dkse weq hga whsdes hp `kdvhsea qk NÔ@D

k~es Vhjlpqhg' E@MHD5 peedp qk ce k~es vseal`qlgo lg hpe kn qedveshquse hp kdvhsea qk qme

LV@@ vseal`qlkgp nks qme seolkg) wmesehp NÔ@D vseal`qlkg peedp qk ce lg h``ksahgè wlqm

qme nlgalgop kn LV@@' K~eshii) ckqm qme dkaeip wese hcie qk `hvquse qme pvhqlhi vhqqesgp hq qme

lgqeshgguhi hga pehpkghi p`hie sehpkghci| weii nks qme seolkg epve`lhii| k~es Vhjlpqhg'

88' H`jgkwieaoedegqp

_e hse qmhgjnui qk qme Ehsqm P|pqed Vm|pl`p -EPV, oskuv kn qme Hcaup Phihd

Lgqesghqlkghi @egqse nks Qmekseql`hi Vm|pl`p -L@QV,) Qslepqe Lqhi| nks vsk~lalgo qme O@Dp

ahqh hga qe`mgl`hi puvvksq

10


58/59

Seneseg`ep

@mslpqegpeg) K' C') @mslpqegpeg) B' M') Dh`megmhues) C' hga Ckqreq) D' 8


59/59

Oikchi @mhgoe Ldvh`q Pqualep @egqse

-O@LP@,

Oikchi `mhgoe p`leg`e lp celgo hooseppl~ei| vuspuea hskuga qme wksia' Qme Oikchi @mhgoe

Ldvh`q Pqualep @egqse whp `sehqea lg Dh| 3663 qk lglqlhqe qmlp duiqlalp`lvilghs| ennksq lg

Vhjlpqhg' Qme dhlg kcbe`ql~e kn qme @egqse lp qk `kdvsemega qme vmegkdegkg kn oikchi `mhgoe)p`legqlnl`hii| aeqesdlge lqp iljei| ldvh`qp kg ~hslkup pk`lk$e`kgkdl` pe`qksp lg Vhjlpqhg hga

ae~eikv pqshqeolep qk `kugqes qme ha~espe enne`qp) ln hg|' Hgkqmes nug`qlkg kn qme @egqse lp qk

epqhcilpm lqpein hp h ghqlkghi nk`hi vklgq nks vsk~lalgo `kmeplkg qk oikchi `mhgoe seihqea h`ql~lqlep

hq qme ghqlkghi ie~ei hga nks ilgjlgo lq wlqm lgqesghqlkghi oikchi sepehs`m' Hg ldvksqhgq nug`qlkg

kn qme @egqse lp qk meiv ae~eikv dhgvkwes qmhq lp `hvhcie kn pqua|lgo hga vhsql`lvhqlgo lg qme

lgqesghqlkghi ennksq qk pqua| qme oikchi `mhgoe vmegkdegkg' Qme @egqse hipk wksjp qk lg`sehpeqme hwhsegepp kn qme vucil`) qme p`legqlnl` `kdduglq| hga qme vkil`| vihggesp lg qme `kugqs| qk

oikchi `mhgoe'

Oikchi @mhgoe Ldvh`q Pqualep @egqse -O@LP@,Ghqlkghi @egqse nks Vm|pl`p -G@V, @kdvie}

Xuhla$l$Hrhd Ugl~esplq| @hdvupV'K' Ck} 0633) Lpihdhcha

Vhjlpqhg

Documents

Climate Change Projections Over South Asia Under SRES A2 Scenario Using Regional Climate Model RegCM3(GCISC-RR-08)