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1.
IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES:
FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL
PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE
Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy
George Washington University
17 November 2008
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
2.
3. STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS AFTERMATH
1. The prior equilibrium: stable but not durable
2. Disruption: Polity, Economy, Society, State .
3. Legacy: an anti-modern party-state
4. Bottom up responses:
Coping strategies; adaptation; opportunities
5. New equilibrium: A stable state is not a static state
6. Divergence between European studies and Post-Soviet studies
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
4. MAKING PROGRESS AND FALLING BEHIND
1949 1960 1970 1980 1989 Change
Female life expectancy (years)
Germany: East 69 72 72 75 76 7
Germany: West 67 72 73 76 79 12
Austria 67 72 73 76 79 12
Czechoslovakia 65 73 73 74 75 10
Hungary 63 70 72 73 74 11
Poland 62 70 73 75 75 13
Sources: UN, World Health, OECD health statistics; UN Demographic Yearbook, 1979, special historical supplement; UNICEF International Child Development Centre, Children at Risk in Central and Eastern Europe, 1997, p. 123.
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
5. MODERN AND ANTI-MODERN SOCIETIES COMPARED
Modern Anti-modern
Rule of law Yes, bureaucratic Arbitrary, political
Openness Transparent Opaque
Signals Prices, laws False accounts, bribes, personal contacts
Cause and effect Predictable Uncertain
Output Efficient Inefficient
6. CEE ASPIRATIONS: RETURN TO MITTELEUROPA
Czechoslovakia Hungary Poland Average
% % % %
Germany 31 38 37 35
Sweden 32 34 21 29
United States 14 10 30 18
Italy 9 9 0 6
France 5 2 7 5
Britain 3 3 3 3
Other 6 2 2 3
Soviet Union 0 1 0 0.3
Source: Freedom House, Democracy, Economic Reform and Western Assistance: Data Tables, 1991, p. 154.
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
7. RUSSIAN ASPIRATIONS
Q. We often hear the following words. What feelings do they evoke?
Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer, 1992. Those saying “difficult to answer” are not shown.
16%
21%
24%
25%
63%
73%
75%
78%
% Negative % Positive
Freedom 4%
One and indivisible Russia 5%
Christianity 3%
Glasnost (Openness) 16%
Capitalism 28%
Socialism 33%
Perestroika 45%(Restructuring)
Marxism- Leninism 37% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
8. OPPORTUNITY: FREEDOM
Source: Richard Rose, Wolfgang Zapf and Wolfgang Seifert, Germans in Comparative Perspective, 1993.
34%
13%
24%
97%
82%
97%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Federal Republic
Old regime
Federal Republic
Old regime
Federal Republic
Old regime
East German evaluation of policies of former regime, Federal Republic:
Social security
Freedom to say what you think
Freedom of religious worship
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
9. ECONOMIC SHOCK TO OFFICIAL ECONOMIES
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Source: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 2001: Energy in Transition, 2001, Table A.3.1, p. 59.
% 1990 GDP
Poland
SloveniaSlovakiaHungaryCzech R.
EstoniaRomaniaBulgariaLithuania
RussiaLatvia
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
10. ECONOMIC RECOVERY
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
1994 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 2007
Source: EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, 2007; 2006 figures are based on estimates, 2007 figures on forecasts.
% 1990 real GDP
Pol
Slve
Svk
Hun
Cze
Est
Rom
Bul
LithLat
Gross domestic product1990: 100
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
11. IMPROVEMENTS IN HEALTH
Male life expectancy in years
1990 Fall (year) Peak (year) 2005
New EU countries
Slovenia 69.4 0 +3.8 (2003) 73.2
Czech Republic 68.1 0 +4.0 (2001) 72.0
Poland 66.5 -0.4 (1991) +4.3 (2005) 70.8
Slovakia 66.6 0 +3.5 (2005) 70.1
Bulgaria 68.1 -1.0 (1995) +0.9 (2005) 69.0
Hungary 65.1 -0.6 (1993) +3.5 (2004) 68.6
Romania 66.6 -1.4 (1997) +2.2 (2005) 68.2
Estonia 64.6 -3.5 (1995) +2.7 (2005) 67.3
Latvia 64.2 -3.5 (1994) +2.9 (2004) 67.1
Lithuania 66.4 -3.8 (1994) +0.4 (2000) 66.4
Post-Soviet countries
Belarus 66.3 -4.1 (1999) -2.9 (2000) 62.9
Ukraine 66.0 -5.0 (1996) -3.0 (1998) 62.2
Russia 63.8 -6.2 (1994) -2.5 (1998) 58.9
Source: MONEE project, Innocenti Social Monitor (2007), Table 4.3. Latest figures for Latvia and Lithuania are from 2004.
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
12. NORMALIZATION IN RUSSIA
Q. Do you think Russian life today is that of a normal society?
2000a 2001 2003a 2004 2005 2007a 2008 Change
% % % % % % %
Definitely 2 9 15 10 10 19 32 +30
Fairly 11 13 25 18 26 27 32 +21
Normal 13 21 40 28 36 46 64 +51
Only a little 54 50 40 45 49 40 26 -28
Not at all 33 29 20 27 15 14 10 -23
Not normal 87 79 60 72 64 54 36 -51
Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer.
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
13. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNIONTransparency International Corruption Index
Denmark, Finland 9.4
Sweden 9.3Netherlands 9.0
Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4
Austria 8.1Germany 7.8
OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6Ireland 7.5France 7.3
Belgium 7.1
Spain 6.7Portugal 6.5
Italy 5.2
Greece 4.6
6.6 Slovenia6.5 Estonia
5.8 (Malta)5.3 Hungary, (Cyprus)
5.2 Czech Republic5.0 MEAN OF NEW EU4.9 Slovakia 4.8 Latvia, Lithuania
4.2 Poland4.1 Bulgaria3.7 Romania
Old EU members New EU members
1 Most corrupt
10 Highest integrity
Source: Transparency International, TI Corruption Perceptions Index 2007, www.transparency.org. Accessed 20 May 2008.
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1357
14. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES
Freedom House rating
Perception of Corruption Index
Sources: perception of corruption index: Transparency International, 2007; Freedom House rating: Freedom House, 2007.
SveEst
HunCze
New EU Post-Soviet
SvkLat, LitPol
BulRom
Arm
Aze, Kaz, Taj
Bel
GeoMol
RusUkr
UzbTur
Kyr
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08