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Thang 1- 2004

ISSN 0868-2984-

TRUNG TAM KHOA HOC xA H(n vA NIlAN vAN Qu6c GIA

vmN KINH TE THE GI(~JI - - ~ltt

Nt-af tI-4ampKinh teThe gioi

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Ph6 tbng bien t~pPGSTS DO DUC DNHPGSTS LVU NGtlC TRNH

Thlt kyo toa so~nTSTQ TH THANH ToAN

HQI DONG BIEN T~P

1 PGSTSKH vO D LUclC2 PGS TS DO DUC DINH3 PGS TS lE BegtliNH4 PGS TS lE VAN SANG5 PGS TS NGUYEN XUAN THANG6 TS TO THI THANH TOAN7 PGS TS LUUNGQC TRiNH

Trinh bay

Nguyen Ellie

Toa so~n176 Thai Ha Dijng Da Hii N(Te~ 85703648574311

85743108574313Fax 8574316E-mail tapchikttghnvnnvn

Philng philt hanh176 Thlli Hii Dong Da Hii NpTel 8574315

8574311 8326723

Giay phep xuat ban so 2411GPBVHTI ngay 8152001chOblin an tlr~ V~nKinh teTheurogolhi kh6 205 x 285 emIn ~l Xi nghi~p in 15In xong va cp tlAJ chiiu thang 112004

ISSN 0868 - 2984Glci bOn 15000 d

Si1 (93)IhltntJ- 1-2004

NRM THIi M1101 SRUg~lfL ehi Nl 1 Ihlt9- 1 kii

MUCLUCbull bull

Db Hoai Nam Trung tam Khoa hQc Xii hoi vi Nhan vanQuae gia 50 nam xay dlJ1gva phat trien-Kim NgQc Kinh te the giai 2003 Tiep t~ICxu huang phuch6iNguy~n Hong SOIl Nhfrng d(ie di~m ca ban eua tii chfnh -tien t~ the giai nam 2003---~Db Duc Djnh- Trlln Lan Huang Kinh te cac mrac dangpMt tri~n nam 2003

Dinh Quy D(l My Nhfrng dieu chlnh chu yeu trong ehienluqe toan ellu maio

Nguy~n Quang Thuan Lien minh chau Au va kha ~ang hqptac clla Vi~tNam

Nguy~n Thanh Duc cae phvong phap tv nhan hoa a DongDuc

Vii Chi LQc Nha nuac elln tang cuang hi) trq cac doanhnghi~p Vi~t Nam xuat khau sang thi truang chau Au

Trang

3

12

28

40

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Nt-af tI-4ampKinh teThe gioi

Tbng bien t~p

PGSTSKH VO DI LUclc

Ph6 tbng bien t~pPGSTS DO DUC DNHPGSTS LVU NGtlC TRNH

Thlt kyo toa so~nTSTQ TH THANH ToAN

HQI DONG BIEN T~P

1 PGSTSKH vO D LUclC2 PGS TS DO DUC DINH3 PGS TS lE BegtliNH4 PGS TS lE VAN SANG5 PGS TS NGUYEN XUAN THANG6 TS TO THI THANH TOAN7 PGS TS LUUNGQC TRiNH

Trinh bay

Nguyen Ellie

Toa so~n176 Thai Ha Dijng Da Hii N(Te~ 85703648574311

85743108574313Fax 8574316E-mail tapchikttghnvnnvn

Philng philt hanh176 Thlli Hii Dong Da Hii NpTel 8574315

8574311 8326723

Giay phep xuat ban so 2411GPBVHTI ngay 8152001chOblin an tlr~ V~nKinh teTheurogolhi kh6 205 x 285 emIn ~l Xi nghi~p in 15In xong va cp tlAJ chiiu thang 112004

ISSN 0868 - 2984Glci bOn 15000 d

Si1 (93)IhltntJ- 1-2004

NRM THIi M1101 SRUg~lfL ehi Nl 1 Ihlt9- 1 kii

MUCLUCbull bull

Db Hoai Nam Trung tam Khoa hQc Xii hoi vi Nhan vanQuae gia 50 nam xay dlJ1gva phat trien-Kim NgQc Kinh te the giai 2003 Tiep t~ICxu huang phuch6iNguy~n Hong SOIl Nhfrng d(ie di~m ca ban eua tii chfnh -tien t~ the giai nam 2003---~Db Duc Djnh- Trlln Lan Huang Kinh te cac mrac dangpMt tri~n nam 2003

Dinh Quy D(l My Nhfrng dieu chlnh chu yeu trong ehienluqe toan ellu maio

Nguy~n Quang Thuan Lien minh chau Au va kha ~ang hqptac clla Vi~tNam

Nguy~n Thanh Duc cae phvong phap tv nhan hoa a DongDuc

Vii Chi LQc Nha nuac elln tang cuang hi) trq cac doanhnghi~p Vi~t Nam xuat khau sang thi truang chau Au

Trang

3

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NHUNG f)AC f)IEM co BAN CUAbull ~- ~ -TAl CHINH- TIENTETHEGIOI NAM 2003bull

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NhiIng d~c di~m cd ban cua tai chin h

Thu nhrltkhac voi trong quy 12003 ngnkinh te the gioi blioc sang quy Il2003 voi

Softbank m9t t5 hqp internet cling dil tangtili 500 va Nikari Tsushin (cong ty di~nthoi di d9ng va internet) cling tang tili650(1)

Theo cac chuyen gia kinh te sliphl)ch5iClla cac thj trlidng chung khoan Chll chottrong nam 2003 dltqC quyet djnh bdi cacnhan to cd ban sau

Chi s6 chung khoan tren cac thj truong chu ch6t nam 2003(My chilu Au va Nhilt Blm)

Ngu6n The Economist 25112003 wwwfinanceyahooeomBloombergcom

nhung tri~~ v9ng tang trlidng sang Sllahdn ditcbi~t la Clla ngn kinh te My dflutlu tang trlidng Clla ngn kinh te the gioi(tang trlidng GDP clla My trong quyIl2003 dt 31 va sang quy III2003 dildt tili 72 Dily la muc tang GDP theoquy cao nhilt trong vang 20 nam nay trongkhi do nhung con sodlibao tlidng ung trliocdo chi la 15 va 35) can clla NMt Banngn kinh te v6n lieuromtl)Ctri tr~ trong nhungnam trlioc do dil tang trlidng 39 tinhtheo nam(2)VaGquy Il2003

Thu hai nhung thong tin vg hot d9ngkinh doanh co lili clla cac cong ty trong 6thang dlu nam 2003 cling la nhung nhilntotac d9ng tich clictill sl1phl1ch5i clla cacthj trlidng chung khoan Chll chot Theo soli~u thong ke quoc gia My lqi nhu-n dildliclcdigu chinh sau thue clla cac cong ty diltang 785 ty USD trong quy Il2003 so voi

Soli~u Bang 1 cho thily cac thj trlidngchung khoan Chllchot tren the gioi dil co sliphl)ch5i dang k~ so voi thdi di~m dlunam2003 Cl)th~ so voi ngay 212003 chi sochung khoan tren cac thi trlidng vao ngay4122003 dil tang tii 9 Mn 47 Ditcbi~tso voi muc thilp nhilt trong nam cac chi sonay dii tang tii 32 den 76 va day clingla con sochenh l~ch giua muc thilp nhilt vamuc cao nhilt trong nam Trong do ditcbi~tiln tliclngla muc tang gia c5 phieu clla caccong ty cong ngM cao iJ My chi soNASDAQ composite dil tang till 70 trongvang 12 thang (tinh Mn thang 102003)NASDAQ 100 tang 73 iJ chilu Au c5phieu Clla cong ty Erricsson dil tang toi250 so voi muc thilp nhilt clla no c5 phieuvien thOng va cong ngh~ trong chi soDowJones Euro Stoxx cling dii tang tlidng Ung37 va 54 iJ Nhitt Ban c5 phieu clla

Chi s6Nilm2003 2112003

4122003 Muc cao nhilt Muc thilp nhilt

DJIA 993082 993082 75241 860752

SampP5oo 106972 107012 8007 90903

Nasdaq comp 196880 198982 12715 133698

Nikkey 225 1037151 1116171 76079 871333

FTSE 100 437820 441000 32870 40095

DAX 387478 387566 22030 310504

Being 1

cAu va nhung tac d9ng tieu clic clla dinhenh viem dlidng hOhilp cilp (SARS) iJchiluA) cac thj trlidng chUng khoan Chll chot(My NMt Bimva chilu Au) dil co Mu hi~uphl1ch5i voi sli gia tang lien tl1Ctrong 9thang cuoi nam 2003 (voi nhung dao d9ngnhi) khong dang k~ va bilt chilp nhUng CU9c

he boi tai chinh xay tren thj trlidng chungkhoan My) (xem D5 thj 1)

Nguyen Hong 5dn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

III

II

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 -------------- bull

NhiIng d~c di~m cd ban cua tai chin h

Thu nhrltkhac voi trong quy 12003 ngnkinh te the gioi blioc sang quy Il2003 voi

Softbank m9t t5 hqp internet cling dil tangtili 500 va Nikari Tsushin (cong ty di~nthoi di d9ng va internet) cling tang tili650(1)

Theo cac chuyen gia kinh te sliphl)ch5iClla cac thj trlidng chung khoan Chll chottrong nam 2003 dltqC quyet djnh bdi cacnhan to cd ban sau

Chi s6 chung khoan tren cac thj truong chu ch6t nam 2003(My chilu Au va Nhilt Blm)

Ngu6n The Economist 25112003 wwwfinanceyahooeomBloombergcom

nhung tri~~ v9ng tang trlidng sang Sllahdn ditcbi~t la Clla ngn kinh te My dflutlu tang trlidng Clla ngn kinh te the gioi(tang trlidng GDP clla My trong quyIl2003 dt 31 va sang quy III2003 dildt tili 72 Dily la muc tang GDP theoquy cao nhilt trong vang 20 nam nay trongkhi do nhung con sodlibao tlidng ung trliocdo chi la 15 va 35) can clla NMt Banngn kinh te v6n lieuromtl)Ctri tr~ trong nhungnam trlioc do dil tang trlidng 39 tinhtheo nam(2)VaGquy Il2003

Thu hai nhung thong tin vg hot d9ngkinh doanh co lili clla cac cong ty trong 6thang dlu nam 2003 cling la nhung nhilntotac d9ng tich clictill sl1phl1ch5i clla cacthj trlidng chung khoan Chll chot Theo soli~u thong ke quoc gia My lqi nhu-n dildliclcdigu chinh sau thue clla cac cong ty diltang 785 ty USD trong quy Il2003 so voi

Soli~u Bang 1 cho thily cac thj trlidngchung khoan Chllchot tren the gioi dil co sliphl)ch5i dang k~ so voi thdi di~m dlunam2003 Cl)th~ so voi ngay 212003 chi sochung khoan tren cac thi trlidng vao ngay4122003 dil tang tii 9 Mn 47 Ditcbi~tso voi muc thilp nhilt trong nam cac chi sonay dii tang tii 32 den 76 va day clingla con sochenh l~ch giua muc thilp nhilt vamuc cao nhilt trong nam Trong do ditcbi~tiln tliclngla muc tang gia c5 phieu clla caccong ty cong ngM cao iJ My chi soNASDAQ composite dil tang till 70 trongvang 12 thang (tinh Mn thang 102003)NASDAQ 100 tang 73 iJ chilu Au c5phieu Clla cong ty Erricsson dil tang toi250 so voi muc thilp nhilt clla no c5 phieuvien thOng va cong ngh~ trong chi soDowJones Euro Stoxx cling dii tang tlidng Ung37 va 54 iJ Nhitt Ban c5 phieu clla

Chi s6Nilm2003 2112003

4122003 Muc cao nhilt Muc thilp nhilt

DJIA 993082 993082 75241 860752

SampP5oo 106972 107012 8007 90903

Nasdaq comp 196880 198982 12715 133698

Nikkey 225 1037151 1116171 76079 871333

FTSE 100 437820 441000 32870 40095

DAX 387478 387566 22030 310504

Being 1

cAu va nhung tac d9ng tieu clic clla dinhenh viem dlidng hOhilp cilp (SARS) iJchiluA) cac thj trlidng chUng khoan Chll chot(My NMt Bimva chilu Au) dil co Mu hi~uphl1ch5i voi sli gia tang lien tl1Ctrong 9thang cuoi nam 2003 (voi nhung dao d9ngnhi) khong dang k~ va bilt chilp nhUng CU9c

he boi tai chinh xay tren thj trlidng chungkhoan My) (xem D5 thj 1)

Nguyen Hong 5dn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

III

II

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 -------------- bull

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Thu ba My va Lien minh chau Au thljChi~n chinh sach tai chinh mb r9ng vai vi~cciltgiam thue thu nh~p tai chinh va c6 tilctri gia 350 ty USD b My va ke hotchciitgiam thue 155 ty Euro cho tai nam 2005clla Duc Theo cac chuyen gia kinh te kehotchciltgiam thuetrliac miit se mang ltigltn 23 ty USD v6n dltu tli cho nampnkinh tenhUng nglidi hlidng llidng se thu dlicC120ty USD va cac cong ty tiet ki~m se thu dlicC50 ty USD(51

Thu tit My Lien minh chau Au va m9tlottcac nliac khac tiep t~c thljc hi~n chinhsach tiampn t~ noi lOng vai vi~c giam liii suatChll dtoxu6ng tai muc thap ky I~c trongvong hdn 40 nam qua (se dlicCtrinh bay kyhdn d phltn sau)

Ngoai ra vi~c chien tranh Iriic nhanhchOngket thuc cling co nhung tac d9ng tichcljc tOi slj ph~c h6i clla cac thi trlidngchUng khoan Chllch6t trong nam 2003

Milcdli cac thi trlidng chung khoan Chllch6t dii co slj ph~c hai trong nam 2003nhling dic nha kinh te v~n khOng th6ngnhat dlicCvOi nhau vamptri~n vQng clla cacthi trlidng nay trong tlidng lai Quan di~mthu nhat cho rampng cac thi trlidng chungkhoan chu ch6t se tiep t~c ph~c hai bbi viMy dang co tri~n vQng tang trlidng t6t nhd

Nguyen Hong 5dn-Phtm Anh Tuan

VaGcac chinh sach kinh teva tai chinh phlihcpda va dang dlicCthl1Chi~n TUdng tljnhli vaY tri~n vQng tang tnidng clla Nh~tBan cling kha sang sua do diampuhanh congty dlicCcai thi~n (duai tac dQngcua vi~c ciltgiam chi phi va nhung cai t6 khac) cacngan hang da co nhung buac cai cach quantrQng trong vi~c giam nckho doi va biit diiuchuiln bi cho vay ciu nQi dja da co xuhuang tangG) Tuy v~y quan di~m thu hailtichi ra rampng tang trlidng eua nen kinh teMy va Nh~t Ban hi~n dang dung truac ratnhieu nguy cd tiem iln Dili vai My do latham h~t tai khoan vang lai da d~t tai muc5 GDP (mai nam tang 1) tham h~tngan sach dlj bao se d~t tai 6 nam 2004nccua khu vl1ctu nhan hi~n dii len tai muc180 GDP va dang tang do liii suat thlipdilcbi~t la liii suat cho vay mua bat dQngsan nhung tac dQngchua th~ thay het ducccua slj n6 va bong bOng chung khoan congngh~ cao2 nam truac do Dili vai Nh~t Bando la t6ng sil ncchinh phu chiem tai 150GDP va dang tiep t~c tang nguy cd giamphat v~n dang tiep t~c rinh r~p h~ thilngngan hang v~n nampmtrong tinh trtng tri tr~vai muc nckho doi caom

Nhu v~y khO co th~ dl1doan mQt cachchinh xac ve tri~n vQng ph~c h6i tiep theocua cac thi trudng chung khoan chu ch6tnhung co th~ kh~ng dinh mQt cach chiicchiin la tri~n vQng nay phltn nhieu ph~thuQc VaGtri~n vQngtang trlidng cua 3 diiutiiu kinh te the giai My cMu Au va Nh~tBan Den llictminh tri~n vQngtang trudngdo ltiph~ thuQc nIt nhieu VaGcac chinhsach kinh te vi rna va cai cach cd diu nenkinh te dang dliccthl1Chi~n trong nhungnen kinh te nay cling nhu sl1phili hcpgiiiachling

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-------------- Nhiing van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004

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thlic nhUng dao ding cua dbng Dola Myphiin nhieu phlf thuic vao tinh hinh chiensJia Iric va tri~n vqng tang truang cua Mynhung sau khi chien tranh Iritc dultJctuyenbel ket thlic cac thi trudng dii chuy~n sJit)ptrung chli Y tit muc tang trudng sangmuc tham hlft tai khoan viing lai clla MyMuc tham hlft nay dii tiep tlfc gia tang vachiem tOi 51 GDP trong nam 2003 dlilttOi muc baa ding do voi nhung nguy cdgiam gia dit bien deli voi USD trong khidong veln nuoc ngoai d6 vao My giam (di)cbiet la tit cMu Au)

Thlt hai mi)cdii trong nam 2003 d Myl~n khu vJicdang Euro deu giam liii suatnhung liii suat d My v~n thap hdn so voi dchau Au (Liii suat Libor 6 thang clla USDla 13 trong khi clla Euro la 22 va YenNMt Ban la 01) phan anh muc dichi)tche hdn clla chinh sach tien W d khu vJicdbng Euro

Thlt ba nhung bat 6n dia - chinh trikhac nhu nguy cd sa liiy trong cuic chientranh do My dm diiu d Iric sJiIan ringclla chu nghla khung belbat 6n dinh chinhtri d Trung Dong cling co nhung tac ding

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Xet tren giac di ty gia heli doai songphudng vao ngay 4122003 so voi ngay2112003 trong tudng quan voi Yen Nh)tBan Dola My dii giam tit muc 11986YenlUSD xuelng con 10818 YeniUSD(tudng dudng voi 974) So voi Euro dangtien nay cling dii giam tit muc 10363USDEuro xuelng Mn 12078 USDEuro(tudng dudng voi 142)

Trang bili canh kinh te My phlfC haich)mchlilP voi that nghi~p cao va nhieunguy cd giam phat (GDP tang 18 tudngdudng voi nam 2002 llilmphat 21 tiing05 di~m so voi 2002 that nghi~p 6tang 02 di~m so voi 2002)(8)sJigiam giacua Dola My dultJcquyet dinh bai nhungnhan telCdban sau

Thlt nhfit truoc khi chien tranh Iric ket

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voi cac dang tien chu chelt khac di)cbi~t laso voi Euro va Yen Nh)t Ban (xem da thi

2)

Nguyim Hong 5dn-Phllm Anh Tuan

I

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NguIJnThomson Datastream

Nhiing van de KINH TETHE GlOI 561(93) 2004 -------------- II

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Danh gia nhung tac d9ng clla vi~c DolaMy giam gia tOi kinh te cac nttoc congnghi~p phat tri~n cac chuyen gia kinh t~deu cho dng nhiIng tac d9ng trJc tiep dilivoi I~m phat Ia nho cu 1 tang (giam) clladang tien chi khien cho muc gia tieu dunggiam (tang) them 002003 dili voi Mychau Au va Nhi[ttBan(O)

The nhung tac d9ng gian tiep tOimuc giathOng qua xuat nhi[tp khfiu va qua do MnIlt1inhui[tn clla cac dIng ty I~i dult1cdanh giaIa kha m~nh dijcbi~t dili voi chau Au Doctinh cu 10 tang (giam) gia tri clla Euro sovoi USD se d[n Mn vi~c giam (tang) 3 llt1inhui[tn clla cac cong ty chau Au(IO)va lamgiam 1 tang trudng clla khu VJc nayTrong do nhung tac d9ng nay khac bi~t dilivoi cac nganh nhung nganh chiu tac d9ngm~nh nhat Ia nganh cd khi va san xuat MoTuy vi[tynhung tac d9ng trJc tiep dili voikhu VJcEuro se dult1cbu tru m9t phln bdi sJdt giam Iai suat d chau Au

Dili voi Nhi[tt Ban trong khi clu n9i diatri tr~ tang trudng clla nen kinh te phlthuoc nhieu vao xuat khfiu ma chll yeu lahang di~n ttt va 0 to vi~cdang Yen tang giaso voi Dola My se co nhung tac d9ng tieucJc tOi nen kinh te nen Ngan hang trungudng Nhi[tt Ban da can thi~p m~nh vao thitrudng d~ giam bOt muc d9 tang gia clladang Yen trong 9 thang dlu nam 2003 siltien can thi~p vao thi trudng ngo~i hili cllaNhi[tt Ban len tOi 122 ty USD vult1tmuc kyllc 6915 ty USD trong nam 1999(11)Tuyvi[tyvi~c can thi~p vao thi trudng ngo~i hilico th~ giup do dult1ccac nganh xuat khfiunhung l~i co tac d9ng tieu cJctOicac nganhkhac Hi~n t~i voi lai suat zero Nhi[tt Bandang bdm tien vao nen kinh te bilng nhungbi~n phap phi truyen thilng nhu md r9ngtai khoan hi~n hanh clla cac ngan hang dngan hang trung udng va mua trill phieu

Nguylln Hong 5cln-Ph~m Anh Twin

chinh phll nhung tac d9ng kich thich nenkinh te tang trudng con rat hn che Nhieunha kinh te cho rilng Nhi[tt Ban nen apdlng chinh sach hen t~ mlc tieu Imphiit d~ dieu tiet nen kinh teo

Nhu vi[tysJ giam gia clla USD dult1ccoila phu hlt1pvOicac dieu ki~n kinh te cd banclla nen kinh te the gioi trong trung hn(xet ve dai hn USD van hep tlc caogia(12raquoDay Ia sJ giam gia co triit tl1vachap nhi[tn dult1cnhilm gium sl1mat canbilng dili ngoi clla My va khOng gay nentinh trng d9t bien SJ gium gia clla DolaMy se giup chuy~n d(ng IJc tang trudngclla My tU ciiu n9i dia sang xuat khfiu chophep ngltdi tieu dung tang tiet ki~m vagiam tham hlt tai khoan viing lai ChauAu va Nhi[tt Ban se bi anh hUdng ve xuatkhfiu nhung dieu do se dult1cbli tru m9tphln bdi vi~c noi long tien t~ Chinh vi vi)yrna cac nuoc G7 dii keu g9i cac nuoc apdlng che d( ty gia hili doni Iinh ho~t hdnsau CU9Ch9P vao thang 92003 (Idi keu g9inay khien nhieu nha binh IU(1llcho rilngMy dii tU bo chinh sach dang Dola mnh vagay suc ep dili voi Trung Quilc va Nhi)t Bantrong vi~c nang gia dang hen n9i dia cllah9)

Xet ve dai hn sJ gium gin tiep theo cllaDola My la dieu khO tranh khoi Tinh Mn26112003 dang tien nay moi gium 1438so voi ti[tp hlt1pcac dang tien clla nhungnuoc giau trong khi tai khoan vang Iai dJHnh se con tham hlt 4 GDP trong num2004 Nam 1985 dang tien nay da giam toi40 trong khi muc tham hlt tai khoanvang Iai chi Ia 3 GDP(jl) Muc d( bunchat va thdi gian giam gia tiep theo cllaUSD la kh6 dJ doan va lich stt dii chi rarilng thi[tmchi voi nhung dieu chinh co tri[tttJ clla USD cung van kern theo s1j tangtnJdng chi[tmIi clla nen kinh te My (thi[tmchi clla cii kinh te the gioi) Nhfrng thay d6i

1

11-------------- Nhiing van de KINH TE THE GIOI 501(93) 2004

lt- ltIt u

~- ~

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Nhfmg van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------

Nguy~n Hong Sc1nPh~mAnh Tuan

dQt bien hay vuett qua dieh (overshooting)viin tiep tle la nguy Cd lOn d~e bi~t la khisl1giam gia ella USD khOng di kern voi sl1tang gia tuoog ling ella cae d6ng tien khaenhilt la dOivm nhung nuoe co ehe dQty giae6 dinh ho~e co sl1milt can biing d6i ngoiJOnva h~ th6ng tai ehinh - ngan hang yeukern

III cAc DONG TII~N cHAu A THAP GIA

NgI1~e Iivoi theli ky tnioe khi xay rakhling hoang tai ehinh - tien t~ ehau A1997-1998 nam 2003 du~e eoi la la nam macae d6ng tien ehau A thilp gia so voi caed6ng tien mnh khae Sl1thilp gia ella caed6ng tien nay th~ hi~n a ehb trong khi DolaMy milt gia danh nghia toi 142 so voiEuro va 974 so voi Yen Nh1ltBan thi caed6ng tien ehau A ho~e giu nguyen gia tridanh nghia do nhUng d6ng tien nay du~e e6dinh so voi Dola My (Nhiln dan t~ TrungQu6e Dola H6ng Kong Ringgit Malaixia)hoii-etang gia khong dang k~ (tit 17 deuron8 d6i voi Dola Xingapo Dola Dai LoanRupiah Indonexia va Baht Thai Lan) tMmchi co d6ng tien can giam gia (PesoPhilippin) nhel sl1can thi~p ella cae nganhang trung udng vao thi tnielng ngoih6i

Theo Ngiin hang Thuy Sy UBS trong s6cae d6ng tien ehau A thilp gia nhat la d6ngNhan dan t~ (20 theo My la 40) tieptheo sau la Yen Nhat Ban Dola Dai LoanDola Xingapo va it thilp gia hoo ca laRinggit Malaixia Dola H6ng Kong va WonHan Qu6c Cling theo UBS sl1thap gia ellaella cae d6ng tien nay can th~ hi~n a sli giatang ella dl1tru ngoi t~ cling nfu a thii-ngdu can can thanh toan cd ban (tai khoanvang lai + v6n dai hn rang) Ca hai tieuchi nay deu rilt ro net a ehau A d~e bi~t xettren khia enh dl1 tru ngoi t~ So voithling 12 nam 2002 vao thang 7 va 82003dl1tm ngoit~ ella cae nen kinh te ehilu A

Nhiing dii-edi~m co blm eua tiii ehinh

nhu Nh1lt Ban Trung Quoe H6ng KongXingapo Indonexia Malaixia Thai LanHan Qu6e va Philippin da tang 178779 tyUSD tit mue 1167033 ty USD len deuron1345812 ty USD(14)

Cae nuac ehau A khOng mu6n d~ d6ngtien nuoe minh len gia mnh vi s~ anhhuang tai xuilt khftu va eong an vi~e lam(cae nuoe nay dinh gia hang hoa ella h9biing USD ngay ea trong thudng mi voinhau 80 hang hoa ella Han Qu6e ehiinghn du~e dinh gia biing USD(I5)) cling nhugiam ph at (dOi voi cae ntioe co thi trtielngmoi n6i dQco gian ella gia dOi voi ty gia larat lOn tai 41 nhu a Indonexia ehiinghn(16))Them vao do vi~e co du~e mQtlu~ng dl1tm ngoi t~ Ion se gilip eho caenuoe co kha nang bao v~ gia tri d6ng tienella minh mQt khi xay ra cae eli soc tieuelie

Tuy nhien sl1thap gia ella cae d6ng tienehau A neu dti~e duy tri qua lau se Iiconhung tae dQng tieu el1ekhong chi tai nenkinh te ella cae ntioe do ma ngay ea toi sl16n dinh ella nen kinh te toan diu

TMt nhat d6ng tien n(ii dia tMp giad6ng nghia voi sl1gia tang dl1tru ngoi t~tang va sl1banh truong tin dlng voi h1luqua la bong bong tai san dii-ebi~t la biltdQng san se xuilt hi~n voi nguy cd quanong ella nen kinh teoNgoai ra sl1gia tangella dl1tru ngoi~ mQt mii-t lam tang khanang bao v~ ty gia ella cae nuoe mii-t khaeIi to ra nhung chi phi va rlli ro nhiltdinh liii suat ella trai phieu kho bfe Mythap hdn I~i tue dua Ii tit cae khoan dau tukhae sli thap gia ella d6ng tien se khuyenkhich xuat khftu nhung d6ng thelicling hnehe nh1lp khftu cling nhu hn ehe vi~eehiiy~n sang nhung nganh slt dlng laodQng co trinh dQ eao (dieu quan tr9ng doivoi tang trudng trong dai hltm) lt

I11

irni

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Nhilng d~e di~m cd ban eua tai chin h

Thu hai vi~e die d6ng tien ehau A thapgia dang la vl[lt can trong vi~e xoa bo sljmat can biing cd ban ella nen kinh te toandou ehau A chiem tOi 12 tham h~t can cantai khoan viing lai ella My Trong do thamhut ella My d6i voi Trung Qu6e la 103 tyUSD(17)nam 2002 va khoang 130-150 tyUSD nam 2003 Sljthap gia ella cae d6ngtien ehau A se khien eho Euro phill tanggia mtnh hdn mue don thiet va dieu nay setto nen nguy cd eao gia ella d6ng tien voinhunghl[lu qua tieu eljetOi nen kinh tekhong chi trong khu vljed6ng Euro

Thu ba sljthap gia ella d6ng tien con coth~ dfin den sljbao hi ella cae mtoe khaeNhung d(mg thai bao hQ ella My d6i voihang hoa Trung Qu6e trong nhung thangeu6i nam2003 la nhung biing chung ro neteho thily dieu do My luon eho riing Nhanbull diin t~ dang dultJcdinh gia qua thilp va dieudo dang khien eho nganh eong nghi~p ellaMy bi anh huang voi hl[lu qua la thatnghi~p gia tang mtnh (Trung Qu6e ltiehoriing chua co chung eu xae thljed~ chungminh riing Nhan dan t~ thilp gia va Mydang mu6n tim kiem nguyen nhan benngoai eho nhung viln de trong nuoe)

Chinh vi nhung ly do tren rna tuyen b6ella cae nuoe G7 sau eUQeh9P vao thang92000 dii keu g9i cae nuoe dijebi~t la caenuoe ehau A ap d~ng ehe dQty gia h6i doailinh hott hdn (nhieu nha binh lul[ln ehoriing Idi keu g9i nay ehll yeu nhiim vaoTrung Qu6e va Nhijt Ban) Xet tren khiaetnh ly thuyet vi~e ap d~ng ehe dQty giah6i doai linh hott hdn se khien eho caemtoe ehau A giam dultenhieu rlli ro trongtUdng lai tang trudng se it dljahdn vao ehuky kinh te toan dou giam dultechi phitrong vi~e nampm giu dljtril ngoti t~ tangeudng cd hQi chi tieu eho nhung ngudi eutru trong Mu ki~n d6ng tien thilp gia va

Nguyen Hong San-Phlm Anh Tuan

giup khoi ph~e ltisljmat can biing ella nenkinh te toan eftu

Tuy nhien xet tren khia etnh thljetevi~e tien hanh ap dmg ehe dQ ty gia h6idoai linh hott hdn kho co th~ dultetienhanh theo li~u phap s6e (cae quan ehueQuy Tien t~ Qu6e te cling d6ng y voi quandi~m nay) Trong trudng hltpTrung Qu6eehfmg htnvoi mQth~ thong ngan hang yeukem vi~e than6i d6ng Nhan dan t~ sekhien eho gia tri ella d6ng tien nay bat 6ndinh voi nhilng tae dQng tieu eljekh6ng chid6i voi nen kinh te ella nuoe nay Hdn thenua ehinh vi~e cae nuoe ehau A can thi~pvao thi trudng ngolttihoi sau do dung dljtrungotit~ mua trai phieu ehinh phll My (160ty USD trong nita dftu nam 2003 ehll yeula Trung Qu6e va Nhijt Ban) ltidang giupeho nuoe nay dieu ehinh sljmat can biingd6i ngotitrong ngampn htn cling nhu duy tridultellttrnphat thap kieh thich dulteeftu nQidia va lam soi dQng thi trudng bat dQngsan

Tinh nhtycam va phue tlttPella ty gia diikhien eho mQt so nuoe nhu Trung Quoeehpoundng htn thljehi~n rnQtloat cae giai phapnhiim giam bot sue ep tang gia d6i voi d6ngtien ella minh nhu eho phep cae eong ty giultinhieu ngolttit~ hdn (hi~n tltticae e6ng tyco ngu6n thu ngoltti t~ phai ban toan bQ songoti t~ thu dulteeho ngan hang trungudng) noi long dieu ki~n mua ngolttit~ ehophep cae eong ty rnua trai phieu ngoti t~noi long quy dinh dftu tu ra mtoe ngoaigiam bOt cae bi~n phap khuyen khieh xuatkhflu htn ehe ty 1$ v6n eua cae ngEmhangnuoe ngoai dftu tu vao thi trudng chungkhoan Ngoai ra Trung Qu6e cling dangtinh den vi~e noi long bien dQdao dQngellaty gift

Nhu vijy vl~e ph~ thuQe qua rnue vaoDola My dii khien eho cae nuoe ehau-A riltde bi t6n thudng khOng chi khi d6ng tien

11-------------- NhiJng van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004

Nguy~n Hong 5e1n-Ph~mAnh Tuan Nhling d~e di~m eelban eila tai ehinh

Nga ) xung dqt Trung Dong tra nen kh5cli~t hdn dich b~nh SARS a chau A Xettren khfa cnh kinh te do Ill sJ giam gillcua Dola My lai suat the gioi thap a mucky Ivc cling voi nhung mat can biing co ban(tham hvt tai khoan vang lai IOn a Mynguy cd giam phat nq chfnh phu cua dicnuac d muc cao tham hVt ngan sach giatang ) va sv phvc h6i cham chp cua nilnkinh te toan cllu

Thu hai trong khi diu vil yang tangmnh thi ngu6n cung l(1i giam slit do sanluqng yang khai thac giam v5n Illket quacua sJ giam gill yang m(1nh trong nhungnam tr1ioc doll9 Them vao do ngan hangtrung uong cua nhiilu nUOc tren the gioidac bi~t la ngan himg trung liong chau Aucung da giam so luqng yang dJ tru ban ratren thi trudnglO)

MaC dli cllu vil vang cho san xufit congnghi~p viin chiem ty tr9ng IOnhon ca trongellu vil yang (912 trong thdi ky 19901999) nhung k~ tit khi bi phi tiiln t~ hallvao nam 1971 cling voi sJ svp d6 cua h~th5ng Bretton Woods vang v~n luon duqccoi Ill phuong ti~n tich tru gill tri trongnhung diilu ki~n bfit 6n dinh (chien tranhlm phat phi ma khung hoang kinh te )vasJ bien ding cua gii yang chi co nhunganh hlidng khOng dang k~ toi tinh hinh taichfnh - tiiln t~ tren the gioi

Trong nhung nam glln day gia yangphlln nhiilu phv thuqc vao cllu vil no cungvil yang chi dong vai tra thV ding Bdi vingoai ngu6n cung do khai thac yang tit ma(chiem ty tr9ng Ion nhat) vimg duqc chietxufit tit cac kim loi khic yang che tac l(1itit yang vvn yang tu nhan tich tru tittruoc thi yang dJ tru chfnh thuc cua cacngan hang trung uong cac nuoc tren thegioi hi~n rat Ion (320923 tan trong do Mynlim giu 81354 tan hay 2535 khu vJcd6ng EurC nlim giu 123057 tfin hay

Nhiing vande KINH TE THE GICli 501(93) 2004 --------------- ~

Trang nam 2003 ngtiqc livoi dV doancua tfit ca cac nha kinh te gia yang da biendingvoi xu huang chung Illtang gillmnhva nhiilu Illn dt tOi nhung muc gillky Ivctrong yang 10 nam trd Ii day Neu nhu vaodllu nam 2003 gill yang tren thi trudngLondon va NewYork moi chi d muc khoang340 USDOunce thi vao nhung thang cu5inam gillyang da nhiilu Illn vuqt qua muc400 USDOunce Tinh trung binh nam2003 yang da tang gilltOi 15 so voi nam2002 vuqt qua muc tang cua nhiilu mathang chien lu~c khac nhu dllu tho ching

hnThea cac chuyen gia kinh te co mqt lot

cac nguyen nhan khien yang tang gillmnh trong nam 2003

Thu nhat cllu vil yang tang mnh (ca titphia tu nhan liin nha nuocllS) do tac dingcua nhung bfit 6n chinh tri va kinh te dnhiilu ndi tren the gioi Xet tren khia qnhchfnh tri do Illchien tranh Irlic va nguy cosa Illy cua My sJ Ian rqng cua chu nghiakhung b5 (a 1m Di Th6 Nhi Ky Lien Bang

IV GIA VANG TANG M~NH

nay tang gill mnh ma ngay ca khi noxu5ng gill mnh so voi cac d6ng tiiln chuch5t khac Do do sau khung hoang taichfnh - tiiln t~ 19971998 cac mioc chfm Ada rfit tfch cJc trong vi~c tim kiem nhungbi~n phap hqp tac tai chfnh tiiln t~ khuvfc nhiim giam thi~u sJ phv thuic quamuc vao Dola My nhu thanh l-pquy traiphieu chau A ky ket cac hi~pdinh hoan d6itiiln t~ song phudng va da phudng tren cosd Sang kien Chiilng Mai y tUdng thanhI-pkhu vJc tiiln t~ Dong A MaCdli nhungbi~n phap hqp tac nay chua dua li nhungket qua thJc sJnhu mong mu5n nhung dayIllnhung huong di dung nhiim to ra mitmoi trudng tai chfnh - tiiln W 6n dinh trongkh)vJcva tren the gioi

I

I

Nhiin9 d~c di~m Cd ban cua tai chinh

3834) Doc tinh neu so htgng vfmg naydugc bim di thi gia yang chi con 70USDOunce Tuy v(iy neu nhin Ii lich sltclla gia yang thi c6 th~ thfly gia yang hi~nti con dang thflp hon rflt nhieu so voi giayang trong nhung nam 1980 va 1990 (mi)cdil b5i canh kinh tethe gioi hi~n nay khacxa voi thdi diEimd6) D5ng thdi hi~n ti duve yang v1n con rflt IOn a nhieu nuoc nhuAn DtDong A va Trung Dong yang khongchi la d6 trang suc phuong ti~n tich tru giatri rna can la thuoc do gia tri va phuongti~n thanh toano Do v(iyrna cac dJ bao vedi~n bienclla gia yang trong tuong lai g1lnla rflt khac nhau Theo dt bao clla nhieuchuyen gia va Hti d5ng Vang the gioi(WGC) trong nam 2004 gia yang se tieptlC tang tren muc 400 USD va dao dtngtrong khoang 400-500 USDOunce Trongkhi d6 nhieu dJ bao khac Ii cho ding giayang trong nam 2004 se chi dao dtng trongphllmvi 310-400 USDOunce

Trong b5i canh kinh teva chinh trt thegioi hi~n nay rflt kh6 dJ bao chinh xac vegia yang Di~n bien clla gia yang trongtuong lai phl thutc vao rflt nhieu nhan totir Chll quan (cach xlt Iy clla cac ngan hangtrung uong d5i voi yang dJ tru ) cho tOikhach quan (tinh hinh kinh teva chinh trithegioi) trong khi d6 nhieu trong sonhilngnhan to nay la kh6 c6 th~ dJ doan dugc mttcach chinh xac Di~n bien clla gia yangtrong nam 2003 la mtt minh chung

V PHAN LON cAc NlJOC CONG NGHI~PPHAT TRIEN T1EP Tl)C THVC HI~N CHiNHSACH NO LONG TII~NT~

Trong nam 2003 cac nuoc cong nghi~pphat tri~n nhu My Lien minh chau AuThuy Di~n Thuy Sy Nauy va Niu Dilantiep tlC thJc hi~n chinh sach tien ~ noilong voi vi~c ciit giam liii suflt tOi muc thflpky llc trong vong 45 nam k~ til nam 1958

Nguyen Hong 5dn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

(xem Bang 2) Duy tri chinh sach liii sufltzero Ngan hang trung uong Nhit Ban(BOJ) cung tiep tlC md rtng hon nua cungtien bampng cach ~oi long quy dinh d5i voi taikhoan hi~n hanh clla cnc t6 chuc tai chinhtlli BOJ cung nhu slt dll1g mtt so bi~nphap kich thich kinh te kbac Liii sufltdanh nghia thflp dii khien cho liii suat thJctetrung binh clla cac m(oc G7 lfin dfiu tientrong ljch slt k~ tir nam 1970 mang gin triam

T5c dttang trudng kinh tethflp d(ic bi~tla iJ My Lien minh chilu Au va Nhit Bantrong quy 112003 bat 6n dinh dia - chinh trio nhieu noi tren the gioi d(ic bi~t la dTrung Dong va Inic gin diiu tang caonhung tac dtng tieu cc cua s( 116va bongbOng c6 phieu tir niim 2000 khu vJc congngh~ cao tiep tlC tri tr~ nhung tac dtngtieu cJc clla b~rih dich SARS 0 chilu A lanhung nguyen nhan khien cho ngan hangtrung uong nhieu nuoc cong nghi~p phattri~n tiep tJlCthJc hi~n chinh sach tien t~noi long nhampm kich thich sJ phlc hoi cllathi trudng chung khoan chong Illinguy cogiam phat va thuc diiy nen kinh te tangtruong Doi voi khu vJc d5ng Euro vi~cgiam liii suat can giup trung hoa nhung tacdtng tieu cc doi voi xuat khiiu do sv lengia clla Euro so voi Dola My gay nen

NgucJcIllitrong nam 2003 mtt so nganhang trung udng khac nhu ngan hangtrung 1dng Canada dii thJc hi~n chinhsach tien t~ thiit ch(it nhampm chong Ii apIc cua Illmphat TUdng tv nhu viy nganhang trung uong Anh cung dii nang liii suatvao thang 112003 sau khi thuc hien 2 Ifinciit giam mllnh vao nhung thimg diiu namva giu nam

Danh gia dtng thai cua chinh sach tient~ d cac nuoc cong nghi~p phat tri~n trongnam 2003 cac chuyen gia kinh tedeu chorampng chinh sach tien t~ noi long lit phil hcJp

1

1D---------------NhUng in de KINH TE THE GIO 561(93) 2004

- - - bullbull ~) c~

Ngu6n Credit Lyonnais Group Acceleration No 138 December 2003

Bang 2 DIjbiw xu htioog lill suat ella milt s6 mine eong nghi~p phat trin nam 2004

Nhiing di[ie di~m cd ban ella tii ehinh

Chu thich

1 The Economist 11102003

2 The Economist 1392003

3 Ddu tllch(mg khoan 772003

4 The Economist 11102003 692003

dang tiep tve tiem tin nhieu nguy co bat 5ndoi hoi cac nlioc phm tiep tJlCcai t5 co cauthttc hi~n nhung chinh sach ty gia hoi doailinh hOltlthon va tang clidng hqp tac trongvifc phoi hcJpcac chinh sach kinh te vi mod~ co th~ phan ung lltlimQt cach tot nhatdOivoi nhung bien dQngbat ngd co th~ xayra

va kip thdi Nhung chinh sach nay cung voichinh sach tai chinh md rilng d cac mtoccong nghi~p phat tri~n dii co nhUng tacdQng tich cttc toi thi trlidng chung khoan(nhli dii trinh bay d tren) va kich thich cacnen kinh te tang trlidng Sttphvc hili ch~mclla nen kinh te d cac nlioc dIng nghi~pphat tri~n cung voi nhung nguy co giamphiit d mQt s6 nlioc dii khien cho nhieu dttbao cho dlng liii suat d phln IOn cac nliocdIng nghi~p phat tri~n se dlicJcgiu nguyeneho toi cu6i nam 2004 (xem bang 2)

Nhli v~y nhung dillcdi~m n6i b~t clla taichinh-tien t~ the gioi nam 2003 cho thaymillc du phln Ion cac nlioc dii va dang conhUng dieuchinhchinh sach kinh tevi mophu hcJpnhlingtrong Hnh vJc nay v~n

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE Glell 561(93) 2004

IUii suat I Ldi tac trili phieu chinh oh

MIJe3 12 10

thang thang nam 10 30tieu

2nam 5namIibor libor swap nam nam

Mv 281103 100 117 154 457 203 330 426 5082902104 100 115 155 508 205 350 460 550310504 100 120 160 522 220 365 470 560301104 150 165 185 589 300 430 525 595

Nhlit Ban 281103 000 006 009 134 012 056 1302902104 000 010 010 136 010 055 130310504 000 010 010 137 010 055 130301104 000 010 010 188 020 078 175

EU 281103 200 216 246 454 280 375 446 5052902104 200 215 245 478 280 375 450 530310504 200 215 245 499 285 385 460 540301104 225 235 260 525 300 400 480 550

Anh 281103 375 398 458 524 459 495 506 4832902104 400 420 465 558 470 507 518 505310504 425 440 480 574 485 514 523 530301104 450 460 490 590 495 524 533 540

Canada 2811103 275 280 290 322 413 484 5312902104 275 280 290 330 430 510 570310504 275 285 305 330 440 520 580301104 325 335 350 370 490 575 615

Thuv poundIiim 281103 275 289 318 525 323 434 5002902104 275 285 310 535 320 436 505310504 275 290 320 550 330 443 510301104 300 315 340 575 350 463 530

Nguy~n Hong sdn-Philm Anh Tuan

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bull ~li~

Nguyen Hong Sdn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

18 No end Ln sight The Economist22112003

12 Snow business The Economist692003

The

Financial

needed

3 IMF InternationalStatistics 102003

4 WB Global Development Finance2003

10 Re-orientationEconomist 1272003

11 Looking up The Economist692003

8 Grapping with the strong EuroThe Economist 762003

9 Fear of floating The Economist1272003

5 BIS 73Anual Report

6 Monetary Policy Report to theCongress (Report submitted to the Congresson July 15 2003 pursuant to section 2B ofthe Federal Reserve Act) Federal ReserveBulletin August 2003

7 Keep it weak The Economist762003

13 Economics focus - Fix or float TheEconomist 1392003

14 Dont get your hopes down yet TheEconomist 1392003

15 A-a-and down The Economist2792003

16 Rising The Economist 11102003

17 Theyre back The Economist11102003

19 Stuck in the Middle TheEconomist 1112003

20 Thien Long Dong USD co khrlnang con girlm gici DAu tl1 Chung khoanNgay 552003

5 Ddu tuchung khocin 772003 ChUngkhoan Vi~t Nam 82003

6 The Economist 1392003

7 The Economist 692003

8 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

9 The Economist 762003

10 Ddu tuchUng khocin 13102003

11 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

12 The Economist 27112003

13 IMF International FinancialStatistics 102003

14 The Economist 1112003

15 The Economist 1392003

16 The Economist 1262003

17 Trong nam 2003 Nga dii tuyen biltang tj trltmgvang trong dl trft ngorihilichfnh thuc clla minh

18 Thdi ky 1996-1999 gia vang giam(mua he nam 1999 dlilt muc 250USDounce muc thap nhat trong vang 20nam) do 2 nguyen nhan Dola My tang giad6ng thdi vdi sl gia tang clla gia chungkhoan va ngan hang trung l1dng cac nl1dcban vang dl trft

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37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

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41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

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31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

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Nguyen Hong San-Phlm Anh Tuan

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Tuy nhien xet tren khia etnh thljetevi~e tien hanh ap dmg ehe dQ ty gia h6idoai linh hott hdn kho co th~ dultetienhanh theo li~u phap s6e (cae quan ehueQuy Tien t~ Qu6e te cling d6ng y voi quandi~m nay) Trong trudng hltpTrung Qu6eehfmg htnvoi mQth~ thong ngan hang yeukem vi~e than6i d6ng Nhan dan t~ sekhien eho gia tri ella d6ng tien nay bat 6ndinh voi nhilng tae dQng tieu eljekh6ng chid6i voi nen kinh te ella nuoe nay Hdn thenua ehinh vi~e cae nuoe ehau A can thi~pvao thi trudng ngolttihoi sau do dung dljtrungotit~ mua trai phieu ehinh phll My (160ty USD trong nita dftu nam 2003 ehll yeula Trung Qu6e va Nhijt Ban) ltidang giupeho nuoe nay dieu ehinh sljmat can biingd6i ngotitrong ngampn htn cling nhu duy tridultellttrnphat thap kieh thich dulteeftu nQidia va lam soi dQng thi trudng bat dQngsan

Tinh nhtycam va phue tlttPella ty gia diikhien eho mQt so nuoe nhu Trung Quoeehpoundng htn thljehi~n rnQtloat cae giai phapnhiim giam bot sue ep tang gia d6i voi d6ngtien ella minh nhu eho phep cae eong ty giultinhieu ngolttit~ hdn (hi~n tltticae e6ng tyco ngu6n thu ngoltti t~ phai ban toan bQ songoti t~ thu dulteeho ngan hang trungudng) noi long dieu ki~n mua ngolttit~ ehophep cae eong ty rnua trai phieu ngoti t~noi long quy dinh dftu tu ra mtoe ngoaigiam bOt cae bi~n phap khuyen khieh xuatkhflu htn ehe ty 1$ v6n eua cae ngEmhangnuoe ngoai dftu tu vao thi trudng chungkhoan Ngoai ra Trung Qu6e cling dangtinh den vi~e noi long bien dQdao dQngellaty gift

Nhu vijy vl~e ph~ thuQe qua rnue vaoDola My dii khien eho cae nuoe ehau-A riltde bi t6n thudng khOng chi khi d6ng tien

11-------------- NhiJng van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004

Nguy~n Hong 5e1n-Ph~mAnh Tuan Nhling d~e di~m eelban eila tai ehinh

Nga ) xung dqt Trung Dong tra nen kh5cli~t hdn dich b~nh SARS a chau A Xettren khfa cnh kinh te do Ill sJ giam gillcua Dola My lai suat the gioi thap a mucky Ivc cling voi nhung mat can biing co ban(tham hvt tai khoan vang lai IOn a Mynguy cd giam phat nq chfnh phu cua dicnuac d muc cao tham hVt ngan sach giatang ) va sv phvc h6i cham chp cua nilnkinh te toan cllu

Thu hai trong khi diu vil yang tangmnh thi ngu6n cung l(1i giam slit do sanluqng yang khai thac giam v5n Illket quacua sJ giam gill yang m(1nh trong nhungnam tr1ioc doll9 Them vao do ngan hangtrung uong cua nhiilu nUOc tren the gioidac bi~t la ngan himg trung liong chau Aucung da giam so luqng yang dJ tru ban ratren thi trudnglO)

MaC dli cllu vil vang cho san xufit congnghi~p viin chiem ty tr9ng IOnhon ca trongellu vil yang (912 trong thdi ky 19901999) nhung k~ tit khi bi phi tiiln t~ hallvao nam 1971 cling voi sJ svp d6 cua h~th5ng Bretton Woods vang v~n luon duqccoi Ill phuong ti~n tich tru gill tri trongnhung diilu ki~n bfit 6n dinh (chien tranhlm phat phi ma khung hoang kinh te )vasJ bien ding cua gii yang chi co nhunganh hlidng khOng dang k~ toi tinh hinh taichfnh - tiiln t~ tren the gioi

Trong nhung nam glln day gia yangphlln nhiilu phv thuqc vao cllu vil no cungvil yang chi dong vai tra thV ding Bdi vingoai ngu6n cung do khai thac yang tit ma(chiem ty tr9ng Ion nhat) vimg duqc chietxufit tit cac kim loi khic yang che tac l(1itit yang vvn yang tu nhan tich tru tittruoc thi yang dJ tru chfnh thuc cua cacngan hang trung uong cac nuoc tren thegioi hi~n rat Ion (320923 tan trong do Mynlim giu 81354 tan hay 2535 khu vJcd6ng EurC nlim giu 123057 tfin hay

Nhiing vande KINH TE THE GICli 501(93) 2004 --------------- ~

Trang nam 2003 ngtiqc livoi dV doancua tfit ca cac nha kinh te gia yang da biendingvoi xu huang chung Illtang gillmnhva nhiilu Illn dt tOi nhung muc gillky Ivctrong yang 10 nam trd Ii day Neu nhu vaodllu nam 2003 gill yang tren thi trudngLondon va NewYork moi chi d muc khoang340 USDOunce thi vao nhung thang cu5inam gillyang da nhiilu Illn vuqt qua muc400 USDOunce Tinh trung binh nam2003 yang da tang gilltOi 15 so voi nam2002 vuqt qua muc tang cua nhiilu mathang chien lu~c khac nhu dllu tho ching

hnThea cac chuyen gia kinh te co mqt lot

cac nguyen nhan khien yang tang gillmnh trong nam 2003

Thu nhat cllu vil yang tang mnh (ca titphia tu nhan liin nha nuocllS) do tac dingcua nhung bfit 6n chinh tri va kinh te dnhiilu ndi tren the gioi Xet tren khia qnhchfnh tri do Illchien tranh Irlic va nguy cosa Illy cua My sJ Ian rqng cua chu nghiakhung b5 (a 1m Di Th6 Nhi Ky Lien Bang

IV GIA VANG TANG M~NH

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3834) Doc tinh neu so htgng vfmg naydugc bim di thi gia yang chi con 70USDOunce Tuy v(iy neu nhin Ii lich sltclla gia yang thi c6 th~ thfly gia yang hi~nti con dang thflp hon rflt nhieu so voi giayang trong nhung nam 1980 va 1990 (mi)cdil b5i canh kinh tethe gioi hi~n nay khacxa voi thdi diEimd6) D5ng thdi hi~n ti duve yang v1n con rflt IOn a nhieu nuoc nhuAn DtDong A va Trung Dong yang khongchi la d6 trang suc phuong ti~n tich tru giatri rna can la thuoc do gia tri va phuongti~n thanh toano Do v(iyrna cac dJ bao vedi~n bienclla gia yang trong tuong lai g1lnla rflt khac nhau Theo dt bao clla nhieuchuyen gia va Hti d5ng Vang the gioi(WGC) trong nam 2004 gia yang se tieptlC tang tren muc 400 USD va dao dtngtrong khoang 400-500 USDOunce Trongkhi d6 nhieu dJ bao khac Ii cho ding giayang trong nam 2004 se chi dao dtng trongphllmvi 310-400 USDOunce

Trong b5i canh kinh teva chinh trt thegioi hi~n nay rflt kh6 dJ bao chinh xac vegia yang Di~n bien clla gia yang trongtuong lai phl thutc vao rflt nhieu nhan totir Chll quan (cach xlt Iy clla cac ngan hangtrung uong d5i voi yang dJ tru ) cho tOikhach quan (tinh hinh kinh teva chinh trithegioi) trong khi d6 nhieu trong sonhilngnhan to nay la kh6 c6 th~ dJ doan dugc mttcach chinh xac Di~n bien clla gia yangtrong nam 2003 la mtt minh chung

V PHAN LON cAc NlJOC CONG NGHI~PPHAT TRIEN T1EP Tl)C THVC HI~N CHiNHSACH NO LONG TII~NT~

Trong nam 2003 cac nuoc cong nghi~pphat tri~n nhu My Lien minh chau AuThuy Di~n Thuy Sy Nauy va Niu Dilantiep tlC thJc hi~n chinh sach tien ~ noilong voi vi~c ciit giam liii suflt tOi muc thflpky llc trong vong 45 nam k~ til nam 1958

Nguyen Hong 5dn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

(xem Bang 2) Duy tri chinh sach liii sufltzero Ngan hang trung uong Nhit Ban(BOJ) cung tiep tlC md rtng hon nua cungtien bampng cach ~oi long quy dinh d5i voi taikhoan hi~n hanh clla cnc t6 chuc tai chinhtlli BOJ cung nhu slt dll1g mtt so bi~nphap kich thich kinh te kbac Liii sufltdanh nghia thflp dii khien cho liii suat thJctetrung binh clla cac m(oc G7 lfin dfiu tientrong ljch slt k~ tir nam 1970 mang gin triam

T5c dttang trudng kinh tethflp d(ic bi~tla iJ My Lien minh chilu Au va Nhit Bantrong quy 112003 bat 6n dinh dia - chinh trio nhieu noi tren the gioi d(ic bi~t la dTrung Dong va Inic gin diiu tang caonhung tac dtng tieu cc cua s( 116va bongbOng c6 phieu tir niim 2000 khu vJc congngh~ cao tiep tlC tri tr~ nhung tac dtngtieu cJc clla b~rih dich SARS 0 chilu A lanhung nguyen nhan khien cho ngan hangtrung uong nhieu nuoc cong nghi~p phattri~n tiep tJlCthJc hi~n chinh sach tien t~noi long nhampm kich thich sJ phlc hoi cllathi trudng chung khoan chong Illinguy cogiam phat va thuc diiy nen kinh te tangtruong Doi voi khu vJc d5ng Euro vi~cgiam liii suat can giup trung hoa nhung tacdtng tieu cc doi voi xuat khiiu do sv lengia clla Euro so voi Dola My gay nen

NgucJcIllitrong nam 2003 mtt so nganhang trung udng khac nhu ngan hangtrung 1dng Canada dii thJc hi~n chinhsach tien t~ thiit ch(it nhampm chong Ii apIc cua Illmphat TUdng tv nhu viy nganhang trung uong Anh cung dii nang liii suatvao thang 112003 sau khi thuc hien 2 Ifinciit giam mllnh vao nhung thimg diiu namva giu nam

Danh gia dtng thai cua chinh sach tient~ d cac nuoc cong nghi~p phat tri~n trongnam 2003 cac chuyen gia kinh tedeu chorampng chinh sach tien t~ noi long lit phil hcJp

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Ngu6n Credit Lyonnais Group Acceleration No 138 December 2003

Bang 2 DIjbiw xu htioog lill suat ella milt s6 mine eong nghi~p phat trin nam 2004

Nhiing di[ie di~m cd ban ella tii ehinh

Chu thich

1 The Economist 11102003

2 The Economist 1392003

3 Ddu tllch(mg khoan 772003

4 The Economist 11102003 692003

dang tiep tve tiem tin nhieu nguy co bat 5ndoi hoi cac nlioc phm tiep tJlCcai t5 co cauthttc hi~n nhung chinh sach ty gia hoi doailinh hOltlthon va tang clidng hqp tac trongvifc phoi hcJpcac chinh sach kinh te vi mod~ co th~ phan ung lltlimQt cach tot nhatdOivoi nhung bien dQngbat ngd co th~ xayra

va kip thdi Nhung chinh sach nay cung voichinh sach tai chinh md rilng d cac mtoccong nghi~p phat tri~n dii co nhUng tacdQng tich cttc toi thi trlidng chung khoan(nhli dii trinh bay d tren) va kich thich cacnen kinh te tang trlidng Sttphvc hili ch~mclla nen kinh te d cac nlioc dIng nghi~pphat tri~n cung voi nhung nguy co giamphiit d mQt s6 nlioc dii khien cho nhieu dttbao cho dlng liii suat d phln IOn cac nliocdIng nghi~p phat tri~n se dlicJcgiu nguyeneho toi cu6i nam 2004 (xem bang 2)

Nhli v~y nhung dillcdi~m n6i b~t clla taichinh-tien t~ the gioi nam 2003 cho thaymillc du phln Ion cac nlioc dii va dang conhUng dieuchinhchinh sach kinh tevi mophu hcJpnhlingtrong Hnh vJc nay v~n

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE Glell 561(93) 2004

IUii suat I Ldi tac trili phieu chinh oh

MIJe3 12 10

thang thang nam 10 30tieu

2nam 5namIibor libor swap nam nam

Mv 281103 100 117 154 457 203 330 426 5082902104 100 115 155 508 205 350 460 550310504 100 120 160 522 220 365 470 560301104 150 165 185 589 300 430 525 595

Nhlit Ban 281103 000 006 009 134 012 056 1302902104 000 010 010 136 010 055 130310504 000 010 010 137 010 055 130301104 000 010 010 188 020 078 175

EU 281103 200 216 246 454 280 375 446 5052902104 200 215 245 478 280 375 450 530310504 200 215 245 499 285 385 460 540301104 225 235 260 525 300 400 480 550

Anh 281103 375 398 458 524 459 495 506 4832902104 400 420 465 558 470 507 518 505310504 425 440 480 574 485 514 523 530301104 450 460 490 590 495 524 533 540

Canada 2811103 275 280 290 322 413 484 5312902104 275 280 290 330 430 510 570310504 275 285 305 330 440 520 580301104 325 335 350 370 490 575 615

Thuv poundIiim 281103 275 289 318 525 323 434 5002902104 275 285 310 535 320 436 505310504 275 290 320 550 330 443 510301104 300 315 340 575 350 463 530

Nguy~n Hong sdn-Philm Anh Tuan

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18 No end Ln sight The Economist22112003

12 Snow business The Economist692003

The

Financial

needed

3 IMF InternationalStatistics 102003

4 WB Global Development Finance2003

10 Re-orientationEconomist 1272003

11 Looking up The Economist692003

8 Grapping with the strong EuroThe Economist 762003

9 Fear of floating The Economist1272003

5 BIS 73Anual Report

6 Monetary Policy Report to theCongress (Report submitted to the Congresson July 15 2003 pursuant to section 2B ofthe Federal Reserve Act) Federal ReserveBulletin August 2003

7 Keep it weak The Economist762003

13 Economics focus - Fix or float TheEconomist 1392003

14 Dont get your hopes down yet TheEconomist 1392003

15 A-a-and down The Economist2792003

16 Rising The Economist 11102003

17 Theyre back The Economist11102003

19 Stuck in the Middle TheEconomist 1112003

20 Thien Long Dong USD co khrlnang con girlm gici DAu tl1 Chung khoanNgay 552003

5 Ddu tuchung khocin 772003 ChUngkhoan Vi~t Nam 82003

6 The Economist 1392003

7 The Economist 692003

8 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

9 The Economist 762003

10 Ddu tuchUng khocin 13102003

11 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

12 The Economist 27112003

13 IMF International FinancialStatistics 102003

14 The Economist 1112003

15 The Economist 1392003

16 The Economist 1262003

17 Trong nam 2003 Nga dii tuyen biltang tj trltmgvang trong dl trft ngorihilichfnh thuc clla minh

18 Thdi ky 1996-1999 gia vang giam(mua he nam 1999 dlilt muc 250USDounce muc thap nhat trong vang 20nam) do 2 nguyen nhan Dola My tang giad6ng thdi vdi sl gia tang clla gia chungkhoan va ngan hang trung l1dng cac nl1dcban vang dl trft

19 Theo hi~p djnh Washington nganhang trung l1dng clla 15 nl1dc cong nghi~pph at triEln hliln che so 1l1clngvang ban ra toida m6i nam la 400 tan (cac ngan hang nayhi~n dang nlm gift tdi 44 1l1clngvang dltrft the gidi)

Nhiing d~c diiim Cd blm cua tili chin h

TAl LIJ)U TRAM KHAO

1 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

2 IMF Financial Stability Report92003

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36 Minh Tri NrJi long dau tIt ra benngOal D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay17112003

37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

trong ngampn hgn Diiu tli Chung khomNgay 17112003

41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

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29 Hang Due Trung Quoe dltClisue eptang gia NDT ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 1092003

30 Hang Due Cae nltrJeG7 keu gQi tMniJi ty gia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[t NamNgay 2992003

31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

33 Nguyen The Nghii[pDanh ch(intrltrJccd vt tai chinh ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~tNam Ngay 22102003

34 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN My thamhllt ngan sach chlta titng co Ngay23102003

Nhiing VBn de KINH TETHE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------- R

21 Chi DUng Diin bien mgt sci thitrltiJng chung khoan Chau A trong thang5 Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 62003

22 Thien Long Co nen tich triL d6ngdola D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay166200323 Mai Hlidng uin at cd USD D~u

tli Chung khoan Ngay 1662003

24 Phlidng Anh Chau A se phdi xemxct 19i ty gia D~u t1(Chung khoan Ngay236200325 Chi Dung Nhitng dau hi~u 19e

quan mm Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang7200326 Tung Phlidng Diln bien trai chdu

tren thi trltiJng My Bao D~u tli Chungkhoan Ngay 772003

27 Chi Dung Dau hi~u 19cquan titcac thi trltiJng Au-My Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 82003

28 Chi Dung Dau hieu phuc h6i trencae thi trltfmg khu vyenc ehau A Thang92003

Nguylin Hong Sdn-PhltlmAnh Tuan

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_~~[i~~aii29 Nguyen Ouy Lg Quy ngoltlit~dc bi$l ~HoltldQng ngan harlgngoi h6i dc bi~l ph~c vll chi vi$n chien IrlIang (19651975) 96~ Le Sa T~o Ti$crung 102GI Ph~m Slf Ke chuy$n Chuyen giay bc Ngan hang tli Vi$ Sac veK~4 1mI) Tho cau dui tet

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Danh gia nhung tac d9ng clla vi~c DolaMy giam gia tOi kinh te cac nttoc congnghi~p phat tri~n cac chuyen gia kinh t~deu cho dng nhiIng tac d9ng trJc tiep dilivoi I~m phat Ia nho cu 1 tang (giam) clladang tien chi khien cho muc gia tieu dunggiam (tang) them 002003 dili voi Mychau Au va Nhi[ttBan(O)

The nhung tac d9ng gian tiep tOimuc giathOng qua xuat nhi[tp khfiu va qua do MnIlt1inhui[tn clla cac dIng ty I~i dult1cdanh giaIa kha m~nh dijcbi~t dili voi chau Au Doctinh cu 10 tang (giam) gia tri clla Euro sovoi USD se d[n Mn vi~c giam (tang) 3 llt1inhui[tn clla cac cong ty chau Au(IO)va lamgiam 1 tang trudng clla khu VJc nayTrong do nhung tac d9ng nay khac bi~t dilivoi cac nganh nhung nganh chiu tac d9ngm~nh nhat Ia nganh cd khi va san xuat MoTuy vi[tynhung tac d9ng trJc tiep dili voikhu VJcEuro se dult1cbu tru m9t phln bdi sJdt giam Iai suat d chau Au

Dili voi Nhi[tt Ban trong khi clu n9i diatri tr~ tang trudng clla nen kinh te phlthuoc nhieu vao xuat khfiu ma chll yeu lahang di~n ttt va 0 to vi~cdang Yen tang giaso voi Dola My se co nhung tac d9ng tieucJc tOi nen kinh te nen Ngan hang trungudng Nhi[tt Ban da can thi~p m~nh vao thitrudng d~ giam bOt muc d9 tang gia clladang Yen trong 9 thang dlu nam 2003 siltien can thi~p vao thi trudng ngo~i hili cllaNhi[tt Ban len tOi 122 ty USD vult1tmuc kyllc 6915 ty USD trong nam 1999(11)Tuyvi[tyvi~c can thi~p vao thi trudng ngo~i hilico th~ giup do dult1ccac nganh xuat khfiunhung l~i co tac d9ng tieu cJctOicac nganhkhac Hi~n t~i voi lai suat zero Nhi[tt Bandang bdm tien vao nen kinh te bilng nhungbi~n phap phi truyen thilng nhu md r9ngtai khoan hi~n hanh clla cac ngan hang dngan hang trung udng va mua trill phieu

Nguylln Hong 5cln-Ph~m Anh Twin

chinh phll nhung tac d9ng kich thich nenkinh te tang trudng con rat hn che Nhieunha kinh te cho rilng Nhi[tt Ban nen apdlng chinh sach hen t~ mlc tieu Imphiit d~ dieu tiet nen kinh teo

Nhu vi[tysJ giam gia clla USD dult1ccoila phu hlt1pvOicac dieu ki~n kinh te cd banclla nen kinh te the gioi trong trung hn(xet ve dai hn USD van hep tlc caogia(12raquoDay Ia sJ giam gia co triit tl1vachap nhi[tn dult1cnhilm gium sl1mat canbilng dili ngoi clla My va khOng gay nentinh trng d9t bien SJ gium gia clla DolaMy se giup chuy~n d(ng IJc tang trudngclla My tU ciiu n9i dia sang xuat khfiu chophep ngltdi tieu dung tang tiet ki~m vagiam tham hlt tai khoan viing lai ChauAu va Nhi[tt Ban se bi anh hUdng ve xuatkhfiu nhung dieu do se dult1cbli tru m9tphln bdi vi~c noi long tien t~ Chinh vi vi)yrna cac nuoc G7 dii keu g9i cac nuoc apdlng che d( ty gia hili doni Iinh ho~t hdnsau CU9Ch9P vao thang 92003 (Idi keu g9inay khien nhieu nha binh IU(1llcho rilngMy dii tU bo chinh sach dang Dola mnh vagay suc ep dili voi Trung Quilc va Nhi)t Bantrong vi~c nang gia dang hen n9i dia cllah9)

Xet ve dai hn sJ gium gin tiep theo cllaDola My la dieu khO tranh khoi Tinh Mn26112003 dang tien nay moi gium 1438so voi ti[tp hlt1pcac dang tien clla nhungnuoc giau trong khi tai khoan vang Iai dJHnh se con tham hlt 4 GDP trong num2004 Nam 1985 dang tien nay da giam toi40 trong khi muc tham hlt tai khoanvang Iai chi Ia 3 GDP(jl) Muc d( bunchat va thdi gian giam gia tiep theo cllaUSD la kh6 dJ doan va lich stt dii chi rarilng thi[tmchi voi nhung dieu chinh co tri[tttJ clla USD cung van kern theo s1j tangtnJdng chi[tmIi clla nen kinh te My (thi[tmchi clla cii kinh te the gioi) Nhfrng thay d6i

1

11-------------- Nhiing van de KINH TE THE GIOI 501(93) 2004

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Nhfmg van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------

Nguy~n Hong Sc1nPh~mAnh Tuan

dQt bien hay vuett qua dieh (overshooting)viin tiep tle la nguy Cd lOn d~e bi~t la khisl1giam gia ella USD khOng di kern voi sl1tang gia tuoog ling ella cae d6ng tien khaenhilt la dOivm nhung nuoe co ehe dQty giae6 dinh ho~e co sl1milt can biing d6i ngoiJOnva h~ th6ng tai ehinh - ngan hang yeukern

III cAc DONG TII~N cHAu A THAP GIA

NgI1~e Iivoi theli ky tnioe khi xay rakhling hoang tai ehinh - tien t~ ehau A1997-1998 nam 2003 du~e eoi la la nam macae d6ng tien ehau A thilp gia so voi caed6ng tien mnh khae Sl1thilp gia ella caed6ng tien nay th~ hi~n a ehb trong khi DolaMy milt gia danh nghia toi 142 so voiEuro va 974 so voi Yen Nh1ltBan thi caed6ng tien ehau A ho~e giu nguyen gia tridanh nghia do nhUng d6ng tien nay du~e e6dinh so voi Dola My (Nhiln dan t~ TrungQu6e Dola H6ng Kong Ringgit Malaixia)hoii-etang gia khong dang k~ (tit 17 deuron8 d6i voi Dola Xingapo Dola Dai LoanRupiah Indonexia va Baht Thai Lan) tMmchi co d6ng tien can giam gia (PesoPhilippin) nhel sl1can thi~p ella cae nganhang trung udng vao thi tnielng ngoih6i

Theo Ngiin hang Thuy Sy UBS trong s6cae d6ng tien ehau A thilp gia nhat la d6ngNhan dan t~ (20 theo My la 40) tieptheo sau la Yen Nhat Ban Dola Dai LoanDola Xingapo va it thilp gia hoo ca laRinggit Malaixia Dola H6ng Kong va WonHan Qu6c Cling theo UBS sl1thap gia ellaella cae d6ng tien nay can th~ hi~n a sli giatang ella dl1tru ngoi t~ cling nfu a thii-ngdu can can thanh toan cd ban (tai khoanvang lai + v6n dai hn rang) Ca hai tieuchi nay deu rilt ro net a ehau A d~e bi~t xettren khia enh dl1 tru ngoi t~ So voithling 12 nam 2002 vao thang 7 va 82003dl1tm ngoit~ ella cae nen kinh te ehilu A

Nhiing dii-edi~m co blm eua tiii ehinh

nhu Nh1lt Ban Trung Quoe H6ng KongXingapo Indonexia Malaixia Thai LanHan Qu6e va Philippin da tang 178779 tyUSD tit mue 1167033 ty USD len deuron1345812 ty USD(14)

Cae nuac ehau A khOng mu6n d~ d6ngtien nuoe minh len gia mnh vi s~ anhhuang tai xuilt khftu va eong an vi~e lam(cae nuoe nay dinh gia hang hoa ella h9biing USD ngay ea trong thudng mi voinhau 80 hang hoa ella Han Qu6e ehiinghn du~e dinh gia biing USD(I5)) cling nhugiam ph at (dOi voi cae ntioe co thi trtielngmoi n6i dQco gian ella gia dOi voi ty gia larat lOn tai 41 nhu a Indonexia ehiinghn(16))Them vao do vi~e co du~e mQtlu~ng dl1tm ngoi t~ Ion se gilip eho caenuoe co kha nang bao v~ gia tri d6ng tienella minh mQt khi xay ra cae eli soc tieuelie

Tuy nhien sl1thap gia ella cae d6ng tienehau A neu dti~e duy tri qua lau se Iiconhung tae dQng tieu el1ekhong chi tai nenkinh te ella cae ntioe do ma ngay ea toi sl16n dinh ella nen kinh te toan diu

TMt nhat d6ng tien n(ii dia tMp giad6ng nghia voi sl1gia tang dl1tru ngoi t~tang va sl1banh truong tin dlng voi h1luqua la bong bong tai san dii-ebi~t la biltdQng san se xuilt hi~n voi nguy cd quanong ella nen kinh teoNgoai ra sl1gia tangella dl1tru ngoi~ mQt mii-t lam tang khanang bao v~ ty gia ella cae nuoe mii-t khaeIi to ra nhung chi phi va rlli ro nhiltdinh liii suat ella trai phieu kho bfe Mythap hdn I~i tue dua Ii tit cae khoan dau tukhae sli thap gia ella d6ng tien se khuyenkhich xuat khftu nhung d6ng thelicling hnehe nh1lp khftu cling nhu hn ehe vi~eehiiy~n sang nhung nganh slt dlng laodQng co trinh dQ eao (dieu quan tr9ng doivoi tang trudng trong dai hltm) lt

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Thu hai vi~e die d6ng tien ehau A thapgia dang la vl[lt can trong vi~e xoa bo sljmat can biing cd ban ella nen kinh te toandou ehau A chiem tOi 12 tham h~t can cantai khoan viing lai ella My Trong do thamhut ella My d6i voi Trung Qu6e la 103 tyUSD(17)nam 2002 va khoang 130-150 tyUSD nam 2003 Sljthap gia ella cae d6ngtien ehau A se khien eho Euro phill tanggia mtnh hdn mue don thiet va dieu nay setto nen nguy cd eao gia ella d6ng tien voinhunghl[lu qua tieu eljetOi nen kinh tekhong chi trong khu vljed6ng Euro

Thu ba sljthap gia ella d6ng tien con coth~ dfin den sljbao hi ella cae mtoe khaeNhung d(mg thai bao hQ ella My d6i voihang hoa Trung Qu6e trong nhung thangeu6i nam2003 la nhung biing chung ro neteho thily dieu do My luon eho riing Nhanbull diin t~ dang dultJcdinh gia qua thilp va dieudo dang khien eho nganh eong nghi~p ellaMy bi anh huang voi hl[lu qua la thatnghi~p gia tang mtnh (Trung Qu6e ltiehoriing chua co chung eu xae thljed~ chungminh riing Nhan dan t~ thilp gia va Mydang mu6n tim kiem nguyen nhan benngoai eho nhung viln de trong nuoe)

Chinh vi nhung ly do tren rna tuyen b6ella cae nuoe G7 sau eUQeh9P vao thang92000 dii keu g9i cae nuoe dijebi~t la caenuoe ehau A ap d~ng ehe dQty gia h6i doailinh hott hdn (nhieu nha binh lul[ln ehoriing Idi keu g9i nay ehll yeu nhiim vaoTrung Qu6e va Nhijt Ban) Xet tren khiaetnh ly thuyet vi~e ap d~ng ehe dQty giah6i doai linh hott hdn se khien eho caemtoe ehau A giam dultenhieu rlli ro trongtUdng lai tang trudng se it dljahdn vao ehuky kinh te toan dou giam dultechi phitrong vi~e nampm giu dljtril ngoti t~ tangeudng cd hQi chi tieu eho nhung ngudi eutru trong Mu ki~n d6ng tien thilp gia va

Nguyen Hong San-Phlm Anh Tuan

giup khoi ph~e ltisljmat can biing ella nenkinh te toan eftu

Tuy nhien xet tren khia etnh thljetevi~e tien hanh ap dmg ehe dQ ty gia h6idoai linh hott hdn kho co th~ dultetienhanh theo li~u phap s6e (cae quan ehueQuy Tien t~ Qu6e te cling d6ng y voi quandi~m nay) Trong trudng hltpTrung Qu6eehfmg htnvoi mQth~ thong ngan hang yeukem vi~e than6i d6ng Nhan dan t~ sekhien eho gia tri ella d6ng tien nay bat 6ndinh voi nhilng tae dQng tieu eljekh6ng chid6i voi nen kinh te ella nuoe nay Hdn thenua ehinh vi~e cae nuoe ehau A can thi~pvao thi trudng ngolttihoi sau do dung dljtrungotit~ mua trai phieu ehinh phll My (160ty USD trong nita dftu nam 2003 ehll yeula Trung Qu6e va Nhijt Ban) ltidang giupeho nuoe nay dieu ehinh sljmat can biingd6i ngotitrong ngampn htn cling nhu duy tridultellttrnphat thap kieh thich dulteeftu nQidia va lam soi dQng thi trudng bat dQngsan

Tinh nhtycam va phue tlttPella ty gia diikhien eho mQt so nuoe nhu Trung Quoeehpoundng htn thljehi~n rnQtloat cae giai phapnhiim giam bot sue ep tang gia d6i voi d6ngtien ella minh nhu eho phep cae eong ty giultinhieu ngolttit~ hdn (hi~n tltticae e6ng tyco ngu6n thu ngoltti t~ phai ban toan bQ songoti t~ thu dulteeho ngan hang trungudng) noi long dieu ki~n mua ngolttit~ ehophep cae eong ty rnua trai phieu ngoti t~noi long quy dinh dftu tu ra mtoe ngoaigiam bOt cae bi~n phap khuyen khieh xuatkhflu htn ehe ty 1$ v6n eua cae ngEmhangnuoe ngoai dftu tu vao thi trudng chungkhoan Ngoai ra Trung Qu6e cling dangtinh den vi~e noi long bien dQdao dQngellaty gift

Nhu vijy vl~e ph~ thuQe qua rnue vaoDola My dii khien eho cae nuoe ehau-A riltde bi t6n thudng khOng chi khi d6ng tien

11-------------- NhiJng van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004

Nguy~n Hong 5e1n-Ph~mAnh Tuan Nhling d~e di~m eelban eila tai ehinh

Nga ) xung dqt Trung Dong tra nen kh5cli~t hdn dich b~nh SARS a chau A Xettren khfa cnh kinh te do Ill sJ giam gillcua Dola My lai suat the gioi thap a mucky Ivc cling voi nhung mat can biing co ban(tham hvt tai khoan vang lai IOn a Mynguy cd giam phat nq chfnh phu cua dicnuac d muc cao tham hVt ngan sach giatang ) va sv phvc h6i cham chp cua nilnkinh te toan cllu

Thu hai trong khi diu vil yang tangmnh thi ngu6n cung l(1i giam slit do sanluqng yang khai thac giam v5n Illket quacua sJ giam gill yang m(1nh trong nhungnam tr1ioc doll9 Them vao do ngan hangtrung uong cua nhiilu nUOc tren the gioidac bi~t la ngan himg trung liong chau Aucung da giam so luqng yang dJ tru ban ratren thi trudnglO)

MaC dli cllu vil vang cho san xufit congnghi~p viin chiem ty tr9ng IOnhon ca trongellu vil yang (912 trong thdi ky 19901999) nhung k~ tit khi bi phi tiiln t~ hallvao nam 1971 cling voi sJ svp d6 cua h~th5ng Bretton Woods vang v~n luon duqccoi Ill phuong ti~n tich tru gill tri trongnhung diilu ki~n bfit 6n dinh (chien tranhlm phat phi ma khung hoang kinh te )vasJ bien ding cua gii yang chi co nhunganh hlidng khOng dang k~ toi tinh hinh taichfnh - tiiln t~ tren the gioi

Trong nhung nam glln day gia yangphlln nhiilu phv thuqc vao cllu vil no cungvil yang chi dong vai tra thV ding Bdi vingoai ngu6n cung do khai thac yang tit ma(chiem ty tr9ng Ion nhat) vimg duqc chietxufit tit cac kim loi khic yang che tac l(1itit yang vvn yang tu nhan tich tru tittruoc thi yang dJ tru chfnh thuc cua cacngan hang trung uong cac nuoc tren thegioi hi~n rat Ion (320923 tan trong do Mynlim giu 81354 tan hay 2535 khu vJcd6ng EurC nlim giu 123057 tfin hay

Nhiing vande KINH TE THE GICli 501(93) 2004 --------------- ~

Trang nam 2003 ngtiqc livoi dV doancua tfit ca cac nha kinh te gia yang da biendingvoi xu huang chung Illtang gillmnhva nhiilu Illn dt tOi nhung muc gillky Ivctrong yang 10 nam trd Ii day Neu nhu vaodllu nam 2003 gill yang tren thi trudngLondon va NewYork moi chi d muc khoang340 USDOunce thi vao nhung thang cu5inam gillyang da nhiilu Illn vuqt qua muc400 USDOunce Tinh trung binh nam2003 yang da tang gilltOi 15 so voi nam2002 vuqt qua muc tang cua nhiilu mathang chien lu~c khac nhu dllu tho ching

hnThea cac chuyen gia kinh te co mqt lot

cac nguyen nhan khien yang tang gillmnh trong nam 2003

Thu nhat cllu vil yang tang mnh (ca titphia tu nhan liin nha nuocllS) do tac dingcua nhung bfit 6n chinh tri va kinh te dnhiilu ndi tren the gioi Xet tren khia qnhchfnh tri do Illchien tranh Irlic va nguy cosa Illy cua My sJ Ian rqng cua chu nghiakhung b5 (a 1m Di Th6 Nhi Ky Lien Bang

IV GIA VANG TANG M~NH

nay tang gill mnh ma ngay ca khi noxu5ng gill mnh so voi cac d6ng tiiln chuch5t khac Do do sau khung hoang taichfnh - tiiln t~ 19971998 cac mioc chfm Ada rfit tfch cJc trong vi~c tim kiem nhungbi~n phap hqp tac tai chfnh tiiln t~ khuvfc nhiim giam thi~u sJ phv thuic quamuc vao Dola My nhu thanh l-pquy traiphieu chau A ky ket cac hi~pdinh hoan d6itiiln t~ song phudng va da phudng tren cosd Sang kien Chiilng Mai y tUdng thanhI-pkhu vJc tiiln t~ Dong A MaCdli nhungbi~n phap hqp tac nay chua dua li nhungket qua thJc sJnhu mong mu5n nhung dayIllnhung huong di dung nhiim to ra mitmoi trudng tai chfnh - tiiln W 6n dinh trongkh)vJcva tren the gioi

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3834) Doc tinh neu so htgng vfmg naydugc bim di thi gia yang chi con 70USDOunce Tuy v(iy neu nhin Ii lich sltclla gia yang thi c6 th~ thfly gia yang hi~nti con dang thflp hon rflt nhieu so voi giayang trong nhung nam 1980 va 1990 (mi)cdil b5i canh kinh tethe gioi hi~n nay khacxa voi thdi diEimd6) D5ng thdi hi~n ti duve yang v1n con rflt IOn a nhieu nuoc nhuAn DtDong A va Trung Dong yang khongchi la d6 trang suc phuong ti~n tich tru giatri rna can la thuoc do gia tri va phuongti~n thanh toano Do v(iyrna cac dJ bao vedi~n bienclla gia yang trong tuong lai g1lnla rflt khac nhau Theo dt bao clla nhieuchuyen gia va Hti d5ng Vang the gioi(WGC) trong nam 2004 gia yang se tieptlC tang tren muc 400 USD va dao dtngtrong khoang 400-500 USDOunce Trongkhi d6 nhieu dJ bao khac Ii cho ding giayang trong nam 2004 se chi dao dtng trongphllmvi 310-400 USDOunce

Trong b5i canh kinh teva chinh trt thegioi hi~n nay rflt kh6 dJ bao chinh xac vegia yang Di~n bien clla gia yang trongtuong lai phl thutc vao rflt nhieu nhan totir Chll quan (cach xlt Iy clla cac ngan hangtrung uong d5i voi yang dJ tru ) cho tOikhach quan (tinh hinh kinh teva chinh trithegioi) trong khi d6 nhieu trong sonhilngnhan to nay la kh6 c6 th~ dJ doan dugc mttcach chinh xac Di~n bien clla gia yangtrong nam 2003 la mtt minh chung

V PHAN LON cAc NlJOC CONG NGHI~PPHAT TRIEN T1EP Tl)C THVC HI~N CHiNHSACH NO LONG TII~NT~

Trong nam 2003 cac nuoc cong nghi~pphat tri~n nhu My Lien minh chau AuThuy Di~n Thuy Sy Nauy va Niu Dilantiep tlC thJc hi~n chinh sach tien ~ noilong voi vi~c ciit giam liii suflt tOi muc thflpky llc trong vong 45 nam k~ til nam 1958

Nguyen Hong 5dn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

(xem Bang 2) Duy tri chinh sach liii sufltzero Ngan hang trung uong Nhit Ban(BOJ) cung tiep tlC md rtng hon nua cungtien bampng cach ~oi long quy dinh d5i voi taikhoan hi~n hanh clla cnc t6 chuc tai chinhtlli BOJ cung nhu slt dll1g mtt so bi~nphap kich thich kinh te kbac Liii sufltdanh nghia thflp dii khien cho liii suat thJctetrung binh clla cac m(oc G7 lfin dfiu tientrong ljch slt k~ tir nam 1970 mang gin triam

T5c dttang trudng kinh tethflp d(ic bi~tla iJ My Lien minh chilu Au va Nhit Bantrong quy 112003 bat 6n dinh dia - chinh trio nhieu noi tren the gioi d(ic bi~t la dTrung Dong va Inic gin diiu tang caonhung tac dtng tieu cc cua s( 116va bongbOng c6 phieu tir niim 2000 khu vJc congngh~ cao tiep tlC tri tr~ nhung tac dtngtieu cJc clla b~rih dich SARS 0 chilu A lanhung nguyen nhan khien cho ngan hangtrung uong nhieu nuoc cong nghi~p phattri~n tiep tJlCthJc hi~n chinh sach tien t~noi long nhampm kich thich sJ phlc hoi cllathi trudng chung khoan chong Illinguy cogiam phat va thuc diiy nen kinh te tangtruong Doi voi khu vJc d5ng Euro vi~cgiam liii suat can giup trung hoa nhung tacdtng tieu cc doi voi xuat khiiu do sv lengia clla Euro so voi Dola My gay nen

NgucJcIllitrong nam 2003 mtt so nganhang trung udng khac nhu ngan hangtrung 1dng Canada dii thJc hi~n chinhsach tien t~ thiit ch(it nhampm chong Ii apIc cua Illmphat TUdng tv nhu viy nganhang trung uong Anh cung dii nang liii suatvao thang 112003 sau khi thuc hien 2 Ifinciit giam mllnh vao nhung thimg diiu namva giu nam

Danh gia dtng thai cua chinh sach tient~ d cac nuoc cong nghi~p phat tri~n trongnam 2003 cac chuyen gia kinh tedeu chorampng chinh sach tien t~ noi long lit phil hcJp

1

1D---------------NhUng in de KINH TE THE GIO 561(93) 2004

- - - bullbull ~) c~

Ngu6n Credit Lyonnais Group Acceleration No 138 December 2003

Bang 2 DIjbiw xu htioog lill suat ella milt s6 mine eong nghi~p phat trin nam 2004

Nhiing di[ie di~m cd ban ella tii ehinh

Chu thich

1 The Economist 11102003

2 The Economist 1392003

3 Ddu tllch(mg khoan 772003

4 The Economist 11102003 692003

dang tiep tve tiem tin nhieu nguy co bat 5ndoi hoi cac nlioc phm tiep tJlCcai t5 co cauthttc hi~n nhung chinh sach ty gia hoi doailinh hOltlthon va tang clidng hqp tac trongvifc phoi hcJpcac chinh sach kinh te vi mod~ co th~ phan ung lltlimQt cach tot nhatdOivoi nhung bien dQngbat ngd co th~ xayra

va kip thdi Nhung chinh sach nay cung voichinh sach tai chinh md rilng d cac mtoccong nghi~p phat tri~n dii co nhUng tacdQng tich cttc toi thi trlidng chung khoan(nhli dii trinh bay d tren) va kich thich cacnen kinh te tang trlidng Sttphvc hili ch~mclla nen kinh te d cac nlioc dIng nghi~pphat tri~n cung voi nhung nguy co giamphiit d mQt s6 nlioc dii khien cho nhieu dttbao cho dlng liii suat d phln IOn cac nliocdIng nghi~p phat tri~n se dlicJcgiu nguyeneho toi cu6i nam 2004 (xem bang 2)

Nhli v~y nhung dillcdi~m n6i b~t clla taichinh-tien t~ the gioi nam 2003 cho thaymillc du phln Ion cac nlioc dii va dang conhUng dieuchinhchinh sach kinh tevi mophu hcJpnhlingtrong Hnh vJc nay v~n

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE Glell 561(93) 2004

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MIJe3 12 10

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2nam 5namIibor libor swap nam nam

Mv 281103 100 117 154 457 203 330 426 5082902104 100 115 155 508 205 350 460 550310504 100 120 160 522 220 365 470 560301104 150 165 185 589 300 430 525 595

Nhlit Ban 281103 000 006 009 134 012 056 1302902104 000 010 010 136 010 055 130310504 000 010 010 137 010 055 130301104 000 010 010 188 020 078 175

EU 281103 200 216 246 454 280 375 446 5052902104 200 215 245 478 280 375 450 530310504 200 215 245 499 285 385 460 540301104 225 235 260 525 300 400 480 550

Anh 281103 375 398 458 524 459 495 506 4832902104 400 420 465 558 470 507 518 505310504 425 440 480 574 485 514 523 530301104 450 460 490 590 495 524 533 540

Canada 2811103 275 280 290 322 413 484 5312902104 275 280 290 330 430 510 570310504 275 285 305 330 440 520 580301104 325 335 350 370 490 575 615

Thuv poundIiim 281103 275 289 318 525 323 434 5002902104 275 285 310 535 320 436 505310504 275 290 320 550 330 443 510301104 300 315 340 575 350 463 530

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18 No end Ln sight The Economist22112003

12 Snow business The Economist692003

The

Financial

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3 IMF InternationalStatistics 102003

4 WB Global Development Finance2003

10 Re-orientationEconomist 1272003

11 Looking up The Economist692003

8 Grapping with the strong EuroThe Economist 762003

9 Fear of floating The Economist1272003

5 BIS 73Anual Report

6 Monetary Policy Report to theCongress (Report submitted to the Congresson July 15 2003 pursuant to section 2B ofthe Federal Reserve Act) Federal ReserveBulletin August 2003

7 Keep it weak The Economist762003

13 Economics focus - Fix or float TheEconomist 1392003

14 Dont get your hopes down yet TheEconomist 1392003

15 A-a-and down The Economist2792003

16 Rising The Economist 11102003

17 Theyre back The Economist11102003

19 Stuck in the Middle TheEconomist 1112003

20 Thien Long Dong USD co khrlnang con girlm gici DAu tl1 Chung khoanNgay 552003

5 Ddu tuchung khocin 772003 ChUngkhoan Vi~t Nam 82003

6 The Economist 1392003

7 The Economist 692003

8 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

9 The Economist 762003

10 Ddu tuchUng khocin 13102003

11 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

12 The Economist 27112003

13 IMF International FinancialStatistics 102003

14 The Economist 1112003

15 The Economist 1392003

16 The Economist 1262003

17 Trong nam 2003 Nga dii tuyen biltang tj trltmgvang trong dl trft ngorihilichfnh thuc clla minh

18 Thdi ky 1996-1999 gia vang giam(mua he nam 1999 dlilt muc 250USDounce muc thap nhat trong vang 20nam) do 2 nguyen nhan Dola My tang giad6ng thdi vdi sl gia tang clla gia chungkhoan va ngan hang trung l1dng cac nl1dcban vang dl trft

19 Theo hi~p djnh Washington nganhang trung l1dng clla 15 nl1dc cong nghi~pph at triEln hliln che so 1l1clngvang ban ra toida m6i nam la 400 tan (cac ngan hang nayhi~n dang nlm gift tdi 44 1l1clngvang dltrft the gidi)

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TAl LIJ)U TRAM KHAO

1 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

2 IMF Financial Stability Report92003

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36 Minh Tri NrJi long dau tIt ra benngOal D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay17112003

37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

trong ngampn hgn Diiu tli Chung khomNgay 17112003

41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

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29 Hang Due Trung Quoe dltClisue eptang gia NDT ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 1092003

30 Hang Due Cae nltrJeG7 keu gQi tMniJi ty gia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[t NamNgay 2992003

31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

33 Nguyen The Nghii[pDanh ch(intrltrJccd vt tai chinh ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~tNam Ngay 22102003

34 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN My thamhllt ngan sach chlta titng co Ngay23102003

Nhiing VBn de KINH TETHE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------- R

21 Chi DUng Diin bien mgt sci thitrltiJng chung khoan Chau A trong thang5 Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 62003

22 Thien Long Co nen tich triL d6ngdola D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay166200323 Mai Hlidng uin at cd USD D~u

tli Chung khoan Ngay 1662003

24 Phlidng Anh Chau A se phdi xemxct 19i ty gia D~u t1(Chung khoan Ngay236200325 Chi Dung Nhitng dau hi~u 19e

quan mm Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang7200326 Tung Phlidng Diln bien trai chdu

tren thi trltiJng My Bao D~u tli Chungkhoan Ngay 772003

27 Chi Dung Dau hi~u 19cquan titcac thi trltiJng Au-My Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 82003

28 Chi Dung Dau hieu phuc h6i trencae thi trltfmg khu vyenc ehau A Thang92003

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NgI1~e Iivoi theli ky tnioe khi xay rakhling hoang tai ehinh - tien t~ ehau A1997-1998 nam 2003 du~e eoi la la nam macae d6ng tien ehau A thilp gia so voi caed6ng tien mnh khae Sl1thilp gia ella caed6ng tien nay th~ hi~n a ehb trong khi DolaMy milt gia danh nghia toi 142 so voiEuro va 974 so voi Yen Nh1ltBan thi caed6ng tien ehau A ho~e giu nguyen gia tridanh nghia do nhUng d6ng tien nay du~e e6dinh so voi Dola My (Nhiln dan t~ TrungQu6e Dola H6ng Kong Ringgit Malaixia)hoii-etang gia khong dang k~ (tit 17 deuron8 d6i voi Dola Xingapo Dola Dai LoanRupiah Indonexia va Baht Thai Lan) tMmchi co d6ng tien can giam gia (PesoPhilippin) nhel sl1can thi~p ella cae nganhang trung udng vao thi tnielng ngoih6i

Theo Ngiin hang Thuy Sy UBS trong s6cae d6ng tien ehau A thilp gia nhat la d6ngNhan dan t~ (20 theo My la 40) tieptheo sau la Yen Nhat Ban Dola Dai LoanDola Xingapo va it thilp gia hoo ca laRinggit Malaixia Dola H6ng Kong va WonHan Qu6c Cling theo UBS sl1thap gia ellaella cae d6ng tien nay can th~ hi~n a sli giatang ella dl1tru ngoi t~ cling nfu a thii-ngdu can can thanh toan cd ban (tai khoanvang lai + v6n dai hn rang) Ca hai tieuchi nay deu rilt ro net a ehau A d~e bi~t xettren khia enh dl1 tru ngoi t~ So voithling 12 nam 2002 vao thang 7 va 82003dl1tm ngoit~ ella cae nen kinh te ehilu A

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nhu Nh1lt Ban Trung Quoe H6ng KongXingapo Indonexia Malaixia Thai LanHan Qu6e va Philippin da tang 178779 tyUSD tit mue 1167033 ty USD len deuron1345812 ty USD(14)

Cae nuac ehau A khOng mu6n d~ d6ngtien nuoe minh len gia mnh vi s~ anhhuang tai xuilt khftu va eong an vi~e lam(cae nuoe nay dinh gia hang hoa ella h9biing USD ngay ea trong thudng mi voinhau 80 hang hoa ella Han Qu6e ehiinghn du~e dinh gia biing USD(I5)) cling nhugiam ph at (dOi voi cae ntioe co thi trtielngmoi n6i dQco gian ella gia dOi voi ty gia larat lOn tai 41 nhu a Indonexia ehiinghn(16))Them vao do vi~e co du~e mQtlu~ng dl1tm ngoi t~ Ion se gilip eho caenuoe co kha nang bao v~ gia tri d6ng tienella minh mQt khi xay ra cae eli soc tieuelie

Tuy nhien sl1thap gia ella cae d6ng tienehau A neu dti~e duy tri qua lau se Iiconhung tae dQng tieu el1ekhong chi tai nenkinh te ella cae ntioe do ma ngay ea toi sl16n dinh ella nen kinh te toan diu

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Chinh vi nhung ly do tren rna tuyen b6ella cae nuoe G7 sau eUQeh9P vao thang92000 dii keu g9i cae nuoe dijebi~t la caenuoe ehau A ap d~ng ehe dQty gia h6i doailinh hott hdn (nhieu nha binh lul[ln ehoriing Idi keu g9i nay ehll yeu nhiim vaoTrung Qu6e va Nhijt Ban) Xet tren khiaetnh ly thuyet vi~e ap d~ng ehe dQty giah6i doai linh hott hdn se khien eho caemtoe ehau A giam dultenhieu rlli ro trongtUdng lai tang trudng se it dljahdn vao ehuky kinh te toan dou giam dultechi phitrong vi~e nampm giu dljtril ngoti t~ tangeudng cd hQi chi tieu eho nhung ngudi eutru trong Mu ki~n d6ng tien thilp gia va

Nguyen Hong San-Phlm Anh Tuan

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Tuy nhien xet tren khia etnh thljetevi~e tien hanh ap dmg ehe dQ ty gia h6idoai linh hott hdn kho co th~ dultetienhanh theo li~u phap s6e (cae quan ehueQuy Tien t~ Qu6e te cling d6ng y voi quandi~m nay) Trong trudng hltpTrung Qu6eehfmg htnvoi mQth~ thong ngan hang yeukem vi~e than6i d6ng Nhan dan t~ sekhien eho gia tri ella d6ng tien nay bat 6ndinh voi nhilng tae dQng tieu eljekh6ng chid6i voi nen kinh te ella nuoe nay Hdn thenua ehinh vi~e cae nuoe ehau A can thi~pvao thi trudng ngolttihoi sau do dung dljtrungotit~ mua trai phieu ehinh phll My (160ty USD trong nita dftu nam 2003 ehll yeula Trung Qu6e va Nhijt Ban) ltidang giupeho nuoe nay dieu ehinh sljmat can biingd6i ngotitrong ngampn htn cling nhu duy tridultellttrnphat thap kieh thich dulteeftu nQidia va lam soi dQng thi trudng bat dQngsan

Tinh nhtycam va phue tlttPella ty gia diikhien eho mQt so nuoe nhu Trung Quoeehpoundng htn thljehi~n rnQtloat cae giai phapnhiim giam bot sue ep tang gia d6i voi d6ngtien ella minh nhu eho phep cae eong ty giultinhieu ngolttit~ hdn (hi~n tltticae e6ng tyco ngu6n thu ngoltti t~ phai ban toan bQ songoti t~ thu dulteeho ngan hang trungudng) noi long dieu ki~n mua ngolttit~ ehophep cae eong ty rnua trai phieu ngoti t~noi long quy dinh dftu tu ra mtoe ngoaigiam bOt cae bi~n phap khuyen khieh xuatkhflu htn ehe ty 1$ v6n eua cae ngEmhangnuoe ngoai dftu tu vao thi trudng chungkhoan Ngoai ra Trung Qu6e cling dangtinh den vi~e noi long bien dQdao dQngellaty gift

Nhu vijy vl~e ph~ thuQe qua rnue vaoDola My dii khien eho cae nuoe ehau-A riltde bi t6n thudng khOng chi khi d6ng tien

11-------------- NhiJng van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004

Nguy~n Hong 5e1n-Ph~mAnh Tuan Nhling d~e di~m eelban eila tai ehinh

Nga ) xung dqt Trung Dong tra nen kh5cli~t hdn dich b~nh SARS a chau A Xettren khfa cnh kinh te do Ill sJ giam gillcua Dola My lai suat the gioi thap a mucky Ivc cling voi nhung mat can biing co ban(tham hvt tai khoan vang lai IOn a Mynguy cd giam phat nq chfnh phu cua dicnuac d muc cao tham hVt ngan sach giatang ) va sv phvc h6i cham chp cua nilnkinh te toan cllu

Thu hai trong khi diu vil yang tangmnh thi ngu6n cung l(1i giam slit do sanluqng yang khai thac giam v5n Illket quacua sJ giam gill yang m(1nh trong nhungnam tr1ioc doll9 Them vao do ngan hangtrung uong cua nhiilu nUOc tren the gioidac bi~t la ngan himg trung liong chau Aucung da giam so luqng yang dJ tru ban ratren thi trudnglO)

MaC dli cllu vil vang cho san xufit congnghi~p viin chiem ty tr9ng IOnhon ca trongellu vil yang (912 trong thdi ky 19901999) nhung k~ tit khi bi phi tiiln t~ hallvao nam 1971 cling voi sJ svp d6 cua h~th5ng Bretton Woods vang v~n luon duqccoi Ill phuong ti~n tich tru gill tri trongnhung diilu ki~n bfit 6n dinh (chien tranhlm phat phi ma khung hoang kinh te )vasJ bien ding cua gii yang chi co nhunganh hlidng khOng dang k~ toi tinh hinh taichfnh - tiiln t~ tren the gioi

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Nhiing vande KINH TE THE GICli 501(93) 2004 --------------- ~

Trang nam 2003 ngtiqc livoi dV doancua tfit ca cac nha kinh te gia yang da biendingvoi xu huang chung Illtang gillmnhva nhiilu Illn dt tOi nhung muc gillky Ivctrong yang 10 nam trd Ii day Neu nhu vaodllu nam 2003 gill yang tren thi trudngLondon va NewYork moi chi d muc khoang340 USDOunce thi vao nhung thang cu5inam gillyang da nhiilu Illn vuqt qua muc400 USDOunce Tinh trung binh nam2003 yang da tang gilltOi 15 so voi nam2002 vuqt qua muc tang cua nhiilu mathang chien lu~c khac nhu dllu tho ching

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Trong b5i canh kinh teva chinh trt thegioi hi~n nay rflt kh6 dJ bao chinh xac vegia yang Di~n bien clla gia yang trongtuong lai phl thutc vao rflt nhieu nhan totir Chll quan (cach xlt Iy clla cac ngan hangtrung uong d5i voi yang dJ tru ) cho tOikhach quan (tinh hinh kinh teva chinh trithegioi) trong khi d6 nhieu trong sonhilngnhan to nay la kh6 c6 th~ dJ doan dugc mttcach chinh xac Di~n bien clla gia yangtrong nam 2003 la mtt minh chung

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Nguyen Hong 5dn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

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NgucJcIllitrong nam 2003 mtt so nganhang trung udng khac nhu ngan hangtrung 1dng Canada dii thJc hi~n chinhsach tien t~ thiit ch(it nhampm chong Ii apIc cua Illmphat TUdng tv nhu viy nganhang trung uong Anh cung dii nang liii suatvao thang 112003 sau khi thuc hien 2 Ifinciit giam mllnh vao nhung thimg diiu namva giu nam

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1 The Economist 11102003

2 The Economist 1392003

3 Ddu tllch(mg khoan 772003

4 The Economist 11102003 692003

dang tiep tve tiem tin nhieu nguy co bat 5ndoi hoi cac nlioc phm tiep tJlCcai t5 co cauthttc hi~n nhung chinh sach ty gia hoi doailinh hOltlthon va tang clidng hqp tac trongvifc phoi hcJpcac chinh sach kinh te vi mod~ co th~ phan ung lltlimQt cach tot nhatdOivoi nhung bien dQngbat ngd co th~ xayra

va kip thdi Nhung chinh sach nay cung voichinh sach tai chinh md rilng d cac mtoccong nghi~p phat tri~n dii co nhUng tacdQng tich cttc toi thi trlidng chung khoan(nhli dii trinh bay d tren) va kich thich cacnen kinh te tang trlidng Sttphvc hili ch~mclla nen kinh te d cac nlioc dIng nghi~pphat tri~n cung voi nhung nguy co giamphiit d mQt s6 nlioc dii khien cho nhieu dttbao cho dlng liii suat d phln IOn cac nliocdIng nghi~p phat tri~n se dlicJcgiu nguyeneho toi cu6i nam 2004 (xem bang 2)

Nhli v~y nhung dillcdi~m n6i b~t clla taichinh-tien t~ the gioi nam 2003 cho thaymillc du phln Ion cac nlioc dii va dang conhUng dieuchinhchinh sach kinh tevi mophu hcJpnhlingtrong Hnh vJc nay v~n

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE Glell 561(93) 2004

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MIJe3 12 10

thang thang nam 10 30tieu

2nam 5namIibor libor swap nam nam

Mv 281103 100 117 154 457 203 330 426 5082902104 100 115 155 508 205 350 460 550310504 100 120 160 522 220 365 470 560301104 150 165 185 589 300 430 525 595

Nhlit Ban 281103 000 006 009 134 012 056 1302902104 000 010 010 136 010 055 130310504 000 010 010 137 010 055 130301104 000 010 010 188 020 078 175

EU 281103 200 216 246 454 280 375 446 5052902104 200 215 245 478 280 375 450 530310504 200 215 245 499 285 385 460 540301104 225 235 260 525 300 400 480 550

Anh 281103 375 398 458 524 459 495 506 4832902104 400 420 465 558 470 507 518 505310504 425 440 480 574 485 514 523 530301104 450 460 490 590 495 524 533 540

Canada 2811103 275 280 290 322 413 484 5312902104 275 280 290 330 430 510 570310504 275 285 305 330 440 520 580301104 325 335 350 370 490 575 615

Thuv poundIiim 281103 275 289 318 525 323 434 5002902104 275 285 310 535 320 436 505310504 275 290 320 550 330 443 510301104 300 315 340 575 350 463 530

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18 No end Ln sight The Economist22112003

12 Snow business The Economist692003

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3 IMF InternationalStatistics 102003

4 WB Global Development Finance2003

10 Re-orientationEconomist 1272003

11 Looking up The Economist692003

8 Grapping with the strong EuroThe Economist 762003

9 Fear of floating The Economist1272003

5 BIS 73Anual Report

6 Monetary Policy Report to theCongress (Report submitted to the Congresson July 15 2003 pursuant to section 2B ofthe Federal Reserve Act) Federal ReserveBulletin August 2003

7 Keep it weak The Economist762003

13 Economics focus - Fix or float TheEconomist 1392003

14 Dont get your hopes down yet TheEconomist 1392003

15 A-a-and down The Economist2792003

16 Rising The Economist 11102003

17 Theyre back The Economist11102003

19 Stuck in the Middle TheEconomist 1112003

20 Thien Long Dong USD co khrlnang con girlm gici DAu tl1 Chung khoanNgay 552003

5 Ddu tuchung khocin 772003 ChUngkhoan Vi~t Nam 82003

6 The Economist 1392003

7 The Economist 692003

8 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

9 The Economist 762003

10 Ddu tuchUng khocin 13102003

11 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

12 The Economist 27112003

13 IMF International FinancialStatistics 102003

14 The Economist 1112003

15 The Economist 1392003

16 The Economist 1262003

17 Trong nam 2003 Nga dii tuyen biltang tj trltmgvang trong dl trft ngorihilichfnh thuc clla minh

18 Thdi ky 1996-1999 gia vang giam(mua he nam 1999 dlilt muc 250USDounce muc thap nhat trong vang 20nam) do 2 nguyen nhan Dola My tang giad6ng thdi vdi sl gia tang clla gia chungkhoan va ngan hang trung l1dng cac nl1dcban vang dl trft

19 Theo hi~p djnh Washington nganhang trung l1dng clla 15 nl1dc cong nghi~pph at triEln hliln che so 1l1clngvang ban ra toida m6i nam la 400 tan (cac ngan hang nayhi~n dang nlm gift tdi 44 1l1clngvang dltrft the gidi)

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1 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

2 IMF Financial Stability Report92003

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36 Minh Tri NrJi long dau tIt ra benngOal D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay17112003

37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

trong ngampn hgn Diiu tli Chung khomNgay 17112003

41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

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29 Hang Due Trung Quoe dltClisue eptang gia NDT ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 1092003

30 Hang Due Cae nltrJeG7 keu gQi tMniJi ty gia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[t NamNgay 2992003

31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

33 Nguyen The Nghii[pDanh ch(intrltrJccd vt tai chinh ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~tNam Ngay 22102003

34 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN My thamhllt ngan sach chlta titng co Ngay23102003

Nhiing VBn de KINH TETHE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------- R

21 Chi DUng Diin bien mgt sci thitrltiJng chung khoan Chau A trong thang5 Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 62003

22 Thien Long Co nen tich triL d6ngdola D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay166200323 Mai Hlidng uin at cd USD D~u

tli Chung khoan Ngay 1662003

24 Phlidng Anh Chau A se phdi xemxct 19i ty gia D~u t1(Chung khoan Ngay236200325 Chi Dung Nhitng dau hi~u 19e

quan mm Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang7200326 Tung Phlidng Diln bien trai chdu

tren thi trltiJng My Bao D~u tli Chungkhoan Ngay 772003

27 Chi Dung Dau hi~u 19cquan titcac thi trltiJng Au-My Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 82003

28 Chi Dung Dau hieu phuc h6i trencae thi trltfmg khu vyenc ehau A Thang92003

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Nguyen Hong San-Phlm Anh Tuan

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Tuy nhien xet tren khia etnh thljetevi~e tien hanh ap dmg ehe dQ ty gia h6idoai linh hott hdn kho co th~ dultetienhanh theo li~u phap s6e (cae quan ehueQuy Tien t~ Qu6e te cling d6ng y voi quandi~m nay) Trong trudng hltpTrung Qu6eehfmg htnvoi mQth~ thong ngan hang yeukem vi~e than6i d6ng Nhan dan t~ sekhien eho gia tri ella d6ng tien nay bat 6ndinh voi nhilng tae dQng tieu eljekh6ng chid6i voi nen kinh te ella nuoe nay Hdn thenua ehinh vi~e cae nuoe ehau A can thi~pvao thi trudng ngolttihoi sau do dung dljtrungotit~ mua trai phieu ehinh phll My (160ty USD trong nita dftu nam 2003 ehll yeula Trung Qu6e va Nhijt Ban) ltidang giupeho nuoe nay dieu ehinh sljmat can biingd6i ngotitrong ngampn htn cling nhu duy tridultellttrnphat thap kieh thich dulteeftu nQidia va lam soi dQng thi trudng bat dQngsan

Tinh nhtycam va phue tlttPella ty gia diikhien eho mQt so nuoe nhu Trung Quoeehpoundng htn thljehi~n rnQtloat cae giai phapnhiim giam bot sue ep tang gia d6i voi d6ngtien ella minh nhu eho phep cae eong ty giultinhieu ngolttit~ hdn (hi~n tltticae e6ng tyco ngu6n thu ngoltti t~ phai ban toan bQ songoti t~ thu dulteeho ngan hang trungudng) noi long dieu ki~n mua ngolttit~ ehophep cae eong ty rnua trai phieu ngoti t~noi long quy dinh dftu tu ra mtoe ngoaigiam bOt cae bi~n phap khuyen khieh xuatkhflu htn ehe ty 1$ v6n eua cae ngEmhangnuoe ngoai dftu tu vao thi trudng chungkhoan Ngoai ra Trung Qu6e cling dangtinh den vi~e noi long bien dQdao dQngellaty gift

Nhu vijy vl~e ph~ thuQe qua rnue vaoDola My dii khien eho cae nuoe ehau-A riltde bi t6n thudng khOng chi khi d6ng tien

11-------------- NhiJng van de KINH TE THE GIOI So 1(93) 2004

Nguy~n Hong 5e1n-Ph~mAnh Tuan Nhling d~e di~m eelban eila tai ehinh

Nga ) xung dqt Trung Dong tra nen kh5cli~t hdn dich b~nh SARS a chau A Xettren khfa cnh kinh te do Ill sJ giam gillcua Dola My lai suat the gioi thap a mucky Ivc cling voi nhung mat can biing co ban(tham hvt tai khoan vang lai IOn a Mynguy cd giam phat nq chfnh phu cua dicnuac d muc cao tham hVt ngan sach giatang ) va sv phvc h6i cham chp cua nilnkinh te toan cllu

Thu hai trong khi diu vil yang tangmnh thi ngu6n cung l(1i giam slit do sanluqng yang khai thac giam v5n Illket quacua sJ giam gill yang m(1nh trong nhungnam tr1ioc doll9 Them vao do ngan hangtrung uong cua nhiilu nUOc tren the gioidac bi~t la ngan himg trung liong chau Aucung da giam so luqng yang dJ tru ban ratren thi trudnglO)

MaC dli cllu vil vang cho san xufit congnghi~p viin chiem ty tr9ng IOnhon ca trongellu vil yang (912 trong thdi ky 19901999) nhung k~ tit khi bi phi tiiln t~ hallvao nam 1971 cling voi sJ svp d6 cua h~th5ng Bretton Woods vang v~n luon duqccoi Ill phuong ti~n tich tru gill tri trongnhung diilu ki~n bfit 6n dinh (chien tranhlm phat phi ma khung hoang kinh te )vasJ bien ding cua gii yang chi co nhunganh hlidng khOng dang k~ toi tinh hinh taichfnh - tiiln t~ tren the gioi

Trong nhung nam glln day gia yangphlln nhiilu phv thuqc vao cllu vil no cungvil yang chi dong vai tra thV ding Bdi vingoai ngu6n cung do khai thac yang tit ma(chiem ty tr9ng Ion nhat) vimg duqc chietxufit tit cac kim loi khic yang che tac l(1itit yang vvn yang tu nhan tich tru tittruoc thi yang dJ tru chfnh thuc cua cacngan hang trung uong cac nuoc tren thegioi hi~n rat Ion (320923 tan trong do Mynlim giu 81354 tan hay 2535 khu vJcd6ng EurC nlim giu 123057 tfin hay

Nhiing vande KINH TE THE GICli 501(93) 2004 --------------- ~

Trang nam 2003 ngtiqc livoi dV doancua tfit ca cac nha kinh te gia yang da biendingvoi xu huang chung Illtang gillmnhva nhiilu Illn dt tOi nhung muc gillky Ivctrong yang 10 nam trd Ii day Neu nhu vaodllu nam 2003 gill yang tren thi trudngLondon va NewYork moi chi d muc khoang340 USDOunce thi vao nhung thang cu5inam gillyang da nhiilu Illn vuqt qua muc400 USDOunce Tinh trung binh nam2003 yang da tang gilltOi 15 so voi nam2002 vuqt qua muc tang cua nhiilu mathang chien lu~c khac nhu dllu tho ching

hnThea cac chuyen gia kinh te co mqt lot

cac nguyen nhan khien yang tang gillmnh trong nam 2003

Thu nhat cllu vil yang tang mnh (ca titphia tu nhan liin nha nuocllS) do tac dingcua nhung bfit 6n chinh tri va kinh te dnhiilu ndi tren the gioi Xet tren khia qnhchfnh tri do Illchien tranh Irlic va nguy cosa Illy cua My sJ Ian rqng cua chu nghiakhung b5 (a 1m Di Th6 Nhi Ky Lien Bang

IV GIA VANG TANG M~NH

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3834) Doc tinh neu so htgng vfmg naydugc bim di thi gia yang chi con 70USDOunce Tuy v(iy neu nhin Ii lich sltclla gia yang thi c6 th~ thfly gia yang hi~nti con dang thflp hon rflt nhieu so voi giayang trong nhung nam 1980 va 1990 (mi)cdil b5i canh kinh tethe gioi hi~n nay khacxa voi thdi diEimd6) D5ng thdi hi~n ti duve yang v1n con rflt IOn a nhieu nuoc nhuAn DtDong A va Trung Dong yang khongchi la d6 trang suc phuong ti~n tich tru giatri rna can la thuoc do gia tri va phuongti~n thanh toano Do v(iyrna cac dJ bao vedi~n bienclla gia yang trong tuong lai g1lnla rflt khac nhau Theo dt bao clla nhieuchuyen gia va Hti d5ng Vang the gioi(WGC) trong nam 2004 gia yang se tieptlC tang tren muc 400 USD va dao dtngtrong khoang 400-500 USDOunce Trongkhi d6 nhieu dJ bao khac Ii cho ding giayang trong nam 2004 se chi dao dtng trongphllmvi 310-400 USDOunce

Trong b5i canh kinh teva chinh trt thegioi hi~n nay rflt kh6 dJ bao chinh xac vegia yang Di~n bien clla gia yang trongtuong lai phl thutc vao rflt nhieu nhan totir Chll quan (cach xlt Iy clla cac ngan hangtrung uong d5i voi yang dJ tru ) cho tOikhach quan (tinh hinh kinh teva chinh trithegioi) trong khi d6 nhieu trong sonhilngnhan to nay la kh6 c6 th~ dJ doan dugc mttcach chinh xac Di~n bien clla gia yangtrong nam 2003 la mtt minh chung

V PHAN LON cAc NlJOC CONG NGHI~PPHAT TRIEN T1EP Tl)C THVC HI~N CHiNHSACH NO LONG TII~NT~

Trong nam 2003 cac nuoc cong nghi~pphat tri~n nhu My Lien minh chau AuThuy Di~n Thuy Sy Nauy va Niu Dilantiep tlC thJc hi~n chinh sach tien ~ noilong voi vi~c ciit giam liii suflt tOi muc thflpky llc trong vong 45 nam k~ til nam 1958

Nguyen Hong 5dn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

(xem Bang 2) Duy tri chinh sach liii sufltzero Ngan hang trung uong Nhit Ban(BOJ) cung tiep tlC md rtng hon nua cungtien bampng cach ~oi long quy dinh d5i voi taikhoan hi~n hanh clla cnc t6 chuc tai chinhtlli BOJ cung nhu slt dll1g mtt so bi~nphap kich thich kinh te kbac Liii sufltdanh nghia thflp dii khien cho liii suat thJctetrung binh clla cac m(oc G7 lfin dfiu tientrong ljch slt k~ tir nam 1970 mang gin triam

T5c dttang trudng kinh tethflp d(ic bi~tla iJ My Lien minh chilu Au va Nhit Bantrong quy 112003 bat 6n dinh dia - chinh trio nhieu noi tren the gioi d(ic bi~t la dTrung Dong va Inic gin diiu tang caonhung tac dtng tieu cc cua s( 116va bongbOng c6 phieu tir niim 2000 khu vJc congngh~ cao tiep tlC tri tr~ nhung tac dtngtieu cJc clla b~rih dich SARS 0 chilu A lanhung nguyen nhan khien cho ngan hangtrung uong nhieu nuoc cong nghi~p phattri~n tiep tJlCthJc hi~n chinh sach tien t~noi long nhampm kich thich sJ phlc hoi cllathi trudng chung khoan chong Illinguy cogiam phat va thuc diiy nen kinh te tangtruong Doi voi khu vJc d5ng Euro vi~cgiam liii suat can giup trung hoa nhung tacdtng tieu cc doi voi xuat khiiu do sv lengia clla Euro so voi Dola My gay nen

NgucJcIllitrong nam 2003 mtt so nganhang trung udng khac nhu ngan hangtrung 1dng Canada dii thJc hi~n chinhsach tien t~ thiit ch(it nhampm chong Ii apIc cua Illmphat TUdng tv nhu viy nganhang trung uong Anh cung dii nang liii suatvao thang 112003 sau khi thuc hien 2 Ifinciit giam mllnh vao nhung thimg diiu namva giu nam

Danh gia dtng thai cua chinh sach tient~ d cac nuoc cong nghi~p phat tri~n trongnam 2003 cac chuyen gia kinh tedeu chorampng chinh sach tien t~ noi long lit phil hcJp

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Ngu6n Credit Lyonnais Group Acceleration No 138 December 2003

Bang 2 DIjbiw xu htioog lill suat ella milt s6 mine eong nghi~p phat trin nam 2004

Nhiing di[ie di~m cd ban ella tii ehinh

Chu thich

1 The Economist 11102003

2 The Economist 1392003

3 Ddu tllch(mg khoan 772003

4 The Economist 11102003 692003

dang tiep tve tiem tin nhieu nguy co bat 5ndoi hoi cac nlioc phm tiep tJlCcai t5 co cauthttc hi~n nhung chinh sach ty gia hoi doailinh hOltlthon va tang clidng hqp tac trongvifc phoi hcJpcac chinh sach kinh te vi mod~ co th~ phan ung lltlimQt cach tot nhatdOivoi nhung bien dQngbat ngd co th~ xayra

va kip thdi Nhung chinh sach nay cung voichinh sach tai chinh md rilng d cac mtoccong nghi~p phat tri~n dii co nhUng tacdQng tich cttc toi thi trlidng chung khoan(nhli dii trinh bay d tren) va kich thich cacnen kinh te tang trlidng Sttphvc hili ch~mclla nen kinh te d cac nlioc dIng nghi~pphat tri~n cung voi nhung nguy co giamphiit d mQt s6 nlioc dii khien cho nhieu dttbao cho dlng liii suat d phln IOn cac nliocdIng nghi~p phat tri~n se dlicJcgiu nguyeneho toi cu6i nam 2004 (xem bang 2)

Nhli v~y nhung dillcdi~m n6i b~t clla taichinh-tien t~ the gioi nam 2003 cho thaymillc du phln Ion cac nlioc dii va dang conhUng dieuchinhchinh sach kinh tevi mophu hcJpnhlingtrong Hnh vJc nay v~n

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE Glell 561(93) 2004

IUii suat I Ldi tac trili phieu chinh oh

MIJe3 12 10

thang thang nam 10 30tieu

2nam 5namIibor libor swap nam nam

Mv 281103 100 117 154 457 203 330 426 5082902104 100 115 155 508 205 350 460 550310504 100 120 160 522 220 365 470 560301104 150 165 185 589 300 430 525 595

Nhlit Ban 281103 000 006 009 134 012 056 1302902104 000 010 010 136 010 055 130310504 000 010 010 137 010 055 130301104 000 010 010 188 020 078 175

EU 281103 200 216 246 454 280 375 446 5052902104 200 215 245 478 280 375 450 530310504 200 215 245 499 285 385 460 540301104 225 235 260 525 300 400 480 550

Anh 281103 375 398 458 524 459 495 506 4832902104 400 420 465 558 470 507 518 505310504 425 440 480 574 485 514 523 530301104 450 460 490 590 495 524 533 540

Canada 2811103 275 280 290 322 413 484 5312902104 275 280 290 330 430 510 570310504 275 285 305 330 440 520 580301104 325 335 350 370 490 575 615

Thuv poundIiim 281103 275 289 318 525 323 434 5002902104 275 285 310 535 320 436 505310504 275 290 320 550 330 443 510301104 300 315 340 575 350 463 530

Nguy~n Hong sdn-Philm Anh Tuan

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18 No end Ln sight The Economist22112003

12 Snow business The Economist692003

The

Financial

needed

3 IMF InternationalStatistics 102003

4 WB Global Development Finance2003

10 Re-orientationEconomist 1272003

11 Looking up The Economist692003

8 Grapping with the strong EuroThe Economist 762003

9 Fear of floating The Economist1272003

5 BIS 73Anual Report

6 Monetary Policy Report to theCongress (Report submitted to the Congresson July 15 2003 pursuant to section 2B ofthe Federal Reserve Act) Federal ReserveBulletin August 2003

7 Keep it weak The Economist762003

13 Economics focus - Fix or float TheEconomist 1392003

14 Dont get your hopes down yet TheEconomist 1392003

15 A-a-and down The Economist2792003

16 Rising The Economist 11102003

17 Theyre back The Economist11102003

19 Stuck in the Middle TheEconomist 1112003

20 Thien Long Dong USD co khrlnang con girlm gici DAu tl1 Chung khoanNgay 552003

5 Ddu tuchung khocin 772003 ChUngkhoan Vi~t Nam 82003

6 The Economist 1392003

7 The Economist 692003

8 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

9 The Economist 762003

10 Ddu tuchUng khocin 13102003

11 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

12 The Economist 27112003

13 IMF International FinancialStatistics 102003

14 The Economist 1112003

15 The Economist 1392003

16 The Economist 1262003

17 Trong nam 2003 Nga dii tuyen biltang tj trltmgvang trong dl trft ngorihilichfnh thuc clla minh

18 Thdi ky 1996-1999 gia vang giam(mua he nam 1999 dlilt muc 250USDounce muc thap nhat trong vang 20nam) do 2 nguyen nhan Dola My tang giad6ng thdi vdi sl gia tang clla gia chungkhoan va ngan hang trung l1dng cac nl1dcban vang dl trft

19 Theo hi~p djnh Washington nganhang trung l1dng clla 15 nl1dc cong nghi~pph at triEln hliln che so 1l1clngvang ban ra toida m6i nam la 400 tan (cac ngan hang nayhi~n dang nlm gift tdi 44 1l1clngvang dltrft the gidi)

Nhiing d~c diiim Cd blm cua tili chin h

TAl LIJ)U TRAM KHAO

1 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

2 IMF Financial Stability Report92003

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36 Minh Tri NrJi long dau tIt ra benngOal D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay17112003

37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

trong ngampn hgn Diiu tli Chung khomNgay 17112003

41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

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29 Hang Due Trung Quoe dltClisue eptang gia NDT ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 1092003

30 Hang Due Cae nltrJeG7 keu gQi tMniJi ty gia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[t NamNgay 2992003

31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

33 Nguyen The Nghii[pDanh ch(intrltrJccd vt tai chinh ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~tNam Ngay 22102003

34 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN My thamhllt ngan sach chlta titng co Ngay23102003

Nhiing VBn de KINH TETHE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------- R

21 Chi DUng Diin bien mgt sci thitrltiJng chung khoan Chau A trong thang5 Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 62003

22 Thien Long Co nen tich triL d6ngdola D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay166200323 Mai Hlidng uin at cd USD D~u

tli Chung khoan Ngay 1662003

24 Phlidng Anh Chau A se phdi xemxct 19i ty gia D~u t1(Chung khoan Ngay236200325 Chi Dung Nhitng dau hi~u 19e

quan mm Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang7200326 Tung Phlidng Diln bien trai chdu

tren thi trltiJng My Bao D~u tli Chungkhoan Ngay 772003

27 Chi Dung Dau hi~u 19cquan titcac thi trltiJng Au-My Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 82003

28 Chi Dung Dau hieu phuc h6i trencae thi trltfmg khu vyenc ehau A Thang92003

Nguylin Hong Sdn-PhltlmAnh Tuan

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MaC dli cllu vil vang cho san xufit congnghi~p viin chiem ty tr9ng IOnhon ca trongellu vil yang (912 trong thdi ky 19901999) nhung k~ tit khi bi phi tiiln t~ hallvao nam 1971 cling voi sJ svp d6 cua h~th5ng Bretton Woods vang v~n luon duqccoi Ill phuong ti~n tich tru gill tri trongnhung diilu ki~n bfit 6n dinh (chien tranhlm phat phi ma khung hoang kinh te )vasJ bien ding cua gii yang chi co nhunganh hlidng khOng dang k~ toi tinh hinh taichfnh - tiiln t~ tren the gioi

Trong nhung nam glln day gia yangphlln nhiilu phv thuqc vao cllu vil no cungvil yang chi dong vai tra thV ding Bdi vingoai ngu6n cung do khai thac yang tit ma(chiem ty tr9ng Ion nhat) vimg duqc chietxufit tit cac kim loi khic yang che tac l(1itit yang vvn yang tu nhan tich tru tittruoc thi yang dJ tru chfnh thuc cua cacngan hang trung uong cac nuoc tren thegioi hi~n rat Ion (320923 tan trong do Mynlim giu 81354 tan hay 2535 khu vJcd6ng EurC nlim giu 123057 tfin hay

Nhiing vande KINH TE THE GICli 501(93) 2004 --------------- ~

Trang nam 2003 ngtiqc livoi dV doancua tfit ca cac nha kinh te gia yang da biendingvoi xu huang chung Illtang gillmnhva nhiilu Illn dt tOi nhung muc gillky Ivctrong yang 10 nam trd Ii day Neu nhu vaodllu nam 2003 gill yang tren thi trudngLondon va NewYork moi chi d muc khoang340 USDOunce thi vao nhung thang cu5inam gillyang da nhiilu Illn vuqt qua muc400 USDOunce Tinh trung binh nam2003 yang da tang gilltOi 15 so voi nam2002 vuqt qua muc tang cua nhiilu mathang chien lu~c khac nhu dllu tho ching

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3834) Doc tinh neu so htgng vfmg naydugc bim di thi gia yang chi con 70USDOunce Tuy v(iy neu nhin Ii lich sltclla gia yang thi c6 th~ thfly gia yang hi~nti con dang thflp hon rflt nhieu so voi giayang trong nhung nam 1980 va 1990 (mi)cdil b5i canh kinh tethe gioi hi~n nay khacxa voi thdi diEimd6) D5ng thdi hi~n ti duve yang v1n con rflt IOn a nhieu nuoc nhuAn DtDong A va Trung Dong yang khongchi la d6 trang suc phuong ti~n tich tru giatri rna can la thuoc do gia tri va phuongti~n thanh toano Do v(iyrna cac dJ bao vedi~n bienclla gia yang trong tuong lai g1lnla rflt khac nhau Theo dt bao clla nhieuchuyen gia va Hti d5ng Vang the gioi(WGC) trong nam 2004 gia yang se tieptlC tang tren muc 400 USD va dao dtngtrong khoang 400-500 USDOunce Trongkhi d6 nhieu dJ bao khac Ii cho ding giayang trong nam 2004 se chi dao dtng trongphllmvi 310-400 USDOunce

Trong b5i canh kinh teva chinh trt thegioi hi~n nay rflt kh6 dJ bao chinh xac vegia yang Di~n bien clla gia yang trongtuong lai phl thutc vao rflt nhieu nhan totir Chll quan (cach xlt Iy clla cac ngan hangtrung uong d5i voi yang dJ tru ) cho tOikhach quan (tinh hinh kinh teva chinh trithegioi) trong khi d6 nhieu trong sonhilngnhan to nay la kh6 c6 th~ dJ doan dugc mttcach chinh xac Di~n bien clla gia yangtrong nam 2003 la mtt minh chung

V PHAN LON cAc NlJOC CONG NGHI~PPHAT TRIEN T1EP Tl)C THVC HI~N CHiNHSACH NO LONG TII~NT~

Trong nam 2003 cac nuoc cong nghi~pphat tri~n nhu My Lien minh chau AuThuy Di~n Thuy Sy Nauy va Niu Dilantiep tlC thJc hi~n chinh sach tien ~ noilong voi vi~c ciit giam liii suflt tOi muc thflpky llc trong vong 45 nam k~ til nam 1958

Nguyen Hong 5dn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

(xem Bang 2) Duy tri chinh sach liii sufltzero Ngan hang trung uong Nhit Ban(BOJ) cung tiep tlC md rtng hon nua cungtien bampng cach ~oi long quy dinh d5i voi taikhoan hi~n hanh clla cnc t6 chuc tai chinhtlli BOJ cung nhu slt dll1g mtt so bi~nphap kich thich kinh te kbac Liii sufltdanh nghia thflp dii khien cho liii suat thJctetrung binh clla cac m(oc G7 lfin dfiu tientrong ljch slt k~ tir nam 1970 mang gin triam

T5c dttang trudng kinh tethflp d(ic bi~tla iJ My Lien minh chilu Au va Nhit Bantrong quy 112003 bat 6n dinh dia - chinh trio nhieu noi tren the gioi d(ic bi~t la dTrung Dong va Inic gin diiu tang caonhung tac dtng tieu cc cua s( 116va bongbOng c6 phieu tir niim 2000 khu vJc congngh~ cao tiep tlC tri tr~ nhung tac dtngtieu cJc clla b~rih dich SARS 0 chilu A lanhung nguyen nhan khien cho ngan hangtrung uong nhieu nuoc cong nghi~p phattri~n tiep tJlCthJc hi~n chinh sach tien t~noi long nhampm kich thich sJ phlc hoi cllathi trudng chung khoan chong Illinguy cogiam phat va thuc diiy nen kinh te tangtruong Doi voi khu vJc d5ng Euro vi~cgiam liii suat can giup trung hoa nhung tacdtng tieu cc doi voi xuat khiiu do sv lengia clla Euro so voi Dola My gay nen

NgucJcIllitrong nam 2003 mtt so nganhang trung udng khac nhu ngan hangtrung 1dng Canada dii thJc hi~n chinhsach tien t~ thiit ch(it nhampm chong Ii apIc cua Illmphat TUdng tv nhu viy nganhang trung uong Anh cung dii nang liii suatvao thang 112003 sau khi thuc hien 2 Ifinciit giam mllnh vao nhung thimg diiu namva giu nam

Danh gia dtng thai cua chinh sach tient~ d cac nuoc cong nghi~p phat tri~n trongnam 2003 cac chuyen gia kinh tedeu chorampng chinh sach tien t~ noi long lit phil hcJp

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Chu thich

1 The Economist 11102003

2 The Economist 1392003

3 Ddu tllch(mg khoan 772003

4 The Economist 11102003 692003

dang tiep tve tiem tin nhieu nguy co bat 5ndoi hoi cac nlioc phm tiep tJlCcai t5 co cauthttc hi~n nhung chinh sach ty gia hoi doailinh hOltlthon va tang clidng hqp tac trongvifc phoi hcJpcac chinh sach kinh te vi mod~ co th~ phan ung lltlimQt cach tot nhatdOivoi nhung bien dQngbat ngd co th~ xayra

va kip thdi Nhung chinh sach nay cung voichinh sach tai chinh md rilng d cac mtoccong nghi~p phat tri~n dii co nhUng tacdQng tich cttc toi thi trlidng chung khoan(nhli dii trinh bay d tren) va kich thich cacnen kinh te tang trlidng Sttphvc hili ch~mclla nen kinh te d cac nlioc dIng nghi~pphat tri~n cung voi nhung nguy co giamphiit d mQt s6 nlioc dii khien cho nhieu dttbao cho dlng liii suat d phln IOn cac nliocdIng nghi~p phat tri~n se dlicJcgiu nguyeneho toi cu6i nam 2004 (xem bang 2)

Nhli v~y nhung dillcdi~m n6i b~t clla taichinh-tien t~ the gioi nam 2003 cho thaymillc du phln Ion cac nlioc dii va dang conhUng dieuchinhchinh sach kinh tevi mophu hcJpnhlingtrong Hnh vJc nay v~n

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE Glell 561(93) 2004

IUii suat I Ldi tac trili phieu chinh oh

MIJe3 12 10

thang thang nam 10 30tieu

2nam 5namIibor libor swap nam nam

Mv 281103 100 117 154 457 203 330 426 5082902104 100 115 155 508 205 350 460 550310504 100 120 160 522 220 365 470 560301104 150 165 185 589 300 430 525 595

Nhlit Ban 281103 000 006 009 134 012 056 1302902104 000 010 010 136 010 055 130310504 000 010 010 137 010 055 130301104 000 010 010 188 020 078 175

EU 281103 200 216 246 454 280 375 446 5052902104 200 215 245 478 280 375 450 530310504 200 215 245 499 285 385 460 540301104 225 235 260 525 300 400 480 550

Anh 281103 375 398 458 524 459 495 506 4832902104 400 420 465 558 470 507 518 505310504 425 440 480 574 485 514 523 530301104 450 460 490 590 495 524 533 540

Canada 2811103 275 280 290 322 413 484 5312902104 275 280 290 330 430 510 570310504 275 285 305 330 440 520 580301104 325 335 350 370 490 575 615

Thuv poundIiim 281103 275 289 318 525 323 434 5002902104 275 285 310 535 320 436 505310504 275 290 320 550 330 443 510301104 300 315 340 575 350 463 530

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18 No end Ln sight The Economist22112003

12 Snow business The Economist692003

The

Financial

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3 IMF InternationalStatistics 102003

4 WB Global Development Finance2003

10 Re-orientationEconomist 1272003

11 Looking up The Economist692003

8 Grapping with the strong EuroThe Economist 762003

9 Fear of floating The Economist1272003

5 BIS 73Anual Report

6 Monetary Policy Report to theCongress (Report submitted to the Congresson July 15 2003 pursuant to section 2B ofthe Federal Reserve Act) Federal ReserveBulletin August 2003

7 Keep it weak The Economist762003

13 Economics focus - Fix or float TheEconomist 1392003

14 Dont get your hopes down yet TheEconomist 1392003

15 A-a-and down The Economist2792003

16 Rising The Economist 11102003

17 Theyre back The Economist11102003

19 Stuck in the Middle TheEconomist 1112003

20 Thien Long Dong USD co khrlnang con girlm gici DAu tl1 Chung khoanNgay 552003

5 Ddu tuchung khocin 772003 ChUngkhoan Vi~t Nam 82003

6 The Economist 1392003

7 The Economist 692003

8 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

9 The Economist 762003

10 Ddu tuchUng khocin 13102003

11 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

12 The Economist 27112003

13 IMF International FinancialStatistics 102003

14 The Economist 1112003

15 The Economist 1392003

16 The Economist 1262003

17 Trong nam 2003 Nga dii tuyen biltang tj trltmgvang trong dl trft ngorihilichfnh thuc clla minh

18 Thdi ky 1996-1999 gia vang giam(mua he nam 1999 dlilt muc 250USDounce muc thap nhat trong vang 20nam) do 2 nguyen nhan Dola My tang giad6ng thdi vdi sl gia tang clla gia chungkhoan va ngan hang trung l1dng cac nl1dcban vang dl trft

19 Theo hi~p djnh Washington nganhang trung l1dng clla 15 nl1dc cong nghi~pph at triEln hliln che so 1l1clngvang ban ra toida m6i nam la 400 tan (cac ngan hang nayhi~n dang nlm gift tdi 44 1l1clngvang dltrft the gidi)

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TAl LIJ)U TRAM KHAO

1 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

2 IMF Financial Stability Report92003

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36 Minh Tri NrJi long dau tIt ra benngOal D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay17112003

37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

trong ngampn hgn Diiu tli Chung khomNgay 17112003

41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

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29 Hang Due Trung Quoe dltClisue eptang gia NDT ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 1092003

30 Hang Due Cae nltrJeG7 keu gQi tMniJi ty gia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[t NamNgay 2992003

31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

33 Nguyen The Nghii[pDanh ch(intrltrJccd vt tai chinh ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~tNam Ngay 22102003

34 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN My thamhllt ngan sach chlta titng co Ngay23102003

Nhiing VBn de KINH TETHE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------- R

21 Chi DUng Diin bien mgt sci thitrltiJng chung khoan Chau A trong thang5 Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 62003

22 Thien Long Co nen tich triL d6ngdola D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay166200323 Mai Hlidng uin at cd USD D~u

tli Chung khoan Ngay 1662003

24 Phlidng Anh Chau A se phdi xemxct 19i ty gia D~u t1(Chung khoan Ngay236200325 Chi Dung Nhitng dau hi~u 19e

quan mm Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang7200326 Tung Phlidng Diln bien trai chdu

tren thi trltiJng My Bao D~u tli Chungkhoan Ngay 772003

27 Chi Dung Dau hi~u 19cquan titcac thi trltiJng Au-My Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 82003

28 Chi Dung Dau hieu phuc h6i trencae thi trltfmg khu vyenc ehau A Thang92003

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3834) Doc tinh neu so htgng vfmg naydugc bim di thi gia yang chi con 70USDOunce Tuy v(iy neu nhin Ii lich sltclla gia yang thi c6 th~ thfly gia yang hi~nti con dang thflp hon rflt nhieu so voi giayang trong nhung nam 1980 va 1990 (mi)cdil b5i canh kinh tethe gioi hi~n nay khacxa voi thdi diEimd6) D5ng thdi hi~n ti duve yang v1n con rflt IOn a nhieu nuoc nhuAn DtDong A va Trung Dong yang khongchi la d6 trang suc phuong ti~n tich tru giatri rna can la thuoc do gia tri va phuongti~n thanh toano Do v(iyrna cac dJ bao vedi~n bienclla gia yang trong tuong lai g1lnla rflt khac nhau Theo dt bao clla nhieuchuyen gia va Hti d5ng Vang the gioi(WGC) trong nam 2004 gia yang se tieptlC tang tren muc 400 USD va dao dtngtrong khoang 400-500 USDOunce Trongkhi d6 nhieu dJ bao khac Ii cho ding giayang trong nam 2004 se chi dao dtng trongphllmvi 310-400 USDOunce

Trong b5i canh kinh teva chinh trt thegioi hi~n nay rflt kh6 dJ bao chinh xac vegia yang Di~n bien clla gia yang trongtuong lai phl thutc vao rflt nhieu nhan totir Chll quan (cach xlt Iy clla cac ngan hangtrung uong d5i voi yang dJ tru ) cho tOikhach quan (tinh hinh kinh teva chinh trithegioi) trong khi d6 nhieu trong sonhilngnhan to nay la kh6 c6 th~ dJ doan dugc mttcach chinh xac Di~n bien clla gia yangtrong nam 2003 la mtt minh chung

V PHAN LON cAc NlJOC CONG NGHI~PPHAT TRIEN T1EP Tl)C THVC HI~N CHiNHSACH NO LONG TII~NT~

Trong nam 2003 cac nuoc cong nghi~pphat tri~n nhu My Lien minh chau AuThuy Di~n Thuy Sy Nauy va Niu Dilantiep tlC thJc hi~n chinh sach tien ~ noilong voi vi~c ciit giam liii suflt tOi muc thflpky llc trong vong 45 nam k~ til nam 1958

Nguyen Hong 5dn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

(xem Bang 2) Duy tri chinh sach liii sufltzero Ngan hang trung uong Nhit Ban(BOJ) cung tiep tlC md rtng hon nua cungtien bampng cach ~oi long quy dinh d5i voi taikhoan hi~n hanh clla cnc t6 chuc tai chinhtlli BOJ cung nhu slt dll1g mtt so bi~nphap kich thich kinh te kbac Liii sufltdanh nghia thflp dii khien cho liii suat thJctetrung binh clla cac m(oc G7 lfin dfiu tientrong ljch slt k~ tir nam 1970 mang gin triam

T5c dttang trudng kinh tethflp d(ic bi~tla iJ My Lien minh chilu Au va Nhit Bantrong quy 112003 bat 6n dinh dia - chinh trio nhieu noi tren the gioi d(ic bi~t la dTrung Dong va Inic gin diiu tang caonhung tac dtng tieu cc cua s( 116va bongbOng c6 phieu tir niim 2000 khu vJc congngh~ cao tiep tlC tri tr~ nhung tac dtngtieu cJc clla b~rih dich SARS 0 chilu A lanhung nguyen nhan khien cho ngan hangtrung uong nhieu nuoc cong nghi~p phattri~n tiep tJlCthJc hi~n chinh sach tien t~noi long nhampm kich thich sJ phlc hoi cllathi trudng chung khoan chong Illinguy cogiam phat va thuc diiy nen kinh te tangtruong Doi voi khu vJc d5ng Euro vi~cgiam liii suat can giup trung hoa nhung tacdtng tieu cc doi voi xuat khiiu do sv lengia clla Euro so voi Dola My gay nen

NgucJcIllitrong nam 2003 mtt so nganhang trung udng khac nhu ngan hangtrung 1dng Canada dii thJc hi~n chinhsach tien t~ thiit ch(it nhampm chong Ii apIc cua Illmphat TUdng tv nhu viy nganhang trung uong Anh cung dii nang liii suatvao thang 112003 sau khi thuc hien 2 Ifinciit giam mllnh vao nhung thimg diiu namva giu nam

Danh gia dtng thai cua chinh sach tient~ d cac nuoc cong nghi~p phat tri~n trongnam 2003 cac chuyen gia kinh tedeu chorampng chinh sach tien t~ noi long lit phil hcJp

1

1D---------------NhUng in de KINH TE THE GIO 561(93) 2004

- - - bullbull ~) c~

Ngu6n Credit Lyonnais Group Acceleration No 138 December 2003

Bang 2 DIjbiw xu htioog lill suat ella milt s6 mine eong nghi~p phat trin nam 2004

Nhiing di[ie di~m cd ban ella tii ehinh

Chu thich

1 The Economist 11102003

2 The Economist 1392003

3 Ddu tllch(mg khoan 772003

4 The Economist 11102003 692003

dang tiep tve tiem tin nhieu nguy co bat 5ndoi hoi cac nlioc phm tiep tJlCcai t5 co cauthttc hi~n nhung chinh sach ty gia hoi doailinh hOltlthon va tang clidng hqp tac trongvifc phoi hcJpcac chinh sach kinh te vi mod~ co th~ phan ung lltlimQt cach tot nhatdOivoi nhung bien dQngbat ngd co th~ xayra

va kip thdi Nhung chinh sach nay cung voichinh sach tai chinh md rilng d cac mtoccong nghi~p phat tri~n dii co nhUng tacdQng tich cttc toi thi trlidng chung khoan(nhli dii trinh bay d tren) va kich thich cacnen kinh te tang trlidng Sttphvc hili ch~mclla nen kinh te d cac nlioc dIng nghi~pphat tri~n cung voi nhung nguy co giamphiit d mQt s6 nlioc dii khien cho nhieu dttbao cho dlng liii suat d phln IOn cac nliocdIng nghi~p phat tri~n se dlicJcgiu nguyeneho toi cu6i nam 2004 (xem bang 2)

Nhli v~y nhung dillcdi~m n6i b~t clla taichinh-tien t~ the gioi nam 2003 cho thaymillc du phln Ion cac nlioc dii va dang conhUng dieuchinhchinh sach kinh tevi mophu hcJpnhlingtrong Hnh vJc nay v~n

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE Glell 561(93) 2004

IUii suat I Ldi tac trili phieu chinh oh

MIJe3 12 10

thang thang nam 10 30tieu

2nam 5namIibor libor swap nam nam

Mv 281103 100 117 154 457 203 330 426 5082902104 100 115 155 508 205 350 460 550310504 100 120 160 522 220 365 470 560301104 150 165 185 589 300 430 525 595

Nhlit Ban 281103 000 006 009 134 012 056 1302902104 000 010 010 136 010 055 130310504 000 010 010 137 010 055 130301104 000 010 010 188 020 078 175

EU 281103 200 216 246 454 280 375 446 5052902104 200 215 245 478 280 375 450 530310504 200 215 245 499 285 385 460 540301104 225 235 260 525 300 400 480 550

Anh 281103 375 398 458 524 459 495 506 4832902104 400 420 465 558 470 507 518 505310504 425 440 480 574 485 514 523 530301104 450 460 490 590 495 524 533 540

Canada 2811103 275 280 290 322 413 484 5312902104 275 280 290 330 430 510 570310504 275 285 305 330 440 520 580301104 325 335 350 370 490 575 615

Thuv poundIiim 281103 275 289 318 525 323 434 5002902104 275 285 310 535 320 436 505310504 275 290 320 550 330 443 510301104 300 315 340 575 350 463 530

Nguy~n Hong sdn-Philm Anh Tuan

~ - - ~ft

bull ~li~

Nguyen Hong Sdn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

18 No end Ln sight The Economist22112003

12 Snow business The Economist692003

The

Financial

needed

3 IMF InternationalStatistics 102003

4 WB Global Development Finance2003

10 Re-orientationEconomist 1272003

11 Looking up The Economist692003

8 Grapping with the strong EuroThe Economist 762003

9 Fear of floating The Economist1272003

5 BIS 73Anual Report

6 Monetary Policy Report to theCongress (Report submitted to the Congresson July 15 2003 pursuant to section 2B ofthe Federal Reserve Act) Federal ReserveBulletin August 2003

7 Keep it weak The Economist762003

13 Economics focus - Fix or float TheEconomist 1392003

14 Dont get your hopes down yet TheEconomist 1392003

15 A-a-and down The Economist2792003

16 Rising The Economist 11102003

17 Theyre back The Economist11102003

19 Stuck in the Middle TheEconomist 1112003

20 Thien Long Dong USD co khrlnang con girlm gici DAu tl1 Chung khoanNgay 552003

5 Ddu tuchung khocin 772003 ChUngkhoan Vi~t Nam 82003

6 The Economist 1392003

7 The Economist 692003

8 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

9 The Economist 762003

10 Ddu tuchUng khocin 13102003

11 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

12 The Economist 27112003

13 IMF International FinancialStatistics 102003

14 The Economist 1112003

15 The Economist 1392003

16 The Economist 1262003

17 Trong nam 2003 Nga dii tuyen biltang tj trltmgvang trong dl trft ngorihilichfnh thuc clla minh

18 Thdi ky 1996-1999 gia vang giam(mua he nam 1999 dlilt muc 250USDounce muc thap nhat trong vang 20nam) do 2 nguyen nhan Dola My tang giad6ng thdi vdi sl gia tang clla gia chungkhoan va ngan hang trung l1dng cac nl1dcban vang dl trft

19 Theo hi~p djnh Washington nganhang trung l1dng clla 15 nl1dc cong nghi~pph at triEln hliln che so 1l1clngvang ban ra toida m6i nam la 400 tan (cac ngan hang nayhi~n dang nlm gift tdi 44 1l1clngvang dltrft the gidi)

Nhiing d~c diiim Cd blm cua tili chin h

TAl LIJ)U TRAM KHAO

1 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

2 IMF Financial Stability Report92003

i i II i

I

Ii I It

I ~II

I

bull --------------NhiJtJg vitn deKINH TE THE GICII s6 1(93) 2004

F

Nhiing d~e di~m cd blm ella tai ehinh

36 Minh Tri NrJi long dau tIt ra benngOal D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay17112003

37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

trong ngampn hgn Diiu tli Chung khomNgay 17112003

41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

bull

29 Hang Due Trung Quoe dltClisue eptang gia NDT ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 1092003

30 Hang Due Cae nltrJeG7 keu gQi tMniJi ty gia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[t NamNgay 2992003

31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

33 Nguyen The Nghii[pDanh ch(intrltrJccd vt tai chinh ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~tNam Ngay 22102003

34 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN My thamhllt ngan sach chlta titng co Ngay23102003

Nhiing VBn de KINH TETHE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------- R

21 Chi DUng Diin bien mgt sci thitrltiJng chung khoan Chau A trong thang5 Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 62003

22 Thien Long Co nen tich triL d6ngdola D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay166200323 Mai Hlidng uin at cd USD D~u

tli Chung khoan Ngay 1662003

24 Phlidng Anh Chau A se phdi xemxct 19i ty gia D~u t1(Chung khoan Ngay236200325 Chi Dung Nhitng dau hi~u 19e

quan mm Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang7200326 Tung Phlidng Diln bien trai chdu

tren thi trltiJng My Bao D~u tli Chungkhoan Ngay 772003

27 Chi Dung Dau hi~u 19cquan titcac thi trltiJng Au-My Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 82003

28 Chi Dung Dau hieu phuc h6i trencae thi trltfmg khu vyenc ehau A Thang92003

Nguylin Hong Sdn-PhltlmAnh Tuan

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-gaB~~~bull TS Ph~m Thanh Binh Khai qual ve tinh hinh holtt09n9 eua caeTCTD co von nuae ngoai lltIiVi~1 Nam trong nam 2002 30bull TS Phm Huy Hung Ho1 d(gtng kinh doanh nam 2002 va dnhhuang m~c tieu nam 2003 eua NHCTVN 32bull Nguyen PhllOc Hoa Ngan hang PMt trJen nM dong bang s6ngCtiu Long - Ket qua hoat dong nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 35bull TS Mai S~n Hol d909 thanh loan ngan hang nam 2002 Kel quava djnh huang hoan thi~n 37bull Nguyen Th Thdm M9t s6 y kien ve qulm Iy ngoi hoi eua NHNNViet Nam 39bull TS Dinh Th Dien Hong NhCfng van de d~l ra eho ho1 d9n9 ellacae NHTM trang kinh doanh chung khoan a Vi~l Nam hi~n nay 42bull TS Nguyen Dae Hung Nhin J~i eong lac quan Iy ngoltlihoi va dienbien Ih lrudng ngo9i t~ lrong nam 2002 47bull IS Ph an Van Tinh Mil s6 van de ve enh tranh ella cae NHTMIrong dieu ki~n hii nh~p 50bull Le Van Xuan Mil so y kien ve thanh Ira ngatl hang gop phannghieOcUu bo sung sua doi Lu~t Ngan hang Nha nlfOe lrong thOigian~ 54bull TS Nguyen Van Tien Quyen Chltl0lien Iq va kh~ nang ap dynga Vi$l Nam 56bull Nguyen Van DOng NHTM Thanh ph6 H6 Chf Minh Irong qua

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Ngu6n Credit Lyonnais Group Acceleration No 138 December 2003

Bang 2 DIjbiw xu htioog lill suat ella milt s6 mine eong nghi~p phat trin nam 2004

Nhiing di[ie di~m cd ban ella tii ehinh

Chu thich

1 The Economist 11102003

2 The Economist 1392003

3 Ddu tllch(mg khoan 772003

4 The Economist 11102003 692003

dang tiep tve tiem tin nhieu nguy co bat 5ndoi hoi cac nlioc phm tiep tJlCcai t5 co cauthttc hi~n nhung chinh sach ty gia hoi doailinh hOltlthon va tang clidng hqp tac trongvifc phoi hcJpcac chinh sach kinh te vi mod~ co th~ phan ung lltlimQt cach tot nhatdOivoi nhung bien dQngbat ngd co th~ xayra

va kip thdi Nhung chinh sach nay cung voichinh sach tai chinh md rilng d cac mtoccong nghi~p phat tri~n dii co nhUng tacdQng tich cttc toi thi trlidng chung khoan(nhli dii trinh bay d tren) va kich thich cacnen kinh te tang trlidng Sttphvc hili ch~mclla nen kinh te d cac nlioc dIng nghi~pphat tri~n cung voi nhung nguy co giamphiit d mQt s6 nlioc dii khien cho nhieu dttbao cho dlng liii suat d phln IOn cac nliocdIng nghi~p phat tri~n se dlicJcgiu nguyeneho toi cu6i nam 2004 (xem bang 2)

Nhli v~y nhung dillcdi~m n6i b~t clla taichinh-tien t~ the gioi nam 2003 cho thaymillc du phln Ion cac nlioc dii va dang conhUng dieuchinhchinh sach kinh tevi mophu hcJpnhlingtrong Hnh vJc nay v~n

Nhiing van de KINH TE THE Glell 561(93) 2004

IUii suat I Ldi tac trili phieu chinh oh

MIJe3 12 10

thang thang nam 10 30tieu

2nam 5namIibor libor swap nam nam

Mv 281103 100 117 154 457 203 330 426 5082902104 100 115 155 508 205 350 460 550310504 100 120 160 522 220 365 470 560301104 150 165 185 589 300 430 525 595

Nhlit Ban 281103 000 006 009 134 012 056 1302902104 000 010 010 136 010 055 130310504 000 010 010 137 010 055 130301104 000 010 010 188 020 078 175

EU 281103 200 216 246 454 280 375 446 5052902104 200 215 245 478 280 375 450 530310504 200 215 245 499 285 385 460 540301104 225 235 260 525 300 400 480 550

Anh 281103 375 398 458 524 459 495 506 4832902104 400 420 465 558 470 507 518 505310504 425 440 480 574 485 514 523 530301104 450 460 490 590 495 524 533 540

Canada 2811103 275 280 290 322 413 484 5312902104 275 280 290 330 430 510 570310504 275 285 305 330 440 520 580301104 325 335 350 370 490 575 615

Thuv poundIiim 281103 275 289 318 525 323 434 5002902104 275 285 310 535 320 436 505310504 275 290 320 550 330 443 510301104 300 315 340 575 350 463 530

Nguy~n Hong sdn-Philm Anh Tuan

~ - - ~ft

bull ~li~

Nguyen Hong Sdn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

18 No end Ln sight The Economist22112003

12 Snow business The Economist692003

The

Financial

needed

3 IMF InternationalStatistics 102003

4 WB Global Development Finance2003

10 Re-orientationEconomist 1272003

11 Looking up The Economist692003

8 Grapping with the strong EuroThe Economist 762003

9 Fear of floating The Economist1272003

5 BIS 73Anual Report

6 Monetary Policy Report to theCongress (Report submitted to the Congresson July 15 2003 pursuant to section 2B ofthe Federal Reserve Act) Federal ReserveBulletin August 2003

7 Keep it weak The Economist762003

13 Economics focus - Fix or float TheEconomist 1392003

14 Dont get your hopes down yet TheEconomist 1392003

15 A-a-and down The Economist2792003

16 Rising The Economist 11102003

17 Theyre back The Economist11102003

19 Stuck in the Middle TheEconomist 1112003

20 Thien Long Dong USD co khrlnang con girlm gici DAu tl1 Chung khoanNgay 552003

5 Ddu tuchung khocin 772003 ChUngkhoan Vi~t Nam 82003

6 The Economist 1392003

7 The Economist 692003

8 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

9 The Economist 762003

10 Ddu tuchUng khocin 13102003

11 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

12 The Economist 27112003

13 IMF International FinancialStatistics 102003

14 The Economist 1112003

15 The Economist 1392003

16 The Economist 1262003

17 Trong nam 2003 Nga dii tuyen biltang tj trltmgvang trong dl trft ngorihilichfnh thuc clla minh

18 Thdi ky 1996-1999 gia vang giam(mua he nam 1999 dlilt muc 250USDounce muc thap nhat trong vang 20nam) do 2 nguyen nhan Dola My tang giad6ng thdi vdi sl gia tang clla gia chungkhoan va ngan hang trung l1dng cac nl1dcban vang dl trft

19 Theo hi~p djnh Washington nganhang trung l1dng clla 15 nl1dc cong nghi~pph at triEln hliln che so 1l1clngvang ban ra toida m6i nam la 400 tan (cac ngan hang nayhi~n dang nlm gift tdi 44 1l1clngvang dltrft the gidi)

Nhiing d~c diiim Cd blm cua tili chin h

TAl LIJ)U TRAM KHAO

1 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

2 IMF Financial Stability Report92003

i i II i

I

Ii I It

I ~II

I

bull --------------NhiJtJg vitn deKINH TE THE GICII s6 1(93) 2004

F

Nhiing d~e di~m cd blm ella tai ehinh

36 Minh Tri NrJi long dau tIt ra benngOal D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay17112003

37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

trong ngampn hgn Diiu tli Chung khomNgay 17112003

41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

bull

29 Hang Due Trung Quoe dltClisue eptang gia NDT ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 1092003

30 Hang Due Cae nltrJeG7 keu gQi tMniJi ty gia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[t NamNgay 2992003

31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

33 Nguyen The Nghii[pDanh ch(intrltrJccd vt tai chinh ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~tNam Ngay 22102003

34 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN My thamhllt ngan sach chlta titng co Ngay23102003

Nhiing VBn de KINH TETHE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------- R

21 Chi DUng Diin bien mgt sci thitrltiJng chung khoan Chau A trong thang5 Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 62003

22 Thien Long Co nen tich triL d6ngdola D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay166200323 Mai Hlidng uin at cd USD D~u

tli Chung khoan Ngay 1662003

24 Phlidng Anh Chau A se phdi xemxct 19i ty gia D~u t1(Chung khoan Ngay236200325 Chi Dung Nhitng dau hi~u 19e

quan mm Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang7200326 Tung Phlidng Diln bien trai chdu

tren thi trltiJng My Bao D~u tli Chungkhoan Ngay 772003

27 Chi Dung Dau hi~u 19cquan titcac thi trltiJng Au-My Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 82003

28 Chi Dung Dau hieu phuc h6i trencae thi trltfmg khu vyenc ehau A Thang92003

Nguylin Hong Sdn-PhltlmAnh Tuan

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Gi1yphep xutt ban 56 59jGP-BVHTTIn t1ii Nhit in Khoa h~lC va C6ng ngh~

TS Nguyen poundlinh TVTSfllnh Th Oien HongTS Nguyen poundlac HungTS Nguyen poundllnh Trung

T6ng bien hipPh6 t6ng bifn t9P

Truong ban Thu ky

-Tap chi IY lu~n va nghi~p v~

eua Ngan hang Nha nuae Viet NamNam tha 51 bull So 1 + 2 nam 2003

Tau soan 13A De LQThonh Hii N6iFo)84-41 5113383 E-mQil tcnhhnvnnvn

~pound~~ngva dinhhLfCfngICfnIf M~ tieu Va cae chtieu chu yeu ala nan 2003 1bull Tran Minh Tuan NHNN Vi$ Nam danh ga cao strd6ng fiJp aJa cae 16mVc tai chinh quec le va cae Tem nuoc ngl3i ~i11$1Nam 2G TS Nguyen Van GiilU 10 namxay dlJllgva phattnen COngooan Ngtmhang V~I Nam 3bull TS Nguy~n Dinh Ty lInh hinh heal OO1gTap chi Ngan hang rom 2002va dnh hlJdng nhi$m ~ narn 2003 8bull HaDan HucmM9t va suy nghf ve nganh Ngan hang va qua mnhdarn phangia nhap INTO 10bull VOPhLfdng Lien C61gtac quim Ii ngJ9i h6 nam 2002 va dinh hUOngnam2003 12bull TnJc1ngDinh Song Kiem sOOtkiem toan rxlib9 NHNN kel qua hOld(gtng nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 15G TS Trinh Ng9c Khanh Quan h~ lao 09n9 lrang NHTM NM nUDekhi Lu$l sua obi bo sung B9 lu$1 Lao 09n9 co hi~u Ilfc 208 VO Cong Khanh Suy nghTve giai phapkhae ph~c Ion lltIinang caochallu~ng ho oQng khoa h9C eong ngh~ ngan hang 26bull 10 nh6rn Slf ki~n noi b~f trang hO109n9 ngan hang nam 2002 28

-gaB~~~bull TS Ph~m Thanh Binh Khai qual ve tinh hinh holtt09n9 eua caeTCTD co von nuae ngoai lltIiVi~1 Nam trong nam 2002 30bull TS Phm Huy Hung Ho1 d(gtng kinh doanh nam 2002 va dnhhuang m~c tieu nam 2003 eua NHCTVN 32bull Nguyen PhllOc Hoa Ngan hang PMt trJen nM dong bang s6ngCtiu Long - Ket qua hoat dong nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 35bull TS Mai S~n Hol d909 thanh loan ngan hang nam 2002 Kel quava djnh huang hoan thi~n 37bull Nguyen Th Thdm M9t s6 y kien ve qulm Iy ngoi hoi eua NHNNViet Nam 39bull TS Dinh Th Dien Hong NhCfng van de d~l ra eho ho1 d9n9 ellacae NHTM trang kinh doanh chung khoan a Vi~l Nam hi~n nay 42bull TS Nguyen Dae Hung Nhin J~i eong lac quan Iy ngoltlihoi va dienbien Ih lrudng ngo9i t~ lrong nam 2002 47bull IS Ph an Van Tinh Mil s6 van de ve enh tranh ella cae NHTMIrong dieu ki~n hii nh~p 50bull Le Van Xuan Mil so y kien ve thanh Ira ngatl hang gop phannghieOcUu bo sung sua doi Lu~t Ngan hang Nha nlfOe lrong thOigian~ 54bull TS Nguyen Van Tien Quyen Chltl0lien Iq va kh~ nang ap dynga Vi$l Nam 56bull Nguyen Van DOng NHTM Thanh ph6 H6 Chf Minh Irong qua

Irinh qmh lranh va phallnen 59

bull Nguyen Van PhUdng San them ve d9i di$n dvqc uy quyen clla

NHTM 61o Nguyen Th Kim Nhung Giai phap rna r6lg liil d~ng nang nghi~pva nong thon vung dong bang s6ng Hong 61bull va Phuc Thai Ban Ihem ve m9t 56 dieu k$n de nang cao hi~uqua ho1 ding eGa NHTM 68o ThS LlfU TlllJY Mai Kiem loan nQi bt - M9i so van de Irong vi~cbo sung sua doi quy ehe _ 70e Nguyen Mnh Ton Ngan hang Ngoi lhuang Viet Nam - Co hQiva Ihach lhue - 72bull Hal Thanh Ve Ihte lring hot d919 ngan hang iren cia ban t1nhNam Djnh Irong nam qua 75

~77~~~yeng~~~~~~~~g~~~~~~Jg~gibull ThS Nguy1n Dinh LUJ He thong OTDNO qua han 2niimwngc6chan chinh thea Chi lh[ 57 eGa89 Chfnh 76Cl ThS pound)oan Van Tharig lhlfC hiGnb3odam h~nYay d6i va cae n6nglam lrvang vay von ngfm hang _ _ 79

[_LJJ~4~~~~~w~EH~nmti$i=I1ife TS pound)0 Th Thuy San ve co phan hoa doanh nghi$p Nha nubc v6i

Ih trLlang chung khoan 6 Vi~l Nam _ 82G T~nh Th Ng9C Lan ThlfCtI9ng va giai phap ve vOncho cbanh nghi~p vUava nhOtren ltla ban Ha Nc 84bull Ha Thanh Ve vi~e gop v6n dieu r~ cho Ouy Sao lanh tin dyng 86

lt ~~ iiripoundI~~i~~~~~I~E~~g~~iS~~r~~~lbull TS Nguyen Hong Sdn Taj ehinh - lien I~ the giClinam 2002NhCfng st kien noi b$t 88bull Nguyen Th[ Kim Oanh Van de von dlf In lrong ho91 09n9 baahiem lien gUi _ 93bull va Chinh Thanh Ira ngan hang ( m9t so nLlDeChau Au rang lienlrinh cai t6 va gia nh~p EU 95

_~~[i~~aii29 Nguyen Ouy Lg Quy ngoltlit~dc bi$l ~HoltldQng ngan harlgngoi h6i dc bi~l ph~c vll chi vi$n chien IrlIang (19651975) 96~ Le Sa T~o Ti$crung 102GI Ph~m Slf Ke chuy$n Chuyen giay bc Ngan hang tli Vi$ Sac veK~4 1mI) Tho cau dui tet

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Nguyen Hong Sdn-Ph~m Anh Tuan

18 No end Ln sight The Economist22112003

12 Snow business The Economist692003

The

Financial

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3 IMF InternationalStatistics 102003

4 WB Global Development Finance2003

10 Re-orientationEconomist 1272003

11 Looking up The Economist692003

8 Grapping with the strong EuroThe Economist 762003

9 Fear of floating The Economist1272003

5 BIS 73Anual Report

6 Monetary Policy Report to theCongress (Report submitted to the Congresson July 15 2003 pursuant to section 2B ofthe Federal Reserve Act) Federal ReserveBulletin August 2003

7 Keep it weak The Economist762003

13 Economics focus - Fix or float TheEconomist 1392003

14 Dont get your hopes down yet TheEconomist 1392003

15 A-a-and down The Economist2792003

16 Rising The Economist 11102003

17 Theyre back The Economist11102003

19 Stuck in the Middle TheEconomist 1112003

20 Thien Long Dong USD co khrlnang con girlm gici DAu tl1 Chung khoanNgay 552003

5 Ddu tuchung khocin 772003 ChUngkhoan Vi~t Nam 82003

6 The Economist 1392003

7 The Economist 692003

8 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

9 The Economist 762003

10 Ddu tuchUng khocin 13102003

11 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

12 The Economist 27112003

13 IMF International FinancialStatistics 102003

14 The Economist 1112003

15 The Economist 1392003

16 The Economist 1262003

17 Trong nam 2003 Nga dii tuyen biltang tj trltmgvang trong dl trft ngorihilichfnh thuc clla minh

18 Thdi ky 1996-1999 gia vang giam(mua he nam 1999 dlilt muc 250USDounce muc thap nhat trong vang 20nam) do 2 nguyen nhan Dola My tang giad6ng thdi vdi sl gia tang clla gia chungkhoan va ngan hang trung l1dng cac nl1dcban vang dl trft

19 Theo hi~p djnh Washington nganhang trung l1dng clla 15 nl1dc cong nghi~pph at triEln hliln che so 1l1clngvang ban ra toida m6i nam la 400 tan (cac ngan hang nayhi~n dang nlm gift tdi 44 1l1clngvang dltrft the gidi)

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1 IMF World Economic Outlook92003

2 IMF Financial Stability Report92003

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Nhiing d~e di~m cd blm ella tai ehinh

36 Minh Tri NrJi long dau tIt ra benngOal D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay17112003

37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

trong ngampn hgn Diiu tli Chung khomNgay 17112003

41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

bull

29 Hang Due Trung Quoe dltClisue eptang gia NDT ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 1092003

30 Hang Due Cae nltrJeG7 keu gQi tMniJi ty gia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[t NamNgay 2992003

31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

33 Nguyen The Nghii[pDanh ch(intrltrJccd vt tai chinh ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~tNam Ngay 22102003

34 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN My thamhllt ngan sach chlta titng co Ngay23102003

Nhiing VBn de KINH TETHE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------- R

21 Chi DUng Diin bien mgt sci thitrltiJng chung khoan Chau A trong thang5 Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 62003

22 Thien Long Co nen tich triL d6ngdola D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay166200323 Mai Hlidng uin at cd USD D~u

tli Chung khoan Ngay 1662003

24 Phlidng Anh Chau A se phdi xemxct 19i ty gia D~u t1(Chung khoan Ngay236200325 Chi Dung Nhitng dau hi~u 19e

quan mm Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang7200326 Tung Phlidng Diln bien trai chdu

tren thi trltiJng My Bao D~u tli Chungkhoan Ngay 772003

27 Chi Dung Dau hi~u 19cquan titcac thi trltiJng Au-My Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 82003

28 Chi Dung Dau hieu phuc h6i trencae thi trltfmg khu vyenc ehau A Thang92003

Nguylin Hong Sdn-PhltlmAnh Tuan

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Dj~n thoi - Phong Ke-toan-T6ng h~p~Tri Ill (84-4) 5113384- Ban Bien t~p f84-41 5113379-nun Thlfky (84-4) 5113378

Gi1yphep xutt ban 56 59jGP-BVHTTIn t1ii Nhit in Khoa h~lC va C6ng ngh~

TS Nguyen poundlinh TVTSfllnh Th Oien HongTS Nguyen poundlac HungTS Nguyen poundllnh Trung

T6ng bien hipPh6 t6ng bifn t9P

Truong ban Thu ky

-Tap chi IY lu~n va nghi~p v~

eua Ngan hang Nha nuae Viet NamNam tha 51 bull So 1 + 2 nam 2003

Tau soan 13A De LQThonh Hii N6iFo)84-41 5113383 E-mQil tcnhhnvnnvn

~pound~~ngva dinhhLfCfngICfnIf M~ tieu Va cae chtieu chu yeu ala nan 2003 1bull Tran Minh Tuan NHNN Vi$ Nam danh ga cao strd6ng fiJp aJa cae 16mVc tai chinh quec le va cae Tem nuoc ngl3i ~i11$1Nam 2G TS Nguyen Van GiilU 10 namxay dlJllgva phattnen COngooan Ngtmhang V~I Nam 3bull TS Nguy~n Dinh Ty lInh hinh heal OO1gTap chi Ngan hang rom 2002va dnh hlJdng nhi$m ~ narn 2003 8bull HaDan HucmM9t va suy nghf ve nganh Ngan hang va qua mnhdarn phangia nhap INTO 10bull VOPhLfdng Lien C61gtac quim Ii ngJ9i h6 nam 2002 va dinh hUOngnam2003 12bull TnJc1ngDinh Song Kiem sOOtkiem toan rxlib9 NHNN kel qua hOld(gtng nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 15G TS Trinh Ng9c Khanh Quan h~ lao 09n9 lrang NHTM NM nUDekhi Lu$l sua obi bo sung B9 lu$1 Lao 09n9 co hi~u Ilfc 208 VO Cong Khanh Suy nghTve giai phapkhae ph~c Ion lltIinang caochallu~ng ho oQng khoa h9C eong ngh~ ngan hang 26bull 10 nh6rn Slf ki~n noi b~f trang hO109n9 ngan hang nam 2002 28

-gaB~~~bull TS Ph~m Thanh Binh Khai qual ve tinh hinh holtt09n9 eua caeTCTD co von nuae ngoai lltIiVi~1 Nam trong nam 2002 30bull TS Phm Huy Hung Ho1 d(gtng kinh doanh nam 2002 va dnhhuang m~c tieu nam 2003 eua NHCTVN 32bull Nguyen PhllOc Hoa Ngan hang PMt trJen nM dong bang s6ngCtiu Long - Ket qua hoat dong nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 35bull TS Mai S~n Hol d909 thanh loan ngan hang nam 2002 Kel quava djnh huang hoan thi~n 37bull Nguyen Th Thdm M9t s6 y kien ve qulm Iy ngoi hoi eua NHNNViet Nam 39bull TS Dinh Th Dien Hong NhCfng van de d~l ra eho ho1 d9n9 ellacae NHTM trang kinh doanh chung khoan a Vi~l Nam hi~n nay 42bull TS Nguyen Dae Hung Nhin J~i eong lac quan Iy ngoltlihoi va dienbien Ih lrudng ngo9i t~ lrong nam 2002 47bull IS Ph an Van Tinh Mil s6 van de ve enh tranh ella cae NHTMIrong dieu ki~n hii nh~p 50bull Le Van Xuan Mil so y kien ve thanh Ira ngatl hang gop phannghieOcUu bo sung sua doi Lu~t Ngan hang Nha nlfOe lrong thOigian~ 54bull TS Nguyen Van Tien Quyen Chltl0lien Iq va kh~ nang ap dynga Vi$l Nam 56bull Nguyen Van DOng NHTM Thanh ph6 H6 Chf Minh Irong qua

Irinh qmh lranh va phallnen 59

bull Nguyen Van PhUdng San them ve d9i di$n dvqc uy quyen clla

NHTM 61o Nguyen Th Kim Nhung Giai phap rna r6lg liil d~ng nang nghi~pva nong thon vung dong bang s6ng Hong 61bull va Phuc Thai Ban Ihem ve m9t 56 dieu k$n de nang cao hi~uqua ho1 ding eGa NHTM 68o ThS LlfU TlllJY Mai Kiem loan nQi bt - M9i so van de Irong vi~cbo sung sua doi quy ehe _ 70e Nguyen Mnh Ton Ngan hang Ngoi lhuang Viet Nam - Co hQiva Ihach lhue - 72bull Hal Thanh Ve Ihte lring hot d919 ngan hang iren cia ban t1nhNam Djnh Irong nam qua 75

~77~~~yeng~~~~~~~~g~~~~~~Jg~gibull ThS Nguy1n Dinh LUJ He thong OTDNO qua han 2niimwngc6chan chinh thea Chi lh[ 57 eGa89 Chfnh 76Cl ThS pound)oan Van Tharig lhlfC hiGnb3odam h~nYay d6i va cae n6nglam lrvang vay von ngfm hang _ _ 79

[_LJJ~4~~~~~w~EH~nmti$i=I1ife TS pound)0 Th Thuy San ve co phan hoa doanh nghi$p Nha nubc v6i

Ih trLlang chung khoan 6 Vi~l Nam _ 82G T~nh Th Ng9C Lan ThlfCtI9ng va giai phap ve vOncho cbanh nghi~p vUava nhOtren ltla ban Ha Nc 84bull Ha Thanh Ve vi~e gop v6n dieu r~ cho Ouy Sao lanh tin dyng 86

lt ~~ iiripoundI~~i~~~~~I~E~~g~~iS~~r~~~lbull TS Nguyen Hong Sdn Taj ehinh - lien I~ the giClinam 2002NhCfng st kien noi b$t 88bull Nguyen Th[ Kim Oanh Van de von dlf In lrong ho91 09n9 baahiem lien gUi _ 93bull va Chinh Thanh Ira ngan hang ( m9t so nLlDeChau Au rang lienlrinh cai t6 va gia nh~p EU 95

_~~[i~~aii29 Nguyen Ouy Lg Quy ngoltlit~dc bi$l ~HoltldQng ngan harlgngoi h6i dc bi~l ph~c vll chi vi$n chien IrlIang (19651975) 96~ Le Sa T~o Ti$crung 102GI Ph~m Slf Ke chuy$n Chuyen giay bc Ngan hang tli Vi$ Sac veK~4 1mI) Tho cau dui tet

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F

Nhiing d~e di~m cd blm ella tai ehinh

36 Minh Tri NrJi long dau tIt ra benngOal D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay17112003

37 Due Linh Am i nhitu vu be bOttren thi trltiJng chltn1f khoan My Diiu tliChung khoan Ngay 17112003

38 Phlidng Anh Dong danh gia vangD~u tli Chung khoan Ngay 10112003

39 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My con thapden baa giiJ Diiu tli Chung khoan Ngay311200340 Gia Thanh Lji suat d My v6n thap

trong ngampn hgn Diiu tli Chung khomNgay 17112003

41 Due Linh D6ng USD yeu se tacdgng mgnh den kinh te toan cau Diu tliChung khoan Ngay 10112003

42 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN D6ngEURO tang gia so vrJi d6ng USD dj anhhltCtng tCliqua trinh phllCh6i eua ehau AuNgay 6112003

43 Hang Due Thi trltiJng ngogi hOtthe giCli chao dao ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[tNam Ngay 24112003

44 Dlidng Ngge Xu hltrJng vang tanggia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~t Nam Ngay24112003

45 Ngge Anh Bong den baa phu quanM Trung - My ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 26112003

35 Gia Thanh Dong chay lOn manhhan D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay10112003

bull

29 Hang Due Trung Quoe dltClisue eptang gia NDT ThiJi bao Kinh teVii[tNamNgay 1092003

30 Hang Due Cae nltrJeG7 keu gQi tMniJi ty gia ThiJi bao Kinh te Vii[t NamNgay 2992003

31 Linh Due Dau tit tai chinh dangco xu hltrJng h6i phllc D~u tli ChUngkhoan Ngay 6102003

32 Minh Tri Trung Quae se dituchinh ty gia (Mng nhan dan t~ vao dau namtCliD~u tli ChUng khoan Ngay 13102003

33 Nguyen The Nghii[pDanh ch(intrltrJccd vt tai chinh ThiJi bao Kinh te Vi~tNam Ngay 22102003

34 Tin kinh te eua TTXVN My thamhllt ngan sach chlta titng co Ngay23102003

Nhiing VBn de KINH TETHE GIOI So 1(93) 2004 --------------- R

21 Chi DUng Diin bien mgt sci thitrltiJng chung khoan Chau A trong thang5 Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 62003

22 Thien Long Co nen tich triL d6ngdola D~u tli Chung khoan Ngay166200323 Mai Hlidng uin at cd USD D~u

tli Chung khoan Ngay 1662003

24 Phlidng Anh Chau A se phdi xemxct 19i ty gia D~u t1(Chung khoan Ngay236200325 Chi Dung Nhitng dau hi~u 19e

quan mm Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang7200326 Tung Phlidng Diln bien trai chdu

tren thi trltiJng My Bao D~u tli Chungkhoan Ngay 772003

27 Chi Dung Dau hi~u 19cquan titcac thi trltiJng Au-My Chung khoan Vii[tNam Thang 82003

28 Chi Dung Dau hieu phuc h6i trencae thi trltfmg khu vyenc ehau A Thang92003

Nguylin Hong Sdn-PhltlmAnh Tuan

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Dj~n thoi - Phong Ke-toan-T6ng h~p~Tri Ill (84-4) 5113384- Ban Bien t~p f84-41 5113379-nun Thlfky (84-4) 5113378

Gi1yphep xutt ban 56 59jGP-BVHTTIn t1ii Nhit in Khoa h~lC va C6ng ngh~

TS Nguyen poundlinh TVTSfllnh Th Oien HongTS Nguyen poundlac HungTS Nguyen poundllnh Trung

T6ng bien hipPh6 t6ng bifn t9P

Truong ban Thu ky

-Tap chi IY lu~n va nghi~p v~

eua Ngan hang Nha nuae Viet NamNam tha 51 bull So 1 + 2 nam 2003

Tau soan 13A De LQThonh Hii N6iFo)84-41 5113383 E-mQil tcnhhnvnnvn

~pound~~ngva dinhhLfCfngICfnIf M~ tieu Va cae chtieu chu yeu ala nan 2003 1bull Tran Minh Tuan NHNN Vi$ Nam danh ga cao strd6ng fiJp aJa cae 16mVc tai chinh quec le va cae Tem nuoc ngl3i ~i11$1Nam 2G TS Nguyen Van GiilU 10 namxay dlJllgva phattnen COngooan Ngtmhang V~I Nam 3bull TS Nguy~n Dinh Ty lInh hinh heal OO1gTap chi Ngan hang rom 2002va dnh hlJdng nhi$m ~ narn 2003 8bull HaDan HucmM9t va suy nghf ve nganh Ngan hang va qua mnhdarn phangia nhap INTO 10bull VOPhLfdng Lien C61gtac quim Ii ngJ9i h6 nam 2002 va dinh hUOngnam2003 12bull TnJc1ngDinh Song Kiem sOOtkiem toan rxlib9 NHNN kel qua hOld(gtng nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 15G TS Trinh Ng9c Khanh Quan h~ lao 09n9 lrang NHTM NM nUDekhi Lu$l sua obi bo sung B9 lu$1 Lao 09n9 co hi~u Ilfc 208 VO Cong Khanh Suy nghTve giai phapkhae ph~c Ion lltIinang caochallu~ng ho oQng khoa h9C eong ngh~ ngan hang 26bull 10 nh6rn Slf ki~n noi b~f trang hO109n9 ngan hang nam 2002 28

-gaB~~~bull TS Ph~m Thanh Binh Khai qual ve tinh hinh holtt09n9 eua caeTCTD co von nuae ngoai lltIiVi~1 Nam trong nam 2002 30bull TS Phm Huy Hung Ho1 d(gtng kinh doanh nam 2002 va dnhhuang m~c tieu nam 2003 eua NHCTVN 32bull Nguyen PhllOc Hoa Ngan hang PMt trJen nM dong bang s6ngCtiu Long - Ket qua hoat dong nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 35bull TS Mai S~n Hol d909 thanh loan ngan hang nam 2002 Kel quava djnh huang hoan thi~n 37bull Nguyen Th Thdm M9t s6 y kien ve qulm Iy ngoi hoi eua NHNNViet Nam 39bull TS Dinh Th Dien Hong NhCfng van de d~l ra eho ho1 d9n9 ellacae NHTM trang kinh doanh chung khoan a Vi~l Nam hi~n nay 42bull TS Nguyen Dae Hung Nhin J~i eong lac quan Iy ngoltlihoi va dienbien Ih lrudng ngo9i t~ lrong nam 2002 47bull IS Ph an Van Tinh Mil s6 van de ve enh tranh ella cae NHTMIrong dieu ki~n hii nh~p 50bull Le Van Xuan Mil so y kien ve thanh Ira ngatl hang gop phannghieOcUu bo sung sua doi Lu~t Ngan hang Nha nlfOe lrong thOigian~ 54bull TS Nguyen Van Tien Quyen Chltl0lien Iq va kh~ nang ap dynga Vi$l Nam 56bull Nguyen Van DOng NHTM Thanh ph6 H6 Chf Minh Irong qua

Irinh qmh lranh va phallnen 59

bull Nguyen Van PhUdng San them ve d9i di$n dvqc uy quyen clla

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~77~~~yeng~~~~~~~~g~~~~~~Jg~gibull ThS Nguy1n Dinh LUJ He thong OTDNO qua han 2niimwngc6chan chinh thea Chi lh[ 57 eGa89 Chfnh 76Cl ThS pound)oan Van Tharig lhlfC hiGnb3odam h~nYay d6i va cae n6nglam lrvang vay von ngfm hang _ _ 79

[_LJJ~4~~~~~w~EH~nmti$i=I1ife TS pound)0 Th Thuy San ve co phan hoa doanh nghi$p Nha nubc v6i

Ih trLlang chung khoan 6 Vi~l Nam _ 82G T~nh Th Ng9C Lan ThlfCtI9ng va giai phap ve vOncho cbanh nghi~p vUava nhOtren ltla ban Ha Nc 84bull Ha Thanh Ve vi~e gop v6n dieu r~ cho Ouy Sao lanh tin dyng 86

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eua Ngan hang Nha nuae Viet NamNam tha 51 bull So 1 + 2 nam 2003

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~pound~~ngva dinhhLfCfngICfnIf M~ tieu Va cae chtieu chu yeu ala nan 2003 1bull Tran Minh Tuan NHNN Vi$ Nam danh ga cao strd6ng fiJp aJa cae 16mVc tai chinh quec le va cae Tem nuoc ngl3i ~i11$1Nam 2G TS Nguyen Van GiilU 10 namxay dlJllgva phattnen COngooan Ngtmhang V~I Nam 3bull TS Nguy~n Dinh Ty lInh hinh heal OO1gTap chi Ngan hang rom 2002va dnh hlJdng nhi$m ~ narn 2003 8bull HaDan HucmM9t va suy nghf ve nganh Ngan hang va qua mnhdarn phangia nhap INTO 10bull VOPhLfdng Lien C61gtac quim Ii ngJ9i h6 nam 2002 va dinh hUOngnam2003 12bull TnJc1ngDinh Song Kiem sOOtkiem toan rxlib9 NHNN kel qua hOld(gtng nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 15G TS Trinh Ng9c Khanh Quan h~ lao 09n9 lrang NHTM NM nUDekhi Lu$l sua obi bo sung B9 lu$1 Lao 09n9 co hi~u Ilfc 208 VO Cong Khanh Suy nghTve giai phapkhae ph~c Ion lltIinang caochallu~ng ho oQng khoa h9C eong ngh~ ngan hang 26bull 10 nh6rn Slf ki~n noi b~f trang hO109n9 ngan hang nam 2002 28

-gaB~~~bull TS Ph~m Thanh Binh Khai qual ve tinh hinh holtt09n9 eua caeTCTD co von nuae ngoai lltIiVi~1 Nam trong nam 2002 30bull TS Phm Huy Hung Ho1 d(gtng kinh doanh nam 2002 va dnhhuang m~c tieu nam 2003 eua NHCTVN 32bull Nguyen PhllOc Hoa Ngan hang PMt trJen nM dong bang s6ngCtiu Long - Ket qua hoat dong nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 35bull TS Mai S~n Hol d909 thanh loan ngan hang nam 2002 Kel quava djnh huang hoan thi~n 37bull Nguyen Th Thdm M9t s6 y kien ve qulm Iy ngoi hoi eua NHNNViet Nam 39bull TS Dinh Th Dien Hong NhCfng van de d~l ra eho ho1 d9n9 ellacae NHTM trang kinh doanh chung khoan a Vi~l Nam hi~n nay 42bull TS Nguyen Dae Hung Nhin J~i eong lac quan Iy ngoltlihoi va dienbien Ih lrudng ngo9i t~ lrong nam 2002 47bull IS Ph an Van Tinh Mil s6 van de ve enh tranh ella cae NHTMIrong dieu ki~n hii nh~p 50bull Le Van Xuan Mil so y kien ve thanh Ira ngatl hang gop phannghieOcUu bo sung sua doi Lu~t Ngan hang Nha nlfOe lrong thOigian~ 54bull TS Nguyen Van Tien Quyen Chltl0lien Iq va kh~ nang ap dynga Vi$l Nam 56bull Nguyen Van DOng NHTM Thanh ph6 H6 Chf Minh Irong qua

Irinh qmh lranh va phallnen 59

bull Nguyen Van PhUdng San them ve d9i di$n dvqc uy quyen clla

NHTM 61o Nguyen Th Kim Nhung Giai phap rna r6lg liil d~ng nang nghi~pva nong thon vung dong bang s6ng Hong 61bull va Phuc Thai Ban Ihem ve m9t 56 dieu k$n de nang cao hi~uqua ho1 ding eGa NHTM 68o ThS LlfU TlllJY Mai Kiem loan nQi bt - M9i so van de Irong vi~cbo sung sua doi quy ehe _ 70e Nguyen Mnh Ton Ngan hang Ngoi lhuang Viet Nam - Co hQiva Ihach lhue - 72bull Hal Thanh Ve Ihte lring hot d919 ngan hang iren cia ban t1nhNam Djnh Irong nam qua 75

~77~~~yeng~~~~~~~~g~~~~~~Jg~gibull ThS Nguy1n Dinh LUJ He thong OTDNO qua han 2niimwngc6chan chinh thea Chi lh[ 57 eGa89 Chfnh 76Cl ThS pound)oan Van Tharig lhlfC hiGnb3odam h~nYay d6i va cae n6nglam lrvang vay von ngfm hang _ _ 79

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Ih trLlang chung khoan 6 Vi~l Nam _ 82G T~nh Th Ng9C Lan ThlfCtI9ng va giai phap ve vOncho cbanh nghi~p vUava nhOtren ltla ban Ha Nc 84bull Ha Thanh Ve vi~e gop v6n dieu r~ cho Ouy Sao lanh tin dyng 86

lt ~~ iiripoundI~~i~~~~~I~E~~g~~iS~~r~~~lbull TS Nguyen Hong Sdn Taj ehinh - lien I~ the giClinam 2002NhCfng st kien noi b$t 88bull Nguyen Th[ Kim Oanh Van de von dlf In lrong ho91 09n9 baahiem lien gUi _ 93bull va Chinh Thanh Ira ngan hang ( m9t so nLlDeChau Au rang lienlrinh cai t6 va gia nh~p EU 95

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Dj~n thoi - Phong Ke-toan-T6ng h~p~Tri Ill (84-4) 5113384- Ban Bien t~p f84-41 5113379-nun Thlfky (84-4) 5113378

Gi1yphep xutt ban 56 59jGP-BVHTTIn t1ii Nhit in Khoa h~lC va C6ng ngh~

TS Nguyen poundlinh TVTSfllnh Th Oien HongTS Nguyen poundlac HungTS Nguyen poundllnh Trung

T6ng bien hipPh6 t6ng bifn t9P

Truong ban Thu ky

-Tap chi IY lu~n va nghi~p v~

eua Ngan hang Nha nuae Viet NamNam tha 51 bull So 1 + 2 nam 2003

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~pound~~ngva dinhhLfCfngICfnIf M~ tieu Va cae chtieu chu yeu ala nan 2003 1bull Tran Minh Tuan NHNN Vi$ Nam danh ga cao strd6ng fiJp aJa cae 16mVc tai chinh quec le va cae Tem nuoc ngl3i ~i11$1Nam 2G TS Nguyen Van GiilU 10 namxay dlJllgva phattnen COngooan Ngtmhang V~I Nam 3bull TS Nguy~n Dinh Ty lInh hinh heal OO1gTap chi Ngan hang rom 2002va dnh hlJdng nhi$m ~ narn 2003 8bull HaDan HucmM9t va suy nghf ve nganh Ngan hang va qua mnhdarn phangia nhap INTO 10bull VOPhLfdng Lien C61gtac quim Ii ngJ9i h6 nam 2002 va dinh hUOngnam2003 12bull TnJc1ngDinh Song Kiem sOOtkiem toan rxlib9 NHNN kel qua hOld(gtng nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 15G TS Trinh Ng9c Khanh Quan h~ lao 09n9 lrang NHTM NM nUDekhi Lu$l sua obi bo sung B9 lu$1 Lao 09n9 co hi~u Ilfc 208 VO Cong Khanh Suy nghTve giai phapkhae ph~c Ion lltIinang caochallu~ng ho oQng khoa h9C eong ngh~ ngan hang 26bull 10 nh6rn Slf ki~n noi b~f trang hO109n9 ngan hang nam 2002 28

-gaB~~~bull TS Ph~m Thanh Binh Khai qual ve tinh hinh holtt09n9 eua caeTCTD co von nuae ngoai lltIiVi~1 Nam trong nam 2002 30bull TS Phm Huy Hung Ho1 d(gtng kinh doanh nam 2002 va dnhhuang m~c tieu nam 2003 eua NHCTVN 32bull Nguyen PhllOc Hoa Ngan hang PMt trJen nM dong bang s6ngCtiu Long - Ket qua hoat dong nam 2002 va dinh huang nam 2003 35bull TS Mai S~n Hol d909 thanh loan ngan hang nam 2002 Kel quava djnh huang hoan thi~n 37bull Nguyen Th Thdm M9t s6 y kien ve qulm Iy ngoi hoi eua NHNNViet Nam 39bull TS Dinh Th Dien Hong NhCfng van de d~l ra eho ho1 d9n9 ellacae NHTM trang kinh doanh chung khoan a Vi~l Nam hi~n nay 42bull TS Nguyen Dae Hung Nhin J~i eong lac quan Iy ngoltlihoi va dienbien Ih lrudng ngo9i t~ lrong nam 2002 47bull IS Ph an Van Tinh Mil s6 van de ve enh tranh ella cae NHTMIrong dieu ki~n hii nh~p 50bull Le Van Xuan Mil so y kien ve thanh Ira ngatl hang gop phannghieOcUu bo sung sua doi Lu~t Ngan hang Nha nlfOe lrong thOigian~ 54bull TS Nguyen Van Tien Quyen Chltl0lien Iq va kh~ nang ap dynga Vi$l Nam 56bull Nguyen Van DOng NHTM Thanh ph6 H6 Chf Minh Irong qua

Irinh qmh lranh va phallnen 59

bull Nguyen Van PhUdng San them ve d9i di$n dvqc uy quyen clla

NHTM 61o Nguyen Th Kim Nhung Giai phap rna r6lg liil d~ng nang nghi~pva nong thon vung dong bang s6ng Hong 61bull va Phuc Thai Ban Ihem ve m9t 56 dieu k$n de nang cao hi~uqua ho1 ding eGa NHTM 68o ThS LlfU TlllJY Mai Kiem loan nQi bt - M9i so van de Irong vi~cbo sung sua doi quy ehe _ 70e Nguyen Mnh Ton Ngan hang Ngoi lhuang Viet Nam - Co hQiva Ihach lhue - 72bull Hal Thanh Ve Ihte lring hot d919 ngan hang iren cia ban t1nhNam Djnh Irong nam qua 75

~77~~~yeng~~~~~~~~g~~~~~~Jg~gibull ThS Nguy1n Dinh LUJ He thong OTDNO qua han 2niimwngc6chan chinh thea Chi lh[ 57 eGa89 Chfnh 76Cl ThS pound)oan Van Tharig lhlfC hiGnb3odam h~nYay d6i va cae n6nglam lrvang vay von ngfm hang _ _ 79

[_LJJ~4~~~~~w~EH~nmti$i=I1ife TS pound)0 Th Thuy San ve co phan hoa doanh nghi$p Nha nubc v6i

Ih trLlang chung khoan 6 Vi~l Nam _ 82G T~nh Th Ng9C Lan ThlfCtI9ng va giai phap ve vOncho cbanh nghi~p vUava nhOtren ltla ban Ha Nc 84bull Ha Thanh Ve vi~e gop v6n dieu r~ cho Ouy Sao lanh tin dyng 86

lt ~~ iiripoundI~~i~~~~~I~E~~g~~iS~~r~~~lbull TS Nguyen Hong Sdn Taj ehinh - lien I~ the giClinam 2002NhCfng st kien noi b$t 88bull Nguyen Th[ Kim Oanh Van de von dlf In lrong ho91 09n9 baahiem lien gUi _ 93bull va Chinh Thanh Ira ngan hang ( m9t so nLlDeChau Au rang lienlrinh cai t6 va gia nh~p EU 95

_~~[i~~aii29 Nguyen Ouy Lg Quy ngoltlit~dc bi$l ~HoltldQng ngan harlgngoi h6i dc bi~l ph~c vll chi vi$n chien IrlIang (19651975) 96~ Le Sa T~o Ti$crung 102GI Ph~m Slf Ke chuy$n Chuyen giay bc Ngan hang tli Vi$ Sac veK~4 1mI) Tho cau dui tet

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lai sim rui ro S8 khien cho chi so kinh toOda khien eho cac thi trLlongtrLlong chOng khoan rna tac d6ng S8khac nhau 0 cac nLloc khac nhau chenh lech loi Wc Irai plli8u cua cac chung khoan tuy giam sui manhTac d9ng nay se xay ra manh nhat 0 nLloc nay gia tang nhLlng van kh6ng bi roi vao IinhAnh va My noi dLlOCdac trLlng boi sLl Nham on dinh thi trLlong va trang h6n loan hay sup dotich t~ von co phieu cao ty lrang cac chong lai nhUng tae d6ng tieu cLlc poundJola My giam giah6 gia dinh nam giU co phieu Ion va eea sLl giam sut lrang gia co phieu Trong nam 2002 cung voi sLlsuitai chinh cho cac c6ng ty chu yeu doi voi nen kinh toOChinh phu cae giam manh cua gia eO phieu trendLl9c thLlc hien Ih6ng qua viee phat nLloec6ng nghi$p ehu chat dCbi$1 cae thl trLlong chUng khoan ehu chathanh co phieu NgLlOcIi nhUng tae la Chinh phu My da tien hanh m91 the giol la sV giam gia cua 861a Myd9ng nay se nh~ hon 0 Lien minh 10t cac eai each trong hot d6ng so voi Euro va Yen Nhat Ban Elieu

Bang 2 Nhiltlg VII be b6 tai chinh va anh huong cua no tOi gia cophilfu cong ty 6My thOi ky 2001-2002

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Til f I 784 TonggiamdocdieuhanhDennisKozlowskitu chUcsaukhi biyeo n erna IDna buoc tai tron thue

Nguon Thomson Datastream The Economist----- __---------_----_ _--------------------------------T~J)en NcANIliNG- 661f-2 N112003 89

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tellde thang 42002 bl thu hut balmLtc nang suat lao dong cao thitrLlangchLtngkhoan lien tuc gia tangcOng nhLl sLl vling manh cua 80laMy tren thi IrLlangqu6c te trang b6icanh nen kinh tethe gidi dang c6nhieu bat on CaG nha dau tLf nuoengoai deu cha rang ty suat loi Wc dMy cao han so vai d chElU Au vaNhat Ban Quan niem nay da khlencho dong von nLiOC ngoai lien tlIC dovao My Dong von nay da tang tLrmLte 1108 ty USD nam 1991 lenden 8955 ty USD nam 2001 Trangd6 dau tLl trLlc tiep nLlGengoai datang tLr mLte232 ty USD len aen158 ty USD dau tLl gian tiep cOngda tang tLrmLtc575 ty USD len aen5403 ty USD Ket qua la tllam hutcan can tai khoan yang lai luan c6dLlde nguon tal tra va flola My dalien luc vUnggiil

Tuy nhien nhLl da phan tieh btren nhling vu be boi tai chinh veislJ slJpdo cua mQt 109t cae cong tyvon van dLf9C coi 18 tien tien va hungmanh nhat nLldeMy da keo thea sLlsuy glam clla thi trLlong chLtngkhoan (xem bang 1) Hau qua la tysuat 19itUc a My glam va cac nhadau tLl bat dau thay doi quan nlemcua minh flieu d6 oa khien Cl10dOl1gvon nLldcngoai do vao My tuvan tang nhLlng da bat dau suygiam dau tLl nLlGengoai vao My dagiam tLrmLtc382 ty USD VilO nam2001 xuong can 3591 ty USD vaoquI 1-2002 trang d6 dau tLl cophieu da glam tLr400 ty USD xuongcan 2586 ty USD dau tLl trLlc tiepnLloc ngoa eOng giam tLr 1308 tyxuong c6n 1028 ty USD Hdn thenlia xu hLldnggiam sut d6 Ii dangc6 nhllng dau hieu gia tang St1giam gia cua fl61a My da philn anhnhUngthay dol kEltren

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ThO hai nam 2001 tl1amhut cimcan tai khoan vang lai cua My dadatto mLtc gan 4 GDP Nam 2002can so nay la 46 va thea dLl baacua IMF cung voi sLl phuc hoi cuanen kinh te nay mLtc tham hut sedat tal 47 GDP vaa nam 2003gan tOimLtcnguy hiem (5 GDP)flieu nay dong nghTavoi viee nguycO dieu chlnh d(gttbien co the S8 xuathien voi viee fl61a My c6 the se bjmat gia nhanh va manh chi trongm6t thai gian ngan Tham hut tai

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nay da di~n ra tCrthang 42002 batchap nhllng tin Wc tot lanh ve toe d(gtphue hoi tang trLlang cao cua nenkinh te My trang quI I nam 2002(56 tinh thea nam)

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eOng nhLl cua cac chuan mLlc ke ehau Au (tru Anh) va Nhat Blm do efieu liel Ihl IrLlong chung khoantoan tinh cong khai tinh hleu qua tam quan lrong Ion hcmcua he thong cOngnhLl hoat dong ke loan va kiemva tinh lien tuc cua cac khuon kho ngan hang doi voi nhUng nLlocd6 loan cong Iy Ch~ng han ngaychinh sach cOngnhLlphap luat 0 cae Mac du sLl lien kel kinh toOeao 3072002 Tong thong My G Bushnen kinh toOIhi trLlong moi noi) poundlieu giua cac mroc dLloi tac dong cLla da ky B9 luat ve cai cach ke loannay den ILlot n6 lal khien cho long qua Irinh toan Gilu hoa da khien cho cong ty eong va Luat Baa h6 dau IIItin cua ho dol voi thi trLlong bi Ion sV giilln sut cua gia co phieu tren 2002 nham thay the eho sLl IV dieuthLlong va tinh S9 rui ro (risk aver- cae thi trLIong chung khoan chu ehot liel ke toan dLloi sLl giam sal congsian) cua ho bi tang cLlong Ket qua Ihe gioi nhanh ch6ng Ian truyen cong va nham nang cao nhungla gia eO phieu da sut giam nhLl da sang cac thi trLlong moi noi khac chln mLle kiem toan cOng nhLlIrlnh bay 0 tren (nhung nhan to dac dinh cua lung Irach nhiem quan II pound)6ng thoi tren

SLI sut giam manh cua gia co nLlocvan quan Imng tham chi trang th IrLlong chUng khoan New-yorkphieu tren cac thi trLlong chOng mot so trLlong hop d6ng vai tro thay nhieu nguyen tac da dLloc cai tienkhoan chu chat Ihe gioi se c6 nhUng the) nhLlng anh hLlimg cLla sLl giam nham dLla ra cac chuan mLlcnghiemtac dong tieu cLlctOi nen kinh Ie thLlC sui Irang gia co phieu toi cac hoat khac hon doi voi quan II cong ty vathong qua nhieu kenh khae nhau dong kinh Ie IhLle khong Ion bOi vi 0 tinh eong khai cua cac cong ty niemchi phi vay mLlon cua cae ho gia phan Ion cac nLloc dang phal trien yel tren thi IrLlong 0 Anh nhUngdinh va cac c6ng ty se gia tang do Ih IrLlong co phieu thLlong nho nen hLlong dan moi ve cung co sV docgia Iri tai san the chap glam ch phi kinh toOhOt d6ng chu yeu dLla Iren lap cua kiem toan cOng dltOC banvon dol voi cac cong ty lang S8 keo he thong I1ganhang Tuy vay nhung hanh Ngoai ra cuoi nam 2002Iheo sLlgiam sui cua dau tLl cua cai tac d6ng giim tiep IhLlong manh Cuc DLITru Lien Bang My (FED) vacua cac h6 gia dlnh giam S8 khien hon gia co phieu giam thLlong di ngan hang Trung Llong chau Aucho lieu dung giam th6ng qua hieu kem voi lai sual Ihap va dieu nay c6 (ECB) cOng da kip thai cat giam laiOngcua ciii Tuy vay tuy thea muc loi doi voi cac nLloec6 Ih trLlong moi suat Tat ca nhUng bien phap d6d6 phu thu9C cua nen kinh toOvao thi noi mc du sLl bo chay khol nhung cung voi cOcau vUng chac cua nen

lai sim rui ro S8 khien cho chi so kinh toOda khien eho cac thi trLlongtrLlong chOng khoan rna tac d6ng S8khac nhau 0 cac nLloc khac nhau chenh lech loi Wc Irai plli8u cua cac chung khoan tuy giam sui manhTac d9ng nay se xay ra manh nhat 0 nLloc nay gia tang nhLlng van kh6ng bi roi vao IinhAnh va My noi dLlOCdac trLlng boi sLl Nham on dinh thi trLlong va trang h6n loan hay sup dotich t~ von co phieu cao ty lrang cac chong lai nhUng tae d6ng tieu cLlc poundJola My giam giah6 gia dinh nam giU co phieu Ion va eea sLl giam sut lrang gia co phieu Trong nam 2002 cung voi sLlsuitai chinh cho cac c6ng ty chu yeu doi voi nen kinh toOChinh phu cae giam manh cua gia eO phieu trendLl9c thLlc hien Ih6ng qua viee phat nLloec6ng nghi$p ehu chat dCbi$1 cae thl trLlong chUng khoan ehu chathanh co phieu NgLlOcIi nhUng tae la Chinh phu My da tien hanh m91 the giol la sV giam gia cua 861a Myd9ng nay se nh~ hon 0 Lien minh 10t cac eai each trong hot d6ng so voi Euro va Yen Nhat Ban Elieu

Bang 2 Nhiltlg VII be b6 tai chinh va anh huong cua no tOi gia cophilfu cong ty 6My thOi ky 2001-2002

MUcglamcuaQiac6 phieutrongthOiky 0101200126162002()999 poundJ~ddn xin phasanvi nhunggianI~nketoan banquanIyeaocap tll chUc~~~aI~i~~~i~i====~~r~-=Ii~~o~~j~-ehiiE~[oE0ig9~a=i~nj~i~~n==_--------

Adelphia 991 D~ddnin phasanvi dachocaegiamdocvay ngoaibangket__C_orn_rn-nc~tion~________ to~nt_6_9Bi~rn_cl~cdi~~_~~n_tll~I1t______ _P S t 958 UybanchUllgkhoan(SEC)dleutrave nghi~pv~ ketoan longeregnne ys em lamdoce1ieuhanhva iamdoc tai chinh tu chUc___ ______________ _ g~------------------ B __ _

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W rtdC 938Giamdoc tai chinhbi sathai do chedau10bienbaD10thanh lai

o om 38tUSD-__-----------_-__-------------__----------__---- _--------~----_ ___------__-------------------y-_--_-__---------__------_ ___-_D 889 SECdieutra venghi~pv~ ketoan tonggiamdoce1ieuhanhtllynegy ehllc

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Til f I 784 TonggiamdocdieuhanhDennisKozlowskitu chUcsaukhi biyeo n erna IDna buoc tai tron thue

Nguon Thomson Datastream The Economist----- __---------_----_ _--------------------------------T~J)en NcANIliNG- 661f-2 N112003 89

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tellde thang 42002 bl thu hut balmLtc nang suat lao dong cao thitrLlangchLtngkhoan lien tuc gia tangcOng nhLl sLl vling manh cua 80laMy tren thi IrLlangqu6c te trang b6icanh nen kinh tethe gidi dang c6nhieu bat on CaG nha dau tLf nuoengoai deu cha rang ty suat loi Wc dMy cao han so vai d chElU Au vaNhat Ban Quan niem nay da khlencho dong von nLiOC ngoai lien tlIC dovao My Dong von nay da tang tLrmLte 1108 ty USD nam 1991 lenden 8955 ty USD nam 2001 Trangd6 dau tLl trLlc tiep nLlGengoai datang tLr mLte232 ty USD len aen158 ty USD dau tLl gian tiep cOngda tang tLrmLtc575 ty USD len aen5403 ty USD Ket qua la tllam hutcan can tai khoan yang lai luan c6dLlde nguon tal tra va flola My dalien luc vUnggiil

Tuy nhien nhLl da phan tieh btren nhling vu be boi tai chinh veislJ slJpdo cua mQt 109t cae cong tyvon van dLf9C coi 18 tien tien va hungmanh nhat nLldeMy da keo thea sLlsuy glam clla thi trLlong chLtngkhoan (xem bang 1) Hau qua la tysuat 19itUc a My glam va cac nhadau tLl bat dau thay doi quan nlemcua minh flieu d6 oa khien Cl10dOl1gvon nLldcngoai do vao My tuvan tang nhLlng da bat dau suygiam dau tLl nLlGengoai vao My dagiam tLrmLtc382 ty USD VilO nam2001 xuong can 3591 ty USD vaoquI 1-2002 trang d6 dau tLl cophieu da glam tLr400 ty USD xuongcan 2586 ty USD dau tLl trLlc tiepnLloc ngoa eOng giam tLr 1308 tyxuong c6n 1028 ty USD Hdn thenlia xu hLldnggiam sut d6 Ii dangc6 nhllng dau hieu gia tang St1giam gia cua fl61a My da philn anhnhUngthay dol kEltren

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ThO hai nam 2001 tl1amhut cimcan tai khoan vang lai cua My dadatto mLtc gan 4 GDP Nam 2002can so nay la 46 va thea dLl baacua IMF cung voi sLl phuc hoi cuanen kinh te nay mLtc tham hut sedat tal 47 GDP vaa nam 2003gan tOimLtcnguy hiem (5 GDP)flieu nay dong nghTavoi viee nguycO dieu chlnh d(gttbien co the S8 xuathien voi viee fl61a My c6 the se bjmat gia nhanh va manh chi trongm6t thai gian ngan Tham hut tai

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nay da di~n ra tCrthang 42002 batchap nhllng tin Wc tot lanh ve toe d(gtphue hoi tang trLlang cao cua nenkinh te My trang quI I nam 2002(56 tinh thea nam)

Xet tren giac d6 ty gia hoi doaidanh nghTa thea ty trang thLldngmi vao ngay 22112002 so vdi31122001 fl61a My da glam 74chi trang vong 3 thang ke tCrcuoithang 42002 dong tien nay da mattdi 54 gia trl (xem do thl 1)

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Nham thue day sV ph~c hoi kinhte va 5n dlnh thl trllong chungkhoan ngay 6112002 FED da catgiam lal suat co ban to mue 175xuong con 125 mue thap nhattrang vong han 40 nam qua ke tonam 1960 Mit thimg sau d6 ngay5112002 Ngan hang Trung Vangchau Au eOng da cat giam cae laisual ehu ehot eua minh lai suat taicap von to mue 325 xuong con275 lai suat tlen gLri to mue225 xuong con 175 va lai suateho vay to mue 425 xuong con375 M61so cae ngan hang TrungVang khae nhv ngan hang Trungvong Thuy poundlIen 8an Mach eOngcat glam lal suat ehu dao eua mlnhTrang khi quyel dinh cat giam laisuat eua FED dVae colla kha balngo (ca ve ehieu hvong Ian mue d6cal giam) thi quyet dinh clla ECB lai

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chinh tf trL10C bau ev tong thongBraxin di3 luan dung truae nguy covB no trang nam 2002 voi nhlinghau qua tieu cVc tol Ihi IrVong chungkhoan gia tri doi ngoai cua dongtien nol dia eOng nhv tang trvongklnh teo Tuy nhiE vlee theo du5inhling ehlnh saeh kinh te VImo lanhmanh che do ty gia hoi doai linhho he thong tai ehlnh-ngan hangvling ehae eOng voi sV tra giup kipthol cua eong dong quoc te da giupcho nvoc nay kh6ng bi reil vim Unhtranh vo no

COng glong nhv khung hoang laiehinh-lien t$ chau A 1997-1998khung hoang tai ehlnh-tien te 0achentina va nguy cd va 09 cuaBraxin trang nam 2002 cho Ihaynhvng rui fO va bat on eua n9 ntJocngoal qua muc (cho dO d6 la no tvnhan hay no e6ng e6ng) cOng nhvtam quan tn~mg cua vi$c Ita ch9nche d6 ty gla hoi doai phu hltlpHanIhe nlia tv do hoa kinh te chI la dieukiim can 8e c6 the phat trien nhanhva ben vLing can co co cau kinh telinh hoat slf dleu hanh tot cua Chinhphu chlnh tri 5n dlnh va he thongluat phap phO hop nghiem mlnh

Lai sual giam liii muc ky I~c dcae nuoe cong nghi~p chll chot

Nham thue day sV ph~c hoi kinhte va 5n dlnh thl trllong chungkhoan ngay 6112002 FED da catgiam lal suat co ban to mue 175xuong con 125 mue thap nhattrang vong han 40 nam qua ke tonam 1960 Mit thimg sau d6 ngay5112002 Ngan hang Trung Vangchau Au eOng da cat giam cae laisual ehu ehot eua minh lai suat taicap von to mue 325 xuong con275 lai suat tlen gLri to mue225 xuong con 175 va lai suateho vay to mue 425 xuong con375 M61so cae ngan hang TrungVang khae nhv ngan hang Trungvong Thuy poundlIen 8an Mach eOngcat glam lal suat ehu dao eua mlnhTrang khi quyel dinh cat giam laisuat eua FED dVae colla kha balngo (ca ve ehieu hvong Ian mue d6cal giam) thi quyet dinh clla ECB lai

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