®

DoD OSINT Program:A Speculative Review

Robert David Steele

Founder, USMC Intelligence Command

Founder, OSS Network

®

Federal MarketplaceUS Spends Today: $250MNeeds to Spend: $1.5BOther Governments Should Spend an Equal Amount.TOTAL: $3B/Year

State & Local Marketplace50 States Spend Today: $0Need to Spend: $1.5B in HS funds ($30M/state) for Community Intelligence Centers/networksOthers should follow along.TOTAL: $3B/Year

Corporate MarketplaceMultinationals Today: $12-15B• Mostly “BI” or IT• Mediocre CI or external à la carte small stuffSmall Business Today: $1BShould Increase by 10XTOTAL: $100B/Year

Associational MarketplaceUN, Red Cross, Amnesty International, others: $100MNeed to Spend: $1B+Religions, Clans, and Citizen Intelligence are the Wild Cards--potential for Google customers alone is $8B on a bell curve from $5 to $5000 a year, with $500 as the average.

The OSINT Marketplace

®

OSINT Matters I

• "By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country--the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations."

Clausewitz, On War, 1832

Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know.

®

What’s on the other side of the hill?

®

All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing what was at the other side of the hill”.

Duke of Wellington quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884)

OSINT Matters II

®®

Strategic Planning

Operational Coordination

Tactical Employment

Acquisition Design

• History

• Context

• Current Awareness

• Key Personalities/Motivators

• Imagery & Image Maps

• Translation Support

• Strategic Generalizations

• Critical Technologies

OSINT Matters III

This is what got General Schoomaker’s attention.

®

Brief History of OSINT

• Diplomats diminished• FBIS in WW II• FBIS going, going….• FRD on the margin• ER&A cut, cut, cut• We do secrets• “On your own time…”• “Use the Internet”

®

USMC Intelligence Experience

• 1988 MCIC start-up• $10M on DODIIS• Learned 90% raw info

– Not secret– Not online– Not in English– Not available from DC

• No DoD focal point• No knowledge base

®

US IC Response

• HPSCI Forced the Issue in 1992

• FBIS claimed the turf and promptly blew it

• COSPO created, DIA led & screwed it up

• Markowitz tried hard, Dempsey blocked

• Tenet June 1997 slam

®

Meanwhile….

• 1994 Steve Emerson got it right on jihad within the US

• 1996 Yossef Bodansky got it right on BL’s declaration of war

• 1997 Pete Schoomaker established SOCOM OSINT

®

DoD OSINT Today

• OSD POC Died• DIA stopped OSINT• No DoD Doctrine• No DoD Budget• CINCS & Services &

Agencies spending around $25M in complete disorder & mostly on data mining

®

Data Mining is not Data Capture

• Spending $250M on data mining, and less than $10M on open source data capture, is not cool.

• 80% of what we need is not available to FBIS or anyone else as we are now unled, un- funded, and untrained.

Forget about the letter, which requires reading the language,I’ve got the stamp…so pretty!

®

Meanwhile….

• 2003 SecDef quotes Bin Laden training manual as saying Al Qaeda gets 80% of its intelligence from OSINT but…

• Ramps up OPSEC (good) but does not establish DoD OSINT

®

Good News I

• JWAC $14M• SOCOM OSINT $1M+• Army OSINT Lab $3M

(U. New Mexico)• PACOM VIC (J-8)

surviving J-2 attacks• EUCOM, other CINCs

spending $500K each

®

Good News II

• Pete Dorn did some good on the SSCI– $4.5M to Kansas

– $5.5M to JFCOM

• NSA AIRIES $10M?• CIA/DI $2M?• OMB Code M320• SASC Thinking…

®

Good News III

• Dr. Cambone gets it.• 27 Feb 03 Exchange

with Senator Warner• “Six Points Speech”

– Universal coverage– Strategic warning– Agile, flexible– Intelligent intelligence– Real-time, real-world– “Exquisite intelligence”

®

Proposed DoD OSINT Program• $125M start year

• $1.5B FOC by 2010

• Corporations go on to:– $150B/yr Corporate BI

– $15B/yr Small Business BI

– $8B/yr Google a la carte

– $1.5B/yr Homeland Security

– $1.5B/yr Foreign HS

– $1B+/yr UN/NGO

• It all starts with DoD…..

®

World War III Players

H o m o S ap ie ns vs. B ac te ria G o ve rn m e nts vs. G a n gs C itize ns vs . C o rp ora tio ns

E d uca tio n vs . Ca tas trop heBacteria

Nation-States

Gangs

Private Sector

Citizens

Mother EarthWater-Air-Green

®

New Craft of Intelligence

I

Lessons of History

II

Global Coverage

III

National Intelligence

IV

Spies & Secrecy

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.

Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

®

Baker’s Dozen Approach

• Digital History Project• NGO Data Warehouse• Global Coverage

Virtual International Task Forces

• Generic Open Source Intelligence Training (for all seven tribes)

• JFCOM Lead to Create Generic Analytic Tool-Kit

• Five Regional OSINT Centers (Multi-National)

• International Trade Center• Digital Marshall Plan

(also JFCOM/ATC lead)• University of the Republic

®

Digital History Project

• Digital History Project will, within one year, digitize essential Chinese & Islamic pages, and such other foreign language historical, political, economic, social, and related information, as needed to create a foundation for rapidly visualizing and modeling historical information relevant to current and projected threats.

$5M Yr 1

®

NGO Data Warehouse

• NGO Data Warehouse and Network will provide free storage and network access to all NGOs, and will in cooperation with the Pearson Peacekeeping Center in Canada, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and selected lead elements of the NGO community, put vital NGO “local knowledge” online for US use.

$10M Yr 1

®

Global Coverage Teams

• Global Coverage “Virtual International Task Forces” will establish a series of topical task forces to manage global force protection monitoring and rapid response surge assessments. A special emphasis will be placed on long-term topics not qualifying for classified collection and analysis but still vital to national security.

$10M Yr 1

®

Generic OSINT Training• Generic Open Source Intelligence Training

Program will create distance learning modules as well as 4-person MTT to visit every CINC, every ally, every Embassy, every NGO, and key universities as well as key corporations, all of which will be voluntarily integrated into a global information-sharing grid. Early emphasis will be on shared templates for data capture.

$10M Yr 1

®

Generic Analytic Tool-Kit• JFCOM, perhaps building on the Future

Intelligence Collaborative Environment (FICE) will develop a generic multi-media analytic toolkit integrating all eighteen of the functionalities identified in 1985 by the Office of Scientific & Weapons Research. This tool-kit will be readily available to all seven intelligence tribes, internationally.

$10M Yr 1

®

Regional OSINT Centers• Regional multi-national and multi-tribal

OSINT Centers will be established by each of the five area commanders including NORTHCOM. Such centers will fully leverage indigenous allied and coalition partner access to local knowledge that is not digital, and to native language skills not available to US forces.

$50M Yr 1

®

Regional Intelligence Center

O SINTHUM INT

IM INTSIG INT

Deputy for Collectio nAustralia

D igitizatio nT ranslatio n

V isualizatio nAnalytic Suppor t

Deputy for P rocessin gM alaysia

W arnin gEstim ativeCountrie s

Issues

Deputy for AnalysisChin a

Chief of Cente rS ing apore

Deputy for CounterintelligenceJapan

Deputy for Covert ActionThailand

®

International Trade Center• An International Trade Center and Chamber

of Commerce Network will establish a web-based means of connecting and leveraging the local knowledge of all US General Managers stationed overseas, while enhancing US business access to risk and other warning information funded by the DoD OSINT Program.

$5M Yr 1

®

Digital Marshall Plan

• The Digital Marshall Plan, with JFCOM (and ATC in the lead for NATO) will fund the accelerated introduction of Internet connectivity to areas now “dark” for U.S. forces, with a special emphasis on Muslim countries. Abandoned DoD satellite bandwidth will be repurposed to provide free T-3 connectivity where possible.

$10M Yr 1

®

University of the Republic

• The University of the Republic, with a Global Outreach Program, will bring together and educate “cohorts” of promising entry-level, mid-career, and senior-level subject-matter experts from across all seven tribes and across all nations, in this manner creating a multi-generational international SME reserve expert on all topics/countries.

$15M Yr 1

®

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Pol Terror Level 3Imprisonment, executions

Pol Terror Level 4Large numbers, torture

Pol Terror Level 5Entire public, no limits

®

Global Threats to Local Survival

*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

Complex Emergencies32 Countries

Refugees/Displaced66 Countries

Food Security33 Countries

Child Soldiers41 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**

Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**

Corruption Common80 Countries

Censorship Very High62 Countries

®

Four Different Threats to America:Require Four Different Security Approaches

PHYSICAL

STEALTH,

PRECISION

TARGETING

NATURAL

STEALTH,

RANDOM

TARGETING

CYBER -

STEALTH,

DATABASE

TARGETING

IDEO -

STEALTH,

MASS

TARGETING

GUERRILLAWAR

CULTURALWAR

HIGH TECH

BRUTES

(BIG WAR)

LOW TECH

BRUTES

(GANGS)

HIGH TECH

SEERS

(HOME)

LOW TECH

SEERS

(POOR)

MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

POWER BASE

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY

TERRORISMECONOMICWAR

®®

NATO OSINT

®

European Intelligence Network

• Open borders demand regional intelligence

• Decades of lax control over immigration & citizenship demand aggressive policing

• EUROPOL won’t do• Europe has a chance to

do something brilliant

®

New Strategy: 1 + iii:Need better balance within national security.

50% 15% 20% 15%

250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 32B

CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME

Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence

Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol

Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security

1 ii i

Electronic

Reserve

Reserve Environment

Public HealthPeace Navy

®

We Can Do This!

• Lead to the Big Dogs:– Lockheed Martin– Northrop Grumman– Boeing, Booz, etc.

• Help Each Other or Get Out of the Way

• OSINT Professional Association Needed?

• OSINT has arrived.