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© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Presentation for Customer Engagement Summit London
Online Sales to Drive Half of Retail Growth in Western Europe
Michael O’Grady, Principal Forecast Analyst
12th November 2018
We work with business and
technology leaders to develop
customer-obsessed strategies
that drive growth.
3© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
4© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Agenda
› Global eCommerce
› European eCommerce
› Digital and marketplace influence
5© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
What is Global Consumer Technographics?INSIGHTS INTO DIGITAL CONSUMERS TO HELP CLIENTS UNDERSTAND THEIR CUSTOMERS
Consumers and brands across 19 markets:
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
(and Hong Kong)
France
Germany
India
Italy
Japan
Mexico
The Netherlands
Poland
Russia
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
6© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Forecasts are published in different regions of the world according to the following designations across
the four ForecastView packages:
1. E-Commerce
2. Digital Marketing
3. Business Technology
4. Mobile
Global Market Sizing and Projections
7© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
2018 Global eCommerce Forecast ScheduleForecasts Geography QuarterOnline Grocery Forecast Global Q1
Online Marketplace Tracker Global Q2
Online Luxury Goods Forecast Global* Q3
Mobile & Tablet Commerce Forecast US Q1
Online Retail Forecast Canada Q2
Online Retail Forecast US Q2
Business to Business eCommerce US Q2
Digitally Influenced Retail Sales Forecast US Q3
Online Luxury Goods Forecast US Q3
Online Holiday Retail Forecast US Q3
Online Retail Forecast, Update US Q4
Online Retail Forecast E. Europe Q1
Digitally Influenced Retail Sales Forecast EU- 7 Q1
Stores Forecast UK Q1
Online Retail Forecast W. Europe Q2
Online Luxury Goods Forecast EU- 7 Q3
Online Holiday Retail Forecast W. Europe Q3
Mobile & Tablet Commerce Forecast EU- 7 Q3
Online Retail Forecast, Update W. Europe Q4
Online Retail Forecast LATAM Q1
Online Retail Forecast APAC Q4
Brief: Retailers' Options For DM Spending Are Growing US Q1
Brief: eCommerce Impact On Offline Retail (Stores Forecast) UK Q1Brief: Online Grocery Retailing US, EU, Global Q1
Brief: Online Fashion Retailing US, EU, Global Q2
Brief: Click and Collect/BOPIS US & EU- 7 Q4
8© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
trillion
$1128 billion
$34 billion
$494 billion
$2.0the amount spent on RETAIL online in 2017 (in USD)
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Asia
Pacific
$291 billion
Eastern
Europe
$31 billion
13.7% 9.7%5.8%
17.6%
3.1%
Retail online share
Retail online sales
17.5%
12.1% 12.0%17.3%
13.8%
Retail online growth (CAGR 17-22)Source: Forrester Research ForecastView Online Retail Forecasts.
*Global figure comprises 33 countries: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United
States, Canada. Eastern Europe includes Russia, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary
9© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecasts, 2017 To 2022
Significant online buyer growth potential in Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia Pacific
Eastern
Europe
10© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Source: Forrester Research World Online Population Forecast, 2017 To 2022 (Global)
60% of the world population will be online by 2022, Asia drives online population growth
Increase in online
population 2017-2022
11© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Twenty Percent Of All B2C eCommerce Will Be Cross-Border By 2022
https://www.forrester.com/report/CrossBorder+Services+Will+Help+CrossBorder+eCommerce+Reach+627+Billion+By+2022/-/E-RES137902
12© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
https://www.forrester.com/report/CrossBorder+Services+Will+Help+CrossBorder++Reach+627+Billion+By+2022/-/E-RES137902#dialog-1499639202150-dialog
13© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Agenda
› Global eCommerce
› European eCommerce
› Digital and marketplace influence
14© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
https://www.forrester.com/report/Forrester+Data+Report+Online+Retail+Forecast+2016+To+2021+Western+Europe/-/E-RES136982
Online share of retail sales is significantly higher in
the UK
15© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
https://www.forrester.com/report/Forrester+Data+Online+Retail+Forecast+2017+To+2022+Western+Europe+Q4+2017+Update/-/E-RES142133
Grocery, Jewelry, DIY, and Beauty Will See The
Fastest Growth
16© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
By 2020, almost half of retail sales growth in Western Europe will come from online
https://www.forrester.com/report/Forrester+Analytics+Online+Retail+Forecast+2018+To+2023+Western+Europe/-/E-RES144001
Retail
sales
growth
17© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
18© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Agenda
› Global eCommerce
› European eCommerce
› Digital and marketplace influence
19© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Mobile devices will impact 30% of a €2 trillion retail market by 2022
20© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Marketplace Tracker
• A new report that captures eCommerce Gross Merchandising Volume across 11
global marketplaces in 16 countries in Europe, APAC, North America and Latin
America.
Source: ForresterAnalytics Online Marketplaces Tracker, 2015 to 2018 (Global)
21© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Source: Forrester’s Business Technographics®
of global B2C eCommerce occurred via marketplaces in 2017 and this will increase to 67% by 2022.
56%
Source: ForresterAnalytics Online Marketplaces Tracker, 2015 to 2018 (Global)
22© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
https://www.forrester.com/report/Forrester+Analytics+Online+Marketplaces+Tracker+2015+To+2018+Global/-/E-RES143794
Forty eight percent of B2C eCommerce sales came from Amazon, Tmall and JD in 2017
Sales share of the global
online B2C market
23© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Influence of Amazon is prominent in the customer journey
Source: EU-5, Consumer Technographics Europe Retail and Travel H1 Survey, Q1 2017
Base: Online or offline buyers, online survey of 17,500 adults 16+
24© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
https://www.forrester.com/report/Half+Of+B2C+Online+Retail+Spend+Came+From+Marketplaces+In+2016/-/E-RES139231
Free Shipping Drives Amazon Uptake
25© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Base: Online or offline buyers, online survey of 17,500 adults 16+
Source: EU-5, Consumer Technographics Europe Retail and Travel H1 Survey, Q1 2017
https://www.forrester.com/report/Showrooming+Impacts+ThreeQuarters+Of+Online+Sales+In+The+EU7+In+2016/-/E-RES136367
In-store ads
22%
14%
11%
7%
In-Store Visits Play Important Role In The Exploration and Discovery Phase
THREE-
QUARTERS OF
ONLINE SALES
ARE OFFLINE
INFLUENCED