Reducing Risk of Earthquake by Disaster Management Approach

Prof.Dr. Mikdat KADIOĞLUIstanbul Technical UniversityDisaster Management Center

kadioglu@itu.edu.tr

2

Outline

• Introduction

1.Mitigation

2.Preparedness

3.Response

4.Recovery

Districts 39

Area

- Total1,830.92 km²

(706.9 sq mi)

Elevation 100 m (328 ft)

Population (2007)

- Total 11,372,613

- Density6,211/km² (16,086.

4/sq mi)

Istanbul is now a high-

risk megacity

Istanbul had little risks in

1940s

Basic Concept/Definition

Hazard

A hazard is a potentially damaging

physical event, natural phenomenon or

human activity that may cause the loss of

life or injury, property damage, social and

economic disruption or environmental

degradation (UN ISDR, 2004).

5

Hazard:

Fault Lines

Model A Model B

Model C Model D

Hazard:

Distribution of Peak Ground Acceleration : Model C

Key Terms

Vulnerability

• The condition determined by physical,

social, economic and environmental

factors or processes, which increase the

susceptibility of a community to the impact

of hazards (ISDR, 2004).

Vulnerability:

Number of heavily damaged buildings: Model C

Key Terms

Risk

The probability of harmful consequences,

or expected losses (deaths, injuries,

property, livelihoods, economic activity

disrupted or environment damage)

resulting from interactions between natural

or human-induced hazards and vulnerable

conditions (ISDR, 2004).

10

Risk:POSSIBLE DAMAGE AND LOSS ESTIMATION ACCORDING TO IMM – JICA STUDY:

If an earthquake with 7.7 or 7.5 magnitude occurs;

Approximately 3.040.000 household (9.000.000 people) in 750.000

building will be affected!

50.000 - 60.000 heavily damaged buildings,

500.000 - 600.000 homeless people,

70.000 - 90.000 life loss,

120.000 to 130.000 heavily wounded, 400.000 slightly wounded people

1.000 - 2.000 water pipe damages,

30.000 natural gas service box damages,

Rupture at 3%of the electricity lines,

140 million tons of debris,

40 billion US$ economic loss are estimated,

Rescue operations for 1.000.000 people,

330.000 tents.

• Ground Shaking• Surface Faulting• Liquefaction• Aftershocks• Landslides• Avalanches • Mud flows• Tsunami• Floodings• Fires• …

• Lives• Property• Environment• Heritage• Business • Services• Development• …

Rapid and uncontrolled urbanization Inadequate physical living

conditions Inadequate infrastructure Poor planning and control Population growth Environment degradation Inappropriate territorial

occupation and land use Concentration of populations

in disaster sensitive zones Lack of awareness and

education/traning Lack of risk transfer …

In the Case of Earthquake

Disaster Risk Management FrameworkDerived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015

Risk TransferRisk Identification and Assessment

Risk Reduction(Prevention & Mitigation)

Governance and

Organizational Coordination and

Cooperation

Historical hazard data,

analysis and changing

hazard trends

Exposed assets &

vulnerability

Risk quantification

Sectoral planning

Early warning systems

Emergency preparedness

& planning

Catastrophe insurance/

bond markets

Alternative risk transfer

Education, Training and Information and

Knowledge Sharing

Key Terms

Disaster

A serious disruption of the functioning of a

community or a society causing

widespread human, material, economic or

environmental losses which exceed the

ability of the affected community or society

to cope using its own resources (ISDR,

2004).

Disaster Risk Management

• The systematic management of administrative decisions, organization, operational skills and capacities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society and communities to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and related environmental and technological disasters.

• This comprises all forms of activities, including structural and non-structural measures to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse effects of hazards. (ISDR, 2004).

15

Phases of Disaster Management

1

2

34http://www.tuscoema.org/cycle.html

16

1.

• MITIGATION

Mitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

• Structural and non-structural measures

undertaken to limit the adverse impact of

natural hazards, environmental

degradation and technological hazards

(ISDR, 2004).

17

Earthquake Society

Hazards Confronting Vulnerable Communities Cause

Risk

Hazard

(risk assessment) Vulnerability

(societal conditions)

Urban Riks…

19

TRANSFORMATION OF ZEYTINBURNUexisting stock (%90 unauthorized; %90 ground coverage)

20

YAPISAL RİSKLER ve Risklerin Azaltılması, 2006: Y.Doç.Dr. Alper

İLKİ, İTÜ İnşaat Fakültesi Yapı Anabilim Dalı ve İTÜ Afet Yönetim

Merkezi, İTÜ Yapı ve Deprem Mühendisliği Laboratuvarı.

Deprem Oluşan risk!

4. Afetlere Hazırlık ve Kentsel Risk Yönetimi

• Ground Shaking• Surface Faulting• Liquefaction• Aftershocks• Landslides• Avalanches • Mud flows• Tsunami• Floodings• Fires• …

• Lives• Property• Environment• Heritage• Business • Services• Development• …

Rapid and uncontrolled urbanization Inadequate physical living

conditions Inadequate infrastructure Poor planning and control Population growth Environment degradation Inappropriate territorial

occupation and land use Concentration of populations

in disaster sensitive zones Lack of awareness and

education/traning Lack of risk transfer …

In the Case of Earthquake

22

Extreme

Weather

Events

Society

Less Risk

Hazard

(risk assessment)

Vulnerability

(societal conditions)

Prevention

• Activities to provide outright avoidance of

the adverse impact of hazards and the

means to minimize related environmental,

technological and biological disasters

(ISDR, 2004).

Risk Reduction

• Hazard reduction (prevention):

– take action to reduce probability of loss

(Ex: nonsmokers, dead bolts)

• Loss reduction (mitigation):

– reduces severity when there is a loss.

(Ex: smoke alarms, fire extinguishers

and insurance)

Disaster Risk Reduction?

• The conceptual framework of elements

considered with the possibilities to minimize

vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout

a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit

(mitigation and preparedness) the adverse

impacts of hazards, within the broad context

of sustainable development (ISDR, 2004).

Disaster Risk Reduction

Measures

There are five categories of Disaster Risk

Reduction measures:

• Physical measures

• Socio-economic measures

• Environmental measures

• Management and institutional measures

• Post disaster measures

27

Education is key in mitigation

and preparedness...

• “…although knowledge does not

guarantee power over natural catastrophe,

it is a prime requisite of disaster

prevention.” (Alexander 2000, 249)

• “Human history becomes more and more

a race between education and

catastrophe.” (H.G. Wells)

Risk

Risk Perception Gap

Big Gap

Educationis Vital!

Risk Transfer

• Risk Transfer refers to instruments that

share/hedge economic risks before losses

occur.

• Budget self-insurance

• Market Insurance and Reinsurance

• Public asset coverage

• Risk pooling and diversification

• Risk financing

Examples;

The challenges in building risk

transfer systems

• Lack of risk awareness at the government level

and among population;

• …

31

2.

•PREPAREDNESS

Mitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

• Activities and measures taken in advance

to ensure effective response to the impact

of hazards, including the issuance of

timely and effective early warnings and the

temporary evacuation of people and

property from threatened locations (ISDR,

2004).

32

The Key to Security and

Emergency Preparedness is

Advance Planning

• Reduces confusion

• Improves decision-making

• Saves lives and property

• Business Continuity

• …

33

Types of Exercises

• Orientations

• Drills

• Tabletop Exercises

• Functional Exercises

• Full-Scale Exercises

34

3.

•RESPONSE

Mitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

• The provision of assistance or intervention

during or immediately after a disaster to

meet the life preservation and basic

subsistence needs of those people

affected. It can be of an immediate, short-

term, or protracted duration (ISDR, 2004).

“The main principle of the … is to prevent and protect individuals against the risk rather than to rescue them from the debris.”

36

Response to Changing Situations and

Demands at the Affected Sites

Quake

30 minutes

Emergency calls to the officials in charge

of disaster response who rushed to the

Disaster Management Centre

Setting-up an emergency coordination

team consisting of senior government

officials, headed by the Minister of State for

Disaster Management

Immediate information analysis

Press Briefing soonest

after the quake

24 hours

Dispatch of an emergency survey team to the

affected areas

Mobilization of Search and Rescue Teams

Police , Firefighting, Self-Defense Forces

Full-scale search & rescue activities

Nationwide emergency assistance

Emergency medical evacuation

Food & Water

Blankets & Clothes

Prevention of secondary disasters such as landslides

Temporary repairs of infrastructure & lifeline

3 hours

Emergency Response

38

4.

•RECOVERY

Mitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

Decisions and actions taken after a

disaster with a view to restoring or

improving the pre-disaster living

conditions of the stricken “community”,

while encouraging and facilitating

necessary adjustments to reduce

disaster risk (ISDR, 2004).

Rehabilitation

Rehabilitation

• This is the transition period that begins during response to re-establish temporary critical basic services in the short-term.

Reconstruction

• Reconstruction is the process of infrastructure repair, restoration of the production system, and resumption of the population’s normal life pattern.

40

1 months &

thereafter

Improving of the quality of life of evacuees

Hot meals with variety

Public bath service

Mental care against PTSD

Evacuation of elderly & handicapped to tourist hotels

Full-scale recovery of infrastructure &

lifeline

1-3 weeks

From Response to

Recovery & Rehabilitation Phase

Smooth transition to recovery &

rehabilitation phase

Ensuring of housing

Preparations for the coming winter & snow

Recovery of the local economy

Support to isolated and devastated areas

Aftershocks

The role of insurance ---

• Key in managing disaster risks, reducing losses and recovery costs

• An effective way to manage solidarity since it built on an idea of solidarity

• A developmental role by minimizing potential impact and costs on lives of poor

• A proven mechanism for risk transfer/sharing

• A pre-requisite for sustainable development (normally insurance follows development but here must precede natural disasters)

• To be looked at as a socio-economic paradigm

• Not stand-alone but integrate with larger strategy

Let’s do it.

Thank You