Data used in figures

Category ValueDecline in the value of shares/bonds XI 2008 26400Lost GDP 2008-2015 4700Total loss sub-prime credits X 2007 250Bear Stearns warranty VI 2007 3

Label Figure 1: Spread dynamics of the crisis costs

Source of dataSource: (Vujovic, 2009:38)

Screenshot

Figure 1: Spread dynamics of the crisis costs

Source: (Vujovic, 2009:38)

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Bear Stearns warranty VI 2007

Total loss sub-prime credits X 2007

Lost GDP 2008-2015

Decline in the value of shares/bonds XI 2008

3

250

4700

26400

Data used in figuresIssued on Effective from

1 December 1975 Superseded with SFAS 1152 December 1991 December 15th, 19923 May 1993 December 15th, 1993[1]4 October 1994 Superseded by FAS 133|5 June 1998 June 15th, 19996 February 2000 /7 June 2001 July 20018 2007 December 15th, 20089 June 2001 December 15th, 2001

10 August 2001 December 15th, 200111 February 2006 September 15th, 200612 March 2006 September 15th, 200613 September 2006 November 15th, 200714 February 2007 November 15th, 200715 March 2008 November 15th, 200816 October 2008 October 3rd, 2008

LabelTable 1. Order of issuance of mark-to-market accounting related legislature

Footnote[1]For entities with total assets less than $150 million effective implementation of this standard began on December 15th, 1995.

Source of dataSource: Adapted from: http://www.fasb.org

Screenshot

Issued on Effective from Legislative Description

1. December 1975

Superseded with SFAS 115 SFAS 12 Accounting for certain

marketable securities

2. December 1991

December 15th, 1992 SFAS 107

Disclosures about fair value of financial instruments (amended

by SFAS No. 126)

3. May 1993 December 15th, 19931 SFAS 115

Accounting for certain investments in debt and equity

securities

4. October 1994 Superseded by FAS 133| SFAS 119

Disclosure about derivative financial instruments and fair value of financial instruments

5. June 1998 June 15th, 1999 SFAS 133 Accounting for derivative instruments and hedging

activities

6. February 2000 / Statement of financial accounting concepts 7

Using cash flow information and present value in accounting

7. June 2001 July 2001 SFAS 141 Business combinations

8. 2007 December 15th, 2008 SFAS 141 Revised Business combinations

9. June 2001 December 15th, 2001 SFAS 142 Goodwill and other intangible

assets

10. August 2001 December 15th, 2001 SFAS 144 Accounting for impairment or

disposal of long-lived assets

11. February 2006 September 15th, 2006 SFAS 155 Accounting for certain hybrid

financial instruments

12. March 2006 September 15th, 2006 SFAS 156 Accounting for servicing of

financial assets

13. September 2006

November 15th, 2007 SFAS 157 Fair value measurements

14. February 2007 November 15th, 2007 SFAS 159

The fair value option for financial assets and financial

liabilities

15. March 2008 November 15th, 2008 SFAS 161

Disclosures about derivative instruments and hedging

activities

16. October 2008 October 3rd, 2008

Report and recommendations

pursuant to section 133 of the Emergency

economic stabilization act of 2008

Study on Mark-to-market accounting

1For entities with total assets less than $150 million effective implementation of this standard began on December 15th, 1995.

Issued on Effective from Legislative Description

1. December 1975

Superseded with SFAS 115 SFAS 12 Accounting for certain

marketable securities

2. December 1991

December 15th, 1992 SFAS 107

Disclosures about fair value of financial instruments (amended

by SFAS No. 126)

3. May 1993 December 15th, 19931 SFAS 115

Accounting for certain investments in debt and equity

securities

4. October 1994 Superseded by FAS 133| SFAS 119

Disclosure about derivative financial instruments and fair value of financial instruments

5. June 1998 June 15th, 1999 SFAS 133 Accounting for derivative instruments and hedging

activities

6. February 2000 / Statement of financial accounting concepts 7

Using cash flow information and present value in accounting

7. June 2001 July 2001 SFAS 141 Business combinations

8. 2007 December 15th, 2008 SFAS 141 Revised Business combinations

9. June 2001 December 15th, 2001 SFAS 142 Goodwill and other intangible

assets

10. August 2001 December 15th, 2001 SFAS 144 Accounting for impairment or

disposal of long-lived assets

11. February 2006 September 15th, 2006 SFAS 155 Accounting for certain hybrid

financial instruments

12. March 2006 September 15th, 2006 SFAS 156 Accounting for servicing of

financial assets

13. September 2006

November 15th, 2007 SFAS 157 Fair value measurements

14. February 2007 November 15th, 2007 SFAS 159

The fair value option for financial assets and financial

liabilities

15. March 2008 November 15th, 2008 SFAS 161

Disclosures about derivative instruments and hedging

activities

16. October 2008 October 3rd, 2008

Report and recommendations

pursuant to section 133 of the Emergency

economic stabilization act of 2008

Study on Mark-to-market accounting

1For entities with total assets less than $150 million effective implementation of this standard began on December 15th, 1995.

LegislativeSFAS 12

SFAS 107SFAS 115SFAS 119SFAS 133

Statement of financial accounting concepts 7SFAS 141

SFAS 141 RevisedSFAS 142SFAS 144SFAS 155SFAS 156SFAS 157SFAS 159SFAS 161

Report and recommendations pursuant to section 133 of the Emergency economic stabilization act of 2008

Table 1. Order of issuance of mark-to-market accounting related legislature

[1]For entities with total assets less than $150 million effective implementation of this standard began on December 15th, 1995.

Issued on Effective from Legislative Description

1. December 1975

Superseded with SFAS 115 SFAS 12 Accounting for certain

marketable securities

2. December 1991

December 15th, 1992 SFAS 107

Disclosures about fair value of financial instruments (amended

by SFAS No. 126)

3. May 1993 December 15th, 19931 SFAS 115

Accounting for certain investments in debt and equity

securities

4. October 1994 Superseded by FAS 133| SFAS 119

Disclosure about derivative financial instruments and fair value of financial instruments

5. June 1998 June 15th, 1999 SFAS 133 Accounting for derivative instruments and hedging

activities

6. February 2000 / Statement of financial accounting concepts 7

Using cash flow information and present value in accounting

7. June 2001 July 2001 SFAS 141 Business combinations

8. 2007 December 15th, 2008 SFAS 141 Revised Business combinations

9. June 2001 December 15th, 2001 SFAS 142 Goodwill and other intangible

assets

10. August 2001 December 15th, 2001 SFAS 144 Accounting for impairment or

disposal of long-lived assets

11. February 2006 September 15th, 2006 SFAS 155 Accounting for certain hybrid

financial instruments

12. March 2006 September 15th, 2006 SFAS 156 Accounting for servicing of

financial assets

13. September 2006

November 15th, 2007 SFAS 157 Fair value measurements

14. February 2007 November 15th, 2007 SFAS 159

The fair value option for financial assets and financial

liabilities

15. March 2008 November 15th, 2008 SFAS 161

Disclosures about derivative instruments and hedging

activities

16. October 2008 October 3rd, 2008

Report and recommendations

pursuant to section 133 of the Emergency

economic stabilization act of 2008

Study on Mark-to-market accounting

1For entities with total assets less than $150 million effective implementation of this standard began on December 15th, 1995.

Issued on Effective from Legislative Description

1. December 1975

Superseded with SFAS 115 SFAS 12 Accounting for certain

marketable securities

2. December 1991

December 15th, 1992 SFAS 107

Disclosures about fair value of financial instruments (amended

by SFAS No. 126)

3. May 1993 December 15th, 19931 SFAS 115

Accounting for certain investments in debt and equity

securities

4. October 1994 Superseded by FAS 133| SFAS 119

Disclosure about derivative financial instruments and fair value of financial instruments

5. June 1998 June 15th, 1999 SFAS 133 Accounting for derivative instruments and hedging

activities

6. February 2000 / Statement of financial accounting concepts 7

Using cash flow information and present value in accounting

7. June 2001 July 2001 SFAS 141 Business combinations

8. 2007 December 15th, 2008 SFAS 141 Revised Business combinations

9. June 2001 December 15th, 2001 SFAS 142 Goodwill and other intangible

assets

10. August 2001 December 15th, 2001 SFAS 144 Accounting for impairment or

disposal of long-lived assets

11. February 2006 September 15th, 2006 SFAS 155 Accounting for certain hybrid

financial instruments

12. March 2006 September 15th, 2006 SFAS 156 Accounting for servicing of

financial assets

13. September 2006

November 15th, 2007 SFAS 157 Fair value measurements

14. February 2007 November 15th, 2007 SFAS 159

The fair value option for financial assets and financial

liabilities

15. March 2008 November 15th, 2008 SFAS 161

Disclosures about derivative instruments and hedging

activities

16. October 2008 October 3rd, 2008

Report and recommendations

pursuant to section 133 of the Emergency

economic stabilization act of 2008

Study on Mark-to-market accounting

1For entities with total assets less than $150 million effective implementation of this standard began on December 15th, 1995.

DescriptionAccounting for certain marketable securities

Disclosures about fair value of financial instruments (amended by SFAS No. 126)Accounting for certain investments in debt and equity securities

Disclosure about derivative financial instruments and fair value of financial instrumentsAccounting for derivative instruments and hedging activitiesUsing cash flow information and present value in accounting

Business combinationsBusiness combinations

Goodwill and other intangible assetsAccounting for impairment or disposal of long-lived assets

Accounting for certain hybrid financial instrumentsAccounting for servicing of financial assets

Fair value measurementsThe fair value option for financial assets and financial liabilitiesDisclosures about derivative instruments and hedging activities

Study on Mark-to-market accounting

Data used in TableDate Confidence Interval Conf. Level From To Level

3.1.1927 (3.1.1927, 3.1.1927) 100% 14.42 15.039 34.1.1995 (4.1.1995, 4.1.1995) 100% 15.039 25.605 16.1.1997 (6.1.1997, 6.1.1997) 100% 25.605 36.44 37.1.2002 (7.1.2002, 7.1.2002) 100% 36.44 25.223 2

10.1.2008 (10.1.2008, 10.1.2008) 100% 25.223 19.8 3

Label

Source of dataSource: Authors data

TextConfidence Level for Candidate Changes = 50%, Confidence Level for Inclusion in Table = 90%, Confidence Interval = 95%, Bootstraps = 1000, Without Replacement, MSE Estimates, Level 1-3 Changes

Table 2. Significant changes for the CAPE index

Table of Significant Changes for CAPEConfidence Level for Candidate Changes = 50%, Confidence Level for Inclusion in Table = 90%, Confidence Interval = 95%,

Bootstraps = 1000, Without Replacement, MSE Estimates, Level 1-3 Changes

Date Confidence Interval Conf. Level From To Level

3.1.1927 (3.1.1927, 3.1.1927) 100% 14.42 15.039 3

4.1.1995 (4.1.1995, 4.1.1995) 100% 15.039 25.605 1

6.1.1997 (6.1.1997, 6.1.1997) 100% 25.605 36.44 3

7.1.2002 (7.1.2002, 7.1.2002) 100% 36.44 25.223 2

10.1.2008 (10.1.2008, 10.1.2008) 100% 25.223 19.8 3

Confidence Level for Candidate Changes = 50%, Confidence Level for Inclusion in Table = 90%, Confidence Interval = 95%, Bootstraps = 1000, Without Replacement, MSE Estimates, Level 1-3 Changes

Table of Significant Changes for CAPEConfidence Level for Candidate Changes = 50%, Confidence Level for Inclusion in Table = 90%, Confidence Interval = 95%,

Bootstraps = 1000, Without Replacement, MSE Estimates, Level 1-3 Changes

Date Confidence Interval Conf. Level From To Level

3.1.1927 (3.1.1927, 3.1.1927) 100% 14.42 15.039 3

4.1.1995 (4.1.1995, 4.1.1995) 100% 15.039 25.605 1

6.1.1997 (6.1.1997, 6.1.1997) 100% 25.605 36.44 3

7.1.2002 (7.1.2002, 7.1.2002) 100% 36.44 25.223 2

10.1.2008 (10.1.2008, 10.1.2008) 100% 25.223 19.8 3

Data used in graph Shadings start and end pointsDate CAPE value Date Label

1.1.1881 18.47 3.1.1927 Graph 1. Significant changes in CAPE average2.1.1881 18.15 4.1.19953.1.1881 18.27 6.1.1997 Source of data4.1.1881 17.95 7.1.2002 Source: Authors data5.1.1881 18.87 10.1.20086.1.1881 19.03 Original graph ploted in Change-Point Analyzer Software7.1.1881 18.128.1.1881 17.299.1.1881 16.7210.1.1881 16.2611.1.1881 16.4812.1.1881 15.961.1.1882 15.682.1.1882 15.153.1.1882 15.094.1.1882 14.925.1.1882 14.576.1.1882 14.337.1.1882 15.248.1.1882 15.539.1.1882 16.08 Additional information10.1.1882 15.76 Upper and lower bounds (thin horizontal cascade line in graph) cannot be displayed numericaly in Change-Point Analyzer Software. Their contribution to this graph is important, but not essential. 11.1.1882 15.19 Graph will not loose significantly in its informative value if this line is to be omitted.12.1.1882 15.381.1.1883 15.272.1.1883 14.763.1.1883 15.054.1.1883 15.485.1.1883 15.346.1.1883 15.907.1.1883 15.958.1.1883 15.209.1.1883 15.4910.1.1883 15.0511.1.1883 15.4112.1.1883 14.901.1.1884 14.432.1.1884 14.813.1.1884 14.744.1.1884 14.355.1.1884 13.476.1.1884 12.917.1.1884 13.048.1.1884 13.869.1.1884 13.5710.1.1884 13.2711.1.1884 13.3012.1.1884 13.431.1.1885 13.132.1.1885 13.383.1.1885 13.73

Significant changes in CAPE average

50

45.455

40.909

36.364

31.818

27.273

22.727

18.182

13.636

9.0909

4.5455

0

CAPE

1.1.1881 10.1.1899 7.1.1918 4.1.1937 1.1.1956 10.1.1974 7.1.1993 4.1.2012Date

4.1.1885 13.555.1.1885 13.716.1.1885 13.987.1.1885 14.338.1.1885 15.139.1.1885 15.1210.1.1885 15.9911.1.1885 16.8212.1.1885 16.301.1.1886 16.692.1.1886 17.013.1.1886 16.844.1.1886 16.805.1.1886 16.866.1.1886 17.837.1.1886 17.858.1.1886 17.729.1.1886 18.1510.1.1886 18.5611.1.1886 18.9712.1.1886 18.191.1.1887 17.512.1.1887 17.133.1.1887 17.474.1.1887 17.825.1.1887 18.086.1.1887 17.717.1.1887 17.438.1.1887 16.749.1.1887 16.6810.1.1887 15.8811.1.1887 15.9512.1.1887 15.461.1.1888 15.362.1.1888 15.423.1.1888 14.814.1.1888 15.025.1.1888 15.396.1.1888 15.087.1.1888 15.288.1.1888 15.609.1.1888 15.9910.1.1888 15.7211.1.1888 15.2212.1.1888 14.951.1.1889 15.802.1.1889 16.193.1.1889 16.074.1.1889 16.055.1.1889 16.926.1.1889 17.227.1.1889 16.898.1.1889 17.13

9.1.1889 17.3510.1.1889 17.0511.1.1889 16.9112.1.1889 16.611.1.1890 17.222.1.1890 17.033.1.1890 16.904.1.1890 17.265.1.1890 17.796.1.1890 17.687.1.1890 17.598.1.1890 16.609.1.1890 16.1710.1.1890 15.4811.1.1890 14.7512.1.1890 14.441.1.1891 15.432.1.1891 15.483.1.1891 15.054.1.1891 15.415.1.1891 15.576.1.1891 15.667.1.1891 15.628.1.1891 16.169.1.1891 17.7110.1.1891 17.7211.1.1891 17.6712.1.1891 18.211.1.1892 19.022.1.1892 19.043.1.1892 19.744.1.1892 19.945.1.1892 19.916.1.1892 19.777.1.1892 19.218.1.1892 19.209.1.1892 18.6910.1.1892 19.0411.1.1892 18.4612.1.1892 18.011.1.1893 17.662.1.1893 17.133.1.1893 16.904.1.1893 17.105.1.1893 15.786.1.1893 15.427.1.1893 14.358.1.1893 14.599.1.1893 15.0110.1.1893 15.2711.1.1893 15.9412.1.1893 15.611.1.1894 15.74

2.1.1894 16.203.1.1894 17.194.1.1894 17.435.1.1894 16.816.1.1894 16.617.1.1894 16.298.1.1894 16.469.1.1894 16.5210.1.1894 16.5011.1.1894 16.5412.1.1894 16.671.1.1895 16.522.1.1895 16.333.1.1895 16.364.1.1895 16.395.1.1895 17.086.1.1895 17.217.1.1895 17.558.1.1895 18.079.1.1895 18.2010.1.1895 17.9411.1.1895 17.3412.1.1895 16.551.1.1896 16.582.1.1896 17.523.1.1896 17.234.1.1896 17.645.1.1896 17.836.1.1896 17.787.1.1896 16.648.1.1896 15.709.1.1896 16.5410.1.1896 16.4411.1.1896 17.0912.1.1896 16.501.1.1897 17.032.1.1897 16.893.1.1897 16.964.1.1897 16.705.1.1897 17.056.1.1897 17.857.1.1897 18.658.1.1897 19.019.1.1897 19.3710.1.1897 19.0311.1.1897 18.3612.1.1897 18.751.1.1898 19.252.1.1898 18.923.1.1898 18.044.1.1898 17.715.1.1898 17.606.1.1898 19.54

7.1.1898 19.868.1.1898 20.549.1.1898 20.4410.1.1898 19.9511.1.1898 20.5312.1.1898 21.401.1.1899 22.932.1.1899 23.053.1.1899 23.284.1.1899 23.155.1.1899 22.096.1.1899 21.217.1.1899 21.568.1.1899 21.739.1.1899 20.5910.1.1899 20.1511.1.1899 20.2012.1.1899 18.511.1.1900 18.672.1.1900 18.703.1.1900 18.784.1.1900 18.945.1.1900 18.406.1.1900 17.997.1.1900 17.698.1.1900 18.079.1.1900 17.3410.1.1900 18.1011.1.1900 19.4212.1.1900 20.741.1.1901 20.982.1.1901 21.683.1.1901 22.354.1.1901 24.415.1.1901 23.066.1.1901 25.247.1.1901 23.148.1.1901 23.089.1.1901 22.5910.1.1901 22.2511.1.1901 22.3812.1.1901 21.681.1.1902 22.342.1.1902 22.463.1.1902 22.414.1.1902 22.825.1.1902 22.436.1.1902 21.967.1.1902 22.398.1.1902 23.179.1.1902 22.8610.1.1902 20.6011.1.1902 20.41

12.1.1902 19.631.1.1903 20.322.1.1903 20.113.1.1903 19.884.1.1903 18.985.1.1903 18.956.1.1903 17.827.1.1903 16.928.1.1903 16.309.1.1903 15.6510.1.1903 15.2511.1.1903 15.4112.1.1903 16.041.1.1904 15.862.1.1904 15.023.1.1904 15.084.1.1904 15.575.1.1904 15.536.1.1904 15.477.1.1904 16.048.1.1904 16.309.1.1904 16.7410.1.1904 17.6311.1.1904 18.0812.1.1904 18.161.1.1905 18.462.1.1905 19.173.1.1905 19.834.1.1905 19.485.1.1905 18.636.1.1905 18.747.1.1905 19.218.1.1905 19.579.1.1905 19.7410.1.1905 19.9011.1.1905 19.4412.1.1905 19.581.1.1906 20.132.1.1906 19.873.1.1906 19.264.1.1906 18.885.1.1906 18.056.1.1906 18.177.1.1906 18.208.1.1906 18.979.1.1906 19.2010.1.1906 18.1011.1.1906 18.1412.1.1906 17.661.1.1907 17.222.1.1907 16.223.1.1907 14.694.1.1907 14.67

5.1.1907 13.796.1.1907 13.147.1.1907 13.598.1.1907 12.519.1.1907 12.3310.1.1907 10.8311.1.1907 10.5912.1.1907 11.331.1.1908 11.902.1.1908 11.553.1.1908 11.984.1.1908 12.455.1.1908 13.086.1.1908 13.057.1.1908 13.358.1.1908 13.889.1.1908 13.7010.1.1908 13.6911.1.1908 14.4412.1.1908 14.581.1.1909 14.762.1.1909 14.173.1.1909 14.344.1.1909 14.655.1.1909 14.956.1.1909 15.047.1.1909 15.238.1.1909 15.429.1.1909 15.2510.1.1909 14.9911.1.1909 14.7512.1.1909 14.751.1.1910 14.552.1.1910 14.003.1.1910 14.054.1.1910 13.565.1.1910 13.576.1.1910 13.027.1.1910 12.348.1.1910 12.759.1.1910 12.9410.1.1910 13.9211.1.1910 14.1612.1.1910 13.741.1.1911 14.052.1.1911 14.723.1.1911 14.374.1.1911 14.755.1.1911 15.056.1.1911 15.337.1.1911 15.088.1.1911 13.909.1.1911 13.00

10.1.1911 13.0711.1.1911 13.7312.1.1911 13.931.1.1912 13.792.1.1912 13.533.1.1912 13.644.1.1912 13.655.1.1912 13.656.1.1912 13.797.1.1912 13.808.1.1912 13.989.1.1912 13.9310.1.1912 13.9111.1.1912 13.7512.1.1912 13.391.1.1913 13.152.1.1913 12.683.1.1913 12.444.1.1913 12.435.1.1913 12.226.1.1913 11.497.1.1913 11.538.1.1913 11.859.1.1913 11.8410.1.1913 11.4711.1.1913 11.0712.1.1913 11.171.1.1914 11.642.1.1914 11.913.1.1914 11.694.1.1914 11.525.1.1914 11.486.1.1914 11.437.1.1914 10.698.1.1914 10.499.1.1914 10.5010.1.1914 10.6111.1.1914 10.5212.1.1914 10.171.1.1915 10.362.1.1915 10.333.1.1915 10.714.1.1915 11.405.1.1915 11.036.1.1915 11.157.1.1915 11.118.1.1915 11.589.1.1915 12.0110.1.1915 12.5511.1.1915 12.8612.1.1915 12.881.1.1916 12.542.1.1916 12.35

3.1.1916 12.184.1.1916 11.915.1.1916 12.036.1.1916 12.007.1.1916 11.798.1.1916 11.739.1.1916 11.9410.1.1916 12.0511.1.1916 12.0512.1.1916 11.411.1.1917 10.992.1.1917 10.063.1.1917 10.334.1.1917 9.645.1.1917 9.146.1.1917 9.157.1.1917 9.008.1.1917 8.579.1.1917 7.9510.1.1917 7.3911.1.1917 6.7512.1.1917 6.411.1.1918 6.642.1.1918 6.783.1.1918 6.694.1.1918 6.525.1.1918 6.586.1.1918 6.507.1.1918 6.378.1.1918 6.309.1.1918 6.1510.1.1918 6.2911.1.1918 6.3312.1.1918 6.131.1.1919 6.102.1.1919 6.243.1.1919 6.364.1.1919 6.465.1.1919 6.836.1.1919 7.027.1.1919 7.058.1.1919 6.489.1.1919 6.5610.1.1919 6.7911.1.1919 6.4712.1.1919 6.161.1.1920 5.992.1.1920 5.463.1.1920 5.804.1.1920 5.605.1.1920 5.196.1.1920 5.047.1.1920 5.08

8.1.1920 5.029.1.1920 5.3010.1.1920 5.3511.1.1920 5.1312.1.1920 4.781.1.1921 5.122.1.1921 5.273.1.1921 5.194.1.1921 5.305.1.1921 5.616.1.1921 5.227.1.1921 5.208.1.1921 5.169.1.1921 5.3810.1.1921 5.4811.1.1921 5.8412.1.1921 6.111.1.1922 6.292.1.1922 6.463.1.1922 6.824.1.1922 7.275.1.1922 7.596.1.1922 7.567.1.1922 7.608.1.1922 8.029.1.1922 8.2710.1.1922 8.4311.1.1922 8.0012.1.1922 7.961.1.1923 8.152.1.1923 8.533.1.1923 8.704.1.1923 8.375.1.1923 8.006.1.1923 7.677.1.1923 7.358.1.1923 7.449.1.1923 7.4610.1.1923 7.3211.1.1923 7.5512.1.1923 7.811.1.1924 8.072.1.1924 8.163.1.1924 8.064.1.1924 7.925.1.1924 7.906.1.1924 8.057.1.1924 8.388.1.1924 8.729.1.1924 8.5810.1.1924 8.4211.1.1924 8.8912.1.1924 9.31

1.1.1925 9.692.1.1925 9.833.1.1925 9.524.1.1925 9.485.1.1925 9.736.1.1925 9.807.1.1925 9.968.1.1925 10.119.1.1925 10.3610.1.1925 10.7211.1.1925 10.8912.1.1925 11.151.1.1926 11.342.1.1926 11.393.1.1926 10.714.1.1926 10.405.1.1926 10.586.1.1926 11.207.1.1926 11.878.1.1926 12.499.1.1926 12.6910.1.1926 12.4311.1.1926 12.6212.1.1926 13.011.1.1927 13.192.1.1927 13.633.1.1927 14.034.1.1927 14.495.1.1927 15.006.1.1927 15.127.1.1927 15.828.1.1927 16.869.1.1927 17.8210.1.1927 17.5411.1.1927 18.1312.1.1927 18.651.1.1928 18.812.1.1928 18.873.1.1928 19.944.1.1928 21.265.1.1928 21.836.1.1928 20.917.1.1928 21.088.1.1928 21.769.1.1928 23.0010.1.1928 23.5811.1.1928 25.1212.1.1928 25.301.1.1929 27.082.1.1929 27.133.1.1929 27.684.1.1929 27.575.1.1929 27.70

6.1.1929 27.947.1.1929 29.938.1.1929 31.489.1.1929 32.5610.1.1929 28.9611.1.1929 21.1712.1.1929 22.011.1.1930 22.312.1.1930 23.703.1.1930 24.594.1.1930 25.845.1.1930 24.316.1.1930 21.877.1.1930 21.558.1.1930 21.309.1.1930 21.0710.1.1930 18.2111.1.1930 16.9412.1.1930 16.061.1.1931 16.712.1.1931 18.163.1.1931 18.584.1.1931 16.875.1.1931 15.406.1.1931 15.067.1.1931 15.528.1.1931 15.019.1.1931 12.8210.1.1931 11.1511.1.1931 11.4212.1.1931 9.311.1.1932 9.312.1.1932 9.343.1.1932 9.414.1.1932 7.195.1.1932 6.396.1.1932 5.577.1.1932 5.848.1.1932 8.839.1.1932 9.7610.1.1932 8.4811.1.1932 8.4612.1.1932 8.261.1.1933 8.732.1.1933 7.833.1.1933 7.874.1.1933 8.725.1.1933 11.256.1.1933 13.107.1.1933 13.758.1.1933 13.009.1.1933 12.9210.1.1933 11.70

11.1.1933 12.0112.1.1933 12.281.1.1934 13.032.1.1934 13.933.1.1934 13.254.1.1934 13.525.1.1934 12.186.1.1934 12.297.1.1934 11.748.1.1934 11.329.1.1934 10.9110.1.1934 11.1111.1.1934 11.4512.1.1934 11.641.1.1935 11.502.1.1935 11.093.1.1935 10.404.1.1935 11.105.1.1935 11.996.1.1935 12.547.1.1935 13.208.1.1935 14.119.1.1935 14.4210.1.1935 14.8311.1.1935 16.1312.1.1935 16.161.1.1936 17.092.1.1936 18.103.1.1936 18.664.1.1936 18.725.1.1936 17.756.1.1936 18.397.1.1936 19.368.1.1936 19.629.1.1936 19.8610.1.1936 20.9111.1.1936 21.5012.1.1936 21.131.1.1937 21.622.1.1937 22.243.1.1937 22.044.1.1937 20.565.1.1937 19.476.1.1937 18.717.1.1937 19.658.1.1937 19.819.1.1937 16.8510.1.1937 14.3611.1.1937 13.1612.1.1937 13.011.1.1938 13.512.1.1938 13.263.1.1938 12.38

4.1.1938 11.795.1.1938 11.996.1.1938 12.297.1.1938 14.778.1.1938 14.909.1.1938 14.2810.1.1938 16.0611.1.1938 16.1512.1.1938 15.761.1.1939 15.602.1.1939 15.663.1.1939 15.734.1.1939 13.925.1.1939 14.506.1.1939 14.837.1.1939 15.278.1.1939 15.129.1.1939 16.4510.1.1939 16.8211.1.1939 16.6012.1.1939 16.281.1.1940 16.382.1.1940 16.223.1.1940 16.174.1.1940 16.375.1.1940 14.146.1.1940 12.847.1.1940 13.378.1.1940 13.659.1.1940 14.2110.1.1940 14.3311.1.1940 14.6412.1.1940 13.911.1.1941 13.902.1.1941 13.003.1.1941 12.964.1.1941 12.435.1.1941 12.046.1.1941 12.167.1.1941 12.748.1.1941 12.469.1.1941 12.2810.1.1941 11.5811.1.1941 10.9112.1.1941 10.091.1.1942 10.102.1.1942 9.683.1.1942 9.004.1.1942 8.545.1.1942 8.516.1.1942 8.917.1.1942 9.158.1.1942 9.01

9.1.1942 9.0810.1.1942 9.6011.1.1942 9.6612.1.1942 9.621.1.1943 10.152.1.1943 10.713.1.1943 10.854.1.1943 11.045.1.1943 11.366.1.1943 11.527.1.1943 11.778.1.1943 11.219.1.1943 11.3410.1.1943 11.1911.1.1943 10.6312.1.1943 10.741.1.1944 11.052.1.1944 10.953.1.1944 11.224.1.1944 10.945.1.1944 11.106.1.1944 11.537.1.1944 11.748.1.1944 11.549.1.1944 11.3310.1.1944 11.5811.1.1944 11.4812.1.1944 11.641.1.1945 11.962.1.1945 12.343.1.1945 12.324.1.1945 12.635.1.1945 13.046.1.1945 13.137.1.1945 12.878.1.1945 12.929.1.1945 13.8010.1.1945 14.3711.1.1945 14.8512.1.1945 15.021.1.1946 15.622.1.1946 15.763.1.1946 15.134.1.1946 16.045.1.1946 16.016.1.1946 15.777.1.1946 14.518.1.1946 13.989.1.1946 11.8410.1.1946 11.3911.1.1946 11.1112.1.1946 11.371.1.1947 11.47

2.1.1947 11.953.1.1947 11.294.1.1947 10.905.1.1947 10.736.1.1947 11.087.1.1947 11.708.1.1947 11.349.1.1947 10.8310.1.1947 11.1311.1.1947 10.9812.1.1947 10.681.1.1948 10.422.1.1948 10.003.1.1948 10.194.1.1948 10.785.1.1948 11.246.1.1948 11.587.1.1948 11.138.1.1948 10.729.1.1948 10.5510.1.1948 10.8311.1.1948 10.2512.1.1948 10.161.1.1949 10.252.1.1949 9.873.1.1949 9.904.1.1949 9.785.1.1949 9.696.1.1949 9.077.1.1949 9.618.1.1949 9.859.1.1949 9.8810.1.1949 10.1711.1.1949 10.2212.1.1949 10.531.1.1950 10.752.1.1950 10.913.1.1950 10.914.1.1950 11.185.1.1950 11.466.1.1950 11.557.1.1950 10.548.1.1950 11.049.1.1950 11.3410.1.1950 11.6611.1.1950 11.5412.1.1950 11.311.1.1951 11.902.1.1951 12.143.1.1951 11.844.1.1951 11.955.1.1951 11.866.1.1951 11.62

7.1.1951 11.788.1.1951 12.269.1.1951 12.4410.1.1951 12.3111.1.1951 11.8512.1.1951 12.151.1.1952 12.532.1.1952 12.363.1.1952 12.364.1.1952 12.245.1.1952 12.206.1.1952 12.457.1.1952 12.678.1.1952 12.689.1.1952 12.4310.1.1952 12.1311.1.1952 12.4712.1.1952 12.931.1.1953 13.012.1.1953 12.863.1.1953 12.834.1.1953 12.165.1.1953 12.146.1.1953 11.627.1.1953 11.758.1.1953 11.729.1.1953 11.1410.1.1953 11.3911.1.1953 11.6412.1.1953 11.751.1.1954 12.002.1.1954 12.223.1.1954 12.424.1.1954 12.915.1.1954 13.316.1.1954 13.367.1.1954 13.838.1.1954 14.049.1.1954 14.3610.1.1954 14.6211.1.1954 15.1212.1.1954 15.791.1.1955 15.992.1.1955 16.443.1.1955 16.224.1.1955 16.695.1.1955 16.526.1.1955 17.377.1.1955 18.458.1.1955 18.229.1.1955 18.8410.1.1955 17.7711.1.1955 18.84

12.1.1955 18.941.1.1956 18.292.1.1956 18.273.1.1956 19.374.1.1956 19.375.1.1956 18.546.1.1956 18.167.1.1956 18.868.1.1956 18.679.1.1956 17.8410.1.1956 17.4211.1.1956 17.1212.1.1956 17.201.1.1957 16.722.1.1957 15.843.1.1957 15.904.1.1957 16.125.1.1957 16.606.1.1957 16.737.1.1957 16.878.1.1957 15.879.1.1957 15.1610.1.1957 14.1511.1.1957 13.7412.1.1957 13.671.1.1958 13.792.1.1958 13.783.1.1958 13.934.1.1958 13.915.1.1958 14.326.1.1958 14.647.1.1958 14.968.1.1958 15.549.1.1958 15.9310.1.1958 16.5611.1.1958 16.9912.1.1958 17.361.1.1959 17.982.1.1959 17.763.1.1959 18.204.1.1959 18.435.1.1959 18.696.1.1959 18.457.1.1959 19.098.1.1959 18.969.1.1959 18.1210.1.1959 18.0211.1.1959 18.0712.1.1959 18.621.1.1960 18.342.1.1960 17.553.1.1960 17.294.1.1960 17.43

5.1.1960 17.266.1.1960 17.827.1.1960 17.388.1.1960 17.589.1.1960 17.0510.1.1960 16.6111.1.1960 17.1512.1.1960 17.561.1.1961 18.472.1.1961 19.233.1.1961 19.844.1.1961 20.385.1.1961 20.606.1.1961 20.337.1.1961 20.158.1.1961 20.949.1.1961 20.7110.1.1961 20.9211.1.1961 21.8612.1.1961 22.041.1.1962 21.202.1.1962 21.453.1.1962 21.444.1.1962 20.665.1.1962 19.096.1.1962 16.837.1.1962 17.148.1.1962 17.579.1.1962 17.3210.1.1962 16.7411.1.1962 17.8512.1.1962 18.591.1.1963 19.262.1.1963 19.473.1.1963 19.294.1.1963 20.155.1.1963 20.516.1.1963 20.387.1.1963 19.978.1.1963 20.479.1.1963 20.9610.1.1963 20.8911.1.1963 20.7212.1.1963 21.041.1.1964 21.632.1.1964 21.833.1.1964 22.174.1.1964 22.425.1.1964 22.576.1.1964 22.307.1.1964 22.988.1.1964 22.659.1.1964 22.89

10.1.1964 23.2111.1.1964 23.2312.1.1964 22.751.1.1965 23.272.1.1965 23.373.1.1965 23.254.1.1965 23.425.1.1965 23.716.1.1965 22.397.1.1965 22.308.1.1965 22.679.1.1965 23.3710.1.1965 23.7811.1.1965 23.9312.1.1965 23.691.1.1966 24.062.1.1966 23.703.1.1966 22.614.1.1966 23.115.1.1966 21.856.1.1966 21.567.1.1966 21.388.1.1966 19.919.1.1966 19.1610.1.1966 18.8311.1.1966 19.7112.1.1966 19.741.1.1967 20.432.1.1967 21.073.1.1967 21.444.1.1967 21.695.1.1967 21.956.1.1967 21.557.1.1967 21.808.1.1967 22.039.1.1967 22.2210.1.1967 22.0711.1.1967 21.2612.1.1967 21.751.1.1968 21.512.1.1968 20.423.1.1968 19.934.1.1968 21.285.1.1968 21.636.1.1968 22.007.1.1968 21.758.1.1968 21.149.1.1968 21.6810.1.1968 22.0011.1.1968 22.2012.1.1968 22.281.1.1969 21.192.1.1969 20.90

3.1.1969 20.204.1.1969 20.435.1.1969 20.976.1.1969 19.717.1.1969 18.688.1.1969 18.439.1.1969 18.4010.1.1969 18.4511.1.1969 18.4412.1.1969 17.331.1.1970 17.092.1.1970 16.373.1.1970 16.534.1.1970 15.875.1.1970 13.986.1.1970 13.807.1.1970 13.738.1.1970 14.109.1.1970 14.8410.1.1970 15.0611.1.1970 14.9512.1.1970 15.871.1.1971 16.462.1.1971 17.033.1.1971 17.404.1.1971 17.925.1.1971 17.566.1.1971 17.087.1.1971 16.898.1.1971 16.529.1.1971 16.8610.1.1971 16.4311.1.1971 15.6412.1.1971 16.601.1.1972 17.262.1.1972 17.463.1.1972 17.814.1.1972 17.925.1.1972 17.666.1.1972 17.647.1.1972 17.408.1.1972 17.949.1.1972 17.6110.1.1972 17.5311.1.1972 18.3412.1.1972 18.651.1.1973 18.712.1.1973 17.893.1.1973 17.414.1.1973 16.945.1.1973 16.316.1.1973 15.817.1.1973 15.89

8.1.1973 15.289.1.1973 15.4810.1.1973 15.9111.1.1973 14.6512.1.1973 13.491.1.1974 13.532.1.1974 12.963.1.1974 13.314.1.1974 12.555.1.1974 12.006.1.1974 11.897.1.1974 10.398.1.1974 9.829.1.1974 8.6810.1.1974 8.7411.1.1974 8.9512.1.1974 8.291.1.1975 8.922.1.1975 9.763.1.1975 10.164.1.1975 10.235.1.1975 10.826.1.1975 11.017.1.1975 10.908.1.1975 10.099.1.1975 9.9210.1.1975 10.3311.1.1975 10.4412.1.1975 10.251.1.1976 11.192.1.1976 11.593.1.1976 11.634.1.1976 11.695.1.1976 11.536.1.1976 11.547.1.1976 11.768.1.1976 11.609.1.1976 11.8110.1.1976 11.3511.1.1976 11.2512.1.1976 11.601.1.1977 11.442.1.1977 11.013.1.1977 10.904.1.1977 10.645.1.1977 10.556.1.1977 10.537.1.1977 10.578.1.1977 10.279.1.1977 10.0710.1.1977 9.7711.1.1977 9.7712.1.1977 9.68

1.1.1978 9.242.1.1978 9.053.1.1978 8.954.1.1978 9.265.1.1978 9.636.1.1978 9.557.1.1978 9.438.1.1978 10.029.1.1978 9.9410.1.1978 9.5311.1.1978 8.9312.1.1978 9.011.1.1979 9.262.1.1979 9.003.1.1979 9.074.1.1979 9.135.1.1979 8.796.1.1979 8.857.1.1979 8.838.1.1979 9.139.1.1979 9.1110.1.1979 8.6811.1.1979 8.5212.1.1979 8.751.1.1980 8.852.1.1980 9.053.1.1980 8.084.1.1980 7.845.1.1980 8.106.1.1980 8.517.1.1980 8.888.1.1980 9.079.1.1980 9.2010.1.1980 9.3611.1.1980 9.6512.1.1980 9.391.1.1981 9.262.1.1981 8.833.1.1981 9.084.1.1981 9.095.1.1981 8.826.1.1981 8.777.1.1981 8.458.1.1981 8.409.1.1981 7.5810.1.1981 7.6511.1.1981 7.8112.1.1981 7.831.1.1982 7.392.1.1982 7.183.1.1982 6.954.1.1982 7.265.1.1982 7.19

6.1.1982 6.697.1.1982 6.648.1.1982 6.649.1.1982 7.4010.1.1982 8.0011.1.1982 8.3512.1.1982 8.471.1.1983 8.762.1.1983 8.913.1.1983 9.234.1.1983 9.535.1.1983 9.876.1.1983 10.007.1.1983 10.018.1.1983 9.739.1.1983 9.9810.1.1983 10.0011.1.1983 9.8512.1.1983 9.821.1.1984 9.892.1.1984 9.323.1.1984 9.334.1.1984 9.315.1.1984 9.236.1.1984 9.017.1.1984 8.878.1.1984 9.629.1.1984 9.6910.1.1984 9.6011.1.1984 9.6912.1.1984 9.601.1.1985 10.002.1.1985 10.493.1.1985 10.374.1.1985 10.405.1.1985 10.616.1.1985 10.817.1.1985 11.008.1.1985 10.749.1.1985 10.4710.1.1985 10.5511.1.1985 11.1612.1.1985 11.691.1.1986 11.722.1.1986 12.393.1.1986 13.194.1.1986 13.555.1.1986 13.566.1.1986 13.897.1.1986 13.628.1.1986 13.899.1.1986 13.4710.1.1986 13.43

11.1.1986 13.8712.1.1986 14.091.1.1987 14.922.1.1987 15.823.1.1987 16.434.1.1987 16.205.1.1987 16.166.1.1987 16.837.1.1987 17.318.1.1987 18.339.1.1987 17.6810.1.1987 15.5311.1.1987 13.5912.1.1987 13.391.1.1988 13.902.1.1988 14.303.1.1988 14.674.1.1988 14.435.1.1988 14.036.1.1988 14.777.1.1988 14.618.1.1988 14.249.1.1988 14.3710.1.1988 14.8111.1.1988 14.4512.1.1988 14.701.1.1989 15.092.1.1989 15.473.1.1989 15.304.1.1989 15.695.1.1989 16.196.1.1989 16.647.1.1989 17.018.1.1989 17.739.1.1989 17.7110.1.1989 17.6411.1.1989 17.2412.1.1989 17.651.1.1990 17.052.1.1990 16.513.1.1990 16.834.1.1990 16.815.1.1990 17.396.1.1990 17.827.1.1990 17.758.1.1990 16.179.1.1990 15.3010.1.1990 14.8211.1.1990 15.1912.1.1990 15.851.1.1991 15.612.1.1991 17.353.1.1991 17.82

4.1.1991 18.165.1.1991 18.046.1.1991 18.027.1.1991 18.108.1.1991 18.519.1.1991 18.3610.1.1991 18.3511.1.1991 18.2912.1.1991 18.441.1.1992 19.772.1.1992 19.583.1.1992 19.284.1.1992 19.305.1.1992 19.666.1.1992 19.327.1.1992 19.628.1.1992 19.729.1.1992 19.7110.1.1992 19.3711.1.1992 19.8312.1.1992 20.451.1.1993 20.322.1.1993 20.553.1.1993 20.864.1.1993 20.465.1.1993 20.526.1.1993 20.617.1.1993 20.578.1.1993 20.819.1.1993 20.9910.1.1993 21.1111.1.1993 21.0412.1.1993 21.171.1.1994 21.412.1.1994 21.263.1.1994 20.834.1.1994 20.065.1.1994 20.206.1.1994 20.297.1.1994 20.078.1.1994 20.549.1.1994 20.5810.1.1994 20.4011.1.1994 20.2112.1.1994 19.911.1.1995 20.222.1.1995 20.803.1.1995 21.154.1.1995 21.645.1.1995 22.206.1.1995 22.727.1.1995 23.388.1.1995 23.28

9.1.1995 23.9510.1.1995 23.9311.1.1995 24.3512.1.1995 25.031.1.1996 24.762.1.1996 25.983.1.1996 25.634.1.1996 25.435.1.1996 25.816.1.1996 25.977.1.1996 24.868.1.1996 25.419.1.1996 25.6810.1.1996 26.4811.1.1996 27.5912.1.1996 27.721.1.1997 28.332.1.1997 29.273.1.1997 28.804.1.1997 27.595.1.1997 29.936.1.1997 31.267.1.1997 32.778.1.1997 32.599.1.1997 32.6710.1.1997 32.9011.1.1997 32.3412.1.1997 33.031.1.1998 32.862.1.1998 34.713.1.1998 36.304.1.1998 37.285.1.1998 36.966.1.1998 36.807.1.1998 38.268.1.1998 35.429.1.1998 33.5310.1.1998 33.7711.1.1998 37.3712.1.1998 38.821.1.1999 40.582.1.1999 40.403.1.1999 41.364.1.1999 42.715.1.1999 42.566.1.1999 42.187.1.1999 43.838.1.1999 41.939.1.1999 41.3210.1.1999 40.5511.1.1999 43.2112.1.1999 44.201.1.2000 43.77

2.1.2000 42.193.1.2000 43.224.1.2000 43.535.1.2000 41.976.1.2000 42.787.1.2000 42.768.1.2000 42.879.1.2000 41.9010.1.2000 39.3711.1.2000 38.7812.1.2000 37.281.1.2001 36.982.1.2001 35.843.1.2001 32.334.1.2001 32.175.1.2001 34.086.1.2001 33.077.1.2001 32.168.1.2001 31.409.1.2001 27.6710.1.2001 28.5811.1.2001 30.0112.1.2001 30.501.1.2002 30.282.1.2002 29.093.1.2002 30.294.1.2002 29.015.1.2002 28.136.1.2002 26.397.1.2002 23.468.1.2002 23.599.1.2002 22.3610.1.2002 21.9511.1.2002 23.3412.1.2002 23.101.1.2003 22.892.1.2003 21.213.1.2003 21.314.1.2003 22.425.1.2003 23.596.1.2003 24.837.1.2003 24.868.1.2003 24.649.1.2003 25.2410.1.2003 25.6811.1.2003 25.9412.1.2003 26.631.1.2004 27.652.1.2004 27.653.1.2004 26.884.1.2004 26.905.1.2004 25.906.1.2004 26.40

7.1.2004 25.698.1.2004 25.179.1.2004 25.6610.1.2004 25.4111.1.2004 26.4612.1.2004 27.141.1.2005 26.582.1.2005 26.743.1.2005 26.334.1.2005 25.405.1.2005 25.646.1.2005 26.067.1.2005 26.288.1.2005 26.109.1.2005 25.7210.1.2005 24.8711.1.2005 25.9212.1.2005 26.431.1.2006 26.462.1.2006 26.243.1.2006 26.324.1.2006 26.145.1.2006 25.646.1.2006 24.747.1.2006 24.698.1.2006 25.049.1.2006 25.6310.1.2006 26.5311.1.2006 26.9212.1.2006 27.271.1.2007 27.202.1.2007 27.313.1.2007 26.224.1.2007 26.975.1.2007 27.546.1.2007 27.417.1.2007 27.408.1.2007 26.149.1.2007 26.7210.1.2007 27.3111.1.2007 25.7212.1.2007 25.951.1.2008 24.012.1.2008 23.493.1.2008 22.604.1.2008 23.355.1.2008 23.696.1.2008 22.417.1.2008 20.908.1.2008 21.399.1.2008 20.3610.1.2008 16.3811.1.2008 15.25

12.1.2008 15.371.1.2009 15.172.1.2009 14.123.1.2009 13.324.1.2009 14.985.1.2009 15.996.1.2009 16.387.1.2009 16.698.1.2009 18.099.1.2009 18.8310.1.2009 19.3511.1.2009 19.8112.1.2009 20.321.1.2010 20.522.1.2010 19.913.1.2010 21.004.1.2010 21.805.1.2010 20.476.1.2010 19.737.1.2010 19.668.1.2010 19.769.1.2010 20.3710.1.2010 21.2311.1.2010 21.6912.1.2010 22.391.1.2011 22.972.1.2011 23.483.1.2011 22.894.1.2011 23.145.1.2011 23.056.1.2011 22.097.1.2011 22.608.1.2011 20.049.1.2011 19.6910.1.2011 20.1511.1.2011 20.3412.1.2011 20.521.1.2012 21.212.1.2012 21.793.1.2012 22.054.1.2012 21.77

Graph 1. Significant changes in CAPE average

Source of dataSource: Authors data

Original graph ploted in Change-Point Analyzer Software

Upper and lower bounds (thin horizontal cascade line in graph) cannot be displayed numericaly in Change-Point Analyzer Software. Their contribution to this graph is important, but not essential. Graph will not loose significantly in its informative value if this line is to be omitted.

Significant changes in CAPE average

50

45.455

40.909

36.364

31.818

27.273

22.727

18.182

13.636

9.0909

4.5455

0

CAPE

1.1.1881 10.1.1899 7.1.1918 4.1.1937 1.1.1956 10.1.1974 7.1.1993 4.1.2012Date

Upper and lower bounds (thin horizontal cascade line in graph) cannot be displayed numericaly in Change-Point Analyzer Software. Their contribution to this graph is important, but not essential.

Data used in graphDate - x axis US GDP index base year 1950 = 100 - y axis

4/1/1950 100.007/1/1950 103.04

10/1/1950 107.081/1/1951 108.964/1/1951 110.337/1/1951 112.16

10/1/1951 114.401/1/1952 114.594/1/1952 115.757/1/1952 115.88

10/1/1952 116.651/1/1953 120.514/1/1953 122.767/1/1953 123.69

10/1/1953 122.941/1/1954 120.994/1/1954 120.417/1/1954 120.56

10/1/1954 121.921/1/1955 124.364/1/1955 127.957/1/1955 130.06

10/1/1955 131.801/1/1956 132.544/1/1956 131.937/1/1956 132.97

10/1/1956 132.811/1/1957 134.984/1/1957 135.807/1/1957 135.48

10/1/1957 136.781/1/1958 135.344/1/1958 131.687/1/1958 132.49

10/1/1958 135.591/1/1959 138.754/1/1959 141.567/1/1959 145.13

10/1/1959 144.961/1/1960 145.474/1/1960 148.737/1/1960 148.04

10/1/1960 148.281/1/1961 146.384/1/1961 147.257/1/1961 150.01

10/1/1961 152.431/1/1962 155.53

4/1/1962 158.327/1/1962 160.07

10/1/1962 161.551/1/1963 161.944/1/1963 164.067/1/1963 166.11

10/1/1963 169.241/1/1964 170.534/1/1964 174.357/1/1964 176.36

10/1/1964 178.751/1/1965 179.254/1/1965 183.657/1/1965 186.14

10/1/1965 189.921/1/1966 194.504/1/1966 199.287/1/1966 199.94

10/1/1966 201.251/1/1967 202.894/1/1967 204.677/1/1967 204.72

10/1/1967 206.351/1/1968 207.924/1/1968 212.217/1/1968 215.81

10/1/1968 217.291/1/1969 218.234/1/1969 221.677/1/1969 222.31

10/1/1969 223.721/1/1970 222.674/1/1970 222.327/1/1970 222.72

10/1/1970 224.701/1/1971 222.324/1/1971 228.457/1/1971 229.75

10/1/1971 231.581/1/1972 232.234/1/1972 236.387/1/1972 241.98

10/1/1972 244.301/1/1973 248.334/1/1973 254.687/1/1973 257.63

10/1/1973 256.251/1/1974 258.694/1/1974 256.427/1/1974 257.08

10/1/1974 254.541/1/1975 253.544/1/1975 250.457/1/1975 252.37

10/1/1975 256.621/1/1976 259.974/1/1976 265.887/1/1976 267.88

10/1/1976 269.191/1/1977 271.154/1/1977 274.307/1/1977 279.75

10/1/1977 284.751/1/1978 284.694/1/1978 285.667/1/1978 296.90

10/1/1978 299.811/1/1979 303.784/1/1979 304.297/1/1979 304.57

10/1/1979 306.761/1/1980 307.614/1/1980 308.597/1/1980 302.27

10/1/1980 301.711/1/1981 307.294/1/1981 313.677/1/1981 311.17

10/1/1981 314.951/1/1982 311.034/1/1982 305.927/1/1982 307.58

10/1/1982 306.401/1/1983 306.644/1/1983 310.457/1/1983 317.43

10/1/1983 323.691/1/1984 330.384/1/1984 336.797/1/1984 342.60

10/1/1984 345.931/1/1985 348.754/1/1985 352.047/1/1985 355.02

10/1/1985 360.561/1/1986 363.304/1/1986 366.807/1/1986 368.27

10/1/1986 371.821/1/1987 373.62

4/1/1987 375.697/1/1987 379.68

10/1/1987 382.971/1/1988 389.534/1/1988 391.547/1/1988 396.57

10/1/1988 398.621/1/1989 403.944/1/1989 407.737/1/1989 410.78

10/1/1989 414.041/1/1990 414.954/1/1990 419.287/1/1990 420.95

10/1/1990 420.941/1/1991 417.254/1/1991 415.237/1/1991 418.03

10/1/1991 419.801/1/1992 421.444/1/1992 426.077/1/1992 430.60

10/1/1992 435.041/1/1993 439.614/1/1993 440.427/1/1993 443.24

10/1/1993 445.571/1/1994 451.464/1/1994 455.857/1/1994 462.09

10/1/1994 465.071/1/1995 470.234/1/1995 471.397/1/1995 472.40

10/1/1995 476.371/1/1996 479.694/1/1996 482.977/1/1996 491.32

10/1/1996 495.601/1/1997 501.014/1/1997 504.867/1/1997 512.35

10/1/1997 518.781/1/1998 522.754/1/1998 527.697/1/1998 532.44

10/1/1998 539.471/1/1999 548.804/1/1999 553.697/1/1999 558.02

10/1/1999 565.121/1/2000 575.264/1/2000 576.777/1/2000 588.02

10/1/2000 588.521/1/2001 592.004/1/2001 590.067/1/2001 593.92

10/1/2001 592.281/1/2002 594.354/1/2002 599.437/1/2002 602.62

10/1/2002 605.681/1/2003 605.894/1/2003 608.417/1/2003 613.57

10/1/2003 623.661/1/2004 629.304/1/2004 633.457/1/2004 637.53

10/1/2004 642.271/1/2005 647.534/1/2005 654.217/1/2005 657.12

10/1/2005 662.341/1/2006 665.744/1/2006 674.157/1/2006 676.88

10/1/2006 676.971/1/2007 681.574/1/2007 682.497/1/2007 688.64

10/1/2007 693.661/1/2008 696.604/1/2008 693.517/1/2008 695.79

10/1/2008 689.331/1/2009 673.474/1/2009 664.457/1/2009 663.93

10/1/2009 666.321/1/2010 672.934/1/2010 676.827/1/2010 680.59

10/1/2010 684.971/1/2011 689.034/1/2011 689.177/1/2011 693.40

10/1/2011 695.601/1/2012 702.61

4/1/2012 706.037/1/2012 709.07

S&P 500 index base year 1950 = 100 - y axis100.00

95.40106.85110.46112.39112.01117.95120.76118.96124.26120.20130.20122.89119.90117.44125.21136.38148.17158.84176.38187.08210.72207.09217.93236.30235.51222.43217.75213.60226.76192.77190.20193.81209.74233.22253.72260.47270.64256.47262.00249.91249.56238.52265.11292.23288.56299.85304.57

298.08248.73244.43283.11298.23297.62313.67327.29342.23353.98360.92365.15370.61355.46381.38388.21375.15349.40310.13339.56363.53368.38375.51368.70367.90380.18388.99379.02369.16340.46338.77316.05295.33256.84283.28310.74339.79321.78314.67332.49346.82338.45342.76367.67334.66315.94318.53272.83254.82212.38

179.77184.24211.86225.74213.42230.46240.29241.41232.82234.72218.38217.30201.31191.02191.93195.69198.33193.12191.31185.85183.83188.57168.22191.63203.11202.23199.54186.44169.68164.55162.12148.43178.76195.18211.58221.14219.65216.02202.22192.01207.04215.17223.49236.23226.60251.30289.91290.19284.72314.66

339.58360.48321.48286.41296.66300.41305.29311.76324.86352.94365.90353.01347.07365.24304.33319.90371.50369.31372.48398.57386.34390.79384.83403.75407.04409.77421.19427.98401.38402.39410.41409.49442.33483.49501.71526.42547.74542.69586.19637.09630.82762.64778.63788.61905.41937.50832.82

1005.451062.401095.90

1022.441117.221128.541127.651056.881009.06

889.77897.65801.46851.69818.10663.70623.59652.22640.58713.98742.76808.95797.49772.38774.19819.53791.57827.46791.57853.05854.89819.23893.74930.75936.79965.78974.83864.09843.93756.16591.76542.31526.16574.86653.34685.94726.53655.21708.63770.46783.18775.96705.32759.05

797.13785.02

Vertical doted line in graphX = March 1st, 1995. Label for doted line "CAPE change point"

LabelGraph 2. The gap between S&P returns and nominal GDP growth

Source of dataSource: Authors data

Original graph ploted in R software