23
1 ON MONITORING MIXTURE WEIBULL PROCESSES USING MIXTURE QUANTITY CHARTS Zaheer Ahmed, Muhammad Riaz and Muhammad Aslam ABSTRACT The study proposes a cumulative quantity control chart, based on the mixture of two components Weibull model, namely -chart. The design structure of the proposed chart is developed by using the cumulative quantity examined between non-conformities () as the charting statistic. The performance of the proposed -chart is evaluated in terms of some popular measures like average run length and average length of inspection, and the existing cumulative quantity control chart is discussed as its special case. An extension of the proposal is also suggested in the form of -chart based on the cumulative quantity between non-conformities until nonconformities happened in one or both components of the mixture model. The implementation of the proposed chart is also shown on a dataset for practical demonstration. KEY WORDS: Average Run Length (); Average Length of Inspection ( ); CQC Chart; MWQ-chart; Nonconformities.

ON MONITORING MIXTURE WEIBULL PROCESSES USING MIXTURE QUANTITY CHARTS

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1

ON MONITORING MIXTURE WEIBULL PROCESSES

USING MIXTURE QUANTITY CHARTS

Zaheer Ahmed, Muhammad Riaz and Muhammad Aslam

ABSTRACT

The study proposes a cumulative quantity control chart, based on the mixture of two

components Weibull model, namely -chart. The design structure of the proposed chart

is developed by using the cumulative quantity examined between non-conformities ( ) as the

charting statistic. The performance of the proposed -chart is evaluated in terms of

some popular measures like average run length and average length of inspection, and the

existing cumulative quantity control chart is discussed as its special case. An extension of the

proposal is also suggested in the form of -chart based on the cumulative quantity

between non-conformities until nonconformities happened in one or both components of

the mixture model. The implementation of the proposed chart is also shown on a dataset for

practical demonstration.

KEY WORDS:

Average Run Length ( ); Average Length of Inspection ( ); CQC Chart; MWQ-chart;

Nonconformities.

2

1. INTRODUCTION

Control chart is one of the popular tools among the “magnificent seven” and is commonly

used for monitoring the discrete and/or continuous variables. These charts may be classified

into variable and attribute control charts. In the list of attribute charts, the and control

charts are quite popular for nonconformities. The control structure for these charts may be

constructed using the Poisson distribution and under certain circumstances normal

approximation theory may also serve the purpose. For constant events occurrence rates,

cumulative quantity/time control charts are suggested in literature like CQC chart, CQC-

chart, -chart (cf. Chan et al. (2000), Xie et al. (2002a&b) among others). In CCC and CQC

charts, the plotting statistic is the cumulative count and quantity until one nonconforming

item and nonconformities are observed. Chan et al. (2002) proposed the cumulative

probability control chart (CPC) to overcome the drawbacks of CQC and CCC control charts.

In (CPC) chart the plotted statistic is the cumulative probability instead of cumulative count

and cumulative quantity. Mehmood at el. (2012) suggested control charts for location based

on different sampling schemes. Different type of ranked set sampling strategies for

monitoring the process mean are suggested by Al-Omari and Haq (2011). Following these

authors, Majeed et al. (2012) proposed MCCC-chart for mixture Geometric process

characteristics when population of nonconforming items consists of two sub-populations due

to two types of defects.

Taking the inspiration from the said approaches, this study is planned to introduce a

mixture quantity control chart based on the mixture of Weibull distributed processes (namely

MWQ-chart) when population of nonconformities consists of two sub-populations due to two

types of nonconformities. The study proposal covers both the classical and Bayesian setups

3

for process monitoring. The rest of the article is arranged as: Section 2 outlines the CQC-

chart based on simple Weibull model and introduces the MWQ-chart followed by the

description about the Bayes estimates and the corresponding Bayes posterior risks using

informative and uninformative priors under different Loss Functions; Section 3 provides the

control structure of the proposed MWQ-chart and discusses its special cases; Section 4

evaluates the performance of the proposals and provides some comparisons; for

demonstration purposes, an application of the proposed chart with a real dataset is given in

Section 5; finally, Section 6 includes some concluding remarks and suggestions for the future

research.

2. CHART FOR MIXTURE WEIBULL MODELS

In many reliability applications, Weibull model appears as an appropriate choice for the

Time Between Events (TBE) data which may cover increasing/decreasing and constant event

occurrence rates. Let the said rate for poisson process and represents the cumulative

quantity monitored between nonconformities, are distributed Weibully with mean (

⁄ ) ( and being the scale and shape parameters respectively) and cumulative

distribution function (CDF) given as:

( ) ( ) (1)

The CQC-chart for the said process behavior is defined in the form of its control limits (i.e.

Upper Control Limit (UCL), Central Line (CL) and Lower Control Limit (LCL)) by Xie et al.

(2002a) and is given as:

UCL: (

)

[ (

)]

, CL: (

)

[ ( )]

, LCL (

)

[ (

)]

where represents the false alarm rate and serves the purpose of plotting quantity for

process monitoring. The one sided versions may easily be defined on the similar lines.

4

In many practical situations of reliability monitoring the two components mixture of

Weibull models suitably models the phenomenon of two types of nonconformities e.g. the

fracture of silica optical fibers are due to strength of optical fibers and ceramic materials

which leads to a mixture Weibull model. For such processes we develop the structure of the

mixture cumulative quantity control chart (MWQ-chart) under classical and Bayesian

frameworks. Let and represent the fractions of nonconformities produced by Poisson

process from sub-populations I and II respectively then the distribution of (that becomes a

two component Weibull distribution) and its corresponding CDF are given as:

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2)

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

where ( ) and ( ) represent the two density functions and ( ) and ( ) are the

corresponding CDFs for the said mixture Weibull model. The quantities and

represent mixing proportions such that 0 1. By substitutions, (3) may be expressed as:

( ) { ( )} ( ){ (

)} ( )

The scale parameters and , and the separating quantity are generally unknown

and hence need to be estimated. We estimate these quantities here using Maximum

Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Bayesian Estimation particularly the Bayes Estimates

(BEs) of these unknown parameters using different loss functions. The loss functions

considered here include Squared Error Loss Function (SELF), Quadratic Loss Function

(QLF), Weighted Loss Function (WLF) and Precautionary Loss Function (PLF). The prior

choices covered are Uniform Prior (UP), Jeffreys Prior (JP) and Informative Prior (IP). The

Bayes Posterior Risks (BPRs) are also worked out for the above mentioned cases.

MLEs: For a two-component mixture with items under study, let be the failures due to

reason 1; for reason 2 and represents the survivals at time/quantity when

testing is stopped. Then the likelihood expression is given as (cf. Mendenhall and Hader

(1958)):

5

( ) {∏ ( )

}{∏( ) ( )

} { ( )}

where is defined as the th failure belonging to sub-populations, where

and . For the MLEs of and of the aforementioned mixture model we have the

following non-closed form expressions given as:

∑ ( )

( ) (

)

{ ( ) ( ) (

)}

∑ ( )

( ) (

)

{ ( ) ( ) (

)}

( )

( )( ){ (

) ( )}

{ ( ) ( ) (

)}

These expressions can be solved iteratively using a suitable package like SAS .

BEs and BPRs under SELF using the UP: The closed form expressions of BEs and

the BPRs ( ) of and under SELF assuming the UP are given as:

( ) ( ) ∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

( ) ( ) ∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

( ) ( ) ∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

Where ∑ ( )

( ) and ∑ ( )

( )

6

BEs and BPRs under PLF using the UP: The closed form expressions for the BEs

and BPRs under PLF assuming the UP are given by:

( ) ( ) √∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

[

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

{

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

}

]

}

( ) ( ) √∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

[

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

]

}

( ) ( ) √

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

[

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

]

}

7

BEs and BPRs under SELF using the JP: The closed form expressions for the BEs

and BPRs of and under SELF assuming the JP are given as:

( ) ( ) ∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

( ) ( ) ∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

( ) ( ) ∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

BEs and BPRs under PLF using the JP: The closed form expressions for the BEs

and BPRs under PLF assuming the non-informative (Jeffreys) prior are given by:

( ) ( ) √∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

[

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

]

}

8

( ) ( ) √∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( )

[

{

√∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( ) }

{∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

}

]

}

( ) ( ) √

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

[

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

{

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

( )

( )

}

]

}

BEs and BPRs under SELF using Gamma-Gamma-Beta (G-G-B) Prior:

The closed form expressions for the BEs and BPRs of and under SELF assuming

the informative (G-G-B) prior are given by:

( ) ( ) ∑ (

)

( ) ( )( )

( )( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )( )

( )( )

( ) ( ) ∑ ( ) ( )

( )( )

( )( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )( )

( )( )

( )

}

9

( ) ( ) ∑ (

)

( ) ( )( )

( )( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )( )

( )( )

( ) ( ) ∑ ( ) ( )

( )( )

( )( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )( )

( )( )

( )

}

( ) ( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

( )

}

BEs and BPRs under PLF using the Informative (G-G-B) Prior: The

following are the closed form expressions for the BEs and BPRs under PLF assuming the

informative (G-G-B) prior are given as:

( ) ( ) √

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

[

{

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

}

{

∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

}

]

}

10

( ) ( ) √

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

[

{

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

}

{

∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

}

]

}

( ) ( ) √

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

( ) ( )

[

{

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

}

{

∑ (

)

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

∑ ( )

( ) ( )

( )

( )

( )

}

]

}

where ( ) are the hyper-parameters to be elicited and we have

accomplished this task in our study using ‘PROC SYSNLIN’ command in the

SAS package using the technique of prior predictive intervals described by

Aslam (2003).

3. CONTROL STRUCTURE OF MWQ CHART

In this section we provide control charting structure of the proposed MWQ chart for

an improved monitoring of process behavior. Let us introduce some suitable substitution in

equation (4) to simplify the CDF of mixture model i.e. ( ), (

)

11

and where is some specified constant. With these substitutions and after some

simplification we have:

( ) { ( ) } ( )

The appropriate value of will depend upon the fraction of nonconformities produced by

each sub-population. In order, to construct the limits of MWQ chart by fixing the probability

of false alarm rate , ( ) in (5) is set equal to ⁄ , ⁄ and ⁄ for UCL,LCL and CL

respectively. Hence the two sided control structure of the MWQ-chart is as follows:

UCL: (

)

[ {

( )

⁄}]

, (

)

[ {

( )

⁄}]

(

)

[ {

( )

( ⁄ )}]

The one sided structures may be defined on the similar lines. The unknown quantities in these

structures may be estimated using the expressions derived in Section 2. The cumulative

quantity between non-conformities Q is plotted on the control chart against the sample

number. It is to be noted that the quantity Q is reset to zero whenever non-conformity occurs.

The process is deemed stable as long as Q stays consistent with the control structure. If it

exceeds UCL (improvement) or is less than LCL (deterioration) it means that the process is

working under unnatural variations and hence preventive measures and corrective actions

must be taken for process adjustment.

A Special Case: It is to be mentioned here that the CQC chart based on simple Weibull

model becomes a special case of the proposed MWQ chart when the value of specified

constant is equal to one i.e. ( ). In this case monitoring of process parameters is based on

the following structure:

UCL: (

)

[ (

)]

CL: (

)

[ ( )]

LCL: (

)

[ (

)]

12

4. PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONS

This section is devoted to evaluate the performance of the proposal of the study for an

effective monitoring of process ability. We have used different popular performance

measures including Average Run Length (ARL) and Average Length of Inspection (ALI) for

different objectives.

ARL Analysis: ARL is defined as the average number of samples we have to wait to receive

an out of control signal. .For the in control situations ARL is expected to be larger and for out

of control situations should be low. The algebraic expressions for , and

(where L, U and L&U refer to lower, upper and two sided structures, respectively)

are given as (cf. Chan et al. (2002)):

[( ) { (

) } ]

[{ (

) } ]

[{( )

}{ ( ) }

]

where =

is the amount of shift to be detected. Now we have the following substitutions:

For one sided lower structure, by substituting (

)

[ {

( )

}]

we get

( )

( ){ ( ) }

. For one sided upper structure, by substituting

(

)

[ {

( )

}]

we get

( )

( ){ ( ) }

. Similarly, for two

sided structure, by substituting and we get

( ) ( ( ))

[{ ( ) }{ ( ) (

)}].

We have carried out ARL computations for the proposed MWQ chart for different

choices of concerned quantities and varying amounts of shifts. The resulting outcomes are

presented in the form of useful graphs for some selective choices. We have taken

along the vertical axis and

along the horizontal axis for better appearance. The graphical

13

representation of , and using and

at are presented in Figures 1-3. These graphical displays advocate that the

detection ability of the proposed MWQ chart improves with the increase in the values of

and/or . The proposed chart exhibits more generalized and effective design structure than

CQC-chart (based on simple Weibull model) both for improvement and deterioration in the

process behavior. It is worth mentioning here that the proposed charting structure has issue of

non-maximal and upward biased behavior for improvement (cf. Chan et al. (2002)) but

that behavior seems maximal and unbiased for deterioration. Maximal and unbiased

behaviors are also noted for both improvement and deterioration simultaneously when .

The ARL behavior of the proposed control charting scheme may be seen from Figures 4

where the proposed control charting scheme outperform with increase in the values

probability of false alarm rate corresponding to variation in .

Figure (1a-1d) plots lnARL against Exp ( ) for the MWQ-chart to detect the shift in improvement

when with corresponding weight=0.40.

14

Figure (2a-2d) plots lnARL against Exp ( ) for the MWQ-chart to detect the shift in deterioration

when with corresponding weight=0.40.

Figure (3a-3d) plots lnARL against Exp ( ) for the MWQ-chart to detect the shift in improvement

as well as deterioration when with corresponding

weight=0.40.

15

Figure.4 plots lnARL against Exp ( )for the MWQ-chart to detect the shift in deterioration,

improvement and deterioration as well as improvement simultaneously corresponding to = 0, 0.10,

0.50 and 0.90.

16

ALI Analysis: ALI is another effective performance measure of control charts for monitoring

the non-conformities of a process. If the length of inspection required for plotting a point on

the control chart is a random variable (with expected value ( )) then the ALI value is

given by ( ) . We have computed the ALIs (following Chan et al. (2002)) for alarms

on MWQ chart using the fraction of nonconformities in the sample as . For the said

purposes, extensive simulations are carried out for the computation of BEs under different

loss functions using the informative prior because of its dominance in terms of least BPRs.

The ALIs are computed at and when and

. Different loss functions including QLF, SELF, WLF and PLF are used and

17

the resulting graphs are presented in Figures 5-7. It is observed that we have to inspect

varying number of items to get a defective one depending upon the choice of different loss

functions. The PLF appeared relatively on superior end while the others also exhibited

satisfactory performance. Thus the proposed MWQ chart performs well when some suitable

loss function (like PLF) is used to obtain the BEs for the mixture model, as obvious from

Figures 5-7.

Figure.5 Average length of inspections (ALIs) graphs for the MWQ-chart to detect the shift in

improvement = 0.0005 .

Figure.6 Average length of inspections (ALIs) graphs for the MWQ-chart to detect the shift in

deterioration as well as improvement when = 0.0005 .

18

Figure.7Average length of inspections (ALIs) graphs for the MWQ-chart to detect the shift in

deterioration when = 0.0005 .

5. AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

Many authors like Ohta et. al. (2001), Wu et. al. (2009) and Kaminsky et. al. (1992)

have recommended providing an illustrative example for demonstrating the application of

their proposed control charting methodology. In this section we provide application of the

proposed MWQ chart for a hypothetical data set and samples of size 250 meters are

scrutinized continuously. This scrutiny process continues until nonconformity is observed in

the sample so the plotted statistic is the cumulative quantity until nonconformity is

experiential. Let us consider the defect rate of a high yield process is 0.00001, the

probability of false alarm rate is , the value of probabilistic weight and

when = 0.20. Using these settings the control structure for two sided MWQ chart is

given as: = 4387.8197, = 1045.1470, == 241.1126.

The tabular form of the data set taken from a Poisson process comprises ‘i.c’ stands

for ‘in-control’, ‘im’ stands for ‘improved’, ‘n.d’ stands for ‘no decision’ and ‘o.c’ stands for

‘out-of-control’ (cf. Chan et al. (2002)). When we closely observed the Table 5.1, we noticed

that an asterisk “ ” sign appears when a non-conformity is observed and process is resetting

and quantity with an asterisk “ ” sign is added to next sample quantity when process is

resetting in improved region. Also sign seems in the graphical display of the hypothetical

19

data set (given in Figure 09) with the quantity having an asterisk “ ” sign and whenever a

defect is observed and cumulative quantity at that time above the LCL like in our case sample

number 04and 29. We also noticed that whenever a defect is experiential and cumulative

quantity at that time below the LCL then the whole process is revised or restarts the process

like sample number 05 and sign looks in the graphical display of the tabular data

set(given in Figure 09) when observed cumulative quantity above the UCL. For better

graphical description of the data set we take log based control structure so two sided MWQ-

chart with the following control limits i.e. = ( ) , =

( ) and = ( ) and the graphs below

showing MWQ-chart verses CQC-chart (based on simple Weibull model) in the light of

aforementioned data set where specific lines represents the control structure of MWQ-chart

and CQC-chart (based on simple Weibull model) respectively.

Table 1 Monitoring results for a Poisson process

Sample

number

Defect

observed?

Cumulative

Quantity inspected

Q

Indication Reset Q to zero?

1 No 250 LCL n.d. No

2 No 500≥LCL i.c. No

3 No 750≥LCL i.c. No

4 Yes 977.4≥LCL i.c. Yes

4 No *22.6 n.d. No

5 Yes

234.9 LCL

o.c.

Yes

1 No 250 LCL n.d. No

2 No 500≥LCL i.c. No

3 No 750≥LCL i.c. No

4 No 1000≥LCL i.c. No

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

20

17 No 4250≥LCL i.c. No

18 No 4500>UCL Im. No

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

28 No 7000>UCL Im. No

29 Yes 7155.2>UCL Im. Yes

29 No *94.8 n.d. No

30

.

No

.

344.8≤LCL

.

n.d.

.

No

.

. . . . .

Figure 8: Comparison of MWQ-chart with WCQC-chart using hypothetical data set given in

Table 1.

The graphical representation given in Figure 8 shows that MWQ-chart outperforms than the

usual CQC-chart (based on simple Weibull model) in detecting the shift in deterioration as

early as possible as compared to CQC-chart (based on simple Weibull model).

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0 1 2 3 4 4 5 1 2 3 4 17 18 28 29 29 30

Log1

0(Q

)

Production process monitoring by MWQ- chart

log10(LCL-MWQ)

log10(CL-MWQ)

log10(UCL-MWQ)

log10(LCL-WCQC)

log10(CL-WCQC)

log10(UCL-WCQC)

21

5.1 Case Study

The following 48 observations are taken from Chan et al. (2000) and represent the

time between failures (t) of a capacitor in an electricity supply plant which is working in a

stable condition. The data are in hours and are arranged in order of the times of occurrence

of the failures.

Table 2

836.90 1760.00 1250.50 2639.50 867.40 262.53 2050.50 2540.40 2684.00 2608.40

1993.70 2530.70 500.50 1780.00 1759.00 2590.60 3502.80 860.40 445.65 2659.40

1850.30 2520.50 2500.50 1260.60 600.10 1102.58 2003.15 644.99 525.40 1688.20

1555.12 1506.26 2321.80 1352.03 1852.55 1740.60 1567.01 742.21 1469.79 1713.03

1275.16 1586.53 2234.49 1053.49 1123.24 2064.88 1860.57 745.63

The mean value of the aforementioned data set is =1637.36 = (

)

(

) and

=

77090.34 where represents an estimate of the failure rate for the capacitor. From

Section 2 and Section 3, we construct control structure of CQC-chart (based on simple

Weibull model) and MWQ chart by letting = and control structure of both charts is as

follows:

UCL = 3658.80, CL = 813.81 and LCL = 12.69 for CQC-chart (based on simple Weibull

model) and UCL = 3689.05, CL = 878.80 and LCL = 202.71 for MWQ chart corresponding

to false alarm rate = 0.0027. From figure 09 below we observe that all the given data points

falls within the control structure of both CQC (based on simple Weibull model) and MWQ

charts and hence the process is working under stable condition but the MWQ chart

outperform than CQC-chart (based on simple Weibull model) in terms of better control

structure.

22

Figure 9: Comparing MWQ-chart with WCQC for Case Study data set given in Table 2.

6. CONCLUSIONS

In statistical quality control, mixture distributions play a vital role and they become

even more useful when multiple causes of failure can be simultaneously modeled. Under such

circumstances MWQ-chart based on mixture of Weibull model proposed in this article

outperform the usual CQC-chart in detecting the shift in deterioration, shift in improvement

and shift in deterioration and improvement simultaneously. Further, use of Bayesian

paradigm for estimation instead of classical framework provides better estimates of scale

parameters as well as probabilistic weight of the mixture model.

This study may be varied for many other lifetime distributions such as Gamma, Lognormal,

and Rayleigh distributions. The concept of mixture may be extended for the Shewhart control

charts commonly based on Normal distribution theory and cumulative sum control charts and

also exponentially weighted moving average control charts. The cumulative quantity is

prolonged until nonconformity is observed instead of first non-conformity and control

chart outperform in the former in terms of performance criterion. But the cost of inspection is

increased as the efficiency of control chart increases so there is a trade-off between the

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Qu

an

tity

/Tim

e Figure 09

WCQC(U)

WCQC(C)

WCQC(L)

MWQ(U)

MWQ(C)

MWQ(L)

23

performance of control chart and cost of inspection. Furthermore, multivariate generalization

of MWQ-chart may be prospective theme for additional research in this region.

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