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Inte
rnat
ion
al F
inan
ce a
nd
Gro
wth
in D
evel
opin
g C
oun
trie
s: W
hat
Hav
e W
e Le
arn
ed? Mau
rice
Obs
tfel
dU
nive
rsity
of C
alifo
rnia
, Ber
kele
yAp
ril 9
, 200
7
Out
line
of t
his
pres
enta
tion
!Tr
ends
in g
loba
l fin
anci
al in
tegr
atio
n!
Why
do
coun
trie
s se
em t
o pr
efer
fin
anci
al
open
ing?
!Th
e ris
k of
cris
es!
Evid
ence
on
gain
s fr
om f
inan
cial
ope
ning
?!
The
criti
cal i
mpo
rtan
ce o
f th
e in
stitu
tiona
l se
ttin
g!
Com
plem
enta
ry m
acro
econ
omic
and
ex
chan
ge-r
ate
polic
ies
How
is f
inan
cial
inte
grat
ion
mea
sure
d?
"D
e ju
re m
easu
res
�e.
g., b
ased
on
expl
icit
regu
latio
ns
reco
rded
in t
he I
MF�
s AR
EAER
"Ca
n bi
ndin
g co
ntro
ls b
e de
sign
ed?
"H
ow s
tric
t is
enf
orce
men
t?"
Subj
ectiv
ity o
f co
ding
"D
e fa
cto
mea
sure
s"
Pric
e m
easu
res
"Q
uant
ity m
easu
res
(oft
en t
hese
are
com
posi
te P
and
Q)
"As
set
stoc
ks"
Savi
ng-in
vest
men
t co
rrel
atio
ns"
Volu
me
of f
inan
cial
flo
ws
"M
arke
t ca
pita
lizat
ion
shar
es (
e.g.
, Edi
son-
War
nock
)
Lane
�M
ilesi
-Fer
rett
i dat
a on
in
tern
atio
nal i
nves
tmen
t po
sitio
ns
Figu
re 2
: Ass
ets
plus
liab
ilitie
s, 1
970-
2004
(rat
io to
gro
up G
DP)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50 19
7019
7219
7419
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
04
Ass
ets
+ Li
abilit
ies
(H)
Ass
ets
+ Li
abilit
ies
(E)
Ass
ets
+ Li
abilit
ies
(D)
Ass
ets
+ Li
abilit
ies
(G)
Styl
ized
fac
ts!
On
this
mea
sure
, fin
anci
al in
tegr
atio
n si
nce
1990
ha
s pr
ocee
ded
mos
t ra
pidl
y by
far
for
the
in
dust
rial c
ount
ries.
!Bu
t it
has
also
pro
ceed
ed r
elat
ivel
y qu
ickl
y fo
r em
ergi
ng m
arke
ts.
!Le
ss t
wo-
way
ass
et t
rade
for
mos
t em
ergi
ng
mar
kets
tha
n fo
r hi
gh in
com
e gr
oup.
!N
o ge
nera
lized
ret
reat
fro
m o
penn
ess
afte
r th
e 19
97-9
8 cr
ises
.!
De
jure
mea
sure
s al
so s
ugge
st p
rogr
essi
ve
emer
ging
-mar
ket
finan
cial
ope
ning
.
Two
rece
nt s
urge
s in
cap
ital i
nflo
ws
19
92-9
7 ave
rage
2003
-06 a
verag
e Cu
rren
t acc
ount
balan
ce
all
deve
loping
coun
tries
−8
9.3
335.9
Net e
xter
nal f
inan
cing
all
deve
loping
coun
tries
28
9.2
548.1
Incr
ease
in re
serve
s
all de
velop
ing co
untri
es
66.9
481.2
Curr
ent a
ccou
nt ba
lance
Ex C
hina
, Rus
sia, M
iddl
e Eas
t −9
1.0
−3.1
Net e
xter
nal f
inan
cing
Ex
Chi
na, R
ussia
, Mid
dle E
ast
218.2
27
2.0
Incr
ease
in re
serve
s
Ex C
hina
, Rus
sia, M
iddl
e Eas
t 36
.9 11
8.1
Why
cho
ose
inte
rnat
iona
lfin
anci
al
inte
grat
ion?
As
a co
mpl
emen
t to
do
mes
ticfin
anci
al d
evel
opm
ent
�A g
row
ing
body
of
empi
rical
ana
lyse
s, in
clud
ing
firm
-leve
l stu
dies
,indu
stry
-leve
l stu
dies
, ind
ivid
ual
coun
try-
stud
ies,
tim
e-se
ries
stud
ies,
pan
el
inve
stig
atio
ns, a
nd b
road
cro
ss-c
ount
ry
com
paris
ons,
dem
onst
rate
a s
tron
g po
sitiv
e lin
k be
twee
n th
e fu
nctio
ning
of
the
finan
cial
sys
tem
an
d lo
ng-r
un e
cono
mic
gro
wth
.�R
oss
Levi
ne, H
andb
ook
of E
cono
mic
Gro
wth
(200
5).
Why
is in
tern
atio
nal f
inan
cial
in
tegr
atio
n co
mpl
emen
tary
to
enha
nced
dom
estic
fin
ance
?
!W
ith a
mor
e so
phis
ticat
ed d
omes
tic f
inan
cial
se
ctor
, and
exp
ande
d in
tern
atio
nal t
rade
, ca
pita
l con
trol
s ar
e ha
rder
to
enfo
rce
!O
peni
ng u
p fin
anci
ally
fos
ters
com
petit
ion
and
effic
ienc
y in
the
dom
estic
fin
anci
al s
ecto
r!
Ther
e is
gre
ater
pre
ssur
e to
ado
pt f
orei
gn
best
pra
ctic
e!
Fina
ncia
l ope
ning
may
wea
ken
the
polit
ical
an
d ec
onom
ic p
ower
of
vest
ed in
tere
sts
Inst
itutio
nal s
caff
oldi
ng m
atte
rs
!Ex
pand
ed d
omes
tic f
inan
ce m
ay b
e de
stab
ilizi
ng
abse
nt s
ound
inst
itutio
ns, e
.g. t
hose
rel
atin
g to
!
Gov
erna
nce
and
rule
of
law
!Pr
uden
tial o
vers
ight
!M
acro
econ
omic
sta
bilit
y!
Thes
e in
stitu
tions
are
als
o ne
cess
ary
to s
afel
y em
brac
e fin
anci
al o
peni
ng;
but
we
also
hav
e!
Sove
reig
n ac
tors
!Cu
rren
cies
!Reg
ulat
ory
gaps
The
cris
is p
robl
em 1
!Fi
nanc
ial o
peni
ng, u
nder
the
wro
ng
cond
ition
s, c
an r
aise
the
like
lihoo
d of
cris
es!
We
have
lear
ned
that
vol
atile
cap
ital f
low
s th
emse
lves
can
con
trib
ute
to c
rises
�in
si
tuat
ions
whe
re a
cris
is m
ight
not
hav
e be
en
othe
rwis
e in
evita
ble
!Cr
ises
can
sta
rt w
ith c
urre
ncy,
ban
k se
ctor
, co
rpor
ates
, gov
ernm
ent
debt
�w
ith
mul
tidire
ctio
nal p
ositi
ve f
eedb
ack
loop
s
The
cris
is p
robl
em 2
The
cris
is p
robl
em 3
Two
key
vuln
erab
ilitie
s:!
Mat
urity
mis
mat
ch!
Liab
ilitie
s sh
ort,
ass
ets
long
!Im
plie
s lo
wer
liqu
idity
at
all l
evel
s, m
ore
seve
re �
sudd
en s
top�
dyna
mic
s!
Curr
ency
mis
mat
ch!
Liab
ility
dol
lariz
atio
n!
�Orig
inal
sin
�fo
r ex
tern
al li
abili
ties
The
cris
is p
robl
em 4
�Dev
alua
tion
may
pro
duce
ano
ther
typ
e of
wea
lth e
ffec
t w
hen
som
e gr
oups
of
the
coun
try
have
deb
ts t
o fo
reig
ners
ex
pres
sed
in t
erm
s of
for
eign
cur
renc
ies.
A d
eval
uatio
n w
ill
then
incr
ease
the
val
ue o
f th
e de
bt e
xpre
ssed
in d
omes
tic
curr
enci
es a
nd w
ill e
xert
a d
epre
ssin
g in
fluen
ce o
n th
e ex
pen-
ditu
res
of t
hese
gro
ups,
esp
ecia
lly w
hen
the
dom
estic
pric
es
they
rec
eive
for
the
sal
e of
the
ir pr
oduc
ts o
r se
rvic
es d
o no
t in
crea
se p
ropo
rtio
nally
with
the
dev
alua
tion.
Whe
n a
coun
try
has
a ne
t fo
reig
n de
bt, t
his
effe
ct w
ill m
ake
mor
e lik
ely
an
impr
ovem
ent
in t
he t
rade
bal
ance
and
a d
rop
in o
utpu
t fo
llow
ing
deva
luat
ion,
esp
ecia
lly w
hen
the
debt
is h
eld
by t
he
priv
ate
sect
or a
nd is
con
cent
rate
d in
sho
rt-t
erm
mat
uriti
es.�
Carlo
s F.
Día
z-Al
ejan
dro,
Exc
hang
e-Ra
te D
eval
uatio
n in
a S
emi-
Indu
stria
lized
Cou
ntry
: Th
e Ex
perie
nce
of A
rgen
tina,
195
5-19
61(1
965)
.
The
cris
is p
robl
em 5
!W
ith c
urre
ncy
mis
mat
ch, a
n un
expe
cted
de
prec
iatio
n ca
n w
orse
n fir
m b
alan
ce s
heet
s,
harm
ing
inve
stm
ent
!It
can
ham
mer
ban
k ca
pita
l, ei
ther
dire
ctly
or
by r
ende
ring
bank
bor
row
ers
unab
le t
o pa
y de
bts
they
ow
e to
ban
ks!
Rea
l gov
ernm
ent
debt
ris
es, d
irect
ly a
nd d
ue
to im
plic
it or
exp
licit
bailo
ut g
uara
ntee
s !
This
fur
ther
wea
kens
the
cur
renc
y!
But
mon
etar
y tig
hten
ing
wor
sens
the
plig
ht o
f sh
ort-
term
bor
row
ers,
not
ably
ban
ks
Out
put
in c
rises
!Fo
r a
typi
cal i
ndus
tria
l cou
ntry
, out
put
bott
oms
in t
he y
ear
prec
edin
ga
curr
ency
cr
isis
!Bu
t fo
r a
typi
cal d
evel
opin
g co
untr
y, t
he
trou
gh is
the
sam
eye
ar a
s th
e cu
rren
cy c
risis
!H
utch
ison
and
Noy
(20
05)
put
the
aver
age
cost
of
an e
mer
ging
-mar
ket
curr
ency
cris
is a
t a
cum
ulat
ive
5-8%
of
outp
ut, o
f a
bank
ing
cris
is a
t a
cum
ulat
ive
10-1
3%, w
ith t
he
effe
cts
addi
tive
The
open
-eco
nom
y tr
ilem
ma
!An
ope
n ec
onom
y ca
n en
joy
only
tw
o of
: ex
chan
ge s
tabi
lity,
cap
ital m
obili
ty, d
omes
tic
orie
ntat
ion
of m
onet
ary
polic
y (e
.g.,
an
infla
tion
targ
et)
!Bu
t fo
r em
ergi
ng m
arke
ts, c
urre
ncy
mis
mat
ch
mak
es it
diff
icul
t to
flo
at a
s fr
eely
as
indu
stria
l cou
ntrie
s do
!So
the
re c
an b
e �f
ear
of f
loat
ing,
�w
ith f
ree
mon
etar
y po
licy
com
prom
ised
Capi
tal m
obili
ty c
an f
acili
tate
cris
es.
Can
we
mea
sure
its
bene
fits?
!Fo
r po
orer
cou
ntrie
s w
ith lo
w s
avin
g ra
tes,
fin
anci
al g
loba
lizat
ion
can
mak
e sc
arce
cap
ital
avai
labl
e, r
aisi
ng w
elfa
re a
nd g
row
th!
It c
an a
llow
ris
k di
vers
ifica
tion,
low
erin
g th
e va
riabi
lity
of c
onsu
mpt
ion
rela
tive
to o
utpu
t!
It c
an d
isci
plin
e po
licie
s an
d tr
ansf
er v
ario
us
type
s of
kno
w-h
ow, r
aisi
ng T
FP �
!�
in t
heor
y, a
t le
ast
The
allo
catio
n of
ric
h-co
untr
y sa
ving
s
!N
ot m
uch
capi
tal f
low
s fr
om r
ich
to p
oor
coun
trie
s re
lativ
e to
sim
ple
theo
retic
al b
ench
mar
ks (
Luca
s)!
Inde
ed, f
or d
evel
opin
g co
untr
ies,
hig
her
grow
th is
co
rrel
ated
with
hig
her
savi
ng a
nd s
urpl
uses
in t
he
curr
ent
acco
unt
(Pra
sad
et a
l. 20
06;
Aize
nman
et
al.)
!Al
loca
tion
puzz
le o
f G
ourin
chas
and
Jea
nne
(200
7):
the
capi
tal t
hat
does
flo
w t
o de
velo
ping
cou
ntrie
s te
nds
to e
nd u
p in
low
-pro
duct
ivity
loca
les
!FD
I, w
hich
has
the
bes
t-do
cum
ente
d pr
o-gr
owth
ef
fect
s on
rec
ipie
nt c
ount
ries,
doe
s, h
owev
er, s
eem
to
fol
low
the
con
vent
iona
l neo
clas
sica
l pat
tern
of
flow
ing
from
ric
her
to p
oore
r co
untr
ies
Cros
s-se
ctio
nal s
tudi
es o
f fin
anci
al o
peni
ng a
nd g
row
th!
In g
ener
al t
hese
stu
dies
indi
cate
litt
le o
r no
rel
atio
n be
twee
n fin
anci
al o
penn
ess
and
grow
th (
see
Pras
ad e
t al
. 200
3)!
But
they
tak
e no
acc
ount
of
the
timin
g of
libe
raliz
atio
n!
Nor
is t
he t
heor
etic
al b
asis
for
the
pr
edic
tion
bein
g te
sted
ver
y cl
ear
(Hen
ry 2
006)
Stud
ies
of d
ynam
ic e
ffec
ts 1
!Ev
ent
stud
y ap
proa
ch o
f H
enry
sug
gest
s po
sitiv
e ef
fect
s of
sto
ck-m
arke
t lib
eral
izat
ions
on
cos
t of
cap
ital,
equi
ty v
alue
s, in
vest
men
t!
Beka
ert
et a
l. (2
005)
pan
el s
tudy
fin
ds
impl
ausi
bly
larg
e po
sitiv
e gr
owth
eff
ects
fro
m
equi
ty-m
arke
t op
enin
g!
Beka
ert
et a
l. (2
006)
fin
d vo
latil
ity r
educ
tion,
bu
t on
ly in
a b
road
sam
ple
with
ric
h co
untr
ies
!Ca
ptur
es t
he lo
w v
olat
ility
of
indu
stria
l cou
ntrie
s,
whi
ch m
ostly
wer
e op
en in
the
sam
ple
perio
d?
Stud
ies
of d
ynam
ic e
ffec
ts 2
!So
me
maj
or p
robl
ems:
!H
ow t
o m
easu
re li
bera
lizat
ion
date
!Ty
pica
lly f
inan
cial
ope
ning
is a
ccom
pani
ed
by a
pac
kage
of
othe
r re
form
s �
rais
es t
he
iden
tific
atio
n pr
oble
m!
Fina
ncia
l lib
eral
izat
ion
may
occ
ur w
hen
futu
re e
cono
mic
con
ditio
ns lo
ok f
avor
able
!La
tter
tw
o is
sues
ref
lect
tha
t fin
anci
al
liber
aliz
atio
n is
an
endo
geno
usde
cisi
on
Mic
ro-le
vel s
tudi
es!
This
app
roac
h ho
lds
prom
ise
for
solv
ing
the
iden
tific
atio
n pr
oble
m!
If f
irms
face
sam
e m
acro
con
ditio
ns, b
ut o
nly
som
e ga
in f
inan
cial
-mar
ket
acce
ss, w
e ha
ve
trea
tmen
t an
d co
ntro
l gro
ups
of e
nter
pris
es
!Bu
t w
e ne
ed t
he id
entif
ying
con
ditio
n of
ra
ndom
sel
ectio
n in
to t
he t
wo
grou
ps!
Mitt
on (
2006
) fin
ds p
ositi
ve e
ffec
ts u
sing
dat
a w
ith f
irm-s
peci
fic d
ates
for
acc
ess
to f
orei
gn
equi
ty in
vest
ors
The
stru
ctur
al s
ettin
g 1
!Th
e em
piric
al r
ecor
d su
gges
ts li
mite
d ne
t di
rect
gain
s fo
r de
velo
ping
cou
ntrie
s!
Theo
retic
ally
, one
can
rel
ate
this
fin
ding
to
stru
ctur
al s
hort
com
ings
suc
h as
low
sh
areh
olde
r/cr
edito
r pr
otec
tion,
wea
k ru
le o
f la
w, e
tc.;
for
exa
mpl
e, s
ee S
tulz
(20
05)
!Th
ere
is s
tron
g ev
iden
ce, m
uch
of it
an
ecdo
tal,
that
inst
itutio
nal o
r st
ruct
ural
im
perf
ectio
ns c
ontr
ibut
ed t
o ge
nera
ting
cris
es
�fo
r ex
ampl
e, c
haeb
ol in
fluen
ce a
nd f
aulty
lib
eral
izat
ion
in t
he K
orea
n la
te-1
990s
cas
e
The
stru
ctur
al s
ettin
g 2
!Ar
guab
ly, f
ixed
or
heav
ily m
anag
ed e
xcha
nge
rate
s w
ere
a pr
oble
m!
Ther
e is
som
e ec
onom
etric
evi
denc
e th
at a
st
rong
er in
stitu
tiona
l sca
ffol
ding
rai
ses
the
net
bene
fits
from
fin
anci
al o
peni
ng!
Kose
et
al. (
2006
) su
gges
t fo
ur s
truc
tura
l ar
eas
whe
re im
prov
emen
ts c
an e
nhan
ce t
he
net
bene
fits
of c
apita
l inf
low
s:
The
stru
ctur
al s
ettin
g 3
1.Fi
nanc
ial-s
ecto
r de
velo
pmen
t an
d re
gula
tion
2.G
ener
al in
stitu
tiona
l qua
lity
(impa
rtia
l ju
dici
ary,
res
pect
for
con
trac
ts a
nd p
rope
rty
right
s, lo
w c
orru
ptio
n, li
mite
d ba
ilout
s, e
tc.)
3.A
mac
ro-p
olic
y fr
amew
ork
deliv
erin
g m
onet
ary
and
fisca
l sta
bilit
y, in
clud
ing
a st
able
and
via
ble
exch
ange
-rat
e re
gim
e4.
Ope
nnes
s to
tra
de in
goo
ds a
nd s
ervi
ces
Endo
gene
ity o
f in
stitu
tions
1!
Kose
et
al. (
2006
) ar
gue
that
bet
ter
inst
itutio
ns a
re a
�co
llate
ral b
enef
it�of
fin
anci
al o
peni
ng, w
hich
thu
s ra
ises
TFP
!Th
ey in
fer
that
cou
ntrie
s ne
ed n
ot a
wai
t th
orou
gh in
stitu
tiona
l ref
orm
in o
rder
to
open
up
to
glob
al f
inan
ce!
If t
rue,
thi
s is
com
fort
ing,
bec
ause
the
re is
no
fool
proo
f re
cipe
for
att
aini
ng in
stitu
tiona
l re
form
ex
ante
tha
t w
ill a
pply
to
all c
ount
ries
(Som
etim
es a
cris
is o
r tw
o w
ill c
ontr
ibut
e)
Endo
gene
ity o
f in
stitu
tions
2!
Har
d ec
onom
etric
evi
denc
e fo
r th
is
�dis
cipl
ine�
chan
nel i
s sc
ant
!Th
ere
are
som
e pe
rsua
sive
the
oret
ical
ar
gum
ents
, e.g
., se
e Raj
an a
nd Z
inga
les
(200
3) a
nd S
tulz
(20
05)
!W
e do
see
for
war
d pr
ogre
ss in
som
e co
untr
ies
!In
the
mea
ntim
e, li
bera
lizat
ion
shou
ld b
e gr
adua
l �st
artin
g w
ith F
DI
and
port
folio
eq
uity
ope
ning
, tra
de o
penn
ess,
and
mac
ro
stab
ility
Loca
l bon
d-m
arke
t de
velo
pmen
t!
A so
und,
wel
l-reg
ulat
ed d
omes
tic f
inan
cial
sy
stem
is a
lso
criti
cal
!Es
peci
ally
impo
rtan
t ar
e m
easu
res
to li
mit
curr
ency
mis
mat
ch!
For
this
rea
son
(and
for
oth
ers,
suc
h as
co
nduc
t of
mon
etar
y po
licy)
, dev
elop
men
t of
th
e do
mes
tic b
ond
mar
ket,
as
in A
sia,
hel
ps!
Evid
ence
sug
gest
s th
at t
his
deve
lopm
ent
is
stro
ngly
influ
ence
d by
infla
tion
perf
orm
ance
The
exch
ange
rat
e re
gim
e 1
!Fi
xed
but
adju
stab
le s
yste
ms
are
cris
is-p
rone
w
hen
capi
tal i
s m
obile
: if
you
draw
a li
ne in
th
e sa
nd, y
ou�d
bet
ter
thro
w t
he s
and
in t
he
whe
els
!Co
untr
ies
seem
to
be m
ovin
g to
war
d th
e po
les
of c
urre
ncy
unio
n (f
ull d
olla
rizat
ion
or
the
euro
zon
e) o
r su
bsta
ntia
l dis
cret
iona
ry
flexi
bilit
y, a
void
ing
lines
in t
he s
and
!G
reat
er d
omes
tic f
inan
cial
dev
elop
men
t fa
cilit
ates
hav
ing
mar
ket-
dete
rmin
ed r
ates
The
exch
ange
rat
e re
gim
e 2
(Fig
ure
take
n fro
m W
orld
Ban
k 20
06)
The
exch
ange
rat
e re
gim
e 3
!If
fin
anci
al o
peni
ng is
a g
oal,
a sy
stem
suc
h as
Gol
dste
in�s
(20
02)
�man
aged
flo
atin
g pl
us�
is d
esira
ble;
it c
ombi
nes:
!Ex
chan
ge-r
ate
flexi
bilit
y, r
educ
ing
cris
is
vuln
erab
ility
and
allo
win
g sh
ock
abso
rptio
n!
Mea
sure
s to
lim
it cu
rren
cy m
ism
atch
!Cr
edib
le in
flatio
n ta
rget
ing
by m
onet
ary
polic
y,
whi
ch m
ay it
self
redu
ce d
olla
rizat
ion
!W
ith c
ontr
ols
still
in p
lace
and
low
fin
anci
al
deve
lopm
ent
(Chi
na),
a b
aske
t, b
and,
cra
wl
(BBC
) à
laW
illia
mso
n m
ay b
e ap
prop
riate
Conc
lusi
on 1
!Em
ergi
ng-m
arke
t po
licym
aker
s sh
ow a
re
veal
ed p
refe
renc
e fo
r fin
anci
al o
peni
ng!
Dom
estic
fin
anci
al li
bera
lizat
ion,
whi
ch is
w
idel
y vi
ewed
as
pro-
grow
th if
don
e rig
ht,
mak
es e
xter
nal l
iber
aliz
atio
n bo
th le
ss
optio
nal a
nd m
ore
likel
y to
del
iver
net
gai
ns!
�Doi
ng it
rig
ht�
impl
ies
putt
ing
in p
lace
pr
econ
ditio
ns t
hat
will
als
o en
hanc
e th
e be
nefit
s fr
om f
inan
cial
glo
baliz
atio
n �
and
then
the
ext
ra s
peci
fic p
robl
ems
of t
he in
ter-
natio
nal m
argi
n sh
ould
be
atta
cked
at
sour
ce
Conc
lusi
on 2
!Fi
nanc
ial o
peni
ng s
houl
d be
gra
dual
and
ph
ased
, how
ever
!Ev
en t
houg
h gl
obal
izat
ion
may
, its
elf, y
ield
co
llate
ral i
nstit
utio
nal b
enef
its, w
e ha
ve li
ttle
ev
iden
ce o
n th
e sp
eed
and
relia
bilit
y of
suc
h ef
fect
s!
The
bene
fits
of e
xter
nal o
peni
ng a
re m
ost
likel
y to
be
real
ized
whe
n it
com
plem
ents
ot
her
pro-
grow
th r
efor
ms
and
an a
ppro
pria
te
mac
ro-m
onet
ary
fram
ewor
k
