BlindSpot Prince's Foundation net-positive circular economy

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The Prince’s Founda:on Masters in Sustainable Urbanism Group

A net-‐posi+ve world? Sept 2013

James Greyson

BlindSpot Think Tank


AGer 40 years of global problem solving why are problems overall worse?

Can we map the solu:on space and find a new category of solu:ons?

What is posi:ve development? How to get net posi:ve impacts?

Is it possible to reverse intractable problems?

Keywords: Biochar, precycling, circular economy, global security, whole system policy switches

A net-‐posi:ve world?

Road to Rio+20 (ISCIENCES, L.L.C.)

1972 | 1982 | 1992 | 2002 | 2012

See also: Sustainable Development Timelines, Stakeholder Forum

2012 Rio de Janeiro

UN Conference on the Human

Environment, Earth Summit

1992 Rio de Janeiro

UN Conference on the Human Environment,

Earth Summit

1972 Stockholm

UN Conference on Sustainable

Development


The United Na,ons Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm put environmental issues on the interna,onal agenda for the first ,me.

The Stockholm Conference, June 5-‐16, 1972 laid the groundwork for progress in the environment and development.

One important outcome from Stockholm was the crea,on of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

“Man is unlikely to succeed in managing his rela?onship with nature unless in the course of it he learns to manage beBer the rela?ons between man and man.” – Maurice Strong, Secretary-‐General of the Stockholm Conference

Declara?on of the UN Conference on the Human Environment hBp://www.unep.org/Documents.Mul?lingual/Default.asp?documen?d=97&ar?cleid=1503 Report of the UN Conference on the Human Environment hBp://www.unep.org/Documents.Mul?lingual/Default.asp?documen?d=97

Maurice Strong (leG) with Conference President Ingemund Bengtsson (Credit: UN Photo)


The first global gathering on sustainability was the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The Earth Summit – the United Na:ons Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) June 3-‐14 – produced Agenda 21, a blueprint to rethink economic growth, to advance social equity and to ensure environmental protec,on.

More than 178 Governments adopted: Agenda 21, the Rio Declara:on on Environment and Development, and the Statement of Principles for the Sustainable Management of Forests.

(Credit: UN)

Two important legally binding agreements were opened for signatures: the United Na:ons Framework Conven:on on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and, the Conven:on on Biological Diversity, to conserve biodiversity. The Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) was created to ensure effec:ve follow-‐up to the Summit.


Rio+20, the United Na,ons Conference on Sustainable Development June 20-‐21, 2012 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, was intended to set a global sustainability agenda for the coming decade .

Delegates from 183 countries, some of them represented by their presidents, vice-‐presidents, and premiers, along with more than 50,000 par,cipants from governments, the private sector, non-‐governmental organiza:ons (NGOs) and other groups agended.

The Conference was promoted as “The Future We Want.” Updates can be found at www.uncsd2012.org.


Steps taken?

Credit: Simon Tong si.smugmug.com/

Steps taken?

Problems solved?


40 years of trends

•  World popula:on

1972 3.8b, 1972 5.5b, 2012 7b

•  World CO2 emissions from fuel burning

1972 16.1b t, 1992 22.3b t, 2012 35.6b t

•  Atmospheric CO2 concentra:ons

1972 327ppm, 1992 356 ppm, 2012 394ppm

Some of the trends: loss of forest, CO2 concentra:on, species ex:nc:ons, motor vehicles, ozone deple:on, water use, paper use, Northern hemisphere average temperature, popula:on, global real GPD. 1750-‐2000

New Scien:st magazine, 16 October 2008, page 40-‐41

The planet crunch

If we do not change direc:on, we may end up where we are heading. Lao Tzu


Runaway climate change

One of many climate feedbacks is methane from thawing permafrost and sea-‐beds in the Arc:c. hgp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071025174618.htm

Image: Sergey Zimov

“Arc:c climate dynamics is now strongly non-‐linear behaviour consistent with feedback-‐driven amplifica:on of the underlying forcing from anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentra:ons.” hgp://www.apollo-‐gaia.org/Arc:c%20Dynamics.pdf


“…As Member States consider the processes leading up to 2015, they could be supported by a report of the Secretary-‐General during the main part of the sixty-‐ninth session of the General Assembly. This would draw upon the outcomes of the Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals, the Intergovernmental Commigee of Experts on Sustainable Development Financing and other bodies. The intergovernmental process could lead to an agreement on the vision, principles, goals and targets of the post-‐2015 development agenda, as well as on the renewed global partnership for development…”

Follow-‐up to the outcome of the Millennium Summit Item 118 of the provisional agenda A/68/150, Sixty-‐eighth session hgp://daccess-‐dds-‐ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N13/409/32/PDF/N1340932.pdf

vs “Poli:cal efforts to curb pollu:on, protect forests and avert climate change have proven totally inadequate.”

Achim Steiner, UNEP execu:ve director, Oct 2008

12

Institutional steps vs solutions


May we have another 40 years please?

1972 Stockholm conference; Rio+20 is Stockholm+40

The ‘solu:on space’ used for major global problems has solved none of them.

What now?

1.  Cross fingers and keep going?

2.  Rethink?


Why does it seem so hard?

You can’t solve today’s problems with the same thinking that causes them

John Cole http://emedia.thetimes-tribune.com

“…like picking up a tangled skein of wool; all the threads are interwoven -‐ everything leads to something else.”

First lady ‘Lady Bird’ Johnson 1970


“Divide each difficulty into as many parts as is possible and necessary to resolve it”

Déscartes 1637


None Complexity considered All

Non

e Ch

ange con

side

red All

Default zone: systema:c steps in subsystems

Complexity zone: explore

Chaos zone: “Avoid”

Scep:cs corner

Mapping the solu:on space 1 of 2

‘We need to advance in a managed way. We take one block at a :me. Otherwise we will produce chaos.’

video at 12:45 minshgp://www.environmentalgovernance.org/video/2010/05/quest-‐for-‐leadership/


None Complexity considered All

Non

e Ch

ange con

side

red All

Default zone: systema:c change In subsystems

Missing perspec:ve: systemic change in whole system

Default scep:c posi:on: no change

Mapping the solu:on space 2 of 2

Blindspot

Comfort zone

Extreme comfort zone


Subsystem and whole system approaches

Default: systema+c New: systemic

Focus on subsystems defined by topics (such as climate or food), sectors (such as energy or finance), ins:tu:ons or physical areas (such as a community or region).

Focus on whole system not subsystems.

Complexity is manageable as subsystems. Complexity is manageable as an indivisible whole.

Manage via reducing (disregarding) complexity.

Manage via the connectedness of complexity.

Progress as gradual incremental change along a linear trajectory.

Progress as change of paradigms (system states).


Switch from hopping to running

•  Subsystem and whole system methods are like feet. Best to use both.

•  ‘In the broader perspec:ve of the systems approach no problem can be solved simply on its own basis. Every problem has an environment, to which it is inextricably united.’ C West Churchman

•  Hence every subsystem has a global whole system to which it is inextricably united


1969: ‘What would be the true progress of man if hunger and war persists?’

The Guardian newspaper July 21st 1969

o  Food security involves solu:ons both within and beyond the food subsystem.

o  Na:onal security involves solu:ons both within and beyond the conflict subsystem.


Has food production gone ‘potty’?

This top soil was so impoverished it could be made into a clay pot.


The Guardian June 25th 1988

o  Climate instability is a symptom of a system. o  It’s a race between runaway change and an effec:ve systemic response. o  Responses so far are systema:c. Eg, ‘Let’s focus on carbon emissions.’ o  What would a systemic response do?

•  Cook by making charcoal rather than burning it

•  Grow food by building rather than deple:ng soils

•  Incen:ves to plant trees rather than cut them

•  Large scale carbon storage by small scale ini:a:ve

•  Localised money spent into economy for biochar/soils/food/trees. This adds to GDP.

Biochar – climate change in reverse

MIT Climate CoLab proposal hgp://bit.ly/pf4kX8

hgp://ow.ly/oJadI

hgp://ow.ly/oJaSy hgp://ow.ly/oJbo8 hgp://ow.ly/oJbvv

hgp://ow.ly/oJc2E


www.blindspot.org.uk 27 Credit: jfiddler.smugmug.com

Leverage connectedness Shift policy -> new direction -> makes new reality

“a small shiG in one thing can produce big changes in everything”

Donella Meadows, Leverage Points, 1999


Systems have pagerns of connectedness

“Systems can be understood by looking for pagerns within their complexity, pagerns that describe poten:al evolu:ons of the system.” Dooley, K. (1996), “A Nominal Defini:on of Complex Adap:ve Systems,” The Chaos Network, 8(1): 2-‐3. hgp://www.public.asu.edu/~kdooley/papers/casdef.PDF


Pagerns can reveal levers

•  Mechanisms for planet-‐scale self-‐organising systemic change

•  Lever = policy switch = worldview + ac:on

•  Change across issues, sectors and scales

•  Goals are not compromised but merged

•  Lever ‘working posi:ons’ are binary Eg Nature either shrinks or expands.

Products become waste or new resource.


NATO don’t just do bombing

NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme www.nato.int/science/�

Advanced Research Workshops Energy Security themes Seven Policy Switches for Global Security

hgp://blindspot.org.uk/seven-‐policy-‐switches/

‘Together the switches define a prac:cal strategy for global security, for a serious agempt at revival of co-‐opera:on, ecosystems and prosperity.’


How ambitious?

Default: reduce problem

New: reverse problems with net-positive impacts


We missed the bits about improving the environment…

Declara:on of the United Na:ons Conference on the Human Environment

June 1972

• PRINCIPLE 1. … a solemn responsibility to protect and improve the environment for present and future genera:ons.

• PRINCIPLE 2. The natural resources of the earth …must be safeguarded for the benefit of present and future genera:ons

• PRINCIPLE 3. The capacity of the earth to produce vital renewable resources must be maintained and, wherever prac:cable, restored or improved.

www.blindspot.org.uk 33 hgp://www.slideshare.net/jlagarde/


Less bad is not good enough

“The view that negative impacts are an inevitable consequence of development has blinded us to the obvious. We could design development to increase the size, health and resilience of natural systems, while improving human health and life quality.”

Janis Birkeland

Positive Development. Earthscan 2008 Economic tool for ‘positive development’ on page 339


BT

Our 2020 Net Good goal is to help customers reduce carbon emissions by at least three :mes the end-‐to-‐end carbon impact of our business.

BT Net Good

How do we learn?

Default: what we’re told

New: what we’re curious about

Credit: helenstoreyfounda:on.org/pro8.htm


hgp://www.slideshare.net/jlagarde/


How to handle resources?

Default: linear

New: circular


The default growth strategy is obsolete

“Total consump:on of resources will con:nue to increase as a result of economic growth… The G8 will seek to reduce waste, reuse and recycle resources and products to the extent economically feasible.”

3R Ac:on Plan Adopted at the G8 Sea Island Summit, June 10 2004

www.blindspot.org.uk 40 Nike Considered boot

Think Chair by Steelcase

gDiapers

Shaw carpet :le


Kenneth Boulding, 1966. Cowboy economy vs spaceship economy

United Na:ons ZERI, 1994. Zero emissions, “All waste is to be converted into value-‐added ingredients”.

Japan, 2000. Fundamental Law for Establishing a Sound Material-‐Cycle Society

Bill McDonough and Michael Braungart, 2002. Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things

China Na:onal Plan, 2006. “It is an urgent strategic task for China to vigorously develop the circular economy.”

Different language for the same goal


Precycling: circular economics in action

o  Everything can be precycled

o  Everyone precycles

o  System-‐wide precycling = sustainable development = Green economy

o  Avoids white-‐elephant investments

Image: Publicity by Berkeley City, California in 1989 www.ororkepr.com

Precycling is ac:on to ensure that resources won’t add to wastes in ecosystems.


A market-based tool can fix eco-externalities.

Expands ‘green economy’. Aligns economy with values.

Growth rises. Emissions fall. Ecosystems expand.

MIT Climate CoLab proposal: ‘Fix the system’, http://bit.ly/qpItP9


Life insurance for resources

Insurance is about risks:

o  Insurance avoids being financially wiped-‐out o  Can prevent disasters, like early fire insurance o  Can share risks, like car insurance

Precycling premiums are about preven:ng accumula:ve risks:

o  Extension of exis:ng ‘recycling insurance’ in EU WEEE Direc:ve

o  Premiums come from products at risk of becoming waste

o  Premiums go to green economy and society (precycling everything everywhere)


Credit: seeingtheforest.com

How to get security?

Default: us vs them insecurity

New: global security, tweak GDP to reverse the arms race


How to get on with the Earth?

Default: the Earth belongs to us

New: we belong to the Earth, Ownership to include guardianship


Doug and Kris Tompkins Credit: Sam Beebe, eo.wikipedia.org

How to use wealth?

Default: mega-rich: mega-problems

New: prompt sharing, fix problem stockpile

Credit: FreeDigitalPhotos.net

How to create money?

Default: banks create money as debt

New: create money publicly, end austerity


Seven policy switches for global security

1.  Development = Net-‐posi:ve impacts not less-‐bad

2.  Learning led by curiosity not programming

3.  Circular economy to build not consume the physical basis for economic growth

4.  Tweak GDP to reverse macro-‐incen:ves for militarisa:on of problem-‐solving

5.  Ownership to include guardianship. We belong to Earth.

6.  Stockpile of surplus wealth recruited into fixing the stockpile of problems

7.  Monetary liquidity supplied by public bodies not private banks


Thank you!

Let’s connect…

James Greyson @blindspotting @climate_rescue www.BlindSpot.org.uk

Design

BlindSpot Prince's Foundation net-positive circular economy