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Analysis of Growth and instability of Area, Production, productivity of Indian oilseeds
before, during Technology Mission and in recent years
PREM NARAYAN
Introduction
Oilseeds crop occupy 16 area and contributed 8.5 % production as compared to foodgrains 84% area and 91.5% production during the Triennium 2000-2002
Indian Oilseeds occupied 16% area and contributed 8% production total oilseeds of the world TE 1998-2000.
The crops like, Groundnut, Rapeseed-Mustard, Soybean, Sunflower , Safflower Linseed, Sesamum are edible oilseeds and Niger, Castor are growing as non edible oilseeds in India.
Oilseeds Area Production and productivity Area 10.07 million ha., production 5.22 million tons and
productivity 519 kg /ha during 1949-50 which has increased to 23.08 million ha. area, 20.50 million tonnes and productivity 883 /ha during TE 2001-2003.
Increase in area 2.3 times, production 3.9 times and productivity 1.7 times were increased during 5 decades .
Three major oilseed crops e.i. Groundnut and Rapeseed & mustard occupy 83% and contribute 84% production of total oilseeds in the country.
The country ranks first in the world in the production of castor, safflower sesame and niger; second in groundnut and rapeseed-mustard.
Edible oil consumption
Edible oil consumption is fast increasing the per capita annual consumption is 7.8 kg during 2000 and 8.8kg annual per capita during 2030 and country needs 8.33 MT in 2000 and 12.58 MT in 2030 (Paroda and Kumar 2000).
Recently demand has risen to almost 10 kg per capita annual due to increase per capita income.
At present India imports 60 percent edible oil of its total consumption. The import bills have increased upto Rs.12000 crore 2002-2003.
Analysis This study is based on the secondary time series data
on area, production and yield kg/ha of major oilseeds crops for the years 1972- 2003. We have analysed data for different period.
I Period of stagnation (1972 to 1986) II Period of Upsurge - Technology mission on
Oilseeds (1987 to 1991) III Re-emergence of stagnation - TMO effects
peterout - (1992-98) IV Period of deceleration (1999-2003)
Edible oil Production-A Continuing problem
I Period of stagnation (1972 to 1986) Oilseeds are growing mostly on marginal land and
rainfed area Severe insects -pests and diseases problems Less transfer technology facilities Very high seed cost, farmers can’t afford
particularly repeated sowing The stagnation due to very slow growth in area of
Groundnut 0.12, Rapeseed 1.37 and yield decelerated in Soybean-2.10 and Sunflower -3.59, which affected the total oilseed growth
Corporatization of farm services Contract farming The more area brought under oilseeds and also under
irrigation Production increased form 10.57 MT in 1985-86 to 18.60 MT
in 1991-92 Accelerated CAGR of Area , production , yield of
Rapeseed 9.10, 13.15, 3.63 , soybean 20.21, 29.18, 7.48 and sunflower 9.26, 23.62, 13.14 which increase the total oilseed 8.72, 8.92, 2.06
Import fallen drastically from 1.097 MT in 1984-85 to 0.1 MT in 1992-93
II Period of upsurge- Technology mission on oilseeds during 1987 to 1991
Reemergence of period of stagnation - TMO effect peterout during 1992 to 98 Complacency TMO became routine programme Other features of phase I continued Import started rising from 1.06 MT in 1995-96 to 2.62 MT
in 1998-99. The CAGR decelerated in area of groundnut -1.77 and
sunflower-3.72 , the similar in production of rapeseed -2.77, sunflower -8.25 and the yield of rapeseed -4.58, sunflower -4.71
Only Soybean CAGR of area 10.40, production 15.39 and yield 4.52 was accelerated
TMO effects further peter out Other features of phase I continued Weather aberrations high and wide spread and setback to
major oilseeds producing states Decelerated CRGR of Area , production , yield of Rapeseed-
3.14, -3.27, -0.13 , soybean -0.18, -2.25, -2.07, which affected the total oilseed ACGR A-0.38, P -0.85 And Y -0.47
Only sunflower A 12.23, P 15.75, and , Y 2.23 were accelerated ACGR
Area declined steeply Import gallop from 4.19 MT in 1999-00 to 5.11 MT in 2002-03
and about RS 10,000 crore annually
Period of Deceleration - 1998 to 2003
Growth of major oilseeds crop during different periods
1972-86 1987-91 1992-98 1999-03 Groundnut Area 0.12 4.56 -1.77 a 2.11 Prod 1.12 1.35 1.90 3.20 yield 1.00 -3.08 3.73 b 1.07b Rapeseed Area 1.37 a 9.19 a 1.89 b -3.14 Prod 3.65 a 13.15 a -2.77 -3.27 yield 2.25 b 3.63 c -4.58 -0.13 Soybean Area 32.08 a 20.21a 10.40 a -0.18 Prod 29.31 a 29.18 b 15.39 a -2.25 yield -2.10 b 7.46 4.52 c -2.07 Sunflower Area 11.79 a 9.26 -3.72 b 13.22c Prod 7.77 b 23.62c -8.25 b 15.75 b yield -3.59 a 13.14 b -4.71 2.23 Oilseeds Area 1.14 a 6.72 a 0.55 -0.38 Total Prod 2.70 a 8.92 c 2.55 b -0.85 yield 1.54 a 2.06 1.98 b -0.47
Note- Statically significant at 1% a, 5% b and 10% c
Instability of major oilseeds crop during different periods 1972-86 1987-91 1992-98 1999-03 Groundnut Area 2.74 9.51 3.72 11.77 prod 14.75 18.25 8.42 21.11 yield 13.02 13.15 8.11 17.88 Rapeseed Area 9.20 15.02 4.40 10.37 prod 22.43 20.51 12.14 18.18 yield 16.93 7.97 14.88 9.98 Soybean Area 92.22 29.23 15.66 3.78 prod
87.25 37.59 22.21 17.66 yield 17.25 19.52 7.20 16.07 Sunflower Area 73.90 26.43 7.70 25.19 prod 60.75 41.80 16.21 29.09 yield 18.27 21.84 10.37 6.38 Oilseeds Area 5.39 10.39 1.20 7.46 Total prod 15.45 15.55 6.57 14.94 yield 11.34 10.02 6.19 9.66
CAGR and instability of Groundnut
CAGR OF Groundnut
-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.00
year
Area Production yield
Instability in Groundnut
05
10152025
year
Area Production yield
CAGR and instability of Rapeseed and Mustard
CAGR of Rape seed and mustard
-10-505
1015
year
Area Production yieldInstability in Rapeseed
05
10152025
year
Area Production yield
CAGR and instability of Soybean
CAGR of Soybean
-100
10203040
year
Area Production yield
Instability of Soybean
020406080
100
year
Area Production yield
CAGR and instability of Sunflower
CAGR of Sunflower
-10
0
10
20
30
year
Area Production yield
Instability in sunflower
0
20
40
60
80
Year
Area Production yield
CAGR and instability of Total Oilseeds
ACGR of total oilseeds
-5
0
5
10
year
Area Production yieldInstability of total oilseed
0
5
10
15
20
year
Area Production yield
The situation of major oilseeds crops in India and World
Crops Name World India Country-wise Ist position Area Prod. Area Prod. Area Prod. Soybean71.99 I 159.20I 5.99 III 6.31 II USA USA R&mustard 26.54 II 39.06 II 6.50 II 5.53 III China Canada Groundnut 23.73III 32.52 III 7.20 I 7.01 I India China Sunflower 22.17 IV 26.88 IV 1.90 V 1.12 IV Argtina Argtina Sesame 7.15 V 2.66 V 1.97 IV 0.59 V India India Linseed 3.36 2.68 0.80 0.26 India Canada Safflower 1.15 0.93 .071 0.60 India China Castor 1.20 1.18 0.65 0.82 India India Total 157.32 265.13 25.76 22.27
Area of different oilseeds crops during TE 2000 in India
Soybeen23% Rapseed
25%
Groundnut28%
linseed3%
safflower3%
Sunflowwer7%
Seaseme8%
castor3%
Production of different oilseeds crops in India during TE 2000
Groundnut31%
Rapseed25%
safflower3% linseed
1%
castor4%
Soybeen28%
Sunflowwer5%
Seaseme3%
Oilseeds Area , Production and productivity Year Area in Prod in Yield Irrigated M. ha. M. tons Kg/ha. Area(%) 1970-72 16.57 8.62 519.00 7.43 1973-75 17.04 9.72 570.33 8.63 1976-78 17.12 9.40 548.33 9.67 1978-81 17.82 10.06 562.33 14.17 1982-84 18.46 11.88 642.00 17.40 1985-87 19.26 11.58 601.33 18.60 1988-90 22.95 17.85 779.00 22.43 1991-93 26.01 20.07 771.67 24.13 1994-96 25.87 22.61 873.33 25.77 1997-99 25.57 22.31 872.00 NA 2000-02 22.50 18.46 818.21 NA
Trend of Oilseeds Area and Production
17.0
4
17.1
2
17.8
2
18.4
6
19.2
6
22.9
5
26.0
1
25.8
7
25.5
7
22.5
0
16.5
7
9.728.62 9.40 10
.06
11.8
8
11.5
8 17.8
5
20.0
7
22.6
1
22.3
1
18.4
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Year
In m
illio
nArea in million ha. Production in million tonnes
Trend of Oilseeds Productivity from 1970 to 2000-02
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
1970
-72
1973
-75
1976
-78
1978
-81
1982
-84
1985
-87
1988
-90
1991
-93
1994
-96
1997
-99
2000
-02
Yield
Yiel
d Kg
/ha.
Actual Rainfall:percentage deviation from normal
Mat. Sub-stn. 1999 2000 2001 2002 Crop affected due to drought Coastal Karna. 1.64 -6.32 -5.88 -29.96 G,nut ,Sunflower, Sesamum East Rajasthan -12.66 -30.48 -17.43 -59.51 Soybean,Rape seed mustard Gujarat Region -24.15 -30.75 -10.11 -24.45 groundnut Sesamum Haryana,Punjab -24.6 -12.87 -6.43 -36.31 Rape seed Mustard Rayalseema -12.53 46.67 10.67 -33.16 Groundnut, Sesamum, , safflower Shautra and Kutch -57.9 -44.42 -8.61 -25.09 Groundnut, castor South Karnataka -9.01 21.46 -8.14 -44.37 Groundnut, Soybean,
Sesamum, safflower TN Pandicherry -36.45 1.55 -15.48 -45.28 Groundnut, Sesamum, castor Telangana region -6.56 21.98 -12.45 -22.90 Groundnut, Sunflower,Castor West MP 5.88 -35.21 -20.09 -22.14 Soybean, linseed, sesamum West Rajasthan -24.2 -21.51 -10.04 -70.75 Rape seed Mustard,sesamum All India -4.12 -7.77 -7.04 -20.58 Source : CMIE, Feb 2004
