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| | ² Climate Policy Group
New risks: trade-offs in switching from nuclear electricity to renewables in Switzerland.
National Research Programme (NRP- 70). Swiss National Science Foundation
13.04.15 1
Modeling the energy future of Switzerland after the phase out of nuclear power plants
Paula Díaz
Oscar van Vliet
| | ² Climate Policy Group
§ Introduction to Swiss electric system § Electricity mix in 2014 § Energy Strategy 2050
§ Calliope, a dispatch model of Switzerland § Main characteristics § Scenarios:
§ 2014 § 2035 § 2050
Index
| | ² Climate Policy Group
§ How can we keep lights on § Dispensing with Nuclear § Intermittent resources § Peaking and shortfalls
§ ‘How can we affordably minimise intermittency risks, given dispatch possibilities and potential (daily and seasonal) generation?’
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Aim
Paula Díaz
| | ² Climate Policy Group
13.04.15 4
Introduction to Swiss electric system: Electricity mix in 2014
§ Consumed § 56 000 GWh
§ Produced § 61 500 GWh
§ Imported: 28 000 GWh
§ Exported: 32 500 GWh
Source: Swissgrid (Energie Uebersicht 2014)
Paula Díaz
| | ² Climate Policy Group
§ Relevance of the ES205 à Phase out of Nuclear
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Introduction to Swiss electric system: Energy Strategy (ES2050)
Fossil central
Variant C
Fossil central &
REN
Variant C&E
REN &
Imports
Variant E
Paula Díaz
| | ² Climate Policy Group
§ Relevance of the ES205 à Phase out of Nuclear
§ Our objective à Study dispatch possibilities of the Swiss electric system that increases its share and imports of REN.
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Introduction to Swiss electric system: Energy Strategy (ES2050)
Fossil central
Variant C
Fossil central &
REN
Variant C&E
REN &
Imports
Variant E
Paula Díaz
| | ² Climate Policy Group
13.04.15 7
, a dispatch model of Switzerland
§ Complementarity with other frameworks: SAM
§ Hourly data: § RDA & JRC
§ Linear Open source modeling framework
Paula Díaz
Solar and wind resources. Source: Atlas der Schweiz, 2010 Pfenninger, 2015
S1
S2
S3
S4
| | ² Climate Policy Group
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Calliope dispatch model of Switzerland 2014
§ Calibration § Switzerland:
§ 2 main regions § Demand of 2014
§ Switzerland § Italy § France § Germany
Paula Díaz
| | ² Climate Policy Group 13.04.15 9
SPRING 2014 SUMMER 2014
AUTUMN 2014 WINTER 2014
| | ² Climate Policy Group
§ Variant E: § Reduction of electricity demand
(-12.6% per capita) § No electricity from nuclear § CHP will count for 90% of fossil
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Calliope dispatch model of Switzerland Scenario: 2035
Electricity demand per capita (1950-2050)
Source: ES2050. BFE
Production 69% respect to 2014
Paula Díaz
| | ² Climate Policy Group 13.04.15
First Name Name 11
SPRING 2035 SUMMER 2035
AUTUMN 2035 WINTER 2035
| | ² Climate Policy Group
§ Variant E: § Reduction of electricity demand
(-9.7% per capita) § No electricity from nuclear § CHP will count for 100% of
fossil § Production 85% respect to
2014
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Calliope dispatch model of Switzerland Scenario: 2050
Paula Díaz
| | ² Climate Policy Group
13.04.15 First Name Name 13
SPRING 2050 SUMMER 2050
AUTUMN 2050 WINTER 2050
| | ² Climate Policy Group
§ Detailed analysis of high time resolution § Even with high development of REN
§ Switzerland will have to rely on imports § The peak of demand at evening will not be covered by REN
§ The e-production of Switzerland will be highly decreased § Assure the dispatchability with 2 complementary
scenarios of renewable energy § CSP from Nord Africa § Wind from Nord Sea
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Outlook
Paula Díaz
| | ² Climate Policy Group
§ Thank you for your attention
Questions?
§ Paula Díaz [email protected]
13.04.15 15 Paula Díaz
