Heat planning for the Greater Copenhagen area

VARMEPLAN Hovedstaden


Heat Planning for the Greater Copenhagen area

Karsten Hedegaard, MSc Eng, PhD Ea Energy Analyses

ETSAP workshop, November 17, 2014


Agenda

• Background

• Modelling

– The Balmorel model

– Modelling the district heating system of the Greater Copenhagen area

• Analysis approach and Results

• Conclusions


Background

• Sustainable district heating is the goal – Environmentally - goal of CO2 neutrality already by

2025

– Economically

– Security of supply – biomass dependency

• Which district heating solutions should be chosen?

• CTR, HOFOR, and VEKS have carried out the project with Ea Energy Analyses as consultant


MODELLING

4


The Balmorel model (1)

• Optimization model – investments and operation

– minimises total system costs

• Sectors – Electricity, district heating

– Individual heating, industri, road transport

• Bottom-up model with detailed technology representation

• Geographical resolution: Countries, regions and areas

• Open source



• Deterministic

• Assumes perfect competition

• Time resolution flexible

• Computation time: minutes to days

• Linear programming – Economic dispatch problem

• Or Mixed Integer Programming – Unit commitment and

Economic dispatch problem



7

• Demands

• Variation profiles

• Existing/planned

capacities

• Resource limitations

• Fuel and CO2 prices

• Technology data

• Policies

• …

Output

Minimize costs

subject to

• Supply/demand balances

• Resource constraints

• Technology constraints

• Transmission constraints

• Policy targets

• …

Objective function &

constraints

• Investments in production,

storage and transmission

• Electricity & heat

generation

• Transmission

• Fuel consumption

• CO2 emissions

• Costs

• …

Input

Simplified illustration

Condensing

Extraction

Backpressure

Heat only boiler

Electric heating

Electricity storage

Heat storage

Intermittent electricity

generation


Wind integration

in East Canada and North-

East USA

District heating analysis

Analysis of geothermal heat in

DK

Heat Plan for Greater

Copenhagen

Danish Commission for climate

change: 100% Renewable

energy

+ many other projects

Transmission

interconnector study

Estonia

Energy scenarios 2030

and 2050 for Estonia

Wind power in Estonia

System adequacy in

Lithuania

Wind integration

in Heilongjiang

2050 Scenarios for

China

Post-Kyoto Energy

Scenarios

for the Baltic Sea Region

East African Power

Pool:

Regional Master Plan

update

An Energy Policy for

Mauritius

South Africa: Costs and

benefits of renewable

energy

Transmission lines and new

generation (hydro and coal)

West African Power Pool

See: www.eaea.dk/themes/111_theme_modelling_of_energy_systems.html for project description and reports

Balmorel modelling framework: selected studies


The Greater Copenhagen area today

: District heating grid model for the Greater

Copenhagen area (2025-2035)


APPROACH AND RESULTS

12


Analysis approach

Long term investment optimizations, 2050

socio-economic

Near term investment optimizations, 2020-2035

business-economic

Base load analysis

Assessment of local technology potentials

heat pumps, geothermal heating, solar thermal etc.

Attactive technologies, long term

Technology potentials

Attactive technologies, short term

Economically reasonable base load level

2035-scenarios defined and analyzed - Capacities defined - 3 different

development paths - Operation optimization


Long term investment optimization, socio-economic, 2050

14

EU wind

DK wind

EU wind

DK biomass

EU biomass

DK wind

EU biomass

DK biomass

Large heat pumps

Solar heating

Solid biomass, CHP

Green gas, CHP

Waste incineration, Boilers

Waste incineration, CHP

Excess heat from

production of biofuels

The Greater Copenhagen area Biomass/

waste CHP

key role

Heat pumps

and solar

thermal

when

biomass

limited in DK


Long term investment optimization, socio-economic, 2050

15

EU wind

DK wind

EU wind

DK biomass

EU biomass

DK wind

EU biomass

DK biomass

Large heat pumps

Solar heating

Solid biomass, CHP

Green gas, CHP

Waste incineration, Boilers

Waste incineration, CHP

Excess heat from

production of biofuels

The Greater Copenhagen area Biomass/

waste CHP

key role

Heat pumps

and solar

thermal

when

biomass

limited in DK

800-850

MW-heat


Scenarios set up for 2035

Reference Alternative 1 Alternative 2

MW-heat Reference Alternative 1 Alternative 2

Heat pumps and Geothermal

18 MW-heat 300 MW-heat Hereof heat pumps: 145 MW from industrial surplus heat, waste water and drinking water 80 MW from sea water Geothermal: 75 MW

600 MW-heat Hereof heat pumps: 145 MW from industrial surplus heat, waste water and drinking water 150 MW from sea water Geothermal: 305 MW

Solar thermal 0.5 PJ 1 PJ

Biomass & Waste CHP

≈ 2065 MW-heat ≈ 1730 MW-heat ≈ 1480 MW-heat


Heat generation in 2035

17

Peak load

Heat pumps and

geothermal heat

Solar thermal

Straw

Wood pellets

Wood chips

Biomass waste

Waste

Heat

genera

tion (

PJ)

Reference Alternative 1 Alternative 2


Business-economic costs and biomass consumption, 2035

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ref

ere

nce

Alt

ern

ativ

e 1

Alt

ern

ativ

e 2

Ref

ere

nce

Alt

ern

ativ

e 1

Alt

ern

ativ

e 2

Cost minimization Prioritization of heat pumpsand geothermal heat

Hea

t ge

ner

atio

n c

ost

s (M

DK

K/Y

ear)

Bio

mas

s co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

PJ)

Biomass consumption(PJ)

Heat generation costs(MDKK/year)


Conclusions

• Biomass and waste CHP will continue to play a key role in the district heating system of the Greater Copenhagen area

• However, technology diversification important to reduce biomass dependency

– Alternative 1 is considered an attractive scenario: CHP, heat pumps, geothermal, and solar thermal

• Local heat pump potentials are limited

19


• Billeder

Thank you for

your attention

Karsten Hedegaard, MSc Eng, PhD

Ea Energy Analyses

Copenhagen, Denmark

www.ea-energianalyse.dk/

Data & Analytics

Heat planning for the Greater Copenhagen area