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TheWorldin2025InsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussions25February2016 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram
TheWorldin2025Thisdocumentprovidesasummaryofwhatweheardfrommul0pleexpertvoicesaroundtheworld–onhowitischanging,whatisdrivingthischange,wherewillbetheimpactsandwhythesemayevolveoverthenextdecade.
FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram
thataccessesmul0pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeIerinformedands0mulateinnova0on.
LookingForwardsOrganisa0onsincreasinglywanttoiden0fyandunderstand
boththean0cipatedandunexpectedchangessothattheycanbebeIerpreparedforthefuture.
FutureAgenda1.0TopInsightsfor2020Fromthe2010program,52keyinsightsonthenextdecadeweresharedwidelyandhavebeenextensivelyusedbyorganisa0onsaroundtheworld.
FutureAgendabecametheworld’slargestopenforesightplaLorm.
FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin
25countries.FutureAgenda2.0hasdoubledtheface-to-faceinterac0onandsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.
FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS
FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS
FutureAgenda2.0TopicsThesecondversionoftheFutureAgendaprogramtookplace
during2015andhasbeenaddressing24topicsvia120eventsin45ci0esin35countriesinpartnershipwith50corehosts.
Ci0es
Educa0on
Learning
Transport
Collabora0on
Energy
Loyalty
Travel
Company
Faith
Payments
Water
Connec0vity
Food
Privacy
Wealth
Currency
Government
Resources
Work
Ageing
Data
Health
Trade
EightKeyThemesAcrossthemul0plediscussions,60emergingissuesaretouching
uponandconnec0ngwitheightunderlying,andinterwoven,themeswithdifferentemphasisindifferentcountries.Thesearedetailedbelow.
TheCertainOes
InterconnectedSystems
TheDataRevoluOon
UnequalAccess
OurHabitat
BeliefsandBelonging
PowerandInfluence
ChangingBusiness
EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul0plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec0onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmoreeffec0velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityoftheinforma0onthatflows.
ImbalancedPopulaOonGrowthAgrowingpopula0onaddsanotherbillionpeoplebutitisalsorapidlyageing:achildbornnextyearwilllive6monthslongerthanoneborntoday.Whilemigra0onhelpstorebalance,increasingdependencyra0oschallengemany.
KeyResourceConstraintsEconomic,physicalandpoli0calshortagesofkeyresourcesincreaseanddriveincreasingtensionbetweenandwithincountries.AsweexceedtheEarth’snaturalthresholds,foodandwaterreceiveasmuchfocusasoilandgas.
ShiUingPowerandInfluenceThecentreofgravityofeconomicpowercon0nuesshi_ingeastwards,backtowhereitwas200yearsago.Recentsuperpowersseektomoderatethepaceofchangebutthereali0esofpopula0onandresourceloca0onsareimmoveable.
AffordableHealthcareTheescala0ngcostofhealthcareisfurtherstressedbytheneedtosupporttheoldandthechronicallyill.Spending20%ofGDPonhealthcareisseenasunsustainablesoharddecisionsaretakenaroundbudgetsandpriori0es.
AirQualityRisingairpollu0oninmanyci0esiskillingpeopleandbecomesavisiblecatalystforchangingmind-setsandpoliciesacross
health,energy,transporta0onandurbandesign.
AutonomousVehiclesTheshi_tofullyautonomoustransportisanevolu0onviatruckplatoonsonhighwaysandsmallurbandeliverypods.Connectedcarscreatethenetworkandtestthetechnologiesfortheeventualrevolu0onarydriverlessexperience.
DeeperCollaboraOonPartnershipsshi_tobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra0sed,
mul0-partycollabora0ons.Compe0toralliancesandwiderpublicpar0cipa0ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe0ccollabora0on.
EnergyStorageStorage,andpar0cularlyelectricitystorage,isthemissingpieceintherenewablesjigsaw.Ifsolved,itcanenabletrulydistributedsolar
energyaswellasacceleratetheelectrifica0onofthetransportindustry.
FoodWaste30-50%ofourfoodiswastedeitherinthesupplychainorinconsump0onandcouldfeedanother3billion.Op0misingdistribu0onandstorageindevelopingcountriesandenablingbeIerconsumerinforma0oninotherscouldsolvethis.
IntraCityCollaboraOonIncreasingcompe00onbetweenci0esoverridesna0onalboundariesanddrives
change.TheycompetetoaIractthebestbutalsocollaboratetoavoidthedownsideofsuccess–over-crowding,under-resourcingandpollu0on.
OpenSupplyWebsTheshi_fromcentralisedproduc0ontodecentralisedmanufacturingdrivesmanytotakea‘smalleranddistributed’approach:globalsupplychainsarereplacedbymoreregional,consumer-orientatedsupplywebsandnetworks.
UrbanObesityMassurbanisa0on,reducedac0vityandpoordietsareaccelera0ngtheriseofobesity.Levelsofobesityinmostci0esaregrowingfastandtheassociatedhealthcareburdenwillsoonaccountfor5%ofglobalGDP.
DataOwnershipIndividualsrecognizethevalueoftheirdigitalshadows,privacyagentscurateclients’datasetswhilepersonaldatastoresgiveustransparentcontrolofourinforma0on:Weretainmoreownershipofourdataandopttoshareit.
EnhancedPerformanceWearedevelopingkeytechnologiesthatcouldintegratehumans
anddatatomakeussafer,moreinformedandpoten0allysuper-humaninperformance-butshouldwe?
EthicalMachinesAutoma0onspreadsbeyondtradingandmanagingsystemicrisk.Asweapproachtechnologysingularity,autonomousrobotsand
smarteralgorithmsmakeethicaljudgmentsthatimpactlifeordeath.
PrivacyRegulaOonThepushtowardsglobalstandards,protocolsandgreatertransparency
isafocusformanyna0onsdrivingproac0veregula0on,butotherschoosetoopt-outofinterna0onalagreementsandgotheirownway.
TheChangingNatureofPrivacyAsprivacyisapublicissue,moreinterna0onalframeworksseektogoverntheInternet,protectthevulnerableandsecurepersonaldata:Thebalancebetween
protec0on,security,privacyandpublicgoodisincreasinglypoli0cal.
TheValueofDataAsorganisa0onstrytoretainasmuchinforma0onabouttheircustomersaspossible,databecomesacurrencywithavalueandaprice.Ittherefore
requiresamarketplacewhereanythingthatisinforma0onisrepresented.
TruthandIllusionTheInternethasdemocra0sedknowledgeandchangedthenatureofwhowetrustandwhy.Asconfidenceinlargeorganisa0onsdeclinesthesearchfortrustworthy
alterna0vesevolves.Whatwebelieveischanginghowwebehave.
AccesstoTransportThewidespreadneedforindividualstotravelshortdistancesbecomesakeyfeatureofurbandesignandregenera0on.Plannersusetransport
infrastructuretoinfluencesocialchangeandlowercarbonliving.
CapitalismChallengeUnabletoshakeissueslikeinequality,capitalistsocie0esfacecriesforchange,structuralchallengesandtechnologyenabledfreedoms.Togetherthesere-write
therulesandproposeacollabora0velandscapeofallworkingtogether.
CaringforThoseLeUBehindAlthoughsignificantprogresshasbeenmadeposi0vechangehaslimitedreach.
Millionsofpeoplecon0nuetobele_behindfrommainsteamprogress-especiallytheyoung,thepoorandthosewhoaredisadvantaged
EducaOonRevoluOonBroaderaccesstoimprovededuca0onactsasamajorcatalystfor
empowerment,sustainedeconomicgrowth,overcominginequalityandreducingconflict.Weneedaneduca0onsystemfitforthedigitalrevolu0on.
MassEngagementAsthepublicvoicebecomeseasiertoaccessandhardertosuppress,leadersseektoengagetocreate,develop,secureandmaintainlegi0macyfortheir
ini0a0vesandpolicies–sofurtherreducingtheirhierarchicalpower.
Off-GridPeoplelivingoff-grid,byinequalityorchoice,canexacerbatesocietaldivisionorimproveprivacy,healthandwellbeing.Eitherway,doingsoprovidesfer0legroundforinnova0on.
RisingYouthUnemploymentWithunemploymentratesover50%insomena0ons,accesstoworkisarisingbarrier.EspeciallyacrossNorthAfrica,theMiddleEastandsouthernEurope,alostgenera0onof100myoungpeoplefailstogainfromglobalgrowth.
ShrinkingMiddleWhiletheglobalmiddleclassgrows,intheWestincreasinginequalityforsomedrivesarela0vedeclineinmiddle-incomepopula0ons.Coupledwith
theerosionofsecurejobs,theUSinpar0cularseesasteadilyshrinkingmiddle.
AcceleraOngDisplacementClimatechange,conflict,resourceshortages,inequalityandpoli0calelitesunableorunwillingtobringaboutnecessarychangealltriggerunprecedentedmigra0ontotheNorth.Overthenext50years,asmanyas1billionpeoplecouldbeonthemove.
BasicSanitaOonPoorsanita0oncon0nuestoimpactpublichealthandrestrictsocialprogress,
par0cularlyforwomen.Governmentsanddonororganisa0onspriori0semeasurement,educa0onandinnova0oninabidtodrivechange.
Built-inFlexibilityThepathtoaconnected,accessibleanddistributedinfrastructureisfraughtwithcomplex,costlyandriskyissues:Upgradingandrepurposingsystemstomakethemmoreopenpluson-goingmaintenanceneedsignificantresources.
CiOzen-CentricCiOesSuccessfulci0eswillbedesignedaroundtheneedsanddesiresofincreasinglyempoweredandenabledci0zens-whoareexpec0ngpersonalizedservicesfromtheorganisa0onsthatservethem.
FloodedCiOesThevastmajorityofourci0esarenotpreparedforflooding.Manydistrictsandhouseholdscannolongergetfloodinsuranceandareinjeopardy.
It’sgoingtogetworsebeforeitgetsbeIer.
InfrastructureDeficitInfrastructureagainbecomesasourceofcompe00veadvantage.Emerging
economiesinvestinnewrailroadsandhighwaysformoreeffec0vemovementofpeopleandgoods,whiledevelopedna0onssufferfrompoorlegacy.
Nature’sCapitalIntheAnthropocene,humankindispresidingoverthe
Earth'ssixthmajorex0nc0on.Butasbiodiversitydeclines,naturebecomesincreasinglyvaluedandvaluable.
PlasOcOceansThereareincreasinghighlevelsofman-madepollu0oninmanyoftheworld’sseasandliIleactuallydisappears.
By2050therewillbemoreplas0cthanfishintheworld’soceans.
SomeOmesNomadsElec0vemigra0on,cheaptravel,interna0onalknowledgesharingand
increasinglytransientworkingmodelscreateconnectednomadswhomixthetradi0onsofhomewiththevaluesandcustomsoftheirhostloca0on.
AgelessnessAperson’sphysicalagebecomeslessimportantassocietyadaptstothenewdemographiclandscape.Newopportuni0esariseforcreatorsandconsumersofallages,thoughbenefitsareo_enonlyforthewealthy.
CareintheCommunityThedesireto‘age-in-place’meetsahealthcarereformagendathatpromotesdecentraliza0on.Anewcaremodeliscustomer-centric,caregiver-focusedandenhancescoordina0onacrosscaresehngs.
FemaleChoiceDilemmaWomeninrichereconomieshavegreaterchoice,andwithitincreased
controlandinfluence.Thiscon0nuestodrivechangeanddecision-makingbutgloballythebaIleforfemaleequalityhasalongroadtotravel.
HumanTouchAsserviceprovisionandconsump0onbecomesevermoredigital,automatedandalgorithmic,thosebrandsthatcanoffermoreemo0onalengagement
andhuman-to-humancontactbecomeincreasinglyaIrac0ve.
KeepingTheFaithAspeoplemovetheytaketheirbeliefswiththem.Formany,religionisoneofthefewremainingaspectsoftheirpreviouslife,keytotheiriden0ty-strongerthan
theci0zenshipoftheiradoptedcountryorthena0ontheyle_behind.
WorkingLongerPeoplearehavingtoworkforlongertosupportlongerre0rements.
Flexibleworkingprac0cesandpoliciesareemerging,butsomeemployerscon0nuetoremainambivalentaboutolderworkers.
AfricaGrowthWithalandmassbiggerthanIndia,China,theUSandEuropecombined,fewdoubtthescaleoftheAfricancon0nentanditsresources.However,un0l
recently,onlysomehaveseenitasthegrowthmarketthatitisfastbecoming.
CompanieswithPurposeAstrustin‘business’declines,structuresandprac0cesoflargecorpora0onsareunderscru0ny.Businessescomeundergreaterpressuretoimprove
performanceonenvironmental,socialandgovernanceissues.
DecliningGovernmentInfluenceNa0onalgovernments’abilitytoleadchangecomesundergreaterpressurefrombothaboveandbelow-mul0na0onalorganisa0onsincreasinglysettheruleswhileci0zenstrustandsupportlocalandnetworkbasedac0ons.
Eco-CivilisaOonOverthepast40yearsChinahasgrownapace,mostlywithoutconcernfor
long-termenvironmentalimpacts.However,nowfacedwithmajorchallenges,abrightlightofsustainabledevelopmentisemerging.
RiseofNimbyGlobalisa0onoftradeandtravel,withgeopoli0calshi_sfromNorthtoSouthand
fromWesttoEast,havedeliveredmanybenefitsforsome-butarecausingclashesofculturesandaperspec0veofpoli0calretrenchmentforothers.
RiseoftheCultofChinaAsChina’seconomicinfluenceontheworldincreasesthereisariseinthecultofChinainpopularimagina0onselsewhere.MythsofbothhopeandfearwillproliferateasChina’sculturalinfluenceincreases.
StandardsDrivingTradeInterna0onalregula0onisprogressivelyaimedatfreeinguptradeandmaking
itsimplerandlessbureaucra0c–butthereareanumberofagreements,standardsandprotocolsthatsomeareseeingasincreasinglyconstraining.
SOllBeingStupidDespiteabeIerunderstandingofthelong-termchallengesweface,
weindividuallyandcollec0velycon0nuetomakedecisionsthatmaymakesenseintheshort-term-butdonotleadtobeIerlonger-termconsequences.
CreaOveEconomyThecrea0veeconomyhelpstobuildinclusiveandsustainablecultures.What’smore,itgenerateswealth.Tobuildscaleitrequiresaworkforce
comfortablewithcollabora0on,cri0calthinkingandtheabilitytotakearisk.
CurrenciesofMeaningNewtrustedcurrenciesofexchangeandmeaningemergeto
facilitatetransac0ons,trade,authen0ca0onandvalida0on.MoneyiscomplementedbynewsystemstowhichweaIachgreatersignificance.
DigitalMoneyCashcon0nuestobegraduallyreplacedbydigitalmoney,providing
consumerswithmoreconvenienceandchoice–andorganisa0onswithlowercosttransac0ons.Wideradop0onenablesnewofferstoproliferate.
DynamicPricingThealgorithmsofAmazonandUbercrossovertoaffectmorebusinesses,
fromenergyusetoparking.Real-0metransparencyallowsbeIerpurchasingatthesame0measmarginsandyieldsareautoma0callyenhanced.
FullCostIncreasingtransparencyofsociety’srelianceonnature,intensify
requirementsforbusinesstopaythetruecostoftheresourcesprovidedby‘naturalcapital’andsocompensatefortheirnega0veimpactonsociety.
OpOmisingLastMileDeliverySeamless,integratedandsharedlast-miledeliveryreplacesinefficient
compe00onandduplica0onofgoodsdistribu0on.Greaterefficiencyinmovingthingsisasimportantasinmovingpeopleandsoamajorfocusforinnova0on.
OrganisaOon3.0NewformsofflaIer,project-based,collabora0ve,virtual,informal
organisa0onsdominate-enabledbytechnologyandamobileworkforce.Assuchthenatureofworkandtheroleoftheorganisa0onblurs.
SkillsConcentraOonsTheneedtobuildanddevelopcapabili0esbecomesincreasinglychallengingforcompaniesandworkersalike.Thosewhobenefitfromthehigh-skillrewardopportuni0esremainaselectgroupwhomoveaheadoftheurbanpack.
SpeedtoScaleGreaterglobalconnec0vity,growingconsumerwealthandbroaderreachallcombinetoacceleratethe0meto1bncustomersanda$10bnvalua0onforstart-upsandnewcorporateventuresalike.
TheRealSharingEconomyIncreasingcollabora0ondrivesorganisa0onstoreconfigurebasedonsocialnetworksandimpact.Realsharingenterprises,notdrivenbyprofits,seek
toshareresources,knowledge,anddecision-makingresponsibili0es.